ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Tim Harford - Economist, journalist, broadcaster
Tim Harford's writings reveal the economic ideas behind everyday experiences.

Why you should listen

In the Undercover Economist column he writes for the Financial Times, Tim Harford looks at familiar situations in unfamiliar ways and explains the fundamental principles of the modern economy. He illuminates them with clear writing and a variety of examples borrowed from daily life.

His book, Adapt: Why Success Always Starts With Failure, argues that the world has become far too unpredictable and complex for today's challenges to be tackled with ready-made solutions and expert opinions. Instead, Harford suggests, we need to learn to embrace failure and to constantly adapt, to improvise rather than plan, to work from the bottom up rather than the top down. His next book, Messy: Thriving in a Tidy-Minded World will be published in September 2016. 

Harford also presents the BBC radio series More or Less, a rare broadcast program devoted, as he says, to "the powerful, sometimes beautiful, often abused but ever ubiquitous world of numbers."

He says: "I’d like to see many more complex problems approached with a willingness to experiment."

More profile about the speaker
Tim Harford | Speaker | TED.com
TEDGlobal>London

Tim Harford: How frustration can make us more creative

提姆.哈福特: 煩亂如何激發創意

Filmed:
3,929,150 views

不順己意的難題可能打亂你的創思過程,但它也能為你帶來前所未有的創意。在最暢銷鋼琴獨奏曲背後的一個驚喜故事中,提姆.哈福特或許能夠碰巧說服你:在工作中遇到小麻煩,也是有好處的。
- Economist, journalist, broadcaster
Tim Harford's writings reveal the economic ideas behind everyday experiences. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
Late晚了 in January一月 1975,
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1975年1月末,
00:15
a 17-year-old-歲 German德語 girl女孩
called Vera維拉 Brandes布蘭德斯
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一位名叫薇拉·布蘭德斯的
17歲德國女孩
00:19
walked out onto the stage階段
of the Cologne科隆 Opera歌劇 House.
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走上了科隆歌劇院的舞台。
00:24
The auditorium禮堂 was empty.
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觀眾席空無一人。
00:27
It was lit發光的 only by the dim暗淡, green綠色 glow輝光
of the emergency exit出口 sign標誌.
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黑暗的空間里,只有
緊急出口的綠色標誌亮著。
00:32
This was the most
exciting扣人心弦 day of Vera's維拉的 life.
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這是薇拉生命中最激動的時刻。
00:36
She was the youngest最年輕的
concert音樂會 promoter啟動 in Germany德國,
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她是德國最年輕的演奏會經紀人,
00:39
and she had persuaded說服了
the Cologne科隆 Opera歌劇 House
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她說服了科隆歌劇院
00:41
to host主辦 a late-night深夜 concert音樂會 of jazz爵士樂
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舉辦美國音樂家,
凱斯·傑瑞特的
00:45
from the American美國 musician音樂家, Keith基思 Jarrett賈勒特.
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晚間爵士樂演奏會。
00:48
1,400 people were coming未來.
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1400位聽眾即將到場。
00:51
And in just a few少數 hours小時,
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幾個小時後,
00:53
Jarrett賈勒特 would walk步行 out on the same相同 stage階段,
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傑瑞特就會走向這個舞台,
00:55
he'd他會 sit down at the piano鋼琴
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他坐在鋼琴邊
00:57
and without rehearsal排演 or sheet music音樂,
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無需綵排或是散頁樂譜,
01:01
he would begin開始 to play.
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他會開始演奏。
01:04
But right now,
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但現在,
01:05
Vera維拉 was introducing引入 Keith基思
to the piano鋼琴 in question,
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薇拉向凱斯展示的鋼琴
出了些問題,
01:09
and it wasn't going well.
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事情進展不順利。
01:11
Jarrett賈勒特 looked看著 to the instrument儀器
a little warily翼翼,
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傑瑞特謹慎地看著樂器,
01:13
played發揮 a few少數 notes筆記,
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彈奏了幾個小片段,
01:15
walked around it,
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繞著它轉了轉,
01:16
played發揮 a few少數 more notes筆記,
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又彈奏了幾個小片段,
01:18
muttered喃喃 something to his producer製片人.
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跟他的製作人嘟囔了些什麼。
01:19
Then the producer製片人
came來了 over to Vera維拉 and said ...
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製作人走到薇拉跟前說到 ...
01:24
"If you don't get a new piano鋼琴,
Keith基思 can't play."
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“如果沒有辦法送來一台新鋼琴,
凱斯會取消演奏。”
01:30
There'd這紅色 been a mistake錯誤.
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一定發生了錯誤。
01:31
The opera歌劇 house had provided提供
the wrong錯誤 instrument儀器.
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歌劇院提供了錯誤的樂器。
01:33
This one had this harsh苛刻,
tinny尖細 upper register寄存器,
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這台鋼琴的高音部
劣質而且刺耳,
01:36
