TEDSalon NY2011
Daniel Goldstein: The battle between your present and future self
Daniel Goldstein: Borba između vašeg sadašnjeg i budućeg 'ja'
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Svakoga dana donosimo odluke koje imaju dobre ili loše posljedice za naše buduće 'ja'. (Mogu li preskočiti čišćenje zubnim koncem bar ovaj put?) Daniel Goldstein daje nam alate koji nam mogu pomoći da zamislimo sebe kroz vrijeme i da donosimo pametne odluke za svoje buduće 'ja'.
Daniel Goldstein - Behavioral economist
Daniel Goldstein studies how we make decisions about our financial selves -- both now and in the future, Full bio
Daniel Goldstein studies how we make decisions about our financial selves -- both now and in the future, Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Do you remember the story
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Sjećate li se priče
00:17
of Odysseus and the Sirens
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o Odiseju i sirenama
00:19
from high school or junior high school?
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iz osnovne ili srednje škole?
00:21
There was this hero, Odysseus, who's heading back home
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Junak Odisej vraćao se kući
00:24
after the Trojan War.
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nakon Trojanskog rata.
00:26
And he's standing on the deck of his ship,
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Stoji na palubi svog broda,
00:28
he's talking to his first mate,
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razgovara sa svojim prvim časnikom
00:30
and he's saying,
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i kaže:
00:32
"Tomorrow, we will sail past those rocks,
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"Sutra ćemo ploviti pokraj onih stijena,
00:35
and on those rocks sit some beautiful women
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a na tim stijenama sjede predivne žene
00:37
called Sirens.
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koje se zovu Sirene.
00:39
And these women sing an enchanting song,
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Te žene pjevaju čarobnu pjesmu,
00:42
a song so alluring
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pjesmu tako zavodljivu
00:44
that all sailors who hear it
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da se svi mornari koji je čuju
00:46
crash into the rocks and die."
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razbiju o stijene i poginu."
00:48
Now you would expect, given that,
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Imajući to na umu, očekivali biste
00:50
that they would choose an alternate route around the Sirens,
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da će odabrati alternativni put okolo Sirena,
00:53
but instead Odysseus says,
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no umjesto toga Odisej kaže:
00:56
"I want to hear that song.
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"Želim čuti tu pjesmu.
00:58
And so what I'm going to do
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Ono što ću učiniti
01:00
is I'm going to pour wax in the ears
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jest da ću uliti vosak u uši
01:02
of you and all the men --
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tebi i cijeloj posadi --
01:04
stay with me --
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pratite me --
01:06
so that you can't hear the song,
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kako vi ne biste mogli čuti pjesmu,
01:08
and then I'm going to have you tie me to the mast
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a onda ćete me zavezati za jarbol
01:11
so that I can listen
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kako bih ja mogao slušati,
01:13
and we can all sail by unaffected."
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te svi zajedno možemo otploviti bez štete."
01:15
So this is a captain
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Dakle, to je kapetan
01:18
putting the life of every single person on the ship at risk
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koji dovodi u opasnost život svake osobe na brodu
01:20
so that he can hear a song.
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kako bi mogao čuti neku pjesmu.
01:22
And I'd like to think if this was the case,
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Volio bih misliti, ako je to bio slučaj,
01:24
they probably would have rehearsed it a few times.
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da bi vjerojatno nekoliko puta to isprobali.
01:27
Odysseus would have said, "Okay, let's do a dry run.
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Odisej bi rekao: "U redu, hajdemo probati.
01:30
You tie me to the mast, and I'm going to beg and plead.
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Vi me zavežite za jarbol, a ja ću moliti i preklinjati.
01:33
And no matter what I say, you cannot untie me from the mast.
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Što god rekao, vi me ne smijete odvezati s jarbola.
01:35
All right, so tie me to the mast."
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U redu, zavežite me za jarbol."
01:37
And the first mate takes a rope
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Prvi časnik uzme uže
01:39
and ties Odysseus to the mast in a nice knot.
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te dobro zaveže Odiseja za jarbol.
01:42
And Odysseus does his best job playacting
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Odisej se najbolje potrudi odglumiti
01:44
and says, "Untie me. Untie me.
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i kaže: "Odvežite me. Odvežite me.
01:46
I want to hear that song. Untie me."
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Želim čuti tu pjesmu. Odvežite me."
01:48
And the first mate wisely resists
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Prvi časnik se mudro odupire
01:50
and doesn't untie Odysseus.
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i ne odvezuje Odiseja.
