TEDSalon NY2011
Daniel Goldstein: The battle between your present and future self
Daniel Goldstein: a batalla entre o eu presente e o eu futuro
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Cada día tomamos decisións que teñen boas ou más consecuencias para o noso futuro. Daniel Goldstein constrúe ferramentas que axudan a que nos imaxinemos a nós mesmos co paso do tempo e así poidamos facer as eleccións axeitadas para o noso futuro.
Daniel Goldstein - Behavioral economist
Daniel Goldstein studies how we make decisions about our financial selves -- both now and in the future, Full bio
Daniel Goldstein studies how we make decisions about our financial selves -- both now and in the future, Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Do you remember the story
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Lembrades a historia
00:17
of Odysseus and the Sirens
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de Ulises e as Sereas
00:19
from high school or junior high school?
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que nos contaban no colexio?
00:21
There was this hero, Odysseus, who's heading back home
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Este heroe, Ulises, estaba de camiño de volta á casa
00:24
after the Trojan War.
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despois da Guerra de Troia.
00:26
And he's standing on the deck of his ship,
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E cando estaba na cuberta do seu barco,
00:28
he's talking to his first mate,
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dirixiuse ao seu primeiro oficial
00:30
and he's saying,
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e díxolle:
00:32
"Tomorrow, we will sail past those rocks,
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"Mañá navegaremos ao lado desas rochas,
00:35
and on those rocks sit some beautiful women
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onde habitan fermosas mulleres
00:37
called Sirens.
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chamadas Sereas.
00:39
And these women sing an enchanting song,
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E estas mulleres cantan unha canción deleitosa,
00:42
a song so alluring
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unha canción tan fascinante
00:44
that all sailors who hear it
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que tódolos navegantes que a escoitan
00:46
crash into the rocks and die."
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coliden contra as rochas e morren".
00:48
Now you would expect, given that,
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Visto o panorama, un agardaría
00:50
that they would choose an alternate route around the Sirens,
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que elixisen unha ruta alternativa e así evitar as Sereas,
00:53
but instead Odysseus says,
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mais no canto diso Ulises dixo:
00:56
"I want to hear that song.
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"Quero escoitar esa canción.
00:58
And so what I'm going to do
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Así que o que vou facer
01:00
is I'm going to pour wax in the ears
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é verter cera nos teus oídos
01:02
of you and all the men --
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e nos do resto da tripulación.
01:04
stay with me --
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Quedade con isto,
01:06
so that you can't hear the song,
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así non poderedes oír a canción,
01:08
and then I'm going to have you tie me to the mast
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e logo atarédesme ao mastro
01:11
so that I can listen
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para que eu poida escoitala
01:13
and we can all sail by unaffected."
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e así poderemos seguir navegando sen máis".
01:15
So this is a captain
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Isto é un capitán
01:18
putting the life of every single person on the ship at risk
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poñendo en perigo a vida das persoas do barco
01:20
so that he can hear a song.
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para poder escoitar unha canción.
01:22
And I'd like to think if this was the case,
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E gustaríame pensar que de ser así,
01:24
they probably would have rehearsed it a few times.
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farían algún ensaio.
01:27
Odysseus would have said, "Okay, let's do a dry run.
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Ulises diría: "Veña, imos facer unha proba.
01:30
You tie me to the mast, and I'm going to beg and plead.
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Atádesme ao mastro e vouvos suplicar e rogar.
01:33
And no matter what I say, you cannot untie me from the mast.
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E non importa o que diga, non podedes desatarme do mastro.
01:35
All right, so tie me to the mast."
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Ben, atádeme logo".
01:37
And the first mate takes a rope
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E o primeiro oficial colle unha corda
01:39
and ties Odysseus to the mast in a nice knot.
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e ata a Ulises ao mastro cun bo nó.
01:42
And Odysseus does his best job playacting
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Ulises fai a súa mellor interpretación
01:44
and says, "Untie me. Untie me.
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e di: "Desatádeme. Desatádeme.
01:46
I want to hear that song. Untie me."
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Quero escoitar esa canción. Desatádeme".
01:48
And the first mate wisely resists
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E o primeiro oficial prudentemente resístese
01:50
and doesn't untie Odysseus.
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e non desata a Ulises.