because all the felt had worn磨損的 away.
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因為鋼琴內部的毛氈磨損嚴重。
01:39
The black黑色 notes筆記 were sticking癥結,
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黑鍵粘粘的,
01:42
the white白色 notes筆記 were out of tune調,
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白鍵走調了。
01:44
the pedals踏板 didn't work
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踏板無法使用
01:46
and the piano鋼琴 itself本身 was just too small.
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鋼琴的個頭也太小了。
01:48
It wouldn't不會 create創建 the volume
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它無法發出
01:50
that would fill a large space空間
such這樣 as the Cologne科隆 Opera歌劇 House.
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能夠填滿科隆歌劇院這樣
寬敞空間的聲音。
01:54
So Keith基思 Jarrett賈勒特 left.
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於是凱斯·傑瑞特離開了。
01:58
He went and satSAT outside in his car汽車,
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他站在他的車邊,
02:01
leaving離開 Vera維拉 Brandes布蘭德斯
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留下薇拉·布蘭德斯
02:03
to get on the phone電話
to try to find a replacement替代 piano鋼琴.
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撥打電話試圖尋找
一台能夠替代的鋼琴。
02:07
Now she got a piano鋼琴 tuner調諧器,
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她找到了一個鋼琴調律師,
02:09
but she couldn't不能 get a new piano鋼琴.
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但她無法拿到新的鋼琴。
02:12
And so she went outside
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她走到外面
02:14
and she stood站在 there in the rain,
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站在雨中,
02:17
talking to Keith基思 Jarrett賈勒特,
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和凱斯·傑瑞特說話,
02:20
begging乞討 him not to cancel取消 the concert音樂會.
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拜託他不要取消演奏會。
02:24
And he looked看著 out of his car汽車
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他看著車外
02:25
at this bedraggled荒廢,
rain-drenched雨淋 German德語 teenager青少年,
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這個被雨淋著渾身濕透的
德國年輕人,
02:30
took pity可憐 on her,
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有些同情,
02:32
and said,
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隨後說道,
02:33
"Never forget忘記 ... only for you."
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“永遠別忘了...只是為了你。”
02:39
And so a few少數 hours小時 later後來,
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幾小時后,
02:40
Jarrett賈勒特 did indeed確實 step out
onto the stage階段 of the opera歌劇 house,
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傑瑞特走上了
歌劇院的舞台,
02:45
he satSAT down at the unplayable無法播放 piano鋼琴
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他坐在這台
無法達到演奏標準的鋼琴面前
02:49
and began開始.
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開始了。
02:51
(Music音樂)
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(音樂)
03:04
Within moments瞬間 it became成為 clear明確
that something magical神奇 was happening事件.
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很快就發現
奇蹟正在發生。
03:10
Jarrett賈勒特 was avoiding避免
those upper registers寄存器,
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傑瑞特避免了高音區,
03:12
he was sticking癥結 to the middle中間
tones of the keyboard鍵盤,
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他專注在鍵盤的中間區域,
03:15
which哪一個 gave the piece
a soothing撫慰的, ambient周圍 quality質量.
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這給了曲子一個舒緩,
音效環繞的品質。
03:19
But also, because the piano鋼琴 was so quiet安靜,
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但同時,因為鋼琴如此平靜,
03:22
he had to set up these rumbling隆隆,
repetitive重複 riffs即興 in the bass低音.
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他必須在低音區製造
重複出現的隆隆聲。
03:26
And he stood站在 up twisting盤曲,
pounding重擊 down on the keys按鍵,
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他站起身旋轉,重擊琴鍵,
03:32
desperately拼命 trying to create創建 enough足夠 volume
to reach達到 the people in the back row.
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拼命地想製造足夠的音量
讓後排的觀眾也能聽到。
03:37
It's an electrifying通電 performance性能.
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這是個令人興奮地演出。
03:39
It somehow不知何故 has this peaceful平靜的 quality質量,
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卻有著這樣平靜的質感,
03:42
and at the same相同 time it's full充分 of energy能源,
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同時又飽含能量,
03:44
it's dynamic動態.
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富有活力,
03:47
And the audience聽眾 loved喜愛 it.
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聽眾太愛這場演出了。
03:49
Audiences觀眾 continue繼續 to love it
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聽眾持續保有熱情
03:51
because the recording記錄 of the KölnLN Concert音樂會
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因為科隆演奏會的錄音
03:54
is the best-selling最暢銷 piano鋼琴 album專輯 in history歷史
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是歷史上最暢銷的鋼琴專輯
03:56
and the best-selling最暢銷
solo獨奏 jazz爵士樂 album專輯 in history歷史.
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也是歷史上最暢銷的個人爵士專輯。
04:02
Keith基思 Jarrett賈勒特 had been handed a mess食堂.