01:52
And then Odysseus says, "I see that you can get it.
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Potom Odisej kaže: "Vidim da shvaćaš.
01:55
All right, untie me now and we'll get some dinner."
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Dobro, sad me odveži pa ćemo večerati."
01:58
And the first mate hesitates.
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Prvi časnik oklijeva.
02:00
He's like, "Is this still the rehearsal,
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Misli si: "Je li ovo još uvijek proba
02:02
or should I untie him?"
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ili bih ga trebao odvezati?"
02:05
And the first mate thinks,
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Prvi časnik pomisli:
02:07
"Well, I guess at some point the rehearsal has to end."
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"Valjda u jednom trenu proba mora završiti."
02:10
So he unties Odysseus, and Odysseus flips out.
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Pa odveže Odiseja, a Odisej poludi.
02:13
He's like, "You idiot. You moron.
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Kaže: "Idiote. Glupane.
02:15
If you do that tomorrow, I'll be dead, you'll be dead,
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Ako to sutra učiniš, ja sam mrtav, ti si mrtav,
02:17
every single one of the men will be dead.
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cijela će posada biti mrtva.
02:19
Now just don't untie me no matter what."
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Nemoj me odvezati što god da se dogodi."
02:22
He throws the first mate to the ground.
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Gurne prvog časnika na pod.
02:24
This repeats itself through the night --
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Ovo se ponavljalo tijekom cijele noći --
02:26
rehearsal, tying to the mast,
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proba, vezivanje za jarbol,
02:28
conning his way out of it,
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izvlačenje na prevaru,
02:30
beating the poor first mate up mercilessly.
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nemilosrdno prebijanje jadnog prvog časnika.
02:33
Hilarity ensues.
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Svi se smiju.
02:36
Tying yourself to a mast
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Vezivanje samog sebe za jarbol
02:38
is perhaps the oldest written example
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vjerojatno je najstariji pisani primjer
02:40
of what psychologists call a commitment device.
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onoga što psiholozi nazivaju dobrovoljno odricanje.
02:43
A commitment device is a decision that you make
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Dobrovoljno je odricanje odluka koju donosite
02:46
with a cool head to bind yourself
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hladne glave kako biste se natjerali
02:49
so that you don't do something regrettable
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da usijane glave ne učinite
02:51
when you have a hot head.
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nešto što biste mogli požaliti.
02:54
Because there's two heads inside one person
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Zato što u jednoj osobi postoje dvije glave,
02:56
when you think about it.
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kad malo razmislite o tome.
02:58
Scholars have long invoked this metaphor of two selves
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Znanstvenici već dugo spominju tu metaforu o dva 'ja'
03:01
when it comes to questions of temptation.
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kad se radi o iskušenju.
03:04
There is first, the present self.
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Postoji prvo, sadašnje 'ja'.
03:07
This is like Odysseus when he's hearing the song.
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Kao Odisej kad sluša pjesmu.
03:10
He just wants to get to the front row.
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Jedino što želi jest biti u prvom redu.
03:12
He just thinks about the here and now and the immediate gratification.
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Misli samo na sadašnjost i trenutno zadovoljstvo.
03:15
But then there's this other self, the future self.
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No, postoji i to drugo 'ja', buduće 'ja'.
03:18
This is Odysseus as an old man
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To je Odisej kao star čovjek
03:20
who wants nothing more than to retire in a sunny villa
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koji se samo želi povući u osunčanu vilu
03:23
with his wife Penelope
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sa svojom ženom Penelopom
03:25
outside of Ithaca -- the other one.
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izvan Itake -- one druge.
03:31
So why do we need commitment devices?
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Zašto trebamo alate za dobrovoljno odricanje?
03:35
Well resisting temptation is hard,
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Teško je oduprijeti se iskušenju,
03:37
as the 19th century English economist
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kao što kaže Nassau William Stariji,
03:40
Nassau William Senior said,
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engleski ekonomist iz 19. st.:
03:42
"To abstain from the enjoyment which is in our power,
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"Suzdržati se od užitka koji je u našoj moći
03:45
or to seek distant rather than immediate results,
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ili tražiti daleke radije nego brze rezultate,
03:48
are among the most painful exertions
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spada u najbolnije napore
03:50
of the human will."
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ljudske volje."
03:52
If you set goals for yourself and you're like a lot of other people,
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Ako si postavite ciljeve i ako ste kao ostali ljudi,
03:55
you probably realize
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vjerojatno ćete shvatiti
03:57
it's not that your goals are physically impossible
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da ono što vas sprečava da ostvarite te ciljeve
03:59
that's keeping you from achieving them,
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nije činjenica da su fizički nemogući,
04:01
it's that you lack the self-discipline to stick to them.
