TEDSummit
Alexander Betts: Why Brexit happened -- and what to do next
Aleksandar Bets (Alexander Betts): Zašto se dogodio Bregzit - i šta činiti dalje
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Sramotno smo nesvesni toga koliko su podeljena naša društva, i Bregzit je izrastao iz dubokog, neispitanog razodra između onih koji se plaše globalizacije i onih koji je prihvataju, navodi sociolog Aleksandar Bets. Kako se sada razračunati sa tim strahom, kao i sa rastućim razočaranjem u politički establišment, dok odbijamo da se predamo ksenofobiji i nacionalizmu? Pridružite se Betsu dok priča o četiri koraka nakon Bregzita ka inkluzivnijem svetu.
Alexander Betts - Social scientist
Alexander Betts explores ways societies might empower refugees rather than pushing them to the margins. Full bio
Alexander Betts explores ways societies might empower refugees rather than pushing them to the margins. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
I am British.
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Ja sam Britanac.
00:15
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
00:17
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
00:20
Never before has the phrase
"I am British" elicited so much pity.
"I am British" elicited so much pity.
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Ta rečenica nikada pre
nije izazivala toliko sažaljenja.
nije izazivala toliko sažaljenja.
00:24
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
00:26
I come from an island
where many of us like to believe
where many of us like to believe
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Dolazim sa ostrva gde mnogi od nas veruju
00:29
there's been a lot of continuity
over the last thousand years.
over the last thousand years.
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da postoji priličan kontinuitet
tokom proteklih hiljadu godina.
tokom proteklih hiljadu godina.
Istorijski smo uglavnom mi bili ti
koji su nametali promene drugima,
koji su nametali promene drugima,
00:33
We tend to have historically
imposed change on others
imposed change on others
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00:36
but done much less of it ourselves.
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ali smo se sami retko menjali.
00:39
So it came as an immense shock to me
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Tako da je za mene bio ogroman šok
00:41
when I woke up on the morning of June 24
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kada sam se probudio jutra 24. juna
00:44
to discover that my country
had voted to leave the European Union,
had voted to leave the European Union,
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i otkrio da je moja zemlja izglasala
da napusti Evropsku uniju,
da napusti Evropsku uniju,
00:48
my Prime Minister had resigned,
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da je premijer dao ostavku
00:50
and Scotland was considering a referendum
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i da je Škotska razmatrala referendum
00:53
that could bring to an end
the very existence of the United Kingdom.
the very existence of the United Kingdom.
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koji bi mogao da dovede u pitanje
samo postojanje Ujedinjenog Kraljevstva.
samo postojanje Ujedinjenog Kraljevstva.
00:58
So that was an immense shock for me,
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To je za mene bio ogroman šok,
01:01
and it was an immense
shock for many people,
shock for many people,
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kao i za mnoge druge ljude,
01:05
but it was also something
that, over the following several days,
that, over the following several days,
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ali je i bilo nešto
što je tokom nekoliko narednih dana
što je tokom nekoliko narednih dana
01:08
created a complete political meltdown
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stvorilo potpuno političko rasulo
01:11
in my country.
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u mojoj zemlji.
01:12
There were calls for a second referendum,
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Tražio se drugi referendum,
01:15
almost as if, following a sports match,
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skoro kao kada bi nakon sportskog meča
01:17
we could ask the opposition for a replay.
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od protivnika tražili revanš.
01:20
Everybody was blaming everybody else.
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Svako je krivio svakog drugog.
01:23
People blamed the Prime Minister
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Ljudi su krivili premijera
01:24
for calling the referendum
in the first place.
in the first place.
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što je uopšte raspisao referendum.
01:27
They blamed the leader of the opposition
for not fighting it hard enough.
for not fighting it hard enough.
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Krivili su vođu opozicije
što se nije dovoljno žustro borio.
što se nije dovoljno žustro borio.
01:30
The young accused the old.
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Mladi su krivili stare.
01:31
The educated blamed
the less well-educated.
the less well-educated.
