TED2017
Elon Musk: The future we're building -- and boring
Elon Musk: Budućnost koju gradimo - i bušimo
Filmed:
Readability: 4.1
16,113,964 views
Elon Musk govori o svojim novim projektima - iskapanju tunela podno Los Angelesa, novitetima iz Tesle i SpaceX-a i o svojoj motivaciji da izgradi budućnost na Marsu u razgovoru s glavnim kuratorom TED-a, Chrisom Andersonom.
Elon Musk - Serial entrepreneur
Elon Musk is the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors and the CEO/CTO of Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX). Full bio
Elon Musk is the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors and the CEO/CTO of Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX). Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Chris Anderson:
Elon, hey, welcome back to TED.
Elon, hey, welcome back to TED.
0
520
3016
Chris Anderson:
Dobrodošao ponovno na TED, Elone.
Dobrodošao ponovno na TED, Elone.
00:15
It's great to have you here.
1
3560
1376
Divno je da si ovdje.
00:16
Elon Musk: Thanks for having me.
2
4960
1576
Elon Musk: Hvala na pozivu.
00:18
CA: So, in the next half hour or so,
3
6560
2856
CA: Idućih pola sata
00:21
we're going to spend some time
4
9440
1816
provest ćemo
00:23
exploring your vision for what
an exciting future might look like,
an exciting future might look like,
5
11280
3896
istražujući tvoju viziju
uzbudljive budućnosti,
uzbudljive budućnosti,
00:27
which I guess makes
the first question a little ironic:
the first question a little ironic:
6
15200
4096
zbog čega je prvo pitanje pomalo ironično:
00:31
Why are you boring?
7
19320
1736
Zašto zabušavaš?
00:33
EM: Yeah.
8
21080
1216
EM: Da.
00:34
I ask myself that frequently.
9
22320
1550
Često se i sam to pitam.
00:39
We're trying to dig a hole under LA,
10
27240
4136
Pokušavamo prokopati rupu
podno Los Angelesa,
podno Los Angelesa,
00:43
and this is to create the beginning
11
31400
3176
kako bismo započeli,
00:46
of what will hopefully
be a 3D network of tunnels
be a 3D network of tunnels
12
34600
4120
nadam se, trodimenzionalnu mrežu tunela
00:51
to alleviate congestion.
13
39520
2216
radi rasterećenja prometa.
00:53
So right now, one of the most
soul-destroying things is traffic.
soul-destroying things is traffic.
14
41760
5536
Promet je trenutno jedna od
najgorih stvari danas.
najgorih stvari danas.
00:59
It affects people
in every part of the world.
in every part of the world.
15
47320
2856
Utječe na ljude diljem svijeta.
01:02
It takes away so much of your life.
16
50200
3816
Oduzima nam toliko vremena.
01:06
It's horrible.
17
54040
1976
To je strašno.
01:08
It's particularly horrible in LA.
18
56040
1616
Posebno je strašno u LA-u.
01:09
(Laughter)
19
57680
2656
(Smijeh)
01:12
CA: I think you've brought with you
20
60360
1936
CA: Mislim da si ponio sa sobom
01:14
the first visualization
that's been shown of this.
that's been shown of this.
21
62320
2455
prvi vizualni prikaz toga.
01:16
Can I show this?
22
64800
1336
Mogu li pokazati?
01:18
EM: Yeah, absolutely.
So this is the first time --
So this is the first time --
23
66160
2696
EM: Naravno. Ovo je prvi put --
01:20
Just to show what we're talking about.
24
68880
1856
Samo da pokažem o čemu govorimo.
01:22
So a couple of key things
that are important
that are important
25
70760
2136
Ovo su neke od od ključnih stvari
01:24
in having a 3D tunnel network.
26
72920
3896
za trodimenzionalnu mrežu tunela.
01:28
First of all, you have to be able
27
76840
1616
Prvo, trebate moći
01:30
to integrate the entrance
and exit of the tunnel
and exit of the tunnel
28
78480
2256
sjediniti ulaz i izlaz iz tunela
01:32
seamlessly into the fabric of the city.
29
80760
2056
besprijekorno s planom grada.
01:34
So by having an elevator,
30
82840
3656
Pomoću dizala,
01:38
sort of a car skate,
that's on an elevator,
that's on an elevator,
31
86520
4776
svojevrsnom platformom
za aute, koja je na dizalu,
za aute, koja je na dizalu,
01:43
you can integrate the entrance
and exits to the tunnel network
and exits to the tunnel network
32
91320
3936
možete sjediniti ulaze i
izlaze s mrežom tunela
izlaze s mrežom tunela
01:47
just by using two parking spaces.
33
95280
2240
koristeći samo dva parkirna mjesta.
01:50
And then the car gets on a skate.
34
98840
2096
Auto onda dolazi na platformu.
01:52
There's no speed limit here,
35
100960
1376
Ovdje nema ograničenja brzine,
01:54
so we're designing this to be able
to operate at 200 kilometers an hour.
to operate at 200 kilometers an hour.
36
102360
5016
pa radimo na tome da može
voziti 200 kilometara na sat.
voziti 200 kilometara na sat.
01:59
CA: How much?
37
107400
1216
CA: Koliko?
02:00
EM: 200 kilometers an hour,
or about 130 miles per hour.
or about 130 miles per hour.
38
108640
3320
EM: 200 kilometara na sat,
odnosno 130 milja na sat.
odnosno 130 milja na sat.
02:04
So you should be able
to get from, say, Westwood to LAX
to get from, say, Westwood to LAX
39
112800
6216
Tako bi putovanje od Westwooda
do Zračne luke Los Angeles
do Zračne luke Los Angeles
02:11
in six minutes -- five, six minutes.
40
119040
2256
trajalo pet do šest minuta.
02:13
(Applause)
41
121320
4336
(Pljesak)
02:17
CA: So possibly, initially done,
42
125680
1576
CA: Znači da bi se to onda
02:19
it's like on a sort
of toll road-type basis.
of toll road-type basis.
43
127280
2296
temeljilo na cestarini.
02:21
EM: Yeah.
44
129600
1216
EM: Tako je.
02:22
CA: Which, I guess,
alleviates some traffic
alleviates some traffic
45
130840
2056
CA: Tako bi se rasteretio i promet
02:24
from the surface streets as well.
46
132920
1696
na cestama.
02:26
EM: So, I don't know
if people noticed it in the video,
if people noticed it in the video,
47
134640
2616
EM: Ne znam jesu li ljudi
primijetili to u videu,
primijetili to u videu,
02:29
but there's no real limit
to how many levels of tunnel you can have.
to how many levels of tunnel you can have.
48
137280
5136
ne postoji pravo ograničenje na to
koliko razina tunela možemo imati.
koliko razina tunela možemo imati.
02:34
You can go much further deep
than you can go up.
than you can go up.
49
142440
2816
Možemo ići mnogo dublje nego
što možemo ići u visinu.
što možemo ići u visinu.
02:37
The deepest mines are much deeper
than the tallest buildings are tall,
than the tallest buildings are tall,
50
145280
4176
Najdublji rudnici su mnogo
dublji od najviših zgrada,
dublji od najviših zgrada,
02:41
so you can alleviate any arbitrary
level of urban congestion
level of urban congestion
51
149480
5256
tako da možemo rasteretiti svaku
proizvoljnu razinu urbane gužve
proizvoljnu razinu urbane gužve
02:46
with a 3D tunnel network.
52
154760
1296
pomoću 3D mreže tunela.
02:48
This is a very important point.
53
156080
1536
To je vrlo bitna stavka.
02:49
So a key rebuttal to the tunnels
is that if you add one layer of tunnels,
is that if you add one layer of tunnels,
54
157640
6376
Glavni argument protiv tunela jest da
ako dodamo jednu razinu tunela,
ako dodamo jednu razinu tunela,
02:56
that will simply alleviate congestion,
it will get used up,
it will get used up,
55
164040
2776
to će samo rasteretiti gužvu
i bit će potpuno iskorišten,
i bit će potpuno iskorišten,
02:58
and then you'll be back where you started,
back with congestion.
back with congestion.
56
166840
3296
a onda ćemo opet biti na početku,
s problemom prometne zagušenosti.
s problemom prometne zagušenosti.
03:02
But you can go to any
arbitrary number of tunnels,
arbitrary number of tunnels,
57
170160
2416
No, možemo ići do bilo kojeg
proizvoljnog broja tunela,
proizvoljnog broja tunela,
03:04
any number of levels.
58
172600
1336
i bilo kojeg broja razina.
03:05
CA: But people -- seen traditionally,
it's incredibly expensive to dig,
it's incredibly expensive to dig,
59
173960
3536
CA: Ljudi su oduvijek iskapanje
smatrali nevjerojatno skupim,
smatrali nevjerojatno skupim,
03:09
and that would block this idea.
60
177520
1776
i to može biti zapreka ovoj ideji.
03:11
EM: Yeah.
61
179320
1696
EM: Da.
03:13
Well, they're right.
62
181040
1216
U pravu su.
03:14
To give you an example,
the LA subway extension,
the LA subway extension,
63
182280
3776
Kao primjer ću vam dati produženje
losanđeleske podzemne željeznice,
losanđeleske podzemne željeznice,
03:18
which is -- I think it's
a two-and-a-half mile extension
a two-and-a-half mile extension
64
186080
3656
mislim da je oko 4 kilometara dugačko
03:21
that was just completed
for two billion dollars.
for two billion dollars.
65
189760
2239
i nedavno dovršeno za
dvije milijarde dolara.
dvije milijarde dolara.
03:24
So it's roughly a billion dollars a mile
to do the subway extension in LA.
to do the subway extension in LA.
66
192023
5393
Znači da jedan i pol km produžene podzemne
u LA-u košta oko milijardu dolara.
u LA-u košta oko milijardu dolara.
03:29
And this is not the highest
utility subway in the world.
utility subway in the world.
67
197440
3976
I k tome se ne radi o najefikasnijoj
podzemnoj na svijetu.
podzemnoj na svijetu.
03:33
So yeah, it's quite difficult
to dig tunnels normally.
to dig tunnels normally.
68
201440
4496
Dakle, istina je da nije
lako kopati tunele.
lako kopati tunele.
03:37
I think we need to have
at least a tenfold improvement
at least a tenfold improvement
69
205960
3176
Mislim da trebamo najmanje
deseterostruko poboljšanje
deseterostruko poboljšanje
03:41
in the cost per mile of tunneling.
70
209160
2320
u trošku po kilometru tunela.
03:44
CA: And how could you achieve that?
71
212160
1680
CA: Kako biste to ostvarili?
03:48
EM: Actually, if you just do two things,
72
216240
2056
EM: Ako napravimo samo dvije stvari,
03:50
you can get to approximately
an order of magnitude improvement,
an order of magnitude improvement,
73
218320
3336
dosegli bismo otprilike
napredak za red veličine,
napredak za red veličine,
03:53
and I think you can go beyond that.
74
221680
2176
a mislim da možemo postići i više od toga.
03:55
So the first thing to do
is to cut the tunnel diameter
is to cut the tunnel diameter
75
223880
4256
Prvo trebamo smanjiti promjer tunela
04:00
by a factor of two or more.
76
228160
1616
za barem polovicu ili više.
04:01
So a single road lane tunnel
according to regulations
according to regulations
77
229800
3976
Tako tunel s jednom trakom,
prema propisima
prema propisima
04:05
has to be 26 feet,
maybe 28 feet in diameter
maybe 28 feet in diameter
78
233800
2856
mora biti promjera 8 ili 8.5 metara
04:08
to allow for crashes
and emergency vehicles
and emergency vehicles
79
236680
3176
kako bi bilo prostora u slučaju nesreće
i za vozila hitne pomoći,
i za vozila hitne pomoći,
04:11
and sufficient ventilation
for combustion engine cars.
for combustion engine cars.
80
239880
4256
kao i za ventilaciju za vozila s motorom
s unutrašnjim sagorijevanjem.
s unutrašnjim sagorijevanjem.
04:16
But if you shrink that diameter
to what we're attempting,
to what we're attempting,
81
244160
3576
Međutim, ako suzite promjer
kako mi namjeravamo,
kako mi namjeravamo,
04:19
which is 12 feet, which is plenty
to get an electric skate through,
to get an electric skate through,
82
247760
3656
a to je 3.6 metara, što je dovoljno za
prolazak električnog nosača,
prolazak električnog nosača,
04:23
you drop the diameter by a factor of two
83
251440
3216
tunel ste prepolovili
04:26
and the cross-sectional area
by a factor of four,
by a factor of four,
84
254680
3896
a prostor poprečnog presjeka
četverostruko umanjili,
četverostruko umanjili,
04:30
and the tunneling cost scales
with the cross-sectional area.
with the cross-sectional area.
85
258600
2856
a cijena kopanja tunela ovisi o
veličini poprečnog presjeka.
veličini poprečnog presjeka.
04:33
So that's roughly a half-order
of magnitude improvement right there.
of magnitude improvement right there.
86
261480
3216
To je otprilike napredak
za pola reda veličine.
za pola reda veličine.
04:36
Then tunneling machines currently tunnel
for half the time, then they stop,
for half the time, then they stop,
87
264720
4896
Strojevi za iskapanje tunela polovicu
vremena rade, a drugu polovicu miruju,
vremena rade, a drugu polovicu miruju,
04:41
and then the rest of the time
is putting in reinforcements
is putting in reinforcements
88
269640
3176
a ostatak vremena radimo na učvršćivanju
04:44
for the tunnel wall.
89
272840
1296
zidova tunela.
04:46
So if you design the machine instead
90
274160
2216
Pa ako umjesto toga stvorite strojeve
04:48
to do continuous
tunneling and reinforcing,
tunneling and reinforcing,
91
276400
2336
koji će neprestano kopati
i učvršćivati tunele,
i učvršćivati tunele,
04:50
that will give you
a factor of two improvement.
a factor of two improvement.