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凱斯·傑瑞特遇到了一個麻煩。
04:06
He had embraced擁抱 that mess食堂, and it soared飆升.
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他包容了這個麻煩,
讓麻煩變成了崛起的創意。
04:12
But let's think for a moment時刻
about Jarrett's賈勒特的 initial初始 instinct直覺.
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但是,讓我們想一想
傑瑞特最初的反應。
04:17
He didn't want to play.
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他不想演出了。
04:18
Of course課程,
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當然,
04:20
I think any of us,
in any remotely遠程 similar類似 situation情況,
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我想我們中的每個人,
在任何相似的情況下,
04:23
would feel the same相同 way,
we'd星期三 have the same相同 instinct直覺.
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會有同樣的感受,
我們會有同樣的反應。
04:25
We don't want to be asked
to do good work with bad tools工具.
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我們不想被要求
用糟糕的工具做好工作。
04:29
We don't want to have to overcome克服
unnecessary不必要 hurdles障礙.
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我們不想克服不必要的麻煩。
04:34
But Jarrett's賈勒特的 instinct直覺 was wrong錯誤,
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但是傑瑞特的直覺錯了,
04:37
and thank goodness善良 he changed his mind心神.
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感謝上帝他改變了主意。
04:39
And I think our instinct直覺 is also wrong錯誤.
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我想我們的直覺也是錯的。
04:44
I think we need to gain獲得
a bit more appreciation升值
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我想我們需要更多的感激
04:48
for the unexpected意外 advantages優點
of having to cope應付 with a little mess食堂.
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那些需要面對小麻煩的
出人意料的優勢。
04:55
So let me give you some examples例子
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讓我給你們提供一些例子
04:57
from cognitive認知 psychology心理學,
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來自認知心理學
05:00
from complexity複雜 science科學,
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來自複雜性科學,
05:01
from social社會 psychology心理學,
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來自社會心理學,
05:03
and of course課程, rock 'n''N' roll.
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以及當然,搖滾樂。
05:05
So cognitive認知 psychology心理學 first.
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首先,認知心理學。
05:07
We've我們已經 actually其實 known已知 for a while
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長久以來我們知道
05:09
that certain某些 kinds of difficulty困難,
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某些困難,
05:11
certain某些 kinds of obstacle障礙,
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某些障礙,
05:13
can actually其實 improve提高 our performance性能.
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能夠促使我們提高表現力。
05:15
For example,
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比如,
05:17
the psychologist心理學家 Daniel丹尼爾 Oppenheimer奧本海默,
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心理學家丹尼爾·奧本海默,
05:18
a few少數 years年份 ago,
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數年前,
05:20
teamed聯手 up with high school學校 teachers教師.
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與高中老師合作。
05:22
And he asked them to reformat格式化 the handouts講義
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他請他們革新
05:24
that they were giving
to some of their classes.
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正在上課的一些講義。
05:28
So the regular定期 handout講義 would be formatted格式化
in something straightforward直截了當,
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普通的教案已一種
很直接的方式,
05:31
such這樣 as Helvetica黑體 or Times New Roman羅馬.
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像是赫維提卡字體
或是新羅馬體。
05:34
But half these classes were getting得到
handouts講義 that were formatted格式化
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但是超半數的學生會拿到
標準的講義
05:37
in something sort分類 of intense激烈,
like HaettenschweilerHaettenschweiler,
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用一種加深顏色的嚴肅字體,
像是Haettenschweiler,
05:41
or something with a zesty燦爛 bounce彈跳,
like Comic滑稽 SansSANS italicized斜體.
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或者是增添興趣的字體,
像是斜體的Comic Sans。
05:45
Now, these are really ugly醜陋 fonts字體,
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現在,這些事很醜的字體,
05:47
and they're difficult fonts字體 to read.
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也很難閱讀。
05:49
But at the end結束 of the semester學期,
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但在學期末,
05:51
students學生們 were given特定 exams考試,
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學生們進行了測試,
05:54
and the students學生們 who'd誰願意 been asked
to read the more difficult fonts字體,
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那些被要求閱讀
更加難懂的字體的學生,
05:58
had actually其實 doneDONE better on their exams考試,
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事實上在考試中表現更好,
06:00
in a variety品種 of subjects主題.
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很多學科都是這樣。
06:01
And the reason原因 is,
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原因是,
06:03
the difficult font字形 had slowed放緩 them down,