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Obrazovni su krivili one manje obrazovane.
01:35
That complete meltdown was made even worse
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To potpuno rasulo je pogoršao
01:38
by the most tragic element of it:
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najtragičniji element svega:
01:40
levels of xenophobia and racist abuse
in the streets of Britain
in the streets of Britain
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nivoi ksenofobije i rasne zloupotrebe
na ulicama Britanije
na ulicama Britanije
01:44
at a level that I have never seen before
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na nivou koji do sada nisam video
01:46
in my lifetime.
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u svom životu.
01:49
People are now talking about whether
my country is becoming a Little England,
my country is becoming a Little England,
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Ljudi sada pričaju o tome
da li moja zemlja postaje Mala Engleska,
da li moja zemlja postaje Mala Engleska,
01:54
or, as one of my colleagues put it,
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ili kako kaže jedan moj kolega,
01:56
whether we're about to become
a 1950s nostalgia theme park
a 1950s nostalgia theme park
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da li ćemo postati nostalgični
zabavni park iz 50-ih godina
zabavni park iz 50-ih godina
02:00
floating in the Atlantic Ocean.
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koji pluta u Atlantskom okeanu.
02:02
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
02:05
But my question is really,
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Ali moje pitanje je zapravo,
02:08
should we have the degree of shock
that we've experienced since?
that we've experienced since?
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da li treba da nas prati osećanje šoka
koje doživljavamo sve od tad?
koje doživljavamo sve od tad?
02:13
Was it something
that took place overnight?
that took place overnight?
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Da li je to nešto
što se desilo preko noći?
što se desilo preko noći?
02:15
Or are there deeper structural factors
that have led us to where we are today?
that have led us to where we are today?
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Ili postoje dublji strukturni faktori
koji su nas doveli tu gde smo danas?
koji su nas doveli tu gde smo danas?
02:20
So I want to take a step back
and ask two very basic questions.
and ask two very basic questions.
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Želim da načinim korak unazad
i postavim dva veoma prosta pitanja.
i postavim dva veoma prosta pitanja.
02:24
First, what does Brexit represent,
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Prvo, šta predstavlja Bregzit,
02:27
not just for my country,
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ne samo za moju zemlju,
02:29
but for all of us around the world?
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već za sve nas širom sveta?
02:32
And second, what can we do about it?
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I drugo, šta možemo da uradimo
povodom toga?
povodom toga?
02:35
How should we all respond?
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Kako da odgovorimo na to?
02:37
So first, what does Brexit represent?
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Prvo, šta predstavlja Bregzit?
02:40
Hindsight is a wonderful thing.
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Naknadna pamet je divna stvar.
02:43
Brexit teaches us many things
about our society
about our society
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Bregzit nas uči toliko toga
o našem društvu
o našem društvu
02:47
and about societies around the world.
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i o društvima širom sveta.
02:51
It highlights in ways
that we seem embarrassingly unaware of
that we seem embarrassingly unaware of
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Na razne načine naglašava to
da smo sramotno nesvesni toga
da smo sramotno nesvesni toga
02:54
how divided our societies are.
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koliko su podeljena naša društva.
02:56
The vote split along lines of age,
education, class and geography.
education, class and geography.
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Glasovi su bili podeljeni po godinama,
obrazovanju, klasi i mestu glasanja.
obrazovanju, klasi i mestu glasanja.
03:03
Young people didn't turn out
to vote in great numbers,
to vote in great numbers,
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Nije izašlo mnogo mladih na glasanje,
03:06
but those that did wanted to remain.
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ali oni koji su glasali,
glasali su za ostanak.
glasali su za ostanak.
03:08
Older people really wanted
to leave the European Union.
to leave the European Union.
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Stariji ljudi su zaista želeli
da napuste Evropsku uniju.
da napuste Evropsku uniju.