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već nedostatak samodiscipline da ne odustanete.
04:04
It's physically possible to lose weight.
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Fizički je moguće smršaviti.
04:06
It's physically possible to exercise more.
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Fizički je moguće više vježbati.
04:09
But resisting temptation
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No, oduprijeti se iskušenju
04:11
is hard.
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- to je teško.
04:13
The other reason
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Drugi razlog zašto je teško
04:15
that it's difficult to resist temptation
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oduprijeti se iskušenju jest
04:18
is because it's an unequal battle
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zato što je to neravnopravna borba
04:21
between the present self and the future self.
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između sadašnjeg i budućeg 'ja'.
04:23
I mean, let's face it, the present self is present.
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Budimo iskreni, sadašnje 'ja' je sadašnje.
04:25
It's in control. It's in power right now.
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Ono ima kontrolu. Trenutno ono ima moć.
04:28
It has these strong, heroic arms
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Ima te snažne, junačke ruke
04:30
that can lift doughnuts into your mouth.
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koje mogu staviti krafne u vaša usta.
04:32
And the future self is not even around.
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A buduće 'ja' nalazi se negdje daleko.
04:35
It's off in the future. It's weak.
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Ono je u budućnosti. Slabo je.
04:38
It doesn't even have a lawyer present.
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Čak mu ni odvjetnik nije prisutan.
04:40
There's nobody to stick up for the future self.
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Nema nikoga tko bi podupro buduće 'ja'.
04:42
And so the present self can trounce
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I tako sadašnje 'ja' može potući
04:45
all over its dreams.
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sve njegove snove.
04:47
So there's this battle between the two selves that's being fought,
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Dakle, vodi se ta bitka između dva 'ja'
04:51
and we need commitment devices
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i treba nam to dobrovoljno odricanje
04:53
to level the playing field between the two.
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kako bi borba između dva 'ja' bila ravnopravna.
04:56
Now I'm a big fan of commitment devices actually.
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Ja zapravo zaista volim dobrovoljno odricanje.
04:59
Tying yourself to the mast is the oldest one, but there are other ones
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Vezivanje samog sebe za jarbol najstarije je, no ima i drugih,
05:02
such as locking a credit card away with a key
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kao što su zaključavanje kreditne kartice
05:06
or not bringing junk food into the house so you won't eat it
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ili nedonošenje brze hrane u kuću kako je ne biste pojeli
05:09
or unplugging your Internet connection
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ili isključivanje internet veze
05:11
so you can use your computer.
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kako biste mogli korisiti kompjuter.
05:13
I was creating commitment devices of my own
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Ja sam stvarao sam svoje
05:15
long before I knew what they were.
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mnogo prije nego sam znao što su.
05:17
So when I was a starving post-doc
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Dok sam bio gladan postdoktorant
05:19
at Columbia University,
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na sveučilištu Columbia,
05:21
I was deep in a publish-or-perish phase of my career.
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bio sam duboko u fazi 'objavi ili propadni' svoje karijere.
05:24
I had to write five pages a day
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Morao sam napisati pet stranica dnevno
05:26
towards papers
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za svoje radove
05:28
or I would have to give up five dollars.
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ili bih se morao odreći pet dolara.
05:31
And when you try to execute these commitment devices,
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Kad pokušate koristiti te alate za dobrovoljno odricanje,
05:34
you realize the devil is really in the details.
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shvatite da je vrag zapravo u detaljima.
05:36
Because it's not that easy to get rid of five dollars.
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Jer nije tako lako odreći se pet dolara.
05:39
I mean, you can't burn it; that's illegal.
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Ne možete ih zapaliti; to je protuzakonito.
05:42
And I thought, well I could give it to a charity
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Razmišljao sam da ih dam u dobrotvorne svrhe
05:44
or give it to my wife or something like that.
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ili supruzi ili nešto takvo.
05:46
But then I thought, oh, I'm sending myself mixed messages.
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Ali onda sam pomislio kako si šaljem pomiješane poruke.
05:48
Because not writing is bad, but giving to charity is good.
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Zato što je nepisanje loše, ali je davanje u dobrotvorne svrhe dobro.
05:51
So then I would kind of justify not writing
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Na neki bih način opravdao nepisanje
05:53
by giving a gift.
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davanjem dara.
