ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Daniel Goldstein - Behavioral economist
Daniel Goldstein studies how we make decisions about our financial selves -- both now and in the future,

Why you should listen

Daniel Goldstein studies decision-making -- especially how humans make economic and social decisions over the course of our lives, and how we can give ourselves the right incentives, reminders, and rules of thumb to make long-term smart choices rather than short-term fun choices. He runs the blog Decision Science News. Dan is Principal Researcher at Microsoft Research, a former professor at London Business School, and member of the academic advisory board of the Behavioural Insights Team in the UK (aka the Nudge Unit). In 2015, he became President of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making, the largest academic society in Behavioral Economics.

More profile about the speaker
Daniel Goldstein | Speaker | TED.com
TEDSalon NY2011

Daniel Goldstein: The battle between your present and future self

丹尼尔・戈尔德史丹:当下的你和未来自我的战争

Filmed:
2,548,111 views

每天我们都做出未来我们或利或弊的决定。(这次就不用牙线了把?)丹尼尔・戈尔德史丹的有办法帮我们预期未来的自己,为未来做出明智的选择。
- Behavioral economist
Daniel Goldstein studies how we make decisions about our financial selves -- both now and in the future, Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:15
Do you remember记得 the story故事
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还记不记得
00:17
of Odysseus奥德修斯 and the Sirens警报器
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高中或是初中时
00:19
from high school学校 or junior初级 high school学校?
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奧德修斯和塞壬的故事?
00:21
There was this hero英雄, Odysseus奥德修斯, who's谁是 heading标题 back home
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有这么个英雄,奧德修斯
00:24
after the Trojan木马 War战争.
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从特洛伊战争返回
00:26
And he's standing常设 on the deck甲板 of his ship,
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他站在战船的甲板上
00:28
he's talking to his first mate伴侣,
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和大副说着话
00:30
and he's saying,
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他说:
00:32
"Tomorrow明天, we will sail past过去 those rocks岩石,
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“明天我们驶过那些岩石
00:35
and on those rocks岩石 sit some beautiful美丽 women妇女
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岩石上会坐者一群美女
00:37
called Sirens警报器.
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她们是塞壬
00:39
And these women妇女 sing an enchanting妖娆 song歌曲,
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她们会唱首摄人心魄的歌
00:42
a song歌曲 so alluring诱人
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会令
00:44
that all sailors水手 who hear it
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听到歌声的水手着迷
00:46
crash紧急 into the rocks岩石 and die."
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船撞上岩石而亡
00:48
Now you would expect期望, given特定 that,
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你会想 既然如此
00:50
that they would choose选择 an alternate备用 route路线 around the Sirens警报器,
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他们应该另找一条航线避开塞壬
00:53
but instead代替 Odysseus奥德修斯 says,
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但是奧德修斯说
00:56
"I want to hear that song歌曲.
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”我想听到那首歌
00:58
And so what I'm going to do
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我会用蜡
01:00
is I'm going to pour wax in the ears耳朵
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把你和其他所有人的
01:02
of you and all the men男人 --
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耳朵
01:04
stay with me --
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都封上-
01:06
so that you can't hear the song歌曲,
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这样你们就听不见这歌了
01:08
and then I'm going to have you tie领带 me to the mast桅杆
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你们把我绑在桅杆上
01:11
so that I can listen
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这样我就能听到歌
01:13
and we can all sail by unaffected未受影响."
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并且航行不受影响
01:15
So this is a captain队长
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这个船长
01:18
putting the life of every一切 single person on the ship at risk风险
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置全船人的危险于不顾
01:20
so that he can hear a song歌曲.
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就为了自己听首歌
01:22
And I'd like to think if this was the case案件,
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我想要是这种状况
01:24
they probably大概 would have rehearsed排练 it a few少数 times.
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他们应该事先练习几次
01:27
Odysseus奥德修斯 would have said, "Okay, let's do a dry run.
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奧德修斯会说:“好,我们试试。
01:30
You tie领带 me to the mast桅杆, and I'm going to beg and plead求情.
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你把我绑在桅杆上,我怎么央求
01:33
And no matter what I say, you cannot不能 untie解开 me from the mast桅杆.
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不管说什么你都不要解开绳子
01:35
All right, so tie领带 me to the mast桅杆."
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好,现在把我绑上桅杆吧。”
01:37
And the first mate伴侣 takes a rope
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大副取了绳子
01:39
and ties联系 Odysseus奥德修斯 to the mast桅杆 in a nice不错 knot.