92
278760
2216
to će značiti dupli napredak.
04:53
Combine that and that's a factor of eight.
93
281000
2216
Kad ste to zbroji, dobivamo
osmerostruko poboljšanje.
osmerostruko poboljšanje.
04:55
Also these machines are far from being
at their power or thermal limits,
at their power or thermal limits,
94
283240
4656
Osim toga, ti strojevi još nisu ni blizu
granice svoje toplinske moći,
granice svoje toplinske moći,
04:59
so you can jack up the power
to the machine substantially.
to the machine substantially.
95
287920
3056
pa im možemo značajno povećati snagu.
05:03
I think you can get
at least a factor of two,
at least a factor of two,
96
291000
2136
Mislim da ih barem za polovicu,
05:05
maybe a factor of four or five
improvement on top of that.
improvement on top of that.
97
293160
4176
možda čak i četiri ili pet
puta možemo osnažiti.
puta možemo osnažiti.
05:09
So I think there's a fairly
straightforward series of steps
straightforward series of steps
98
297360
4216
Mislim da imamo vrlo jasan slijed koraka
05:13
to get somewhere in excess
of an order of magnitude improvement
of an order of magnitude improvement
99
301600
2976
kako bismo dosegli više od
jednog reda veličine poboljšanja
jednog reda veličine poboljšanja
05:16
in the cost per mile,
100
304600
1736
cijene po kilometru.
05:18
and our target actually is --
101
306360
2936
Naš je cilj zapravo -
05:21
we've got a pet snail called Gary,
102
309320
2816
imamo ljubimca puža Garyja,
05:24
this is from Gary the snail
from "South Park,"
from "South Park,"
103
312160
2536
prema pužu Garyju iz "South Parka",
05:26
I mean, sorry, "SpongeBob SquarePants."
104
314720
2936
odnosno crtića "Spužva Bob Skockani".
05:29
(Laughter)
105
317680
1576
(Smijeh)
05:31
So Gary is capable of --
106
319280
4416
Gary može
05:35
currently he's capable
of going 14 times faster
of going 14 times faster
107
323720
4096
trenutno može ići 14 puta brže
05:39
than a tunnel-boring machine.
108
327840
1776
od stroja za kopanje tunela.
05:41
(Laughter)
109
329640
2776
(Smijeh)
05:44
CA: You want to beat Gary.
110
332440
1776
CA: Želite pobijediti Garyja.
05:46
EM: We want to beat Gary.
111
334240
1296
EM: Želimo ga pobijediti.
05:47
(Laughter)
112
335560
1536
(Smijeh)
05:49
He's not a patient little fellow,
113
337120
2216
On nije jako strpljiv,
05:51
and that will be victory.
114
339360
3096
i to će biti uspijeh.
05:54
Victory is beating the snail.
115
342480
1400
Pobjeda je preticanje puža.
05:57
CA: But a lot of people imagining,
dreaming about future cities,
dreaming about future cities,
116
345280
3056
CA: Međutim, mnogi ljudi koji
sanjaju o gradovima budućnosti
sanjaju o gradovima budućnosti
06:00
they imagine that actually
the solution is flying cars, drones, etc.
the solution is flying cars, drones, etc.
117
348360
3896
zamišljaju leteće automobile,
dronove i slično.
dronove i slično.
06:04
You go aboveground.
118
352280
2216
Išlo bi se u visinu.
06:06
Why isn't that a better solution?
119
354520
1816
Zašto to nije bolje riješenje?
06:08
You save all that tunneling cost.
120
356360
1976
Toliko bismo uštedjeli
na iskapanju tunela.
na iskapanju tunela.
06:10
EM: Right. I'm in favor of flying things.
121
358360
2216
EM: Ja sam za leteće stvari.
06:12
Obviously, I do rockets,
so I like things that fly.
so I like things that fly.
122
360600
3856
Očigledno volim leteće stvari, s
obzirom da proizvodim rakete.
obzirom da proizvodim rakete.
06:16
This is not some inherent bias
against flying things,
against flying things,
123
364480
2936
Ovdje nije riječ o predrasudi
spram letjelica,
spram letjelica,
06:19
but there is a challenge with flying cars
124
367440
3056
već prostoje određeni izazovi
kod letećih automobila,
kod letećih automobila,
06:22
in that they'll be quite noisy,
125
370520
3296
poput velike buke,
06:25
the wind force generated
will be very high.
will be very high.
126
373840
2560
ili proizvodnje velike snage vjetra.
06:32
Let's just say that if something's
flying over your head,
flying over your head,
127
380000
2696
Samo ću reći to da ako nešto
leti iznad naših glava,
leti iznad naših glava,
06:34
a whole bunch of flying cars
going all over the place,
going all over the place,
128
382720
2560
gomila letećih automobila
koji lete na sve strane,
koji lete na sve strane,
06:38
that is not an anxiety-reducing situation.
129
386440
4616
to sigurno nije umirujuća situacija.
06:43
(Laughter)
130
391080
1320
(Smijeh)
06:45
You don't think to yourself,
"Well, I feel better about today."
"Well, I feel better about today."
131
393200
3560
Nećete pomisliti,
"Baš mi je danas dobar dan."
"Baš mi je danas dobar dan."
06:50
You're thinking,
"Did they service their hubcap,
"Did they service their hubcap,
132
398520
2616
Pomislit ćete,
"Jesu li servisirali ratkape,
"Jesu li servisirali ratkape,
06:53
or is it going to come off
and guillotine me?"
and guillotine me?"
133
401160
2896
ili će otpasti i giljotinirati me?"
06:56
Things like that.
134
404080
1680
Takve stvari.
07:00
CA: So you've got this vision
135
408320
1576
CA: Znači imaš viziju
07:01
of future cities with these rich,
3D networks of tunnels underneath.
3D networks of tunnels underneath.
136
409920
5296
budućih gradova s bogatim
3D mrežama tunela.
3D mrežama tunela.
07:07
Is there a tie-in here with Hyperloop?
137
415240
2016
Ima li tu veza s Hyperloopom?
07:09
Could you apply these tunnels
to use for this Hyperloop idea
to use for this Hyperloop idea
138
417280
3536
Biste li mogli primijeniti te
tunele na ideji Hyperloopa
tunele na ideji Hyperloopa
07:12
you released a few years ago.
139
420840
1381
koju ste predstavili prije par godina?
07:14
EM: Yeah, so we've been
sort of puttering around
sort of puttering around
140
422840
3216
EM:Neko vrijeme smo petljali
07:18
with the Hyperloop stuff for a while.
141
426080
2616
s nacrtima Hyperloopa.
07:20
We built a Hyperloop test track
adjacent to SpaceX,
adjacent to SpaceX,
142
428720
3816
Izgradili smo testnu stazu
za Hyperloop pored SpaceX-a,
za Hyperloop pored SpaceX-a,
07:24
just for a student competition,
143
432560
2136
samo radi natjecanja za studente,
07:26
to encourage innovative
ideas in transport.
ideas in transport.
144
434720
3016
da potaknemo inovativne ideje u prometu.
07:29
And it actually ends up being
the biggest vacuum chamber in the world
the biggest vacuum chamber in the world
145
437760
5016
Na kraju je to ispala najveća
vakuumska komora na svijetu
vakuumska komora na svijetu
07:34
after the Large Hadron Collider,
146
442800
1920
nakon Velikog hadronskog sudarivača,
07:37
by volume.
147
445800
1200
po volumenu.
07:41
So it was quite fun to do that,
but it was kind of a hobby thing,
but it was kind of a hobby thing,
148
449320
5456
Bilo je zabavno to napraviti,
ali to mi je više bio hobi.
ali to mi je više bio hobi.
07:46
and then we think we might --
149
454800
3696
Mislimo da bismo mogli -
07:50
so we've built a little pusher car
to push the student pods,
to push the student pods,
150
458520
4360
Izgradili smo mali auto koji
gura kapsule studenata,
gura kapsule studenata,
07:56
but we're going to try seeing
how fast we can make the pusher go
how fast we can make the pusher go
151
464440
3936
i probat ćemo vidjeti
koliko brzo on može ići
koliko brzo on može ići
08:00
if it's not pushing something.
152
468400
1429
ako ne gura ništa.
08:02
So we're cautiously optimistic
153
470720
2336
Oprezno smo optimistični
08:05
we'll be able to be faster
than the world's fastest bullet train
than the world's fastest bullet train
154
473080
5016
da ćemo moći putovati brže
od najbržeg supervlaka
od najbržeg supervlaka
08:10
even in a .8-mile stretch.
155
478120
2256
čak i u rasponu od 1.3 kilometra.
08:12
CA: Whoa. Good brakes.
156
480400
2536
CA: Opa, dobre kočnice.
08:14
EM: Yeah, I mean, it's -- yeah.
157
482960
2256
EM: Da. Mislim, da će -- da.
08:17
It's either going to smash
into tiny pieces or go quite fast.
into tiny pieces or go quite fast.
158
485240
4616
Ili će se raspasti na komadiće
ili će ići vrlo brzo.
ili će ići vrlo brzo.
08:21
CA: But you can picture,
then, a Hyperloop in a tunnel
then, a Hyperloop in a tunnel
159
489880
3576
CA: Možemo zamisliti Hyperloop u tunelu
08:25
running quite long distances.
160
493480
1816
kako prelazi velike razdaljine.
08:27
EM: Exactly.
161
495320
1696
EM: Upravo tako.
08:29
And looking at tunneling technology,
162
497040
1776
Promatrajući tehnologiju tunela,
08:30
it turns out that
in order to make a tunnel,
in order to make a tunnel,
163
498840
2536
ispada da, kako bi se napravio tunel,
08:33
you have to --
164
501400
1200
trebate --
08:36
In order to seal against the water table,
165
504320
2376
Kako biste se osigurali
od podzemnih voda,
od podzemnih voda,
08:38
you've got to typically design
a tunnel wall to be good
a tunnel wall to be good
166
506720
4656
trebate sagraditi zid koji može izdržati
08:43
to about five or six atmospheres.
167
511400
2320
pritisak od oko pet ili šest atmosfera.
08:47
So to go to vacuum is only one atmosphere,
168
515159
3017
Uvođenje vakuuma je
samo jedna atmosfera,
samo jedna atmosfera,
08:50
or near-vacuum.
169
518200
1416
ili stanje blizu vakuuma.
08:51
So actually, it sort of turns out
that automatically,
that automatically,
170
519640
4416
Ispada da zapravo automatski,
08:56
if you build a tunnel that is good enough
to resist the water table,
to resist the water table,
171
524080
3976
ako izgradimo tunel koji je dovoljno
osiguran od podzemnih voda,
osiguran od podzemnih voda,
09:00
it is automatically
capable of holding vacuum.
capable of holding vacuum.
172
528080
2416
onda je on automatski
sposoban zadržavati vakuum.
sposoban zadržavati vakuum.
09:02
CA: Huh.
173
530520
1616
CA: Hm.
09:04
EM: So, yeah.
174
532160
1536
EM: Da.
09:05
CA: And so you could actually picture,
175
533720
1856
CA: Možeš li zamisliti
09:07
what kind of length tunnel
is in Elon's future to running Hyperloop?
is in Elon's future to running Hyperloop?
176
535600
5696
koliko bi bio dugačak tvoj tunel koji
funkcionira po principu Hyperloopa?
funkcionira po principu Hyperloopa?
09:13
EM: I think there's no real length limit.
177
541320
3216
EM: Mislim da nema granice u dužini.
09:16
You could dig as much as you want.
178
544560
3016
Možete kopati koliko god želite.
09:19
I think if you were to do something
179
547600
2216
Mislim da, kada biste napravili nešto
09:21
like a DC-to-New York Hyperloop,
180
549840
5176
poput Hyperloopa između
Washingtona i New Yorka,
Washingtona i New Yorka,
09:27
I think you'd probably want
to go underground the entire way
to go underground the entire way
181
555040
2856
mislim da biste željeli da to bude
cijelom dužinom pod zemljom
cijelom dužinom pod zemljom
09:29
because it's a high-density area.
182
557920
1616
jer se radi o gusto naseljenom području.
09:31
You're going under
a lot of buildings and houses,
a lot of buildings and houses,
183
559560
4056
Idete ispod mnogo zgrada i kuća,
09:35
and if you go deep enough,
184
563640
1536
i ako idete dovoljno duboko,
09:37
you cannot detect the tunnel.
185
565200
2376
ne možete primijetiti tunel.
09:39
Sometimes people think,
well, it's going to be pretty annoying
well, it's going to be pretty annoying
186
567600
2936
Ljudi ponekad misle, "Bit će koma
09:42
to have a tunnel dug under my house.
187
570560
1856
kada će mi kopati tunel ispod kuće."
09:44
Like, if that tunnel is dug
188
572440
1336
Ako taj tunel kopate
09:45
more than about three or four
tunnel diameters beneath your house,
tunnel diameters beneath your house,
189
573800
3176
više od tri ili četiri promjera
tunela ispod kuće,
tunela ispod kuće,
09:49
you will not be able
to detect it being dug at all.
to detect it being dug at all.
190
577000
2880
uopće nećete primijetiti da se kopa.
09:52
In fact, if you're able
to detect the tunnel being dug,
to detect the tunnel being dug,
191
580880
6696
Zapravo, ako to uspijete primijetiti,
09:59
whatever device you are using,
192
587600
1616
koji god da uređaj koristite,
10:01
you can get a lot of money
for that device from the Israeli military,
for that device from the Israeli military,
193
589240
3266
možete dobiti jako puno novaca
od izraelske vojske za taj uređaj,
od izraelske vojske za taj uređaj,
10:04
who is trying to detect
tunnels from Hamas,
tunnels from Hamas,
194
592530
2796
jer pokušava otkriti Hamasove tunele,
10:07
and from the US Customs and Border patrol
that try and detect drug tunnels.
that try and detect drug tunnels.
