TED2015
Bill Gross: The single biggest reason why start-ups succeed
比爾·格羅斯: 創業成功最關鍵的因素
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Readability: 4.3
7,578,583 views
比爾·格羅斯創立很多公司，他很好奇，為什麼有的公司成功，有的失敗。所以他收集數百家公司的資料，包括他自己創立的公司以及別人創立的公司，他針對五個因素排名，他發現有一個因素特別顯著，這讓他感到驚訝。
Bill Gross - Idea guy
Bill Gross founded Idealab, an incubator of new inventions, ideas and businesses. Full bio
Bill Gross founded Idealab, an incubator of new inventions, ideas and businesses. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I'm really excited to share with you
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我非常高興與大家分享
00:14
some findings that really surprise me
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令我非常驚訝的研究結果
00:17
about what makes companies
succeed the most,
succeed the most,
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是有關創業成功的關鍵因素
00:20
what factors actually matter the most
for startup success.
for startup success.
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實際影響創業成功與否
最關鍵的因素是什麼
最關鍵的因素是什麼
00:25
I believe that the startup organization
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我認為創業
00:27
is one of the greatest forms
to make the world a better place.
to make the world a better place.
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是使得世界變得更加美好的方式之一
00:31
If you take a group of people
with the right equity incentives
with the right equity incentives
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如果你帶領一組團隊
給他們適當的激勵獎金
給他們適當的激勵獎金
00:34
and organize them in a startup,
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開創一個事業
00:36
you can unlock human potential
in a way never before possible.
in a way never before possible.
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你可以用前所未有的方式
開啟人類的潛能
開啟人類的潛能
00:40
You get them to achieve
unbelievable things.
unbelievable things.
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你讓團隊達到令人難以置信的成功
00:43
But if the startup
organization is so great,
organization is so great,
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但是既然創業是如此美好
00:45
why do so many fail?
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為什麼有這麼多人失敗？
00:47
That's what I wanted to find out.
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這是我想要找出原因的地方
00:48
I wanted to find out what
actually matters most
actually matters most
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我想要找出導致創業成功
00:51
for startup success.
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最關鍵的因素
00:52
And I wanted to try
to be systematic about it,
to be systematic about it,
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而且我試著系統化地找出關鍵因素
00:54
avoid some of my instincts
and maybe misperceptions I have
and maybe misperceptions I have
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以避免我的直覺
和我的認知錯誤影響結果
和我的認知錯誤影響結果
00:57
from so many companies
I've seen over the years.
I've seen over the years.
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我觀察多年來我見過的許多公司
01:00
I wanted to know this
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想要了解創業成功的關鍵因素
01:01
because I've been starting businesses
since I was 12 years old
since I was 12 years old
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因為我從十二歲就開始做生意
01:04
when I sold candy at the bus stop
in junior high school,
in junior high school,
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就讀初中時，我在公車站賣糖果
01:07
to high school, when I made
solar energy devices,
solar energy devices,
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高中時，我製作太陽能的裝置
01:09
to college, when I made loudspeakers.
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大學時，我製作擴音器
01:11
And when I graduated from college,
I started software companies.
I started software companies.
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大學畢業後，我成立軟體公司
01:14
And 20 years ago,
I started Idealab,
I started Idealab,
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20 年前，我成立一家公司叫
「創意實驗室」(Idealab)
「創意實驗室」(Idealab)
01:16
and in the last 20 years,
we started more than 100 companies,
we started more than 100 companies,
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在這 20 年當中，我創辦超過 100 家公司
01:19
many successes, and many big failures.
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很多是成功的企業，但也有很失敗的
01:21
We learned a lot from those failures.
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我們從失敗中學到許多寶貴經驗
01:23
So I tried to look across what factors
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所以我試著找出是什麼因素
01:26
accounted the most for company
success and failure.
success and failure.
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導致一家公司成功或失敗
01:29
So I looked at these five.
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我找出五個因素
01:31
First, the idea.
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第一個因素是，創意
01:32
I used to think that
the idea was everything.
the idea was everything.
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我以前認為有創新的點子最重要
01:34
I named my company Idealab
for how much I worship
for how much I worship
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我把我的公司名為「創意實驗室」
就知道我多麼看重這個因素
就知道我多麼看重這個因素
01:36
the "aha!" moment when you first
come up with the idea.
come up with the idea.
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「啊！有了！」的當下
有一個想法從腦中浮現
有一個想法從腦中浮現
01:39
But then over time,
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但隨著時間的過去
01:40
I came to think that maybe the team,
the execution, adaptability,
the execution, adaptability,
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我開始想或許團隊成員、執行力及適應力
01:43
that mattered even more than the idea.