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把奧德修斯牢牢绑在桅杆上
01:42
And Odysseus奥德修斯 does his best最好 job工作 playacting演戏
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奧德修斯拼命假装求情
01:44
and says, "Untie解开 me. Untie解开 me.
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说:“放开我吧。放开我吧。
01:46
I want to hear that song歌曲. Untie解开 me."
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我想听那首歌。放开我吧。”
01:48
And the first mate伴侣 wisely明智 resists光刻胶
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大副会很明智地拒绝
01:50
and doesn't untie解开 Odysseus奥德修斯.
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不会解开奧德修斯
01:52
And then Odysseus奥德修斯 says, "I see that you can get it.
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然后奧德修斯说;“好,你能胜任这个任务。
01:55
All right, untie解开 me now and we'll get some dinner晚餐."
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好,解开我咱们吃晚饭去。”
01:58
And the first mate伴侣 hesitates犹豫.
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大副迟疑了
02:00
He's like, "Is this still the rehearsal排演,
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“我们还在练习呢
02:02
or should I untie解开 him?"
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还是我就解开绳子呢?”
02:05
And the first mate伴侣 thinks,
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大副想
02:07
"Well, I guess猜测 at some point the rehearsal排演 has to end结束."
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“好吧,排练总有结束的时候”
02:10
So he unties解开 Odysseus奥德修斯, and Odysseus奥德修斯 flips翻转 out.
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他解开奧德修斯,但是奧德修斯大发雷霆
02:13
He's like, "You idiot白痴. You moron白痴.
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“你个蠢货,你个白痴。
02:15
If you do that tomorrow明天, I'll be dead, you'll你会 be dead,
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明天你要这么干,我们都死定了
02:17
every一切 single one of the men男人 will be dead.
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每个人都死定了
02:19
Now just don't untie解开 me no matter what."
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不管我说什么都不能解开!”
02:22
He throws the first mate伴侣 to the ground地面.
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他把大副摔倒在地
02:24
This repeats重复 itself本身 through通过 the night --
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他们就这么折腾了一夜-
02:26
rehearsal排演, tying搭售 to the mast桅杆,
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排练,绑在桅杆上
02:28
conning精读 his way out of it,
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哄大副解开绳子
02:30
beating跳动 the poor较差的 first mate伴侣 up mercilessly无情.
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毫不留情地殴打大副
02:33
Hilarity欢闹 ensues随之而来.
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闹剧就来了
02:36
Tying搭售 yourself你自己 to a mast桅杆
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把自己绑到桅杆上
02:38
is perhaps也许 the oldest最老的 written书面 example
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大概是最早的
02:40
of what psychologists心理学家 call a commitment承诺 device设备.
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心理学家称为承诺手段的书面记录了
02:43
A commitment承诺 device设备 is a decision决定 that you make
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承诺手段是你在冷静状态下
02:46
with a cool head to bind捆绑 yourself你自己
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做出的决定来约束自己
02:49
so that you don't do something regrettable遗憾
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以防在冲动之下
02:51
when you have a hot head.
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做出事后后悔的事情
02:54
Because there's two heads inside one person
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你想想,人内心
02:56
when you think about it.
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有两种状态
02:58
Scholars学者 have long invoked调用 this metaphor隐喻 of two selves自我
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当涉及到诱惑的问题时
03:01
when it comes to questions问题 of temptation诱惑.
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学者们早就用了两个自我的比喻
03:04
There is first, the present当下 self.
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第一是当下的自我
03:07
This is like Odysseus奥德修斯 when he's hearing听力 the song歌曲.
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就象是奥德修斯 他一听到这歌
03:10
He just wants to get to the front面前 row.
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就想去前排占个好位子
03:12
He just thinks about the here and now and the immediate即时 gratification享乐.
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只想着此时此刻和当下的满足
03:15
But then there's this other self, the future未来 self.
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但是另一个自我,未来的自我
03:18
This is Odysseus奥德修斯 as an old man
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作为一个老人的奥德修斯
03:20
who wants nothing more than to retire退休 in a sunny晴朗 villa别墅
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他只想在远离伊萨卡的别墅里
03:23
with his wife妻子 Penelope佩内洛普
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和妻子佩罗普过退休生活
03:25
outside of Ithaca伊萨卡 -- the other one.
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这是另一个自我
03:31
So why do we need commitment承诺 devices设备?
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那么为什么我们需要承诺手段呢?
03:35
Well resisting抵制 temptation诱惑 is hard,
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因为诱惑难以抗拒
03:37
as the 19th century世纪 English英语 economist经济学家
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19世纪的英国经济学家
03:40
Nassau拿骚 William威廉 Senior前辈 said,
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老纳索威廉姆说
03:42
"To abstain避免 from the enjoyment享受 which哪一个 is in our power功率,
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“放弃我们能得到的享受
03:45
or to seek寻求 distant遥远 rather than immediate即时 results结果,
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或者追寻遥远而不是眼下的结果
03:48
are among其中 the most painful痛苦 exertions卖力
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是人类意志中
03:50
of the human人的 will."
