TED2017
Elon Musk: The future we're building -- and boring
伊隆 • 馬斯克: 我們正在構建的未來
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伊隆 • 馬斯克在此次與克里斯 • 安德森的對談中，講述他最新的計劃：洛杉磯地下隧道工程，特斯拉、SpaceX 的最新進展，以及他打算未來在火星建設的起因。
Elon Musk - Serial entrepreneur
Elon Musk is the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors and the CEO/CTO of Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX). Full bio
Elon Musk is the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors and the CEO/CTO of Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX). Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Chris Anderson:
Elon, hey, welcome back to TED.
Elon, hey, welcome back to TED.
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克里斯 • 安德森（安）：
伊隆，歡迎再次參加 TED。
伊隆，歡迎再次參加 TED。
00:15
It's great to have you here.
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真的很榮幸你能來。
00:16
Elon Musk: Thanks for having me.
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伊隆 • 馬斯克（馬）：多謝邀請。
安：接下來的半個多小時，
00:18
CA: So, in the next half hour or so,
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我們要花點時間
00:21
we're going to spend some time
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00:23
exploring your vision for what
an exciting future might look like,
an exciting future might look like,
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探索你的願景，未來怎樣令人興奮。
00:27
which I guess makes
the first question a little ironic:
the first question a little ironic:
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我想問的第一個問題會有點反諷。
00:31
Why are you boring?
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你為什麽無聊？（註：他的公司取名
「無聊」The BORING Company ）
「無聊」The BORING Company ）
00:33
EM: Yeah.
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馬：是啊。
我也經常這麽問自己。
00:34
I ask myself that frequently.
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00:39
We're trying to dig a hole under LA,
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我們打算在洛杉磯的
地底下挖個大窟窿，
地底下挖個大窟窿，
00:43
and this is to create the beginning
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這可是開創了新起點，
00:46
of what will hopefully
be a 3D network of tunnels
be a 3D network of tunnels
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希望建成三維網路隧道，
00:51
to alleviate congestion.
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來緩解交通擁堵。
00:53
So right now, one of the most
soul-destroying things is traffic.
soul-destroying things is traffic.
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現在交通是件最令人難以忍受的事，
00:59
It affects people
in every part of the world.
in every part of the world.
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影響到世界各地的人，
01:02
It takes away so much of your life.
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也佔用了人很多的時間。
01:06
It's horrible.
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這太可怕了。
01:08
It's particularly horrible in LA.
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在洛杉磯尤其恐怖。
01:09
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
01:12
CA: I think you've brought with you
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安：我想你帶來了
01:14
the first visualization
that's been shown of this.
that's been shown of this.
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未來工程的首映片。
01:16
Can I show this?
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我能放嗎？
01:18
EM: Yeah, absolutely.
So this is the first time --
So this is the first time --
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馬：當然可以了，這還是第一次，
01:20
Just to show what we're talking about.
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讓大家看看我們在說什麼。
01:22
So a couple of key things
that are important
that are important
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裏面有幾個很重要的關鍵
01:24
in having a 3D tunnel network.
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在講三維網路隧道的建設。
01:28
First of all, you have to be able
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你得先整合隧道的入出口，
01:30
to integrate the entrance
and exit of the tunnel
and exit of the tunnel
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01:32
seamlessly into the fabric of the city.
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無縫對接城市。
01:34
So by having an elevator,
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所以，藉由電梯
01:38
sort of a car skate,
that's on an elevator,
that's on an elevator,
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和位於電梯上的汽車滑托，
01:43
you can integrate the entrance
and exits to the tunnel network
and exits to the tunnel network
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就可以整合隧道的網路出入口，
01:47
just by using two parking spaces.
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只佔用兩個停車位的空間。
01:50
And then the car gets on a skate.
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接著車子就上了汽車滑托。
01:52
There's no speed limit here,
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隧道是不限速的。
我們設計車速能到每小時 200 公里。
01:54
so we're designing this to be able
to operate at 200 kilometers an hour.
to operate at 200 kilometers an hour.
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01:59
CA: How much?
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安：多快？
02:00
EM: 200 kilometers an hour,
or about 130 miles per hour.
or about 130 miles per hour.
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馬：時速 200 公里，約 130 英里。
02:04
So you should be able
to get from, say, Westwood to LAX
to get from, say, Westwood to LAX
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從西木區到洛杉磯機場應該
只要六分鐘，五、六分鐘的樣子。
02:11
in six minutes -- five, six minutes.
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02:13
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
安：因此竣工以後
02:17
CA: So possibly, initially done,
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02:19
it's like on a sort
of toll road-type basis.
of toll road-type basis.
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可能類似收費公路。
02:21
EM: Yeah.
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馬：是的。
02:22
CA: Which, I guess,
alleviates some traffic
alleviates some traffic
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安：我想這也可以
緩解部分地面交通的壓力。
02:24
from the surface streets as well.
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02:26
EM: So, I don't know
if people noticed it in the video,
if people noticed it in the video,
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馬：我不知道大家
有沒有在影片中注意到
有沒有在影片中注意到
02:29
but there's no real limit
to how many levels of tunnel you can have.
to how many levels of tunnel you can have.
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挖多少層隧道其實沒有限制。
02:34
You can go much further deep
than you can go up.
than you can go up.
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你可以往下挖的深度
遠多於往上蓋的高度。
遠多於往上蓋的高度。
02:37
The deepest mines are much deeper
than the tallest buildings are tall,
than the tallest buildings are tall,
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最深的礦井深度比最高的建築還要高，
02:41
so you can alleviate any arbitrary
level of urban congestion
level of urban congestion
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所以想要緩解任何級別的城市擁堵
都可以通過三維網路隧道來解決。
02:46
with a 3D tunnel network.
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02:48
This is a very important point.
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這是非常重要的一點。
反駁隧道可行性的一樣關鍵是
02:49
So a key rebuttal to the tunnels
is that if you add one layer of tunnels,
is that if you add one layer of tunnels,
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每增加一層隧道來紓解交通壅塞
02:56
that will simply alleviate congestion,
it will get used up,
it will get used up,
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很快就會被塞滿而失效，
然後你回到起始點，又壅塞了。
02:58
and then you'll be back where you started,
back with congestion.
back with congestion.
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03:02
But you can go to any
arbitrary number of tunnels,
arbitrary number of tunnels,
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不過你可以想挖多少層就挖多少層，
03:04
any number of levels.
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多少層都可以。
03:05
CA: But people -- seen traditionally,
it's incredibly expensive to dig,
it's incredibly expensive to dig,
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安：可是依過往的經驗，
挖地道非常耗錢，
挖地道非常耗錢，
03:09
and that would block this idea.
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有可能會阻礙這個想法。
03:11
EM: Yeah.
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馬：是的，
03:13
Well, they're right.
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他們是沒錯。
03:14
To give you an example,
the LA subway extension,
the LA subway extension,
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擧個例子，洛杉磯地鐵的延伸工程，
03:18
which is -- I think it's
a two-and-a-half mile extension
a two-and-a-half mile extension
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我想是兩英里半的擴建，
03:21
that was just completed
for two billion dollars.
for two billion dollars.
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剛剛完工，花了二十億美元。
03:24
So it's roughly a billion dollars a mile
to do the subway extension in LA.
to do the subway extension in LA.
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所以在洛杉磯擴建地鐵
大約每英里十億美元。
大約每英里十億美元。
03:29
And this is not the highest
utility subway in the world.
utility subway in the world.
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這還不是世上最高效用的地鐵。
03:33
So yeah, it's quite difficult
to dig tunnels normally.
to dig tunnels normally.
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說的沒錯，挖隧道通常都很難。
我想至少每英里的成本需改善十倍
03:37
I think we need to have
at least a tenfold improvement
at least a tenfold improvement
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03:41
in the cost per mile of tunneling.
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才能夠用隧道施工法。
03:44
CA: And how could you achieve that?
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安：那如何實現呢？
03:48
EM: Actually, if you just do two things,
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馬：其實，只要做兩件事，
03:50
you can get to approximately
an order of magnitude improvement,
an order of magnitude improvement,
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大約可提高一個數量級，
（註：十分之一的花費）
（註：十分之一的花費）
我想還可以更好。
03:53
and I think you can go beyond that.
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03:55
So the first thing to do
is to cut the tunnel diameter
is to cut the tunnel diameter
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第一件事是縮小隧道直徑，
縮一半或更多。
04:00
by a factor of two or more.
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04:01
So a single road lane tunnel
according to regulations
according to regulations
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據法律規定，一條單程隧道
04:05
has to be 26 feet,
maybe 28 feet in diameter
maybe 28 feet in diameter
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得有 26 或 28 英尺的直徑，
04:08
to allow for crashes
and emergency vehicles
and emergency vehicles
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要考慮撞車和緊急車輛的通行，
04:11
and sufficient ventilation
for combustion engine cars.
for combustion engine cars.
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還要讓機動車夠通風。
04:16
But if you shrink that diameter
to what we're attempting,
to what we're attempting,
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但如果縮小直徑──
我們在嘗試12 英尺──
我們在嘗試12 英尺──
04:19
which is 12 feet, which is plenty
to get an electric skate through,
to get an electric skate through,
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夠電動滑托通過了。
04:23
you drop the diameter by a factor of two
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把直徑減到一半，
04:26
and the cross-sectional area
by a factor of four,
by a factor of four,
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截面積會縮小四倍，
04:30
and the tunneling cost scales
with the cross-sectional area.
with the cross-sectional area.
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對應切面的隧道成本也會降低四倍，
那大約改善了半個數量級。
04:33
So that's roughly a half-order
of magnitude improvement right there.
of magnitude improvement right there.
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現在的挖隧道機
挖到一半時會停下來，
挖到一半時會停下來，
04:36
Then tunneling machines currently tunnel
for half the time, then they stop,
for half the time, then they stop,
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留下時間加固，
04:41
and then the rest of the time
is putting in reinforcements
is putting in reinforcements
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04:44
for the tunnel wall.
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加固隧道壁。
04:46
So if you design the machine instead
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所以如果有人設計機械
04:48
to do continuous
tunneling and reinforcing,
tunneling and reinforcing,
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連續挖隧道還同時加固，
04:50
that will give you
a factor of two improvement.
a factor of two improvement.
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那就是兩倍的改善。
04:53
Combine that and that's a factor of eight.
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兩個加起來，就是八倍。
04:55
Also these machines are far from being
at their power or thermal limits,
at their power or thermal limits,
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而且這些機器遠未發揮
最大效能和熱極限，
最大效能和熱極限，
04:59
so you can jack up the power
to the machine substantially.
to the machine substantially.
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可以大幅提昇機器的功率，
05:03
I think you can get
at least a factor of two,
at least a factor of two,
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我想至少增效兩倍，
05:05
maybe a factor of four or five
improvement on top of that.
improvement on top of that.
