TEDSalon NY2011
Daniel Goldstein: The battle between your present and future self
Daniel Goldstein: 你現在和未來的自我之間的戰鬥
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每一天，我們都為今後我們自我的後果作出好或壞的決定。（我可不可以就這一次不用牙線呢？）Daniel Goldstein創制方法幫助我們推想隨著時間推移的自己，讓我們為未來作出明智的選擇。
Daniel Goldstein - Behavioral economist
Daniel Goldstein studies how we make decisions about our financial selves -- both now and in the future, Full bio
Daniel Goldstein studies how we make decisions about our financial selves -- both now and in the future, Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Do you remember the story
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你記不記得
00:17
of Odysseus and the Sirens
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從高中或初中
00:19
from high school or junior high school?
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奧德修斯和塞壬的故事嗎？
00:21
There was this hero, Odysseus, who's heading back home
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有這一個英雄, 奧德修斯，剛從
00:24
after the Trojan War.
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特洛伊戰爭戰後回家。
00:26
And he's standing on the deck of his ship,
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他站立在他的的船的甲板上，
00:28
he's talking to his first mate,
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他和他的第一副手，
00:30
and he's saying,
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談着說:
00:32
"Tomorrow, we will sail past those rocks,
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「明天，我們將駛過那些岩石去，
00:35
and on those rocks sit some beautiful women
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在這些岩石上會坐着一群美麗的女子,
00:37
called Sirens.
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她們稱為塞壬。
00:39
And these women sing an enchanting song,
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而這群女子會唱着一首迷人的歌曲，
00:42
a song so alluring
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那首如此誘人的歌曲，
00:44
that all sailors who hear it
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令到所有水手聽到都着迷,
00:46
crash into the rocks and die."
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撞到岩石而死亡。」
00:48
Now you would expect, given that,
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現在你當然以為鑑於這個原因,
00:50
that they would choose an alternate route around the Sirens,
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他們會選擇另一條迴避塞壬們的路徑，
00:53
but instead Odysseus says,
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但奧德修斯竟然說:
00:56
"I want to hear that song.
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「我想聽到這首歌。
00:58
And so what I'm going to do
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而我要做的是要
01:00
is I'm going to pour wax in the ears
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在你和所有人的耳朵中
01:02
of you and all the men --
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倒進蠟--
01:04
stay with me --
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等着--
01:06
so that you can't hear the song,
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你們便聽不到這首歌，
01:08
and then I'm going to have you tie me to the mast
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然後你們要把我綁在桅杆上，
01:11
so that I can listen
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那我便可以聽到這首歌,
01:13
and we can all sail by unaffected."
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而我們都可以不受影響順利渡過。」
01:15
So this is a captain
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這是一個
01:18
putting the life of every single person on the ship at risk
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只為了聽到一首歌曲, 而願意妄顧船上
01:20
so that he can hear a song.
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每一個人安危的隊長。
01:22
And I'd like to think if this was the case,
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而且我覺得如果是這種情況，
01:24
they probably would have rehearsed it a few times.
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他們理應先會排練幾次。
01:27
Odysseus would have said, "Okay, let's do a dry run.
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奧德修斯會說: 「好吧，讓我們試試做。
01:30
You tie me to the mast, and I'm going to beg and plead.
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當你把我綁在桅杆上，我會央求你把我釋放。
01:33
And no matter what I say, you cannot untie me from the mast.
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無論我說什麼，你不可以都解開我。
01:35
All right, so tie me to the mast."
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好, 現在把我綁在桅杆上吧。」
01:37
And the first mate takes a rope
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大副便拿着繩子
01:39
and ties Odysseus to the mast in a nice knot.
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把奧德修斯綁在桅杆上，結了一個漂亮的結。
01:42
And Odysseus does his best job playacting
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然後奧德修斯假裝演着說，
01:44
and says, "Untie me. Untie me.
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「解開我, 解開我。
01:46
I want to hear that song. Untie me."
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我想聽聽這首歌。解開我。」
01:48
And the first mate wisely resists
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大副明智地抗拒
01:50
and doesn't untie Odysseus.
