ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Elon Musk - Serial entrepreneur
Elon Musk is the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors and the CEO/CTO of Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX).

Why you should listen

At SpaceX, Musk oversees the development of rockets and spacecraft for missions to Earth orbit and ultimately to other planets. In 2008, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon spacecraft won the NASA contract to provide cargo transport to space. In 2012, SpaceX became the first commercial company to dock with the International Space Station and return cargo to Earth with the Dragon.

At Tesla, Musk has overseen product development and design from the beginning, including the all-electric Tesla Roadster, Model S and Model X, and the rollout of Supercharger stations to keep the cars juiced up. (Some of the charging stations use solar energy systems from SolarCity, of which Musk is the non-executive chair.) Transitioning to a sustainable energy economy, in which electric vehicles play a pivotal role, has been one of his central interests for almost two decades. He co-founded PayPal and served as the company's chair and CEO.

More profile about the speaker
Elon Musk | Speaker | TED.com
TED2017

Elon Musk: The future we're building -- and boring

Filmed:
16,113,964 views

Elon Musk discusses his new project digging tunnels under LA, the latest from Tesla and SpaceX and his motivation for building a future on Mars in conversation with TED's Head Curator, Chris Anderson.
- Serial entrepreneur
Elon Musk is the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors and the CEO/CTO of Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX). Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
Chris Anderson:
Elon, hey, welcome back to TED.
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It's great to have you here.
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Elon Musk: Thanks for having me.
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CA: So, in the next half hour or so,
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we're going to spend some time
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exploring your vision for what
an exciting future might look like,
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which I guess makes
the first question a little ironic:
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Why are you boring?
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EM: Yeah.
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I ask myself that frequently.
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We're trying to dig a hole under LA,
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and this is to create the beginning
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of what will hopefully
be a 3D network of tunnels
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to alleviate congestion.
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So right now, one of the most
soul-destroying things is traffic.
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It affects people
in every part of the world.
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It takes away so much of your life.
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It's horrible.
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It's particularly horrible in LA.
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01:09
(Laughter)
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01:12
CA: I think you've brought with you
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the first visualization
that's been shown of this.
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Can I show this?
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EM: Yeah, absolutely.
So this is the first time --
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Just to show what we're talking about.
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01:22
So a couple of key things
that are important
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in having a 3D tunnel network.
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First of all, you have to be able
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to integrate the entrance
and exit of the tunnel
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seamlessly into the fabric of the city.
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So by having an elevator,
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sort of a car skate,
that's on an elevator,
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you can integrate the entrance
and exits to the tunnel network
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just by using two parking spaces.
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And then the car gets on a skate.
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There's no speed limit here,
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so we're designing this to be able
to operate at 200 kilometers an hour.
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CA: How much?
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EM: 200 kilometers an hour,
or about 130 miles per hour.
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So you should be able
to get from, say, Westwood to LAX
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in six minutes -- five, six minutes.
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02:13
(Applause)
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CA: So possibly, initially done,
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it's like on a sort
of toll road-type basis.
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EM: Yeah.
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CA: Which, I guess,
alleviates some traffic
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from the surface streets as well.
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EM: So, I don't know
if people noticed it in the video,
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but there's no real limit
to how many levels of tunnel you can have.
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You can go much further deep
than you can go up.
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The deepest mines are much deeper
than the tallest buildings are tall,
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so you can alleviate any arbitrary
level of urban congestion
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with a 3D tunnel network.
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This is a very important point.
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So a key rebuttal to the tunnels
is that if you add one layer of tunnels,
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that will simply alleviate congestion,
it will get used up,
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and then you'll be back where you started,
back with congestion.
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But you can go to any
arbitrary number of tunnels,
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any number of levels.
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CA: But people -- seen traditionally,
it's incredibly expensive to dig,
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and that would block this idea.
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EM: Yeah.
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Well, they're right.
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To give you an example,
the LA subway extension,
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which is -- I think it's
a two-and-a-half mile extension
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that was just completed
for two billion dollars.
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So it's roughly a billion dollars a mile
to do the subway extension in LA.
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And this is not the highest
utility subway in the world.
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So yeah, it's quite difficult
to dig tunnels normally.
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I think we need to have
at least a tenfold improvement
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in the cost per mile of tunneling.
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CA: And how could you achieve that?
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EM: Actually, if you just do two things,
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you can get to approximately
an order of magnitude improvement,
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and I think you can go beyond that.
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So the first thing to do
is to cut the tunnel diameter
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by a factor of two or more.
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So a single road lane tunnel
according to regulations
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has to be 26 feet,
maybe 28 feet in diameter
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to allow for crashes
and emergency vehicles
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and sufficient ventilation
for combustion engine cars.
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But if you shrink that diameter
to what we're attempting,
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which is 12 feet, which is plenty
to get an electric skate through,
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you drop the diameter by a factor of two
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and the cross-sectional area
by a factor of four,
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and the tunneling cost scales
with the cross-sectional area.
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So that's roughly a half-order
of magnitude improvement right there.
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Then tunneling machines currently tunnel
for half the time, then they stop,
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and then the rest of the time
is putting in reinforcements
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for the tunnel wall.
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So if you design the machine instead
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to do continuous
tunneling and reinforcing,
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that will give you
a factor of two improvement.
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Combine that and that's a factor of eight.
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Also these machines are far from being
at their power or thermal limits,
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so you can jack up the power
to the machine substantially.
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I think you can get
at least a factor of two,
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maybe a factor of four or five
improvement on top of that.
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So I think there's a fairly
straightforward series of steps
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to get somewhere in excess
of an order of magnitude improvement
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in the cost per mile,
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and our target actually is --
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we've got a pet snail called Gary,
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this is from Gary the snail
from "South Park,"
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I mean, sorry, "SpongeBob SquarePants."
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(Laughter)
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So Gary is capable of --
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currently he's capable
of going 14 times faster
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than a tunnel-boring machine.