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甚至四、五倍的提升。
05:09
So I think there's a fairly
straightforward series of steps
straightforward series of steps
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我覺得靠這一系列
相當直接簡潔的步驟，
相當直接簡潔的步驟，
05:13
to get somewhere in excess
of an order of magnitude improvement
of an order of magnitude improvement
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能達到超過一個數量級的改進，
05:16
in the cost per mile,
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以每英里的成本來計算的話。
05:18
and our target actually is --
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而我們的目標實際上是──
05:21
we've got a pet snail called Gary,
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我們有隻叫「小蝸」的寵物蝸牛，
05:24
this is from Gary the snail
from "South Park,"
from "South Park,"
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是「南方公園」電視節目的小蝸牛，
05:26
I mean, sorry, "SpongeBob SquarePants."
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抱歉，我想說的是「海綿寶寶」。
05:29
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
05:31
So Gary is capable of --
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「小蝸」很有能力，
05:35
currently he's capable
of going 14 times faster
of going 14 times faster
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目前它能比隧道鑽掘機
快 14 倍。
05:39
than a tunnel-boring machine.
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05:41
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
05:44
CA: You want to beat Gary.
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安：你想打敗「小蝸」。
05:46
EM: We want to beat Gary.
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馬：我們想打敗「小蝸」。
05:47
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
05:49
He's not a patient little fellow,
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他可不是有耐心的小傢伙，
05:51
and that will be victory.
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我們要──那就是勝利。
05:54
Victory is beating the snail.
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勝利就是打敗蝸牛。
安：但也有很多人
在幻想未來城市的時候，
在幻想未來城市的時候，
05:57
CA: But a lot of people imagining,
dreaming about future cities,
dreaming about future cities,
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06:00
they imagine that actually
the solution is flying cars, drones, etc.
the solution is flying cars, drones, etc.
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想到的解決之道
是飛行汽車，無人機等等，
是飛行汽車，無人機等等，
06:04
You go aboveground.
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在地面上發展。
06:06
Why isn't that a better solution?
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為什麼那些不是更好的方案？
06:08
You save all that tunneling cost.
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那些都省掉大筆隧道成本。
06:10
EM: Right. I'm in favor of flying things.
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馬：是的。我支持飛行器。
06:12
Obviously, I do rockets,
so I like things that fly.
so I like things that fly.
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我做火箭，
顯然我喜歡會飛的玩意兒。
顯然我喜歡會飛的玩意兒。
06:16
This is not some inherent bias
against flying things,
against flying things,
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我內心對飛行器沒有偏見，
06:19
but there is a challenge with flying cars
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但飛行汽車有問題，
06:22
in that they'll be quite noisy,
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因為他們會很吵，
06:25
the wind force generated
will be very high.
will be very high.
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飛來飛去產生的風也很大。
假如有東西在你的頭上方飛，
06:32
Let's just say that if something's
flying over your head,
flying over your head,
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06:34
a whole bunch of flying cars
going all over the place,
going all over the place,
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一大堆車子在空中到處飛，
06:38
that is not an anxiety-reducing situation.
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這場面不由得讓人焦慮。
06:43
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
06:45
You don't think to yourself,
"Well, I feel better about today."
"Well, I feel better about today."
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你可不會想：「我覺得今天很不錯。」
06:50
You're thinking,
"Did they service their hubcap,
"Did they service their hubcap,
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你可能會想：「這車的輪轂保養了嗎？
06:53
or is it going to come off
and guillotine me?"
and guillotine me?"
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會不會脫落斬斷我的脖子？」
類似這種狀況。
06:56
Things like that.
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07:00
CA: So you've got this vision
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安：所以你想像的前景
07:01
of future cities with these rich,
3D networks of tunnels underneath.
3D networks of tunnels underneath.
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未來城市是四通八達的
立體地下網路隧道。
立體地下網路隧道。
這搭配超迴路列車（Hyperloop）嗎？
07:07
Is there a tie-in here with Hyperloop?
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07:09
Could you apply these tunnels
to use for this Hyperloop idea
to use for this Hyperloop idea
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你會把幾年前發布的超迴路列車概念
07:12
you released a few years ago.
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用在這些隧道嗎？
07:14
EM: Yeah, so we've been
sort of puttering around
sort of puttering around
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馬：是的，我們嘗試超迴路列車
07:18
with the Hyperloop stuff for a while.
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有段時間了。
07:20
We built a Hyperloop test track
adjacent to SpaceX,
adjacent to SpaceX,
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我們毗鄰 SpaceX 建了一條
超迴路列車測試賽道，
超迴路列車測試賽道，
07:24
just for a student competition,
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是個學生競賽，
07:26
to encourage innovative
ideas in transport.
ideas in transport.
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激發學生想出交通運輸的新創想法。
07:29
And it actually ends up being
the biggest vacuum chamber in the world
the biggest vacuum chamber in the world
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實際上它是目前世上最大的真空艙，
07:34
after the Large Hadron Collider,
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僅次於大型強子對撞機，
07:37
by volume.
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按體積來算的話。
07:41
So it was quite fun to do that,
but it was kind of a hobby thing,
but it was kind of a hobby thing,
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做這個很有趣，但是個業餘興趣，
07:46
and then we think we might --
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我們想──
07:50
so we've built a little pusher car
to push the student pods,
to push the student pods,
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我們造了輛助力車
來推動學生的競賽車廂，
來推動學生的競賽車廂，
07:56
but we're going to try seeing
how fast we can make the pusher go
how fast we can make the pusher go
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但我們也想看助力車能跑多快，
08:00
if it's not pushing something.
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尤其是空載的狀態下。
08:02
So we're cautiously optimistic
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我們對此審慎樂觀，
有可能會比世界上
最快的子彈列車還要快，
最快的子彈列車還要快，
08:05
we'll be able to be faster
than the world's fastest bullet train
than the world's fastest bullet train
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08:10
even in a .8-mile stretch.
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即便是跑在 0.8 英里長的軌道上。
08:12
CA: Whoa. Good brakes.
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安：噢，剎車系統很不錯。
08:14
EM: Yeah, I mean, it's -- yeah.
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馬：是的，我的意思是──不錯。
08:17
It's either going to smash
into tiny pieces or go quite fast.
into tiny pieces or go quite fast.
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要麼粉成了碎片，要麽就快到無敵。
安：但你可以想像下，
超迴路列車行駛在隧道中，
超迴路列車行駛在隧道中，
08:21
CA: But you can picture,
then, a Hyperloop in a tunnel
then, a Hyperloop in a tunnel
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08:25
running quite long distances.
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還能跑很遠。
08:27
EM: Exactly.
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馬：完全正確。
08:29
And looking at tunneling technology,
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再看看隧道技術，
08:30
it turns out that
in order to make a tunnel,
in order to make a tunnel,
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事實證明要想挖隧道，
08:33
you have to --
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你必須──
08:36
In order to seal against the water table,
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為了要密封對付地下水，
08:38
you've got to typically design
a tunnel wall to be good
a tunnel wall to be good
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通常設計的隧道牆
要硬到能承受至少五、六個大氣壓。
08:43
to about five or six atmospheres.
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08:47
So to go to vacuum is only one atmosphere,
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而真空下只要一個大氣壓，
08:50
or near-vacuum.
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或近真空的狀態。
08:51
So actually, it sort of turns out
that automatically,
that automatically,
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事實上，自然而然，
08:56
if you build a tunnel that is good enough
to resist the water table,
to resist the water table,
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如果你造的隧道好到能防地下水，
09:00
it is automatically
capable of holding vacuum.
capable of holding vacuum.
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顯然就能夠維持真空。
09:02
CA: Huh.
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安：嗯。
09:04
EM: So, yeah.
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馬：是啊。
09:05
CA: And so you could actually picture,
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安：你想未來要運行你的
09:07
what kind of length tunnel
is in Elon's future to running Hyperloop?
is in Elon's future to running Hyperloop?
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Hyperloop 隧道得有多長？
09:13
EM: I think there's no real length limit.
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馬：我想長度不受限。
09:16
You could dig as much as you want.
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你可以想挖多長就挖多長。
09:19
I think if you were to do something
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我想如果你要建造
09:21
like a DC-to-New York Hyperloop,
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像華府特區到紐約的 Hyperloop，
09:27
I think you'd probably want
to go underground the entire way
to go underground the entire way
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你可能要把整條路都挪到地底下去。
因為這些地方的人口高度集中，
09:29
because it's a high-density area.
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09:31
You're going under
a lot of buildings and houses,
a lot of buildings and houses,
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你要穿過很多建築和房屋底下。
09:35
and if you go deep enough,
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只要挖得夠深，
09:37
you cannot detect the tunnel.
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你感覺不到隧道的存在。
有時人們覺得會很煩，
09:39
Sometimes people think,
well, it's going to be pretty annoying
well, it's going to be pretty annoying
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如果在我家地底下挖隧道的話。
09:42
to have a tunnel dug under my house.
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09:44
Like, if that tunnel is dug
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假如把隧道挖到
09:45
more than about three or four
tunnel diameters beneath your house,
tunnel diameters beneath your house,
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超過你房底三、四個隧道直徑深，
09:49
you will not be able
to detect it being dug at all.
to detect it being dug at all.
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你根本就不會感到它在挖洞。
09:52
In fact, if you're able
to detect the tunnel being dug,
to detect the tunnel being dug,
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事實上，要是你能感覺到在挖隧道，
不管用什麽裝備，
09:59
whatever device you are using,
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10:01
you can get a lot of money
for that device from the Israeli military,
for that device from the Israeli military,
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你都可以用那裝備
從以色列軍方撈上一筆，
從以色列軍方撈上一筆，
10:04
who is trying to detect
tunnels from Hamas,
tunnels from Hamas,
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因為他們一直在嘗試
偵察出哈馬斯的隧道，
偵察出哈馬斯的隧道，
10:07
and from the US Customs and Border patrol
that try and detect drug tunnels.
that try and detect drug tunnels.
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當然還有美國海關和邊檢，
他們一直嘗試偵測地下販毒。
他們一直嘗試偵測地下販毒。
10:12
So the reality is
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但其實是
10:15
that earth is incredibly good
at absorbing vibrations,
at absorbing vibrations,
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地球很能吸收振動，
10:19
and once the tunnel depth
is below a certain level,
is below a certain level,
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一旦隧道挖到一定的深度，
10:22
it is undetectable.
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就測不到了。
10:24
Maybe if you have a very sensitive
seismic instrument,
seismic instrument,
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你得有高靈敏度的測震儀
10:27
you might be able to detect it.
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才可能測得到。
10:29
CA: So you've started
a new company to do this
a new company to do this
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安：你開了新公司專門做這個，
10:31
called The Boring Company.
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叫做「The Boring Company」。
10:33
Very nice. Very funny.
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很好。很好笑。
10:35
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
10:36
EM: What's funny about that?