195
595636
4780
kao i od Američke agencije za carinu i
zaštitu granice koja traži tunele droge.
zaštitu granice koja traži tunele droge.
10:12
So the reality is
196
600440
3216
Dakle, u stvarnosti
10:15
that earth is incredibly good
at absorbing vibrations,
at absorbing vibrations,
197
603680
3856
zemlja odlično upija vibracije,
10:19
and once the tunnel depth
is below a certain level,
is below a certain level,
198
607560
2976
i kada je dubina tunela
ispod određene razine,
ispod određene razine,
10:22
it is undetectable.
199
610560
1976
tunel onda je neprimjetan.
10:24
Maybe if you have a very sensitive
seismic instrument,
seismic instrument,
200
612560
2576
Možda ako imate vrlo
osjetljiv seizmički instrument,
osjetljiv seizmički instrument,
10:27
you might be able to detect it.
201
615160
1480
onda ćete ga moći detektirati.
10:29
CA: So you've started
a new company to do this
a new company to do this
202
617280
2376
CA: Osnovao si novu
tvrtku koja se time bavi
tvrtku koja se time bavi
10:31
called The Boring Company.
203
619680
1696
duhovito nazvanu The Boring Company.
10:33
Very nice. Very funny.
204
621400
1936
(boring na eng. "bušenje" i "dosadan")
10:35
(Laughter)
205
623360
1376
(Smijeh)
10:36
EM: What's funny about that?
206
624760
1496
EM: Što je tu tako smiješno?
10:38
(Laughter)
207
626280
2616
(Smijeh)
10:40
CA: How much of your time is this?
208
628920
1920
CA: Koliko ti to vremena oduzima?
10:43
EM: It's maybe ...
209
631600
3120
EM: Možda...
10:47
two or three percent.
210
635680
1200
dva ili tri posto.
10:49
CA: You've bought a hobby.
211
637440
1296
CA: Kupio si hobi.
10:50
This is what an Elon Musk
hobby looks like.
hobby looks like.
212
638760
2736
Ovako izgleda hobi Elona Muska.
10:53
(Laughter)
213
641520
1016
(Smijeh)
10:54
EM: I mean, it really is, like --
214
642560
2456
EM: Zaista je kao --
10:57
This is basically interns
and people doing it part time.
and people doing it part time.
215
645040
4880
Time se zapravo bave pripravnici
i honorarni radnici.
i honorarni radnici.
11:03
We bought some second-hand machinery.
216
651320
4696
Kupili smo rabljenu mašineriju.
11:08
It's kind of puttering along,
but it's making good progress, so --
but it's making good progress, so --
217
656040
3120
Malo petljamo s time,
ali dobro napredujemo.
ali dobro napredujemo.
11:12
CA: So an even bigger part of your time
218
660000
1896
CA: Veći dio tvog vremena
11:13
is being spent on electrifying
cars and transport through Tesla.
cars and transport through Tesla.
219
661920
4280
otpada na elektrificiranje
auta i prometa kroz Teslu.
auta i prometa kroz Teslu.
11:19
Is one of the motivations
for the tunneling project
for the tunneling project
220
667440
2576
Je li jedan od motiva za projekt tunela
11:22
the realization that actually,
221
670040
2536
shvaćanje da zapravo
11:24
in a world where cars are electric
and where they're self-driving,
and where they're self-driving,
222
672600
3416
u svijetu u kojem su automobili
električni i samoupravljajući,
električni i samoupravljajući,
11:28
there may end up being
more cars on the roads
more cars on the roads
223
676040
3536
možda će doći do još većeg
broja automobila na cestama
broja automobila na cestama
11:31
on any given hour than there are now?
224
679600
2376
nego što ih trenutno ima?
11:34
EM: Yeah, exactly.
225
682000
1920
EM: Upravo tako.
11:38
A lot of people think
that when you make cars autonomous,
that when you make cars autonomous,
226
686040
4296
Mnogi misle da kada napravite
autonomne automobile,
autonomne automobile,
11:42
they'll be able to go faster
and that will alleviate congestion.
and that will alleviate congestion.
227
690360
4616
da će moći voziti brže i tako
riješiti problem prometnih gužvi.
riješiti problem prometnih gužvi.
11:47
And to some degree that will be true,
228
695000
1896
To će donekle i biti tako,
11:48
but once you have shared autonomy
where it's much cheaper to go by car
where it's much cheaper to go by car
229
696920
5056
ali čim imate zajedničku autonomiju,
mnogo je jeftinije ići automobilom
mnogo je jeftinije ići automobilom
11:54
and you can go point to point,
230
702000
1440
i možete ići od točke do točke.
11:56
the affordability of going in a car
will be better than that of a bus.
will be better than that of a bus.
231
704960
5136
Pristupačnost putovanja autom
bit će veća od putovanja autobusom.
bit će veća od putovanja autobusom.
12:02
Like, it will cost less than a bus ticket.
232
710120
2216
Manje će koštati od karte za autobus.
12:04
So the amount of driving that will occur
will be much greater with shared autonomy,
will be much greater with shared autonomy,
233
712360
5056
Dakle, zajednička autonomija
utjecat će na porast vožnje,
utjecat će na porast vožnje,
12:09
and actually traffic will get far worse.
234
717440
2856
i promet će se pogoršati.
12:12
CA: You started Tesla
with the goal of persuading the world
with the goal of persuading the world
235
720320
4256
CA: Osnovao si Teslu
kako bi uvjerio svijet
kako bi uvjerio svijet
12:16
that electrification
was the future of cars,
was the future of cars,
236
724600
3136
da je elektrifikacija budućnost automobila
12:19
and a few years ago,
people were laughing at you.
people were laughing at you.
237
727760
2376
i do prije par godina ljudi su ti se smijali.
12:22
Now, not so much.
238
730160
2456
Sada se baš i ne smiju.
12:24
EM: OK.
239
732640
1216
EM: Ok.
12:25
(Laughter)
240
733880
1936
(Smijeh)
12:27
I don't know. I don't know.
241
735840
2216
Ne znam.
12:30
CA: But isn't it true that pretty much
every auto manufacturer
every auto manufacturer
242
738080
3416
CA: Nije li istina da je gotovo
svaki proizvođač automobila
svaki proizvođač automobila
12:33
has announced
serious electrification plans
serious electrification plans
243
741520
3016
najavio ozbiljne planove elektrifikacije
12:36
for the short- to medium-term future?
244
744560
2640
za kratkoročnu tj. srednjoročnu budućnost?
12:40
EM: Yeah. Yeah.
245
748000
1200
EM: Tako je.
12:43
I think almost every automaker
has some electric vehicle program.
has some electric vehicle program.
246
751280
4976
Mislim da svaki proizvođač auta ima
neki program za elektrifikaciju vozila.
neki program za elektrifikaciju vozila.
12:48
They vary in seriousness.
247
756280
1256
Njihova ozbiljnost varira.
12:49
Some are very serious
about transitioning entirely to electric,
about transitioning entirely to electric,
248
757560
4296
Neki vrlo ozbiljno planiraju potpuno
prijeći na električnu struju,
prijeći na električnu struju,
12:53
and some are just dabbling in it.
249
761880
2360
dok se drugi samo površno time bave.
12:57
And some, amazingly,
are still pursuing fuel cells,
are still pursuing fuel cells,
250
765280
2416
Neki, za divno čudo, još
zagovaraju gorive ćelije,
zagovaraju gorive ćelije,
12:59
but I think that won't last much longer.
251
767720
2136
ali mislim da to neće još dugo trajati.
13:01
CA: But isn't there a sense, though, Elon,
252
769880
2056
CA: No, nije li istina da
13:03
where you can now just declare victory
and say, you know, "We did it."
and say, you know, "We did it."
253
771960
3696
sada možeš proglasiti
pobjedu i reći "Uspjeli smo."
pobjedu i reći "Uspjeli smo."
13:07
Let the world electrify,
and you go on and focus on other stuff?
and you go on and focus on other stuff?
254
775680
4080
Neka se svijet elektrificira, a ti se
kreneš baviti drugim stvarima?
kreneš baviti drugim stvarima?
13:13
EM: Yeah.
255
781520
1200
EM: Da.
13:16
I intend to stay with Tesla
as far into the future as I can imagine,
as far into the future as I can imagine,
256
784320
4576
Namjeravam ostati u Tesli
dokle god se mogu tamo zamisliti,
dokle god se mogu tamo zamisliti,
13:20
and there are a lot of exciting
things that we have coming.
things that we have coming.
257
788920
4656
a radimo na mnogim uzbudljivim stvarima.
13:25
Obviously the Model 3 is coming soon.
258
793600
2176
Uskoro izlazi Model 3.
13:27
We'll be unveiling the Tesla Semi truck.
259
795800
3400
Prikazat ćemo i Teslin tegljač.
13:32
CA: OK, we're going to come to this.
260
800120
1936
CA: Doći ćemo i na to.
13:34
So Model 3, it's supposed
to be coming in July-ish.
to be coming in July-ish.
261
802080
4976
Znači, Model 3 bi trebao izaći u srpnju?
13:39
EM: Yeah, it's looking quite good
for starting production in July.
for starting production in July.
262
807080
4536
EM: Da, dobri su izgledi za
početak proizvodnje u srpnju.
početak proizvodnje u srpnju.
13:43
CA: Wow.
263
811640
1376
CA: Opa.
13:45
One of the things
that people are so excited about
that people are so excited about
264
813040
2376
Jedan od razloga zašto
su ljudi toliko uzbuđeni
su ljudi toliko uzbuđeni
13:47
is the fact that it's got autopilot.
265
815440
3216
jest činjenica da ima autopilot.
13:50
And you put out this video a while back
266
818680
2336
Objavio si ovaj video prije nekog vremena
13:53
showing what that technology
would look like.
would look like.
267
821040
5336
pokazujući kako će
ta tehnologija izgledati.
ta tehnologija izgledati.
13:58
EM: Yeah.
268
826400
1216
EM: Da.
13:59
There's obviously autopilot
in Model S right now.
in Model S right now.
269
827640
2456
CA: Očigledno, Model S već sada ima autopilot.
14:02
What are we seeing here?
270
830120
1416
Što sada gledamo?
14:03
EM: Yeah, so this is using
only cameras and GPS.
only cameras and GPS.
271
831560
6016
EM: Ovdje se koriste samo kamera i GPS.
14:09
So there's no LIDAR
or radar being used here.
or radar being used here.
272
837600
2496
Ne koristi se ni LIDAR niti radar.
14:12
This is just using passive optical,
which is essentially what a person uses.
which is essentially what a person uses.
273
840120
4040
Koristi se samo pasivna optika,
što zapravo i čovjek koristi.
što zapravo i čovjek koristi.
14:17
The whole road system
is meant to be navigated
is meant to be navigated
274
845200
2496
Cijelim cestovnim sustavom kretalo bi se
14:19
with passive optical, or cameras,
275
847720
4056
uz pomoć pasivne optike ili kamera,
14:23
and so once you solve cameras
276
851800
3336
i kada riješite problem kamera
14:27
or vision,
277
855160
1240
ili vida,
14:29
then autonomy is solved.
278
857720
1496
riješili ste samoupravljanje.
14:31
If you don't solve vision,
it's not solved.
it's not solved.
279
859240
2280
Ako ne riješite problem vida,
niste ni samoupravljanje.
niste ni samoupravljanje.
14:34
So that's why our focus is
so heavily on having a vision neural net
so heavily on having a vision neural net
280
862120
6016
Zato se toliko fokusiramo na
vizualnu neuronsku mrežu
vizualnu neuronsku mrežu
14:40
that's very effective for road conditions.
281
868160
3216
koja je jako efikasna
kod uvjeta na cesti.
kod uvjeta na cesti.
14:43
CA: Right. Many other people
are going the LIDAR route.
are going the LIDAR route.
282
871400
2616
CA: Dobro. Mnogi radije
koriste LIDAR kao rješenje.
koriste LIDAR kao rješenje.
14:46
You want cameras plus radar is most of it.
283
874040
2856
Ti želiš samo kamere i radar.
14:48
EM: You can absolutely
be superhuman with just cameras.
be superhuman with just cameras.
284
876920
3376
EM: Apsolutno je moguće biti
superčovjek samo s kamerama.
superčovjek samo s kamerama.
14:52
Like, you can probably do it
ten times better than humans would,
ten times better than humans would,
285
880320
3016
Vjerojatno bi funkcionirao deset
puta bolje od običnih ljudi,
puta bolje od običnih ljudi,
14:55
just cameras.
286
883360
1256
samo uz pomoć kamera.
14:56
CA: So the new cars being sold right now
have eight cameras in them.
have eight cameras in them.
287
884640
4456
CA: Novi auti koji su u prodaji
imaju osam kamera.
imaju osam kamera.
15:01
They can't yet do what that showed.
288
889120
4336
Još ne mogu raditi ono što smo vidjeli.
15:05
When will they be able to?
289
893480
1640
Kada će to moći raditi?
15:08
EM: I think we're still on track
for being able to go cross-country
for being able to go cross-country
290
896440
5736
EM: Mislim da smo na dobrom putu
da prijeđemo preko cijele zemlje
da prijeđemo preko cijele zemlje
15:14
from LA to New York by the end
of the year, fully autonomous.
of the year, fully autonomous.
291
902200
4176
od LA-a do New Yorka do kraja godine,
potpuno autonomno.
potpuno autonomno.