03:12
Geographically, it was London and Scotland
that most strongly committed
that most strongly committed
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Geografski, London i Škotska
bili su najposvećeniji tome
bili su najposvećeniji tome
03:15
to being part of the European Union,
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da ostanu deo Evropske unije,
03:17
while in other parts of the country
there was very strong ambivalence.
there was very strong ambivalence.
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dok je u drugim delovima zemlje
postojala veoma jaka ambivalentnost.
postojala veoma jaka ambivalentnost.
03:23
Those divisions are things we really
need to recognize and take seriously.
need to recognize and take seriously.
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Te podele su stvari koje zaista moramo
da prepoznamo i shvatimo ozbiljno.
da prepoznamo i shvatimo ozbiljno.
03:27
But more profoundly,
the vote teaches us something
the vote teaches us something
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Ali na dubljem nivou,
glasanje nas uči nečemu
glasanje nas uči nečemu
03:30
about the nature of politics today.
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o prirodi današnje politike.
03:32
Contemporary politics
is no longer just about right and left.
is no longer just about right and left.
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Savremena politika
više se ne tiče samo desnice i levice.
više se ne tiče samo desnice i levice.
03:36
It's no longer just about tax and spend.
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Ne tiče se više samo poreza i troškova.
03:39
It's about globalization.
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Tiče se globalizacije.
03:41
The fault line of contemporary politics is
between those that embrace globalization
between those that embrace globalization
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Raskol u savremenoj poltici je
među onima koji prihvataju globalizaciju
među onima koji prihvataju globalizaciju
03:46
and those that fear globalization.
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i onima koji je se plaše.
03:50
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
03:55
If we look at why
those who wanted to leave --
those who wanted to leave --
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Ukoliko pogledamo zašto
oni koji su želeli da odu -
oni koji su želeli da odu -
03:58
we call them "Leavers,"
as opposed to "Remainers" --
as opposed to "Remainers" --
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zovemo ih "odlazeći",
naspram "ostajućih" -
naspram "ostajućih" -
04:00
we see two factors in the opinion polls
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vidimo dva faktora u anketama
04:03
that really mattered.
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koji su bili zaista bitni.
04:04
The first was immigration,
and the second sovereignty,
and the second sovereignty,
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Prvi je bio imigracija,
a drugi suverenitet
a drugi suverenitet
04:07
and these represent a desire for people
to take back control of their own lives
to take back control of their own lives
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i oni predstavljaju želju mnogih
da povrate kontrolu nad svojim životima
da povrate kontrolu nad svojim životima
04:13
and the feeling that they
are unrepresented by politicians.
are unrepresented by politicians.
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i osećanje da ih političari
ne predstavljaju dovoljno.
ne predstavljaju dovoljno.
04:18
But those ideas are ones
that signify fear and alienation.
that signify fear and alienation.
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Ali te ideje pojačavaju strah i otuđenje.
04:23
They represent a retreat
back towards nationalism and borders
back towards nationalism and borders
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One predstavljaju povlačenje nazad
ka nacionalizmu i granicama
ka nacionalizmu i granicama
04:29
in ways that many of us would reject.
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na načine koji bi mnogi od nas odbacili.
04:31
What I want to suggest is the picture
is more complicated than that,
is more complicated than that,
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Želim da predložim da je slika
mnogo komplikovanija od toga,
mnogo komplikovanija od toga,
04:34
that liberal internationalists,
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da liberalni internacionalisti
04:36
like myself, and I firmly
include myself in that picture,
include myself in that picture,
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poput mene, a ja sebe čvrsto
pozicioniram u ovaj okvir,
pozicioniram u ovaj okvir,
04:39
need to write ourselves
back into the picture
back into the picture
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moraju da sebe ponovo ubace u priču
04:42
in order to understand
how we've got to where we are today.
how we've got to where we are today.
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kako bismo razumeli
kako smo došli tu gde smo danas.
kako smo došli tu gde smo danas.
04:47
When we look at the voting patterns
across the United Kingdom,
across the United Kingdom,
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Kada pogledamo šablone glasanja
kroz Ujedinjeno Kraljevstvo,
kroz Ujedinjeno Kraljevstvo,
04:50
we can visibly see the divisions.