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和不解開奧德修斯。
01:52
And then Odysseus says, "I see that you can get it.
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然後奧德修斯說，「好, 我看到你是行的。
01:55
All right, untie me now and we'll get some dinner."
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好, 把我解開, 然後我們去吃晚餐。」
01:58
And the first mate hesitates.
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大副遲疑。
02:00
He's like, "Is this still the rehearsal,
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他在想: 「這是否仍是排練?
02:02
or should I untie him?"
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或是我應該解開他呢？」
02:05
And the first mate thinks,
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大副在想:
02:07
"Well, I guess at some point the rehearsal has to end."
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「好吧，排練都應該有結束的時候。」
02:10
So he unties Odysseus, and Odysseus flips out.
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於是，他解開了奧德修斯，而奧德修斯卻大發雷霆,
02:13
He's like, "You idiot. You moron.
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罵着: 「你這個白痴。你這個蠢材。
02:15
If you do that tomorrow, I'll be dead, you'll be dead,
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如果明天你這樣做，我會死，你會死的，
02:17
every single one of the men will be dead.
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每一個人都會死亡。
02:19
Now just don't untie me no matter what."
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只要無論如何都不要解開我。」
02:22
He throws the first mate to the ground.
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他把大副推到地上。
02:24
This repeats itself through the night --
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整夜這個過程一再重複--
02:26
rehearsal, tying to the mast,
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排練，綁在桅杆上，
02:28
conning his way out of it,
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奧德修斯哄騙着要解開他,
02:30
beating the poor first mate up mercilessly.
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毫不留情地毆打那個可憐的大副。
02:33
Hilarity ensues.
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鬧劇隨之而來。
02:36
Tying yourself to a mast
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把自己綁在桅杆
02:38
is perhaps the oldest written example
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也許是心理學家最長久有書寫記錄
02:40
of what psychologists call a commitment device.
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所說的稱為承諾設備的例子。
02:43
A commitment device is a decision that you make
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承諾設備是一個你以冷靜頭腦
02:46
with a cool head to bind yourself
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作出的決定來約束自己,
02:49
so that you don't do something regrettable
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是以讓你不要當你脾气急躁時
02:51
when you have a hot head.
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做一些遺憾的事情。
02:54
Because there's two heads inside one person
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因為當你想想看, 人內其實
02:56
when you think about it.
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有兩個頭腦。
02:58
Scholars have long invoked this metaphor of two selves
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當涉及到的誘惑力的問題,
03:01
when it comes to questions of temptation.
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學者早就調用到這兩個自我的比喻。
03:04
There is first, the present self.
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首先是, 目前的自我。
03:07
This is like Odysseus when he's hearing the song.
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這是像奧德修斯聽到這首歌的時候。
03:10
He just wants to get to the front row.
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他只想去坐前排。
03:12
He just thinks about the here and now and the immediate gratification.
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他只是想到此時此地和當下的滿足。
03:15
But then there's this other self, the future self.
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但另一個自我, 是未來的自我。
03:18
This is Odysseus as an old man
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這是奧德修斯作為一個老人,
03:20
who wants nothing more than to retire in a sunny villa
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一個想要在陽光明媚伊薩卡外的別墅,
03:23
with his wife Penelope
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和他的妻子佩內洛普退休
03:25
outside of Ithaca -- the other one.
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的奧德修斯，另一個自我。
03:31
So why do we need commitment devices?
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那麼，為什麼我們需要承諾的設備？
03:35
Well resisting temptation is hard,
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因為抗拒誘惑是很困難的，
03:37
as the 19th century English economist
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如19世紀英國經濟學家
03:40
Nassau William Senior said,
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老拿騷威廉說:
03:42
"To abstain from the enjoyment which is in our power,
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「要放棄我們有權力掌管的享受，
03:45
or to seek distant rather than immediate results,
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或是要企圖遙遠規避而不享有即時的效果，
03:48
are among the most painful exertions
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是對人類意志最痛苦
03:50
of the human will."
