TED2015
Bill Gross: The single biggest reason why start-ups succeed
Bill Gross: Glavni razlog za uspeh startup podjetij
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Bill Gross je ustanovil veliko startup podjetij in podpiral veliko drugih-in zanimalo gaa je, zakaj so nekatera uspela in druga propadla. Zato je zbral podatke več stopodjetij, svojih in drugih, in jih rangiral glede na glavnih pet faktorjev. Našel je faktor, ki izstopa-presenetil je tudi njega.
Bill Gross - Idea guy
Bill Gross founded Idealab, an incubator of new inventions, ideas and businesses. Full bio
Bill Gross founded Idealab, an incubator of new inventions, ideas and businesses. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I'm really excited to share with you
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Navdušen sem, da lahko z vami delim
00:14
some findings that really surprise me
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nekaj ugotovitev, ki so me
resnično presenetile,
resnično presenetile,
00:17
about what makes companies
succeed the most,
succeed the most,
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o tem, kaj je tisto,
zaradi česar podjetja uspejo,
zaradi česar podjetja uspejo,
00:20
what factors actually matter the most
for startup success.
for startup success.
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kateri faktorji so tisti, ki največ
prispevajo k uspehu startup podjetij.
prispevajo k uspehu startup podjetij.
00:25
I believe that the startup organization
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Verjamem, da so startup podjetja
00:27
is one of the greatest forms
to make the world a better place.
to make the world a better place.
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najboljši način,
da svet spremenimo na bolje.
da svet spremenimo na bolje.
00:31
If you take a group of people
with the right equity incentives
with the right equity incentives
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Če vzamemo skupino ljudi,
ki so dobro motivirani in imajo kapital,
ki so dobro motivirani in imajo kapital,
00:34
and organize them in a startup,
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jih organiziramo v startup,
00:36
you can unlock human potential
in a way never before possible.
in a way never before possible.
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lahko človeški potencial izkoristimo,
kot še nikoli prej.
kot še nikoli prej.
00:40
You get them to achieve
unbelievable things.
unbelievable things.
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Lahko jih pripravimo, da dosežejo
neverjetne stvari.
neverjetne stvari.
00:43
But if the startup
organization is so great,
organization is so great,
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A, če so startup podjetja tako super,
00:45
why do so many fail?
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zakaj jih tako veliko propade?
00:47
That's what I wanted to find out.
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To sem želel ugotoviti.
00:48
I wanted to find out what
actually matters most
actually matters most
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Želel sem ugotoviti, kaj je
dejansko najbolj pomembno,
dejansko najbolj pomembno,
00:51
for startup success.
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da bo startup uspel.
00:52
And I wanted to try
to be systematic about it,
to be systematic about it,
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In želel sem biti sistematičen,
00:54
avoid some of my instincts
and maybe misperceptions I have
and maybe misperceptions I have
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se izogniti določenim instinktom in
napačnim mnenjem, ki jih imam
napačnim mnenjem, ki jih imam
00:57
from so many companies
I've seen over the years.
I've seen over the years.
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od vseh podjetij, ki sem jim bil priča.
01:00
I wanted to know this
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To sem želel izvedeti zato,
01:01
because I've been starting businesses
since I was 12 years old
since I was 12 years old
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ker odpiram podjetja
odkar sem dopolnil 12 let,
odkar sem dopolnil 12 let,
01:04
when I sold candy at the bus stop
in junior high school,
in junior high school,
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ko sem prodajal sladkarije
na avtobusni postaji
na avtobusni postaji
01:07
to high school, when I made
solar energy devices,
solar energy devices,
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izdeloval naprave za sončno energijo,
01:09
to college, when I made loudspeakers.
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do faksa, kjer sem izdeloval zvočnike.
01:11
And when I graduated from college,
I started software companies.
I started software companies.
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Ko sem diplomiral na faksu sem
začel s programskimi podjetji.
začel s programskimi podjetji.
01:14
And 20 years ago,
I started Idealab,
I started Idealab,
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20 let nazaj pa sem začel z Idealabom
01:16
and in the last 20 years,
we started more than 100 companies,
we started more than 100 companies,
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in v tem času smo odprli
več kot 100 podjetji,
več kot 100 podjetji,
01:19
many successes, and many big failures.
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ogromno uspešnih,
a tudi ogromno neuspešnih.
a tudi ogromno neuspešnih.
01:21
We learned a lot from those failures.
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Veliko smo se naučili iz slednjih.
