Elon Musk: The future we're building -- and boring
Ilon Mask (Elon Musk): Budućnost koju gradimo - i kopamo
Elon Musk is the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors and the CEO/CTO of Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX). Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
Elon, hey, welcome back to TED.
dobro došao opet na TED.
an exciting future might look like,
budućnost mogla da izgleda uzbudljivo,
the first question a little ironic:
malčice ironično:
ispod Los Anđelesa
be a 3D network of tunnels
biti 3D mreža tunela
soul-destroying things is traffic.
nešto najiritantnije.
in every part of the world.
that's been shown of this.
koja je ikad prikazana.
So this is the first time --
Dakle, ovo je prvi put -
that are important
koje su važne
and exit of the tunnel
that's on an elevator,
koji je na liftu,
and exits to the tunnel network
u i iz mreže tunela,
to operate at 200 kilometers an hour.
da ide 200 kilometara na sat.
or about 130 miles per hour.
ili oko 130 milja na sat.
to get from, say, Westwood to LAX
recimo, od Vestvuda do LAX-a
of toll road-type basis.
alleviates some traffic
if people noticed it in the video,
primetili na snimku,
to how many levels of tunnel you can have.
koliko nivoa tunela možete da imate.
than you can go up.
nego što možete u visinu.
than the tallest buildings are tall,
nego što su najviše zgrade visoke,
level of urban congestion
proizvoljni stepen gradskog zakrčenja
is that if you add one layer of tunnels,
je da ako dodate jedan sloj tunela,
it will get used up,
popunilo bi se
back with congestion.
arbitrary number of tunnels,
it's incredibly expensive to dig,
kopanje je izuzetno skupo,
the LA subway extension,
podzemna produžnica u Los Anđelesu,
a two-and-a-half mile extension
četiri kilometra,
for two billion dollars.
za dve milijarde dolara.
to do the subway extension in LA.
po 1,6 km da se napravi podzemna u LA.
utility subway in the world.
to dig tunnels normally.
kopati tunele.
at least a tenfold improvement
bar desetostruki napredak
an order of magnitude improvement,
napredak za red velične,
is to cut the tunnel diameter
je da skratite prečnik tunela
according to regulations
prema propisima,
maybe 28 feet in diameter
and emergency vehicles
i za vozila hitne pomoći,
for combustion engine cars.
sa motorima sa unutrašnjim sagorevanjem.
to what we're attempting,
na ono na šta mi ciljamo,
to get an electric skate through,
da električni nosač prođe,
by a factor of four,
za faktor od četiri,
with the cross-sectional area.
poprečnom preseku.
of magnitude improvement right there.
za pola reda veličine.
for half the time, then they stop,
polovinu vremena, potom se zaustavljaju,
is putting in reinforcements
tunneling and reinforcing,
kopanje i ojačavanje,
a factor of two improvement.
napredak za faktor od dva.
at their power or thermal limits,
granice svoijih termalnih moći,
to the machine substantially.
bar faktor od dva,
at least a factor of two,
improvement on top of that.
straightforward series of steps
prilično direktan niz koraka
of an order of magnitude improvement
od više od jednog reda veličine
from "South Park,"
of going 14 times faster
dreaming about future cities,
sanjaju gradove budućnosti,
the solution is flying cars, drones, etc.
u letećim automobilima, dronovima itd.
so I like things that fly.
te mi se sviđaju stvari koje lete.
against flying things,
protiv letećih stvari,
will be very high.
će da bude veoma velika.
flying over your head,
going all over the place,
koja ide tamo i ovamo,
koja umanjuje anksioznost.
"Well, I feel better about today."
"Pa, danas se osećam bolje."
"Did they service their hubcap,
servisirali radkapnu
and guillotine me?"
3D networks of tunnels underneath.