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費力的事。」
03:52
If you set goals for yourself and you're like a lot of other people,
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像其他很多人一樣, 如果你為自己設定目標,
03:55
you probably realize
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你可能會意識到
03:57
it's not that your goals are physically impossible
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不是你的目標過於高不可攀
03:59
that's keeping you from achieving them,
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令你不可能實現，
04:01
it's that you lack the self-discipline to stick to them.
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而是你缺乏自律去堅持。
04:04
It's physically possible to lose weight.
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減肥是物理上有可能實現的。
04:06
It's physically possible to exercise more.
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要多點運動物理上是有可能的。
04:09
But resisting temptation
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但抵制誘惑
04:11
is hard.
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是很難。
04:13
The other reason
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另外一個原因
04:15
that it's difficult to resist temptation
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令誘惑難以抗拒，
04:18
is because it's an unequal battle
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是因為在目前的自我
04:21
between the present self and the future self.
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和未來的自我之間有著不平等的戰鬥。
04:23
I mean, let's face it, the present self is present.
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我的意思是，面對現實吧，現在的自我是現在。
04:25
It's in control. It's in power right now.
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它在控制。它現在在控制權力。
04:28
It has these strong, heroic arms
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它有著這些強大的，英勇的胳膊，
04:30
that can lift doughnuts into your mouth.
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可以把甜圈放在你的口中。
04:32
And the future self is not even around.
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而未來的自我根甚本不存。
04:35
It's off in the future. It's weak.
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它在未來。它薄弱。
04:38
It doesn't even have a lawyer present.
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它甚至沒有律師在場。
04:40
There's nobody to stick up for the future self.
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沒有人堅持為未來的自我爭辯。
04:42
And so the present self can trounce
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所以現在的自我可以打垮
04:45
all over its dreams.
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所有未來的夢想。
04:47
So there's this battle between the two selves that's being fought,
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這自我兩者之間的鬥爭在戰鬥中，
04:51
and we need commitment devices
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我們需要的承諾設備
04:53
to level the playing field between the two.
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來公平平整兩者之間的競爭環境。
04:56
Now I'm a big fan of commitment devices actually.
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事實上我是承諾設備的擁躉。
04:59
Tying yourself to the mast is the oldest one, but there are other ones
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把自己綁在桅杆上是最古老的一例，但也有其他的，
05:02
such as locking a credit card away with a key
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例如把信用卡用鑰匙鎖着
05:06
or not bringing junk food into the house so you won't eat it
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或不把垃圾食品帶回家，這樣你便不會吃它，
05:09
or unplugging your Internet connection
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或拔走互聯網連接,
05:11
so you can use your computer.
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因此你可以實在使用你的電腦。
05:13
I was creating commitment devices of my own
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我早在未認識承諾設備之前
05:15
long before I knew what they were.
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已經創造我自己的承諾設。
05:17
So when I was a starving post-doc
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當我還是一個身無長物的哥倫比亞大學
05:19
at Columbia University,
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博士畢業生，
05:21
I was deep in a publish-or-perish phase of my career.
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當時我的職業生涯是在於發布或滅亡的階段。
05:24
I had to write five pages a day
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我要為文章
05:26
towards papers
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每一天寫五頁，
05:28
or I would have to give up five dollars.
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否則我便要放棄五塊錢。
05:31
And when you try to execute these commitment devices,
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且當你嘗試執行這些承諾設備的時候，
05:34
you realize the devil is really in the details.
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你會意識到真正的苦處在於細節。
05:36
Because it's not that easy to get rid of five dollars.
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因為要擺脫五塊錢不是那麼容易。
05:39
I mean, you can't burn it; that's illegal.
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我的意思是，你可以不燒它，這是非法的。
05:42
And I thought, well I could give it to a charity
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我想，我可以把它捐贈給一個慈善機構，
05:44
or give it to my wife or something like that.
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或把它給我的妻子, 等等。
05:46
But then I thought, oh, I'm sending myself mixed messages.
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但轉念一想，哦，我是在給予自己混淆的訊息。
05:48
Because not writing is bad, but giving to charity is good.