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最痛苦的事情之一。”
03:52
If you set goals目标 for yourself你自己 and you're like a lot of other people,
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如果你为自己设定目标,并且你跟普通人一样
03:55
you probably大概 realize实现
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也许你会意识到
03:57
it's not that your goals目标 are physically物理 impossible不可能
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不是定的目标高不可攀
03:59
that's keeping保持 you from achieving实现 them,
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而是缺乏自律
04:01
it's that you lack缺乏 the self-discipline自律 to stick to them.
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去坚持下来
04:04
It's physically物理 possible可能 to lose失去 weight重量.
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减肥是现实可行的
04:06
It's physically物理 possible可能 to exercise行使 more.
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增加运动是现实可行的
04:09
But resisting抵制 temptation诱惑
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但是抵抗诱惑
04:11
is hard.
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很难
04:13
The other reason原因
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另一个
04:15
that it's difficult to resist temptation诱惑
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难以抵抗诱惑的原因是
04:18
is because it's an unequal不等 battle战斗
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当下的自我和未来的自我之间
04:21
between之间 the present当下 self and the future未来 self.
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不平等的战争
04:23
I mean, let's face面对 it, the present当下 self is present当下.
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当下的自我活在现在
04:25
It's in control控制. It's in power功率 right now.
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控制一些
04:28
It has these strong强大, heroic英勇 arms武器
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这个自我有强大英勇的胳膊
04:30
that can lift电梯 doughnuts甜甜圈 into your mouth.
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抓起甜甜圈送到嘴里去
04:32
And the future未来 self is not even around.
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而未来的自我都不在场
04:35
It's off in the future未来. It's weak.
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它还在远远的未来,没什么力量
04:38
It doesn't even have a lawyer律师 present当下.
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它连律师都不在场
04:40
There's nobody没有人 to stick up for the future未来 self.
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没人会为了未来自我而争辩
04:42
And so the present当下 self can trounce打败
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所以当下的自我可以击败
04:45
all over its dreams.
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未来的所有梦想
04:47
So there's this battle战斗 between之间 the two selves自我 that's being存在 fought战斗,
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所以在这两个斗争的自我之间
04:51
and we need commitment承诺 devices设备
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要有承诺手段
04:53
to level水平 the playing播放 field领域 between之间 the two.
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来平衡二者的力量
04:56
Now I'm a big fan风扇 of commitment承诺 devices设备 actually其实.
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我很拥护承诺设备
04:59
Tying搭售 yourself你自己 to the mast桅杆 is the oldest最老的 one, but there are other ones那些
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把自己绑到桅杆上是最古老的一个例子,还有其他的
05:02
such这样 as locking锁定 a credit信用 card away with a key
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把信用卡锁起来
05:06
or not bringing使 junk破烂 food餐饮 into the house so you won't惯于 eat it
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不把垃圾食品带回家而减少摄入
05:09
or unplugging拔出 your Internet互联网 connection连接
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断网
05:11
so you can use your computer电脑.
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来保证使用电脑
05:13
I was creating创建 commitment承诺 devices设备 of my own拥有
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在我自己知道承诺手段之前
05:15
long before I knew知道 what they were.
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我就在创造他们了
05:17
So when I was a starving挨饿 post-doc博士后
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当我还是哥伦比亚大学的
05:19
at Columbia哥伦比亚 University大学,
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苦逼博士后时
05:21
I was deep in a publish-or-perish发布 - 或 - 灭亡 phase of my career事业.
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我还在“发表(论文)或淘汰”中挣扎
05:24
I had to write five pages网页 a day
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我得为了文章
05:26
towards papers文件
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一天写五页
05:28
or I would have to give up five dollars美元.
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不然就得丢掉5块钱
05:31
And when you try to execute执行 these commitment承诺 devices设备,
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当你得执行这些承诺手段的时候
05:34
you realize实现 the devil魔鬼 is really in the details细节.
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你就意识到了执行的细节太邪恶了
05:36
Because it's not that easy简单 to get rid摆脱 of five dollars美元.
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因为要丢掉五块钱不那么容易
05:39
I mean, you can't burn烧伤 it; that's illegal非法.
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你不能烧了,那是犯法
05:42
And I thought, well I could give it to a charity慈善机构
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我想 我可以捐给慈善机构
05:44
or give it to my wife妻子 or something like that.