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jasno se vide podele.
04:53
The blue areas show Remain
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Plava područja su ostajanje
04:55
and the red areas Leave.
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a crvena napuštanje.
04:57
When I looked at this,
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Kada sam pogledao ovo,
04:59
what personally struck me
was the very little time in my life
was the very little time in my life
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lično me je pogodila
veoma mala količina vremena
veoma mala količina vremena
05:02
I've actually spent
in many of the red areas.
in many of the red areas.
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koju sam zapravo proveo
u mnogim crvenim područjima.
u mnogim crvenim područjima.
05:06
I suddenly realized that,
looking at the top 50 areas in the UK
looking at the top 50 areas in the UK
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Odjednom sam shvatio da,
gledajući gornjih 50 područja,
gledajući gornjih 50 područja,
koja imaju najviše glasova za napuštanje,
05:11
that have the strongest Leave vote,
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05:13
I've spent a combined total
of four days of my life in those areas.
of four days of my life in those areas.
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proveo sam ukupno četiri dana
u tim područjima.
u tim područjima.
05:19
In some of those places,
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U nekim od tih mesta
05:21
I didn't even know the names
of the voting districts.
of the voting districts.
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nisam ni znao imena okruga za glasanje.
05:24
It was a real shock to me,
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Za mene je to bio pravi šok
05:26
and it suggested that people like me
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i naznaka da ljudi poput mene
05:28
who think of ourselves
as inclusive, open and tolerant,
as inclusive, open and tolerant,
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koji za sebe misle
da su inkluzivni, otvoreni i tolerantni,
da su inkluzivni, otvoreni i tolerantni,
05:32
perhaps don't know
our own countries and societies
our own countries and societies
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možda ne znaju sopstvene zemlje i društva
05:35
nearly as well as we like to believe.
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ni blizu onome koliko verujemo.
05:38
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
05:48
And the challenge that comes from that
is we need to find a new way
is we need to find a new way
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Izazov koji proističe iz toga
je da moramo da pronađemo novi način
je da moramo da pronađemo novi način
05:52
to narrate globalization to those people,
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da prenesemo globalizaciju ovim ljudima,
05:55
to recognize that for those people who
have not necessarily been to university,
have not necessarily been to university,
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da prepoznamo da za ove ljude
koji možda nisu išli na fakultet,
koji možda nisu išli na fakultet,
05:59
who haven't necessarily
grown up with the Internet,
grown up with the Internet,
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koji možda nisu odrasli uz internet,
06:01
that don't get opportunities to travel,
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koji nemaju prilike za putovanja,
06:04
they may be unpersuaded
by the narrative that we find persuasive
by the narrative that we find persuasive
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možda im nije privlačna priča
koju mi smatramo privlačnom
koju mi smatramo privlačnom
06:07
in our often liberal bubbles.
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u svojim često liberalnim mehurima.
06:10
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
06:15
It means that we need to reach out
more broadly and understand.
more broadly and understand.
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To znači da moramo da posegnemo šire
i da razumemo.
i da razumemo.
06:19
In the Leave vote, a minority have peddled
the politics of fear and hatred,
the politics of fear and hatred,
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Kod glasanja za napuštanje,
manjina je gurala politiku straha i mržnje
manjina je gurala politiku straha i mržnje
06:25
creating lies and mistrust
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i stvarala laži i nepoverenje,
06:28
around, for instance,
the idea that the vote on Europe
the idea that the vote on Europe
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na primer oko ideje
da bi glas koji se tiče Evrope
da bi glas koji se tiče Evrope
06:31
could reduce the number of refugees
and asylum-seekers coming to Europe,
and asylum-seekers coming to Europe,
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smanjio broj izbeglica i azilanata
koji dolaze u Evropu,
koji dolaze u Evropu,
06:35
when the vote on leaving
had nothing to do with immigration
had nothing to do with immigration
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iako se glas za napuštanje
uopšte nije ticao imigracija
uopšte nije ticao imigracija
06:38
from outside the European Union.