01:23
So I tried to look across what factors
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Poskušal sem torej preveriti,
kateri faktorji
kateri faktorji
01:26
accounted the most for company
success and failure.
success and failure.
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največ doprinesejo k uspehu
ali neuspehu nekega podjetja.
ali neuspehu nekega podjetja.
01:29
So I looked at these five.
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Pogledal sem si sledečih 5.
01:31
First, the idea.
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Prvi je ideja.
01:32
I used to think that
the idea was everything.
the idea was everything.
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Včasih sem mislil, da je ideja vse.
01:34
I named my company Idealab
for how much I worship
for how much I worship
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Podjetje sem poimenoval Idealab,
ker sem oboževal
ker sem oboževal
01:36
the "aha!" moment when you first
come up with the idea.
come up with the idea.
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tisti "aha!" trenutek, ko se domisliš
neke ideje.
neke ideje.
01:39
But then over time,
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A čez čas
01:40
I came to think that maybe the team,
the execution, adaptability,
the execution, adaptability,
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sem pomislil, da so morda ekipa,
izvedba in prilagodljivost
izvedba in prilagodljivost
01:43
that mattered even more than the idea.
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tisto, kar je bolj pomembno, kot ideja.
01:46
I never thought I'd be quoting
boxer Mike Tyson on the TED stage,
boxer Mike Tyson on the TED stage,
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Nikoli si nisem mislil, da bom citiral
Mike Tysona na TED odru,
Mike Tysona na TED odru,
01:50
but he once said,
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a nekoč je rekel:
01:52
"Everybody has a plan, until they get
punched in the face." (Laughter)
punched in the face." (Laughter)
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"Vsak ima nek načrt, dokler ga nekdo
ne boksne v obraz." (smeh)
ne boksne v obraz." (smeh)
01:56
And I think that's so true
about business as well.
about business as well.
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In mislim, da to velja tudi za posel.
01:59
So much about a team's execution
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Veliko tega, kar je v izvedbi ekipe,
02:02
is its ability to adapt to getting punched
in the face by the customer.
in the face by the customer.
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je njihova sposobnost prilagajanja temu,
da jih stranka boksne v obraz.
da jih stranka boksne v obraz.
02:05
The customer is the true reality.
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Stranka je prava resničnost.
02:07
And that's why I came to think
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In zato sem pomislil,
02:09
that the team maybe
was the most important thing.
was the most important thing.
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da je mogoče ekipa tista najpomembnejša
stvar.
stvar.
02:12
Then I started looking
at the business model.
at the business model.
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Nato sem začel gledati za poslovnim
modelom.
modelom.
02:14
Does the company have a very clear path
generating customer revenues?
generating customer revenues?
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Ali ima podjetje jasno določeno, kako
ustvariti prihodek od strank?
ustvariti prihodek od strank?
02:17
That started rising to the top
in my thinking
in my thinking
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Počasi je najpomembnejša
postajala misel
postajala misel
02:19
about maybe what mattered
most for success.
most for success.
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o tem, kaj je najbolj pomembno
za uspeh.
za uspeh.
02:21
Then I looked at the funding.
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Lotil sem se še financiranja.
02:23
Sometimes companies received
intense amounts of funding.
intense amounts of funding.
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Včasih so podjetja prejela neverjetne
vsote financiranja.
vsote financiranja.
02:25
Maybe that's the most important thing?
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Morda je to najpomembnejša stvar?
02:27
And then of course,
the timing.
the timing.
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In pa seveda časovni okvir.
02:29
Is the idea way too early and
the world's not ready for it?
the world's not ready for it?
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Je ideja prezgodnja in svet nanjo
še ni pripravljen?
še ni pripravljen?
02:32
Is it early, as in, you're in advance
and you have to educate the world?
and you have to educate the world?
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Je prezgodnja v smislu, da bomo
morali svet nanjo še pripraviti?
morali svet nanjo še pripraviti?
02:35
Is it just right?
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Je čas pravi?
02:36
Or is it too late, and there's
already too many competitors?
already too many competitors?
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Ali je morda prepozno in je na trgu
že preveč konkurentov?
že preveč konkurentov?
02:39
So I tried to look very carefully
at these five factors
at these five factors
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Analize teh faktorjev sem se lotil
zelo previdno,
zelo previdno,
02:41
across many companies.
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v večih podjetjih.
02:42
And I looked across all 100
Idealab companies,
Idealab companies,
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V vseh 100-ih Idealab podjetjih
02:45
and 100 non-Idealab companies
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in 100-ih drugih,
02:46
to try and come up with
something scientific about it.
something scientific about it.