01:52
And then Odysseus says, "I see that you can get it.
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E logo Ulises di: "Vexo que o pillastes.
01:55
All right, untie me now and we'll get some dinner."
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Ben, desatádeme e vaiamos cear algo".
01:58
And the first mate hesitates.
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E o primeiro oficial dubida.
02:00
He's like, "Is this still the rehearsal,
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Pensa: "É parte do ensaio,
02:02
or should I untie him?"
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ou debería de facerlle caso?"
02:05
And the first mate thinks,
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E o oficial pensa:
02:07
"Well, I guess at some point the rehearsal has to end."
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"Supoño que o ensaio terá que rematar nalgún momento".
02:10
So he unties Odysseus, and Odysseus flips out.
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Así que desata a Ulises e este tolea.
02:13
He's like, "You idiot. You moron.
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Dille: "Parvo, inútil.
02:15
If you do that tomorrow, I'll be dead, you'll be dead,
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Se fas iso mañá hei morrer, ti has morrer
02:17
every single one of the men will be dead.
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e todos neste barco han morrer.
02:19
Now just don't untie me no matter what."
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Non me desates pase o que pase".
02:22
He throws the first mate to the ground.
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E tira ao oficial ao chan.
02:24
This repeats itself through the night --
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Isto mesmo repítese durante a noite:
02:26
rehearsal, tying to the mast,
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ensaiar, atar ao mastro,
02:28
conning his way out of it,
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enganar para librarse,
02:30
beating the poor first mate up mercilessly.
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golpear ao pobre primeiro oficial sen piedade.
02:33
Hilarity ensues.
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E todo o mundo ri.
02:36
Tying yourself to a mast
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O de atarse ao mastro
02:38
is perhaps the oldest written example
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é quizais o exemplo máis antigo
02:40
of what psychologists call a commitment device.
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do que os psicólogos chaman un mecanismo de compromiso.
02:43
A commitment device is a decision that you make
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Un mecanismo de compromiso é unha decisión que fas
02:46
with a cool head to bind yourself
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coa cabeza fría para comprometerte
02:49
so that you don't do something regrettable
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e así non facer nada que poidas lamentar
02:51
when you have a hot head.
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cando teñas a cabeza quente.
02:54
Because there's two heads inside one person
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Porque hai dúas cabezas dentro de cada un
02:56
when you think about it.
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se o pensades.
02:58
Scholars have long invoked this metaphor of two selves
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Os expertos evocan a miúdo esta metáfora dos dous eus
03:01
when it comes to questions of temptation.
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no tocante a cuestións de tentación.
03:04
There is first, the present self.
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En primeiro lugar está o eu presente.
03:07
This is like Odysseus when he's hearing the song.
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Este é coma Ulises cando escoita a canción.
03:10
He just wants to get to the front row.
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O único que quere é estar en primeira fila.
03:12
He just thinks about the here and now and the immediate gratification.
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Só pensa no aquí, no agora e a gratificación inmediata.
03:15
But then there's this other self, the future self.
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Pero logo está o outro eu, o eu futuro.
03:18
This is Odysseus as an old man
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Este é o Ulises de maior
03:20
who wants nothing more than to retire in a sunny villa
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que só quere asentarse nunha vila soleada
03:23
with his wife Penelope
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coa súa muller Penélope
03:25
outside of Ithaca -- the other one.
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nas aforas de Ítaca-- a outra Ítaca.
03:31
So why do we need commitment devices?
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Entón, por que precisamos mecanismos de compromiso?
03:35
Well resisting temptation is hard,
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Pois ben, resistir a tentación é difícil,
03:37
as the 19th century English economist
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como dixo o economista inglés
03:40
Nassau William Senior said,
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do século XIX Nassau William senior:
03:42
"To abstain from the enjoyment which is in our power,
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"Absterse do gozo que está no noso poder,
03:45
or to seek distant rather than immediate results,
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ou procurar resultados distantes antes cos inmediatos,
03:48
are among the most painful exertions
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son uns dos esforzos máis aflitivos
03:50
of the human will."
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do ser humano".