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iz područja van Evropske unije.
06:41
But for a significant majority
of the Leave voters
of the Leave voters
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Ali za značajnu većinu
glasača za napuštanje,
glasača za napuštanje,
06:44
the concern was disillusionment
with the political establishment.
with the political establishment.
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briga je bila nepoverenje
u politički establišment.
u politički establišment.
06:48
This was a protest vote for many,
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Ovo je za mnoge bilo protestno glasanje,
06:50
a sense that nobody represented them,
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osećaj da ih niko ne predstavlja,
06:53
that they couldn't find
a political party that spoke for them,
a political party that spoke for them,
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da nisu mogli da nađu stranku
koja ih je zastupala
koja ih je zastupala
06:56
and so they rejected
that political establishment.
that political establishment.
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i tako su odbili taj establišment.
07:01
This replicates around Europe
and much of the liberal democratic world.
and much of the liberal democratic world.
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Ovo odzvanja širom Evrope
i većinom liberalnog demokratskog sveta.
i većinom liberalnog demokratskog sveta.
07:06
We see it with the rise in popularity
of Donald Trump in the United States,
of Donald Trump in the United States,
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To vidimo u povećanju popularnosti
Donalda Trampa u SAD-u,
Donalda Trampa u SAD-u,
07:11
with the growing nationalism
of Viktor Orbán in Hungary,
of Viktor Orbán in Hungary,
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sa rastućim nacionalizmom
Viktora Orbana u Mađarskoj,
Viktora Orbana u Mađarskoj,
07:15
with the increase in popularity
of Marine Le Pen in France.
of Marine Le Pen in France.
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sa rastom popularnosti
Marin le Pen u Francuskoj.
Marin le Pen u Francuskoj.
07:20
The specter of Brexit
is in all of our societies.
is in all of our societies.
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Spektar Bregzita je
u svim našim društvima.
u svim našim društvima.
07:25
So the question I think we need to ask
is my second question,
is my second question,
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Pitanje koje treba da postavimo
je moje drugo pitanje,
je moje drugo pitanje,
07:28
which is how should we
collectively respond?
collectively respond?
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a to je, kako treba
da odgovorimo zajednički?
da odgovorimo zajednički?
07:31
For all of us who care about creating
liberal, open, tolerant societies,
liberal, open, tolerant societies,
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Za sve nas kojima je stalo do stvaranja
liberalnih, otvorenih,
tolerantnih društava,
tolerantnih društava,
07:37
we urgently need a new vision,
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hitno nam je potrebna nova vizija,
07:39
a vision of a more tolerant,
inclusive globalization,
inclusive globalization,
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vizija tolerantnije,
inkluzivnije globalizacije,
inkluzivnije globalizacije,
07:43
one that brings people with us
rather than leaving them behind.
rather than leaving them behind.
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one koja zbližava ljude s nama,
umesto da ih ostavlja iza.
umesto da ih ostavlja iza.
07:48
That vision of globalization
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Ta vizija globalizacije
07:50
is one that has to start by a recognition
of the positive benefits of globalization.
of the positive benefits of globalization.
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je ona koja mora da počne prepoznavanjem
pozitivnih efekata globalizacije.
pozitivnih efekata globalizacije.
07:55
The consensus amongst economists
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Ekonomisti se slažu
07:58
is that free trade,
the movement of capital,
the movement of capital,
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da su slobodna trgovina,
kretanje kapitala,
kretanje kapitala,
08:00
the movement of people across borders
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kretanje ljudi preko granica,
08:02
benefit everyone on aggregate.
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korisni za sve.
08:05
The consensus amongst
international relations scholars
international relations scholars
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Akademici iz polja međunarodnih odnosa
08:08
is that globalization
brings interdependence,
brings interdependence,
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slažu se da globalizacija donosi
međusobnu zavisnost,
međusobnu zavisnost,
08:10
which brings cooperation and peace.