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因為不寫作是不好，但給慈善機構是好的。
05:51
So then I would kind of justify not writing
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以給他人一種賜予, 那麼想
05:53
by giving a gift.
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我便有理由不寫作。
05:55
And then I kind of flipped that around and thought,
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然後，我會這樣的翻轉左右思想，
05:57
well I could give it to the neo-Nazis.
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我可以把它給予新納粹分子。
05:59
But then I was like, that's more bad than writing is good,
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但我便會想，這其實比寫作更壞，
06:02
and so that wouldn't work.
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這樣想行不通。
06:04
So ultimately, I just decided
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所以，最後我決定
06:06
I would leave it in an envelope on the subway.
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我會把它放入一個信封內並留在地鐵上。
06:09
Sometimes a good person would find it,
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有時一個好人會找到它，
06:11
sometimes a bad person would find it.
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有時一個壞人會找到它。
06:13
On average, it was just a completely pointless exchange of money
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平均而言，它只是一個完全沒有意義掉錢的方法，
06:16
that I would regret.
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以我至會後悔。
06:18
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
06:21
Such it is with commitment devices.
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它便是承諾的設備。
06:24
But despite my like for them,
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但儘管我喜歡它們，
06:28
there's two nagging concerns
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我一直有兩個
06:30
that I've always had about commitment devices,
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關於承諾設備的顧慮，
06:32
and you might feel this if you use them yourself.
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如果你使用它們自己, 你都可能會發覺到。
06:34
So the first is,
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第一個是，
06:36
when you've got one of these devices going,
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當你已經有了這些設備，
06:38
such as this contract to write everyday or pay,
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例如要經常寫作否則要付帳，
06:41
it's just a constant reminder
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它只是不斷地提醒
06:43
that you have no self-control.
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你有沒有自我控制的能力。
06:45
You're just telling yourself, "Without you, commitment device,
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你只是在告訴自己:「如果沒有你，承諾設備，
06:47
I am nothing, I have no self-discipline."
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我什麼也不是，我不能自律。」
06:50
And then when you're ever in a situation
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然後當你在一個沒有
06:52
where you don't have a commitment device in place --
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承諾設備安設的情況--
06:55
like, "Oh my God, that person's offering me a doughnut,
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「噢我的天，那個人要給我一個甜圈，
06:57
and I have no defense mechanism," --
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而我沒有任何的防禦機制，」--
06:59
you just eat it.
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你便把它吃掉了。
07:01
So I don't like the way that they take the power away from you.
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因此，我並不喜歡它們能夠有遠離你的權力。
07:04
I think self-discipline is something, it's like a muscle.
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我認為自律是一種東西，它像一塊肌肉。
07:07
The more you exercise it, the stronger it gets.
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你鍛煉它，它便更強壯。
07:10
The other problem with commitment devices
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承諾設備的另一個問題是，
07:12
is that you can always weasel your way out of them.
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你可以耍滑头逃脱它們。
07:15
You say, "Well, of course I can't write today,
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你會說：「好了，今天我當然不能寫作，
07:17
because I'm giving a TEDTalk and I have five media interviews,
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因為我要給TEDTalk演說, 以及5家媒體採訪，
07:20
and then I'm going to a cocktail party and then I'll be drunk after that.
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然後我要去一個雞尾酒會，然後我便會喝醉。
07:23
And so there's no way that this is going to work."
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所以根本沒有辦法執筆。」
07:26
So in effect, you are like Odysseus and the first mate
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這樣實際上，你像是奧德修斯和大副
07:28
in one person.
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混合為一人。
07:30
You're putting yourself, you're binding yourself,
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你把你自己，你綁定你自己，
07:33
and you're weaseling your way out of it,
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和你正在滑头地逃脱，
07:35
and then you're beating yourself up afterwards.
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然而之後你便會責備自己。」
07:37
So I've been working
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因此我一直在工作了
07:39
for about a decade now
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近十年，
07:41
on finding other ways
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在尋找其他的方法
07:43
to change people's relationship to the future self
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不使用承諾設備來改變
07:45
without using commitment devices.