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(Laughter)
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CA: You want to beat Gary.
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EM: We want to beat Gary.
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(Laughter)
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He's not a patient little fellow,
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and that will be victory.
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Victory is beating the snail.
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CA: But a lot of people imagining,
dreaming about future cities,
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they imagine that actually
the solution is flying cars, drones, etc.
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You go aboveground.
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Why isn't that a better solution?
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You save all that tunneling cost.
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EM: Right. I'm in favor of flying things.
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Obviously, I do rockets,
so I like things that fly.
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This is not some inherent bias
against flying things,
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but there is a challenge with flying cars
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in that they'll be quite noisy,
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the wind force generated
will be very high.
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Let's just say that if something's
flying over your head,
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a whole bunch of flying cars
going all over the place,
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that is not an anxiety-reducing situation.
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(Laughter)
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You don't think to yourself,
"Well, I feel better about today."
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You're thinking,
"Did they service their hubcap,
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or is it going to come off
and guillotine me?"
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Things like that.
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CA: So you've got this vision
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of future cities with these rich,
3D networks of tunnels underneath.
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Is there a tie-in here with Hyperloop?
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Could you apply these tunnels
to use for this Hyperloop idea
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you released a few years ago.
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EM: Yeah, so we've been
sort of puttering around
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with the Hyperloop stuff for a while.
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We built a Hyperloop test track
adjacent to SpaceX,
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just for a student competition,
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to encourage innovative
ideas in transport.
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And it actually ends up being
the biggest vacuum chamber in the world
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after the Large Hadron Collider,
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by volume.
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So it was quite fun to do that,
but it was kind of a hobby thing,
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and then we think we might --
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so we've built a little pusher car
to push the student pods,
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but we're going to try seeing
how fast we can make the pusher go
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if it's not pushing something.
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So we're cautiously optimistic
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we'll be able to be faster
than the world's fastest bullet train
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even in a .8-mile stretch.
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CA: Whoa. Good brakes.
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EM: Yeah, I mean, it's -- yeah.
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It's either going to smash
into tiny pieces or go quite fast.
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CA: But you can picture,
then, a Hyperloop in a tunnel
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running quite long distances.
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EM: Exactly.
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And looking at tunneling technology,
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it turns out that
in order to make a tunnel,
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you have to --
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In order to seal against the water table,
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you've got to typically design
a tunnel wall to be good
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to about five or six atmospheres.
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So to go to vacuum is only one atmosphere,
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or near-vacuum.
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So actually, it sort of turns out
that automatically,
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if you build a tunnel that is good enough
to resist the water table,
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it is automatically
capable of holding vacuum.
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CA: Huh.
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EM: So, yeah.
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CA: And so you could actually picture,
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what kind of length tunnel
is in Elon's future to running Hyperloop?
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EM: I think there's no real length limit.
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You could dig as much as you want.
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I think if you were to do something
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like a DC-to-New York Hyperloop,
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I think you'd probably want
to go underground the entire way
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because it's a high-density area.
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You're going under
a lot of buildings and houses,
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and if you go deep enough,
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you cannot detect the tunnel.
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Sometimes people think,
well, it's going to be pretty annoying
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to have a tunnel dug under my house.
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Like, if that tunnel is dug
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more than about three or four
tunnel diameters beneath your house,
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you will not be able
to detect it being dug at all.
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In fact, if you're able
to detect the tunnel being dug,
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whatever device you are using,
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you can get a lot of money
for that device from the Israeli military,
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who is trying to detect
tunnels from Hamas,
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and from the US Customs and Border patrol
that try and detect drug tunnels.
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So the reality is
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that earth is incredibly good
at absorbing vibrations,
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and once the tunnel depth
is below a certain level,
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it is undetectable.
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Maybe if you have a very sensitive
seismic instrument,
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you might be able to detect it.
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CA: So you've started
a new company to do this
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called The Boring Company.
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Very nice. Very funny.
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(Laughter)
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EM: What's funny about that?
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(Laughter)
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CA: How much of your time is this?
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EM: It's maybe ...
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two or three percent.
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CA: You've bought a hobby.
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This is what an Elon Musk
hobby looks like.
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(Laughter)
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EM: I mean, it really is, like --
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This is basically interns
and people doing it part time.
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We bought some second-hand machinery.
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It's kind of puttering along,
but it's making good progress, so --
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CA: So an even bigger part of your time
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is being spent on electrifying
cars and transport through Tesla.
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Is one of the motivations
for the tunneling project
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the realization that actually,
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in a world where cars are electric
and where they're self-driving,
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there may end up being
more cars on the roads
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on any given hour than there are now?
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EM: Yeah, exactly.
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A lot of people think
that when you make cars autonomous,
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they'll be able to go faster
and that will alleviate congestion.
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And to some degree that will be true,
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but once you have shared autonomy
where it's much cheaper to go by car
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and you can go point to point,
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the affordability of going in a car
will be better than that of a bus.
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Like, it will cost less than a bus ticket.
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So the amount of driving that will occur
will be much greater with shared autonomy,
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and actually traffic will get far worse.
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CA: You started Tesla
with the goal of persuading the world
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that electrification
was the future of cars,
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and a few years ago,
people were laughing at you.
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Now, not so much.
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EM: OK.
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(Laughter)
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I don't know. I don't know.
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CA: But isn't it true that pretty much
every auto manufacturer
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has announced
serious electrification plans
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for the short- to medium-term future?
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EM: Yeah. Yeah.
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I think almost every automaker
has some electric vehicle program.
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They vary in seriousness.
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Some are very serious
about transitioning entirely to electric,
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and some are just dabbling in it.
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And some, amazingly,
are still pursuing fuel cells,
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but I think that won't last much longer.
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CA: But isn't there a sense, though, Elon,
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where you can now just declare victory
and say, you know, "We did it."