15:18
CA: OK, so by the end
of the year, you're saying,
of the year, you're saying,
292
906400
3776
CA: Znači, tvrdiš da će do kraja godine
15:22
someone's going to sit in a Tesla
without touching the steering wheel,
without touching the steering wheel,
293
910200
3976
netko sjesti u Teslu da ne dirne volan,
15:26
tap in "New York," off it goes.
294
914200
2496
utipkati "New York" i samo krenuti.
15:28
EM: Yeah.
295
916720
1216
EM: Da.
15:29
CA: Won't ever have to touch the wheel --
by the end of 2017.
by the end of 2017.
296
917960
3200
CA: Neće uopće trebati dirati
volan, do kraja 2017. godine.
volan, do kraja 2017. godine.
15:34
EM: Yeah. Essentially,
November or December of this year,
November or December of this year,
297
922280
4616
EM: Da. U suštini, do studenog
ili prosinca ove godine,
ili prosinca ove godine,
15:38
we should be able to go all the way
from a parking lot in California
from a parking lot in California
298
926920
4416
trebali bismo moći prijeći cijeli
put od parkirališta u Kaliforniji
put od parkirališta u Kaliforniji
15:43
to a parking lot in New York,
299
931360
1656
do parkirališta u New Yorku,
15:45
no controls touched at any point
during the entire journey.
during the entire journey.
300
933040
2840
bez manualnog upravljanja
tijekom cijelog puta.
tijekom cijelog puta.
15:48
(Applause)
301
936800
2016
(Pljesak)
15:50
CA: Amazing.
302
938840
1216
CA: Čudesno.
15:52
But part of that is possible
303
940080
1416
No, ovo je djelomično već moguće
15:53
because you've already got a fleet
of Teslas driving all these roads.
of Teslas driving all these roads.
304
941520
3416
jer već imate cijelu flotu
Tesli koje voze po cestama.
Tesli koje voze po cestama.
15:56
You're accumulating a huge amount
of data of that national road system.
of data of that national road system.
305
944960
4800
Prikupljate goleme količine podataka
nacionalnog cestovnog sustava.
nacionalnog cestovnog sustava.
16:03
EM: Yes, but the thing
that will be interesting
that will be interesting
306
951440
2656
EM: Da, no ono što će biti zanimljivo
16:06
is that I'm actually fairly confident
it will be able to do that route
it will be able to do that route
307
954120
5080
jest to što će sigurno
moći prijeći tu rutu
moći prijeći tu rutu
16:12
even if you change the route dynamically.
308
960960
3240
čak i ako je dinamički mijenjate.
16:16
So, it's fairly easy --
309
964840
2400
Dakle, prilično je jednostavno --
16:20
If you say I'm going to be really good
at one specific route, that's one thing,
at one specific route, that's one thing,
310
968040
3736
Ako kažete da će mi dobro ići
na jednoj ruti, to je jedna stvar,
na jednoj ruti, to je jedna stvar,
16:23
but it should be able to go,
really be very good,
really be very good,
311
971800
5136
ali trebalo bi dobro funkcionirati
16:28
certainly once you enter a highway,
312
976960
1736
čim se uključite na autocestu,
16:30
to go anywhere on the highway system
313
978720
2776
kako biste se nesmetano
kretali po autocestama
kretali po autocestama
16:33
in a given country.
314
981520
1240
u navedenoj zemlji.
16:36
So it's not sort of limited
to LA to New York.
to LA to New York.
315
984040
2296
Nije ograničeno samo na
put od LA-a do New Yorka.
put od LA-a do New Yorka.
16:38
We could change it
and make it Seattle-Florida,
and make it Seattle-Florida,
316
986360
3456
Možemo promijeniti put u
rutu od Seattlea do Floride,
rutu od Seattlea do Floride,
16:41
that day, in real time.
317
989840
2536
taj isti dan, u stvarnom vremenu.
16:44
So you were going from LA to New York.
318
992400
2136
Znači krenuli ste iz LA-a prema New Yorku.
16:46
Now go from LA to Toronto.
319
994560
2720
Onda idete od LA-a u Toronto.
16:50
CA: So leaving aside
regulation for a second,
regulation for a second,
320
998320
2736
CA: Ako stavimo na stranu regulaciju,
16:53
in terms of the technology alone,
321
1001080
2776
i samo govorimo o tehnologiji,
16:55
the time when someone
will be able to buy one of your cars
will be able to buy one of your cars
322
1003880
3816
kada će osoba moći kupiti tvoj automobil
16:59
and literally just take the hands
off the wheel and go to sleep
off the wheel and go to sleep
323
1007720
3816
i zaspati doslovno ni ne dodirnuvši volan
17:03
and wake up and find that they've arrived,
324
1011560
2056
a zatim se probuditi na odredištu,
17:05
how far away is that, to do that safely?
325
1013640
1936
koliko treba vremena
da to postane moguće?
da to postane moguće?
17:07
EM: I think that's about two years.
326
1015600
2256
EM: Oko dvije godine.
17:09
So the real trick of it
is not how do you make it work
is not how do you make it work
327
1017880
3376
Pravi problem nije kako da
to napravimo da funkcionira
to napravimo da funkcionira
17:13
say 99.9 percent of the time,
328
1021280
2935
u 99.9 posto slučajeva,
17:16
because, like, if a car crashes
one in a thousand times,
one in a thousand times,
329
1024240
4096
jer ako se pokvari jedan
od tisuću automobila,
od tisuću automobila,
17:20
then you're probably still not going
to be comfortable falling asleep.
to be comfortable falling asleep.
330
1028359
3977
još uvijek vam neće biti ugodna
pomisao da zaspite u njemu.
pomisao da zaspite u njemu.
17:27
You shouldn't be, certainly.
331
1035520
1520
Ne bi vam trebala biti ugodna.
17:29
(Laughter)
332
1037080
1460
(Smijeh)
17:32
It's never going to be perfect.
333
1040040
2895
Nikada neće biti savršeno.
17:34
No system is going to be perfect,
334
1042960
1735
Nijedan sustav neće biti savršen,
17:36
but if you say it's perhaps --
335
1044720
1599
ali ako kažete da možda --
17:40
the car is unlikely to crash
336
1048520
2416
da su mali izgledi za sudar
17:42
in a hundred lifetimes,
or a thousand lifetimes,
or a thousand lifetimes,
337
1050960
3456
u stotinu ili tisuću života,
17:46
then people are like, OK, wow,
if I were to live a thousand lives,
if I were to live a thousand lives,
338
1054440
3896
onda ljudi reagiraju pozitivno,
kao "Da živim tisuću života,
kao "Da živim tisuću života,
17:50
I would still most likely
never experience a crash,
never experience a crash,
339
1058360
2616
vjerojatno ni onda ne bih doživi sudar,
17:53
then that's probably OK.
340
1061000
1376
i to je zasigurno u redu."
17:54
CA: To sleep.
341
1062400
1216
CA: Zaspati u autu.
17:55
I guess the big concern of yours
is that people may actually
is that people may actually
342
1063640
2856
Pretpostavljam da te brine
pomisao da se ljudi prerano
pomisao da se ljudi prerano
17:58
get seduced too early
to think that this is safe,
to think that this is safe,
343
1066520
2296
zavedu mišlju kako je to sigurno,
18:00
and that you'll have some horrible
incident happen that puts things back.
incident happen that puts things back.
344
1068830
4546
i da će se dogoditi neki užasan
incident koji će unazaditi sve ovo.
incident koji će unazaditi sve ovo.
18:05
EM: Well, I think that the autonomy system
is likely to at least mitigate the crash,
is likely to at least mitigate the crash,
345
1073400
6016
EM: Mislim da će autonomni
sustav barem umanjiti sudar,
sustav barem umanjiti sudar,
18:11
except in rare circumstances.
346
1079440
1480
osim u rijetkim slučajevima.
18:14
The thing to appreciate
about vehicle safety
about vehicle safety
347
1082280
2296
Ono što treba cijeniti
kod sigurnosti vozila
kod sigurnosti vozila
18:16
is this is probabilistic.
348
1084600
3400
jest to da se temelji na vjerojatnosti.
18:20
I mean, there's some chance that any time
a human driver gets in a car,
a human driver gets in a car,
349
1088920
3456
Postoji vjerojatnost da kada
god čovjek uđe u automobil,
god čovjek uđe u automobil,
18:24
that they will have an accident
that is their fault.
that is their fault.
350
1092400
2936
vlastitom krivicom izazove nesreću.
18:27
It's never zero.
351
1095360
1320
Ne postoji sto postotna sigurnost.
18:29
So really the key threshold for autonomy
352
1097440
4376
Ključni prag za autonomiju je
18:33
is how much better does autonomy
need to be than a person
need to be than a person
353
1101840
4416
koliko zapravo autonomni sustav
mora biti bolji od čovjeka
mora biti bolji od čovjeka
18:38
before you can rely on it?
354
1106280
1376
da bi bio pouzdan?
18:39
CA: But once you get
literally safe hands-off driving,
literally safe hands-off driving,
355
1107680
3416
CA: No jednom kada
dobijete vožnju bez ruku,
dobijete vožnju bez ruku,
18:43
the power to disrupt
the whole industry seems massive,
the whole industry seems massive,
356
1111120
2816
moć da se uruši cijela
industrija je golema,
industrija je golema,
18:45
because at that point you've spoken
of people being able to buy a car,
of people being able to buy a car,
357
1113960
4376
jer si rekao da ćemo moći kupiti auto,
18:50
drops you off at work,
and then you let it go
and then you let it go
358
1118360
2136
koji će nas dovesti na posao,
a onda ćemo ga poslati dalje
a onda ćemo ga poslati dalje
18:52
and provide a sort of Uber-like
service to other people,
service to other people,
359
1120520
3976
i omogućiti drugima uslugu poput Ubera,
18:56
earn you money,
360
1124520
1216
pritom zaraditi novac,
18:57
maybe even cover the cost
of your lease of that car,
of your lease of that car,
361
1125760
2456
možda i pokriti troškove
leasinga za auto,
leasinga za auto,
19:00
so you can kind of get a car for free.
362
1128240
1856
pa tako gotovo da možete
besplatno nabaviti auto.
besplatno nabaviti auto.
19:02
Is that really likely?
363
1130120
1256
Je li to zaista moguće?
19:03
EM: Yeah. Absolutely
this is what will happen.
this is what will happen.
364
1131400
2856
EM: Da. Ovo će se apsolutno dogoditi.
19:06
So there will be a shared autonomy fleet
365
1134280
1976
Postojat će zajednička autonomna flota
19:08
where you buy your car
366
1136280
1256
gdje ćete kupiti auto
19:09
and you can choose
to use that car exclusively,
to use that car exclusively,
367
1137560
3416
i birati da ga samo vi vozite,
19:13
you could choose to have it be used
only by friends and family,
only by friends and family,
368
1141000
3696
ili ćete dozvoliti da ga koriste
samo vaša obitelj i prijatelji,
samo vaša obitelj i prijatelji,
19:16
only by other drivers
who are rated five star,
who are rated five star,
369
1144720
5056
ili samo drugi vozači
ocjenjeni s pet zvijezdica,
ocjenjeni s pet zvijezdica,
19:21
you can choose to share it sometimes
but not other times.
but not other times.
370
1149800
4880
možete odlučiti kada
ga želite i ne želite dijeliti.
ga želite i ne želite dijeliti.
19:28
That's 100 percent what will occur.
371
1156120
3296
To će se sto posto dogoditi.
19:31
It's just a question of when.
372
1159440
1381
Samo je pitanje vremena.
19:33
CA: Wow.
373
1161960
1216
CA: Opa.
19:35
So you mentioned the Semi
374
1163200
2216
Spomenuo si tegljač
19:37
and I think you're planning
to announce this in September,
to announce this in September,
375
1165440
2736
i mislim da ga planiraš najaviti u rujnu,
19:40
but I'm curious whether there's
anything you could show us today?
anything you could show us today?
376
1168200
3096
ali me zanima ako nam
možeš pokazati išta danas?
možeš pokazati išta danas?
19:43
EM: I will show you
a teaser shot of the truck.
a teaser shot of the truck.
377
1171320
3856
EM: Pokazat ću vam sliku kamiona
samo da vam zagolicam maštu.
samo da vam zagolicam maštu.
19:47
(Laughter)
378
1175200
2496
(Smijeh)
19:49
It's alive.
379
1177720
1936
Živ je.
19:51
CA: OK.
380
1179680
1216
CA: Ok.
19:52
EM: That's definitely a case
where we want to be cautious
where we want to be cautious
381
1180920
2696
EM: Ovdje zaista želimo biti oprezni
19:55
about the autonomy features.
382
1183640
1334
s mogućnostima autonomije.
19:58
Yeah.
383
1186360
1216
Da.
19:59
(Laughter)
384
1187600
1616
(Smijeh)
20:01
CA: We can't see that much of it,
385
1189240
1616
CA: Ne vidimo ga najbolje,
20:02
but it doesn't look like
just a little friendly neighborhood truck.
just a little friendly neighborhood truck.
386
1190880
3216
no ne izgleda baš kao mali
zgodni kamiončić iz susjedstva.
zgodni kamiončić iz susjedstva.
20:06
It looks kind of badass.
387
1194120
1256
Izgleda opako.
20:07
What sort of semi is this?
388
1195400
3160
Kakva je to vrsta tegljača?
20:11
EM: So this is a heavy duty,
long-range semitruck.
long-range semitruck.
389
1199160
4576
EM: Ovo je tegljač velike
nosivosti za velike razdaljine.
nosivosti za velike razdaljine.
20:15
So it's the highest weight capability
390
1203760
4256
Ima najveću nosivost
20:20
and with long range.
391
1208040
3056
i za velike je udaljenosti.
20:23
So essentially it's meant to alleviate
the heavy-duty trucking loads.
the heavy-duty trucking loads.
392
1211120
5440
Zapravo bi trebao olakšati
prijenos teškog tereta.
prijenos teškog tereta.