3D mrežu tunela ispod njih.
to use for this Hyperloop idea
kod ideje sa Hiperlupom
sort of puttering around
adjacent to SpaceX,
blizu Spejs iksa,
ideas in transport.
inovativne ideje u saobraćaju.
the biggest vacuum chamber in the world
najveća vakuumska komora na svetu
but it was kind of a hobby thing,
ali to je bilo nekako poput dokolice,
to push the student pods,
da guraju studentske šasije,
how fast we can make the pusher go
koliko brzi gurači mogu da budu,
than the world's fastest bullet train
superbrzog voza u svetu
into tiny pieces or go quite fast.
ili će da ide prilično brzo.
then, a Hyperloop in a tunnel
Hiperlup u tunelu
in order to make a tunnel,
a tunnel wall to be good
zid tunela da izdrži
je tek pritisak od jedne atmosfere,
that automatically,
da automatski,
to resist the water table,
da odoleva podzemnim vodama,
capable of holding vacuum.
is in Elon's future to running Hyperloop?
kojim saobraća Hiperlup?
stvarno ograničenje dužine.
da idete pod zemljom celim putem
to go underground the entire way
a lot of buildings and houses,
well, it's going to be pretty annoying
biće prilično iritantno,
tunnel diameters beneath your house,
ispod vaše kuće,
to detect it being dug at all.
da detektujete da se uopšte kopa.
to detect the tunnel being dug,
da detektujete kopanje tunela,
for that device from the Israeli military,
gomilu novca za tu spravu,
tunnels from Hamas,
Hamasove tunele,
that try and detect drug tunnels.
koje pokušavaju da otkriju tunele droge.
at absorbing vibrations,
u apsorbovanju vibracija,
is below a certain level,
ispod određenog nivoa,
veoma osetljiv seizmički instrument,
seismic instrument,
a new company to do this
hobby looks like.
and people doing it part time.
i ljudima koji to rade honorarno.
but it's making good progress, so --
ali dobro napreduje, stoga -
cars and transport through Tesla.
automobila i saobraćaja putem Tesle.
for the tunneling project
za projekat tunela
and where they're self-driving,
električni i samoupravljajući,
more cars on the roads
broja automobila na putevima
nego što ih trenutno ima?
that when you make cars autonomous,
autonomne automobile,
and that will alleviate congestion.
i da će to olakšati gužve.
where it's much cheaper to go by car
gde je mnogo jeftinije ići autom
will be better than that of a bus.
će da bude veća od putovanja autobusom.
will be much greater with shared autonomy,
će da bude mnogo veća od zajedničkog auta
with the goal of persuading the world
u cilju ubeđivanja sveta
was the future of cars,
budućnost automobila,
people were laughing at you.
ljudi su ti se smejali.
every auto manufacturer
proizvođači automobila
serious electrification plans
do srednjeročnoj budućnosti?
has some electric vehicle program.
imaju neki program za električna vozila.
about transitioning entirely to electric,
povodom potpunog prelaska na struju,
i dalje na tragu gorivnih ćelija,
are still pursuing fuel cells,
and say, you know, "We did it."
i reći, znaš: "Uspeli smo."
and you go on and focus on other stuff?
da se usredsrediš na druge stvari?
as far into the future as I can imagine,
dokle god mogu da zamislim u budućnosti,
things that we have coming.
stvari koje stižu.
to be coming in July-ish.
da izađe oko jula.
for starting production in July.
da će proizvodnja krenuti u julu.
that people are so excited about
veoma uzbuđeni
would look like.
tehnologija da izgleda.
in Model S right now.
trenutno u modelu S.
only cameras and GPS.
or radar being used here.
which is essentially what a person uses.
a to u suštini ljudi koriste.
is meant to be navigated
da upravljamo
it's not solved.
nemate rešenje.
so heavily on having a vision neural net
na nabavku vizuelne neuronske mreže
are going the LIDAR route.
se odlučuju za LIDAR.
be superhuman with just cameras.
superčovek samo sa kamerama.
ten times better than humans would,
deset puta bolji od ljudi,
have eight cameras in them.
prodaju imaju u sebi osam kamera.
to što je ovde prikazano.
for being able to go cross-country
da uspemo preći državu
of the year, fully autonomous.
u potpunosti samoupravljajući.
of the year, you're saying,
without touching the steering wheel,
bez dodirivanja volana,
by the end of 2017.
da dotakne volan - do kraja 2017.
