ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bill Gross - Idea guy
Bill Gross founded Idealab, an incubator of new inventions, ideas and businesses.

Why you should listen

Bill Gross is the founder of Idealab, a business incubator focused on new ideas. (He's now the chair and CEO.) He helped create GoTo.com, the first sponsored search company. He also created the Snap! search engine, which allows users to preview hyperlinks. 

Gross has been an entrepreneur since high school, when he founded a solar energy company. In college, he patented a new loudspeaker design, and after school he started a company that was later acquired by Lotus, and then launched an educational software publishing company. Now, he serves on the boards of companies in the areas of automation, software and renewable energy.

More profile about the speaker
Bill Gross | Speaker | TED.com
TED2015

Bill Gross: The single biggest reason why start-ups succeed

比尔·格罗斯: 创业公司成功的最重要原因

Filmed:
7,578,583 views

比尔·格罗斯创立了许多初创公司-让他好奇的是为什么有些公司成功了,而有些失败了。所以他搜集了包括他自己的和别人的公司在内数百家公司的数据,排列了每个公司五项主要因素。使他震惊的是,其中一项因素格外突出。
- Idea guy
Bill Gross founded Idealab, an incubator of new inventions, ideas and businesses. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
I'm really excited兴奋 to share分享 with you
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非常高兴,能够与你们分享
00:14
some findings发现 that really surprise me
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一些使我感到十分惊讶的发现。
这些发现是关于什么最能使公司成功
00:17
about what makes品牌 companies公司
succeed成功 the most,
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00:20
what factors因素 actually其实 matter the most
for startup启动 success成功.
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以及对于创业公司,什么因素最要紧。
我相信,创业组织是
00:25
I believe that the startup启动 organization组织
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00:27
is one of the greatest最大 forms形式
to make the world世界 a better place地点.
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使世界成为更好的地方的最伟大的形式之一。
如果你能用合适的股权激励来召集一帮人
00:31
If you take a group of people
with the right equity公平 incentives奖励
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并且把他们组织起来创业的话
00:34
and organize组织 them in a startup启动,
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你就能以前所未有的方式释放了人类潜能。
00:36
you can unlock开锁 human人的 potential潜在
in a way never before possible可能.
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并引领他们去完成不可置信的事情。
00:40
You get them to achieve实现
unbelievable难以置信的 things.
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但是,如果创业组织那么伟大,
00:43
But if the startup启动
organization组织 is so great,
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为什么还会有很多失败呢?
00:45
why do so many许多 fail失败?
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这就是我想要探究的问题。
00:47
That's what I wanted to find out.
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我想要了解,对创业公司的成功来说,
00:48
I wanted to find out what
actually其实 matters事项 most
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到底什么最为重要。
00:51
for startup启动 success成功.
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我也想要对此问题系统化的分析,
00:52
And I wanted to try
to be systematic系统的 about it,
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避免一些因为我这些年看到许多公司
00:54
avoid避免 some of my instincts本能
and maybe misperceptions误解 I have
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而得来的直觉上的误解。
00:57
from so many许多 companies公司
I've seen看到 over the years年份.
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01:00
I wanted to know this
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我想要知道这个,
01:01
because I've been starting开始 businesses企业
since以来 I was 12 years年份 old
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因为,我从12岁上初中,在汽车站售卖糖果时,
便开始我自己的商业活动。
01:04
when I sold出售 candy糖果 at the bus总线 stop
in junior初级 high school学校,
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在高中时,我做太阳能设备的生意,
01:07
to high school学校, when I made制作
solar太阳能 energy能源 devices设备,
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01:09
to college学院, when I made制作 loudspeakers扩音器.
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在大学时,我做扩音器生意。
当我从大学毕业的时候,我成立了一家软件公司。
01:11
And when I graduated毕业 from college学院,
I started开始 software软件 companies公司.
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20年前,我成立了创意实验室,
01:14
And 20 years年份 ago,
I started开始 Idealab创意实验室,
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在过去的20年里,我们成立超过100家公司。
01:16
and in the last 20 years年份,
we started开始 more than 100 companies公司,
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01:19
many许多 successes成功, and many许多 big failures故障.