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što dovodi do saradnje i mira.
08:13
But globalization
also has redistributive effects.
also has redistributive effects.
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Ali globalizacija takođe ima
i efekte preraspodele.
i efekte preraspodele.
08:18
It creates winners and losers.
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Ona stvara gubitnike i pobednike.
08:21
To take the example of migration,
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Uzmimo primer imigracije,
08:23
we know that immigration is a net positive
for the economy as a whole
for the economy as a whole
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znamo da je imigracija neto pozitivna
za ekonomiju u globalu
za ekonomiju u globalu
08:26
under almost all circumstances.
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pod skoro svim okolnostima.
08:30
But we also have to be very aware
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Ali takođe moramo biti veoma svesni
08:33
that there are
redistributive consequences,
redistributive consequences,
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da postoje posledice preraspodele,
08:36
that importantly, low-skilled immigration
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da je bitno da imigracija
radnika niske kvalifikacije
radnika niske kvalifikacije
08:39
can lead to a reduction in wages
for the most impoverished in our societies
for the most impoverished in our societies
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može dovesti do smanjenja plata
za najsiromašnije u našim društvima
za najsiromašnije u našim društvima
08:44
and also put pressure on house prices.
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kao i da vrši pritisak na cene nekretnina.
08:46
That doesn't detract
from the fact that it's positive,
from the fact that it's positive,
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To ne menja činjenicu da je pozitivna,
08:48
but it means more people
have to share in those benefits
have to share in those benefits
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ali znači da više ljudi
mora da deli te prednosti
mora da deli te prednosti
08:51
and recognize them.
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i da ih prepozna.
08:55
In 2002, the former Secretary-General
of the United Nations, Kofi Annan,
of the United Nations, Kofi Annan,
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Godine 2002, bivši sekretar
Ujedinjenih nacija, Kofi Anan,
Ujedinjenih nacija, Kofi Anan,
09:00
gave a speech at Yale University,
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održao je govor na univerzitetu Jejl
09:03
and that speech was on the topic
of inclusive globalization.
of inclusive globalization.
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i govor se ticao
teme inkluzivne globalizacije.
teme inkluzivne globalizacije.
09:07
That was the speech
in which he coined that term.
in which he coined that term.
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To je bio govor
gde je on skovao taj izraz.
gde je on skovao taj izraz.
09:10
And he said, and I paraphrase,
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Rekao je, parafraziram:
09:12
"The glass house of globalization
has to be open to all
has to be open to all
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"Kuća od stakla globalizacije
mora biti otvorena svima
mora biti otvorena svima
09:18
if it is to remain secure.
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ukoliko želimo da ostane bezbedna.
09:21
Bigotry and ignorance
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Predrasude i neznanje
09:24
are the ugly face of exclusionary
and antagonistic globalization."
and antagonistic globalization."
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su ružno lice isključive
i antagonističke globalizacije."
i antagonističke globalizacije."
09:31
That idea of inclusive globalization
was briefly revived in 2008
was briefly revived in 2008
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Ta ideja inkluzivne globalizacije
nakratko je oživljena 2008.
nakratko je oživljena 2008.
09:36
in a conference on progressive governance
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na konferenciji o progresivnoj vladavini
09:38
involving many of the leaders
of European countries.
of European countries.
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gde je bilo mnogo vođa evropskih zemalja.
09:43
But amid austerity
and the financial crisis of 2008,
and the financial crisis of 2008,
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Ali usred mera štednje
i finansijske krize 2008,
i finansijske krize 2008,
09:47
the concept disappeared
almost without a trace.
almost without a trace.
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zamisao je nestala skoro bez traga.
09:50
Globalization has been taken
to support a neoliberal agenda.
to support a neoliberal agenda.
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Za globalizaciju se kaže
da podržava neoliberalni poredak.
da podržava neoliberalni poredak.