20:29
And this is something which
people do not today think is possible.
people do not today think is possible.
393
1217280
5296
Danas se to smatra nemogućim.
20:34
They think the truck doesn't have enough
power or it doesn't have enough range,
power or it doesn't have enough range,
394
1222600
3736
Ljudi misle da kamion nema dovoljno snage
ili da ne može prijeći velike udaljenosti,
ili da ne može prijeći velike udaljenosti,
20:38
and then with the Tesla Semi
395
1226360
2536
a s Telsa tegljačem
20:40
we want to show that no, an electric truck
396
1228920
2656
želimo pokazati da električni kamion
20:43
actually can out-torque any diesel semi.
397
1231600
6016
zapravo može biti jači od bilo kojeg
kamiona s dizel motorom.
kamiona s dizel motorom.
20:49
And if you had a tug-of-war competition,
398
1237640
4136
Da imate natjecanje u izdržljivosti,
20:53
the Tesla Semi
will tug the diesel semi uphill.
will tug the diesel semi uphill.
399
1241800
5056
Teslin tegljač bi odgurnuo
dizelaša uz brdo.
dizelaša uz brdo.
20:58
(Laughter)
400
1246880
2256
(Smijeh)
21:01
(Applause)
401
1249160
1856
(Pljesak)
21:03
CA: That's pretty cool.
And short term, these aren't driverless.
And short term, these aren't driverless.
402
1251040
3016
CA: Zaista sjajno. Kratkoročno
gledano, njih će trebati voziti.
gledano, njih će trebati voziti.
21:06
These are going to be trucks
that truck drivers want to drive.
that truck drivers want to drive.
403
1254080
3320
To će biti kamioni koje će
vozači kamiona htjeti voziti.
vozači kamiona htjeti voziti.
21:10
EM: Yes. So what will be
really fun about this
really fun about this
404
1258480
2616
EM: Da. Ono što će biti jako zabavno
21:13
is you have a flat torque RPM curve
with an electric motor,
with an electric motor,
405
1261120
5376
jest to da elektromotor ima ravnu
krivulju okretnog momenta
krivulju okretnog momenta
21:18
whereas with a diesel motor or any kind
of internal combustion engine car,
of internal combustion engine car,
406
1266520
3496
dok dizel motor ili bilo koji auto s
motorom s unutrašnjim izgaranjem,
motorom s unutrašnjim izgaranjem,
21:22
you've got a torque RPM curve
that looks like a hill.
that looks like a hill.
407
1270040
2600
ima krivulju okretnog
momenta koja liči na brdo.
momenta koja liči na brdo.
21:25
So this will be a very spry truck.
408
1273840
2936
Tako da će ovo biti vrlo žustar kamion.
21:28
You can drive this
around like a sports car.
around like a sports car.
409
1276800
2856
Možete ga voziti okolo kao sportski auto.
21:31
There's no gears.
It's, like, single speed.
It's, like, single speed.
410
1279680
2376
Nema brzina, tj. ima samo jednu brzinu.
21:34
CA: There's a great movie
to be made here somewhere.
to be made here somewhere.
411
1282080
2456
CA: Sigurno će napraviti
sjajan film o ovome.
sjajan film o ovome.
21:36
I don't know what it is
and I don't know that it ends well,
and I don't know that it ends well,
412
1284560
2776
Ne znam koji i nisam siguran
hoće li dobro završiti,
hoće li dobro završiti,
21:39
but it's a great movie.
413
1287360
1216
ali sigurno će biti dobar film.
21:40
(Laughter)
414
1288600
1016
(Smijeh)
21:41
EM: It's quite bizarre test-driving.
415
1289640
2736
EM: Test vožnja je jako bizarna.
21:44
When I was driving the test prototype
for the first truck.
for the first truck.
416
1292400
4016
Kada sam vozio testni
prototip za prvi kamion.
prototip za prvi kamion.
21:48
It's really weird,
because you're driving around
because you're driving around
417
1296440
2256
Vrlo je čudan, jer se vozite naokolo
21:50
and you're just so nimble,
and you're in this giant truck.
and you're in this giant truck.
418
1298720
3096
i tako ste okretni, a nalazite se
u ogromnom kamionu.
u ogromnom kamionu.
21:53
CA: Wait, you've
already driven a prototype?
already driven a prototype?
419
1301840
3496
CA: Već si vozio prototip?
21:57
EM: Yeah, I drove it
around the parking lot,
around the parking lot,
420
1305360
2096
EM: Da, vozio sam ga po parkiralištu,
21:59
and I was like, this is crazy.
421
1307480
1456
i bilo mi je ludo.
22:00
CA: Wow. This is no vaporware.
422
1308960
2176
CA: Opa. To nam zaista dolazi.
22:03
EM: It's just like,
driving this giant truck
driving this giant truck
423
1311160
2096
EM: Vožnja ovog golemog kamiona
22:05
and making these mad maneuvers.
424
1313280
1976
i ludi manevri.
22:07
CA: This is cool.
OK, from a really badass picture
OK, from a really badass picture
425
1315280
2456
CA: To je sjajno.
Idemo s jedne opake slike,
Idemo s jedne opake slike,
22:09
to a kind of less badass picture.
426
1317760
2616
na jednu ne tako opaku sliku.
22:12
This is just a cute house
from "Desperate Housewives" or something.
from "Desperate Housewives" or something.
427
1320400
3336
Ovo je poput slatke kuće
iz "Očajnih kućanica".
iz "Očajnih kućanica".
22:15
What on earth is going on here?
428
1323760
3056
O čemu se ovdje radi?
22:18
EM: Well, this illustrates
the picture of the future
the picture of the future
429
1326840
2456
EM: Ovo prikazuje sliku budućnosti
22:21
that I think is how things will evolve.
430
1329320
2976
kako ja smatram da će se stvari odvijati.
22:24
You've got an electric car
in the driveway.
in the driveway.
431
1332320
2336
Imate električni auto na prilazu.
22:26
If you look in between
the electric car and the house,
the electric car and the house,
432
1334680
3736
Ako pogledate između auta i kuće,
22:30
there are actually three Powerwalls
stacked up against the side of the house,
stacked up against the side of the house,
433
1338440
3856
vidite tri Powerwall baterije
naslagane uz zid kuće,
naslagane uz zid kuće,
22:34
and then that house roof is a solar roof.
434
1342320
2816
a krov kuće je solarni.
22:37
So that's an actual solar glass roof.
435
1345160
2096
To je zapravo solarni stakleni krov.
22:39
CA: OK.
436
1347280
1216
CA: U redu.
22:40
EM: That's a picture of a real --
well, admittedly, it's a real fake house.
well, admittedly, it's a real fake house.
437
1348520
4256
EM: To je slika prave, tj.
prave lažne kuće.
prave lažne kuće.
22:44
That's a real fake house.
438
1352800
1656
To je prava lažna kuća.
22:46
(Laughter)
439
1354480
3096
(Smijeh)
22:49
CA: So these roof tiles,
440
1357600
1856
CA: Ti krovni crijepovi,
22:51
some of them have in them
basically solar power, the ability to --
basically solar power, the ability to --
441
1359480
6136
neki od njih imaju solarnu energiju,
sposobnost da --
sposobnost da --
22:57
EM: Yeah. Solar glass tiles
442
1365640
1696
EM: Da. Solarni stakleni crijepovi
22:59
where you can adjust
the texture and the color
the texture and the color
443
1367360
5096
kod kojih možete podesiti teksturu i boju
23:04
to a very fine-grained level,
444
1372480
1976
do vrlo precizne razine,
23:06
and then there's
sort of microlouvers in the glass,
sort of microlouvers in the glass,
445
1374480
5576
a postoje i mikrootvori u staklu,
23:12
such that when you're looking
at the roof from street level
at the roof from street level
446
1380080
3456
tako da kada promatrate
krov s razine ulice
krov s razine ulice
23:15
or close to street level,
447
1383560
1696
ili blizu razine ulice,
23:17
all the tiles look the same
448
1385280
2376
svi crijepovi izgledaju jednako
23:19
whether there is a solar cell
behind it or not.
behind it or not.
449
1387680
5080
bilo da neki imaju ili nemaju
solarnu ćeliju ispod sebe.
solarnu ćeliju ispod sebe.
23:26
So you have an even color
450
1394000
3416
Imate jednoličnu boju
23:29
from the ground level.
451
1397440
3496
s razine zemlje.
23:32
If you were to look at it
from a helicopter,
from a helicopter,
452
1400960
2096
Da promatrate iz helikoptera,
23:35
you would be actually able
to look through and see
to look through and see
453
1403080
2376
mogli biste vidjeti kroz njih
23:37
that some of the glass tiles have
a solar cell behind them and some do not.
a solar cell behind them and some do not.
454
1405480
4016
i uočiti solarne ćelije ispod
nekih staklenih crijepova.
nekih staklenih crijepova.
23:41
You can't tell from street level.
455
1409520
1616
To ne možete vidjeti s razine ulice.
23:43
CA: You put them in the ones
that are likely to see a lot of sun,
that are likely to see a lot of sun,
456
1411160
3056
CA: Ugrađujete ih u one crijepove
koji dobivaju više sunca,
koji dobivaju više sunca,
23:46
and that makes these roofs
super affordable, right?
super affordable, right?
457
1414240
2376
i zato su ti krovovi
toliko isplativi, zar ne?
toliko isplativi, zar ne?
23:48
They're not that much more expensive
than just tiling the roof.
than just tiling the roof.
458
1416640
2976
Nisu mnogo skuplji od
krova s običnim crijepom.
krova s običnim crijepom.
23:51
EM: Yeah.
459
1419640
1200
EM: Tako je.
23:53
We're very confident
that the cost of the roof
that the cost of the roof
460
1421840
2600
Uvjereni smo da će cijena krova
23:57
plus the cost of electricity --
461
1425840
1920
uključujući troškove struje --
24:01
A solar glass roof will be less
than the cost of a normal roof
than the cost of a normal roof
462
1429920
2936
Cijena solarnog staklenog krova bit će
manja od cijene običnog krova
manja od cijene običnog krova
24:04
plus the cost of electricity.
463
1432880
1416
uključujući troškove struje.
24:06
So in other words,
464
1434320
1256
Drugim riječima,
24:07
this will be economically a no-brainer,
465
1435600
4336
ovo će biti jednostavna ekonomska odluka,
24:11
we think it will look great,
466
1439960
1696
mislimo da će izgledati odlično,
24:13
and it will last --
467
1441680
2136
i trajat će --
24:15
We thought about having
the warranty be infinity,
the warranty be infinity,
468
1443840
3056
Razmišljali smo o tome da
garancija nema granice,
garancija nema granice,
24:18
but then people thought,
469
1446920
1216
no su neki pomislili,
24:20
well, that might sound
like were just talking rubbish,
like were just talking rubbish,
470
1448160
2576
da govorimo gluposti,
24:22
but actually this is toughened glass.
471
1450760
5616
ali zapravo se radi o kaljenom staklu.
24:28
Well after the house has collapsed
472
1456400
2896
Još mnogo godina nakon što se kuća uruši
24:31
and there's nothing there,
473
1459320
1896
i ne ostane više ništa od nje,
24:33
the glass tiles will still be there.
474
1461240
3536
stakleni crijepovi će još uvijek biti tu.
24:36
(Applause)
475
1464800
1576
(Pljesak)
24:38
CA: I mean, this is cool.
476
1466400
1736
CA: To je zaista sjajno.
24:40
So you're rolling this out
in a couple week's time, I think,
in a couple week's time, I think,
477
1468160
2856
Krećeš s ovime za nekoliko tjedana,
24:43
with four different roofing types.
478
1471040
2536
sa četiri različita tipa krova.
24:45
EM: Yeah, we're starting off
with two, two initially,
with two, two initially,
479
1473600
2536
EM: Da, počinjemo s dva tipa,
24:48
and the second two
will be introduced early next year.
will be introduced early next year.
480
1476160
3176
a druga dva ćemo predstaviti
početkom iduće godine.
početkom iduće godine.
24:51
CA: And what's the scale of ambition here?
481
1479360
2056
CA: I koliko ste ambiciozni oko toga?
24:53
How many houses do you believe
could end up having this type of roofing?
could end up having this type of roofing?
482
1481440
5520
Koliko kuća mislite da će
imati ovakvu vrstu krova?
imati ovakvu vrstu krova?
24:59
EM: I think eventually
483
1487760
1400
EM: Mislim da će s vremenom
25:02
almost all houses will have a solar roof.
484
1490560
3640
gotovo sve kuće imati solarni krov.
25:07
The thing is to consider
the time scale here
the time scale here
485
1495880
3536
Treba uzeti u obzir da će trebati
25:11
to be probably on the order
486
1499440
2456
određeno vrijeme da se to ostvari,
25:13
of 40 or 50 years.
487
1501920
3176
oko 40 do 50 godina.
25:17
So on average, a roof
is replaced every 20 to 25 years.
is replaced every 20 to 25 years.
488
1505120
4880
Krov se u prosjeku zamjenjuje
svakih 20 do 25 godina.
svakih 20 do 25 godina.
25:23
But you don't start replacing
all roofs immediately.
all roofs immediately.
489
1511400
3336
No, nećete odmah početi
mijenjati sve krovove.
mijenjati sve krovove.
25:26
But eventually,
if you say were to fast-forward
if you say were to fast-forward
490
1514760
3336
S vremenom, ako gledamo
25:30
to say 15 years from now,
491
1518120
3456
15 godina unaprijed,
25:33
it will be unusual to have a roof
that does not have solar.
that does not have solar.
492
1521600
3600
bit će neobično vidjeti
krov bez solarnih ploča.
krov bez solarnih ploča.