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Let the world electrify,
and you go on and focus on other stuff?
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EM: Yeah.
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I intend to stay with Tesla
as far into the future as I can imagine,
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and there are a lot of exciting
things that we have coming.
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Obviously the Model 3 is coming soon.
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We'll be unveiling the Tesla Semi truck.
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CA: OK, we're going to come to this.
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So Model 3, it's supposed
to be coming in July-ish.
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EM: Yeah, it's looking quite good
for starting production in July.
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CA: Wow.
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One of the things
that people are so excited about
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is the fact that it's got autopilot.
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And you put out this video a while back
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showing what that technology
would look like.
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EM: Yeah.
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There's obviously autopilot
in Model S right now.
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What are we seeing here?
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EM: Yeah, so this is using
only cameras and GPS.
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So there's no LIDAR
or radar being used here.
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This is just using passive optical,
which is essentially what a person uses.
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The whole road system
is meant to be navigated
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with passive optical, or cameras,
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and so once you solve cameras
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or vision,
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then autonomy is solved.
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If you don't solve vision,
it's not solved.
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So that's why our focus is
so heavily on having a vision neural net
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that's very effective for road conditions.
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CA: Right. Many other people
are going the LIDAR route.
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You want cameras plus radar is most of it.
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EM: You can absolutely
be superhuman with just cameras.
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Like, you can probably do it
ten times better than humans would,
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just cameras.
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CA: So the new cars being sold right now
have eight cameras in them.
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They can't yet do what that showed.
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When will they be able to?
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EM: I think we're still on track
for being able to go cross-country
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15:14
from LA to New York by the end
of the year, fully autonomous.
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CA: OK, so by the end
of the year, you're saying,
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someone's going to sit in a Tesla
without touching the steering wheel,
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tap in "New York," off it goes.
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EM: Yeah.
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CA: Won't ever have to touch the wheel --
by the end of 2017.
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EM: Yeah. Essentially,
November or December of this year,
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15:38
we should be able to go all the way
from a parking lot in California
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15:43
to a parking lot in New York,
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15:45
no controls touched at any point
during the entire journey.
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(Applause)
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15:50
CA: Amazing.
302
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15:52
But part of that is possible
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15:53
because you've already got a fleet
of Teslas driving all these roads.
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You're accumulating a huge amount
of data of that national road system.
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16:03
EM: Yes, but the thing
that will be interesting
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16:06
is that I'm actually fairly confident
it will be able to do that route
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16:12
even if you change the route dynamically.
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16:16
So, it's fairly easy --
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If you say I'm going to be really good
at one specific route, that's one thing,
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16:23
but it should be able to go,
really be very good,
311
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16:28
certainly once you enter a highway,
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16:30
to go anywhere on the highway system
313
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16:33
in a given country.
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So it's not sort of limited
to LA to New York.
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16:38
We could change it
and make it Seattle-Florida,
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16:41
that day, in real time.
317
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16:44
So you were going from LA to New York.
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16:46
Now go from LA to Toronto.
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16:50
CA: So leaving aside
regulation for a second,
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in terms of the technology alone,
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the time when someone
will be able to buy one of your cars
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and literally just take the hands
off the wheel and go to sleep
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17:03
and wake up and find that they've arrived,
324
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17:05
how far away is that, to do that safely?
325
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17:07
EM: I think that's about two years.
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17:09
So the real trick of it
is not how do you make it work
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17:13
say 99.9 percent of the time,
328
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17:16
because, like, if a car crashes
one in a thousand times,
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17:20
then you're probably still not going
to be comfortable falling asleep.
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17:27
You shouldn't be, certainly.
331
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17:29
(Laughter)
332
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17:32
It's never going to be perfect.
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17:34
No system is going to be perfect,
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17:36
but if you say it's perhaps --
335
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17:40
the car is unlikely to crash
336
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17:42
in a hundred lifetimes,
or a thousand lifetimes,
337
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17:46
then people are like, OK, wow,
if I were to live a thousand lives,
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17:50
I would still most likely
never experience a crash,
339
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17:53
then that's probably OK.
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17:54
CA: To sleep.
341
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17:55
I guess the big concern of yours
is that people may actually
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17:58
get seduced too early
to think that this is safe,
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2296
18:00
and that you'll have some horrible
incident happen that puts things back.
344
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18:05
EM: Well, I think that the autonomy system
is likely to at least mitigate the crash,
345
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6016
18:11
except in rare circumstances.
346
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18:14
The thing to appreciate
about vehicle safety
347
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18:16
is this is probabilistic.
348
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3400
18:20
I mean, there's some chance that any time
a human driver gets in a car,
349
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18:24
that they will have an accident
that is their fault.
350
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18:27
It's never zero.
351
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1320
18:29
So really the key threshold for autonomy
352
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18:33
is how much better does autonomy
need to be than a person
353
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18:38
before you can rely on it?
354
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18:39
CA: But once you get
literally safe hands-off driving,
355
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3416
18:43
the power to disrupt
the whole industry seems massive,
356
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2816
18:45
because at that point you've spoken
of people being able to buy a car,
357
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4376
18:50
drops you off at work,
and then you let it go
358
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18:52
and provide a sort of Uber-like
service to other people,
359
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3976
18:56
earn you money,
360
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1216
18:57
maybe even cover the cost
of your lease of that car,
361
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19:00
so you can kind of get a car for free.
362
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19:02
Is that really likely?
363
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19:03
EM: Yeah. Absolutely
this is what will happen.
364
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19:06
So there will be a shared autonomy fleet
365
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1976
19:08
where you buy your car
366
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19:09
and you can choose
to use that car exclusively,
367
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3416
19:13
you could choose to have it be used
only by friends and family,
368
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3696
19:16
only by other drivers
who are rated five star,
369
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5056
19:21
you can choose to share it sometimes
but not other times.
370
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4880
19:28
That's 100 percent what will occur.
371
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19:31
It's just a question of when.