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人與未來自的我的關係。
07:47
In particular, I'm interested in the relationship
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我的興趣特別是在於與
07:50
to the future financial self.
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未來自我財政的關係。
07:54
And this is a timely issue.
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這是一個涉及時間的問題。
07:56
I'm talking about the topic of saving.
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我說的是節儉積蓄的話題。
07:58
Now saving is a classic two selves problem.
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節能是一個典型的兩個自我的問題。
08:00
The present self does not want to save at all.
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如今的自我完全不希望儲蓄。
08:03
It wants to consume.
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它想花費。
08:05
Whereas the future self wants the present self to save.
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而未來的自我卻希望目前的自我儲蓄。
08:09
So this is a timely problem.
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這是一個涉及時間的問題。
08:11
We look at the savings rate
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看看我們的儲蓄率,
08:13
and it has been declining since the 1950s.
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它自50年代以來一直下降。
08:16
At the same time, the Retirement Risk Index,
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與此同時，退休風險指數，
08:19
the chance of not being able to meet your needs in retirement,
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未能在退休後滿足你需求的機會，
08:22
has been increasing.
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一直在上升。
08:24
And we're at a situation now
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而現在我們的情況是，
08:26
where for every three baby boomers,
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每三個嬰兒潮一代的人，
08:28
the McKinsey Global Institute predicts
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麥肯錫全球研究所預計，
08:30
that two will not be able to meet their pre-retirement needs
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在他們退休的時候。有兩個將無法
08:34
while they're in retirement.
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滿足其退休前的需要。
08:36
So what can we do about this?
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那我們可以做些什麼呢？
08:39
There's a philosopher, Derek Parfit,
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有一個哲學家，德瑞克•帕菲特，
08:42
who said some words that were inspiring to my coauthors and I.
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他說了一些對我和我的合著者甚有發啟性話的，
08:45
He said that, "We might neglect our future selves
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他說: 「我們可能會忽視我們未來的自我，
08:48
because of some failure of belief or imagination."
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皆因一些失敗的信念或想像力。」
08:52
That is to say,
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這就是說，
08:54
we somehow might not believe that we're going to get old,
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我們不知何故可能不相信我們會變老，
08:57
or we might not be able to imagine
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或我們可能無法想像
08:59
that we're going to get old some day.
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一天會變老。
09:01
On the one hand, it sounds ridiculous.
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一方面，這聽上去有些可笑。
09:03
Of course, we know that we're going to get old.
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當然，我們知道，我們無疑會變老。
09:05
But aren't there things that we believe and don't believe at the same time?
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我們是不是有一些我們在同一時間相信和不相信的東西呢？
09:08
So my coauthors and I have used computers,
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所以我和我的合著者使用電腦，
09:11
the greatest tool of our time,
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我們這個時代最偉大的工具，
09:13
to assist people's imagination
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以協助人們的想像力，
09:15
and help them imagine what it might be like
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並幫助他們想像進入未來
09:18
to go into the future.
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可能會是怎麼樣。
09:20
And I'll show you some of these tools right here.
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而我會在這裡告訴你其中一些工具。
09:23
The first is called the distribution builder.
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首先的是所謂分佈的建設。
09:25
It shows people what the future might be like
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由一百個在未來同樣可能
09:28
by showing them a hundred equally probable outcomes
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獲得的結果, 它顯示了
09:31
that might be obtained in the future.
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人在未來的可能。
09:33
Each outcome is shown by one of these markers,
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每一個結果由這些標誌物顯示，
09:36
and each sits on a row
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每個坐在一排，
09:38
that represents a level of wealth and retirement.
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代表了財富和退休的水平。
09:40
Being up at the top
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在頂部的
09:42
means that you're enjoying a high income in retirement.
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意味著你退休後享受高的收入。
09:44
Being down at the bottom
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在底部的
09:46
means that you're struggling to make ends meet.
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便意味著你掙扎地入不敷出。
09:48
When you make an investment,
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當你作出投資時，
09:50
what you're really saying is, "I accept
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你真的是在說:「我接受
09:52
that any one of these 100 things
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這100件事情中任何的一件
09:54
could happen to me and determine my wealth."