03:52
If you set goals for yourself and you're like a lot of other people,
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Se te estabeleces obxectivos e es coma o resto da xente,
03:55
you probably realize
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seguramente haste decatar
03:57
it's not that your goals are physically impossible
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de que non é que os teus obxectivos sexan fisicamente imposíbeis
03:59
that's keeping you from achieving them,
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e por iso non os consegues,
04:01
it's that you lack the self-discipline to stick to them.
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o que pasa é que careces da autodisciplina para realizalos.
04:04
It's physically possible to lose weight.
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Fisicamente é posíbel perder peso.
04:06
It's physically possible to exercise more.
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Fisicamente é posíbel facer máis exercicio.
04:09
But resisting temptation
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Pero resistir a tentación
04:11
is hard.
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é difícil.
04:13
The other reason
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A outra razón
04:15
that it's difficult to resist temptation
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pola que é difícil resistir a tentación
04:18
is because it's an unequal battle
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é porque se trata dunha batalla desigual
04:21
between the present self and the future self.
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entre o eu presente e o eu futuro.
04:23
I mean, let's face it, the present self is present.
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É dicir, afrontémolo, o eu presente está presente.
04:25
It's in control. It's in power right now.
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É o que ten o control. É o que manda agora.
04:28
It has these strong, heroic arms
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Está nos nosos fortes e heroicos brazos
04:30
that can lift doughnuts into your mouth.
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que levan as rosquiñas á nosa boca.
04:32
And the future self is not even around.
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E o eu futuro nin sequera está próximo.
04:35
It's off in the future. It's weak.
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Está moi lonxe no futuro. É feble.
04:38
It doesn't even have a lawyer present.
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Nin sequera ten un avogado presente.
04:40
There's nobody to stick up for the future self.
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Non hai ninguén que defenda o eu futuro.
04:42
And so the present self can trounce
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E así o presente pode esnaquizar
04:45
all over its dreams.
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os seus soños.
04:47
So there's this battle between the two selves that's being fought,
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Esta é a batalla entre os dous eus,
04:51
and we need commitment devices
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e precisamos mecanismos de compromiso
04:53
to level the playing field between the two.
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para nivelar as forzas.
04:56
Now I'm a big fan of commitment devices actually.
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En verdade son un fan dos mecanismos de compromiso.
04:59
Tying yourself to the mast is the oldest one, but there are other ones
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Atarse ao mastro é o máis vello, pero existen outros
05:02
such as locking a credit card away with a key
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como poñer baixo chave unha tarxeta de crédito
05:06
or not bringing junk food into the house so you won't eat it
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ou non mercar comida lixo para non comela
05:09
or unplugging your Internet connection
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ou desconectar a túa conexión a Internet
05:11
so you can use your computer.
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para non usar o ordenador.
05:13
I was creating commitment devices of my own
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Creei mecanismos de compromiso de meu
05:15
long before I knew what they were.
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moito antes de saber o que eran.
05:17
So when I was a starving post-doc
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Cando era un famélico estudante de post-doutoramento
05:19
at Columbia University,
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na Universidade de Columbia,
05:21
I was deep in a publish-or-perish phase of my career.
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estaba nunha fase da miña carreira de "publica ou morre".
05:24
I had to write five pages a day
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Tiña que escribir cinco páxinas ao día
05:26
towards papers
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de artigos académicos
05:28
or I would have to give up five dollars.
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ou perder cinco dólares.
05:31
And when you try to execute these commitment devices,
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E cando intentas executar estes mecanismos de compromiso,
05:34
you realize the devil is really in the details.
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decátaste de que o demo está nos detalles.
05:36
Because it's not that easy to get rid of five dollars.
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Porque non é doado perder cinco dólares.
05:39
I mean, you can't burn it; that's illegal.
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É dicir, non podes queimalos; é ilegal.
05:42
And I thought, well I could give it to a charity
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E pensei, ben, podo doalos á caridade
05:44
or give it to my wife or something like that.
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ou darllos á miña muller ou algo así.
05:46
But then I thought, oh, I'm sending myself mixed messages.
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Pero logo pensei, vaites, estoume enviando mensaxes mesturadas.
05:48
Because not writing is bad, but giving to charity is good.
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Porque non escribir está mal, pero doalos está ben.
05:51
So then I would kind of justify not writing
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Así que podería xustificar o non escribir
05:53
by giving a gift.
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facendo un agasallo.