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馬：有什麼好笑的？
10:38
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
安：你花多少時間在這項目上？
10:40
CA: How much of your time is this?
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10:43
EM: It's maybe ...
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馬：大概
10:47
two or three percent.
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2％ 到 3％。
10:49
CA: You've bought a hobby.
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安：你買了個業餘愛好。
10:50
This is what an Elon Musk
hobby looks like.
hobby looks like.
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伊隆 • 馬斯克的業餘愛好像這樣！
10:53
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
10:54
EM: I mean, it really is, like --
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馬：我的意思是它真的是
10:57
This is basically interns
and people doing it part time.
and people doing it part time.
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基本上是實習生和兼職的人在做。
11:03
We bought some second-hand machinery.
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我們買了些二手設備。
11:08
It's kind of puttering along,
but it's making good progress, so --
but it's making good progress, so --
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好像是在消磨時光，但進展還不錯。
11:12
CA: So an even bigger part of your time
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安：你更大部分的時間
11:13
is being spent on electrifying
cars and transport through Tesla.
cars and transport through Tesla.
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花在特斯拉電動車和運輸。
11:19
Is one of the motivations
for the tunneling project
for the tunneling project
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你挖隧道的動機……
11:22
the realization that actually,
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你實際去挖隧道的原因之一，
11:24
in a world where cars are electric
and where they're self-driving,
and where they're self-driving,
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是不是因為一旦世上
有了電動車和自駕車，
有了電動車和自駕車，
11:28
there may end up being
more cars on the roads
more cars on the roads
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未來路上的汽車可能比目前更多呢？
11:31
on any given hour than there are now?
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11:34
EM: Yeah, exactly.
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馬：是的，確實這樣。
11:38
A lot of people think
that when you make cars autonomous,
that when you make cars autonomous,
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很多人覺得一旦讓汽車自動駕駛，
11:42
they'll be able to go faster
and that will alleviate congestion.
and that will alleviate congestion.
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可以開得更快還能緩解交通。
11:47
And to some degree that will be true,
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一定程度上有它的道理。
11:48
but once you have shared autonomy
where it's much cheaper to go by car
where it's much cheaper to go by car
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然而一旦共用自駕車更便宜，
11:54
and you can go point to point,
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任意起點、目的地都到得了，
11:56
the affordability of going in a car
will be better than that of a bus.
will be better than that of a bus.
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搭車將比搭巴士便宜，
12:02
Like, it will cost less than a bus ticket.
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價格低於巴士的票價。
12:04
So the amount of driving that will occur
will be much greater with shared autonomy,
will be much greater with shared autonomy,
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所以共用自駕會使上路的汽車更多，
12:09
and actually traffic will get far worse.
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交通會變得更糟。
12:12
CA: You started Tesla
with the goal of persuading the world
with the goal of persuading the world
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安：你成立特斯拉要說服全世界
12:16
that electrification
was the future of cars,
was the future of cars,
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電動車是未來。
12:19
and a few years ago,
people were laughing at you.
people were laughing at you.
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幾年前人們取笑你，
12:22
Now, not so much.
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現在沒那麼多了。
12:24
EM: OK.
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馬：好吧，
12:25
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
12:27
I don't know. I don't know.
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我不知道。
12:30
CA: But isn't it true that pretty much
every auto manufacturer
every auto manufacturer
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安：是不是真的每家汽車製造商
12:33
has announced
serious electrification plans
serious electrification plans
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都鄭重其事地推出電動車計劃，
12:36
for the short- to medium-term future?
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目標設在中或短期的未來？
12:40
EM: Yeah. Yeah.
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馬：是啊，可不是麽。
12:43
I think almost every automaker
has some electric vehicle program.
has some electric vehicle program.
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我想幾乎每家汽車製造商
都有些電動車計劃，
都有些電動車計劃，
僅在投入的精力上有所區別。
12:48
They vary in seriousness.
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12:49
Some are very serious
about transitioning entirely to electric,
about transitioning entirely to electric,
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有些非常認真地要完全轉向電動，
12:53
and some are just dabbling in it.
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有些只不過是略微涉足。
12:57
And some, amazingly,
are still pursuing fuel cells,
are still pursuing fuel cells,
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令人想不到的是
有些還在追逐燃料電池，
有些還在追逐燃料電池，
12:59
but I think that won't last much longer.
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我覺得他們撐不了太久。
13:01
CA: But isn't there a sense, though, Elon,
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安：伊隆，這有道理嗎？
13:03
where you can now just declare victory
and say, you know, "We did it."
and say, you know, "We did it."
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你現在是可以宣佈勝利：
「我們做到了。」
「我們做到了。」
13:07
Let the world electrify,
and you go on and focus on other stuff?
and you go on and focus on other stuff?
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讓汽車界電氣化，
接著你繼續關注別的東西？
接著你繼續關注別的東西？
13:13
EM: Yeah.
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馬：是的。
13:16
I intend to stay with Tesla
as far into the future as I can imagine,
as far into the future as I can imagine,
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在以後可預見的一段時間内，
我打算留在特斯拉，
我打算留在特斯拉，
13:20
and there are a lot of exciting
things that we have coming.
things that we have coming.
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我們還有很多令人興奮的東西，
13:25
Obviously the Model 3 is coming soon.
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很明顯地 Model 3 要上市了。
13:27
We'll be unveiling the Tesla Semi truck.
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我們還將揭曉特斯拉半掛式卡車。
13:32
CA: OK, we're going to come to this.
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安：好的，我們現在就來看一下，
13:34
So Model 3, it's supposed
to be coming in July-ish.
to be coming in July-ish.
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Model 3 預定在七月左右面市。
13:39
EM: Yeah, it's looking quite good
for starting production in July.
for starting production in July.
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馬：是的，看起來能在七月開始生產。
13:43
CA: Wow.
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安：很棒。
13:45
One of the things
that people are so excited about
that people are so excited about
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人們很興奮的是
13:47
is the fact that it's got autopilot.
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它能自動駕駛。
13:50
And you put out this video a while back
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這片子你放出來有段時間了，
13:53
showing what that technology
would look like.
would look like.
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也講了未來技術是什麼樣的。
13:58
EM: Yeah.
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馬：是的。
13:59
There's obviously autopilot
in Model S right now.
in Model S right now.
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安：現在是 Model S 自動駕駛。
14:02
What are we seeing here?
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我們看到什麼？
14:03
EM: Yeah, so this is using
only cameras and GPS.
only cameras and GPS.
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馬：沒錯，這車只用相機和 GPS，
14:09
So there's no LIDAR
or radar being used here.
or radar being used here.
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沒用光達也沒用雷達。（註：LIDAR，
light detection and ranging）
light detection and ranging）
14:12
This is just using passive optical,
which is essentially what a person uses.
which is essentially what a person uses.
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僅用無源光，大多數人用的那種。
14:17
The whole road system
is meant to be navigated
is meant to be navigated
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整個道路系統的導航
14:19
with passive optical, or cameras,
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採用無源光，也稱為相機，
14:23
and so once you solve cameras
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一旦可以用相機解決，
14:27
or vision,
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或掌控視線，
14:29
then autonomy is solved.
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那麼自動駕駛就解決了。
14:31
If you don't solve vision,
it's not solved.
it's not solved.
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不解決視線，問題就沒解決。
14:34
So that's why our focus is
so heavily on having a vision neural net
so heavily on having a vision neural net
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這也是為什麼我們
特別關注視覺神經網路，
特別關注視覺神經網路，
14:40
that's very effective for road conditions.
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對於識別路面狀況非常有效。
14:43
CA: Right. Many other people
are going the LIDAR route.
are going the LIDAR route.
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安：對，其他好些人使用光達。
14:46
You want cameras plus radar is most of it.
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你把雷達和相機加在一起用。
14:48
EM: You can absolutely
be superhuman with just cameras.
be superhuman with just cameras.
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馬：單用相機就絕對已經超人了。
14:52
Like, you can probably do it
ten times better than humans would,
ten times better than humans would,
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只用相機完全可以十倍於人類，
14:55
just cameras.
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只用相機哦。
14:56
CA: So the new cars being sold right now
have eight cameras in them.
have eight cameras in them.
287
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安：現在市面上的新車有八台相機，
15:01
They can't yet do what that showed.
288
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還做不到影片顯示的那樣。
15:05
When will they be able to?
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那什麼時候可以？
15:08
EM: I think we're still on track
for being able to go cross-country
for being able to go cross-country
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馬：我們長途越野的時程仍如計畫，
15:14
from LA to New York by the end
of the year, fully autonomous.
of the year, fully autonomous.
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到年底將實現從洛杉磯到紐約
完全自動駕駛。
完全自動駕駛。
15:18
CA: OK, so by the end
of the year, you're saying,
of the year, you're saying,
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安：好的，你是說到年底，
15:22
someone's going to sit in a Tesla
without touching the steering wheel,
without touching the steering wheel,
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坐上特斯拉的人，無需操控方向盤，
15:26
tap in "New York," off it goes.
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點一下「紐約」，就啟程了。
15:28
EM: Yeah.
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馬：是的。
15:29
CA: Won't ever have to touch the wheel --
by the end of 2017.
by the end of 2017.
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安：到 2017 年底，無需再摸方向盤。
15:34
EM: Yeah. Essentially,
November or December of this year,
November or December of this year,
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馬：差不多是今年的 11 或 12 月，
15:38
we should be able to go all the way
from a parking lot in California
from a parking lot in California
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我們應該能從加州的停車場，
一路開到紐約的停車場，
15:43
to a parking lot in New York,
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15:45
no controls touched at any point
during the entire journey.
during the entire journey.
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全程無需觸控。
15:48
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
15:50
CA: Amazing.
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安：太棒了。
15:52
But part of that is possible
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但這可辦得到的部分原因
15:53
because you've already got a fleet
of Teslas driving all these roads.
of Teslas driving all these roads.
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是因為你已有整個
特斯拉車隊行駛在路上，
特斯拉車隊行駛在路上，
15:56
You're accumulating a huge amount
of data of that national road system.
of data of that national road system.
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累積了海量的全國道路系統數據。
16:03
EM: Yes, but the thing
that will be interesting
that will be interesting
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馬：是的，更有趣的是──
16:06
is that I'm actually fairly confident
it will be able to do that route
it will be able to do that route
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實際上，我相當有自信
它能行駛特定的路徑，
16:12
even if you change the route dynamically.
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即使隨機變換路徑也到得了。
16:16
So, it's fairly easy --
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這很簡單。
16:20
If you say I'm going to be really good
at one specific route, that's one thing,
at one specific route, that's one thing,
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走特定的路徑很行是一回事，
16:23
but it should be able to go,
really be very good,
really be very good,
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但必須要能，非常能，
16:28
certainly once you enter a highway,
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一旦駛入高速公路系統，
16:30
to go anywhere on the highway system
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想到哪兒就能到哪兒，
16:33
in a given country.