25:37
CA: Is there a mental model thing
that people don't get here
that people don't get here
493
1525840
2856
CA: Je li problem u tome da ljudi
ne razumiju kako će
ne razumiju kako će
25:40
that because of the shift in the cost,
the economics of solar power,
the economics of solar power,
494
1528720
4416
solarna energija biti ekonomična,
zbog izmjene cijene,
zbog izmjene cijene,
25:45
most houses actually have
enough sunlight on their roof
enough sunlight on their roof
495
1533160
4096
jer većina kuća zapravo ima dovoljno
sunčeve svjetlosti na krovu
sunčeve svjetlosti na krovu
25:49
pretty much to power all of their needs.
496
1537280
2056
da opskrbi sve potrebe kućanstva.
25:51
If you could capture the power,
497
1539360
1896
Kada biste mogli uhvatiti energiju,
25:53
it could pretty much
power all their needs.
power all their needs.
498
1541280
2056
ona bi mogla opskrbljivati
sve vaše potrebe.
sve vaše potrebe.
25:55
You could go off-grid, kind of.
499
1543360
1536
Mogli biste se skinuti s mreže.
25:56
EM: It depends on where you are
500
1544920
1536
EM: To ovisi o vašoj lokaciji
25:58
and what the house size is
relative to the roof area,
relative to the roof area,
501
1546480
3256
i veličini kuće u usporedbi
s veličinom krova,
s veličinom krova,
26:01
but it's a fair statement to say
502
1549760
1856
ali mogu reći da
26:03
that most houses in the US
have enough roof area
have enough roof area
503
1551640
4816
većina kuća u SAD-u ima
dovoljno velike krovove
dovoljno velike krovove
26:08
to power all the needs of the house.
504
1556480
1960
da opskrbe sve potrebe kućanstva.
26:11
CA: So the key to the economics
505
1559800
3176
CA: Znači, ključ isplativosti
26:15
of the cars, the Semi, of these houses
506
1563000
4016
automobila, tegljača i ovih kuća
26:19
is the falling price
of lithium-ion batteries,
of lithium-ion batteries,
507
1567040
3896
je u padu cijena litij-ionskih baterija,
26:22
which you've made a huge bet on as Tesla.
508
1570960
2496
na što si stavio veliki ulog Teslom.
26:25
In many ways, that's almost
the core competency.
the core competency.
509
1573480
2256
Radi se o gotovo ključnoj sposobnosti.
26:27
And you've decided
510
1575760
2256
Odlučio si da,
26:30
that to really, like, own that competency,
511
1578040
5216
kako bi zaista savladao tu sposobnost,
26:35
you just have to build
the world's largest manufacturing plant
the world's largest manufacturing plant
512
1583280
3456
moraš izgraditi najveću
tvornicu na svijetu
tvornicu na svijetu
26:38
to double the world's supply
of lithium-ion batteries,
of lithium-ion batteries,
513
1586760
3136
kako bi udvostručio svjetsku
zalihu litij-ionskih baterija,
zalihu litij-ionskih baterija,
26:41
with this guy. What is this?
514
1589920
2296
ovime. Što je ovo?
26:44
EM: Yeah, so that's the Gigafactory,
515
1592240
3456
EM: Ovo je Gigatvornica,
26:47
progress so far on the Gigafactory.
516
1595720
2696
dosadašnji napredak na Gigatvornici.
26:50
Eventually, you can sort of roughly see
517
1598440
1896
Možete vidjeti
26:52
that there's sort of
a diamond shape overall,
a diamond shape overall,
518
1600360
2936
da ima otprilike oblik romba,
26:55
and when it's fully done,
it'll look like a giant diamond,
it'll look like a giant diamond,
519
1603320
4616
a kada će biti dovršena, izgledat će
poput golemog dijamanta,
poput golemog dijamanta,
26:59
or that's the idea behind it,
520
1607960
2216
takva je barem zamisao,
27:02
and it's aligned on true north.
521
1610200
1496
i okrenuta je prema stvarnom sjeveru.
27:03
It's a small detail.
522
1611720
1736
To je mali detalj.
27:05
CA: And capable of producing, eventually,
523
1613480
3896
CA: I moći će proizvesti
27:09
like a hundred gigawatt hours
of batteries a year.
of batteries a year.
524
1617400
3176
godišnje stotinu gigavat-sata baterija.
27:12
EM: A hundred gigawatt hours.
We think probably more, but yeah.
We think probably more, but yeah.
525
1620600
2976
EM: Stotinu gigavat-sata.
Mislimo čak i više od toga.
Mislimo čak i više od toga.
27:15
CA: And they're actually
being produced right now.
being produced right now.
526
1623600
2376
CA: One se već sada proizvode.
27:18
EM: They're in production already.
CA: You guys put out this video.
CA: You guys put out this video.
527
1626000
3176
EM: Već su u proizvodnji.
CA: Objavili ste ovaj video.
CA: Objavili ste ovaj video.
27:21
I mean, is that speeded up?
528
1629200
1336
Je li ovo ubrzan prikaz?
27:22
EM: That's the slowed down version.
529
1630560
1696
EM: Ovo je usporeni prikaz.
27:24
(Laughter)
530
1632280
1776
(Smijeh)
27:26
CA: How fast does it actually go?
531
1634080
2336
CA: Koliko brzo ide?
27:28
EM: Well, when it's running at full speed,
532
1636440
2816
EM: Kada je u najvećoj brzini,
27:31
you can't actually see the cells
without a strobe light.
without a strobe light.
533
1639280
3936
ne možete vidjeti ćelije bez stroboskopa.
27:35
It's just blur.
534
1643240
1200
Inače je nejasno.
27:36
(Laughter)
535
1644540
3336
(Smijeh)
27:40
CA: One of your core ideas, Elon,
about what makes an exciting future
about what makes an exciting future
536
1648000
3576
CA: Jedna od tvojih ključnih ideja oko
toga što čini budućnost tako uzbudljivom
toga što čini budućnost tako uzbudljivom
27:43
is a future where we no longer
feel guilty about energy.
feel guilty about energy.
537
1651600
2640
jest budućnost u kojoj nas više
ne grize savjest zbog struje.
ne grize savjest zbog struje.
27:47
Help us picture this.
538
1655480
1416
Objasni nam to.
27:48
How many Gigafactories, if you like,
does it take to get us there?
does it take to get us there?
539
1656920
5016
Koliko je Gigatvornica
potrebno da se to ostvari?
potrebno da se to ostvari?
27:53
EM: It's about a hundred, roughly.
540
1661960
1736
EM: Otprilike stotinu njih.
27:55
It's not 10, it's not a thousand.
541
1663720
1736
Ne desest, niti tisuću.
27:57
Most likely a hundred.
542
1665480
1360
Najvjerojatnije sto.
28:00
CA: See, I find this amazing.
543
1668040
1656
CA: Mislim da je ovo čudesno.
28:01
You can picture what it would take
544
1669720
3976
Možeš zamisliti što je sve potrebno
28:05
to move the world
off this vast fossil fuel thing.
off this vast fossil fuel thing.
545
1673720
3256
da se svijet udalji od fosilnih goriva.
28:09
It's like you're building one,
546
1677000
2576
Za izgradnju jedne tvornice,
28:11
it costs five billion dollars,
547
1679600
2856
potrebno je pet milijardi dolara,
28:14
or whatever, five to 10 billion dollars.
548
1682480
2136
ili recimo pet do deset milijardi dolara.
28:16
Like, it's kind of cool
that you can picture that project.
that you can picture that project.
549
1684640
3616
Sjajno je što to uopće možeš zamisliti.
28:20
And you're planning to do, at Tesla --
announce another two this year.
announce another two this year.
550
1688280
4480
Ove godine u Tesli planiraš
najaviti još dvije tvornice.
najaviti još dvije tvornice.
28:25
EM: I think we'll announce locations
551
1693480
2856
EM: Mislim da ćemo najaviti lokacije
28:28
for somewhere between two
and four Gigafactories later this year.
and four Gigafactories later this year.
552
1696360
3736
za dvije do četiri Gigatvornice
tijekom ove godine.
tijekom ove godine.
28:32
Yeah, probably four.
553
1700120
1440
Vjerojatno četiri.
28:34
CA: Whoa.
554
1702040
1616
CA: Opa!
28:35
(Applause)
555
1703680
2616
(Pljesak)
28:38
No more teasing from you for here?
556
1706320
4056
Nećeš nam ništa više otkriti?
28:42
Like -- where, continent?
557
1710400
2800
Na primjer lokaciju, kontinent?
28:47
You can say no.
558
1715480
1200
Možeš odbiti.
28:49
EM: We need to address a global market.
559
1717440
3776
EM: Moramo se pozabaviti
globalnim tržištem,
globalnim tržištem,
28:53
CA: OK.
560
1721240
1216
CA: U redu.
28:54
(Laughter)
561
1722480
1336
(Smijeh)
28:55
This is cool.
562
1723840
1200
To je sjajno.
28:59
I think we should talk for --
563
1727480
4240
Mislim da bismo trebali govoriti --
29:04
Actually, double mark it.
564
1732560
1616
Zapravo, pazi sad.
29:06
I'm going to ask you one question
about politics, only one.
about politics, only one.
565
1734200
4096
Postavit ću ti samo
jedno pitanje o politici.
jedno pitanje o politici.
29:10
I'm kind of sick of politics,
but I do want to ask you this.
but I do want to ask you this.
566
1738320
3256
Muka mi je od politike, ali
te zaista želim ovo pitati.
te zaista želim ovo pitati.
29:13
You're on a body now
giving advice to a guy --
giving advice to a guy --
567
1741600
6336
Trenutno si u odboru i
savjetuješ jednog čovjeka --
savjetuješ jednog čovjeka --
29:19
EM: Who?
568
1747960
1216
EM: Koga?
29:21
CA: Who has said he doesn't
really believe in climate change,
really believe in climate change,
569
1749200
2896
CA: Koji je rekao da ne vjeruje
u klimatske promjene,
u klimatske promjene,
29:24
and there's a lot of people out there
who think you shouldn't be doing that.
who think you shouldn't be doing that.
570
1752120
4336
i mnogo ljudi smatra da
ne bi trebao to raditi.
ne bi trebao to raditi.
29:28
They'd like you to walk away from that.
571
1756480
1896
Žele da odustaneš od toga.
29:30
What would you say to them?
572
1758400
1360
Što bi im ti poručio?
29:32
EM: Well, I think that first of all,
573
1760720
3616
EM: Prije svega mislim,
29:36
I'm just on two advisory councils
574
1764360
2536
član sam samo dva
savjetodavna odbora
savjetodavna odbora
29:38
where the format consists
of going around the room
of going around the room
575
1766920
2816
koji funkcioniraju tako
da se krećemo po sobi
da se krećemo po sobi
29:41
and asking people's opinion on things,
576
1769760
2896
i pitamo druge za njihovo mišljenje,
29:44
and so there's like a meeting
every month or two.
every month or two.
577
1772680
3760
i svaki mjesec ili dva imamo sastanak.
29:49
That's the sum total of my contribution.
578
1777560
3216
To je sav moj doprinos.
29:52
But I think to the degree
that there are people in the room
that there are people in the room
579
1780800
2776
No, mislim da u toj sobi
donekle ima i onih
donekle ima i onih
29:55
who are arguing in favor
of doing something about climate change,
of doing something about climate change,
580
1783600
4736
koji se zalažu da se napravi nešto
u vezi klimatskih pomjena,
u vezi klimatskih pomjena,
30:00
or social issues,
581
1788360
4000
ili društvenih problema.
30:06
I've used the meetings I've had thus far
582
1794520
3216
Dosad sam te sastanke koristio
30:09
to argue in favor of immigration
and in favor of climate change.
and in favor of climate change.
583
1797760
4856
kako bih se zalagao za imigraciju
i protiv klimatskih promjena.
i protiv klimatskih promjena.
30:14
(Applause)
584
1802640
1936
(Pljesak)
30:16
And if I hadn't done that,
585
1804600
2096
Da to nisam napravio,
30:18
that wasn't on the agenda before.
586
1806720
2816
sada to ne bi bilo na dnevnom redu.
30:21
So maybe nothing will happen,
but at least the words were said.
but at least the words were said.
587
1809560
4240
Možda se ništa neće dogoditi, ali
barem sam izrazio svoje mišljenje.
barem sam izrazio svoje mišljenje.
30:26
CA: OK.
588
1814680
1216
CA: U redu.
30:27
(Applause)
589
1815920
2880
(Pljesak)
30:31
So let's talk SpaceX and Mars.
590
1819800
3536
Pričajmo malo o SpaceX-u i Marsu.
30:35
Last time you were here,
591
1823360
1456
Zadnji puta kada si bio ovdje
30:36
you spoke about what seemed like
a kind of incredibly ambitious dream
a kind of incredibly ambitious dream
592
1824840
3696
govorio si o nečemu što se činilo
kao nevjerojatno ambiciozan san
kao nevjerojatno ambiciozan san
30:40
to develop rockets
that were actually reusable.
that were actually reusable.
593
1828560
4296
o izgradnji raketa koje bi bile
višestruko upotrebljive.
višestruko upotrebljive.
30:44
And you've only gone and done it.
594
1832880
2136
A tako si i napravio.
30:47
EM: Finally. It took a long time.
595
1835040
1616
EM: Napokon. Trebalo je puno vremena.
30:48
CA: Talk us through this.
What are we looking at here?
What are we looking at here?
596
1836680
2576
CA: Pojasni nam. Što ovdje gledamo?
30:51
EM: So this is one of our rocket boosters
597
1839280
2136
EM: Ovo je jedna naša pogonska raketa
30:53
coming back from
very high and fast in space.
very high and fast in space.
598
1841440
4576
koja se velikom brzinom vraća
iz velike udaljenosti u svemiru.
iz velike udaljenosti u svemiru.