05:55
And then I kind of flipped that around and thought,
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Zatim sam to preokrenuo i pomislio,
05:57
well I could give it to the neo-Nazis.
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pa mogao bih novac dati i neonacistima.
05:59
But then I was like, that's more bad than writing is good,
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No, tada sam shvatio da je to lošije nego što je pisanje dobro,
06:02
and so that wouldn't work.
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tako da to ne bi funkcioniralo.
06:04
So ultimately, I just decided
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Na kraju sam samo odlučio
06:06
I would leave it in an envelope on the subway.
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da ću ih ostaviti u kuverti u podzemnoj željeznici.
06:09
Sometimes a good person would find it,
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Ponekad će ih pronaći dobra osoba,
06:11
sometimes a bad person would find it.
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a ponekad loša.
06:13
On average, it was just a completely pointless exchange of money
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U prosjeku je to bila samo besmislena razmjena novca
06:16
that I would regret.
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koju ću požaliti.
06:18
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
06:21
Such it is with commitment devices.
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Tako je i s alatima za dobrovoljno odricanje.
06:24
But despite my like for them,
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No, unatoč tome što mi se sviđaju,
06:28
there's two nagging concerns
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postoje dvije naporne brige
06:30
that I've always had about commitment devices,
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koje sam uvijek imao u vezi alata za dobrovoljno odricanje
06:32
and you might feel this if you use them yourself.
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i mogli biste ih imati ako ih koristite.
06:34
So the first is,
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Dakle, prvo je što
06:36
when you've got one of these devices going,
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kad korisitite jedan od tih alata,
06:38
such as this contract to write everyday or pay,
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kao što je ugovor za svakodnevno pisanje ili plaćanje,
06:41
it's just a constant reminder
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to je stalni podsjetnik
06:43
that you have no self-control.
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da nemate samokontrolu.
06:45
You're just telling yourself, "Without you, commitment device,
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Samo si govorite: "Bez tebe,
06:47
I am nothing, I have no self-discipline."
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ja sam ništa. Nemam samodiscipline."
06:50
And then when you're ever in a situation
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I onda, ako ste ikad u situaciji
06:52
where you don't have a commitment device in place --
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da nemate spreman alat za dobrovoljno odricanje --
06:55
like, "Oh my God, that person's offering me a doughnut,
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recimo: "O Bože, ova mi osoba nudi krafnu,
06:57
and I have no defense mechanism," --
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a ja nemam obrambeni mehanizam." --
06:59
you just eat it.
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samo ju pojedete.
07:01
So I don't like the way that they take the power away from you.
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Ne sviđa mi se kako vam oduzimaju moć.
07:04
I think self-discipline is something, it's like a muscle.
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Mislim da je samodisciplina nešto kao mišić.
07:07
The more you exercise it, the stronger it gets.
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Što ga više vježbate, to će biti jači.
07:10
The other problem with commitment devices
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Drugi problem s alatima za dobrovoljno odricanje
07:12
is that you can always weasel your way out of them.
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jest što se uvijek možete izvući iz njih.
07:15
You say, "Well, of course I can't write today,
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Kažete: "Naravno da ne mogu danas pisati
07:17
because I'm giving a TEDTalk and I have five media interviews,
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zato što ću održati TEDTalk i imam pet intervjua za medije,
07:20
and then I'm going to a cocktail party and then I'll be drunk after that.
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a onda idem na koktel zabavu i bit ću pijan nakon toga.
07:23
And so there's no way that this is going to work."
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Nema šanse da će to funkcionirati."
07:26
So in effect, you are like Odysseus and the first mate
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Dakle, vi ste kao Odisej i prvi časnik
07:28
in one person.
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u jednoj osobi.
07:30
You're putting yourself, you're binding yourself,
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Predajete se, obvezujete se
07:33
and you're weaseling your way out of it,
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i izvlačite se iz toga,
07:35
and then you're beating yourself up afterwards.
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a onda se kasnije grizete.
07:37
So I've been working
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Radim već
07:39
for about a decade now
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desetak godina
07:41
on finding other ways
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na pronalasku drugih načina
07:43
to change people's relationship to the future self
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za promjenu odnosa ljudi prema budućem 'ja'
07:45
without using commitment devices.
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bez korištenja alata za dobrovoljno odricanje.
07:47
In particular, I'm interested in the relationship
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Posebno me zanima odnos
07:50
to the future financial self.
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prema budućem financijskom 'ja'.
07:54
And this is a timely issue.
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To je goruće pitanje.
07:56
I'm talking about the topic of saving.