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都可能會發生在我身上，並會決定我的財富。」
09:56
Now you can try to move your outcomes around.
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刻下你可以嘗試將你的成果推動攪拌。
09:59
You can try to manipulate your fate, like this person is doing,
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你可以嘗試操縱自己的命運，這個人便正是這樣做，
10:02
but it costs you something to do it.
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但你這樣做要有代價。
10:04
It means that you have to save more today.
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這意味著你有今天要節省更多。
10:08
Once you find an investment that you're happy with,
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一旦你找到你合意的投資，
10:10
what people do is they click "done"
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只要點擊「完成」,
10:12
and the markers begin to disappear,
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標記會開始消失，
10:14
slowly, one by one.
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慢慢地，一個跟一個。
10:16
It simulates what it is like to invest in something
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它模擬投資的東西,
10:18
and to watch that investment pan out.
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和顯示投資的成績。
10:21
At the end, there will only be one marker left standing
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最後，只會剩下一個標記，
10:24
and it will determine our wealth in retirement.
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它將決定我們在退休的財富。
10:27
Yes, this person retired
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不錯，這個人
10:29
at 150 percent of their working income in retirement.
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在他在退休後的收入是工作時收入的150％。
10:33
They're making more money while retired
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他們退休時比工作時
10:35
than they were making while they were working.
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賺得更多。
10:37
If you're like most people,
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如果你像大多數人一樣，
10:39
just seeing that gave you a small sense of elation and joy --
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只是看到了這個你便會感到小小得意和喜悅--
10:43
just to think about making
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只是要想想
10:45
50 percent more money in retirement than before.
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退休時有比以前約50％更多的錢。
10:48
However, had you ended up on the very bottom,
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然而，倘若你在最底層，
10:50
it might have given you a slight sense
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它可能會給你一個輕微的
10:52
of dread and/or nausea
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恐懼和/或噁心的感覺,
10:54
thinking about struggling to get by in retirement.
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想到退休後在掙扎生活。
10:58
By using this tool over and over
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通過使用這個工具一遍又一遍
11:00
and simulating outcome after outcome,
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和模擬大量結果後，
11:03
people can understand
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人們可以理解，
11:05
that the investments and savings that they undertake today
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今天他們所承擔的儲蓄和投資
11:08
determine their well-being in the future.
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決定他們在未來的福祉。
11:10
Now people are motivated through emotions,
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人是通過情緒的刺激動機，
11:13
but different people find different things motivating.
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但不同的人是會以不同的東西感到激勵。
11:16
This is a simulation
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這是一個使用
11:19
that uses graphics,
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圖形的模擬，
11:21
but other people find motivating what money can buy,
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但其他人會看到錢可以買什麼而激勵感到，
11:23
not just numbers.
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不只是數字。
11:25
So here I made a distribution builder
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所以我製造一個生產分佈的建設器，
11:27
where instead of showing numerical outcomes,
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不是顯示數值結果，
11:30
I show people what those outcomes will get you,
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而是我告訴人們這些成果將會買得什麼,
11:33
in particular apartments that you can afford
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例如你退休每月有3000元,
11:35
if you're retiring on 3,000, 2,500,
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2500元,或2000元
11:38
2,000 dollars per month and so on.
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便會買得起的公寓等等。
11:41
As you move down the ladder of apartments,
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當你移動公寓的層次向下，
11:43
you see that they get worse and worse.
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你可以看到它們越來越差。
11:46
Some of them look like places I lived in as a graduate student.
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其中一些看起來像我作為一個研究生起居的地方。
11:50
And as you get to the very bottom,
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到最底層，
11:54
you're faced with the unfortunate reality
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你會面對不幸的現實，
11:56
that if you don't save anything for retirement,
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如果你不為退休儲蓄什麼，
11:58
you won't be able to afford any housing at all.