30:58
So just delivered the upper stage
599
1846040
3256
Gornji dio je razvio
31:01
at high velocity.
600
1849320
2096
veliku brzinu.
31:03
I think this might have been
at sort of Mach 7 or so,
at sort of Mach 7 or so,
601
1851440
3856
Mislim da se kretala brzinom
od oko sedam Mahova,
od oko sedam Mahova,
31:07
delivery of the upper stage.
602
1855320
1960
to je razvio gornji dio.
31:10
(Applause)
603
1858880
2000
(Pljesak)
31:13
CA: So that was a sped-up --
604
1861840
1496
CA: Ovo je bila ubrzana --
31:15
EM: That was the slowed down version.
605
1863360
1816
EM: Ovo je bila usporena snimka.
31:17
(Laughter)
606
1865200
1336
(Smijeh)
31:18
CA: I thought that was
the sped-up version.
the sped-up version.
607
1866560
2496
CA: Mislio sam da je to
bila ubrzana verzija.
bila ubrzana verzija.
31:21
But I mean, that's amazing,
608
1869080
1336
To je zaista nevjerojatno,
31:22
and several of these failed
609
1870440
1336
a nekoliko ovakvih raketa je propalo
31:23
before you finally
figured out how to do it,
figured out how to do it,
610
1871800
2936
prije no što si napokon
shvatio kako to ostvariti,
shvatio kako to ostvariti,
31:26
but now you've done this,
what, five or six times?
what, five or six times?
611
1874760
2896
a sada si to napravio već pet-šest puta?
31:29
EM: We're at eight or nine.
612
1877680
2296
EM: Sada smo na osmom ili devetom testu.
31:32
CA: And for the first time,
613
1880000
1616
CA: I po prvi puta,
31:33
you've actually reflown
one of the rockets that landed.
one of the rockets that landed.
614
1881640
3136
upotrijebio si raketu koja je već letjela.
31:36
EM: Yeah, so we landed the rocket booster
615
1884800
2776
EM: Da, prizemljli smo pogonsku raketu
31:39
and then prepped it for flight again
and flew it again,
and flew it again,
616
1887600
2616
i potom je pripremili za
ponovni let i lansirali je,
ponovni let i lansirali je,
31:42
so it's the first reflight
of an orbital booster
of an orbital booster
617
1890240
5176
tako da je to prvi ponovljeni
let lansirne rakete
let lansirne rakete
31:47
where that reflight is relevant.
618
1895440
1976
zbog čega je taj let značajan.
31:49
So it's important to appreciate
that reusability is only relevant
that reusability is only relevant
619
1897440
3176
Treba imati na umu da je višestruka
uporaba značajna samo onda
uporaba značajna samo onda
31:52
if it is rapid and complete.
620
1900640
4080
kada je brza i potpuna.
31:57
So like an aircraft or a car,
621
1905400
3256
Dakle, poput aviona ili auta,
32:00
the reusability is rapid and complete.
622
1908680
2376
višestruka uporaba je brza i potpuna.
32:03
You do not send your aircraft
to Boeing in-between flights.
to Boeing in-between flights.
623
1911080
5056
Ne šaljete svoj avion proizvođaču
na pregled između svakog leta.
na pregled između svakog leta.
32:08
CA: Right. So this is allowing you
to dream of this really ambitious idea
to dream of this really ambitious idea
624
1916160
4816
CA: Tako je. Zahvaljujući tome možete
sanjariti o vrlo ambicioznoj ideji
sanjariti o vrlo ambicioznoj ideji
32:13
of sending many, many, many people to Mars
625
1921000
3176
o slanju velikog broja ljudi na Mars
32:16
in, what, 10 or 20 years time, I guess.
626
1924200
2416
za recimo 10 ili 20 godina.
32:18
EM: Yeah.
627
1926640
1376
EM: Tako je.
32:20
CA: And you've designed
this outrageous rocket to do it.
this outrageous rocket to do it.
628
1928040
3416
CA: Ti si konstruirao tu nečuvenu
raketu kako bi to ostvario.
raketu kako bi to ostvario.
32:23
Help us understand
the scale of this thing.
the scale of this thing.
629
1931480
2416
Objasni nam njene razmjere.
32:25
EM: Well, visually
you can see that's a person.
you can see that's a person.
630
1933920
4880
EM: Možete vidjeti da je ovo osoba.
32:32
Yeah, and that's the vehicle.
631
1940680
1816
A ovo je raketa.
32:34
(Laughter)
632
1942520
1656
(Smijeh)
32:36
CA: So if that was a skyscraper,
633
1944200
1736
CA: Da je to neboder,
32:37
that's like, did I read that,
a 40-story skyscraper?
a 40-story skyscraper?
634
1945960
3336
imala bi 40 katova, zar ne?
32:41
EM: Probably a little more, yeah.
635
1949320
1600
EM: Vjerojatno malo više.
32:44
The thrust level of this is really --
636
1952360
4000
Stupanj potiska rakete je zaista -
32:50
This configuration is about four times
the thrust of the Saturn V moon rocket.
the thrust of the Saturn V moon rocket.
637
1958360
4920
Ova verzija je četiri puta jača od potiska
rakete Saturn V koja je letjela na Mjesec.
rakete Saturn V koja je letjela na Mjesec.
32:56
CA: Four times the thrust of the biggest
rocket humanity ever created before.
rocket humanity ever created before.
638
1964440
4856
CA: Četiri puta jača od najjače rakete
koju je izgradilo čovječanstvo.
koju je izgradilo čovječanstvo.
33:01
EM: Yeah. Yeah.
639
1969320
1200
EM: Tako je.
33:04
CA: As one does.
EM: Yeah.
EM: Yeah.
640
1972640
1456
CA: Sasvim normalno.
EM: Da.
EM: Da.
33:06
(Laughter)
641
1974120
2976
(Smijeh)
33:09
In units of 747, a 747 is only about
a quarter of a million pounds of thrust,
a quarter of a million pounds of thrust,
642
1977120
5976
U jedinicama Boeinga 747, 747 ima
oko 114 tisuća kilograma potiska,
oko 114 tisuća kilograma potiska,
33:15
so for every 10 million pounds of thrust,
643
1983120
3096
pa za svaka 4.5 milijuna kg potiska,
33:18
there's 40 747s.
644
1986240
1696
imamo 40 Boeinga 747.
33:19
So this would be the thrust equivalent
of 120 747s, with all engines blazing.
of 120 747s, with all engines blazing.
645
1987960
6256
Taj potisak bio bi jednak 120 Boeinga 747,
sa svim upaljenim motorima.
sa svim upaljenim motorima.
33:26
CA: And so even with a machine
designed to escape Earth's gravity,
designed to escape Earth's gravity,
646
1994240
4216
CA: Čak i sa strojem konstruiranim
za izlazak iz Zemljine gravitacije,
za izlazak iz Zemljine gravitacije,
33:30
I think you told me last time
647
1998480
1416
mislim da si mi zadnji put rekao
33:31
this thing could actually
take a fully loaded 747,
take a fully loaded 747,
648
1999920
3256
da bi ova raketa mogla vinuti
nakrcani Boeing 747,
nakrcani Boeing 747,
33:35
people, cargo, everything,
649
2003200
2336
zajedno s ljudima, teretom, svime,
33:37
into orbit.
650
2005560
1256
u orbitu.
33:38
EM: Exactly. This can take
a fully loaded 747 with maximum fuel,
a fully loaded 747 with maximum fuel,
651
2006840
5136
EM: Upravo tako. Može primiti
puni 747 s punim rezervoarom,
puni 747 s punim rezervoarom,
33:44
maximum passengers,
maximum cargo on the 747 --
maximum cargo on the 747 --
652
2012000
4496
s maksimalnim brojem putnika i tereta,
33:48
this can take it as cargo.
653
2016520
2240
može ga primiti kao teret na sebe.
33:52
CA: So based on this,
654
2020080
1736
CA: Na osnovu toga,
33:53
you presented recently
this Interplanetary Transport System
this Interplanetary Transport System
655
2021840
4816
nedavno si predstavio
Međuplanetarni Transportni Sustav
Međuplanetarni Transportni Sustav
33:58
which is visualized this way.
656
2026680
3376
koji je ovako prikazan.
34:02
This is a scene you picture in, what,
30 years time? 20 years time?
30 years time? 20 years time?
657
2030080
4080
Misliš da će ovaj prikaz postati
stvarnost za 20 ili 30 godina?
stvarnost za 20 ili 30 godina?
34:06
People walking into this rocket.
658
2034880
2576
Ukrcavanje u ovu raketu.
34:09
EM: I'm hopeful it's sort of
an eight- to 10-year time frame.
an eight- to 10-year time frame.
659
2037480
4576
EM: Nadam se da će do
toga doći za 8 do 10 godina.
toga doći za 8 do 10 godina.
34:14
Aspirationally, that's our target.
660
2042080
2376
Težimo za time, to nam je cilj.
34:16
Our internal targets
are more aggressive, but I think --
are more aggressive, but I think --
661
2044480
3016
Naši interni ciljevi su
agresivniji, no mislim --
agresivniji, no mislim --
34:19
(Laughter)
662
2047520
2159
(Smijeh)
34:23
CA: OK.
663
2051600
1215
CA: U redu.
34:24
EM: While vehicle seems quite large
664
2052840
2136
EM: Iako se raketa čini jako velika,
34:27
and is large by comparison
with other rockets,
with other rockets,
665
2055000
2176
i velika je u odnosu na druge rakete,
34:29
I think the future spacecraft
666
2057199
3977
mislim da će u usporedbi s
budućim svemirskim letjelicama
budućim svemirskim letjelicama
34:33
will make this look like a rowboat.
667
2061199
3841
ova izgledati kao čamac na vesla.
34:38
The future spaceships
will be truly enormous.
will be truly enormous.
668
2066320
4696
Buduće svemirske letjelice
zaista će biti goleme.
zaista će biti goleme.
34:43
CA: Why, Elon?
669
2071040
2176
CA: Zašto, Elone?
34:45
Why do we need to build a city on Mars
670
2073239
4137
Zašto moramo izgraditi grad na Marsu
34:49
with a million people
on it in your lifetime,
on it in your lifetime,
671
2077400
3056
s milijun ljudi u tvom životnom vijeku?
34:52
which I think is kind of
what you've said you'd love to do?
what you've said you'd love to do?
672
2080480
3000
Mislim da si rekao
da bi volio to ostvariti.
da bi volio to ostvariti.
34:56
EM: I think it's important to have
673
2084480
2759
EM: Smatram da je bitno imati
35:01
a future that is inspiring and appealing.
674
2089120
2736
inspirativnu i privlačnu budućnost.
35:03
I just think there have to be reasons
675
2091880
2776
Jednostavno mislim da
trebamo imati razloge
trebamo imati razloge
35:06
that you get up in the morning
and you want to live.
and you want to live.
676
2094679
2937
zbog kojih se ujutro ustajemo i živimo.
35:09
Like, why do you want to live?
677
2097640
1456
Zašto želite živjeti?
35:11
What's the point? What inspires you?
678
2099120
1736
Koja je svrha? Što vas nadahnjuje?
35:12
What do you love about the future?
679
2100880
1856
Što vas kod budućnosti veseli?
35:14
And if we're not out there,
680
2102760
1496
A ako nismo tamo,
35:16
if the future does not include
being out there among the stars
being out there among the stars
681
2104280
4016
ako budućnost ne uključuje našu
prisutnost među zvijezdama
prisutnost među zvijezdama
35:20
and being a multiplanet species,
682
2108320
1696
i nas kao multiplanetarnu vrstu,
35:22
I find that it's incredibly depressing
683
2110040
2496
to smatram nevjerojatno depresivnim,
35:24
if that's not the future
that we're going to have.
that we're going to have.
684
2112560
3336
ako to neće biti naša budućnost.
35:27
(Applause)
685
2115920
4176
(Pljesak)
35:32
CA: People want to position this
as an either or,
as an either or,
686
2120120
2336
CA: Ljudi ovo smatraju nebitnim,
35:34
that there are so many desperate things
happening on the planet now
happening on the planet now
687
2122480
3696
jer se toliko užasnih stvari
trenutno događa na svijetu
trenutno događa na svijetu
35:38
from climate to poverty
to, you know, you pick your issue.
to, you know, you pick your issue.
688
2126200
3440
od klime do siromaštva,
možeš birati problem.
možeš birati problem.
35:42
And this feels like a distraction.
689
2130480
2536
A ovo djeluje kao nešto
što odvraća pozornost.
što odvraća pozornost.
35:45
You shouldn't be thinking about this.
690
2133040
1816
Ne bi trebao o tome razmišljati.
35:46
You should be solving what's here and now.
691
2134880
2176
Trebao bi rješavati postojeće probleme.
35:49
And to be fair, you've done
a fair old bit to actually do that
a fair old bit to actually do that
692
2137080
2936
Da budem iskren, puno si toga i napravio
35:52
with your work on sustainable energy.
693
2140040
2816
svojim radom na održivoj energiji.
35:54
But why not just do that?
694
2142880
2040
Zašto se ne zadržavaš samo na tome?
35:59
EM: I think there's --
695
2147360
2080
EM: Mislim da ima --
36:04
I look at the future
from the standpoint of probabilities.
from the standpoint of probabilities.
696
2152840
4416
Budućnost promatram
s gledišta mogućnosti.
s gledišta mogućnosti.
36:09
It's like a branching
stream of probabilities,
stream of probabilities,
697
2157280
4176
Kao neke točke od koje
se granaju mogućnosti.
se granaju mogućnosti.
36:13
and there are actions that we can take
that affect those probabilities
that affect those probabilities
698
2161480
5000
Određenim postupcima možemo
utjecati na te mogućnosti
utjecati na te mogućnosti
36:19
or that accelerate one thing
or slow down another thing.
or slow down another thing.