372
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1381
19:33
CA: Wow.
373
1161960
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19:35
So you mentioned the Semi
374
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19:37
and I think you're planning
to announce this in September,
375
1165440
2736
19:40
but I'm curious whether there's
anything you could show us today?
376
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3096
19:43
EM: I will show you
a teaser shot of the truck.
377
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19:47
(Laughter)
378
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19:49
It's alive.
379
1177720
1936
19:51
CA: OK.
380
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1216
19:52
EM: That's definitely a case
where we want to be cautious
381
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2696
19:55
about the autonomy features.
382
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1334
19:58
Yeah.
383
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1216
19:59
(Laughter)
384
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1616
20:01
CA: We can't see that much of it,
385
1189240
1616
20:02
but it doesn't look like
just a little friendly neighborhood truck.
386
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3216
20:06
It looks kind of badass.
387
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20:07
What sort of semi is this?
388
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3160
20:11
EM: So this is a heavy duty,
long-range semitruck.
389
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4576
20:15
So it's the highest weight capability
390
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4256
20:20
and with long range.
391
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3056
20:23
So essentially it's meant to alleviate
the heavy-duty trucking loads.
392
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5440
20:29
And this is something which
people do not today think is possible.
393
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5296
20:34
They think the truck doesn't have enough
power or it doesn't have enough range,
394
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3736
20:38
and then with the Tesla Semi
395
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2536
20:40
we want to show that no, an electric truck
396
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2656
20:43
actually can out-torque any diesel semi.
397
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6016
20:49
And if you had a tug-of-war competition,
398
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4136
20:53
the Tesla Semi
will tug the diesel semi uphill.
399
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5056
20:58
(Laughter)
400
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2256
21:01
(Applause)
401
1249160
1856
21:03
CA: That's pretty cool.
And short term, these aren't driverless.
402
1251040
3016
21:06
These are going to be trucks
that truck drivers want to drive.
403
1254080
3320
21:10
EM: Yes. So what will be
really fun about this
404
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2616
21:13
is you have a flat torque RPM curve
with an electric motor,
405
1261120
5376
21:18
whereas with a diesel motor or any kind
of internal combustion engine car,
406
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3496
21:22
you've got a torque RPM curve
that looks like a hill.
407
1270040
2600
21:25
So this will be a very spry truck.
408
1273840
2936
21:28
You can drive this
around like a sports car.
409
1276800
2856
21:31
There's no gears.
It's, like, single speed.
410
1279680
2376
21:34
CA: There's a great movie
to be made here somewhere.
411
1282080
2456
21:36
I don't know what it is
and I don't know that it ends well,
412
1284560
2776
21:39
but it's a great movie.
413
1287360
1216
21:40
(Laughter)
414
1288600
1016
21:41
EM: It's quite bizarre test-driving.
415
1289640
2736
21:44
When I was driving the test prototype
for the first truck.
416
1292400
4016
21:48
It's really weird,
because you're driving around
417
1296440
2256
21:50
and you're just so nimble,
and you're in this giant truck.
418
1298720
3096
21:53
CA: Wait, you've
already driven a prototype?
419
1301840
3496
21:57
EM: Yeah, I drove it
around the parking lot,
420
1305360
2096
21:59
and I was like, this is crazy.
421
1307480
1456
22:00
CA: Wow. This is no vaporware.
422
1308960
2176
22:03
EM: It's just like,
driving this giant truck
423
1311160
2096
22:05
and making these mad maneuvers.
424
1313280
1976
22:07
CA: This is cool.
OK, from a really badass picture
425
1315280
2456
22:09
to a kind of less badass picture.
426
1317760
2616
22:12
This is just a cute house
from "Desperate Housewives" or something.
427
1320400
3336
22:15
What on earth is going on here?
428
1323760
3056
22:18
EM: Well, this illustrates
the picture of the future
429
1326840
2456
22:21
that I think is how things will evolve.
430
1329320
2976
22:24
You've got an electric car
in the driveway.
431
1332320
2336
22:26
If you look in between
the electric car and the house,
432
1334680
3736
22:30
there are actually three Powerwalls
stacked up against the side of the house,
433
1338440
3856
22:34
and then that house roof is a solar roof.
434
1342320
2816
22:37
So that's an actual solar glass roof.
435
1345160
2096
22:39
CA: OK.
436
1347280
1216
22:40
EM: That's a picture of a real --
well, admittedly, it's a real fake house.
437
1348520
4256
22:44
That's a real fake house.
438
1352800
1656
22:46
(Laughter)
439
1354480
3096
22:49
CA: So these roof tiles,
440
1357600
1856
22:51
some of them have in them
basically solar power, the ability to --
441
1359480
6136
22:57
EM: Yeah. Solar glass tiles
442
1365640
1696
22:59
where you can adjust
the texture and the color
443
1367360
5096
23:04
to a very fine-grained level,
444
1372480
1976
23:06
and then there's
sort of microlouvers in the glass,
445
1374480
5576
23:12
such that when you're looking
at the roof from street level
446
1380080
3456
23:15
or close to street level,
447
1383560
1696
23:17
all the tiles look the same
448
1385280
2376
23:19
whether there is a solar cell
behind it or not.
449
1387680
5080
23:26
So you have an even color
450
1394000
3416
23:29
from the ground level.
451
1397440
3496
23:32
If you were to look at it
from a helicopter,
452
1400960
2096
23:35
you would be actually able
to look through and see
453
1403080
2376
23:37
that some of the glass tiles have
a solar cell behind them and some do not.
454
1405480
4016
23:41
You can't tell from street level.
455
1409520
1616
23:43
CA: You put them in the ones
that are likely to see a lot of sun,
456
1411160
3056
23:46
and that makes these roofs
super affordable, right?
457
1414240
2376
23:48
They're not that much more expensive
than just tiling the roof.
458
1416640
2976
23:51
EM: Yeah.