November or December of this year,
ili decembru ove godine,
from a parking lot in California
ceo put od parkinga u Kaliforniji
during the entire journey.
tokom čitavog putovanja.
of Teslas driving all these roads.
koja se vozi svim tim putevima.
of data of that national road system.
o nacionalnom sistemu puteva.
that will be interesting
it will be able to do that route
da će biti u stanju da pređe tu rutu
at one specific route, that's one thing,
specifičnoj ruti, to je jedna stvar,
really be very good,
da bude veoma dobro,
to LA to New York.
na od LA do Njujorka.
and make it Seattle-Florida,
da ide Sijetl-Florida,
regulation for a second,
po strani propise,
will be able to buy one of your cars
moći da kupi jedan od tvojih auta
off the wheel and go to sleep
is not how do you make it work
nije u tome da funkcioniše,
one in a thousand times,
jednom u hiljadu puta,
to be comfortable falling asleep.
svejedno da zaspite.
or a thousand lifetimes,
if I were to live a thousand lives,
ako bih živeo hiljadu života,
never experience a crash,
ne bih nikad doživeo sudar,
is that people may actually
da bi ljude mogli zapravo
pomisle da je ovo bezbedno,
to think that this is safe,
incident happen that puts things back.
incidenta koji će da odloži sve.
is likely to at least mitigate the crash,
sistem verovatno bar ublažiti sudar,
about vehicle safety
kod bezbednosti vozila
a human driver gets in a car,
kad ljudski vozač uđe u auto,
that is their fault.
kod samoupravljanja
need to be than a person
mora da bude bolje od osobe
da se oslonite na njega?
literally safe hands-off driving,
bezbedna vožnja bez ruku,
u celoj industriji biti ogromna
the whole industry seems massive,
of people being able to buy a car,
ljudi moći da kupe auto,
i potom ga prepuštate
and then you let it go
service to other people,
neku vrstu usluge nalik taksiju,
of your lease of that car,
lizinga za taj auto,
this is what will happen.
to use that car exclusively,
da isključivo vi koristite auto,
only by friends and family,
jedino prijatelji i porodca,
who are rated five star,
koji su ocenjeni sa pet zvezdica,
but not other times.
nekad, a nekad ne.
to announce this in September,
da ovo najaviš u septembru,
anything you could show us today?
št možeš danas da nam pokažeš?
a teaser shot of the truck.
da vam zagolicam maštu.
gde želimo da budemo oprezni
where we want to be cautious
just a little friendly neighborhood truck.
kamion iz komšiluka.
long-range semitruck.
velike nosivosti za velike razdaljine.
the heavy-duty trucking loads.
tereta kamiona velike izdržljivosti.
people do not today think is possible.
smatraju da je nemoguće.
power or it doesn't have enough range,
niti ima dovoljno dometa,
električni kamion
od bilo kog dizel polukamiona.
takmičenje u izdržljivosti,
will tug the diesel semi uphill.
dizel polukamion uz brdo.
And short term, these aren't driverless.
A za sad, nisu samoupravljajući.
that truck drivers want to drive.
koje će kamiondžije želeti da voze.
really fun about this
kod ovoga će da bude
with an electric motor,
momenta sa električnim motorom,
s motorom s unutrašnjim sagorevanjem,
of internal combustion engine car,
that looks like a hill.
koja izgleda kao brdo.
around like a sports car.
kao sportski automobil.
It's, like, single speed.
to be made here somewhere.
i sumnjam da ima srećan kraj,
and I don't know that it ends well,
for the first truck.
za testiranje ovog kamiona.
because you're driving around
and you're in this giant truck.
a u ovom ste džinovskom kamionu.
already driven a prototype?
around the parking lot,
voziti ovaj džinovski kamion
driving this giant truck
OK, from a really badass picture
U redu, sa zaista opake slike
from "Desperate Housewives" or something.
iz "Očajnih domaćica" ili slično.
the picture of the future
in the driveway.
the electric car and the house,
električnog auta i kuće,
stacked up against the side of the house,
poređana uz bočni zid kuće,
od solarnog stakla.
well, admittedly, it's a real fake house.
to je stvarna kobajagi kuća.
basically solar power, the ability to --
u suštini, mogućnost da -
the texture and the color
sort of microlouvers in the glass,
mikrovenecijanere od stakla,
at the roof from street level
krov sa nivoa ulice
behind it or not.
from a helicopter,
to look through and see
da vidite kroz njega i zapazite
a solar cell behind them and some do not.
solarnu ćeliju ispod, a neke nemaju.
that are likely to see a lot of sun,
koje su najizloženije suncu,
super affordable, right?
superpristupačni, zar ne?
than just tiling the roof.
od običnih krovnih cigli?
that the cost of the roof
than the cost of a normal roof
će da košta manje od normalnog krova
the warranty be infinity,
bude do beskonačnosti,
like were just talking rubbish,
kao da pričamo gluposti,
in a couple week's time, I think,
za nekoliko nedelja, mislim,
with two, two initially,
will be introduced early next year.