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da bi lahko prišel do kakega znanstvenega
zaključka.
zaključka.
02:49
So first, on these Idealab companies,
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In najprej v Idealab podjetjih,
02:51
the top five companies --
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najboljših pet --
02:53
Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo,
NetZero, Tickets.com --
NetZero, Tickets.com --
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Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo,
NetZero, Tickets.com --
NetZero, Tickets.com --
02:57
those all became billion-dollar successes.
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vsa ta so postala vredna več milijard.
02:59
And the five companies on the bottom --
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In pet najmanj uspešnih --
03:01
Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife,
Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --
Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --
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Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife,
Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --
Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --
03:03
we all had high hopes for,
but didn't succeed.
but didn't succeed.
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za katera smo imeli velika pričakovanja,
a jim ni uspelo.
a jim ni uspelo.
03:06
So I tried to rank across all
of those attributes
of those attributes
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Poskušal sem jih rangirati v
vseh teh atributih,
vseh teh atributih,
03:09
how I felt those companies scored
on each of those dimensions.
on each of those dimensions.
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po tem, kako se mi zdi, da so dosegla
na vseh teh področjih.
na vseh teh področjih.
03:13
And then for non-Idealab companies,
I looked at wild successes,
I looked at wild successes,
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In nato še za tista podjetja, ki niso
naša, z noro dobrim uspehom,
naša, z noro dobrim uspehom,
03:16
like Airbnb and Instagram and Uber
and Youtube and LinkedIn.
and Youtube and LinkedIn.
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kot so Airbnb, Instagram, Uber,
Youtube in LinkedIn.
Youtube in LinkedIn.
03:20
And some failures:
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In določene spodrsljaje:
03:21
Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com
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Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com,
03:23
Flooz and Friendster.
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Flooz in Friendster.
03:24
The bottom companies had intense funding,
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Podjetja z močnim financiranjem,
03:26
they even had business models
in some cases,
in some cases,
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ki so imela tudi
dober poslovni načrt,
dober poslovni načrt,
03:28
but they didn't succeed.
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a jim ni uspelo.
03:29
I tried to look at what factors
actually accounted the most
actually accounted the most
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Gledal sem predvsem faktorje,
ki so prispevali največ
ki so prispevali največ
03:32
for success and failure across
all of these companies,
all of these companies,
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k uspehu ali neuspehu
v vseh teh podjetjih
v vseh teh podjetjih
03:35
and the results really surprised me.
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in resnično so me presenetila.
03:37
The number one thing was timing.
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Najpomembnejši je bil timing.
03:39
Timing accounted for 42 percent
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V 42-ih procentih je bil timing tisti,
03:42
of the difference
between success and failure.
between success and failure.
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ki je bil odločilni faktor med
uspehom in neuspehom.
uspehom in neuspehom.
03:44
Team and execution came in second,
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Ekipa in izvedba sta bili
na drugem mestu,
na drugem mestu,
03:46
and the idea,
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ideja,
03:47
the differentiability of the idea,
the uniqueness of the idea,
the uniqueness of the idea,
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njena raznolikost in unikatnost,
03:50
that actually came in third.
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pa je bila šele tretja.
03:51
Now, this isn't absolutely definitive,
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To sicer ni 100% točno,
03:53
it's not to say that
the idea isn't important,
the idea isn't important,
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ne moremo namreč reči,
da ideja ni pomembna,
da ideja ni pomembna,
03:56
but it very much surprised me that
the idea wasn't the most important thing.
the idea wasn't the most important thing.
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a me je zelo presenetilo, da
ideja ni najpomembnejša.
ideja ni najpomembnejša.
03:59
Sometimes it mattered more when
it was actually timed.
it was actually timed.
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V nekaterih primerih je bila bolj
pomembna kot timing.
pomembna kot timing.
04:02
The last two, business model and funding,
made sense to me actually.
made sense to me actually.
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Zadnji dve, poslovni model in
financiranje, pa sta bili logični.
financiranje, pa sta bili logični.
04:05
I think business model
makes sense to be that low
makes sense to be that low
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Logično je, da je poslovni model
tako nizko,
tako nizko,
04:08
because you can start out
without a business model
without a business model
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ker lahko začneš podjetje brez
poslovnega modela
poslovnega modela
04:10
and add one later if your customers
are demanding what you're creating.
are demanding what you're creating.
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in ga dodaš kasneje, če tvoje stranke
želijo videti, kaj ustvarjaš.
želijo videti, kaj ustvarjaš.