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你根本不會能夠負擔得起任何房屋。
12:01
Those are actual pictures of actual apartments
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這些實實在在都是在互聯網上
12:03
renting for that amount
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刊登廣告的圖片，
12:05
as advertised on the Internet.
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顯示租用公寓的數額。
12:07
The last thing I'll show you,
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最後我告訴你的一件事，
12:09
the last behavioral time machine,
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是一個行為時間機器，
12:11
is something that I created with Hal Hershfield,
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是我和Hal Hershfield合作創建的東西,
12:14
who was introduced to me by my coauthor on a previous project,
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他便是給我介紹之前提及的項目合著者的人，
12:17
Bill Sharpe.
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Bill Sharpe。
12:19
And what it is
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它是是一個
12:21
is an exploration into virtual reality.
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進入虛擬現實的探索。
12:23
So what we do is we take pictures of people --
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我們要做的是攝取人們的照片 --
12:26
in this case, college-age people --
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在這個例子，大學年齡的人--
12:28
and we use software to age them
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然後我們使用軟件變老他們的面容，
12:30
and show these people what they'll look like
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並顯示給他們看，他們在
12:33
when they're 60, 70, 80 years old.
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60, 70, 80歲時將會是什麼樣子。
12:35
And we try to test
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我們試圖測試
12:37
whether actually assisting your imagination
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實際協助你的想像力
12:40
by looking at the face of your future self
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來面對你未來的自我，
12:42
can change you investment behavior.
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是否可以改變你投資的作風。
12:44
So this is one of our experiments.
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這是我們的實驗之一。
12:47
Here we see the face of the young subject on the left.
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在這裡，我們看到在左邊的年輕人的面孔。
12:50
He's given a control
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他被給予一個控制，
12:52
that allows him to adjust his savings rate.
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讓他能夠調整自己的儲蓄率。
12:54
As he moves his savings rate down,
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當他將他的儲蓄率下降，
12:56
it means that he's saving zero
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意味著他的儲蓄為零時，
12:58
when it's all the way here at the left.
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直到最左邊。
13:00
You can see his current annual income --
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你可以看到他目前的年收入 --
13:02
this is the percentage of his paycheck that he can take home today --
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這是他今天可以帶回家的薪水百分比--
13:05
is quite high, 91 percent,
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是相當高，91％，
13:07
but his retirement income is quite low.
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但他退休後的收入是相當低。
13:09
He's going to retire on 44 percent
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他在退休時將會得到
13:11
of what he earned while he was working.
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他工作時44％的收入。
13:14
If he saves the maximum legal amount,
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如果他儲蓄法律上允許的最大金額，
13:17
his retirement income goes up,
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他退休後的收入便上升，
13:19
but he's unhappy
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但他不快樂，
13:21
because now he has less money on the left-hand side to spend today.
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因為現在他會有較少的錢在今天花。
13:25
Other conditions show people the future self.
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其他狀況展示人們未來的自我。
13:28
And from the future self's point of view, everything is in reverse.
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從未來自我的角度來看，一切都反向。
13:31
If you save very little,
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如果儲蓄得很少，
13:33
the future self is unhappy
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未來的自我以44％的收入,
13:35
living on 44 percent of the income.
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生活是不愉快的。
13:38
Whereas if the present self saves a lot,
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而如果目前的自我儲蓄了很多，
13:41
the future self is delighted,
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收入接近100％附近左右，
13:43
where the income is close up near 100 percent.
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未來的自我會很高興。
13:46
To bring this to a wider audience,
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要把這個更廣泛的受眾，
13:49
I've been working with Hal and Allianz
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我一直在與Hal和Allianz
13:52
to create something we call the behavioral time machine,
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創造一個我們稱之為行為時間機器的東西,
13:55
in which you not only get to see yourself in the future,
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你不僅能看到自己的未來，
13:58
but you get to see anticipated emotional reactions
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你還能看到預期不同退休財富水平
14:01
to different levels of retirement wealth.
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的情緒反應。
14:04
So for instance,
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例如，
14:06
here is somebody using the tool.
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這裡是有人在使用這工具。
14:08
And just watch the facial expressions
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只看看當他
14:10
as they move the slider.