459
1419640
1200
23:53
We're very confident
that the cost of the roof
460
1421840
2600
23:57
plus the cost of electricity --
461
1425840
1920
24:01
A solar glass roof will be less
than the cost of a normal roof
462
1429920
2936
24:04
plus the cost of electricity.
463
1432880
1416
24:06
So in other words,
464
1434320
1256
24:07
this will be economically a no-brainer,
465
1435600
4336
24:11
we think it will look great,
466
1439960
1696
24:13
and it will last --
467
1441680
2136
24:15
We thought about having
the warranty be infinity,
468
1443840
3056
24:18
but then people thought,
469
1446920
1216
24:20
well, that might sound
like were just talking rubbish,
470
1448160
2576
24:22
but actually this is toughened glass.
471
1450760
5616
24:28
Well after the house has collapsed
472
1456400
2896
24:31
and there's nothing there,
473
1459320
1896
24:33
the glass tiles will still be there.
474
1461240
3536
24:36
(Applause)
475
1464800
1576
24:38
CA: I mean, this is cool.
476
1466400
1736
24:40
So you're rolling this out
in a couple week's time, I think,
477
1468160
2856
24:43
with four different roofing types.
478
1471040
2536
24:45
EM: Yeah, we're starting off
with two, two initially,
479
1473600
2536
24:48
and the second two
will be introduced early next year.
480
1476160
3176
24:51
CA: And what's the scale of ambition here?
481
1479360
2056
24:53
How many houses do you believe
could end up having this type of roofing?
482
1481440
5520
24:59
EM: I think eventually
483
1487760
1400
25:02
almost all houses will have a solar roof.
484
1490560
3640
25:07
The thing is to consider
the time scale here
485
1495880
3536
25:11
to be probably on the order
486
1499440
2456
25:13
of 40 or 50 years.
487
1501920
3176
25:17
So on average, a roof
is replaced every 20 to 25 years.
488
1505120
4880
25:23
But you don't start replacing
all roofs immediately.
489
1511400
3336
25:26
But eventually,
if you say were to fast-forward
490
1514760
3336
25:30
to say 15 years from now,
491
1518120
3456
25:33
it will be unusual to have a roof
that does not have solar.
492
1521600
3600
25:37
CA: Is there a mental model thing
that people don't get here
493
1525840
2856
25:40
that because of the shift in the cost,
the economics of solar power,
494
1528720
4416
25:45
most houses actually have
enough sunlight on their roof
495
1533160
4096
25:49
pretty much to power all of their needs.
496
1537280
2056
25:51
If you could capture the power,
497
1539360
1896
25:53
it could pretty much
power all their needs.
498
1541280
2056
25:55
You could go off-grid, kind of.
499
1543360
1536
25:56
EM: It depends on where you are
500
1544920
1536
25:58
and what the house size is
relative to the roof area,
501
1546480
3256
26:01
but it's a fair statement to say
502
1549760
1856
26:03
that most houses in the US
have enough roof area
503
1551640
4816
26:08
to power all the needs of the house.
504
1556480
1960
26:11
CA: So the key to the economics
505
1559800
3176
26:15
of the cars, the Semi, of these houses
506
1563000
4016
26:19
is the falling price
of lithium-ion batteries,
507
1567040
3896
26:22
which you've made a huge bet on as Tesla.
508
1570960
2496
26:25
In many ways, that's almost
the core competency.
509
1573480
2256
26:27
And you've decided
510
1575760
2256
26:30
that to really, like, own that competency,
511
1578040
5216
26:35
you just have to build
the world's largest manufacturing plant
512
1583280
3456
26:38
to double the world's supply
of lithium-ion batteries,
513
1586760
3136
26:41
with this guy. What is this?
514
1589920
2296
26:44
EM: Yeah, so that's the Gigafactory,
515
1592240
3456
26:47
progress so far on the Gigafactory.
516
1595720
2696
26:50
Eventually, you can sort of roughly see
517
1598440
1896
26:52
that there's sort of
a diamond shape overall,
518
1600360
2936
26:55
and when it's fully done,
it'll look like a giant diamond,
519
1603320
4616
26:59
or that's the idea behind it,
520
1607960
2216
27:02
and it's aligned on true north.
521
1610200
1496
27:03
It's a small detail.
522
1611720
1736
27:05
CA: And capable of producing, eventually,
523
1613480
3896
27:09
like a hundred gigawatt hours
of batteries a year.
524
1617400
3176
27:12
EM: A hundred gigawatt hours.
We think probably more, but yeah.
525
1620600
2976
27:15
CA: And they're actually
being produced right now.
526
1623600
2376
27:18
EM: They're in production already.
CA: You guys put out this video.
527
1626000
3176
27:21
I mean, is that speeded up?
528
1629200
1336
27:22
EM: That's the slowed down version.
529
1630560
1696
27:24
(Laughter)
530
1632280
1776
27:26
CA: How fast does it actually go?
531
1634080
2336
27:28
EM: Well, when it's running at full speed,
532
1636440
2816
27:31
you can't actually see the cells
without a strobe light.
533
1639280
3936
27:35
It's just blur.
534
1643240
1200
27:36
(Laughter)
535
1644540
3336
27:40
CA: One of your core ideas, Elon,
about what makes an exciting future
536
1648000
3576
27:43
is a future where we no longer
feel guilty about energy.
537
1651600
2640
27:47
Help us picture this.
538
1655480
1416
27:48
How many Gigafactories, if you like,
does it take to get us there?
539
1656920
5016
27:53
EM: It's about a hundred, roughly.
540
1661960
1736
27:55
It's not 10, it's not a thousand.
541
1663720
1736
27:57
Most likely a hundred.
542
1665480
1360
28:00
CA: See, I find this amazing.
543
1668040
1656
28:01
You can picture what it would take
544
1669720
3976
28:05
to move the world
off this vast fossil fuel thing.