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不論在哪一個國家。
16:36
So it's not sort of limited
to LA to New York.
to LA to New York.
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所以不限於從洛杉磯到紐約，
16:38
We could change it
and make it Seattle-Florida,
and make it Seattle-Florida,
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我們還可以改成
從西雅圖到佛羅里達，
從西雅圖到佛羅里達，
16:41
that day, in real time.
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就在同一天，隨時隨地。
16:44
So you were going from LA to New York.
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你本來是從洛杉磯去紐約，
16:46
Now go from LA to Toronto.
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現在改為從洛杉磯去多倫多。
16:50
CA: So leaving aside
regulation for a second,
regulation for a second,
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安：把法律規章先放一旁，
16:53
in terms of the technology alone,
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僅就技術而言，
16:55
the time when someone
will be able to buy one of your cars
will be able to buy one of your cars
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當有人買了你的車，
16:59
and literally just take the hands
off the wheel and go to sleep
off the wheel and go to sleep
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簡直就能雙手離開方向盤，
放心大膽去睡覺，
放心大膽去睡覺，
17:03
and wake up and find that they've arrived,
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一覺醒來，發現已到目的地了。
17:05
how far away is that, to do that safely?
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離實現還要多久？
17:07
EM: I think that's about two years.
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馬：我覺得大概得兩年。
17:09
So the real trick of it
is not how do you make it work
is not how do you make it work
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真正棘手的不是
17:13
say 99.9 percent of the time,
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99.9％ 的時間行得通，
17:16
because, like, if a car crashes
one in a thousand times,
one in a thousand times,
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因為就算一千次裡撞車一次，
那你就沒法放心睡覺了。
17:20
then you're probably still not going
to be comfortable falling asleep.
to be comfortable falling asleep.
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17:27
You shouldn't be, certainly.
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絕對不會，那肯定的。
（笑聲）
17:29
(Laughter)
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17:32
It's never going to be perfect.
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沒有什麽事情是完美的，
17:34
No system is going to be perfect,
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沒有系統全然完美。
17:36
but if you say it's perhaps --
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但是如果說
17:40
the car is unlikely to crash
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這車不太可能
在百倍或千倍壽命期間撞車，
17:42
in a hundred lifetimes,
or a thousand lifetimes,
or a thousand lifetimes,
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17:46
then people are like, OK, wow,
if I were to live a thousand lives,
if I were to live a thousand lives,
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那人們會被打動，
當然我沒千倍長的壽命，
17:50
I would still most likely
never experience a crash,
never experience a crash,
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在我活著的期間應該不會撞車，
17:53
then that's probably OK.
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那是可以接受的。
17:54
CA: To sleep.
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安：安心去睡覺。
17:55
I guess the big concern of yours
is that people may actually
is that people may actually
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我猜你最擔心的
是人們可能過早被誘惑
而認為這是安全的，
而認為這是安全的，
17:58
get seduced too early
to think that this is safe,
to think that this is safe,
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18:00
and that you'll have some horrible
incident happen that puts things back.
incident happen that puts things back.
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然後發生可怕的事情，以致倒退了。
18:05
EM: Well, I think that the autonomy system
is likely to at least mitigate the crash,
is likely to at least mitigate the crash,
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馬：我覺得自駕系統
至少能減輕事故的發生，
至少能減輕事故的發生，
18:11
except in rare circumstances.
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除非在極端情況下。
18:14
The thing to appreciate
about vehicle safety
about vehicle safety
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我們要意識到車輛的安全性
18:16
is this is probabilistic.
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是概率事件。
18:20
I mean, there's some chance that any time
a human driver gets in a car,
a human driver gets in a car,
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我的意思是任何時候
都有可能因為人為疏失而發生車禍，
18:24
that they will have an accident
that is their fault.
that is their fault.
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18:27
It's never zero.
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概率從來不是零。
18:29
So really the key threshold for autonomy
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事實上，自動駕駛的關鍵障礙是
18:33
is how much better does autonomy
need to be than a person
need to be than a person
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自動駕駛比人駕駛要好過多少，
然後你就能夠依賴它。
18:38
before you can rely on it?
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18:39
CA: But once you get
literally safe hands-off driving,
literally safe hands-off driving,
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3416
安：一旦你的安全自駕成真，
18:43
the power to disrupt
the whole industry seems massive,
the whole industry seems massive,
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看來它顛覆整個業界的
力量會很巨大，
力量會很巨大，
18:45
because at that point you've spoken
of people being able to buy a car,
of people being able to buy a car,
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因為你說的是到時候
能買輛車載你去上班，
能買輛車載你去上班，
18:50
drops you off at work,
and then you let it go
and then you let it go
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1118360
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然後讓那車像 Uber 那樣
接送其他的人，
接送其他的人，
18:52
and provide a sort of Uber-like
service to other people,
service to other people,
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為你賺錢，甚至分擔你租車的費用，
18:56
earn you money,
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18:57
maybe even cover the cost
of your lease of that car,
of your lease of that car,
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19:00
so you can kind of get a car for free.
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就像你能免費得了一輛車。
19:02
Is that really likely?
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真的有可能嗎？
19:03
EM: Yeah. Absolutely
this is what will happen.
this is what will happen.
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馬：是的，這絕對會發生。
19:06
So there will be a shared autonomy fleet
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以後會有共用的自駕車隊。
19:08
where you buy your car
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你買輛車，
19:09
and you can choose
to use that car exclusively,
to use that car exclusively,
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3416
可選擇只供自己一個人使用，
19:13
you could choose to have it be used
only by friends and family,
only by friends and family,
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也可以僅給親朋好友使用，
19:16
only by other drivers
who are rated five star,
who are rated five star,
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5056
或僅限於其他有五星評級的用車人，
19:21
you can choose to share it sometimes
but not other times.
but not other times.
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你可以選擇分享這車的時段。
19:28
That's 100 percent what will occur.
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這百分之百會發生，
19:31
It's just a question of when.
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只不過是時間早晚而已。
19:33
CA: Wow.
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安：喔。
19:35
So you mentioned the Semi
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你提到了半掛式卡車，
19:37
and I think you're planning
to announce this in September,
to announce this in September,
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我記得你打算在九月發佈，
19:40
but I'm curious whether there's
anything you could show us today?
anything you could show us today?
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但我想知道今天
你打算讓我們看看嗎？
你打算讓我們看看嗎？
19:43
EM: I will show you
a teaser shot of the truck.
a teaser shot of the truck.
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馬：我帶來了卡車預告片的海報。
19:47
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
19:49
It's alive.
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它活生生的。
19:51
CA: OK.
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安：不錯。
19:52
EM: That's definitely a case
where we want to be cautious
where we want to be cautious
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馬：這絕對是我們對於
自駕功能要謹慎的例子。
自駕功能要謹慎的例子。
19:55
about the autonomy features.
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1334
19:58
Yeah.
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1216
沒錯。
19:59
(Laughter)
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1616
（笑聲）
20:01
CA: We can't see that much of it,
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安：我們看不太清楚，
20:02
but it doesn't look like
just a little friendly neighborhood truck.
just a little friendly neighborhood truck.
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3216
但看起來不像友善的鄰家卡車，
20:06
It looks kind of badass.
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看起來有點像是個壞蛋。
20:07
What sort of semi is this?
388
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3160
這是什麼樣的半掛車？
20:11
EM: So this is a heavy duty,
long-range semitruck.
long-range semitruck.
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馬：這是重負載、長程的半掛式卡車。
20:15
So it's the highest weight capability
390
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4256
它載重最高，
20:20
and with long range.
391
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還能跑很遠，
20:23
So essentially it's meant to alleviate
the heavy-duty trucking loads.
the heavy-duty trucking loads.
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5440
本質上就是載重用途。
20:29
And this is something which
people do not today think is possible.
people do not today think is possible.
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5296
現今人們認為這不可能，
20:34
They think the truck doesn't have enough
power or it doesn't have enough range,
power or it doesn't have enough range,
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他們認為卡車的電力不夠，
跑不了太遠；
跑不了太遠；
20:38
and then with the Tesla Semi
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我們要用特斯拉半掛車
顯示給他們看，
顯示給他們看，
20:40
we want to show that no, an electric truck
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實際上電動卡車的扭矩
20:43
actually can out-torque any diesel semi.
397
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6016
勝過任何柴油半掛式卡車。
20:49
And if you had a tug-of-war competition,
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如果來場拔河比賽，
20:53
the Tesla Semi
will tug the diesel semi uphill.
will tug the diesel semi uphill.
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特斯拉半掛會把柴油半掛車拉上山。
20:58
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
21:01
(Applause)
401
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（掌聲）
21:03
CA: That's pretty cool.
And short term, these aren't driverless.
And short term, these aren't driverless.
402
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3016
安：那真是酷。短期來看，
還不是無人駕駛。
還不是無人駕駛。
21:06
These are going to be trucks
that truck drivers want to drive.
that truck drivers want to drive.
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3320
這是卡車司機很想開的那種車。
21:10
EM: Yes. So what will be
really fun about this
really fun about this
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1258480
2616
馬：是的。那真正好玩有趣的是
21:13
is you have a flat torque RPM curve
with an electric motor,
with an electric motor,
405
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5376
用電動馬達，你會有條
平滑的扭矩／轉速曲線，
平滑的扭矩／轉速曲線，
21:18
whereas with a diesel motor or any kind
of internal combustion engine car,
of internal combustion engine car,
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3496
而柴油發動機或任意類型內燃機的
21:22
you've got a torque RPM curve
that looks like a hill.
that looks like a hill.
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扭矩／轉速曲線像山形。
21:25
So this will be a very spry truck.
408
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2936
這將是非常輕快的卡車，
21:28
You can drive this
around like a sports car.
around like a sports car.
409
1276800
2856
開它就像開跑車一樣。
21:31
There's no gears.
It's, like, single speed.
It's, like, single speed.
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沒有齒輪，有點像單速車。
21:34
CA: There's a great movie
to be made here somewhere.
to be made here somewhere.
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安：這裡頭有些東西
可以拍成好影片，
可以拍成好影片，
21:36
I don't know what it is
and I don't know that it ends well,
and I don't know that it ends well,
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我不知道是什麼，也不曉得結局，
但是一部好片子。
21:39
but it's a great movie.
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（笑聲）
21:40
(Laughter)
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1016
馬：那是次非常奇怪的試駕。
21:41
EM: It's quite bizarre test-driving.
415
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2736
21:44
When I was driving the test prototype
for the first truck.
for the first truck.
416
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當我開著第一輛原型卡車，
21:48
It's really weird,
because you're driving around
because you're driving around
417
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2256
真的很詭異，
因為你開著這輛巨大的卡車，
而你又覺得它那麽輕巧靈敏。
而你又覺得它那麽輕巧靈敏。
21:50
and you're just so nimble,
and you're in this giant truck.
and you're in this giant truck.
