TED2015
Bill Gross: The single biggest reason why start-ups succeed
比尔·格罗斯: 创业公司成功的最重要原因
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比尔·格罗斯创立了许多初创公司-让他好奇的是为什么有些公司成功了，而有些失败了。所以他搜集了包括他自己的和别人的公司在内数百家公司的数据，排列了每个公司五项主要因素。使他震惊的是，其中一项因素格外突出。
Bill Gross - Idea guy
Bill Gross founded Idealab, an incubator of new inventions, ideas and businesses. Full bio
Bill Gross founded Idealab, an incubator of new inventions, ideas and businesses. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I'm really excited to share with you
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非常高兴，能够与你们分享
00:14
some findings that really surprise me
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一些使我感到十分惊讶的发现。
这些发现是关于什么最能使公司成功
00:17
about what makes companies
succeed the most,
succeed the most,
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00:20
what factors actually matter the most
for startup success.
for startup success.
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以及对于创业公司，什么因素最要紧。
我相信，创业组织是
00:25
I believe that the startup organization
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00:27
is one of the greatest forms
to make the world a better place.
to make the world a better place.
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使世界成为更好的地方的最伟大的形式之一。
如果你能用合适的股权激励来召集一帮人
00:31
If you take a group of people
with the right equity incentives
with the right equity incentives
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并且把他们组织起来创业的话
00:34
and organize them in a startup,
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你就能以前所未有的方式释放了人类潜能。
00:36
you can unlock human potential
in a way never before possible.
in a way never before possible.
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并引领他们去完成不可置信的事情。
00:40
You get them to achieve
unbelievable things.
unbelievable things.
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但是，如果创业组织那么伟大，
00:43
But if the startup
organization is so great,
organization is so great,
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为什么还会有很多失败呢？
00:45
why do so many fail?
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这就是我想要探究的问题。
00:47
That's what I wanted to find out.
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我想要了解，对创业公司的成功来说，
00:48
I wanted to find out what
actually matters most
actually matters most
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到底什么最为重要。
00:51
for startup success.
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我也想要对此问题系统化的分析，
00:52
And I wanted to try
to be systematic about it,
to be systematic about it,
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避免一些因为我这些年看到许多公司
00:54
avoid some of my instincts
and maybe misperceptions I have
and maybe misperceptions I have
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而得来的直觉上的误解。
00:57
from so many companies
I've seen over the years.
I've seen over the years.
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01:00
I wanted to know this
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我想要知道这个，
01:01
because I've been starting businesses
since I was 12 years old
since I was 12 years old
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因为，我从12岁上初中，在汽车站售卖糖果时，
便开始我自己的商业活动。
01:04
when I sold candy at the bus stop
in junior high school,
in junior high school,
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在高中时，我做太阳能设备的生意，
01:07
to high school, when I made
solar energy devices,
solar energy devices,
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01:09
to college, when I made loudspeakers.
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在大学时，我做扩音器生意。
当我从大学毕业的时候，我成立了一家软件公司。
01:11
And when I graduated from college,
I started software companies.
I started software companies.
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20年前，我成立了创意实验室，
01:14
And 20 years ago,
I started Idealab,
I started Idealab,
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在过去的20年里，我们成立超过100家公司。
01:16
and in the last 20 years,
we started more than 100 companies,
we started more than 100 companies,
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01:19
many successes, and many big failures.
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其中，很多成功了，也有很多失败了。
我们从那些失败中学到了很多。
01:21
We learned a lot from those failures.
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所以，我尝试去探索
01:23
So I tried to look across what factors
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是什么因素导致公司的成败。
01:26
accounted the most for company
success and failure.
success and failure.
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所以我关注在这5点。
01:29
So I looked at these five.
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第一，创意。
01:31
First, the idea.
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01:32
I used to think that
the idea was everything.
the idea was everything.
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我过去认为，创意就是全部。
我将我的公司命名为创意实验室，
01:34
I named my company Idealab
for how much I worship
for how much I worship
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是因为，我十分推崇，当你首次想到某个想法的时候，“aha”（啊哈）开窍的时刻。
01:36
the "aha!" moment when you first
come up with the idea.
come up with the idea.
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但是，随着时间的推移，
01:39
But then over time,
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01:40
I came to think that maybe the team,
the execution, adaptability,
the execution, adaptability,
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我认为或许团队、执行力或者是适应力，
01:43
that mattered even more than the idea.