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難懂的字體拖慢了他們的速度,
06:06
forced被迫 them to work a bit harder更難,
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逼迫他們更加努力學習,
06:08
to think a bit more
about what they were reading,
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更審慎思考他們所讀的內容,
06:11
to interpret it ...
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來解讀它 ...
06:13
and so they learned學到了 more.
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因此他們學到了更多。
06:16
Another另一個 example.
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另一個例子。
06:18
The psychologist心理學家 Shelley雪萊 Carson卡森
has been testing測試 Harvard哈佛 undergraduates本科生
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心理學家謝麗·卡森
給哈佛大學的大學生做測試
06:23
for the quality質量
of their attentional注意力 filters過濾器.
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來研究他們的專注力的過濾能力。
06:26
What do I mean by that?
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那是什麼意思呢?
06:28
What I mean is,
imagine想像 you're in a restaurant餐廳,
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我是說,
想像你在一間餐廳裡,
06:30
you're having a conversation會話,
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你正在進行一場對話,
06:32
there are all kinds of other conversations對話
going on in the restaurant餐廳,
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餐廳裡還有很多別的
正在進行中的對話,
06:35
you want to filter過濾 them out,
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你會過濾它們,
06:36
you want to focus焦點
on what's important重要 to you.
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你想要專注於對你來說重要的對話。
06:38
Can you do that?
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你能做到嗎?
06:40
If you can, you have
good, strong強大 attentional注意力 filters過濾器.
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如果你能,那說明你有
很好地很強的注意力過濾能力。
06:43
But some people really struggle鬥爭 with that.
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但是很多人真的在
為這樣的能力奮鬥著。
06:45
Some of Carson's卡森的 undergraduate大學本科
subjects主題 struggled掙扎 with that.
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卡森測試的一部分大學生
就為這樣的能力掙扎。
06:49
They had weak filters過濾器,
they had porous多孔 filters過濾器 --
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他們有較弱的過濾能力,
他們的過濾機制有漏洞﹣﹣
06:52
let a lot of external外部 information信息 in.
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讓很多外部的資訊進入。
06:55
And so what that meant意味著 is they were
constantly經常 being存在 interrupted間斷
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那就意味著,
他們時常被干擾
06:58
by the sights景點 and the sounds聲音
of the world世界 around them.
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被周圍的畫面和聲音干擾。
07:01
If there was a television電視 on
while they were doing their essays隨筆,
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如果他們在寫作的時候
旁邊有一台正在播放的電視機,
07:04
they couldn't不能 screen屏幕 it out.
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他們無法把電視機的干擾過濾出去。
07:05
Now, you would think
that that was a disadvantage壞處 ...
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現在,你會想
這是個劣勢 ...
07:09
but no.
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但不是這樣的。
07:10
When Carson卡森 looked看著 at what
these students學生們 had achieved實現,
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當卡森查看這些學生的表現時,
07:14
the ones那些 with the weak filters過濾器
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那些過濾能力弱的
07:16
were vastly大大 more likely容易
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極大程度上更可能
07:18
to have some real真實
creative創作的 milestone里程碑 in their lives生活,
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在他們的人生中
創作出真正的里程碑,
07:21
to have published發表 their first novel小說,
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出版他們的第一本小說,
07:24
to have released發布 their first album專輯.
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發第一張唱片,
07:27
These distractions分心 were actually其實
gristsgrists to their creative創作的 mill.
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這些外部的干擾真正
引發了他們的創意工廠。
07:30
They were able能夠 to think outside the box
because their box was full充分 of holes.
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他們因此能夠跳出盒子思考問題
因為他們的盒子上全是小洞。
07:36
Let's talk about complexity複雜 science科學.
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讓我們來說說複雜性科學。
07:37
So how do you solve解決 a really complex複雜 --
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你是如何解決一個真正複雜問題的--
07:39
the world's世界 full充分
of complicated複雜 problems問題 --
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這個世界充滿了複雜的問題 --
07:41
how do you solve解決
a really complicated複雜 problem問題?
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你要如何解決一個真正複雜的問題?
07:44
For example, you try to make a jet噴射 engine發動機.
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比如,你要試圖製造飛機引擎,
07:46
There are lots and lots
of different不同 variables變量,
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面對很多很多不同的變量、
07:48
the operating操作 temperature溫度, the materials物料,
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運作溫度、材料、
07:50
all the different不同 dimensions尺寸, the shape形狀.
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所有不同的維度、形狀。