418
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3096
21:53
CA: Wait, you've
already driven a prototype?
already driven a prototype?
419
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3496
安：你說什麽？你開過原型車了？
21:57
EM: Yeah, I drove it
around the parking lot,
around the parking lot,
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1305360
2096
馬：是的，我在停車場試車，
當時我覺得這真是瘋狂。
21:59
and I was like, this is crazy.
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22:00
CA: Wow. This is no vaporware.
422
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2176
安：喔！這不是霧件（Vaporware：
指先公布，但可能不會發佈的產品。）
指先公布，但可能不會發佈的產品。）
22:03
EM: It's just like,
driving this giant truck
driving this giant truck
423
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2096
馬：我就這樣，開著這輛巨無霸
22:05
and making these mad maneuvers.
424
1313280
1976
做各式各樣奇怪的駕駛伎倆。
22:07
CA: This is cool.
OK, from a really badass picture
OK, from a really badass picture
425
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安：好酷。挺好。
從一張大壞蛋的照片到
不太壞的壞蛋照片，
不太壞的壞蛋照片，
22:09
to a kind of less badass picture.
426
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2616
22:12
This is just a cute house
from "Desperate Housewives" or something.
from "Desperate Housewives" or something.
427
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3336
這好像是絕望主婦劇組那房子，
22:15
What on earth is going on here?
428
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3056
這到底是怎麽一回事？
22:18
EM: Well, this illustrates
the picture of the future
the picture of the future
429
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2456
馬：嗯，這描繪未來的樣子，
22:21
that I think is how things will evolve.
430
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2976
也就是我想像的未來會如何演進。
22:24
You've got an electric car
in the driveway.
in the driveway.
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2336
有輛電動車停在車道上，
22:26
If you look in between
the electric car and the house,
the electric car and the house,
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3736
如果你細看車子和房子中間，
22:30
there are actually three Powerwalls
stacked up against the side of the house,
stacked up against the side of the house,
433
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3856
在房子邊實際上有三個家用電池，
22:34
and then that house roof is a solar roof.
434
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2816
還有太陽能屋頂，
22:37
So that's an actual solar glass roof.
435
1345160
2096
是個真正的太陽能玻璃屋頂。
22:39
CA: OK.
436
1347280
1216
安：好的。
22:40
EM: That's a picture of a real --
well, admittedly, it's a real fake house.
well, admittedly, it's a real fake house.
437
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4256
馬：我得說，照片裡是「真的」假房子。
22:44
That's a real fake house.
438
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1656
是「真的」假房子。
22:46
(Laughter)
439
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3096
（笑聲）
22:49
CA: So these roof tiles,
440
1357600
1856
安：這些屋瓦，
22:51
some of them have in them
basically solar power, the ability to --
basically solar power, the ability to --
441
1359480
6136
有些屋瓦
基本上就能產生太陽能。
22:57
EM: Yeah. Solar glass tiles
442
1365640
1696
馬：對，太陽能玻璃瓦，
22:59
where you can adjust
the texture and the color
the texture and the color
443
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可以調節質地和顔色，
23:04
to a very fine-grained level,
444
1372480
1976
在細度上調節。
23:06
and then there's
sort of microlouvers in the glass,
sort of microlouvers in the glass,
445
1374480
5576
還有類似玻璃的微型百葉窗，
23:12
such that when you're looking
at the roof from street level
at the roof from street level
446
1380080
3456
這樣當你站在街上仰望屋頂，
23:15
or close to street level,
447
1383560
1696
或者站在接近地平的位置，
23:17
all the tiles look the same
448
1385280
2376
所有的瓦片看著都一樣，
23:19
whether there is a solar cell
behind it or not.
behind it or not.
449
1387680
5080
不管後面有沒有太陽能電池。
23:26
So you have an even color
450
1394000
3416
顔色會看起來很整齊，
23:29
from the ground level.
451
1397440
3496
如果從地面向上看的話。
23:32
If you were to look at it
from a helicopter,
from a helicopter,
452
1400960
2096
如果從直升機往下看，
23:35
you would be actually able
to look through and see
to look through and see
453
1403080
2376
實際上可以看穿，
看到在玻璃瓦下面，
23:37
that some of the glass tiles have
a solar cell behind them and some do not.
a solar cell behind them and some do not.
454
1405480
4016
有些有太陽能電池，有些沒有。
23:41
You can't tell from street level.
455
1409520
1616
但站在街上是無法區分的。
23:43
CA: You put them in the ones
that are likely to see a lot of sun,
that are likely to see a lot of sun,
456
1411160
3056
安：把它們安置在陽光多的地方，
使得這些屋頂超實惠，不是嗎？
23:46
and that makes these roofs
super affordable, right?
super affordable, right?
457
1414240
2376
比起普通屋頂的瓦片，
它其實也沒那麽貴。
它其實也沒那麽貴。
23:48
They're not that much more expensive
than just tiling the roof.
than just tiling the roof.
458
1416640
2976
馬：是的。
23:51
EM: Yeah.
459
1419640
1200
23:53
We're very confident
that the cost of the roof
that the cost of the roof
460
1421840
2600
我們對屋頂的成本
23:57
plus the cost of electricity --
461
1425840
1920
加電費很有信心──
24:01
A solar glass roof will be less
than the cost of a normal roof
than the cost of a normal roof
462
1429920
2936
陽光玻璃屋頂將比
普通屋頂的造價加上電費便宜。
24:04
plus the cost of electricity.
463
1432880
1416
24:06
So in other words,
464
1434320
1256
也就是說，
24:07
this will be economically a no-brainer,
465
1435600
4336
它的經濟實惠將毫無疑問。
我們覺得它看起來會很棒，
24:11
we think it will look great,
466
1439960
1696
24:13
and it will last --
467
1441680
2136
而且會持續──
24:15
We thought about having
the warranty be infinity,
the warranty be infinity,
468
1443840
3056
我們想過要終身保固，
24:18
but then people thought,
469
1446920
1216
但有人會覺得
24:20
well, that might sound
like were just talking rubbish,
like were just talking rubbish,
470
1448160
2576
聼起來像是胡說八道。
24:22
but actually this is toughened glass.
471
1450760
5616
但實際上它是強化玻璃，
24:28
Well after the house has collapsed
472
1456400
2896
就算房子崩塌也完好無損，
24:31
and there's nothing there,
473
1459320
1896
房子沒了，
24:33
the glass tiles will still be there.
474
1461240
3536
但玻璃瓦還會在。
24:36
(Applause)
475
1464800
1576
（掌聲）
安：我的天，太酷了。
24:38
CA: I mean, this is cool.
476
1466400
1736
你幾周後就要推出了，
24:40
So you're rolling this out
in a couple week's time, I think,
in a couple week's time, I think,
477
1468160
2856
四款不同的屋頂型號供選擇。
24:43
with four different roofing types.
478
1471040
2536
24:45
EM: Yeah, we're starting off
with two, two initially,
with two, two initially,
479
1473600
2536
馬：是的，我們一開始只推出兩款，
24:48
and the second two
will be introduced early next year.
will be introduced early next year.
480
1476160
3176
另外兩款會在明年初推出。
24:51
CA: And what's the scale of ambition here?
481
1479360
2056
安：這是什麼樣的雄心規模呢？
24:53
How many houses do you believe
could end up having this type of roofing?
could end up having this type of roofing?
482
1481440
5520
你覺得這樣的屋頂會裝設多少？
24:59
EM: I think eventually
483
1487760
1400
馬：我估計最終──
25:02
almost all houses will have a solar roof.
484
1490560
3640
幾乎所有的房子
最終都會有太陽能屋頂。
最終都會有太陽能屋頂。
25:07
The thing is to consider
the time scale here
the time scale here
485
1495880
3536
如果算上時間，
25:11
to be probably on the order
486
1499440
2456
可能估計要花上
25:13
of 40 or 50 years.
487
1501920
3176
40 到 50 年。
25:17
So on average, a roof
is replaced every 20 to 25 years.
is replaced every 20 to 25 years.
488
1505120
4880
通常每 20-25 年要更換屋頂，
25:23
But you don't start replacing
all roofs immediately.
all roofs immediately.
489
1511400
3336
但不可能立刻把屋頂全數換掉，
25:26
But eventually,
if you say were to fast-forward
if you say were to fast-forward
490
1514760
3336
但如果將時間快轉到
25:30
to say 15 years from now,
491
1518120
3456
從現在算起的 15 年後，
25:33
it will be unusual to have a roof
that does not have solar.
that does not have solar.
492
1521600
3600
不具備太陽能的屋頂將會很不尋常。
25:37
CA: Is there a mental model thing
that people don't get here
that people don't get here
493
1525840
2856
安：是否有人們不這麼做的心理模式，
25:40
that because of the shift in the cost,
the economics of solar power,
the economics of solar power,
494
1528720
4416
由於換屋頂的高造價
和太陽能的效益？
和太陽能的效益？
25:45
most houses actually have
enough sunlight on their roof
enough sunlight on their roof
495
1533160
4096
實際上大部分屋頂的陽光充足，
25:49
pretty much to power all of their needs.
496
1537280
2056
足以供應日常所需的電力；
25:51
If you could capture the power,
497
1539360
1896
假使這些電力能被儲存起來，
25:53
it could pretty much
power all their needs.
power all their needs.
498
1541280
2056
那麼供電會綽綽有餘，
25:55
You could go off-grid, kind of.
499
1543360
1536
可能無需併入電網，對吧？
25:56
EM: It depends on where you are
500
1544920
1536
馬：這還得看你住在哪裡，
25:58
and what the house size is
relative to the roof area,
relative to the roof area,
501
1546480
3256
住家相對於屋頂的規模大小。
26:01
but it's a fair statement to say
502
1549760
1856
但可以說，
26:03
that most houses in the US
have enough roof area
have enough roof area
503
1551640
4816
大多數美國房子的屋頂面積
足以供應該房子日常所需的能耗。
26:08
to power all the needs of the house.
504
1556480
1960
26:11
CA: So the key to the economics
505
1559800
3176
安：所以一切成本的關鍵點，
26:15
of the cars, the Semi, of these houses
506
1563000
4016
對於汽車、半掛、還有這些房子而言，
26:19
is the falling price
of lithium-ion batteries,
of lithium-ion batteries,
507
1567040
3896
在於鋰電池價格的回落。
26:22
which you've made a huge bet on as Tesla.
508
1570960
2496
所以你在特斯拉上押了大注。
26:25
In many ways, that's almost
the core competency.
the core competency.