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比创意更要紧。
我从没想过，我会在TED的舞台上，引用拳王泰森的话，
01:46
I never thought I'd be quoting
boxer Mike Tyson on the TED stage,
boxer Mike Tyson on the TED stage,
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但是，他曾经说过，
01:50
but he once said,
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01:52
"Everybody has a plan, until they get
punched in the face." (Laughter)
punched in the face." (Laughter)
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“每个人都有计划，直到被人打脸为止。”（笑声）
我认为，对于生意也是这样的。
01:56
And I think that's so true
about business as well.
about business as well.
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对于一个团队的执行力为说，最要紧的，
01:59
So much about a team's execution
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02:02
is its ability to adapt to getting punched
in the face by the customer.
in the face by the customer.
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是它使自己能适应被客户打脸的能力。
客户就是真理。
02:05
The customer is the true reality.
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这就是为什么我认为
02:07
And that's why I came to think
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团队是最重要的事情。
02:09
that the team maybe
was the most important thing.
was the most important thing.
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然后，我开始关注商业模式。
02:12
Then I started looking
at the business model.
at the business model.
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02:14
Does the company have a very clear path
generating customer revenues?
generating customer revenues?
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就是这个公司是否有一条清晰的能产生客户收益的路线图吗？
商业模式开始成为我对什么对成功最重要
02:17
That started rising to the top
in my thinking
in my thinking
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这一思考的重点。
02:19
about maybe what mattered
most for success.
most for success.
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02:21
Then I looked at the funding.
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然后，我关注了资金。
02:23
Sometimes companies received
intense amounts of funding.
intense amounts of funding.
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有时候一些公司会去吸纳大量的资金，
02:25
Maybe that's the most important thing?
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也许这是最重要的事情？
当然还有时机。
02:27
And then of course,
the timing.
the timing.
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这个想法是不是太早了，我们还没有做好迎接它的准备？
02:29
Is the idea way too early and
the world's not ready for it?
the world's not ready for it?
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它是不是太超前了以至于你不得不来教导世界？
02:32
Is it early, as in, you're in advance
and you have to educate the world?
and you have to educate the world?
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它恰在时机吗？
02:35
Is it just right?
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或者它是不是太晚，已经有太多的公司竞争？
02:36
Or is it too late, and there's
already too many competitors?
already too many competitors?
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所以我努力去认真考察这五个因素
02:39
So I tried to look very carefully
at these five factors
at these five factors
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在公司中的影响。
02:41
across many companies.
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我考察了100家创意实验室下的公司，
02:42
And I looked across all 100
Idealab companies,
Idealab companies,
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还有100家非创意实验室下的公司，
02:45
and 100 non-Idealab companies
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试图提出一些科学的东西。
02:46
to try and come up with
something scientific about it.
something scientific about it.
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首先，在这些创意实验公司里，
02:49
So first, on these Idealab companies,
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02:51
the top five companies --
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排在前面的五家公司
Citysearch ,CarsDirct, GoTo, NetZero, Tickets.com
02:53
Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo,
NetZero, Tickets.com --
NetZero, Tickets.com --
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最后都成为了十亿美元以上的成功公司
02:57
those all became billion-dollar successes.
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02:59
And the five companies on the bottom --
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而下面的五家公司
Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife,Desktop Factory, Peoplelink
03:01
Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife,
Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --
Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --
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03:03
we all had high hopes for,
but didn't succeed.
but didn't succeed.
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我们曾寄以重望，但没有成功。
所以我试图就这些公司在每个因素中的得分，
03:06
So I tried to rank across all
of those attributes
of those attributes
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03:09
how I felt those companies scored
on each of those dimensions.
on each of those dimensions.
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给它们排序。
然后对于非创意实验公司，我关注极度的成功者，
03:13
And then for non-Idealab companies,
I looked at wild successes,
I looked at wild successes,
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03:16
like Airbnb and Instagram and Uber
and Youtube and LinkedIn.
and Youtube and LinkedIn.
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像Airbnb，Instagram, Uber ,YouTube ,Linkedln
还有一些失败的案例
03:20
And some failures:
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Webvan,Kozmo,Pets.com
03:21
Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com
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Flooz 和 Friendster
03:23
Flooz and Friendster.
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03:24
The bottom companies had intense funding,
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垫底的公司都有雄厚的资金
03:26
they even had business models
in some cases,
in some cases,
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一些案例甚至有商业模式在里面
03:28
but they didn't succeed.