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Govorim o štednji.
07:58
Now saving is a classic two selves problem.
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Znači, štednja je klasični problem dvostrukog 'ja'.
08:00
The present self does not want to save at all.
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Sadašnje 'ja' uopće ne želi štedjeti.
08:03
It wants to consume.
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Ono želi trošiti.
08:05
Whereas the future self wants the present self to save.
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Dok buduće 'ja' želi da sadašnje 'ja' štedi.
08:09
So this is a timely problem.
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Dakle, to je gorući problem.
08:11
We look at the savings rate
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Gledamo stope štednje,
08:13
and it has been declining since the 1950s.
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koje su u opadanju od 1950-ih.
08:16
At the same time, the Retirement Risk Index,
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U isto vrijeme, indeks rizika umirovljenja,
08:19
the chance of not being able to meet your needs in retirement,
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mogućnost da nećete moći zadovoljiti svoje potrebe u mirovini,
08:22
has been increasing.
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u porastu je.
08:24
And we're at a situation now
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Trenutno smo u situaciji
08:26
where for every three baby boomers,
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gdje od svake tri osobe rođene sredinom 20. st.
08:28
the McKinsey Global Institute predicts
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McKinsey Global Institute predviđa
08:30
that two will not be able to meet their pre-retirement needs
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da dvije neće uspjeti zadovoljiti svoje predmirovinske potrebe
08:34
while they're in retirement.
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dok su u mirovini.
08:36
So what can we do about this?
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Što možemo poduzeti oko toga?
08:39
There's a philosopher, Derek Parfit,
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Postoji filozof Derek Parfit,
08:42
who said some words that were inspiring to my coauthors and I.
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koji je rekao nešto što je inspiriralo moje suautore i mene.
08:45
He said that, "We might neglect our future selves
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Rekao je: "Možda zanemarujemo svoje buduće 'ja'
08:48
because of some failure of belief or imagination."
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zbog nekog promašenog vjerovanja ili zamišljanja."
08:52
That is to say,
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Time želi reći
08:54
we somehow might not believe that we're going to get old,
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da možda nekako ne vjerujemo da ćemo ostarjeti
08:57
or we might not be able to imagine
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ili da možda ne možemo zamisliti
08:59
that we're going to get old some day.
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da ćemo jednog dana biti stari.
09:01
On the one hand, it sounds ridiculous.
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U jednu ruku, to zvuči smiješno.
09:03
Of course, we know that we're going to get old.
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Naravno da znamo da ćemo ostarjeti.
09:05
But aren't there things that we believe and don't believe at the same time?
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No, postoje li stvari u koje vjerujemo i ne vjerujemo u isto vrijeme?
09:08
So my coauthors and I have used computers,
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Moji suautori i ja koristimo kompjutere,
09:11
the greatest tool of our time,
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najveći alat našeg vremena,
09:13
to assist people's imagination
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kako bismo pomogli ljudskoj mašti
09:15
and help them imagine what it might be like
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te ih poduprijeli da zamisle kako bi bilo
09:18
to go into the future.
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otići u budućnost.
09:20
And I'll show you some of these tools right here.
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Sada ću vam pokazati neke od tih alata.
09:23
The first is called the distribution builder.
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Prvi je takozvani alat za distribuciju.
09:25
It shows people what the future might be like
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Pokazuje ljudima kakva bi budućnost mogla biti
09:28
by showing them a hundred equally probable outcomes
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pokazujući im stotine jednako vjerojatnih rezultata
09:31
that might be obtained in the future.
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koji bi mogli nastati u budućnosti.
09:33
Each outcome is shown by one of these markers,
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Svaki je rezultat prikazan jednom od ovih oznaka,
09:36
and each sits on a row
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te se svaka nalazi u redu
09:38
that represents a level of wealth and retirement.
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koji predstavlja razinu bogatstva i mirovine.
09:40
Being up at the top
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Mjesto na vrhu
09:42
means that you're enjoying a high income in retirement.
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znači da ćete imati visoke prihode u mirovini.
09:44
Being down at the bottom
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Mjesto na dnu
09:46
means that you're struggling to make ends meet.
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znači da ćete teško spajati kraj s krajem.
09:48
When you make an investment,
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Kad ulažete,
09:50
what you're really saying is, "I accept
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ono što zaista govorite jest: "Prihvaćam
09:52
that any one of these 100 things
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da bi mi se bilo koja od ovih sto stvari
09:54
could happen to me and determine my wealth."
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mogla dogoditi i time odrediti moje bogatstvo."