09:54
It's perceived to be
part of an elite agenda
part of an elite agenda
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Smatraju je delom elitnog poretka
09:57
rather than something that benefits all.
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umesto nečim što doprinosi svima.
10:00
And it needs to be reclaimed
on a far more inclusive basis
on a far more inclusive basis
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Ona se mora vratiti nazad
mnogo inkluzivnijim osnovama
mnogo inkluzivnijim osnovama
10:03
than it is today.
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nego što je to danas.
10:05
So the question is,
how can we achieve that goal?
how can we achieve that goal?
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Pitanje je, kako postići taj cilj?
10:09
How can we balance on the one hand
addressing fear and alienation
addressing fear and alienation
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Kako, sa jedne strane, balansirati
borbu sa strahom i otuđenjem
borbu sa strahom i otuđenjem
10:14
while on the other hand
refusing vehemently
refusing vehemently
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dok sa druge strane žestoko odbijamo
10:17
to give in to xenophobia and nationalism?
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da se predamo ksenofobiji i nacionalizmu?
10:21
That is the question for all of us.
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To je pitanje za sve nas.
10:23
And I think, as a social scientist,
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Kao sociolog,
10:25
that social science
offers some places to start.
offers some places to start.
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mislim da sociologija nudi
neka mesta za početak.
neka mesta za početak.
10:29
Our transformation has to be about
both ideas and about material change,
both ideas and about material change,
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Naša transformacija mora se ticati
i ideja i materijalne promene
i ideja i materijalne promene
10:34
and I want to give you four ideas
as a starting point.
as a starting point.
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i želim da vam dam četiri ideje
kao polazne tačke.
kao polazne tačke.
10:37
The first relates to the idea
of civic education.
of civic education.
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Prva se odnosi na ideju
građanskog obrazovanja.
građanskog obrazovanja.
10:42
What stands out from Brexit
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Iz Bregzita proizilazi
10:44
is the gap between public perception
and empirical reality.
and empirical reality.
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razdor između percepcije javnosti
i empirijske stvarnosti.
i empirijske stvarnosti.
10:48
It's been suggested that we've moved
to a postfactual society,
to a postfactual society,
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Kažu da smo se prebacili
u postčinjenično društvo,
u postčinjenično društvo,
10:52
where evidence and truth no longer matter,
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gde dokazi i istine nisu bitni
10:54
and lies have equal status
to the clarity of evidence.
to the clarity of evidence.
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i laži imaju jednak status
kao jasnoća dokaza.
kao jasnoća dokaza.
10:58
So how can we --
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Kako onda da -
11:00
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
11:02
How can we rebuild respect for truth
and evidence into our liberal democracies?
and evidence into our liberal democracies?
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Kako onda da povratimo
poštovanje za istinu i dokaze
poštovanje za istinu i dokaze
u svoje liberalne demokratije?
11:08
It has to begin with education,
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Mora se početi obrazovanjem,
11:10
but it has to start with the recognition
that there are huge gaps.
that there are huge gaps.
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ali mora se početi priznavanjem
da postoje ogromni jazovi.
da postoje ogromni jazovi.
11:14
In 2014, the pollster Ipsos MORI
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Godine 2014, Ipsos MORI
11:18
published a survey
on attitudes to immigration,
on attitudes to immigration,
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objavio je istraživanje
o stavovima o imigraciji
o stavovima o imigraciji
11:21
and it showed that as numbers
of immigrants increase,
of immigrants increase,
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i pokazalo je da kako se povećava
broj imigranata,
broj imigranata,
11:26
so public concern
with immigration also increases,
with immigration also increases,
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tako raste i zabrinutost javnosti
o imigraciji,
o imigraciji,
11:29
although it obviously
didn't unpack causality,
didn't unpack causality,
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iako to očigledno
ne podrazumeva uzročnost,
ne podrazumeva uzročnost,
11:31
because this could equally be to do
not so much with numbers
not so much with numbers
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jer i ovo ne bi moralo toliko
da se tiče brojeva
da se tiče brojeva
11:34
but the political
and media narrative around it.
and media narrative around it.