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其中,很多成功了,也有很多失败了。
我们从那些失败中学到了很多。
01:21
We learned学到了 a lot from those failures故障.
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所以,我尝试去探索
01:23
So I tried试着 to look across横过 what factors因素
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是什么因素导致公司的成败。
01:26
accounted the most for company公司
success成功 and failure失败.
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所以我关注在这5点。
01:29
So I looked看着 at these five.
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第一,创意。
01:31
First, the idea理念.
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01:32
I used to think that
the idea理念 was everything.
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我过去认为,创意就是全部。
我将我的公司命名为创意实验室,
01:34
I named命名 my company公司 Idealab创意实验室
for how much I worship崇拜
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是因为,我十分推崇,当你首次想到某个想法的时候,“aha”(啊哈)开窍的时刻。
01:36
the "aha!" moment时刻 when you first
come up with the idea理念.
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但是,随着时间的推移,
01:39
But then over time,
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01:40
I came来了 to think that maybe the team球队,
the execution执行, adaptability适应性,
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我认为或许团队、执行力或者是适应力,
01:43
that mattered要紧 even more than the idea理念.
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比创意更要紧。
我从没想过,我会在TED的舞台上,引用拳王泰森的话,
01:46
I never thought I'd be quoting引用
boxer拳击手 Mike麦克风 Tyson泰森 on the TEDTED stage阶段,
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但是,他曾经说过,
01:50
but he once一旦 said,
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01:52
"Everybody每个人 has a plan计划, until直到 they get
punched in the face面对." (Laughter笑声)
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“每个人都有计划,直到被人打脸为止。”(笑声)
我认为,对于生意也是这样的。
01:56
And I think that's so true真正
about business商业 as well.
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对于一个团队的执行力为说,最要紧的,
01:59
So much about a team's球队的 execution执行
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02:02
is its ability能力 to adapt适应 to getting得到 punched
in the face面对 by the customer顾客.
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是它使自己能适应被客户打脸的能力。
客户就是真理。
02:05
The customer顾客 is the true真正 reality现实.
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这就是为什么我认为
02:07
And that's why I came来了 to think
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团队是最重要的事情。
02:09
that the team球队 maybe
was the most important重要 thing.
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然后,我开始关注商业模式。
02:12
Then I started开始 looking
at the business商业 model模型.
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02:14
Does the company公司 have a very clear明确 path路径
generating发电 customer顾客 revenues收入?
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就是这个公司是否有一条清晰的能产生客户收益的路线图吗?
商业模式开始成为我对什么对成功最重要
02:17
That started开始 rising升起 to the top最佳
in my thinking思维
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这一思考的重点。
02:19
about maybe what mattered要紧
most for success成功.
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02:21
Then I looked看着 at the funding资金.
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然后,我关注了资金。
02:23
Sometimes有时 companies公司 received收到
intense激烈 amounts of funding资金.
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有时候一些公司会去吸纳大量的资金,
02:25
Maybe that's the most important重要 thing?
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也许这是最重要的事情?
当然还有时机。
02:27
And then of course课程,
the timing定时.
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这个想法是不是太早了,我们还没有做好迎接它的准备?
02:29
Is the idea理念 way too early and
the world's世界 not ready准备 for it?
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它是不是太超前了以至于你不得不来教导世界?
02:32
Is it early, as in, you're in advance提前
and you have to educate教育 the world世界?
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它恰在时机吗?
02:35
Is it just right?
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或者它是不是太晚,已经有太多的公司竞争?
02:36
Or is it too late晚了, and there's
already已经 too many许多 competitors竞争对手?
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所以我努力去认真考察这五个因素
02:39
So I tried试着 to look very carefully小心
at these five factors因素
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在公司中的影响。
02:41
across横过 many许多 companies公司.
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我考察了100家创意实验室下的公司,
02:42
And I looked看着 across横过 all 100
Idealab创意实验室 companies公司,
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还有100家非创意实验室下的公司,
02:45
and 100 non-Idealab非创意实验室 companies公司
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试图提出一些科学的东西。
02:46
to try and come up with
something scientific科学 about it.