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或者给我老婆,等等
05:46
But then I thought, oh, I'm sending发出 myself mixed messages消息.
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但是转念一想,我这是在混淆视线
05:48
Because not writing写作 is bad, but giving to charity慈善机构 is good.
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因为不写作是坏事,但慈善是好事
05:51
So then I would kind of justify辩解 not writing写作
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这样赠予就把不写作
05:53
by giving a gift礼品.
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变得合理了
05:55
And then I kind of flipped翻转 that around and thought,
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然后我想了想
05:57
well I could give it to the neo-Nazis新纳粹.
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我可以把它给新纳粹分子
05:59
But then I was like, that's more bad than writing写作 is good,
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但是,这比不写作更坏
06:02
and so that wouldn't不会 work.
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所以这个方法行不通
06:04
So ultimately最终, I just decided决定
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最后我决定
06:06
I would leave离开 it in an envelope信封 on the subway地铁.
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我把它放进信封留到地铁上
06:09
Sometimes有时 a good person would find it,
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有时候是好人捡到
06:11
sometimes有时 a bad person would find it.
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有时候是坏人捡到
06:13
On average平均, it was just a completely全然 pointless无意义 exchange交换 of money
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总的来说 只是没有意义的但是我会后悔的
06:16
that I would regret后悔.
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丢钱行为
06:18
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
06:21
Such这样 it is with commitment承诺 devices设备.
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这就是承诺手段
06:24
But despite尽管 my like for them,
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虽然我很喜欢它
06:28
there's two nagging唠叨 concerns关注
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但是对于承诺手段
06:30
that I've always had about commitment承诺 devices设备,
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我仍有两个顾虑
06:32
and you might威力 feel this if you use them yourself你自己.
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在使用的时候可能会感受到
06:34
So the first is,
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首先就是
06:36
when you've got one of these devices设备 going,
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当你使用这些手段的时候
06:38
such这样 as this contract合同 to write everyday每天 or pay工资,
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比如说不写就付钱
06:41
it's just a constant不变 reminder提醒
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这只是会不断地提醒自己
06:43
that you have no self-control自我控制.
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没有自控能力
06:45
You're just telling告诉 yourself你自己, "Without没有 you, commitment承诺 device设备,
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你只是在告诉自己,“没有承诺手段,
06:47
I am nothing, I have no self-discipline自律."
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你会一事无成,你不能自律。”
06:50
And then when you're ever in a situation情况
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这样在一个
06:52
where you don't have a commitment承诺 device设备 in place地点 --
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没有承诺手段的情况下-
06:55
like, "Oh my God, that person's人的 offering me a doughnut甜甜圈,
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比如“天哪,那家伙要给我一个甜甜圈
06:57
and I have no defense防御 mechanism机制," --
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我可没有防御机制”
06:59
you just eat it.
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你就给吃了
07:01
So I don't like the way that they take the power功率 away from you.
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所以我不喜欢承诺手段让我们失去能力
07:04
I think self-discipline自律 is something, it's like a muscle肌肉.
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我想自律就象是肌肉
07:07
The more you exercise行使 it, the stronger it gets得到.
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锻炼越多就越强壮
07:10
The other problem问题 with commitment承诺 devices设备
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承诺手段的另一个问题就是
07:12
is that you can always weasel黄鼠狼 your way out of them.
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你可以很容易耍滑头就逃过
07:15
You say, "Well, of course课程 I can't write today今天,
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你说:“哎呀,今天写不了啦
07:17
because I'm giving a TEDTalkTED演讲 and I have five media媒体 interviews面试,
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我有个TED演讲,还得接受5个媒体访问
07:20
and then I'm going to a cocktail鸡尾酒 party派对 and then I'll be drunk after that.
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然后得去个鸡尾酒晚会 然后我肯定就喝醉了
07:23
And so there's no way that this is going to work."
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所以我今天肯定写不了。”
07:26
So in effect影响, you are like Odysseus奥德修斯 and the first mate伴侣
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这样一来,你就象奥德修斯和大副
07:28
in one person.
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二者合一
07:30
You're putting yourself你自己, you're binding捆绑 yourself你自己,
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你把自己绑起来
07:33
and you're weaselingweaseling your way out of it,
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然后耍个手段逃脱了
07:35
and then you're beating跳动 yourself你自己 up afterwards之后.
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然后事后就痛打自己
07:37
So I've been working加工
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为了寻找
07:39
for about a decade now
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承诺手段之外的方法
07:41
on finding发现 other ways方法
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来改善人们
07:43
to change更改 people's人们 relationship关系 to the future未来 self
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与未来自我的关系
07:45
without using运用 commitment承诺 devices设备.