predstavljena početkom sledeće godine.
could end up having this type of roofing?
na kraju da ima ovaj tip krova?
the time scale here
vremenski okvir
is replaced every 20 to 25 years.
svako 20 do 25 godina krov se menja.
all roofs immediately.
if you say were to fast-forward
ako biste, recimo, premotali,
that does not have solar.
koji nema solarne ćelije.
koji ljudi ne razumeju ovde
that people don't get here
the economics of solar power,
ekonomičnosti solarne energije,
enough sunlight on their roof
dovoljno sunčeve svetlosti na krovu
skoro sve naše potrebe.
power all their needs.
relative to the roof area,
u odnosu na površinu krova,
have enough roof area
imaju dovoljno krovne površine
of lithium-ion batteries,
skoro o suštinskoj sposobnosti.
the core competency.
the world's largest manufacturing plant
najveću na svetu fabriku
of lithium-ion batteries,
litijum-jonskih baterija,
a diamond shape overall,
dijamantski oblik,
it'll look like a giant diamond,
izgledaće poput džinovskog dijamanta,
of batteries a year.
baterija godišnje.
We think probably more, but yeah.
Verujemo i više, ali da.
being produced right now.
CA: You guys put out this video.
KA: Momci, pustite snimak.
without a strobe light.
bez stroboskopa.
about what makes an exciting future
o uzbudljivoj budućnosti
feel guilty about energy.
više ne grize zbog energije.
does it take to get us there?
je potrebno da to ostvarimo?
off this vast fossil fuel thing.
pet do 10 milijardi dolara.
that you can picture that project.
da zamisliš taj projekat.
announce another two this year.
da ove godine najaviš još dve.
and four Gigafactories later this year.
Gigafabrike, kasnije u toku godine.
globalnom tržištu.
about politics, only one.
o politici, samo jedno.
but I do want to ask you this.
ali želim ovo da te pitam.
giving advice to a guy --
savetuješ ovog čoveka -
really believe in climate change,
ne veruje u klimatske promene
who think you shouldn't be doing that.
koji misle da ne bi trebalo to da radiš.
of going around the room
od šetanja prostorijom
every month or two.
svakih mesec-dva dana.
that there are people in the room
ima ljudi u toj prostoriji
of doing something about climate change,
povodom klimatskih promena
and in favor of climate change.
i u ime klimatskih promena.
but at least the words were said.
ali je barem nešto rečeno.
a kind of incredibly ambitious dream
kao neverovatno ambiciozan san,
that were actually reusable.
koje zapravo imaju vešestruku upotrebu.
What are we looking at here?
raketnih akceleratora
very high and fast in space.
at sort of Mach 7 or so,
Mahovog broja 7 ili slično,
the sped-up version.
o ubrzanom snimku.
figured out how to do it,
shvatili kako da to postignete,
what, five or six times?
koliko, pet ili šest puta?
one of the rockets that landed.
u jednoj od raketa koja se prizemljila.
raketni akcelerator
i leteli ponovo njime,
and flew it again,
of an orbital booster
orbitalnog akceleratora
upotrebljivost jedino relevantna,
that reusability is only relevant
to Boeing in-between flights.
to dream of this really ambitious idea
da sanjaš o toj krajnje ambicioznoj ideji
mnoge, mnoge ljude na Mars
pretpostavljam.
this outrageous rocket to do it.
zaprepašćujuću raketu za to.
the scale of this thing.
you can see that's a person.
da spazite osobu pored.
a 40-story skyscraper?
poput 40-ospratnice?
the thrust of the Saturn V moon rocket.
veći od potiska rakete Saturn V.
rocket humanity ever created before.
rakete koju je čovečanstvo ikad napravilo.
EM: Yeah.
IM: Da.
a quarter of a million pounds of thrust,
113 398 kilograma potiska,
of 120 747s, with all engines blazing.
120 boinga 747, s užarenim motorima.
designed to escape Earth's gravity,
da odoli Zemljinoj gravitaciji,
take a fully loaded 747,
a fully loaded 747 with maximum fuel,
krcat 747 sa punim rezervoarom,
maximum cargo on the 747 --
maksimalnim prtljagom na 747 -
da primi kao prtljag.
this Interplanetary Transport System
Međuplanetarni transportni sistem,
30 years time? 20 years time?
za, koliko, 30 godina? 20 godina?
an eight- to 10-year time frame.
otprilike za osam do 10 godina.
are more aggressive, but I think --
su nešto agresivniji, ali mislim -
with other rockets,
budućih kosmičkih brodova
will be truly enormous.