05:55
And then I kind of flipped that around and thought,
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E logo deille voltas e pensei,
05:57
well I could give it to the neo-Nazis.
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ben podo darlle o agasallo aos neo-Nazis.
05:59
But then I was like, that's more bad than writing is good,
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Pero iso sería máis malo que o bo que é escribir,
06:02
and so that wouldn't work.
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e non había funcionar.
06:04
So ultimately, I just decided
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Así que finalmente decidín
06:06
I would leave it in an envelope on the subway.
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que había deixalos metidos nun sobre no metro.
06:09
Sometimes a good person would find it,
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Ás veces encontraríaos alguén bo,
06:11
sometimes a bad person would find it.
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e outras veces alguén mao.
06:13
On average, it was just a completely pointless exchange of money
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De media, é un intercambio inútil de cartos
06:16
that I would regret.
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que había lamentar.
06:18
(Laughter)
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(Gargalladas)
06:21
Such it is with commitment devices.
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Así é cos mecanismos de compromiso.
06:24
But despite my like for them,
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Pero a pesar da miña simpatía cara eles,
06:28
there's two nagging concerns
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hai dúas preocupacións perturbadoras
06:30
that I've always had about commitment devices,
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que sempre tiven con respecto aos mecanismos de compromiso,
06:32
and you might feel this if you use them yourself.
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e seguramente vós as sentides se tamén os empregades.
06:34
So the first is,
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A primeira é,
06:36
when you've got one of these devices going,
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que cando adoptas un destes mecanismos,
06:38
such as this contract to write everyday or pay,
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coma este contrato polo que ou escribes tódolos días ou pagas,
06:41
it's just a constant reminder
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é só un recordatorio constante
06:43
that you have no self-control.
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de que non tes autocontrol.
06:45
You're just telling yourself, "Without you, commitment device,
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Diste a ti mesmo: "Sen ti, mecanismo de compromiso,
06:47
I am nothing, I have no self-discipline."
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non son ren, non teño autodisciplina".
06:50
And then when you're ever in a situation
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E cando esteas nunha situación
06:52
where you don't have a commitment device in place --
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na que non teñas mecanismo de compromiso,
06:55
like, "Oh my God, that person's offering me a doughnut,
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coma: "Deus, este tío ofréceme unha rosquiña,
06:57
and I have no defense mechanism," --
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e non teño mecanismo de defensa...
06:59
you just eat it.
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simplemente cómela.
07:01
So I don't like the way that they take the power away from you.
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Non me gusta como che sacan o poder.
07:04
I think self-discipline is something, it's like a muscle.
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Penso que a autodisciplina é coma un músculo.
07:07
The more you exercise it, the stronger it gets.
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Canto máis a exercitas máis forte se fai.
07:10
The other problem with commitment devices
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O outro problema cos mecanismos de compromiso
07:12
is that you can always weasel your way out of them.
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é que sempre podes escapar deles.
07:15
You say, "Well, of course I can't write today,
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Dis: "Claro, hoxe non podo escribir
07:17
because I'm giving a TEDTalk and I have five media interviews,
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porque vou dar unha charla en TED e teño cinco entrevistas
07:20
and then I'm going to a cocktail party and then I'll be drunk after that.
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e logo vou a unha festa e voume emborrachar.
07:23
And so there's no way that this is going to work."
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E non hai forma de que isto funcione".
07:26
So in effect, you are like Odysseus and the first mate
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Polo que si, somos coma Ulises e o seu primeiro oficial
07:28
in one person.
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nunha mesma persoa.
07:30
You're putting yourself, you're binding yourself,
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Preséntaste, átaste
07:33
and you're weaseling your way out of it,
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logo intentas fuxir,
07:35
and then you're beating yourself up afterwards.
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e logo dáste unha malleira.
07:37
So I've been working
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Así que estiven traballando
07:39
for about a decade now
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durante case unha década
07:41
on finding other ways
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para achar outros camiños
07:43
to change people's relationship to the future self
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para mudar a relación da xente co seu eu futuro
07:45
without using commitment devices.
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sen usar os mecanismos de compromiso.
07:47
In particular, I'm interested in the relationship
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Estou particularmente interesado na relación
07:50
to the future financial self.
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co eu futuro financeiro.
07:54
And this is a timely issue.
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Este é un tema oportuno.