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但是，他们并没有成功。
我尝试考察在这些成功和失败的案例中
03:29
I tried to look at what factors
actually accounted the most
actually accounted the most
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03:32
for success and failure across
all of these companies,
all of these companies,
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到底什么因素真的最重要
结果让我大吃一惊
03:35
and the results really surprised me.
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最重要的是时机
03:37
The number one thing was timing.
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在解释成功和失败的差异中
03:39
Timing accounted for 42 percent
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时机占42%
03:42
of the difference
between success and failure.
between success and failure.
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03:44
Team and execution came in second,
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团队和执行力排在次位
03:46
and the idea,
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然后是创意
03:47
the differentiability of the idea,
the uniqueness of the idea,
the uniqueness of the idea,
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创意的差异，或者说创意的独特性
实际上排在第三位
03:50
that actually came in third.
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它不是决定性的
03:51
Now, this isn't absolutely definitive,
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不是说创意不重要
03:53
it's not to say that
the idea isn't important,
the idea isn't important,
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但创意不是最重要的，这还是让我惊讶
03:56
but it very much surprised me that
the idea wasn't the most important thing.
the idea wasn't the most important thing.
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有时候更重要的是它是否恰对时机
03:59
Sometimes it mattered more when
it was actually timed.
it was actually timed.
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最末尾的两项，商业模式和资金，实际上对我意义深远
04:02
The last two, business model and funding,
made sense to me actually.
made sense to me actually.
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我认为商业模式 之所以不那么重要
04:05
I think business model
makes sense to be that low
makes sense to be that low
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是因为没有商业模式，你也可以创业
04:08
because you can start out
without a business model
without a business model
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要是你的客户正需要你的创新时，更是如此
04:10
and add one later if your customers
are demanding what you're creating.
are demanding what you're creating.
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至于资金，我认为也一样
04:13
And funding, I think as well,
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如果你一开始资金不足然而却可以不断发展
04:15
if you're underfunded at first
but you're gaining traction,
but you're gaining traction,
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实际上今天的时代
04:18
especially in today's age,
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要想得到大量的资金真的非常非常的容易
04:19
it's very, very easy to get
intense funding.
intense funding.
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那现在让我针对每个方面举一些具体的事例
04:21
So now let me give you some specific
examples about each of these.
examples about each of these.
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就以家耳熟能详的Airbnb为例吧
04:24
So take a wild success like Airbnb
that everybody knows about.
that everybody knows about.
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这家公司一开始曾被很多投资者pass掉了
04:27
Well, that company was famously
passed on by many smart investors
passed on by many smart investors
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因为大家觉得
04:30
because people thought,
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“没人会腾出家里的一块地方出租给陌生人”
04:31
"No one's going to rent out a space
in their home to a stranger."
in their home to a stranger."
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当然，后来证明大家是错的
04:34
Of course, people proved that wrong.
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但是它成功的一个原因
04:36
But one of the reasons it succeeded,
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除了好的商业模式，好创意，强大的执行力之外
04:38
aside from a good business model,
a good idea, great execution,
a good idea, great execution,
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就是时机
04:41
is the timing.
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就在经济危机的最高潮时，该公司出现了
04:42
That company came out
right during the height of the recession
right during the height of the recession
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这时人们真的很需要挣点外快
04:45
when people really needed extra money,
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这或许帮助人们克服了要把自己的
04:47
and that maybe helped people overcome
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房间出租给一个陌生人的障碍
04:48
their objection to renting out
their own home to a stranger.
their own home to a stranger.
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对于Uber，情况相同
04:51
Same thing with Uber.
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04:52
Uber came out,
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Uber的诞生
04:53
incredible company,
incredible business model,
incredible business model,
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难以置信的公司，难以置信的商业模式
也有强大的执行力
04:56
great execution, too.
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但当它们需要拉司机进入到这个体系时
04:57
But the timing was so perfect
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时机恰好是那么完美
04:58
for their need to get drivers
into the system.
into the system.
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05:00
Drivers were looking for extra money;
it was very, very important.
it was very, very important.
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司机们正需要挣外快，这点至关重要
05:03
Some of our early successes, Citysearch,
came out when people needed web pages.
came out when people needed web pages.
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我们早期的一些成功范例，像Citysearch城市搜索，就在大家需要网页的时候诞生了
GoTo.com，这个我们早在1998年就在Ted上说过
05:07
GoTo.com, which we announced
actually at TED in 1998,
actually at TED in 1998,
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05:10
was when companies were looking for
cost-effective ways to get traffic.
cost-effective ways to get traffic.