509
1573480
2256
在很多方面，這幾乎是核心競爭力。
26:27
And you've decided
510
1575760
2256
於是你決定
26:30
that to really, like, own that competency,
511
1578040
5216
要擁有這核心能力，
26:35
you just have to build
the world's largest manufacturing plant
the world's largest manufacturing plant
512
1583280
3456
你非得建世界上最大的電池工廠，
26:38
to double the world's supply
of lithium-ion batteries,
of lithium-ion batteries,
513
1586760
3136
使世界鋰離子電池的供應倍增，
26:41
with this guy. What is this?
514
1589920
2296
靠這個。這是啥？
26:44
EM: Yeah, so that's the Gigafactory,
515
1592240
3456
馬：對，這就是 Gigafactory，
26:47
progress so far on the Gigafactory.
516
1595720
2696
是 Gigafactory 目前為止的進展。
26:50
Eventually, you can sort of roughly see
517
1598440
1896
最終你能大致看到
26:52
that there's sort of
a diamond shape overall,
a diamond shape overall,
518
1600360
2936
它的整體外形有點像是個鑽石；
26:55
and when it's fully done,
it'll look like a giant diamond,
it'll look like a giant diamond,
519
1603320
4616
等全部完工，它就像是顆大鑽石，
26:59
or that's the idea behind it,
520
1607960
2216
那是背後的構想。
27:02
and it's aligned on true north.
521
1610200
1496
它正對正北，
27:03
It's a small detail.
522
1611720
1736
是個小細節。
27:05
CA: And capable of producing, eventually,
523
1613480
3896
安：最終每年將能夠生産
一千億瓦特小時的電池。
（註：一億「度」）
（註：一億「度」）
27:09
like a hundred gigawatt hours
of batteries a year.
of batteries a year.
524
1617400
3176
27:12
EM: A hundred gigawatt hours.
We think probably more, but yeah.
We think probably more, but yeah.
525
1620600
2976
馬：一千億瓦特小時。
可能會更多，不過差不多。
可能會更多，不過差不多。
安：工廠現正產出電池，對吧？
27:15
CA: And they're actually
being produced right now.
being produced right now.
526
1623600
2376
馬：工廠正在產出電池。
安：來放一下這片子。
安：來放一下這片子。
27:18
EM: They're in production already.
CA: You guys put out this video.
CA: You guys put out this video.
527
1626000
3176
我想問：它是在速放嗎？
27:21
I mean, is that speeded up?
528
1629200
1336
馬：其實它是在慢播。
27:22
EM: That's the slowed down version.
529
1630560
1696
27:24
(Laughter)
530
1632280
1776
（笑聲）
27:26
CA: How fast does it actually go?
531
1634080
2336
安：那到底有多快？
27:28
EM: Well, when it's running at full speed,
532
1636440
2816
馬：全速運行時
27:31
you can't actually see the cells
without a strobe light.
without a strobe light.
533
1639280
3936
如果沒有頻閃燈，
你實際上看不到這些電池。
你實際上看不到這些電池。
27:35
It's just blur.
534
1643240
1200
會模糊了。
27:36
(Laughter)
535
1644540
3336
（笑聲）
27:40
CA: One of your core ideas, Elon,
about what makes an exciting future
about what makes an exciting future
536
1648000
3576
安：你有一個核心想法
與讓人興奮的未來有關，
與讓人興奮的未來有關，
27:43
is a future where we no longer
feel guilty about energy.
feel guilty about energy.
537
1651600
2640
是我們不再因消耗能源
而感到愧疚的未來。
而感到愧疚的未來。
27:47
Help us picture this.
538
1655480
1416
帶我們想像一下。
27:48
How many Gigafactories, if you like,
does it take to get us there?
does it take to get us there?
539
1656920
5016
需要多少 Gigafactories 才能實現呢？
27:53
EM: It's about a hundred, roughly.
540
1661960
1736
馬：粗略來説，幾百個吧。
27:55
It's not 10, it's not a thousand.
541
1663720
1736
超過十，但還不到上千。
27:57
Most likely a hundred.
542
1665480
1360
最有可能就幾百個。
28:00
CA: See, I find this amazing.
543
1668040
1656
安：懂了，我覺得很棒。
28:01
You can picture what it would take
544
1669720
3976
你能描繪
解救這大量消耗化石燃料的世界
將會需要些什麼。
將會需要些什麼。
28:05
to move the world
off this vast fossil fuel thing.
off this vast fossil fuel thing.
545
1673720
3256
28:09
It's like you're building one,
546
1677000
2576
就像你建個工廠
28:11
it costs five billion dollars,
547
1679600
2856
要花 50 億美元，
或許下一個要 50 到 100 億之間。
28:14
or whatever, five to 10 billion dollars.
548
1682480
2136
28:16
Like, it's kind of cool
that you can picture that project.
that you can picture that project.
549
1684640
3616
你能描繪出來，很酷。
28:20
And you're planning to do, at Tesla --
announce another two this year.
announce another two this year.
550
1688280
4480
今年你打算宣佈
至少兩個特斯拉的新厰址。
至少兩個特斯拉的新厰址。
28:25
EM: I think we'll announce locations
551
1693480
2856
馬：今年稍後我們將會宣佈
28:28
for somewhere between two
and four Gigafactories later this year.
and four Gigafactories later this year.
552
1696360
3736
2 到 4 個 Gigafactories 新址。
28:32
Yeah, probably four.
553
1700120
1440
嗯，可能是 4 家。
28:34
CA: Whoa.
554
1702040
1616
安：哇。
28:35
(Applause)
555
1703680
2616
（掌聲）
28:38
No more teasing from you for here?
556
1706320
4056
不能再透露一些嗎？
28:42
Like -- where, continent?
557
1710400
2800
像是──在哪裏？哪個洲?
28:47
You can say no.
558
1715480
1200
你可以不回答。
28:49
EM: We need to address a global market.
559
1717440
3776
馬：我們需要解決全球市場問題。
28:53
CA: OK.
560
1721240
1216
安：好。
28:54
(Laughter)
561
1722480
1336
（笑聲）
28:55
This is cool.
562
1723840
1200
這太酷了。
28:59
I think we should talk for --
563
1727480
4240
我想再聊──
29:04
Actually, double mark it.
564
1732560
1616
竟然，全球市場。
29:06
I'm going to ask you one question
about politics, only one.
about politics, only one.
565
1734200
4096
我得問個政治話題，就一個。
29:10
I'm kind of sick of politics,
but I do want to ask you this.
but I do want to ask you this.
566
1738320
3256
我個人不喜歡政治，但我還是得問。
29:13
You're on a body now
giving advice to a guy --
giving advice to a guy --
567
1741600
6336
你現在是某人的委員會成員，
可以建議他──
可以建議他──
29:19
EM: Who?
568
1747960
1216
馬：誰？
29:21
CA: Who has said he doesn't
really believe in climate change,
really believe in climate change,
569
1749200
2896
安：那個自稱不相信氣候變化的傢伙。
29:24
and there's a lot of people out there
who think you shouldn't be doing that.
who think you shouldn't be doing that.
570
1752120
4336
很多人認為你不應該涉入。
29:28
They'd like you to walk away from that.
571
1756480
1896
他們希望你脫身。
29:30
What would you say to them?
572
1758400
1360
你怎麼回應呢？
29:32
EM: Well, I think that first of all,
573
1760720
3616
馬：首先，我覺得
29:36
I'm just on two advisory councils
574
1764360
2536
我隸屬於兩個諮詢委員會，
29:38
where the format consists
of going around the room
of going around the room
575
1766920
2816
既定的程序是環顧會議室
29:41
and asking people's opinion on things,
576
1769760
2896
詢問大家對事物的看法，
29:44
and so there's like a meeting
every month or two.
every month or two.
577
1772680
3760
每一、兩個月開一次會。
29:49
That's the sum total of my contribution.
578
1777560
3216
我也就做了這麽點事情。
29:52
But I think to the degree
that there are people in the room
that there are people in the room
579
1780800
2776
某些程度上，會議室裡有些人
29:55
who are arguing in favor
of doing something about climate change,
of doing something about climate change,
580
1783600
4736
贊成為氣候變化做些事情，
30:00
or social issues,
581
1788360
4000
或者為社會議題做些事。
30:06
I've used the meetings I've had thus far
582
1794520
3216
目前我藉由參與的會議
30:09
to argue in favor of immigration
and in favor of climate change.
and in favor of climate change.
583
1797760
4856
發言支持移民和支持氣候變化。
30:14
(Applause)
584
1802640
1936
（掌聲）
30:16
And if I hadn't done that,
585
1804600
2096
如果我沒有那樣做，
30:18
that wasn't on the agenda before.
586
1806720
2816
它們之前根本沒被列在議程裡。
30:21
So maybe nothing will happen,
but at least the words were said.
but at least the words were said.
587
1809560
4240
可能什麽都不會發生，
但至少我把話說了。
但至少我把話說了。
30:26
CA: OK.
588
1814680
1216
安：沒錯。
30:27
(Applause)
589
1815920
2880
（掌聲）
30:31
So let's talk SpaceX and Mars.
590
1819800
3536
我們來聊聊 SpaceX 和移民火星。
30:35
Last time you were here,
591
1823360
1456
上次你在這裡
30:36
you spoke about what seemed like
a kind of incredibly ambitious dream
a kind of incredibly ambitious dream
592
1824840
3696
講了外人看來
極不可思議的雄心計劃，
極不可思議的雄心計劃，
30:40
to develop rockets
that were actually reusable.
that were actually reusable.
593
1828560
4296
要開發可回收的火箭。
30:44
And you've only gone and done it.
594
1832880
2136
然後你就去做，還做成了。
馬：是的，花了不少時間。
30:47
EM: Finally. It took a long time.
595
1835040
1616
30:48
CA: Talk us through this.
What are we looking at here?
What are we looking at here?
596
1836680
2576
安：帶我們看看，現在看到的是什麽？
馬：這是個火箭推進器，
30:51
EM: So this is one of our rocket boosters
597
1839280
2136
30:53
coming back from
very high and fast in space.
very high and fast in space.
598
1841440
4576
超快速從超高的外太空返回地面。
30:58
So just delivered the upper stage
599
1846040
3256
剛剛把火箭前面那一節送到外太空，
31:01
at high velocity.
600
1849320
2096
速度超快。
31:03
I think this might have been
at sort of Mach 7 or so,
at sort of Mach 7 or so,
601
1851440
3856
我估計七倍音速左右。
31:07
delivery of the upper stage.
602
1855320
1960
送出前一節。
31:10
(Applause)
603
1858880
2000
（掌聲）
31:13
CA: So that was a sped-up --
604
1861840
1496
安：所以這是加速版。
31:15
EM: That was the slowed down version.
605
1863360
1816
馬：它是減速慢播版。
31:17
(Laughter)
606
1865200
1336
（笑聲）
31:18
CA: I thought that was
the sped-up version.
the sped-up version.