07:56
I'm talking about the topic of saving.
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Estou falando do tema do aforro.
07:58
Now saving is a classic two selves problem.
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O aforro é un problema dos dous eus.
08:00
The present self does not want to save at all.
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O eu presente non quere aforrar nada.
08:03
It wants to consume.
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Quere consumir.
08:05
Whereas the future self wants the present self to save.
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Mentres que o eu futuro quere que o presente aforre.
08:09
So this is a timely problem.
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Este é un problema oportuno.
08:11
We look at the savings rate
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Observamos os índices de aforro
08:13
and it has been declining since the 1950s.
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que foron diminuíndo dende os anos cincuenta.
08:16
At the same time, the Retirement Risk Index,
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Ao mesmo tempo, o Índice de Risco da Xubilación,
08:19
the chance of not being able to meet your needs in retirement,
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a posibilidade de non ser quen de cubrir as necesidades na xubilación,
08:22
has been increasing.
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foi en aumento.
08:24
And we're at a situation now
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E agora estamos na situación
08:26
where for every three baby boomers,
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na que de cada tres nacementos,
08:28
the McKinsey Global Institute predicts
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o Instituto Global McKinsey predí
08:30
that two will not be able to meet their pre-retirement needs
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que dous non van ser quen de cubrir as súas necesidades pre-xubilatorias
08:34
while they're in retirement.
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cando estean xubilados.
08:36
So what can we do about this?
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Entón, que podemos facer?
08:39
There's a philosopher, Derek Parfit,
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Hai un filósofo, Derek Parfit,
08:42
who said some words that were inspiring to my coauthors and I.
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que serviu de inspiración para os meus coautores e para min.
08:45
He said that, "We might neglect our future selves
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Dixo que: "Descoidamos o noso futuro
08:48
because of some failure of belief or imagination."
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por algún tipo de crenza errónea ou imaxinación".
08:52
That is to say,
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É dicir,
08:54
we somehow might not believe that we're going to get old,
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por algún motivo non pensamos que nos faremos vellos,
08:57
or we might not be able to imagine
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ou non somos quen de imaxinar
08:59
that we're going to get old some day.
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que nos imos facer vellos algún día.
09:01
On the one hand, it sounds ridiculous.
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Por unha parte, soa ridículo.
09:03
Of course, we know that we're going to get old.
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Naturalmente, sabemos que imos ir a vellos.
09:05
But aren't there things that we believe and don't believe at the same time?
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Pero hai cousas que cremos e non cremos ao mesmo tempo, non si?
09:08
So my coauthors and I have used computers,
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Así que os meus coautores e eu empregamos as computadores,
09:11
the greatest tool of our time,
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a mellor ferramenta do noso tempo,
09:13
to assist people's imagination
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para axudar á imaxinación da xente,
09:15
and help them imagine what it might be like
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axudándolles a imaxinar como sería
09:18
to go into the future.
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chegar ao futuro.
09:20
And I'll show you some of these tools right here.
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Vouvos mostrar algunha destas ferramentas.
09:23
The first is called the distribution builder.
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A primeira chámase o construtor de distribución.
09:25
It shows people what the future might be like
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Amósalle á xente como vai ser o futuro
09:28
by showing them a hundred equally probable outcomes
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mostrándolles un cento de resultados probables
09:31
that might be obtained in the future.
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que se poden obter no futuro.
09:33
Each outcome is shown by one of these markers,
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Cada resultado preséntao un destes indicadores,
09:36
and each sits on a row
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e cada un sitúase nunha fila
09:38
that represents a level of wealth and retirement.
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que representa o nivel de riqueza e xubilación.
09:40
Being up at the top
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Se está na cima
09:42
means that you're enjoying a high income in retirement.
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quere dicir que estás gozando dunha grande renta na xubilación.
09:44
Being down at the bottom
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Se está abaixo
09:46
means that you're struggling to make ends meet.
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quere dicir que o estás pasando mal para chegar a fin de mes.
09:48
When you make an investment,
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Cando fas un investimento,
09:50
what you're really saying is, "I accept
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o que en realidade dis é: "Acepto
09:52
that any one of these 100 things
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que calquera destas 100 cousas
09:54
could happen to me and determine my wealth."
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me poidan pasar e determinen a miña riqueza".