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是在公司寻找划算的获得流量的方法时诞生的
我们曾经认为创意是那么重要
05:13
We thought the idea was so great,
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然而实际上，时机或许更重要些
05:15
but actually, the timing was probably
maybe more important.
maybe more important.
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然后是一些失败的例子
05:17
And then some of our failures.
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我们曾创立过一个叫Z.com的线上娱乐公司
05:19
We started a company called Z.com,
it was an online entertainment company.
it was an online entertainment company.
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我们对此满怀期待
05:22
We were so excited about it --
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我们筹集了大量的资金，我们有一个很棒的商业模式
05:24
we raised enough money,
we had a great business model,
we had a great business model,
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甚至我们还将伟大的好莱坞天才们签进公司
05:26
we even signed incredibly great
Hollywood talent to join the company.
Hollywood talent to join the company.
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但1999到2000年的宽带普及程度实在太低
05:29
But broadband penetration
was too low in 1999-2000.
was too low in 1999-2000.
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05:32
It was too hard to watch
video content online,
video content online,
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要想在网上看视频太困难了
05:34
you had to put codecs in your browser
and do all this stuff,
and do all this stuff,
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你不得不向浏览器加入多媒体数字信号编解码器，要加入所有编解码器，
05:37
and the company eventually
went out of business in 2003.
went out of business in 2003.
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最后这家公司最终在2003年退出了市场
仅仅在两年之后
05:39
Just two years later,
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当Adobe flash 解决了编解码问题
05:41
when the codec problem
was solved by Adobe Flash
was solved by Adobe Flash
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05:43
and when broadband penetration
crossed 50 percent in America,
crossed 50 percent in America,
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并且全美的宽带普及度达到50%后
05:47
YouTube was perfectly timed.
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YouTube正中时机
05:49
Great idea, but unbelievable timing.
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好的创意，不可思议的时机
05:51
In fact, YouTube didn't even have
a business model when it first started.
a business model when it first started.
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事实上，YouTube 一开始都没有一个商业模式
也不确定它是否会成功
05:54
It wasn't even certain that
that would work out.
that would work out.
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但它是如此漂亮地正中时机
05:57
But that was beautifully,
beautifully timed.
beautifully timed.
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所以总结来说，我要说的就是
05:59
So what I would say, in summary,
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执行力真的很重要
06:00
is execution definitely matters a lot.
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创意很重要
06:03
The idea matters a lot.
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但是，时机更重要
06:04
But timing might matter even more.
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06:06
And the best way to really assess timing
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而真正要去评估时机的最佳方法
06:08
is to really look at whether
consumers are really ready
consumers are really ready
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就是真的去考察消费者是否真的做好准备
06:11
for what you have to offer them.
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为你所提供的服务做好准备
06:12
And to be really, really honest about it,
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对此，一定要实事求是
不要否认你所看到的任何结果
06:14
not be in denial about
any results that you see,
any results that you see,
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因为如果你有喜爱的东西，你会想推动它
06:16
because if you have something you love,
you want to push it forward,
you want to push it forward,
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但你不得不对时机这个因素非常非常的诚实
06:20
but you have to be very, very honest
about that factor on timing.
about that factor on timing.
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正如我之前所说
06:23
As I said earlier,
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06:24
I think startups can change the world
and make the world a better place.
and make the world a better place.
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我认为创业公司可以改变世界，让世界更加美好
我希望这些见解
06:27
I hope some of these insights
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可以帮助你们提高一点点成功的几率
06:28
can maybe help you
have a slightly higher success ratio,
have a slightly higher success ratio,
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这样就可以给世界带来一点
06:31
and thus make something great
come to the world
come to the world
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06:33
that wouldn't have happened otherwise.
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本不会发生的好的改变
06:35
Thank you very much,
you've been a great audience.
you've been a great audience.
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十分感谢，你已经是一名伟大的听众。
（鼓掌）
06:37
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bill Gross - Idea guyBill Gross founded Idealab, an incubator of new inventions, ideas and businesses.
Why you should listen
Bill Gross is the founder of Idealab, a business incubator focused on new ideas. (He's now the chair and CEO.) He helped create GoTo.com, the first sponsored search company. He also created the Snap! search engine, which allows users to preview hyperlinks.
Gross has been an entrepreneur since high school, when he founded a solar energy company. In college, he patented a new loudspeaker design, and after school he started a company that was later acquired by Lotus, and then launched an educational software publishing company. Now, he serves on the boards of companies in the areas of automation, software and renewable energy.
Bill Gross | Speaker | TED.com