će da budu istinski ogromni.
on it in your lifetime,
u tvom životnom veku,
what you've said you'd love to do?
što si rekao da bi voleo da uradiš?
je inspirativna i privlačna.
da moraju da postoje razlozi
and you want to live.
i želite da živite.
being out there among the stars
nas tamo negde među zvezdama
that we're going to have.
as an either or,
ovo među ili-ili,
happening on the planet now
koje se trenutno dešavaju na planeti,
to, you know, you pick your issue.
do, znaš, izaberi problem.
onim što je ovde i sad.
a fair old bit to actually do that
popriličan udeo u tome,
from the standpoint of probabilities.
s tačke gledišta verovatnoće.
stream of probabilities,
that affect those probabilities
koji utiču na tu verovatnoću
or slow down another thing.
ili usporavaju drugu stvar.
to the probability stream.
u bujicu verovatnoće.
bez obzira na sve.
will happen no matter what.
if Tesla never existed,
da Tesla nikad nije postojala,
it means you have unsustainable energy.
to znači da imate neodrživu energiju.
will drive civilization
of a company like Tesla
the advent of sustainable energy,
dolazak održive energije,
of a company like Tesla,
firme, poput Tesle,
potentially more than a decade,
potencijalno više od decenije,
koja se desila.
aspirational good of Tesla.
species and space-faring civilization.
vrstu i civilizaciju svemirskih putnika.
this is not inevitable.
da to nije neizbežno.
I think is largely inevitable,
mislim da je većim delom neizbežna,
is definitely not inevitable.
definitivno nije neizbežno.
to send somebody to the moon.
da nekoga pošaljete na mesec.
take people to low Earth orbit.
da odvede ljude do niže Zemljine orbite.
could take no one to orbit.
nikog nisu mogle povesti u orbitu.
prosto automatski unapređuje.
just automatically improves.
work very hard to make it better,
veoma vredno radi na njenom unapređenju
by itself degrade, actually.
samoj sebi da se unazadi.
poput drevnog Egipta,
like Ancient Egypt,
they built these incredible aqueducts.
neverovatne akvadukte.
listening to you
dok te slušam
things you've done,
koje si uradio,
double motivation on everything
dvostruku motivaciju za sve,
for humanity's long-term good.
dugoročne dobrobiti čovečanstva.
to do something exciting.
da uradiš nešto uzbudljivo.
like you need the one to drive the other.
da ti je potrebna jedna da pokreće drugu.
to have sustainable energy,
exciting cars to do it.
uzbudljiva auta za to.
about your newest thing,
tvoj najnoviji projekat,
this really cool brain-machine interface
interfejs za mozak i mašinu
and telepathy and so forth.
neograničeno pamćenje i telepatiju itd.
like what you're saying is,
da inspirišemo čovečanstvo,
of beauty and inspiration
lepote i inspiracije
da razmišljam o budućnosti
neće neizbežno desiti.
to happen inevitably.
you dream this stuff,
would dare dream,
ne bi usudio da sanja
would be capable of dreaming
is a really remarkable thing.
je zaista izvanredna stvar.
to dream a bit bigger.
da sanjamo bar malo više.
u nešto krajnje sumanuto, je li tako?
starts getting genuinely insane, right?
That was really, really fantastic.
Bilo je zaista, zaista fantastično.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Elon Musk - Serial entrepreneurElon Musk is the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors and the CEO/CTO of Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX).
Why you should listen
At SpaceX, Musk oversees the development of rockets and spacecraft for missions to Earth orbit and ultimately to other planets. In 2008, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon spacecraft won the NASA contract to provide cargo transport to space. In 2012, SpaceX became the first commercial company to dock with the International Space Station and return cargo to Earth with the Dragon.
At Tesla, Musk has overseen product development and design from the beginning, including the all-electric Tesla Roadster, Model S and Model X, and the rollout of Supercharger stations to keep the cars juiced up. (Some of the charging stations use solar energy systems from SolarCity, of which Musk is the non-executive chair.) Transitioning to a sustainable energy economy, in which electric vehicles play a pivotal role, has been one of his central interests for almost two decades. He co-founded PayPal and served as the company's chair and CEO.
Elon Musk | Speaker | TED.com