07:52
You can't solve解決 that kind
of problem問題 all in one go,
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你無法一次性解決所有的問題,
07:55
it's too hard.
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這太艱難了。
07:56
So what do you do?
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你要怎麼做呢?
07:57
Well, one thing you can do
is try to solve解決 it step-by-step一步步.
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你能做的
是試圖一步步解決它。
08:02
So you have some kind of prototype原型
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你有了初樣
08:04
and you tweak it,
you test測試 it, you improve提高 it.
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然後你改進它,
實驗,然後提高它的質量。
08:08
You tweak it, you test測試 it, you improve提高 it.
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再改進,實驗,提高質量。
08:12
Now, this idea理念 of marginal邊緣 gains收益
will eventually終於 get you a good jet噴射 engine發動機.
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這樣的邊際增益的概念最終能
讓你完成一個性能優良的飛機引擎,
08:17
And it's been quite相當 widely廣泛
implemented實施 in the world世界.
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這樣的做事方式在世界上很常見。
08:20
So you'll你會 hear about it, for example,
in high performance性能 cycling循環,
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你會在比如說,高強度自行車
運動練習中見到這樣的過程,
08:24
web捲筒紙 designers設計師 will talk about trying
to optimize優化 their web捲筒紙 pages網頁,
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網頁設計師會討論
試圖優化他們的網站,
08:27
they're looking
for these step-by-step一步步 gains收益.
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他們都在尋找著
這樣一步步的收穫。
08:30
That's a good way
to solve解決 a complicated複雜 problem問題.
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這是一個解決複雜問題的好方法。
08:34
But you know what would
make it a better way?
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但你知道有什麼
能夠讓它更好嗎?
08:38
A dash短跑 of mess食堂.
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一些雜亂。
08:41
You add randomness隨機性,
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你在過程開始的時候,
08:43
early on in the process處理,
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加入不確定性,
08:44
you make crazy moves移動,
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你做出瘋狂的舉動,
08:46
you try stupid things that shouldn't不能 work,
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你做本不可能成功地蠢事,
08:49
and that will tend趨向 to make
the problem-solving解決問題 work better.
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這都會使問題解決方法效果更好,
08:52
And the reason原因 for that is
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原因是
08:54
the trouble麻煩 with the step-by-step一步步 process處理,
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一步一步的過程的問題在於,
08:56
the marginal邊緣 gains收益,
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邊際增益,
08:57
is they can walk步行 you
gradually逐漸 down a dead end結束.
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是它們引導你走到死胡同。
09:01
And if you start開始 with the randomness隨機性,
that becomes less likely容易,
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如果你開始就很隨意,
那就不大會這樣,
09:05
and your problem-solving解決問題
becomes more robust強大的.
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你的問題解決過程會更加高效。
09:10
Let's talk about social社會 psychology心理學.
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讓我們從社會心理學角度分析。
09:12
So the psychologist心理學家 Katherine凱瑟琳 Phillips菲利普斯,
with some colleagues同事,
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心理學家凱瑟琳.飛利浦
和她的同事們,
09:15
recently最近 gave murder謀殺 mystery神秘
problems問題 to some students學生們,
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近期向學生們
提出了怪誕的的謀殺問題,
09:19
and these students學生們
were collected in groups of four
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這些學生編成四人一組
09:22
and they were given特定 dossiers檔案
with information信息 about a crime犯罪 --
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學生們拿到關於謀殺的檔案﹣﹣
09:26
alibis藉口 and evidence證據,
witness見證 statements聲明 and three suspects犯罪嫌疑人.
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不在場證明和證據、
證人的證詞和三個疑犯。
09:31
And the groups of four students學生們
were asked to figure數字 out who did it,
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他們需要找出真兇是誰,
09:35
who committed提交 the crime犯罪.
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誰為這場謀殺負責。
09:37
And there were two treatments治療
in this experiment實驗.
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這項實驗有兩個項目。
09:40
In some cases these were four friends朋友,
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在一些案例中,有四個友人,
09:44
they all knew知道 each other well.
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他們都非常了解對方。
09:46
In other cases,
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在另一些案例中,
09:47
three friends朋友 and a stranger陌生人.
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是三個友人和一個陌生人。
09:51
And you can see where I'm going with this.
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一會兒你就會了解到
我這麼做的意義。
09:53
Obviously明顯 I'm going to say
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很明顯,我要說的是
09:54
that the groups with the stranger陌生人
solved解決了 the problem問題 more effectively有效,