607
1866560
2496
安：我還以為是加速版，
31:21
But I mean, that's amazing,
608
1869080
1336
那真的很棒。
31:22
and several of these failed
609
1870440
1336
失敗了幾次之後
你終於知道怎麽做了。
你終於知道怎麽做了。
31:23
before you finally
figured out how to do it,
figured out how to do it,
610
1871800
2936
31:26
but now you've done this,
what, five or six times?
what, five or six times?
611
1874760
2896
至今你成功著陸幾次？五或六次？
31:29
EM: We're at eight or nine.
612
1877680
2296
馬：我想是八或九次。
31:32
CA: And for the first time,
613
1880000
1616
安：你重飛之前著陸過的火箭
31:33
you've actually reflown
one of the rockets that landed.
one of the rockets that landed.
614
1881640
3136
真的是創舉。
31:36
EM: Yeah, so we landed the rocket booster
615
1884800
2776
馬：是的，我們降落火箭推進器，
31:39
and then prepped it for flight again
and flew it again,
and flew it again,
616
1887600
2616
準備好再次升空，又飛了一次。
31:42
so it's the first reflight
of an orbital booster
of an orbital booster
617
1890240
5176
這是首次火箭助推器再飛。
31:47
where that reflight is relevant.
618
1895440
1976
再飛的意義重大，
31:49
So it's important to appreciate
that reusability is only relevant
that reusability is only relevant
619
1897440
3176
重要的是要認識到
可重用性只有在
快速和完整的情況下才算數。
快速和完整的情況下才算數。
31:52
if it is rapid and complete.
620
1900640
4080
31:57
So like an aircraft or a car,
621
1905400
3256
像飛機和汽車的可重用性
快速而完整。
快速而完整。
32:00
the reusability is rapid and complete.
622
1908680
2376
32:03
You do not send your aircraft
to Boeing in-between flights.
to Boeing in-between flights.
623
1911080
5056
無須在航班與航班之間
把飛機送回波音工廠。
把飛機送回波音工廠。
32:08
CA: Right. So this is allowing you
to dream of this really ambitious idea
to dream of this really ambitious idea
624
1916160
4816
安：是啊，這讓你夢想著
真正雄心勃勃的想法，
32:13
of sending many, many, many people to Mars
625
1921000
3176
要把好多好多人送往火星……
32:16
in, what, 10 or 20 years time, I guess.
626
1924200
2416
多久？我猜是 10 到 20 年後。
32:18
EM: Yeah.
627
1926640
1376
馬：是的。
32:20
CA: And you've designed
this outrageous rocket to do it.
this outrageous rocket to do it.
628
1928040
3416
安：於是你設計了
這不尋常的火箭來實現。
這不尋常的火箭來實現。
帶我們了解它的規模。
32:23
Help us understand
the scale of this thing.
the scale of this thing.
629
1931480
2416
32:25
EM: Well, visually
you can see that's a person.
you can see that's a person.
630
1933920
4880
馬：好。你看到一個人，
32:32
Yeah, and that's the vehicle.
631
1940680
1816
而那是火箭載具。
32:34
(Laughter)
632
1942520
1656
（笑聲）
32:36
CA: So if that was a skyscraper,
633
1944200
1736
安：如果那是座摩天大樓，
32:37
that's like, did I read that,
a 40-story skyscraper?
a 40-story skyscraper?
634
1945960
3336
就像是 40 層的大樓，對嗎？
32:41
EM: Probably a little more, yeah.
635
1949320
1600
馬：有可能再多幾層。
32:44
The thrust level of this is really --
636
1952360
4000
火箭推力可真是──
32:50
This configuration is about four times
the thrust of the Saturn V moon rocket.
the thrust of the Saturn V moon rocket.
637
1958360
4920
推力約是農神 5 號運載火箭的四倍。
32:56
CA: Four times the thrust of the biggest
rocket humanity ever created before.
rocket humanity ever created before.
638
1964440
4856
安：之前人類造過的
最大火箭的四倍？
最大火箭的四倍？
33:01
EM: Yeah. Yeah.
639
1969320
1200
馬：沒錯。
33:04
CA: As one does.
EM: Yeah.
EM: Yeah.
640
1972640
1456
安：就那樣。
馬：沒錯。
馬：沒錯。
33:06
(Laughter)
641
1974120
2976
（笑聲）
33:09
In units of 747, a 747 is only about
a quarter of a million pounds of thrust,
a quarter of a million pounds of thrust,
642
1977120
5976
馬：跟 747 飛機比，
一架 747 僅有 25 萬磅助推力，
33:15
so for every 10 million pounds of thrust,
643
1983120
3096
每一千萬磅的助推力
33:18
there's 40 747s.
644
1986240
1696
需要 40 架 747。
33:19
So this would be the thrust equivalent
of 120 747s, with all engines blazing.
of 120 747s, with all engines blazing.
645
1987960
6256
它的推力應該相當於
120 架的 747，
120 架的 747，
如果引擎全開的話。
33:26
CA: And so even with a machine
designed to escape Earth's gravity,
designed to escape Earth's gravity,
646
1994240
4216
安：即使設計來脫離
地球重力的這台機器──
地球重力的這台機器──
33:30
I think you told me last time
647
1998480
1416
記得你上次跟我說過，
33:31
this thing could actually
take a fully loaded 747,
take a fully loaded 747,
648
1999920
3256
它還能裝下滿載的 747，
33:35
people, cargo, everything,
649
2003200
2336
人員、物資，每樣東西，
33:37
into orbit.
650
2005560
1256
送上軌道。
33:38
EM: Exactly. This can take
a fully loaded 747 with maximum fuel,
a fully loaded 747 with maximum fuel,
651
2006840
5136
馬：沒錯。它能承載
一架加滿油的 747 飛機，
一架加滿油的 747 飛機，
33:44
maximum passengers,
maximum cargo on the 747 --
maximum cargo on the 747 --
652
2012000
4496
滿員、滿貨的 747──
33:48
this can take it as cargo.
653
2016520
2240
它能把 747 當成貨物。
33:52
CA: So based on this,
654
2020080
1736
安：基於此，
33:53
you presented recently
this Interplanetary Transport System
this Interplanetary Transport System
655
2021840
4816
最近你介紹了星際運輸系統
33:58
which is visualized this way.
656
2026680
3376
看起來這樣。
34:02
This is a scene you picture in, what,
30 years time? 20 years time?
30 years time? 20 years time?
657
2030080
4080
你描繪的是什麼時候的場景？
30 年後？ 20 年後？
30 年後？ 20 年後？
34:06
People walking into this rocket.
658
2034880
2576
人們進入火箭。
34:09
EM: I'm hopeful it's sort of
an eight- to 10-year time frame.
an eight- to 10-year time frame.
659
2037480
4576
馬：我希望是 8 到 10 年後。
34:14
Aspirationally, that's our target.
660
2042080
2376
我滿心期望，這是我們的目標。
34:16
Our internal targets
are more aggressive, but I think --
are more aggressive, but I think --
661
2044480
3016
我們內部的目標更積極，
不過我覺得……
不過我覺得……
34:19
(Laughter)
662
2047520
2159
（笑聲）
34:23
CA: OK.
663
2051600
1215
安：好吧。
34:24
EM: While vehicle seems quite large
664
2052840
2136
馬：這飛行器看起來好像很大，
34:27
and is large by comparison
with other rockets,
with other rockets,
665
2055000
2176
跟其他火箭比起來，是大了點。
34:29
I think the future spacecraft
666
2057199
3977
但我覺得跟未來的航空器比起來，
34:33
will make this look like a rowboat.
667
2061199
3841
它就像是艘小艇。
34:38
The future spaceships
will be truly enormous.
will be truly enormous.
668
2066320
4696
未來的太空船會是巨無霸。
34:43
CA: Why, Elon?
669
2071040
2176
安：為什麼？伊隆。
34:45
Why do we need to build a city on Mars
670
2073239
4137
為什麽我們得在火星上造城？
34:49
with a million people
on it in your lifetime,
on it in your lifetime,
671
2077400
3056
為什麼在你的有生之年
要送上百萬人去火星？
要送上百萬人去火星？
34:52
which I think is kind of
what you've said you'd love to do?
what you've said you'd love to do?
672
2080480
3000
我彷彿記得你說過那是你愛做的事。
34:56
EM: I think it's important to have
673
2084480
2759
馬：我覺得這很重要：
35:01
a future that is inspiring and appealing.
674
2089120
2736
有個令人欣然嚮往、
鼓舞人心的未來。
鼓舞人心的未來。
35:03
I just think there have to be reasons
675
2091880
2776
人活著得有理由
35:06
that you get up in the morning
and you want to live.
and you want to live.
676
2094679
2937
讓你早上起床，想要活下去。
35:09
Like, why do you want to live?
677
2097640
1456
為什麽要活下去？
35:11
What's the point? What inspires you?
678
2099120
1736
有什麼意思？ 什麼激勵了你？
35:12
What do you love about the future?
679
2100880
1856
你愛未來的什麼？
35:14
And if we're not out there,
680
2102760
1496
如果我們不在外太空，
35:16
if the future does not include
being out there among the stars
being out there among the stars
681
2104280
4016
如果未來不包括身在星際間，
35:20
and being a multiplanet species,
682
2108320
1696
不身為多個星球的物種，
35:22
I find that it's incredibly depressing
683
2110040
2496
我會無比沮喪，
35:24
if that's not the future
that we're going to have.
that we're going to have.
684
2112560
3336
如果那不是我們的未來的話。
35:27
(Applause)
685
2115920
4176
（掌聲）
35:32
CA: People want to position this
as an either or,
as an either or,
686
2120120
2336
安：人們想定位為非此即彼，
35:34
that there are so many desperate things
happening on the planet now
happening on the planet now
687
2122480
3696
畢竟地球上有那麼多危急之事，
35:38
from climate to poverty
to, you know, you pick your issue.
to, you know, you pick your issue.
688
2126200
3440
從氣候問題到貧窮，選問題來解決。
35:42
And this feels like a distraction.
689
2130480
2536
這看起來像是分心，
35:45
You shouldn't be thinking about this.
690
2133040
1816
你不該思考這，
35:46
You should be solving what's here and now.
691
2134880
2176
而應該去解決眼前和當下的問題。
35:49
And to be fair, you've done
a fair old bit to actually do that
a fair old bit to actually do that
692
2137080
2936
公平地說，你在
永續能源方面已做了些。
永續能源方面已做了些。
35:52
with your work on sustainable energy.
693
2140040
2816
35:54
But why not just do that?
694
2142880
2040
為什麽不專注於那個呢？
35:59
EM: I think there's --
695
2147360
2080
馬：我想這──
36:04
I look at the future
from the standpoint of probabilities.
from the standpoint of probabilities.
696
2152840
4416
我從概率的角度來看待未來。
36:09
It's like a branching
stream of probabilities,
stream of probabilities,
697
2157280
4176
這就像概率流的分支，
36:13
and there are actions that we can take
that affect those probabilities
that affect those probabilities
698
2161480
5000
我們採取的一些行動
會影響這些概率，
會影響這些概率，
36:19
or that accelerate one thing
or slow down another thing.
or slow down another thing.