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首先,在这些创意实验公司里,
02:49
So first, on these Idealab创意实验室 companies公司,
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02:51
the top最佳 five companies公司 --
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排在前面的五家公司
Citysearch ,CarsDirct, GoTo, NetZero, Tickets.com
02:53
Citysearch城市搜索, CarsDirectCarsDirect, GoTo,
NetZeroNetZero公司, Tickets门票.comCOM --
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最后都成为了十亿美元以上的成功公司
02:57
those all became成为 billion-dollar十亿美元 successes成功.
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02:59
And the five companies公司 on the bottom底部 --
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而下面的五家公司
Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife,Desktop Factory, Peoplelink
03:01
Z.comCOM, Insider内幕 Pages网页, MyLife我的生活,
Desktop桌面 Factory, PeoplelinkPeoplelink --
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03:03
we all had high hopes希望 for,
but didn't succeed成功.
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我们曾寄以重望,但没有成功。
所以我试图就这些公司在每个因素中的得分,
03:06
So I tried试着 to rank across横过 all
of those attributes属性
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03:09
how I felt those companies公司 scored进球
on each of those dimensions尺寸.
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给它们排序。
然后对于非创意实验公司,我关注极度的成功者,
03:13
And then for non-Idealab非创意实验室 companies公司,
I looked看着 at wild野生 successes成功,
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03:16
like Airbnb制作的Airbnb and InstagramInstagram的 and Uber尤伯杯
and Youtube的Youtube and LinkedInLinkedIn.
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像Airbnb,Instagram, Uber ,YouTube ,Linkedln
还有一些失败的案例
03:20
And some failures故障:
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Webvan,Kozmo,Pets.com
03:21
WebvanWebvan的, KozmoKozmo, Pets宠物.comCOM
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Flooz 和 Friendster
03:23
FloozFlooz and FriendsterFriendster的.
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03:24
The bottom底部 companies公司 had intense激烈 funding资金,
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垫底的公司都有雄厚的资金
03:26
they even had business商业 models楷模
in some cases,
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一些案例甚至有商业模式在里面
03:28
but they didn't succeed成功.
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但是,他们并没有成功。
我尝试考察在这些成功和失败的案例中
03:29
I tried试着 to look at what factors因素
actually其实 accounted the most
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03:32
for success成功 and failure失败 across横过
all of these companies公司,
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到底什么因素真的最重要
结果让我大吃一惊
03:35
and the results结果 really surprised诧异 me.
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最重要的是时机
03:37
The number one thing was timing定时.
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在解释成功和失败的差异中
03:39
Timing定时 accounted for 42 percent百分
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时机占42%
03:42
of the difference区别
between之间 success成功 and failure失败.
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03:44
Team球队 and execution执行 came来了 in second第二,
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团队和执行力排在次位
03:46
and the idea理念,
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然后是创意
03:47
the differentiability微分 of the idea理念,
the uniqueness独特性 of the idea理念,
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创意的差异,或者说创意的独特性
实际上排在第三位
03:50
that actually其实 came来了 in third第三.
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它不是决定性的
03:51
Now, this isn't absolutely绝对 definitive明确,
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不是说创意不重要
03:53
it's not to say that
the idea理念 isn't important重要,
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但创意不是最重要的,这还是让我惊讶
03:56
but it very much surprised诧异 me that
the idea理念 wasn't the most important重要 thing.
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有时候更重要的是它是否恰对时机
03:59
Sometimes有时 it mattered要紧 more when
it was actually其实 timed时控.
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最末尾的两项,商业模式和资金,实际上对我意义深远
04:02
The last two, business商业 model模型 and funding资金,
made制作 sense to me actually其实.
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我认为商业模式 之所以不那么重要
04:05
I think business商业 model模型
makes品牌 sense to be that low
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是因为没有商业模式,你也可以创业
04:08
because you can start开始 out
without a business商业 model模型
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要是你的客户正需要你的创新时,更是如此
04:10
and add one later后来 if your customers顾客
are demanding严格 what you're creating创建.