09:56
Now you can try to move your outcomes around.
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Podes intentar cambiar os teus resultados.
09:59
You can try to manipulate your fate, like this person is doing,
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Podes intentar manipular o teu destino, como fai esta persoa,
10:02
but it costs you something to do it.
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pero facelo vaiche custar algo.
10:04
It means that you have to save more today.
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Quere dicir que tes que aforrar máis hoxe.
10:08
Once you find an investment that you're happy with,
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Unha vez que achas un investimento co que estás contento,
10:10
what people do is they click "done"
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o que a xente fai é clicar en "feito"
10:12
and the markers begin to disappear,
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e os indicadores comezan a desaparecer,
10:14
slowly, one by one.
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a modo, un por un.
10:16
It simulates what it is like to invest in something
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Simula como sería investir en algo
10:18
and to watch that investment pan out.
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e ver concluír ese investimento.
10:21
At the end, there will only be one marker left standing
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Ao final, só quedará un indicador
10:24
and it will determine our wealth in retirement.
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que ha determinar a nosa riqueza ao xubilarnos.
10:27
Yes, this person retired
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Si, esta persoa xubilouse
10:29
at 150 percent of their working income in retirement.
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co 150% da súa renda de traballador na xubilación.
10:33
They're making more money while retired
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Fan máis cartos cando están xubilados
10:35
than they were making while they were working.
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có que facían mentres traballaban.
10:37
If you're like most people,
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Se sodes como a maioría da xente,
10:39
just seeing that gave you a small sense of elation and joy --
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en busca do que vos dea unha pequena sensación de ledicia,
10:43
just to think about making
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pensade en facer
10:45
50 percent more money in retirement than before.
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o 50% máis de cartos na xubilación ca antes.
10:48
However, had you ended up on the very bottom,
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Porén, se acabastes na parte máis baixa,
10:50
it might have given you a slight sense
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pode que vos dea unha lixeira sensación
10:52
of dread and/or nausea
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de terror e/ou náusea,
10:54
thinking about struggling to get by in retirement.
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ao pensar en como saír adiante na xubilación.
10:58
By using this tool over and over
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Empregando esta ferramenta unha e outra vez
11:00
and simulating outcome after outcome,
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e simulando resultado tras resultado,
11:03
people can understand
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a xente pode entender
11:05
that the investments and savings that they undertake today
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que os investimentos e aforros que fagan hoxe
11:08
determine their well-being in the future.
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han determinar o seu benestar no futuro.
11:10
Now people are motivated through emotions,
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Agora a xente déixase levar polas emocións,
11:13
but different people find different things motivating.
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pero xente distinta acha distintas cousas que a motiven.
11:16
This is a simulation
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Esta é unha simulación
11:19
that uses graphics,
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que emprega gráficos,
11:21
but other people find motivating what money can buy,
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pero outra xente motívase co que os cartos poden mercar,
11:23
not just numbers.
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non só con números.
11:25
So here I made a distribution builder
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Fixen un construtor de distribución
11:27
where instead of showing numerical outcomes,
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onde en lugar de amosar resultados numéricos,
11:30
I show people what those outcomes will get you,
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amósalle á xente os resultados que lle levarán
11:33
in particular apartments that you can afford
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a ter un apartamento
11:35
if you're retiring on 3,000, 2,500,
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se se xubila con 3000, 2500,
11:38
2,000 dollars per month and so on.
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2000 dólares por mes e así sucesivamente.
11:41
As you move down the ladder of apartments,
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Segundo baixas o nivel do apartamento,
11:43
you see that they get worse and worse.
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ves como vai de peor en peor.
11:46
Some of them look like places I lived in as a graduate student.
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Algúns parécense a apartamentos nos que vivín cando era estudante.
11:50
And as you get to the very bottom,
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E cando chegas ao final,
11:54
you're faced with the unfortunate reality
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enfróntaste coa infeliz realidade
11:56
that if you don't save anything for retirement,
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de que se non aforraches para a túa xubilación,
11:58
you won't be able to afford any housing at all.
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non serás quen de ter ningún tipo de casa.
12:01
Those are actual pictures of actual apartments
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Estas son fotografías de apartamentos reais
12:03
renting for that amount
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alugados por unha cantidade
12:05
as advertised on the Internet.