545
1673720
3256
28:09
It's like you're building one,
546
1677000
2576
28:11
it costs five billion dollars,
547
1679600
2856
28:14
or whatever, five to 10 billion dollars.
548
1682480
2136
28:16
Like, it's kind of cool
that you can picture that project.
549
1684640
3616
28:20
And you're planning to do, at Tesla --
announce another two this year.
550
1688280
4480
28:25
EM: I think we'll announce locations
551
1693480
2856
28:28
for somewhere between two
and four Gigafactories later this year.
552
1696360
3736
28:32
Yeah, probably four.
553
1700120
1440
28:34
CA: Whoa.
554
1702040
1616
28:35
(Applause)
555
1703680
2616
28:38
No more teasing from you for here?
556
1706320
4056
28:42
Like -- where, continent?
557
1710400
2800
28:47
You can say no.
558
1715480
1200
28:49
EM: We need to address a global market.
559
1717440
3776
28:53
CA: OK.
560
1721240
1216
28:54
(Laughter)
561
1722480
1336
28:55
This is cool.
562
1723840
1200
28:59
I think we should talk for --
563
1727480
4240
29:04
Actually, double mark it.
564
1732560
1616
29:06
I'm going to ask you one question
about politics, only one.
565
1734200
4096
29:10
I'm kind of sick of politics,
but I do want to ask you this.
566
1738320
3256
29:13
You're on a body now
giving advice to a guy --
567
1741600
6336
29:19
EM: Who?
568
1747960
1216
29:21
CA: Who has said he doesn't
really believe in climate change,
569
1749200
2896
29:24
and there's a lot of people out there
who think you shouldn't be doing that.
570
1752120
4336
29:28
They'd like you to walk away from that.
571
1756480
1896
29:30
What would you say to them?
572
1758400
1360
29:32
EM: Well, I think that first of all,
573
1760720
3616
29:36
I'm just on two advisory councils
574
1764360
2536
29:38
where the format consists
of going around the room
575
1766920
2816
29:41
and asking people's opinion on things,
576
1769760
2896
29:44
and so there's like a meeting
every month or two.
577
1772680
3760
29:49
That's the sum total of my contribution.
578
1777560
3216
29:52
But I think to the degree
that there are people in the room
579
1780800
2776
29:55
who are arguing in favor
of doing something about climate change,
580
1783600
4736
30:00
or social issues,
581
1788360
4000
30:06
I've used the meetings I've had thus far
582
1794520
3216
30:09
to argue in favor of immigration
and in favor of climate change.
583
1797760
4856
30:14
(Applause)
584
1802640
1936
30:16
And if I hadn't done that,
585
1804600
2096
30:18
that wasn't on the agenda before.
586
1806720
2816
30:21
So maybe nothing will happen,
but at least the words were said.
587
1809560
4240
30:26
CA: OK.
588
1814680
1216
30:27
(Applause)
589
1815920
2880
30:31
So let's talk SpaceX and Mars.
590
1819800
3536
30:35
Last time you were here,
591
1823360
1456
30:36
you spoke about what seemed like
a kind of incredibly ambitious dream
592
1824840
3696
30:40
to develop rockets
that were actually reusable.
593
1828560
4296
30:44
And you've only gone and done it.
594
1832880
2136
30:47
EM: Finally. It took a long time.
595
1835040
1616
30:48
CA: Talk us through this.
What are we looking at here?
596
1836680
2576
30:51
EM: So this is one of our rocket boosters
597
1839280
2136
30:53
coming back from
very high and fast in space.
598
1841440
4576
30:58
So just delivered the upper stage
599
1846040
3256
31:01
at high velocity.
600
1849320
2096
31:03
I think this might have been
at sort of Mach 7 or so,
601
1851440
3856
31:07
delivery of the upper stage.
602
1855320
1960
31:10
(Applause)
603
1858880
2000
31:13
CA: So that was a sped-up --
604
1861840
1496
31:15
EM: That was the slowed down version.
605
1863360
1816
31:17
(Laughter)
606
1865200
1336
31:18
CA: I thought that was
the sped-up version.
607
1866560
2496
31:21
But I mean, that's amazing,
608
1869080
1336
31:22
and several of these failed
609
1870440
1336
31:23
before you finally
figured out how to do it,
610
1871800
2936
31:26
but now you've done this,
what, five or six times?
611
1874760
2896
31:29
EM: We're at eight or nine.
612
1877680
2296
31:32
CA: And for the first time,
613
1880000
1616
31:33
you've actually reflown
one of the rockets that landed.
614
1881640
3136
31:36
EM: Yeah, so we landed the rocket booster
615
1884800
2776
31:39
and then prepped it for flight again
and flew it again,
616
1887600
2616
31:42
so it's the first reflight
of an orbital booster
617
1890240
5176
31:47
where that reflight is relevant.
618
1895440
1976
31:49
So it's important to appreciate
that reusability is only relevant
619
1897440
3176
31:52
if it is rapid and complete.
620
1900640
4080
31:57
So like an aircraft or a car,
621
1905400
3256
32:00
the reusability is rapid and complete.
622
1908680
2376
32:03
You do not send your aircraft
to Boeing in-between flights.
623
1911080
5056
32:08
CA: Right. So this is allowing you
to dream of this really ambitious idea
624
1916160
4816
32:13
of sending many, many, many people to Mars
625
1921000
3176
32:16
in, what, 10 or 20 years time, I guess.
626
1924200
2416
32:18
EM: Yeah.
627
1926640
1376
32:20
CA: And you've designed
this outrageous rocket to do it.
628
1928040
3416
32:23
Help us understand
the scale of this thing.
629
1931480
2416
32:25
EM: Well, visually
you can see that's a person.
630
1933920
4880
32:32
Yeah, and that's the vehicle.
631
1940680
1816
32:34
(Laughter)
632
1942520
1656
32:36
CA: So if that was a skyscraper,
633
1944200
1736
32:37
that's like, did I read that,
a 40-story skyscraper?