09:56
Now you can try to move your outcomes around.
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Možete pokušati razmjestiti svoje rezultate.
09:59
You can try to manipulate your fate, like this person is doing,
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Možete pokušati manipulirati svojom sudbinom, poput ove osobe,
10:02
but it costs you something to do it.
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ali to će vas koštati.
10:04
It means that you have to save more today.
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To znači da danas morate više štedjeti.
10:08
Once you find an investment that you're happy with,
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Jednom kad pronađete ulaganje s kojim ste zadovoljni,
10:10
what people do is they click "done"
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ljudi kliknu na "gotovo"
10:12
and the markers begin to disappear,
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i oznake počinju nestajati,
10:14
slowly, one by one.
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polako, jedna po jedna.
10:16
It simulates what it is like to invest in something
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To je simulacija kako je to ulagati u nešto
10:18
and to watch that investment pan out.
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i gledati kako to ulaganje donosi uspjeh.
10:21
At the end, there will only be one marker left standing
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Na kraju će ostati samo jedna oznaka
10:24
and it will determine our wealth in retirement.
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i ona će odrediti vaše bogatstvo u mirovini.
10:27
Yes, this person retired
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Da, ova je osoba otišla u mirovinu
10:29
at 150 percent of their working income in retirement.
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sa 150 posto svojeg radnog prihoda.
10:33
They're making more money while retired
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Više zarađuju u mirovini
10:35
than they were making while they were working.
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nego što su zarađivali dok su radili.
10:37
If you're like most people,
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Ako ste kao većina ljudi,
10:39
just seeing that gave you a small sense of elation and joy --
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samo gledanje ovoga daje vam mali osjećaj sreće i zadovoljstva --
10:43
just to think about making
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sama pomisao na zarađivanje
10:45
50 percent more money in retirement than before.
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50 posto više novca u mirovini nego prije.
10:48
However, had you ended up on the very bottom,
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No, da ste završili na samom dnu,
10:50
it might have given you a slight sense
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to bi vam moglo dati blagi osjećaj
10:52
of dread and/or nausea
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straha i/ili muke,
10:54
thinking about struggling to get by in retirement.
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dok razmišljate o borbi za preživljavanje u mirovini.
10:58
By using this tool over and over
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Stalnim korišenjem ovog alata
11:00
and simulating outcome after outcome,
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i simuliranjem posljedice za posljedicom
11:03
people can understand
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ljudi mogu razumijeti
11:05
that the investments and savings that they undertake today
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da ulaganja i štednja koje poduzmu danas
11:08
determine their well-being in the future.
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određuju njihovo blagostanje u budućnosti.
11:10
Now people are motivated through emotions,
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Ljudi se motiviraju putem emocija,
11:13
but different people find different things motivating.
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no različite ljude motiviraju različte stvari.
11:16
This is a simulation
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Ovo je simulacija
11:19
that uses graphics,
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koja koristi grafički prikaz,
11:21
but other people find motivating what money can buy,
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no druge ljude motivira ono što se može kupiti novcem,
11:23
not just numbers.
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a ne samo brojevi.
11:25
So here I made a distribution builder
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Stoga sam napravio alat za distribuciju
11:27
where instead of showing numerical outcomes,
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gdje umjesto prikazivanja brojčanih rezultata,
11:30
I show people what those outcomes will get you,
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pokazujem ljudima kamo će vas ti rezultati odvesti,
11:33
in particular apartments that you can afford
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u određen stan koji si možete priuštiti
11:35
if you're retiring on 3,000, 2,500,
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ako ste vam je mirovina 3000, 2500,
11:38
2,000 dollars per month and so on.
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2000 dolara mjesečno i tako dalje.
11:41
As you move down the ladder of apartments,
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Kako se spuštate po ljestvici stanova,
11:43
you see that they get worse and worse.
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vidite da postaju gori i gori.
11:46
Some of them look like places I lived in as a graduate student.
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Neki od njih izgledaju kao mjesta gdje sam živio tijekom diplomskog studija.
11:50
And as you get to the very bottom,
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Kako dolazite do samog dna,
11:54
you're faced with the unfortunate reality
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suočeni ste s nesretnom realnošću
11:56
that if you don't save anything for retirement,
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da ako ništa ne štedite za mirovinu,
11:58
you won't be able to afford any housing at all.
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nećete si moći priuštiti nikakvo stanovanje.
12:01
Those are actual pictures of actual apartments
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Ovo su stvarne slike stvarnih stanova
12:03
renting for that amount
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koji se iznajmljuju za taj iznos
12:05
as advertised on the Internet.