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anunciada en Internet.
12:07
The last thing I'll show you,
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O último que vos hei amosar,
12:09
the last behavioral time machine,
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a última máquina do tempo comportamental,
12:11
is something that I created with Hal Hershfield,
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é algo que creei xunto con Hal Hershfield,
12:14
who was introduced to me by my coauthor on a previous project,
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que coñecín grazas ao meu coautor dun proxecto anterior,
12:17
Bill Sharpe.
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Bill Sharpe.
12:19
And what it is
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Isto é
12:21
is an exploration into virtual reality.
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unha exploración dentro da realidade virtual.
12:23
So what we do is we take pictures of people --
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O que facemos é tomar fotos da xente,
12:26
in this case, college-age people --
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neste caso, estudantes,
12:28
and we use software to age them
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e usamos un programa para envellecelos
12:30
and show these people what they'll look like
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e amosarlles como han ser
12:33
when they're 60, 70, 80 years old.
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cando teñan 60, 70, 80 anos.
12:35
And we try to test
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E intentamos comprobar
12:37
whether actually assisting your imagination
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se en realidade estimular a túa imaxinación
12:40
by looking at the face of your future self
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cando ollas a túa cara no futuro
12:42
can change you investment behavior.
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pode mudar o teu comportamento á hora de investir.
12:44
So this is one of our experiments.
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Este é un dos nosos experimentos.
12:47
Here we see the face of the young subject on the left.
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Vemos a face dun mozo á esquerda.
12:50
He's given a control
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Leva un control
12:52
that allows him to adjust his savings rate.
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que lle permite regular o seu índice de aforros.
12:54
As he moves his savings rate down,
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Cando facemos baixar os seus aforros,
12:56
it means that he's saving zero
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quere dicir que non está aforrando nada,
12:58
when it's all the way here at the left.
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cando está á esquerda de todo.
13:00
You can see his current annual income --
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Podedes ver a súa renda anual.
13:02
this is the percentage of his paycheck that he can take home today --
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Esta é a porcentaxe de soldo que leva hoxe á casa,
13:05
is quite high, 91 percent,
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é bastante alta, 91 por cento,
13:07
but his retirement income is quite low.
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pero a súa renda para a xubilación é bastante baixa.
13:09
He's going to retire on 44 percent
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Vaise xubilar co 44%
13:11
of what he earned while he was working.
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do que gañaba mentres traballaba.
13:14
If he saves the maximum legal amount,
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Se aforra a cantidade máxima legal
13:17
his retirement income goes up,
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os seus ingresos na xubilación medran,
13:19
but he's unhappy
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pero el é infeliz
13:21
because now he has less money on the left-hand side to spend today.
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porque ten menos cartos que gastar hoxe.
13:25
Other conditions show people the future self.
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Outras condicións amósanlle á xente o eu futuro.
13:28
And from the future self's point of view, everything is in reverse.
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E dende o punto de vista do eu futuro, todo está ao revés.
13:31
If you save very little,
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Se aforras pouco
13:33
the future self is unhappy
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o eu futuro é infeliz
13:35
living on 44 percent of the income.
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se ten que vivir co 44% dos ingresos.
13:38
Whereas if the present self saves a lot,
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Mentres que se o presente aforra moito,
13:41
the future self is delighted,
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o eu futuro está encantado,
13:43
where the income is close up near 100 percent.
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cando os ingresos están preto do 100%.
13:46
To bring this to a wider audience,
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Para transmitir isto a unha audiencia máis ampla,
13:49
I've been working with Hal and Allianz
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estiven traballando con Hal e Allianz
13:52
to create something we call the behavioral time machine,
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coa fin de crear o que chamamos a máquina do tempo comportamental
13:55
in which you not only get to see yourself in the future,
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onde non só te ves no futuro,
13:58
but you get to see anticipated emotional reactions
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se non que tamén ves anticipadamente as reaccións emocionais
14:01
to different levels of retirement wealth.
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para diferentes niveis de riqueza na xubilación.
14:04
So for instance,
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Así que por exemplo,
14:06
here is somebody using the tool.
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aquí hai alguén que emprega a ferramenta.
14:08
And just watch the facial expressions
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Observade as expresións faciais
14:10
as they move the slider.