699
2167920
3200
會加速一件或減緩另一件。
36:24
I may introduce something new
to the probability stream.
to the probability stream.
700
2172000
4120
我可能給概率流加了新的東西。
36:30
Sustainable energy
will happen no matter what.
will happen no matter what.
701
2178840
2176
不管怎樣，永續能源是會實現的。
36:33
If there was no Tesla,
if Tesla never existed,
if Tesla never existed,
702
2181040
2496
如果沒有特斯拉，
如果特斯拉不存在，
如果特斯拉不存在，
36:35
it would have to happen out of necessity.
703
2183560
2856
它也必然發生。
36:38
It's tautological.
704
2186440
1576
它是反覆循環的。
36:40
If you don't have sustainable energy,
it means you have unsustainable energy.
it means you have unsustainable energy.
705
2188040
3656
假如你沒有永續能源，
也就是你的能源不永續，
也就是你的能源不永續，
你的能源終將消耗殆盡。
36:43
Eventually you will run out,
706
2191720
1616
36:45
and the laws of economics
will drive civilization
will drive civilization
707
2193360
5816
經濟的規律將驅動文明
36:51
towards sustainable energy,
708
2199200
1656
走向永續能源。
36:52
inevitably.
709
2200880
1216
這是必然。
36:54
The fundamental value
of a company like Tesla
of a company like Tesla
710
2202120
2976
像特斯拉這樣的公司的基本價值
36:57
is the degree to which it accelerates
the advent of sustainable energy,
the advent of sustainable energy,
711
2205120
4416
就是加快永續能源的出現，
37:01
faster than it would otherwise occur.
712
2209560
1762
比原本的快。
37:05
So when I think, like,
713
2213120
1216
每當我思考
37:06
what is the fundamental good
of a company like Tesla,
of a company like Tesla,
714
2214360
2736
像特斯拉這樣的公司的
基本價值是什麼時，
基本價值是什麼時，
37:09
I would say, hopefully,
715
2217120
1696
我會希望
37:10
if it accelerated that by a decade,
potentially more than a decade,
potentially more than a decade,
716
2218840
5616
如果它能加快十年，可能多於十年，
37:16
that would be quite a good thing to occur.
717
2224480
2136
這將是極好的事情。
37:18
That's what I consider to be
718
2226640
1616
我認為這就是
37:20
the fundamental
aspirational good of Tesla.
aspirational good of Tesla.
719
2228280
4080
特斯拉的基本理想抱負。
37:25
Then there's becoming a multiplanet
species and space-faring civilization.
species and space-faring civilization.
720
2233480
6336
至於成為多行星的物種
和有能力探索太空文明，
和有能力探索太空文明，
37:31
This is not inevitable.
721
2239840
1936
並不是必然的。
37:33
It's very important to appreciate
this is not inevitable.
this is not inevitable.
722
2241800
2696
認知這不是必然的，相當重要。
我認為使用永續能源的未來
基本上是不可避免的，
基本上是不可避免的，
37:36
The sustainable energy future
I think is largely inevitable,
I think is largely inevitable,
723
2244520
3096
37:39
but being a space-faring civilization
is definitely not inevitable.
is definitely not inevitable.
724
2247640
4736
但有能力探索太空的文明絕非必然。
37:44
If you look at the progress in space,
725
2252400
4176
回顧太空進展，
37:48
in 1969 you were able
to send somebody to the moon.
to send somebody to the moon.
726
2256600
2600
1969 年，我們能把人類送上月球。
37:52
1969.
727
2260040
1200
是 1969 年啊。
37:54
Then we had the Space Shuttle.
728
2262840
2896
後來有了太空梭，
37:57
The Space Shuttle could only
take people to low Earth orbit.
take people to low Earth orbit.
729
2265760
3416
太空梭只能把人送到近地軌道。
38:01
Then the Space Shuttle retired,
730
2269200
1536
接著太空梭退了下來，
38:02
and the United States
could take no one to orbit.
could take no one to orbit.
731
2270760
2400
美國再也沒能送人上軌道。
38:06
So that's the trend.
732
2274320
1256
那就是趨勢，
38:07
The trend is like down to nothing.
733
2275600
2680
像是化為烏有的趨勢。
38:11
People are mistaken when they think
734
2279560
2376
人們誤以為技術會自動提升。
38:13
that technology
just automatically improves.
just automatically improves.
735
2281960
2096
38:16
It does not automatically improve.
736
2284080
1896
但技術不會自動提升，
38:18
It only improves if a lot of people
work very hard to make it better,
work very hard to make it better,
737
2286000
4656
只有許多人戮力改善才使它變好，
38:22
and actually it will, I think,
by itself degrade, actually.
by itself degrade, actually.
738
2290680
5776
而且我認為
事實上技術本身會退化。
38:28
You look at great civilizations
like Ancient Egypt,
like Ancient Egypt,
739
2296480
2416
我們來看看古埃及文明，
38:30
and they were able to make the pyramids,
740
2298920
1936
從前他們能建金字塔，
38:32
and they forgot how to do that.
741
2300880
1816
但忘了怎麽建。
38:34
And then the Romans,
they built these incredible aqueducts.
they built these incredible aqueducts.
742
2302720
2816
還有古羅馬人造了
令人難以置信的水渠；
令人難以置信的水渠；
38:37
They forgot how to do it.
743
2305560
1200
他們也不記得怎麽造。
38:40
CA: Elon, it almost seems,
listening to you
listening to you
744
2308720
2056
安：伊隆，聼你說起來，似乎……
38:42
and looking at the different
things you've done,
things you've done,
745
2310800
2256
看著你所做的不同的事情，
你對這一切都有獨特的雙重動機，
38:45
that you've got this unique
double motivation on everything
double motivation on everything
746
2313080
2776
38:47
that I find so interesting.
747
2315880
1320
我覺得很有意思。
38:51
One is this desire to work
for humanity's long-term good.
for humanity's long-term good.
748
2319720
4576
一方面是為了全人類的長遠利益，
38:56
The other is the desire
to do something exciting.
to do something exciting.
749
2324320
2336
另一方面是渴望
做一些令人興奮的事情。
做一些令人興奮的事情。
38:58
And often it feels like you feel
like you need the one to drive the other.
like you need the one to drive the other.
750
2326680
4696
彷彿你需要一樣來驅動另一樣。
39:03
With Tesla, you want
to have sustainable energy,
to have sustainable energy,
751
2331400
3096
用特斯拉，因你要有永續能源，
39:06
so you made these super sexy,
exciting cars to do it.
exciting cars to do it.
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所以造出這麽勁爆的車子
來實現你的目標。
來實現你的目標。
39:11
Solar energy, we need to get there,
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而為要實現太陽能，
39:12
so we need to make these beautiful roofs.
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於是需要這些漂亮的屋頂。
我們還沒講到你最新的玩意，
39:14
We haven't even spoken
about your newest thing,
about your newest thing,
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39:17
which we don't have time to do,
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由於時間不夠的關係。
39:18
but you want to save humanity from bad AI,
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但你想把人類從不好的
人工智慧中解救出來。
人工智慧中解救出來。
39:20
and so you're going to create
this really cool brain-machine interface
this really cool brain-machine interface
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所以你打算造出超炫酷的腦機介面
讓人類擁有無限的記憶、
心靈感應等等。
心靈感應等等。
39:24
to give us all infinite memory
and telepathy and so forth.
and telepathy and so forth.
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39:28
And on Mars, it feels
like what you're saying is,
like what you're saying is,
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還有移民火星，就像你所說的，
39:30
yeah, we need to save humanity
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是的，我們要拯救人類。
39:34
and have a backup plan,
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得有個備選計劃。
39:35
but also we need to inspire humanity,
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當然還要激勵人性，
39:39
and this is a way to inspire.
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這也算是一種激勵的方式。
39:45
EM: I think the value
of beauty and inspiration
of beauty and inspiration
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馬：我想美和靈感的價值
39:49
is very much underrated,
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被嚴重低估了，
39:51
no question.
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毫無疑問。
39:53
But I want to be clear.
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但我想釐清一點：
39:54
I'm not trying to be anyone's savior.
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我可不想做任何人的救星。
39:56
That is not the --
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那不是──
39:58
I'm just trying to think about the future
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我只想展望未來
40:02
and not be sad.
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而不傷感。
40:04
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
40:06
CA: Beautiful statement.
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安：說的真好。
40:10
I think everyone here would agree
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我想在場所有人都同意
40:11
that it is not --
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那不──
40:13
None of this is going
to happen inevitably.
to happen inevitably.
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這些都不是必然會發生的。
40:15
The fact that in your mind,
you dream this stuff,
you dream this stuff,
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事實上，在你的心目中的夢想，
40:19
you dream stuff that no one else
would dare dream,
would dare dream,
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夢想著別人想都不敢想的夢想，
40:22
or no one else
would be capable of dreaming
would be capable of dreaming
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或者說沒人有能力想到的夢想，
40:24
at the level of complexity that you do.
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達到如你這般複雜的程度。
40:28
The fact that you do that, Elon Musk,
is a really remarkable thing.
is a really remarkable thing.
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伊隆 • 馬斯克，
你那麼做實在了不起。
你那麼做實在了不起。
40:31
Thank you for helping us all
to dream a bit bigger.
to dream a bit bigger.
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感謝你幫助我們所有人夢想得更大。
40:34
EM: But you'll tell me if it ever
starts getting genuinely insane, right?
starts getting genuinely insane, right?
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馬：如果哪天我真要瘋了，
你會告訴我，對吧？
你會告訴我，對吧？
40:37
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
40:40
CA: Thank you, Elon Musk.
That was really, really fantastic.
That was really, really fantastic.
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安：謝謝伊隆 • 馬斯克，太棒了。
40:43
That was really fantastic.
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這真是太棒了。
40:45
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Elon Musk - Serial entrepreneurElon Musk is the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors and the CEO/CTO of Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX).
Why you should listen
At SpaceX, Musk oversees the development of rockets and spacecraft for missions to Earth orbit and ultimately to other planets. In 2008, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon spacecraft won the NASA contract to provide cargo transport to space. In 2012, SpaceX became the first commercial company to dock with the International Space Station and return cargo to Earth with the Dragon.
At Tesla, Musk has overseen product development and design from the beginning, including the all-electric Tesla Roadster, Model S and Model X, and the rollout of Supercharger stations to keep the cars juiced up. (Some of the charging stations use solar energy systems from SolarCity, of which Musk is the non-executive chair.) Transitioning to a sustainable energy economy, in which electric vehicles play a pivotal role, has been one of his central interests for almost two decades. He co-founded PayPal and served as the company's chair and CEO.
Elon Musk | Speaker | TED.com