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kao što je oglašeno na internetu.
12:07
The last thing I'll show you,
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Zadnja stvar koju ću vam pokazati jest
12:09
the last behavioral time machine,
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posljednji vremenski stroj ponašanja,
12:11
is something that I created with Hal Hershfield,
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nešto što sam stvorio s Halom Hershfieldom,
12:14
who was introduced to me by my coauthor on a previous project,
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s kojim me upoznao moj suautor na prijašnjem projektu
12:17
Bill Sharpe.
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Bill Sharpe.
12:19
And what it is
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Ovdje se radi
12:21
is an exploration into virtual reality.
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o pregledu virtualne stvarnosti.
12:23
So what we do is we take pictures of people --
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Mi, dakle, fotografiramo ljude --
12:26
in this case, college-age people --
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u ovom slučaju, ljude studentske dobi --
12:28
and we use software to age them
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te koristimo kompjuterski program da ih postaramo
12:30
and show these people what they'll look like
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i pokažemo tim ljudima kako će izgledati
12:33
when they're 60, 70, 80 years old.
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sa 60, 70, 80 godina.
12:35
And we try to test
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Pokušavamo provjeriti
12:37
whether actually assisting your imagination
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hoće li pomaganje mašti
12:40
by looking at the face of your future self
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gledanjem u lice budućeg 'ja'
12:42
can change you investment behavior.
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promijeniti vaše ponašanje u vezi ulaganja.
12:44
So this is one of our experiments.
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Ovo je jedan od naših pokusa.
12:47
Here we see the face of the young subject on the left.
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Ovdje nalijevo vidimo lice mladog subjekta.
12:50
He's given a control
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Ima kontrolu
12:52
that allows him to adjust his savings rate.
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koja mu omogućava da prilagodi svoju stopu štednje.
12:54
As he moves his savings rate down,
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Kako smanjuje svoju stopu štednje,
12:56
it means that he's saving zero
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to znači da ne štedi ništa
12:58
when it's all the way here at the left.
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kad se nalazi skroz nalijevo.
13:00
You can see his current annual income --
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Vidite da je njegov trenutni godišnji prihod --
13:02
this is the percentage of his paycheck that he can take home today --
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ovo je postotak plaće koju danas može ponijeti kući --
13:05
is quite high, 91 percent,
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vrlo visok, 91 posto,
13:07
but his retirement income is quite low.
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no njegov prihod u mirovini dosta je nizak.
13:09
He's going to retire on 44 percent
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Otići će u mirovinu s 44 posto
13:11
of what he earned while he was working.
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od onoga što je zarađivao dok je radio.
13:14
If he saves the maximum legal amount,
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Ako uštedi maksimalan zakonski iznos,
13:17
his retirement income goes up,
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njegova će se mirovina povisiti,
13:19
but he's unhappy
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no on nije sretan
13:21
because now he has less money on the left-hand side to spend today.
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jer sada ima manje novca na lijevoj strani za trošenje danas.
13:25
Other conditions show people the future self.
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Druge okolnosti pokazuju ljudima buduće 'ja'.
13:28
And from the future self's point of view, everything is in reverse.
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Sa stajališta budućeg 'ja', sve je obratno.
13:31
If you save very little,
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Ako jako malo uštedite,
13:33
the future self is unhappy
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buduće 'ja' je nesretno
13:35
living on 44 percent of the income.
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jer živi s 44 posto prihoda.
13:38
Whereas if the present self saves a lot,
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Ako sadašnje 'ja' puno uštedi,
13:41
the future self is delighted,
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buduće 'ja' je oduševljeno,
13:43
where the income is close up near 100 percent.
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jer je prihod blizu sto posto.
13:46
To bring this to a wider audience,
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Kako bih ovo približio široj publici,
13:49
I've been working with Hal and Allianz
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radim s Halom i Allianzom
13:52
to create something we call the behavioral time machine,
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na stvaranju nečega što zovemo vremenskim strojem ponašanja
13:55
in which you not only get to see yourself in the future,
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u kojem ne samo da vidite sebe u budućnosti,
13:58
but you get to see anticipated emotional reactions
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nego možete vidjeti očekivane emotivne reakcije
14:01
to different levels of retirement wealth.
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na različite razine bogatstva u mirovini.
14:04
So for instance,
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Na primjer,
14:06
here is somebody using the tool.
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ovdje netko koristi taj alat.