699
2167920
3200
bilo da ubrzaju jednu stvar
ili da uspore drugu.
ili da uspore drugu.
36:24
I may introduce something new
to the probability stream.
to the probability stream.
700
2172000
4120
Mogao bih uvesti nešto novo
u tu mrežu mogućnosti.
u tu mrežu mogućnosti.
36:30
Sustainable energy
will happen no matter what.
will happen no matter what.
701
2178840
2176
Održiva energija će se sigurno ostvariti.
36:33
If there was no Tesla,
if Tesla never existed,
if Tesla never existed,
702
2181040
2496
Da nema Tesle, da nikada nije postojala,
36:35
it would have to happen out of necessity.
703
2183560
2856
trebala bi se ostvariti
iz čiste nužde.
iz čiste nužde.
36:38
It's tautological.
704
2186440
1576
To je čista tautologija.
36:40
If you don't have sustainable energy,
it means you have unsustainable energy.
it means you have unsustainable energy.
705
2188040
3656
Ako nemate održivu energiju, to
znači da imate neodrživu energiju.
znači da imate neodrživu energiju.
36:43
Eventually you will run out,
706
2191720
1616
S vremenom ćete je istrošiti,
36:45
and the laws of economics
will drive civilization
will drive civilization
707
2193360
5816
i zakoni ekonomije pogurat će civilizaciju
36:51
towards sustainable energy,
708
2199200
1656
prema održivoj energiji.
36:52
inevitably.
709
2200880
1216
To je neizbježno.
36:54
The fundamental value
of a company like Tesla
of a company like Tesla
710
2202120
2976
Temeljna vrijednost tvrtke poput Tesle
36:57
is the degree to which it accelerates
the advent of sustainable energy,
the advent of sustainable energy,
711
2205120
4416
jest ta do koje mjere ubrzava
dolazak održive enetgije,
dolazak održive enetgije,
37:01
faster than it would otherwise occur.
712
2209560
1762
brže no što bi se ona inače pojavila.
37:05
So when I think, like,
713
2213120
1216
Pa kada pomislim,
37:06
what is the fundamental good
of a company like Tesla,
of a company like Tesla,
714
2214360
2736
koje je temeljno dobro tvrtke poput Tesle,
37:09
I would say, hopefully,
715
2217120
1696
s nadom bih rekao,
37:10
if it accelerated that by a decade,
potentially more than a decade,
potentially more than a decade,
716
2218840
5616
ako ona ubrza taj proces za desetljeće,
potencijalno i više od toga,
potencijalno i više od toga,
37:16
that would be quite a good thing to occur.
717
2224480
2136
to bi zaista bila vrlo dobra stvar.
37:18
That's what I consider to be
718
2226640
1616
To je ono što smatram
37:20
the fundamental
aspirational good of Tesla.
aspirational good of Tesla.
719
2228280
4080
temeljnim dobrom kojem Tesla teži.
37:25
Then there's becoming a multiplanet
species and space-faring civilization.
species and space-faring civilization.
720
2233480
6336
Zatim imamo pretvaranje u multiplanetarnu
vrstu i civilizaciju koja putuje svemirom.
vrstu i civilizaciju koja putuje svemirom.
37:31
This is not inevitable.
721
2239840
1936
To nije nešto neizbježno.
37:33
It's very important to appreciate
this is not inevitable.
this is not inevitable.
722
2241800
2696
Treba biti svjestan da to nije neizbježno.
37:36
The sustainable energy future
I think is largely inevitable,
I think is largely inevitable,
723
2244520
3096
Budućnost s održivom energijom
uglavnom je neizbježna,
uglavnom je neizbježna,
37:39
but being a space-faring civilization
is definitely not inevitable.
is definitely not inevitable.
724
2247640
4736
ali rast u civilizaciju koja putuje
svemirom sigurno nije neizbježna.
svemirom sigurno nije neizbježna.
37:44
If you look at the progress in space,
725
2252400
4176
Ako pogledate napredak u svemiru,
37:48
in 1969 you were able
to send somebody to the moon.
to send somebody to the moon.
726
2256600
2600
godine 1969. mogli ste
poslati čovjeka na Mjesec.
poslati čovjeka na Mjesec.
37:52
1969.
727
2260040
1200
1969.
37:54
Then we had the Space Shuttle.
728
2262840
2896
Onda smo imali Space Shuttle.
37:57
The Space Shuttle could only
take people to low Earth orbit.
take people to low Earth orbit.
729
2265760
3416
On je mogao dovesti ljude samo
u nižu zemljinu orbitu.
u nižu zemljinu orbitu.
38:01
Then the Space Shuttle retired,
730
2269200
1536
Zatim su povukli Space Shuttle,
38:02
and the United States
could take no one to orbit.
could take no one to orbit.
731
2270760
2400
i SAD više nikoga nije
mogao vinuti u orbitu.
mogao vinuti u orbitu.
38:06
So that's the trend.
732
2274320
1256
To je trend.
38:07
The trend is like down to nothing.
733
2275600
2680
Trend je nazadovanje.
38:11
People are mistaken when they think
734
2279560
2376
Ljudi se varaju kada misle
38:13
that technology
just automatically improves.
just automatically improves.
735
2281960
2096
da se tehnologija automatski poboljšava.
38:16
It does not automatically improve.
736
2284080
1896
To nije tako.
38:18
It only improves if a lot of people
work very hard to make it better,
work very hard to make it better,
737
2286000
4656
Ona se jedino poboljšava ako puno ljudi
naporno radi na tome da funkcionira bolje,
naporno radi na tome da funkcionira bolje,
38:22
and actually it will, I think,
by itself degrade, actually.
by itself degrade, actually.
738
2290680
5776
i zapravo smatram da se će
ona sama po sebi unazaditi.
ona sama po sebi unazaditi.
38:28
You look at great civilizations
like Ancient Egypt,
like Ancient Egypt,
739
2296480
2416
Pogledajte velike civilizacije
poput drevnog Egipta,
poput drevnog Egipta,
38:30
and they were able to make the pyramids,
740
2298920
1936
mogli su izgraditi piramide,
38:32
and they forgot how to do that.
741
2300880
1816
a onda su zaboravili tu vještinu.
38:34
And then the Romans,
they built these incredible aqueducts.
they built these incredible aqueducts.
742
2302720
2816
Potom Rimljani, mogli su
izgraditi čudesne akvadukte.
izgraditi čudesne akvadukte.
38:37
They forgot how to do it.
743
2305560
1200
Zaboravili su tu vještinu.
38:40
CA: Elon, it almost seems,
listening to you
listening to you
744
2308720
2056
CA: Gotovo da se čini, kada te slušam
38:42
and looking at the different
things you've done,
things you've done,
745
2310800
2256
i kada sagledam razne
stvari koje si napravio,
stvari koje si napravio,
38:45
that you've got this unique
double motivation on everything
double motivation on everything
746
2313080
2776
da imaš jedinstvenu
duplu motivaciju za sve
duplu motivaciju za sve
38:47
that I find so interesting.
747
2315880
1320
što ja smatram zanimljivim.
38:51
One is this desire to work
for humanity's long-term good.
for humanity's long-term good.
748
2319720
4576
Jedno je želja da radiš za
dugoročnu dobrobit čovječanstva.
dugoročnu dobrobit čovječanstva.
38:56
The other is the desire
to do something exciting.
to do something exciting.
749
2324320
2336
Drugo je želja da radiš
na nečemu uzbudljivom.
na nečemu uzbudljivom.
38:58
And often it feels like you feel
like you need the one to drive the other.
like you need the one to drive the other.
750
2326680
4696
Često se čini kao da ti treba
prvo kako bi ostvario drugo.
prvo kako bi ostvario drugo.
39:03
With Tesla, you want
to have sustainable energy,
to have sustainable energy,
751
2331400
3096
Uz Teslu želiš imati održivu enegiju,
39:06
so you made these super sexy,
exciting cars to do it.
exciting cars to do it.
752
2334520
4536
pa si radi toga napravio ove izuzetno
privlačne, uzbudljive aute.
privlačne, uzbudljive aute.
39:11
Solar energy, we need to get there,
753
2339080
1696
Treba nam sunčeva energija,
39:12
so we need to make these beautiful roofs.
754
2340800
1953
pa zato trebamo izgraditi
one divne krovove.
one divne krovove.
39:14
We haven't even spoken
about your newest thing,
about your newest thing,
755
2342777
2199
Nismo niti spomenuli
tvoj najnoviji projekt,
tvoj najnoviji projekt,
39:17
which we don't have time to do,
756
2345000
1536
za to nemamo vremena,
39:18
but you want to save humanity from bad AI,
757
2346560
2336
no, ti želiš sačuvati čovječanstvo
od loše umjetne inteligencije,
od loše umjetne inteligencije,
39:20
and so you're going to create
this really cool brain-machine interface
this really cool brain-machine interface
758
2348920
3296
stoga ćeš napraviti sjajno
sučelje između mozga i stroja
sučelje između mozga i stroja
39:24
to give us all infinite memory
and telepathy and so forth.
and telepathy and so forth.
759
2352240
3856
kako bi nam svima omogućio bezgranično
pamćenje, telepatiju i tako dalje.
pamćenje, telepatiju i tako dalje.
39:28
And on Mars, it feels
like what you're saying is,
like what you're saying is,
760
2356120
2696
A na Marsu, čini se da želiš reći
39:30
yeah, we need to save humanity
761
2358840
3696
da trebamo spasiti čovječanstvo
39:34
and have a backup plan,
762
2362560
1376
i imati plan B,
39:35
but also we need to inspire humanity,
763
2363960
3256
ali i da trebamo nadahnuti čovječanstvo,
39:39
and this is a way to inspire.
764
2367240
4520
i da je to način kako da to ostvarimo.
39:45
EM: I think the value
of beauty and inspiration
of beauty and inspiration
765
2373680
3776
EM: Mislim da je vrijednost
ljepote i nadahnuća
ljepote i nadahnuća
39:49
is very much underrated,
766
2377480
1976
vrlo podcijenjena,
39:51
no question.
767
2379480
1576
to je neupitno.
39:53
But I want to be clear.
768
2381080
1256
No, želim biti jasan.
39:54
I'm not trying to be anyone's savior.
769
2382360
1816
Ne želim biti ničiji spasitelj.
39:56
That is not the --
770
2384200
1200
To nije --
39:58
I'm just trying to think about the future
771
2386240
3776
Ja samo pokušavam razmišljati o budućnosti
40:02
and not be sad.
772
2390040
1200
a da me to ne rastužuje.
40:04
(Applause)
773
2392400
2096
(Pljesak)
40:06
CA: Beautiful statement.
774
2394520
1200
CA: Prekrasna izjava.
40:10
I think everyone here would agree
775
2398200
1576
Mislim da bi se svi ovdje složili
40:11
that it is not --
776
2399800
1200
da to nije --
40:13
None of this is going
to happen inevitably.
to happen inevitably.
777
2401800
2056
Ništa od ovog neće se
neizbježno ostvariti.
neizbježno ostvariti.
40:15
The fact that in your mind,
you dream this stuff,
you dream this stuff,
778
2403880
3656
Činjenica da u tvom umu,
da sanjaš o ovome,
da sanjaš o ovome,
40:19
you dream stuff that no one else
would dare dream,
would dare dream,
779
2407560
2576
o stvarima o kojima se nitko
drugi ne bi usudio sanjati,
drugi ne bi usudio sanjati,
40:22
or no one else
would be capable of dreaming
would be capable of dreaming
780
2410160
2656
ili nitko drugi ne bi mogao sanjati
40:24
at the level of complexity that you do.
781
2412840
3656
tako kompleksno kao ti.
40:28
The fact that you do that, Elon Musk,
is a really remarkable thing.
is a really remarkable thing.
782
2416520
3176
Činjenica da ti to radiš, Elone Musk,
zaista je izvanredna stvar.
zaista je izvanredna stvar.
40:31
Thank you for helping us all
to dream a bit bigger.
to dream a bit bigger.
783
2419720
2696
Hvala ti što nam svima
pomažeš sanjati veće snove.
pomažeš sanjati veće snove.
40:34
EM: But you'll tell me if it ever
starts getting genuinely insane, right?
starts getting genuinely insane, right?
784
2422440
3496
EM: Reći ćeš mi ako stvari
postanu zaista sulude, zar ne?
postanu zaista sulude, zar ne?
40:37
(Laughter)
785
2425960
2496
(Smijeh)
40:40
CA: Thank you, Elon Musk.
That was really, really fantastic.
That was really, really fantastic.
786
2428480
3096
CA: Hvala ti, Elone Musk.
Ovo je bilo zaista fantastično.
Ovo je bilo zaista fantastično.
40:43
That was really fantastic.
787
2431600
1416
Zaista fantastično.
40:45
(Applause)
788
2433040
4080
(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Elon Musk - Serial entrepreneurElon Musk is the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors and the CEO/CTO of Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX).
Why you should listen
At SpaceX, Musk oversees the development of rockets and spacecraft for missions to Earth orbit and ultimately to other planets. In 2008, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon spacecraft won the NASA contract to provide cargo transport to space. In 2012, SpaceX became the first commercial company to dock with the International Space Station and return cargo to Earth with the Dragon.
At Tesla, Musk has overseen product development and design from the beginning, including the all-electric Tesla Roadster, Model S and Model X, and the rollout of Supercharger stations to keep the cars juiced up. (Some of the charging stations use solar energy systems from SolarCity, of which Musk is the non-executive chair.) Transitioning to a sustainable energy economy, in which electric vehicles play a pivotal role, has been one of his central interests for almost two decades. He co-founded PayPal and served as the company's chair and CEO.
Elon Musk | Speaker | TED.com