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至于资金,我认为也一样
04:13
And funding资金, I think as well,
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如果你一开始资金不足然而却可以不断发展
04:15
if you're underfunded资金不足 at first
but you're gaining取得 traction牵引,
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实际上今天的时代
04:18
especially特别 in today's今天的 age年龄,
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要想得到大量的资金真的非常非常的容易
04:19
it's very, very easy简单 to get
intense激烈 funding资金.
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那现在让我针对每个方面举一些具体的事例
04:21
So now let me give you some specific具体
examples例子 about each of these.
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就以家耳熟能详的Airbnb为例吧
04:24
So take a wild野生 success成功 like Airbnb制作的Airbnb
that everybody每个人 knows知道 about.
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这家公司一开始曾被很多投资者pass掉了
04:27
Well, that company公司 was famously著名
passed通过 on by many许多 smart聪明 investors投资者
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因为大家觉得
04:30
because people thought,
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“没人会腾出家里的一块地方出租给陌生人”
04:31
"No one's那些 going to rent出租 out a space空间
in their home to a stranger陌生人."
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当然,后来证明大家是错的
04:34
Of course课程, people proved证实 that wrong错误.
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但是它成功的一个原因
04:36
But one of the reasons原因 it succeeded成功,
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除了好的商业模式,好创意,强大的执行力之外
04:38
aside在旁边 from a good business商业 model模型,
a good idea理念, great execution执行,
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就是时机
04:41
is the timing定时.
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就在经济危机的最高潮时,该公司出现了
04:42
That company公司 came来了 out
right during the height高度 of the recession不景气
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这时人们真的很需要挣点外快
04:45
when people really needed需要 extra额外 money,
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这或许帮助人们克服了要把自己的
04:47
and that maybe helped帮助 people overcome克服
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房间出租给一个陌生人的障碍
04:48
their objection异议 to renting租房 out
their own拥有 home to a stranger陌生人.
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对于Uber,情况相同
04:51
Same相同 thing with Uber尤伯杯.
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04:52
Uber尤伯杯 came来了 out,
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Uber的诞生
04:53
incredible难以置信 company公司,
incredible难以置信 business商业 model模型,
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难以置信的公司,难以置信的商业模式
也有强大的执行力
04:56
great execution执行, too.
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但当它们需要拉司机进入到这个体系时
04:57
But the timing定时 was so perfect完善
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时机恰好是那么完美
04:58
for their need to get drivers司机
into the system系统.
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05:00
Drivers驱动程序 were looking for extra额外 money;
it was very, very important重要.
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司机们正需要挣外快,这点至关重要
05:03
Some of our early successes成功, Citysearch城市搜索,
came来了 out when people needed需要 web卷筒纸 pages网页.
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我们早期的一些成功范例,像Citysearch城市搜索,就在大家需要网页的时候诞生了
GoTo.com,这个我们早在1998年就在Ted上说过
05:07
GoTo.comCOM, which哪一个 we announced公布
actually其实 at TEDTED in 1998,
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05:10
was when companies公司 were looking for
cost-effective经济有效 ways方法 to get traffic交通.
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是在公司寻找划算的获得流量的方法时诞生的
我们曾经认为创意是那么重要
05:13
We thought the idea理念 was so great,
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然而实际上,时机或许更重要些
05:15
but actually其实, the timing定时 was probably大概
maybe more important重要.
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然后是一些失败的例子
05:17
And then some of our failures故障.
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我们曾创立过一个叫Z.com的线上娱乐公司
05:19
We started开始 a company公司 called Z.comCOM,
it was an online线上 entertainment娱乐 company公司.
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我们对此满怀期待
05:22
We were so excited兴奋 about it --
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我们筹集了大量的资金,我们有一个很棒的商业模式
05:24
we raised上调 enough足够 money,
we had a great business商业 model模型,
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甚至我们还将伟大的好莱坞天才们签进公司
05:26
we even signed incredibly令人难以置信 great
Hollywood好莱坞 talent天赋 to join加入 the company公司.
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但1999到2000年的宽带普及程度实在太低
05:29
But broadband宽带 penetration渗透
was too low in 1999-2000.
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05:32
It was too hard to watch