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我努力了近十年
07:47
In particular特定, I'm interested有兴趣 in the relationship关系
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特别地,我对财政意义上的
07:50
to the future未来 financial金融 self.
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未来自我关系感兴趣
07:54
And this is a timely及时 issue问题.
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这是时间跨度的话题
07:56
I'm talking about the topic话题 of saving保存.
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我要说的是就是储蓄
07:58
Now saving保存 is a classic经典 two selves自我 problem问题.
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储蓄是个典型的两个自我的问题
08:00
The present当下 self does not want to save保存 at all.
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当下的自我完全不想储蓄
08:03
It wants to consume消耗.
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它要消费
08:05
Whereas the future未来 self wants the present当下 self to save保存.
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但是未来的自我要现在的自我储蓄
08:09
So this is a timely及时 problem问题.
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所以这是个时间跨度的问题
08:11
We look at the savings rate
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看看储蓄率
08:13
and it has been declining下降 since以来 the 1950s.
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自50年代以来一直下跌
08:16
At the same相同 time, the Retirement退休 Risk风险 Index指数,
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同时,退休风险指数
08:19
the chance机会 of not being存在 able能够 to meet遇到 your needs需求 in retirement退休,
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-在退休时无法有足够的积累
08:22
has been increasing增加.
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一直在上升
08:24
And we're at a situation情况 now
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我们现在的状况是
08:26
where for every一切 three baby宝宝 boomers,
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按照麦肯锡全球研究中心预计
08:28
the McKinsey麦肯锡 Global全球 Institute研究所 predicts预测
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婴儿潮的人群里
08:30
that two will not be able能够 to meet遇到 their pre-retirement退休前 needs需求
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每三个就有两个无法完成退休前
08:34
while they're in retirement退休.
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为退休生活的积累
08:36
So what can we do about this?
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我们能做些什么呢?
08:39
There's a philosopher哲学家, Derek德里克 Parfit帕菲特,
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有个哲学家 德瑞克巴菲特
08:42
who said some words that were inspiring鼓舞人心 to my coauthors合作者 and I.
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他说了一些话对我和我的合作者很有启发
08:45
He said that, "We might威力 neglect忽略 our future未来 selves自我
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他说:“我们忽视未来自我
08:48
because of some failure失败 of belief信仰 or imagination想像力."
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是因为没有信念或缺乏想像。”
08:52
That is to say,
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也就是说
08:54
we somehow不知何故 might威力 not believe that we're going to get old,
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我们不知怎么的不相信自己会变老
08:57
or we might威力 not be able能够 to imagine想像
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或者我们没法想像
08:59
that we're going to get old some day.
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有天我们会变老
09:01
On the one hand, it sounds声音 ridiculous荒谬.
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一方面这听起来很可笑
09:03
Of course课程, we know that we're going to get old.
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当然我们知道自己会变老
09:05
But aren't there things that we believe and don't believe at the same相同 time?
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但是有没有可能有些东西我们相信的同时又不相信呢?
09:08
So my coauthors合作者 and I have used computers电脑,
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我和我的合作者用电脑
09:11
the greatest最大 tool工具 of our time,
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这个时代最伟大的工具
09:13
to assist助攻 people's人们 imagination想像力
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来帮助人们想像
09:15
and help them imagine想像 what it might威力 be like
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想像未来可能的
09:18
to go into the future未来.
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样子
09:20
And I'll show显示 you some of these tools工具 right here.
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在这儿我会展示几个
09:23
The first is called the distribution分配 builder建设者.
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第一个是“分配生成器”
09:25
It shows节目 people what the future未来 might威力 be like
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可以向人们展示未来可能的状况
09:28
by showing展示 them a hundred equally一样 probable可能 outcomes结果
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它能显示你未来可能取得的
09:31
that might威力 be obtained获得 in the future未来.
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一百种同等概率的结果
09:33
Each outcome结果 is shown显示 by one of these markers标记,
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每一种结果都用这些记号来表示
09:36
and each sits坐镇 on a row
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各排上的每一个单位
09:38
that represents代表 a level水平 of wealth财富 and retirement退休.
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代表一定程度的财富和退休期
09:40
Being存在 up at the top最佳
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位置越高
09:42
means手段 that you're enjoying享受 a high income收入 in retirement退休.
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也就意味着你可以享受富足的晚年
09:44
Being存在 down at the bottom底部
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越往下
09:46
means手段 that you're struggling奋斗的 to make ends结束 meet遇到.