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甚至比創意還重要
01:46
I never thought I'd be quoting
boxer Mike Tyson on the TED stage,
boxer Mike Tyson on the TED stage,
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我從沒想過會在 TED 講台上
引用拳擊手麥克・泰森的話
引用拳擊手麥克・泰森的話
01:50
but he once said,
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但他曾經說過
01:52
"Everybody has a plan, until they get
punched in the face." (Laughter)
punched in the face." (Laughter)
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「每個人都有自己的計畫，
直到他們臉上挨了一拳」（笑聲）
直到他們臉上挨了一拳」（笑聲）
01:56
And I think that's so true
about business as well.
about business as well.
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這句話可以完全適用在商場上
01:59
So much about a team's execution
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團隊有是否有很強的執行力
02:02
is its ability to adapt to getting punched
in the face by the customer.
in the face by the customer.
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完全在於他們能否能適應
被客戶拳頭打在臉上的能力
被客戶拳頭打在臉上的能力
02:05
The customer is the true reality.
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客戶的反應才是真正的現實
02:07
And that's why I came to think
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這就是為何我開始思考
02:09
that the team maybe
was the most important thing.
was the most important thing.
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或許團隊才是最重要的因素
02:12
Then I started looking
at the business model.
at the business model.
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然後我又開始研究「商業模式」
02:14
Does the company have a very clear path
generating customer revenues?
generating customer revenues?
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一個企業有明確的產生營收的方法嗎？
02:17
That started rising to the top
in my thinking
in my thinking
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因此我開始思考
02:19
about maybe what mattered
most for success.
most for success.
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或許這才是成功最關鍵的因素
02:21
Then I looked at the funding.
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然後，我也考慮「募資」這個因素
02:23
Sometimes companies received
intense amounts of funding.
intense amounts of funding.
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有時後，企業籌得一大筆資金
02:25
Maybe that's the most important thing?
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或許這才是最重要因素？
02:27
And then of course,
the timing.
the timing.
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再來當然是「時機」
02:29
Is the idea way too early and
the world's not ready for it?
the world's not ready for it?
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你腦海中的那個想法
會不會現在還不適用呢？
會不會現在還不適用呢？
02:32
Is it early, as in, you're in advance
and you have to educate the world?
and you have to educate the world?
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會不會現在開始還太早?
你必須教育消費者？
你必須教育消費者？
02:35
Is it just right?
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時機點剛剛好？
02:36
Or is it too late, and there's
already too many competitors?
already too many competitors?
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或者太晚，市場上早已有大批的競爭者？
02:39
So I tried to look very carefully
at these five factors
at these five factors
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我試著仔細地以這五個因素
02:41
across many companies.
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用來研究大量的公司
02:42
And I looked across all 100
Idealab companies,
Idealab companies,
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包括我創立的一百家公司
02:45
and 100 non-Idealab companies
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和一百家非我創立的公司
02:46
to try and come up with
something scientific about it.
something scientific about it.
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試著以科學方法找出關鍵的因素
02:49
So first, on these Idealab companies,
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首先，在我成立的公司
02:51
the top five companies --
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其中最成功的五家公司
02:53
Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo,
NetZero, Tickets.com --
NetZero, Tickets.com --
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Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo,
Net Zero, Tickets.com
Net Zero, Tickets.com
02:57
those all became billion-dollar successes.
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這五家公司非常賺錢
02:59
And the five companies on the bottom --
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而五家最差的公司，分別是
03:01
Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife,
Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --
Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --
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Z.com, Insider Page, MyLife,
Desktop Factory, poeplelink，
Desktop Factory, poeplelink，
03:03
we all had high hopes for,
but didn't succeed.
but didn't succeed.
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我們對這些公司抱有很高的期望
但仍然沒有成功
但仍然沒有成功
03:06
So I tried to rank across all
of those attributes
of those attributes
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所以試著找出這些因素的排名
03:09
how I felt those companies scored
on each of those dimensions.
on each of those dimensions.
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這些公司如何在每一個因素中取得分數
03:13
And then for non-Idealab companies,
I looked at wild successes,
I looked at wild successes,
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在非我建立的公司名單中
我找了一些極度成功的例子
我找了一些極度成功的例子
03:16
like Airbnb and Instagram and Uber
and Youtube and LinkedIn.
and Youtube and LinkedIn.
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Airbnb, Instagram, Uber
YouTube 和 Linkedin.
YouTube 和 Linkedin.
03:20
And some failures:
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也找了一些失敗的公司
03:21
Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com
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像是 Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com
03:23
Flooz and Friendster.
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Flooz 和 Friendster
03:24
The bottom companies had intense funding,
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這些不成功的公司，籌得大筆資金
03:26
they even had business models
in some cases,
in some cases,
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有的甚至有商業模式
03:28
but they didn't succeed.
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但是沒能成功
03:29
I tried to look at what factors
actually accounted the most
actually accounted the most
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我試著研究，什麼因素
對這些公司的成功和失敗
對這些公司的成功和失敗
03:32
for success and failure across
all of these companies,
all of these companies,
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佔有最高的比率
03:35
and the results really surprised me.