634
1945960
3336
32:41
EM: Probably a little more, yeah.
635
1949320
1600
32:44
The thrust level of this is really --
636
1952360
4000
32:50
This configuration is about four times
the thrust of the Saturn V moon rocket.
637
1958360
4920
32:56
CA: Four times the thrust of the biggest
rocket humanity ever created before.
638
1964440
4856
33:01
EM: Yeah. Yeah.
639
1969320
1200
33:04
CA: As one does.
EM: Yeah.
640
1972640
1456
33:06
(Laughter)
641
1974120
2976
33:09
In units of 747, a 747 is only about
a quarter of a million pounds of thrust,
642
1977120
5976
33:15
so for every 10 million pounds of thrust,
643
1983120
3096
33:18
there's 40 747s.
644
1986240
1696
33:19
So this would be the thrust equivalent
of 120 747s, with all engines blazing.
645
1987960
6256
33:26
CA: And so even with a machine
designed to escape Earth's gravity,
646
1994240
4216
33:30
I think you told me last time
647
1998480
1416
33:31
this thing could actually
take a fully loaded 747,
648
1999920
3256
33:35
people, cargo, everything,
649
2003200
2336
33:37
into orbit.
650
2005560
1256
33:38
EM: Exactly. This can take
a fully loaded 747 with maximum fuel,
651
2006840
5136
33:44
maximum passengers,
maximum cargo on the 747 --
652
2012000
4496
33:48
this can take it as cargo.
653
2016520
2240
33:52
CA: So based on this,
654
2020080
1736
33:53
you presented recently
this Interplanetary Transport System
655
2021840
4816
33:58
which is visualized this way.
656
2026680
3376
34:02
This is a scene you picture in, what,
30 years time? 20 years time?
657
2030080
4080
34:06
People walking into this rocket.
658
2034880
2576
34:09
EM: I'm hopeful it's sort of
an eight- to 10-year time frame.
659
2037480
4576
34:14
Aspirationally, that's our target.
660
2042080
2376
34:16
Our internal targets
are more aggressive, but I think --
661
2044480
3016
34:19
(Laughter)
662
2047520
2159
34:23
CA: OK.
663
2051600
1215
34:24
EM: While vehicle seems quite large
664
2052840
2136
34:27
and is large by comparison
with other rockets,
665
2055000
2176
34:29
I think the future spacecraft
666
2057199
3977
34:33
will make this look like a rowboat.
667
2061199
3841
34:38
The future spaceships
will be truly enormous.
668
2066320
4696
34:43
CA: Why, Elon?
669
2071040
2176
34:45
Why do we need to build a city on Mars
670
2073239
4137
34:49
with a million people
on it in your lifetime,
671
2077400
3056
34:52
which I think is kind of
what you've said you'd love to do?
672
2080480
3000
34:56
EM: I think it's important to have
673
2084480
2759
35:01
a future that is inspiring and appealing.
674
2089120
2736
35:03
I just think there have to be reasons
675
2091880
2776
35:06
that you get up in the morning
and you want to live.
676
2094679
2937
35:09
Like, why do you want to live?
677
2097640
1456
35:11
What's the point? What inspires you?
678
2099120
1736
35:12
What do you love about the future?
679
2100880
1856
35:14
And if we're not out there,
680
2102760
1496
35:16
if the future does not include
being out there among the stars
681
2104280
4016
35:20
and being a multiplanet species,
682
2108320
1696
35:22
I find that it's incredibly depressing
683
2110040
2496
35:24
if that's not the future
that we're going to have.
684
2112560
3336
35:27
(Applause)
685
2115920
4176
35:32
CA: People want to position this
as an either or,
686
2120120
2336
35:34
that there are so many desperate things
happening on the planet now
687
2122480
3696
35:38
from climate to poverty
to, you know, you pick your issue.
688
2126200
3440
35:42
And this feels like a distraction.
689
2130480
2536
35:45
You shouldn't be thinking about this.
690
2133040
1816
35:46
You should be solving what's here and now.
691
2134880
2176
35:49
And to be fair, you've done
a fair old bit to actually do that
692
2137080
2936
35:52
with your work on sustainable energy.
693
2140040
2816
35:54
But why not just do that?
694
2142880
2040
35:59
EM: I think there's --
695
2147360
2080
36:04
I look at the future
from the standpoint of probabilities.
696
2152840
4416
36:09
It's like a branching
stream of probabilities,
697
2157280
4176
36:13
and there are actions that we can take
that affect those probabilities
698
2161480
5000
36:19
or that accelerate one thing
or slow down another thing.
699
2167920
3200
36:24
I may introduce something new
to the probability stream.
700
2172000
4120
36:30
Sustainable energy
will happen no matter what.
701
2178840
2176
36:33
If there was no Tesla,
if Tesla never existed,
702
2181040
2496
36:35
it would have to happen out of necessity.
703
2183560
2856
36:38
It's tautological.
704
2186440
1576
36:40
If you don't have sustainable energy,
it means you have unsustainable energy.
705
2188040
3656
36:43
Eventually you will run out,
706
2191720
1616
36:45
and the laws of economics
will drive civilization
707
2193360
5816
36:51
towards sustainable energy,
708
2199200
1656
36:52
inevitably.
709
2200880
1216
36:54
The fundamental value
of a company like Tesla
710
2202120
2976
36:57
is the degree to which it accelerates
the advent of sustainable energy,
711
2205120
4416
37:01
faster than it would otherwise occur.
712
2209560
1762
37:05
So when I think, like,
713
2213120
1216
37:06
what is the fundamental good
of a company like Tesla,
714
2214360
2736
37:09
I would say, hopefully,
715
2217120
1696
37:10
if it accelerated that by a decade,
potentially more than a decade,
716
2218840
5616
37:16
that would be quite a good thing to occur.