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那些由三個友人一個陌生人組成的小組
更高效地解決了問題,
09:57
which哪一個 is true真正, they did.
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這是真的,他們確實做到了。
09:59
Actually其實, they solved解決了 the problem問題
quite相當 a lot more effectively有效.
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事實上,他們解決問題的效率
非常高。
10:03
So the groups of four friends朋友,
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那些由四個友人組成的小組,
10:07
they only had a 50-50 chance機會
of getting得到 the answer回答 right.
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他們只有50﹣50的幾率
來得出正確答案。
10:10
Which哪一個 is actually其實 not that great --
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這聽起來確實不那麼好﹣﹣
10:11
in multiple choice選擇, for three answers答案?
50-50's not good.
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在多項選擇中,有三個答案?
50﹣50的幾率不那麼好。
10:14
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
10:16
The three friends朋友 and the stranger陌生人,
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三個友人和一個陌生人,
10:17
even though雖然 the stranger陌生人
didn't have any extra額外 information信息,
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即使陌生人沒有獲得額外的資訊,
10:20
even though雖然 it was just a case案件
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即使是在
10:22
of how that changed the conversation會話
to accommodate容納 that awkwardness重倉股,
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如何對話以防止尷尬,
10:28
the three friends朋友 and the stranger陌生人,
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三個友人和一個陌生人的組合,
10:30
they had a 75 percent百分 chance機會
of finding發現 the right answer回答.
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有 75% 的機會能夠找到正確的答案。
10:32
That's quite相當 a big leap飛躍 in performance性能.
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那是一個很大的飛越。
10:34
But I think what's really interesting有趣
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但我覺得真正有趣的
10:36
is not just that the three friends朋友
and the stranger陌生人 did a better job工作,
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不是三個友人和一個陌生人的組合
完成得更好,
10:40
but how they felt about it.
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而是他們對這次活動的感受。
10:42
So when Katherine凱瑟琳 Phillips菲利普斯
interviewed採訪 the groups of four friends朋友,
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當凱瑟琳.飛利浦詢問
四個友人組合的感受時,
10:47
they had a nice不錯 time,
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他們相處很愉悅,
10:49
they also thought they'd他們會 doneDONE a good job工作.
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他們也認為自己做得很好。
10:52
They were complacent自滿.
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他們很滿足。
10:54
When she spoke to the three
friends朋友 and the stranger陌生人,
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當她詢問
三個友人一個陌生人組合時
10:57
they had not had a nice不錯 time --
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他們並沒有很愉快﹣﹣
10:58
it's actually其實 rather difficult,
it's rather awkward尷尬 ...
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有點兒困難,
有些尷尬 ...
11:02
and they were full充分 of doubt懷疑.
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他們充滿了疑慮。
11:06
They didn't think they'd他們會 doneDONE a good job工作
even though雖然 they had.
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他們不認為自己完成得很好
即使他們確實完成得很好。
11:10
And I think that really exemplifies例證了
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我想這個例子很適合
11:11
the challenge挑戰 that we're
dealing交易 with here.
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拿來討論今天我們面對的難題。
11:14
Because, yeah --
228
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因為,是的﹣﹣
11:16
the ugly醜陋 font字形,
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難看的字體,
11:18
the awkward尷尬 stranger陌生人,
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尷尬的陌生人,
11:20
the random隨機 move移動 ...
231
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那些不確定性 ...
11:22
these disruptions中斷 help us solve解決 problems問題,
232
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這些打擾我們的事情
幫助我們解決問題,
11:25
they help us become成為 more creative創作的.
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它們讓我們更加有創意。
11:28
But we don't feel that they're helping幫助 us.
234
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但我們感受不到它們的幫助。
11:30
We feel that they're
getting得到 in the way ...
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我們認為它們是
路上的障礙 ...
11:33
and so we resist.
236
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所以我們反抗。
11:36
And that's why the last example
is really important重要.
237
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這就是為什麼最後一個例子
非常重要。
11:39
So I want to talk about somebody
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我想要談到某個人
11:41
from the background背景
of the world世界 of rock 'n''N' roll.
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他的背景是搖滾樂。
11:46
And you may可能 know him,
he's actually其實 a TED-sterTED-STER.
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你也許知道他是誰,
他是一個 TED 迷。
11:49
His name名稱 is Brian布賴恩 Eno伊諾.
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他的名字是布萊恩.伊諾。