04:13
And funding, I think as well,
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In financiranje prav tako,
04:15
if you're underfunded at first
but you're gaining traction,
but you're gaining traction,
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če nimaš dovolj financ na začetku,
a podjetju uspeva,
a podjetju uspeva,
04:18
especially in today's age,
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še posebno dandanes,
04:19
it's very, very easy to get
intense funding.
intense funding.
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je zelo, zelo lahko pridobiti finance.
04:21
So now let me give you some specific
examples about each of these.
examples about each of these.
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Dovolite mi, da vam podam nekaj
točnih primerov za vsakega.
točnih primerov za vsakega.
04:24
So take a wild success like Airbnb
that everybody knows about.
that everybody knows about.
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Poglejmo si nori uspeh Airbnb-ja,
ki ga vsi poznamo.
ki ga vsi poznamo.
04:27
Well, that company was famously
passed on by many smart investors
passed on by many smart investors
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Podjetju so marsikatera podjetja
odrekla financiranje,
odrekla financiranje,
04:30
because people thought,
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ker so ljudje mislili:
04:31
"No one's going to rent out a space
in their home to a stranger."
in their home to a stranger."
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"Nihče ne bo neznancu oddal
prostora v svojem domu."
prostora v svojem domu."
04:34
Of course, people proved that wrong.
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In ljudje smo dokazali nasprotno.
04:36
But one of the reasons it succeeded,
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A, eden od razlogov za njegov uspeh,
04:38
aside from a good business model,
a good idea, great execution,
a good idea, great execution,
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poleg dobrega poslovnega modela,
ideje in odlične izvedbe,
ideje in odlične izvedbe,
04:41
is the timing.
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je bil timing.
04:42
That company came out
right during the height of the recession
right during the height of the recession
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Podjetje se je odprlo takrat,
ko je bila recesija na vrhuncu
ko je bila recesija na vrhuncu
04:45
when people really needed extra money,
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in so ljudje potrebovali
dodaten denar
dodaten denar
04:47
and that maybe helped people overcome
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in morda so ljudje zato premagali
04:48
their objection to renting out
their own home to a stranger.
their own home to a stranger.
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odpor do oddajanja svojega
doma neznancem.
doma neznancem.
04:51
Same thing with Uber.
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Ista stvar z Uber-jem.
04:52
Uber came out,
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Na trg je prišel,
04:53
incredible company,
incredible business model,
incredible business model,
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neverjetna podjetje in poslovni model,
04:56
great execution, too.
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ter odlična izvedba.
04:57
But the timing was so perfect
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A je bil perfekten tudi timing,
04:58
for their need to get drivers
into the system.
into the system.
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zaradi potrebe po vnosu voznikov v sistem.
05:00
Drivers were looking for extra money;
it was very, very important.
it was very, very important.
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Vozniki so želeli ekstra zaslužek;
to je bilo zelo, zelo pomembno,
to je bilo zelo, zelo pomembno,
05:03
Some of our early successes, Citysearch,
came out when people needed web pages.
came out when people needed web pages.
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Citysearch-u recimo, je uspelo, ker so
ljudje potrebovali spletne strani.
ljudje potrebovali spletne strani.
05:07
GoTo.com, which we announced
actually at TED in 1998,
actually at TED in 1998,
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GoTo.com-u, ki smo ga naznanili
na TED-u leta 1998,
na TED-u leta 1998,
05:10
was when companies were looking for
cost-effective ways to get traffic.
cost-effective ways to get traffic.
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je uspelo, ker so podjetja želela
dobiti promet, a zmanjšati stroške.
dobiti promet, a zmanjšati stroške.
05:13
We thought the idea was so great,
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Ideja je bila tako dobra,
05:15
but actually, the timing was probably
maybe more important.
maybe more important.
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a je bil verjetno timing veliko
bolj pomemben.
bolj pomemben.
05:17
And then some of our failures.
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In še nekaj naših neuspehov.
05:19
We started a company called Z.com,
it was an online entertainment company.
it was an online entertainment company.
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Začeli smo podjetje imenovano Z.com,
spletno zabaviščno podjetje.
spletno zabaviščno podjetje.
05:22
We were so excited about it --
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Imeli smo visoke upe zanj -
05:24
we raised enough money,
we had a great business model,
we had a great business model,
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zbrali dovolj denarja, imeli
odličen poslovni model,
odličen poslovni model,
05:26
we even signed incredibly great
Hollywood talent to join the company.
Hollywood talent to join the company.
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podpisali pogodbo s Hollywoodskim
talentom, ki bi se nam pridružil.
talentom, ki bi se nam pridružil.