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也就是你得努力糊口
09:48
When you make an investment投资,
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如果你进行投资
09:50
what you're really saying is, "I accept接受
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如果说你承认
09:52
that any one of these 100 things
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这一百件事
09:54
could happen发生 to me and determine确定 my wealth财富."
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有可能发生在自己身上并最终决定我的财富
09:56
Now you can try to move移动 your outcomes结果 around.
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你就可以把收入进行分配了
09:59
You can try to manipulate操作 your fate命运, like this person is doing,
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你可以象这个人一样修改你的命运
10:02
but it costs成本 you something to do it.
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但是是有代价的
10:04
It means手段 that you have to save保存 more today今天.
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也就是说你得在现在储蓄更多
10:08
Once一旦 you find an investment投资 that you're happy快乐 with,
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一旦发现了一个感兴趣的投资
10:10
what people do is they click点击 "doneDONE"
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你就点击“完成”
10:12
and the markers标记 begin开始 to disappear消失,
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然后这些记号慢慢得
10:14
slowly慢慢地, one by one.
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一个接一个消失
10:16
It simulates可模拟 what it is like to invest投资 in something
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这就象是投资了什么
10:18
and to watch that investment投资 pan out.
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然后坐收红利一样
10:21
At the end结束, there will only be one marker标记 left standing常设
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最后将只有一个标记剩下来
10:24
and it will determine确定 our wealth财富 in retirement退休.
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这就决定了退休时的财富
10:27
Yes, this person retired退休
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这个人
10:29
at 150 percent百分 of their working加工 income收入 in retirement退休.
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在退休时能有工作收入的百分之一百五十的入帐
10:33
They're making制造 more money while retired退休
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他们退休了比工作的时候
10:35
than they were making制造 while they were working加工.
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挣的钱还要多
10:37
If you're like most people,
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大多数人
10:39
just seeing眼看 that gave you a small sense of elation高昂 and joy喜悦 --
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看到这都会有点喜不自禁
10:43
just to think about making制造
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一想到自己退休了
10:45
50 percent百分 more money in retirement退休 than before.
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能比工作的时候还多挣百分之五十
10:48
However然而, had you ended结束 up on the very bottom底部,
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但是 如果最后的结果是在底部
10:50
it might威力 have given特定 you a slight轻微 sense
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这应该会让你有点
10:52
of dread恐惧 and/or nausea恶心
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担心或者不寒而栗
10:54
thinking思维 about struggling奋斗的 to get by in retirement退休.
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一想到退休了还得挣扎过活的话
10:58
By using运用 this tool工具 over and over
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通过不停地使用这个工具
11:00
and simulating模拟 outcome结果 after outcome结果,
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来预测未来的结果
11:03
people can understand理解
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人们能够意识到
11:05
that the investments投资 and savings that they undertake承担 today今天
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今天进行的储蓄决定了
11:08
determine确定 their well-being福利 in the future未来.
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明天的生活质量
11:10
Now people are motivated动机 through通过 emotions情绪,
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人们常受情绪而激发
11:13
but different不同 people find different不同 things motivating激励.
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但是激发每个人的事物却往往不一样
11:16
This is a simulation模拟
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这个工具
11:19
that uses使用 graphics图像,
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使用了图片
11:21
but other people find motivating激励 what money can buy购买,
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很多人不大受代表钱的数字而影响
11:23
not just numbers数字.
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但是钱能买到的东西可以
11:25
So here I made制作 a distribution分配 builder建设者
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这个分配生成器
11:27
where instead代替 of showing展示 numerical数字的 outcomes结果,
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显示的不是数字
11:30
I show显示 people what those outcomes结果 will get you,
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而是具体你能买到的东西
11:33
in particular特定 apartments公寓 that you can afford给予
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比如 你的每个月的退休金能有
11:35
if you're retiring退休的 on 3,000, 2,500,
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三千,两千五,两千的话
11:38
2,000 dollars美元 per month and so on.
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这是你买得起的公寓
11:41
As you move移动 down the ladder阶梯 of apartments公寓,
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随着排名的下降
11:43
you see that they get worse更差 and worse更差.
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能看出来质量越来越差
11:46
Some of them look like places地方 I lived生活 in as a graduate毕业 student学生.
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有一些看上去象我作为研究生的时候住过的地方
11:50
And as you get to the very bottom底部,
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而最底下
11:54
you're faced面对 with the unfortunate不幸的 reality现实
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如果你退休的时候一无所有
11:56
that if you don't save保存 anything for retirement退休,
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那就得面对老无所居的
11:58
you won't惯于 be able能够 to afford给予 any housing住房 at all.