717
2224480
2136
37:18
That's what I consider to be
718
2226640
1616
37:20
the fundamental
aspirational good of Tesla.
719
2228280
4080
37:25
Then there's becoming a multiplanet
species and space-faring civilization.
720
2233480
6336
37:31
This is not inevitable.
721
2239840
1936
37:33
It's very important to appreciate
this is not inevitable.
722
2241800
2696
37:36
The sustainable energy future
I think is largely inevitable,
723
2244520
3096
37:39
but being a space-faring civilization
is definitely not inevitable.
724
2247640
4736
37:44
If you look at the progress in space,
725
2252400
4176
37:48
in 1969 you were able
to send somebody to the moon.
726
2256600
2600
37:52
1969.
727
2260040
1200
37:54
Then we had the Space Shuttle.
728
2262840
2896
37:57
The Space Shuttle could only
take people to low Earth orbit.
729
2265760
3416
38:01
Then the Space Shuttle retired,
730
2269200
1536
38:02
and the United States
could take no one to orbit.
731
2270760
2400
38:06
So that's the trend.
732
2274320
1256
38:07
The trend is like down to nothing.
733
2275600
2680
38:11
People are mistaken when they think
734
2279560
2376
38:13
that technology
just automatically improves.
735
2281960
2096
38:16
It does not automatically improve.
736
2284080
1896
38:18
It only improves if a lot of people
work very hard to make it better,
737
2286000
4656
38:22
and actually it will, I think,
by itself degrade, actually.
738
2290680
5776
38:28
You look at great civilizations
like Ancient Egypt,
739
2296480
2416
38:30
and they were able to make the pyramids,
740
2298920
1936
38:32
and they forgot how to do that.
741
2300880
1816
38:34
And then the Romans,
they built these incredible aqueducts.
742
2302720
2816
38:37
They forgot how to do it.
743
2305560
1200
38:40
CA: Elon, it almost seems,
listening to you
744
2308720
2056
38:42
and looking at the different
things you've done,
745
2310800
2256
38:45
that you've got this unique
double motivation on everything
746
2313080
2776
38:47
that I find so interesting.
747
2315880
1320
38:51
One is this desire to work
for humanity's long-term good.
748
2319720
4576
38:56
The other is the desire
to do something exciting.
749
2324320
2336
38:58
And often it feels like you feel
like you need the one to drive the other.
750
2326680
4696
39:03
With Tesla, you want
to have sustainable energy,
751
2331400
3096
39:06
so you made these super sexy,
exciting cars to do it.
752
2334520
4536
39:11
Solar energy, we need to get there,
753
2339080
1696
39:12
so we need to make these beautiful roofs.
754
2340800
1953
39:14
We haven't even spoken
about your newest thing,
755
2342777
2199
39:17
which we don't have time to do,
756
2345000
1536
39:18
but you want to save humanity from bad AI,
757
2346560
2336
39:20
and so you're going to create
this really cool brain-machine interface
758
2348920
3296
39:24
to give us all infinite memory
and telepathy and so forth.
759
2352240
3856
39:28
And on Mars, it feels
like what you're saying is,
760
2356120
2696
39:30
yeah, we need to save humanity
761
2358840
3696
39:34
and have a backup plan,
762
2362560
1376
39:35
but also we need to inspire humanity,
763
2363960
3256
39:39
and this is a way to inspire.
764
2367240
4520
39:45
EM: I think the value
of beauty and inspiration
765
2373680
3776
39:49
is very much underrated,
766
2377480
1976
39:51
no question.
767
2379480
1576
39:53
But I want to be clear.
768
2381080
1256
39:54
I'm not trying to be anyone's savior.
769
2382360
1816
39:56
That is not the --
770
2384200
1200
39:58
I'm just trying to think about the future
771
2386240
3776
40:02
and not be sad.
772
2390040
1200
40:04
(Applause)
773
2392400
2096
40:06
CA: Beautiful statement.
774
2394520
1200
40:10
I think everyone here would agree
775
2398200
1576
40:11
that it is not --
776
2399800
1200
40:13
None of this is going
to happen inevitably.
777
2401800
2056
40:15
The fact that in your mind,
you dream this stuff,
778
2403880
3656
40:19
you dream stuff that no one else
would dare dream,
779
2407560
2576
40:22
or no one else
would be capable of dreaming
780
2410160
2656
40:24
at the level of complexity that you do.
781
2412840
3656
40:28
The fact that you do that, Elon Musk,
is a really remarkable thing.
782
2416520
3176
40:31
Thank you for helping us all
to dream a bit bigger.
783
2419720
2696
40:34
EM: But you'll tell me if it ever
starts getting genuinely insane, right?
784
2422440
3496
40:37
(Laughter)
785
2425960
2496
40:40
CA: Thank you, Elon Musk.
That was really, really fantastic.
786
2428480
3096
40:43
That was really fantastic.
787
2431600
1416
40:45
(Applause)
788
2433040
4080

▲Back to top

ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Elon Musk - Serial entrepreneur
Elon Musk is the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors and the CEO/CTO of Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX).

Why you should listen

At SpaceX, Musk oversees the development of rockets and spacecraft for missions to Earth orbit and ultimately to other planets. In 2008, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon spacecraft won the NASA contract to provide cargo transport to space. In 2012, SpaceX became the first commercial company to dock with the International Space Station and return cargo to Earth with the Dragon.

At Tesla, Musk has overseen product development and design from the beginning, including the all-electric Tesla Roadster, Model S and Model X, and the rollout of Supercharger stations to keep the cars juiced up. (Some of the charging stations use solar energy systems from SolarCity, of which Musk is the non-executive chair.) Transitioning to a sustainable energy economy, in which electric vehicles play a pivotal role, has been one of his central interests for almost two decades. He co-founded PayPal and served as the company's chair and CEO.

More profile about the speaker
Elon Musk | Speaker | TED.com

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