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結果讓我很訝異
03:37
The number one thing was timing.
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最重要的因素是「時機」
03:39
Timing accounted for 42 percent
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時機佔 42%
03:42
of the difference
between success and failure.
between success and failure.
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這個比率是成功與失敗公司之間的差異
03:44
Team and execution came in second,
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「團隊」和「執行力」排第二名
03:46
and the idea,
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然後是「創意」
03:47
the differentiability of the idea,
the uniqueness of the idea,
the uniqueness of the idea,
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創意的可辨性，創意的獨特性
03:50
that actually came in third.
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實際上排第三名
03:51
Now, this isn't absolutely definitive,
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這個研究並不是絶對完整
03:53
it's not to say that
the idea isn't important,
the idea isn't important,
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並不是說「創意」不重要
03:56
but it very much surprised me that
the idea wasn't the most important thing.
the idea wasn't the most important thing.
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但令我訝異的是「創意」不是最重要的
03:59
Sometimes it mattered more when
it was actually timed.
it was actually timed.
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有時比較重要的，其實是「時機」
04:02
The last two, business model and funding,
made sense to me actually.
made sense to me actually.
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最後二個是「商業模式」和「募資」
這是可以理解的
這是可以理解的
04:05
I think business model
makes sense to be that low
makes sense to be that low
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我想「商業模式」
獲得較低的排名是有道理的
獲得較低的排名是有道理的
04:08
because you can start out
without a business model
without a business model
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因為沒有商業模式，也可以創業
04:10
and add one later if your customers
are demanding what you're creating.
are demanding what you're creating.
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你的客戶有需求時，再將商業模式加入
04:13
And funding, I think as well,
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募資也是一樣道理
04:15
if you're underfunded at first
but you're gaining traction,
but you're gaining traction,
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即使剛開始沒有資金
但公司越來越受歡迎
但公司越來越受歡迎
04:18
especially in today's age,
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尤其是現在這時代
04:19
it's very, very easy to get
intense funding.
intense funding.
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你就很容易籌得一大筆資金
04:21
So now let me give you some specific
examples about each of these.
examples about each of these.
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讓我舉幾一些具體的例子
04:24
So take a wild success like Airbnb
that everybody knows about.
that everybody knows about.
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例如，大家熟知的、高度成功的 Airbnb
04:27
Well, that company was famously
passed on by many smart investors
passed on by many smart investors
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這間公司被許多聰明的投資者忽略
04:30
because people thought,
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因為大家認為
04:31
"No one's going to rent out a space
in their home to a stranger."
in their home to a stranger."
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「沒有人要將自家的房間出租給陌生人」
04:34
Of course, people proved that wrong.
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但事實證明這個想法是錯的
04:36
But one of the reasons it succeeded,
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它成功的因素之一
04:38
aside from a good business model,
a good idea, great execution,
a good idea, great execution,
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除了好的商業模式
好創意及優秀的執行力外
好創意及優秀的執行力外
04:41
is the timing.
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那就是「時機」
04:42
That company came out
right during the height of the recession
right during the height of the recession
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公司創立之時
剛好是在經濟衰退的高點
剛好是在經濟衰退的高點
04:45
when people really needed extra money,
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人們需要額外的收入
04:47
and that maybe helped people overcome
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這或許可以幫助人們克服
04:48
their objection to renting out
their own home to a stranger.
their own home to a stranger.
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不喜歡將自己的房間出租給陌生人心態
04:51
Same thing with Uber.
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優步 (Uber) 也是相同的情況
04:52
Uber came out,
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優步成立之時
04:53
incredible company,
incredible business model,
incredible business model,
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是個相當不錯的公司
具有優異的商業模式
具有優異的商業模式
04:56
great execution, too.
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也有很強的執行力
04:57
But the timing was so perfect
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成立的時間點是如此完美
04:58
for their need to get drivers
into the system.
into the system.
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他們需要將計程車司機納入公司系統
05:00
Drivers were looking for extra money;
it was very, very important.
it was very, very important.
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而司機也在尋找額外的收入
這一點相當重要
這一點相當重要
05:03
Some of our early successes, Citysearch,
came out when people needed web pages.
came out when people needed web pages.
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「Citysearch」是我們早期成功的公司，
因應當時人們有網頁的需求而成立
因應當時人們有網頁的需求而成立
05:07
GoTo.com, which we announced
actually at TED in 1998,
actually at TED in 1998,
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我們在 1998 年在 TED 發表 GoTo.com
05:10
was when companies were looking for
cost-effective ways to get traffic.
cost-effective ways to get traffic.