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残酷现实
12:01
Those are actual实际 pictures图片 of actual实际 apartments公寓
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这些照片拍的
12:03
renting租房 for that amount
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都是对应价格的
12:05
as advertised广告 on the Internet互联网.
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网上实际在售的公寓
12:07
The last thing I'll show显示 you,
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最后一个我想展示的
12:09
the last behavioral行为的 time machine,
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行为时光机器
12:11
is something that I created创建 with Hal哈尔 HershfieldHershfield,
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是我和哈尔赫施费尔德共同开发的
12:14
who was introduced介绍 to me by my coauthor合着者 on a previous以前 project项目,
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他是从一个之前项目加入我称为合作者的
12:17
Bill法案 Sharpe夏普.
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也就是“Bill Sharpe”
12:19
And what it is
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这个工具
12:21
is an exploration勘探 into virtual虚拟 reality现实.
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提供具象的现实
12:23
So what we do is we take pictures图片 of people --
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我们拍下用户的照片-
12:26
in this case案件, college-age大学年龄 people --
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这个是大学生-
12:28
and we use software软件 to age年龄 them
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然后我们用软件模拟衰老
12:30
and show显示 these people what they'll他们会 look like
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看看当他们六七八十岁的时候
12:33
when they're 60, 70, 80 years年份 old.
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是什么样子
12:35
And we try to test测试
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我们试着测试
12:37
whether是否 actually其实 assisting协助 your imagination想像力
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如果帮助你想像
12:40
by looking at the face面对 of your future未来 self
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将来的自己的样子
12:42
can change更改 you investment投资 behavior行为.
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能不能改变投资行为
12:44
So this is one of our experiments实验.
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这是我们的一个试验
12:47
Here we see the face面对 of the young年轻 subject学科 on the left.
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左边是我们测试对象的年轻的脸
12:50
He's given特定 a control控制
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他可以
12:52
that allows允许 him to adjust调整 his savings rate.
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调控自己的储蓄率
12:54
As he moves移动 his savings rate down,
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当他的储蓄率降低
12:56
it means手段 that he's saving保存 zero
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指针在最左边
12:58
when it's all the way here at the left.
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意味着储蓄为零
13:00
You can see his current当前 annual全年 income收入 --
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他目前的年收入-
13:02
this is the percentage百分比 of his paycheck薪水 that he can take home today今天 --
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现在他每天能拿到手的钱很多
13:05
is quite相当 high, 91 percent百分,
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百分之九十一
13:07
but his retirement退休 income收入 is quite相当 low.
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但是退休金会很低
13:09
He's going to retire退休 on 44 percent百分
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他的退休金只有工作时
13:11
of what he earned while he was working加工.
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薪水的百分之四十四
13:14
If he saves节省 the maximum最大值 legal法律 amount,
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如果现在提高到法定的储蓄上限
13:17
his retirement退休 income收入 goes up,
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他的退休金就上升
13:19
but he's unhappy不快乐
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但是他现在
13:21
because now he has less money on the left-hand左手 side to spend today今天.
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就无钱可花而会过得不快乐
13:25
Other conditions条件 show显示 people the future未来 self.
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还有其他的状况来展现未来的情形
13:28
And from the future未来 self's自我的 point of view视图, everything is in reverse相反.
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从未来的角度来看,一切都是相反的
13:31
If you save保存 very little,
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如果储蓄很少
13:33
the future未来 self is unhappy不快乐
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未来靠收入的百分之四十
13:35
living活的 on 44 percent百分 of the income收入.
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生活就会很不爽快
13:38
Whereas if the present当下 self saves节省 a lot,
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如果现在多储蓄一点
13:41
the future未来 self is delighted欣喜的,
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未来就会好过很多
13:43
where the income收入 is close up near 100 percent百分.
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因为退休金几乎和工作的收入一样多
13:46
To bring带来 this to a wider更宽的 audience听众,
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为了推广这个概念
13:49
I've been working加工 with Hal哈尔 and Allianz安联
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我和哈尔以及安莲兹
13:52
to create创建 something we call the behavioral行为的 time machine,
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开发出了行为学时间机器
13:55
in which哪一个 you not only get to see yourself你自己 in the future未来,
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这个软件不仅让你看到未来
13:58
but you get to see anticipated预期 emotional情绪化 reactions反应
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也可以看到你未来会根据退休收入的不同
14:01
to different不同 levels水平 of retirement退休 wealth财富.
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而有各种层次的情绪反应
14:04
So for instance,
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比如说
14:06
here is somebody using运用 the tool工具.
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有人用这个工具
14:08
And just watch the facial面部 expressions表达式
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移动光标
14:10
as they move移动 the slider滑块.