11:50
He is an ambient周圍 composer作曲家 --
rather brilliant輝煌.
242
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他是一個著名音樂製作人﹣﹣
非常傑出。
11:53
He's also a kind of catalyst催化劑
243
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他同時也是一種催化劑
11:57
behind背後 some of the great
rock 'n''N' roll albums專輯 of the last 40 years年份.
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催化了過去 40 年裡
很多搖滾巨作的產生。
12:01
He's worked工作 with David大衛 Bowie鮑伊 on "Heroes英雄,"
245
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他和大衛.鮑伊合作歌曲《Heroes》,
12:04
he worked工作 with U2 on "AchtungACHTUNG Baby寶寶"
and "The Joshua約書亞 Tree,"
246
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他和 U2 合作歌曲《Achtung Baby》
和《The Joshua Tree》,
12:08
he's worked工作 with DEVODEVO,
247
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他和 DEVO 合作,
12:09
he's worked工作 with Coldplay酷玩樂隊,
he's worked工作 with everybody每個人.
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和酷玩樂團 Coldplay 合作,
和很多人合作。
12:12
And what does he do to make
these great rock bands better?
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他做了什麼讓這些搖滾樂團更加好呢?
12:17
Well, he makes品牌 a mess食堂.
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嗯,他製造麻煩。
12:19
He disrupts破壞 their creative創作的 processes流程.
251
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他干擾他們的創意過程。
12:21
It's his role角色 to be the awkward尷尬 stranger陌生人.
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他的角色就是一個尷尬的陌生人。
12:23
It's his role角色 to tell them
253
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他存在就是為了告訴他們
12:25
that they have to play
the unplayable無法播放 piano鋼琴.
254
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他們必須要彈奏
無法演奏的鋼琴。
12:28
And one of the ways方法
in which哪一個 he creates創建 this disruption瓦解
255
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他製造這些干擾的一個方式就是
12:31
is through通過 this remarkable卓越
deck甲板 of cards --
256
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通過這一疊紙牌﹣﹣
12:34
I have my signed copy複製 here --
thank you, Brian布賴恩.
257
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我手中的這疊是簽名版﹣﹣
謝謝你,布萊恩。
12:38
They're called The Oblique Strategies策略,
258
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這是傾斜戰術,
12:40
he developed發達 them with a friend朋友 of his.
259
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他和一個朋友一起發明了這個。
12:42
And when they're stuck卡住 in the studio工作室,
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當他們在工作室文思枯竭的時候,
12:46
Brian布賴恩 Eno伊諾 will reach達到 for one of the cards.
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布萊恩.伊諾拿出牌中的一張。
12:49
He'll地獄 draw one at random隨機,
262
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他會任意選一張,
12:50
and he'll地獄 make the band
follow跟隨 the instructions說明 on the card.
263
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然後讓樂隊根據卡片上的引導。
12:54
So this one ...
264
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這一個 ...
12:57
"Change更改 instrument儀器 roles角色."
265
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「改變彈奏的樂器。」
12:58
Yeah, everyone大家 swap交換 instruments儀器 --
Drummer鼓手 on the piano鋼琴 --
266
766360
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是的,每個人都交換樂器﹣﹣
鼓手來彈鋼琴﹣﹣
13:01
Brilliant輝煌, brilliant輝煌 idea理念.
267
769099
1997
太棒了,太棒的主意了。
13:03
"Look closely密切 at the most
embarrassing尷尬 details細節. Amplify放大 them."
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「仔細研究最尷尬的細節。
然後放大它們。」
13:08
"Make a sudden突然, destructive有害,
unpredictable不可預料的 action行動. Incorporate合併."
269
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「做出突然地,具有毀滅性的,
無法預測的反應。合併它們。」
13:14
These cards are disruptive破壞性.
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這些卡片製造混亂。
13:17
Now, they've他們已經 proved證實 their worth價值
in album專輯 after album專輯.
271
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現在,它們通過一張張唱片
證實了自己的價值所在。
13:21
The musicians音樂家 hate討厭 them.
272
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音樂家們厭惡它們。
13:24
(Laughter笑聲)
273
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(笑聲)
13:25
So Phil菲爾 Collins柯林斯 was playing播放 drums
on an early Brian布賴恩 Eno伊諾 album專輯.
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在布萊恩.伊諾早期的一張唱片裡
菲爾.柯林斯是鼓手。
13:29
He got so frustrated受挫 he started開始
throwing投擲 beer啤酒 cans across橫過 the studio工作室.
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他有強烈的挫敗感
於是開始在工作室裡扔啤酒罐。
13:34
Carlos卡洛斯 Alomar阿羅瑪, great rock guitarist吉他手,
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卡洛斯.阿洛馬,
偉大的搖滾吉他手,
13:36
working加工 with Eno伊諾
on David大衛 Bowie's鮑伊的 "Lodger房客" album專輯,
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和伊諾一起工作
製作大衛.鮑伊的唱片《Lodger》,
13:40
and at one point
he turns to Brian布賴恩 and says,
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在某個時刻,
他轉向布萊恩說到,
13:43
"Brian布賴恩, this experiment實驗 is stupid."
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《布萊恩,這個實驗很愚蠢。》
13:49
But the thing is
it was a pretty漂亮 good album專輯,
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但是,這是一張很好地唱片,
13:53
but also,
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但同時,
13:55