video视频 content内容 online线上,
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要想在网上看视频太困难了
05:34
you had to put codecs编解码器 in your browser浏览器
and do all this stuff东东,
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你不得不向浏览器加入多媒体数字信号编解码器,要加入所有编解码器,
05:37
and the company公司 eventually终于
went out of business商业 in 2003.
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最后这家公司最终在2003年退出了市场
仅仅在两年之后
05:39
Just two years年份 later后来,
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当Adobe flash 解决了编解码问题
05:41
when the codec编解码器 problem问题
was solved解决了 by Adobe土砖 Flash
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05:43
and when broadband宽带 penetration渗透
crossed越过 50 percent百分 in America美国,
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并且全美的宽带普及度达到50%后
05:47
YouTubeYouTube的 was perfectly完美 timed时控.
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YouTube正中时机
05:49
Great idea理念, but unbelievable难以置信的 timing定时.
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好的创意,不可思议的时机
05:51
In fact事实, YouTubeYouTube的 didn't even have
a business商业 model模型 when it first started开始.
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事实上,YouTube 一开始都没有一个商业模式
也不确定它是否会成功
05:54
It wasn't even certain某些 that
that would work out.
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但它是如此漂亮地正中时机
05:57
But that was beautifully精美,
beautifully精美 timed时控.
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所以总结来说,我要说的就是
05:59
So what I would say, in summary概要,
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执行力真的很重要
06:00
is execution执行 definitely无疑 matters事项 a lot.
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创意很重要
06:03
The idea理念 matters事项 a lot.
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但是,时机更重要
06:04
But timing定时 might威力 matter even more.
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06:06
And the best最好 way to really assess评估 timing定时
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而真正要去评估时机的最佳方法
06:08
is to really look at whether是否
consumers消费者 are really ready准备
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就是真的去考察消费者是否真的做好准备
06:11
for what you have to offer提供 them.
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为你所提供的服务做好准备
06:12
And to be really, really honest诚实 about it,
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对此,一定要实事求是
不要否认你所看到的任何结果
06:14
not be in denial否认 about
any results结果 that you see,
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因为如果你有喜爱的东西,你会想推动它
06:16
because if you have something you love,
you want to push it forward前锋,
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但你不得不对时机这个因素非常非常的诚实
06:20
but you have to be very, very honest诚实
about that factor因子 on timing定时.
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正如我之前所说
06:23
As I said earlier,
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06:24
I think startups初创公司 can change更改 the world世界
and make the world世界 a better place地点.
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我认为创业公司可以改变世界,让世界更加美好
我希望这些见解
06:27
I hope希望 some of these insights见解
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可以帮助你们提高一点点成功的几率
06:28
can maybe help you
have a slightly higher更高 success成功 ratio,
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这样就可以给世界带来一点
06:31
and thus从而 make something great
come to the world世界
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06:33
that wouldn't不会 have happened发生 otherwise除此以外.
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本不会发生的好的改变
06:35
Thank you very much,
you've been a great audience听众.
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十分感谢,你已经是一名伟大的听众。
(鼓掌)
06:37
(Applause掌声)
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(鼓掌)
Translated by 展玮 许
Reviewed by dahong zhang

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bill Gross - Idea guy
Bill Gross founded Idealab, an incubator of new inventions, ideas and businesses.

Why you should listen

Bill Gross is the founder of Idealab, a business incubator focused on new ideas. (He's now the chair and CEO.) He helped create GoTo.com, the first sponsored search company. He also created the Snap! search engine, which allows users to preview hyperlinks. 

Gross has been an entrepreneur since high school, when he founded a solar energy company. In college, he patented a new loudspeaker design, and after school he started a company that was later acquired by Lotus, and then launched an educational software publishing company. Now, he serves on the boards of companies in the areas of automation, software and renewable energy.

More profile about the speaker
Bill Gross | Speaker | TED.com