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查看面部表情
14:12
The younger更年轻 face面对 gets得到 happier幸福 and happier幸福, saving保存 nothing.
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年轻的脸越来越开心,但没有零星储蓄
14:14
The older旧的 face面对 is miserable.
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而老年的年就愁容满面
14:16
And slowly慢慢地, slowly慢慢地 we're bringing使 it up to a moderate中等 savings rate.
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如果转换到中等的储蓄率
14:18
And then it's a high savings rate.
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然后是高储蓄率
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The younger更年轻 face面对 is getting得到 unhappy不快乐.
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年轻时候的脸笑容越来越淡
14:22
The older旧的 face面对 is quite相当 pleased满意
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年老的脸则随之
14:24
with the decision决定.
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变的开心
14:27
We're going to see if this has an effect影响 on what people do.
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我们以此来看看人们是否会对此反应
14:29
And what's nice不错 about it
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它的好处是
14:31
is it's not something that biasing偏置 people actually其实,
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它并不会左右人们的想法
14:34
because as one face面对 smiles笑容,
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因为一侧的脸在笑
14:36
the other face面对 frowns皱眉.
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而另一侧脸就在愁
14:38
It's not telling告诉 you which哪一个 way to put the slider滑块,
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它并不指手画脚说选择哪一边
14:40
it's just reminding提醒 you that you are
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只是提醒你
14:43
connected连接的 to and legally法律上 tied to
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对自己的未来负责的人
14:45
this future未来 self.
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就是自己
14:47
Your decisions决定 today今天 are going to determine确定 its well-being福利.
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你现在的选择就决定了将来的生活
14:50
And that's something that's easy简单 to forget忘记.
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而这一点是我们很容易忘记的
14:53
This use of virtual虚拟 reality现实
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这种可视化现实
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is not just good for making制造 people look older旧的.
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不仅能显示年老的样子
14:58
There are programs程式 you can get
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还可以看看
15:00
to see how people might威力 look
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如果抽烟
15:02
if they smoke抽烟, if they get too much exposure曝光 to the sun太阳,
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暴晒、或者增肥的话
15:05
if they gain获得 weight重量 and so on.
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将来会是什么样子
15:07
And what's good is,
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它的好处是
15:09
unlike不像 in the experiments实验 that Hal哈尔 and myself ran with Russ拉斯 Smith工匠,
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我、哈尔和罗斯・史密斯的试验得自己写程序
15:12
you don't have to program程序 these by yourself你自己
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你可以不用这么大费周章
15:14
in order订购 to see the virtual虚拟 reality现实.
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想看到未来
15:17
There are applications应用 you can get on smartphones智能手机 for just a few少数 dollars美元
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只要用智能手机下载几美元的应用程度
15:20
that do the same相同 thing.
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就可以了
15:22
This is actually其实 a picture图片 of Hal哈尔, my coauthor合着者.
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这是我的合作者哈尔的照片
15:24
You might威力 recognize认识 him from the previous以前 demos演示.
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也许能从之前的演示里认出他来
15:27
And just for kicks we ran his picture图片
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我们把他的照片弄来恶搞
15:30
through通过 the balding秃头, aging老化 and weight重量 gain获得 software软件
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用软件看看要是他秃顶、老了还变胖了
15:33
to see how he would look.
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会是个什么样子
15:35
Hal哈尔 is here, so I think we owe it to him as well as yourself你自己
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哈尔也在场,所以为了他,也为了在场各位观众
15:38
to disabuse省悟 you of that last image图片.
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我就不再滥用这个照片了
15:42
And I'll close it there.
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今天就到这里结束
15:44
On behalf代表 of Hal哈尔 and myself,
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我代表哈尔和自己
15:46
I wish希望 all the best最好 to your present当下 and future未来 selves自我.
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给各位和将来的各位最好的祝福
15:48
Thank you.
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谢谢
15:50
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
Translated by Chunxiang Qian
Reviewed by Felix Chen

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Daniel Goldstein - Behavioral economist
Daniel Goldstein studies how we make decisions about our financial selves -- both now and in the future,

Why you should listen

Daniel Goldstein studies decision-making -- especially how humans make economic and social decisions over the course of our lives, and how we can give ourselves the right incentives, reminders, and rules of thumb to make long-term smart choices rather than short-term fun choices. He runs the blog Decision Science News. Dan is Principal Researcher at Microsoft Research, a former professor at London Business School, and member of the academic advisory board of the Behavioural Insights Team in the UK (aka the Nudge Unit). In 2015, he became President of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making, the largest academic society in Behavioral Economics.

More profile about the speaker
Daniel Goldstein | Speaker | TED.com