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正逢當時企業在尋找符合成本效益
的方法，取得網路流量
的方法，取得網路流量
05:13
We thought the idea was so great,
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我們認為想這個點子真好
05:15
but actually, the timing was probably
maybe more important.
maybe more important.
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但事實上，時機或許更重要
05:17
And then some of our failures.
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我們也有一些失敗公司的例子
05:19
We started a company called Z.com,
it was an online entertainment company.
it was an online entertainment company.
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我們成立一家公司稱為 Z.com
是一家線上娛樂公司
是一家線上娛樂公司
05:22
We were so excited about it --
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我們對這家公司充滿期望
05:24
we raised enough money,
we had a great business model,
we had a great business model,
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我們籌措足夠的資金
具備很好的商業模式
具備很好的商業模式
05:26
we even signed incredibly great
Hollywood talent to join the company.
Hollywood talent to join the company.
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甚至與好萊塢極的優秀人才簽約
加入這個公司
加入這個公司
05:29
But broadband penetration
was too low in 1999-2000.
was too low in 1999-2000.
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但在 1999-2000 年
寬頻的普及率太低
寬頻的普及率太低
05:32
It was too hard to watch
video content online,
video content online,
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人們要在網路觀看影片很困難
05:34
you had to put codecs in your browser
and do all this stuff,
and do all this stuff,
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我們必須在用戶端的瀏覽器置入轉碼器
協助用戶完成這個工作
協助用戶完成這個工作
05:37
and the company eventually
went out of business in 2003.
went out of business in 2003.
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這公司最後在 2003 年結束營業
05:39
Just two years later,
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僅儘二年之後
05:41
when the codec problem
was solved by Adobe Flash
was solved by Adobe Flash
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Adobe Flash 解決了轉碼的問題
05:43
and when broadband penetration
crossed 50 percent in America,
crossed 50 percent in America,
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並且，美國的寬頻普及率超過百分之五十
05:47
YouTube was perfectly timed.
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YouTube 就在這樣一個
完美的時間點成立了
完美的時間點成立了
05:49
Great idea, but unbelievable timing.
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好的創意，配上絕佳的時機
05:51
In fact, YouTube didn't even have
a business model when it first started.
a business model when it first started.
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事實上，YouTube 在成立之初
並沒有商業模式
並沒有商業模式
05:54
It wasn't even certain that
that would work out.
that would work out.
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甚至不確定他們會成功
05:57
But that was beautifully,
beautifully timed.
beautifully timed.
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但它就成功在於遇上如此完美的時間點
05:59
So what I would say, in summary,
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總之，我要表達的是
06:00
is execution definitely matters a lot.
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「執行力」當然重要
06:03
The idea matters a lot.
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「創意」也很重要
06:04
But timing might matter even more.
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但「時機」更加重要
06:06
And the best way to really assess timing
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評估時機最好的方式
06:08
is to really look at whether
consumers are really ready
consumers are really ready
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是觀察消費者是否已經準備好
06:11
for what you have to offer them.
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接受你要提供給他們的產品或服務
06:12
And to be really, really honest about it,
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你要非常、非常誠實地考慮這個問題
06:14
not be in denial about
any results that you see,
any results that you see,
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不要否認你所看到的結果
06:16
because if you have something you love,
you want to push it forward,
you want to push it forward,
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因為如果有你喜歡的事業
你要往前推動
你要往前推動
06:20
but you have to be very, very honest
about that factor on timing.
about that factor on timing.
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你就必須非常誠實地考慮
「時機」這個因素
「時機」這個因素
06:23
As I said earlier,
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如我稍早所說的
06:24
I think startups can change the world
and make the world a better place.
and make the world a better place.
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創業可以改變這個世界
讓世界變得更美好
讓世界變得更美好
06:27
I hope some of these insights
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我希望今天的這些觀察
06:28
can maybe help you
have a slightly higher success ratio,
have a slightly higher success ratio,
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或許可以幫助你提升創業成功率
06:31
and thus make something great
come to the world
come to the world
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讓那些原本可能不會發生的創意點子
06:33
that wouldn't have happened otherwise.
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在現實世界裡開花結果
06:35
Thank you very much,
you've been a great audience.
you've been a great audience.
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謝謝大家，你們是很棒的聽眾
06:37
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bill Gross - Idea guyBill Gross founded Idealab, an incubator of new inventions, ideas and businesses.
Why you should listen
Bill Gross is the founder of Idealab, a business incubator focused on new ideas. (He's now the chair and CEO.) He helped create GoTo.com, the first sponsored search company. He also created the Snap! search engine, which allows users to preview hyperlinks.
Gross has been an entrepreneur since high school, when he founded a solar energy company. In college, he patented a new loudspeaker design, and after school he started a company that was later acquired by Lotus, and then launched an educational software publishing company. Now, he serves on the boards of companies in the areas of automation, software and renewable energy.
Bill Gross | Speaker | TED.com