Carlos卡洛斯 Alomar阿羅瑪, 35 years年份 later後來,
now uses使用 The Oblique Strategies策略.
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卡洛斯.阿洛馬,35 年後,
現在使用傾斜戰術。
13:59
And he tells告訴 his students學生們
to use The Oblique Strategies策略
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他告訴他的學生們
來使用傾斜戰術,
14:02
because he's realized實現 something.
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因為他意識到了一些事。
14:05
Just because you don't like it
doesn't mean it isn't helping幫助 you.
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你不喜歡它並不代表
它不能幫助你。
14:12
The strategies策略 actually其實
weren't a deck甲板 of cards originally本來,
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這個戰術實際上
原本並不是一疊紙牌,
14:14
they were just a list名單 --
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它們是一個列表﹣﹣
14:16
list名單 on the recording記錄 studio工作室 wall.
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貼在工作室墻上。
14:17
A checklist清單 of things
you might威力 try if you got stuck卡住.
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一張清單寫著,當你思路停滯的時候
你能嘗試的事。
14:23
The list名單 didn't work.
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這張清單沒起作用。
14:26
Know why?
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知道為什麼嗎?
14:29
Not messy enough足夠.
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不夠雜亂。
14:31
Your eye would go down the list名單
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你會由上而下看這張清單
14:33
and it would settle解決 on whatever隨你
was the least最小 disruptive破壞性,
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然後選擇最不混亂的,
14:37
the least最小 troublesome麻煩,
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最少麻煩的的那條,
14:40
which哪一個 of course課程 misses錯過 the point entirely完全.
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這當然完全沒有抓住要點。
14:46
And what Brian布賴恩 Eno伊諾 came來了 to realize實現 was,
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布萊恩.伊諾意識到,
14:48
yes, we need to run
the stupid experiments實驗,
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是的,我們需要進行
愚蠢的實驗,
14:53
we need to deal合同
with the awkward尷尬 strangers陌生人,
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我們需要和尷尬的陌生人相處,
14:55
we need to try to read the ugly醜陋 fonts字體.
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我們要試著閱讀難看的字體。
14:57
These things help us.
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這些事幫助了我們。
14:58
They help us solve解決 problems問題,
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它們幫助我們解決問題,
15:00
they help us be more creative創作的.
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它們幫助我們更加具有創造力。
15:01
But also ...
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但同時 ...
15:04
we really need some persuasion勸說
if we're going to accept接受 this.
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如果我們通過一些勸說
來接受這樣的事情。
15:08
So however然而 we do it ...
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無論我們如何做 ...
15:10
whether是否 it's sheer絕對 willpower意志,
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無論它是純粹的意志力,
15:12
whether是否 it's the flip翻動 of a card
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無論是輕彈一張卡片,
15:15
or whether是否 it's a guilt有罪 trip
from a German德語 teenager青少年,
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或者是一場德國年輕人
內疚的旅程,
15:19
all of us, from time to time,
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我們所有人,
總有這樣的時刻,
15:21
need to sit down and try and play
the unplayable無法播放 piano鋼琴.
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需要坐下來,試著彈奏
無法彈奏的鋼琴。
15:27
Thank you.
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謝謝。
15:28
(Applause掌聲)
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(鼓掌)
Translated by Zhiting Chen
Reviewed by Geoffrey Chen

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Tim Harford - Economist, journalist, broadcaster
Tim Harford's writings reveal the economic ideas behind everyday experiences.

Why you should listen

In the Undercover Economist column he writes for the Financial Times, Tim Harford looks at familiar situations in unfamiliar ways and explains the fundamental principles of the modern economy. He illuminates them with clear writing and a variety of examples borrowed from daily life.

His book, Adapt: Why Success Always Starts With Failure, argues that the world has become far too unpredictable and complex for today's challenges to be tackled with ready-made solutions and expert opinions. Instead, Harford suggests, we need to learn to embrace failure and to constantly adapt, to improvise rather than plan, to work from the bottom up rather than the top down. His next book, Messy: Thriving in a Tidy-Minded World will be published in September 2016. 

Harford also presents the BBC radio series More or Less, a rare broadcast program devoted, as he says, to "the powerful, sometimes beautiful, often abused but ever ubiquitous world of numbers."

He says: "I’d like to see many more complex problems approached with a willingness to experiment."

More profile about the speaker
Tim Harford | Speaker | TED.com

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