14:08
And just watch the facial expressions
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Samo gledajte izraze lica
14:10
as they move the slider.
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dok se pomiču na klizaču.
14:12
The younger face gets happier and happier, saving nothing.
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Mlađe lice postaje sretnije i sretnije ne štedeći ništa.
14:14
The older face is miserable.
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Starije lice je nesretno.
14:16
And slowly, slowly we're bringing it up to a moderate savings rate.
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Polako, polako približavamo ga srednjoj stopi štednje.
14:18
And then it's a high savings rate.
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A onda dolazi visoka stopa štednje.
14:20
The younger face is getting unhappy.
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Mlado lice postaje nesretnije.
14:22
The older face is quite pleased
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Starije je lice prilično zadovoljno
14:24
with the decision.
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odlukom.
14:27
We're going to see if this has an effect on what people do.
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Vidjet ćemo ima li ovo utjecaja na ono što ljudi rade.
14:29
And what's nice about it
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Dobra stvar u ovome jest
14:31
is it's not something that biasing people actually,
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da to zapravo ne opredjeljuje ljude,
14:34
because as one face smiles,
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jer dok se jedno lice smije,
14:36
the other face frowns.
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drugo se lice mrgodi.
14:38
It's not telling you which way to put the slider,
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Ne govori vam kamo pomaknuti klizač
14:40
it's just reminding you that you are
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nego vas samo podsjeća
14:43
connected to and legally tied to
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da ste povezani i zakonom obvezani
14:45
this future self.
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tom budućem 'ja'.
14:47
Your decisions today are going to determine its well-being.
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Vaše današnje odluke odredit će vaše blagostanje.
14:50
And that's something that's easy to forget.
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A to se lako zaboravlja.
14:53
This use of virtual reality
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Ova upotreba virtualne stvarnosti
14:56
is not just good for making people look older.
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nije samo dobra da postara ljude.
14:58
There are programs you can get
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Ima programa koje možete nabaviti
15:00
to see how people might look
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da biste vidjeli kako bi ljudi izgledali
15:02
if they smoke, if they get too much exposure to the sun,
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ako puše, ako se previše izlažu suncu,
15:05
if they gain weight and so on.
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ako se udebljaju i tako dalje.
15:07
And what's good is,
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Dobra je stvar da,
15:09
unlike in the experiments that Hal and myself ran with Russ Smith,
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za razliku od pokusa koje smo Hal i ja izvodili s Russom Smithom,
15:12
you don't have to program these by yourself
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ne morate to sami programirati
15:14
in order to see the virtual reality.
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da biste vidjeli virtualnu stvarnost.
15:17
There are applications you can get on smartphones for just a few dollars
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Postoje aplikacije koje možete kupiti na pametnim telefonima za nekoliko dolara,
15:20
that do the same thing.
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koje rade istu stvar.
15:22
This is actually a picture of Hal, my coauthor.
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Ovo na slici je Hal, moj suautor.
15:24
You might recognize him from the previous demos.
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Možda ga prepoznajete s prijašnjih demo-snimki.
15:27
And just for kicks we ran his picture
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Samo za zabavu provukli smo njegovu sliku
15:30
through the balding, aging and weight gain software
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kroz kompjuterski program za ćelavljenje, starenje i debljanje
15:33
to see how he would look.
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da vidimo kako bi izgledao.
15:35
Hal is here, so I think we owe it to him as well as yourself
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Hal je ovdje, tako da mislim da dugujemo i njemu i vama
15:38
to disabuse you of that last image.
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da vas poštedimo te zadnje slike.
15:42
And I'll close it there.
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S time ću završiti.
15:44
On behalf of Hal and myself,
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U Halovo i moje ime,
15:46
I wish all the best to your present and future selves.
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želim sve najbolje vašem sadašnjem i budućem 'ja'.
15:48
Thank you.
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Hvala.
15:50
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Daniel Goldstein - Behavioral economistDaniel Goldstein studies how we make decisions about our financial selves -- both now and in the future,
Why you should listen
Daniel Goldstein studies decision-making -- especially how humans make economic and social decisions over the course of our lives, and how we can give ourselves the right incentives, reminders, and rules of thumb to make long-term smart choices rather than short-term fun choices. He runs the blog Decision Science News. Dan is Principal Researcher at Microsoft Research, a former professor at London Business School, and member of the academic advisory board of the Behavioural Insights Team in the UK (aka the Nudge Unit). In 2015, he became President of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making, the largest academic society in Behavioral Economics.
Daniel Goldstein | Speaker | TED.com