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移動滑塊的面部表情。
14:12
The younger face gets happier and happier, saving nothing.
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當儲蓄越少, 年輕的臉變得更快樂。
14:14
The older face is miserable.
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老的臉是苦不堪言。
14:16
And slowly, slowly we're bringing it up to a moderate savings rate.
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慢慢地，我們將它移動到中等的儲蓄率。
14:18
And then it's a high savings rate.
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然後，一個高儲蓄率。
14:20
The younger face is getting unhappy.
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年輕的臉是越來越不滿。
14:22
The older face is quite pleased
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年長的臉對決定是
14:24
with the decision.
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相當滿意。
14:27
We're going to see if this has an effect on what people do.
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我們要看看這會否有影響人的效果。
14:29
And what's nice about it
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它的好處是，
14:31
is it's not something that biasing people actually,
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因為實際上不是偏置人,
14:34
because as one face smiles,
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以當一面在笑，
14:36
the other face frowns.
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另一面便皺眉。
14:38
It's not telling you which way to put the slider,
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它不會告訴你應該如何移動滑塊，
14:40
it's just reminding you that you are
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它只是提醒你，
14:43
connected to and legally tied to
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你是跟未來的自我
14:45
this future self.
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息息相關。
14:47
Your decisions today are going to determine its well-being.
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你今天的決定是以確定其福祉。
14:50
And that's something that's easy to forget.
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而這是很容易忘記的東西。
14:53
This use of virtual reality
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使用這種虛擬現實,
14:56
is not just good for making people look older.
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不僅僅是讓人們看看年邁的面貌。
14:58
There are programs you can get
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還有其他程式讓你可以
15:00
to see how people might look
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看到人們如果吸煙,
15:02
if they smoke, if they get too much exposure to the sun,
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如果他們過多地暴露在陽光下的結果,
15:05
if they gain weight and so on.
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或如果他們體重增加,等等。
15:07
And what's good is,
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好處是,
15:09
unlike in the experiments that Hal and myself ran with Russ Smith,
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和我,Hal, 和Russ Smith在實驗不同的是，
15:12
you don't have to program these by yourself
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你不用自己手動編這些程式
15:14
in order to see the virtual reality.
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才能看到虛擬的現實。
15:17
There are applications you can get on smartphones for just a few dollars
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只是幾元錢一個，你便可以在智能手機上
15:20
that do the same thing.
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做到同樣的事情。
15:22
This is actually a picture of Hal, my coauthor.
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這圖片實際上是Hal，我的合著者。
15:24
You might recognize him from the previous demos.
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你可能從以前的演示中認出他。
15:27
And just for kicks we ran his picture
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我們只是玩玩着, 把他的照片
15:30
through the balding, aging and weight gain software
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輸入禿頂，衰老和體重增加的軟件，
15:33
to see how he would look.
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看看他會變成怎樣。
15:35
Hal is here, so I think we owe it to him as well as yourself
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Hal是在這裡，所以我覺得我們應該為尊重他
15:38
to disabuse you of that last image.
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而毀滅最後的圖片。
15:42
And I'll close it there.
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而我以此終結。
15:44
On behalf of Hal and myself,
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代表Hal和我本人，
15:46
I wish all the best to your present and future selves.
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我祝愿你現在和未來的自我都美好。
15:48
Thank you.
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謝謝。
15:50
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Daniel Goldstein - Behavioral economistDaniel Goldstein studies how we make decisions about our financial selves -- both now and in the future,
Why you should listen
Daniel Goldstein studies decision-making -- especially how humans make economic and social decisions over the course of our lives, and how we can give ourselves the right incentives, reminders, and rules of thumb to make long-term smart choices rather than short-term fun choices. He runs the blog Decision Science News. Dan is Principal Researcher at Microsoft Research, a former professor at London Business School, and member of the academic advisory board of the Behavioural Insights Team in the UK (aka the Nudge Unit). In 2015, he became President of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making, the largest academic society in Behavioral Economics.
Daniel Goldstein | Speaker | TED.com