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cando movemos a frecha.
14:12
The younger face gets happier and happier, saving nothing.
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O rostro novo ponse cada vez máis feliz cando non aforra nada.
14:14
The older face is miserable.
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O rostro ancián tórnase miserable.
14:16
And slowly, slowly we're bringing it up to a moderate savings rate.
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E pouco a pouco subimos a frecha a un nivel de aforros medio.
14:18
And then it's a high savings rate.
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E logo a un nivel alto.
14:20
The younger face is getting unhappy.
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O rostro novo tórnase infeliz.
14:22
The older face is quite pleased
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O rostro ancián pola contra está máis satisfeito
14:24
with the decision.
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coa decisión.
14:27
We're going to see if this has an effect on what people do.
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Imos ver se isto afecta ao que fai a xente.
14:29
And what's nice about it
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O mellor disto
14:31
is it's not something that biasing people actually,
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é que non condiciona ás persoas,
14:34
because as one face smiles,
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xa que cando un rostro sorrí
14:36
the other face frowns.
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o outro torce o fociño.
14:38
It's not telling you which way to put the slider,
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Non vos di onde poñer a frecha,
14:40
it's just reminding you that you are
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só vos lembra que estades
14:43
connected to and legally tied to
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conectados e legalmente atados
14:45
this future self.
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a este eu futuro.
14:47
Your decisions today are going to determine its well-being.
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As vosas decisións hoxe han determinar o voso benestar.
14:50
And that's something that's easy to forget.
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E iso é algo doado de esquecer.
14:53
This use of virtual reality
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O uso desta realidade virtual
14:56
is not just good for making people look older.
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non só é bo para que a xente se vexa cando sexa maior.
14:58
There are programs you can get
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Hai programas que podedes conseguir
15:00
to see how people might look
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para ver como a xente se vai ver
15:02
if they smoke, if they get too much exposure to the sun,
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se fuman, se lles dá moito o sol,
15:05
if they gain weight and so on.
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se gañan peso e demais.
15:07
And what's good is,
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E o bo é,
15:09
unlike in the experiments that Hal and myself ran with Russ Smith,
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que ó contrario dos experimentos que Hal e eu levamos a cabo xunto con Russ Smith,
15:12
you don't have to program these by yourself
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non tedes que programalos vós
15:14
in order to see the virtual reality.
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para chegar a ver a realidade virtual.
15:17
There are applications you can get on smartphones for just a few dollars
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Hai aplicacións que podedes conseguir en smartphones por uns poucos dólares
15:20
that do the same thing.
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que fan o mesmo.
15:22
This is actually a picture of Hal, my coauthor.
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Esta é unha fotografía de Hal, o meu coautor.
15:24
You might recognize him from the previous demos.
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Recoñecédelo polas tomas anteriores.
15:27
And just for kicks we ran his picture
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E só por diversión, pasamos esta foto
15:30
through the balding, aging and weight gain software
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a través dunha aplicación para perder pelo, envellecer e gañar peso
15:33
to see how he would look.
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para ver que aspecto tería.
15:35
Hal is here, so I think we owe it to him as well as yourself
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Hal está aquí, así que acho que lle debo a el e a vós
15:38
to disabuse you of that last image.
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esquecer a última imaxe.
15:42
And I'll close it there.
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E vouno deixar aquí.
15:44
On behalf of Hal and myself,
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No nome de Hal e meu,
15:46
I wish all the best to your present and future selves.
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deséxoves o mellor para os seus eus presentes e futuros.
15:48
Thank you.
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Grazas
15:50
(Applause)
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(Aplausos)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Daniel Goldstein - Behavioral economistDaniel Goldstein studies how we make decisions about our financial selves -- both now and in the future,
Why you should listen
Daniel Goldstein studies decision-making -- especially how humans make economic and social decisions over the course of our lives, and how we can give ourselves the right incentives, reminders, and rules of thumb to make long-term smart choices rather than short-term fun choices. He runs the blog Decision Science News. Dan is Principal Researcher at Microsoft Research, a former professor at London Business School, and member of the academic advisory board of the Behavioural Insights Team in the UK (aka the Nudge Unit). In 2015, he became President of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making, the largest academic society in Behavioral Economics.
Daniel Goldstein | Speaker | TED.com