05:29
But broadband penetration
was too low in 1999-2000.
was too low in 1999-2000.
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A internet v letih 99-2000
ni bil dovolj razširjen.
ni bil dovolj razširjen.
05:32
It was too hard to watch
video content online,
video content online,
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Videe je bilo težko gledati
preko spleta,
preko spleta,
05:34
you had to put codecs in your browser
and do all this stuff,
and do all this stuff,
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v brskalnik si moral dajati kodeke
05:37
and the company eventually
went out of business in 2003.
went out of business in 2003.
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in sčasoma je podjetje
leta 2003 propadlo.
leta 2003 propadlo.
05:39
Just two years later,
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Samo dve leti kasneje
05:41
when the codec problem
was solved by Adobe Flash
was solved by Adobe Flash
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pa je Adobe Flash rešil problem s kodeki
05:43
and when broadband penetration
crossed 50 percent in America,
crossed 50 percent in America,
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in, ko je internet v Ameriki presegel
50 procentov,
50 procentov,
05:47
YouTube was perfectly timed.
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je bil čas za YouTube perfekten.
05:49
Great idea, but unbelievable timing.
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Odlična ideja, a neverjeten timing.
05:51
In fact, YouTube didn't even have
a business model when it first started.
a business model when it first started.
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YouTube na začetku dejansko niti ni imel
poslovnega modela.
poslovnega modela.
05:54
It wasn't even certain that
that would work out.
that would work out.
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Gotovo ni bilo niti, ali mu bo uspelo.
05:57
But that was beautifully,
beautifully timed.
beautifully timed.
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A čas je bil perfekten.
05:59
So what I would say, in summary,
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Kar želim povedati je torej to,
06:00
is execution definitely matters a lot.
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da je izvedba sicer zelo pomembna.
06:03
The idea matters a lot.
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Prav tako tudi ideja.
06:04
But timing might matter even more.
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A timing je pomemben veliko bolj.
06:06
And the best way to really assess timing
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In najboljši način doseči pravi timing je,
06:08
is to really look at whether
consumers are really ready
consumers are really ready
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da dobro analiziramo,
ali so potrošniki pripravljeni
ali so potrošniki pripravljeni
06:11
for what you have to offer them.
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na to, kar jim bomo ponudili.
06:12
And to be really, really honest about it,
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In, če smo popolnoma iskreni,
06:14
not be in denial about
any results that you see,
any results that you see,
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da nismo v zanikanju o rezultatih,
ki jih dobimo
ki jih dobimo
06:16
because if you have something you love,
you want to push it forward,
you want to push it forward,
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ker, če imamo nekaj, kar imamo radi,
želimo da uspe,
želimo da uspe,
06:20
but you have to be very, very honest
about that factor on timing.
about that factor on timing.
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a moramo biti resnično iskreni,
če je čas za to pravi.
če je čas za to pravi.
06:23
As I said earlier,
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Kot sem že omenil,
06:24
I think startups can change the world
and make the world a better place.
and make the world a better place.
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menim, da startup podjetja lahko
spremenijo svet, ga izboljšajo.
spremenijo svet, ga izboljšajo.
06:27
I hope some of these insights
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Upam, da vam ti vpogledi
06:28
can maybe help you
have a slightly higher success ratio,
have a slightly higher success ratio,
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lahko pomagajo do rahlo boljšega
razmerja za uspeh
razmerja za uspeh
06:31
and thus make something great
come to the world
come to the world
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in tega, da ustvarite
nekaj odličnega za svet,
nekaj odličnega za svet,
06:33
that wouldn't have happened otherwise.
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nekaj kar se sicer ne bi zgodilo.
06:35
Thank you very much,
you've been a great audience.
you've been a great audience.
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Najlepša hvala vsem,
bili ste odlično občinstvo.
bili ste odlično občinstvo.
06:37
(Applause)
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(aplavz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bill Gross - Idea guyBill Gross founded Idealab, an incubator of new inventions, ideas and businesses.
Why you should listen
Bill Gross is the founder of Idealab, a business incubator focused on new ideas. (He's now the chair and CEO.) He helped create GoTo.com, the first sponsored search company. He also created the Snap! search engine, which allows users to preview hyperlinks.
Gross has been an entrepreneur since high school, when he founded a solar energy company. In college, he patented a new loudspeaker design, and after school he started a company that was later acquired by Lotus, and then launched an educational software publishing company. Now, he serves on the boards of companies in the areas of automation, software and renewable energy.
Bill Gross | Speaker | TED.com