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koliko političke
i medijske priče iza njih.
i medijske priče iza njih.
11:37
But the same survey also revealed
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Ali isto istraživanje je otkrilo
11:41
huge public misinformation
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veliku dezinformisanost javnosti
11:43
and misunderstanding
about the nature of immigration.
about the nature of immigration.
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i nesporazum oko prirode imigracije.
11:47
For example, in these attitudes
in the United Kingdom,
in the United Kingdom,
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Na primer, u ovim stavovima
širom Ujedinjenog Kraljevstva,
širom Ujedinjenog Kraljevstva,
11:50
the public believed that levels of asylum
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javnost je verovala da su nivoi azila
11:53
were a greater proportion
of immigration than they were,
of immigration than they were,
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bili u većoj proporciji iz imigracije
nego što su bili
nego što su bili
11:56
but they also believed
the levels of educational migration
the levels of educational migration
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ali su takođe verovali da su nivoi
imigracije zbog obrazovanja
imigracije zbog obrazovanja
12:00
were far lower as a proportion
of overall migration
of overall migration
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mnogo niži u ukupnoj proporciji imigracije
12:03
than they actually are.
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nego što su zaista bili.
12:05
So we have to address this misinformation,
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Moramo da se pozabavimo
ovom dezinformacijom,
ovom dezinformacijom,
12:07
the gap between perception and reality
on key aspects of globalization.
on key aspects of globalization.
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jazom između utiska i stvarnosti
kod ključnih aspekata globalizacije.
kod ključnih aspekata globalizacije.
A to ne može prosto biti nešto
što ćemo ostaviti našim školama,
što ćemo ostaviti našim školama,
12:12
And that can't just be something
that's left to our schools,
that's left to our schools,
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12:15
although that's important
to begin at an early age.
to begin at an early age.
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iako je bitno početi s time
u ranom dobu.
u ranom dobu.
12:17
It has to be about lifelong
civic participation
civic participation
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Mora se ticati doživotne
građanske uključenosti
građanske uključenosti
12:20
and public engagement
that we all encourage as societies.
that we all encourage as societies.
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i angažmana javnosti koji svi mi
podržavamo kao društva.
podržavamo kao društva.
12:26
The second thing
that I think is an opportunity
that I think is an opportunity
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Druga stvar za koju mislim da je prilika
12:28
is the idea to encourage more interaction
across diverse communities.
across diverse communities.
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je ideja da ohrabri više interakcije
među različitim zajednicama.
među različitim zajednicama.
12:33
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
12:37
One of the things that stands out
for me very strikingly,
for me very strikingly,
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Jedna od stvari koja se meni
izričito ističe,
izričito ističe,
gledajući na stavove prema imigraciji
u Ujedinjenom Kraljevstvu,
u Ujedinjenom Kraljevstvu,
12:40
looking at immigration attitudes
in the United Kingdom,
in the United Kingdom,
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12:43
is that ironically,
the regions of my country
the regions of my country
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je da ironično, delovi moje zemlje
koji su najtolerantniji prema imigrantima
12:46
that are the most tolerant of immigrants
225
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1905
12:48
have the highest numbers of immigrants.
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imaju najveći broj imigranata.
12:51
So for instance, London and the Southeast
have the highest numbers of immigrants,
have the highest numbers of immigrants,
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Na primer, London i jugoistok zemlje
imaju najviši broj imigranata
imaju najviši broj imigranata
12:55
and they are also by far
the most tolerant areas.
the most tolerant areas.
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i takođe su daleko
najtolerantnija područja.
najtolerantnija područja.
12:58
It's those areas of the country
that have the lowest levels of immigration
that have the lowest levels of immigration
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Oni delovi zemlje koji imaju
najniže nivoe imigracije
najniže nivoe imigracije
13:02
that actually are the most exclusionary
and intolerant towards migrants.
and intolerant towards migrants.
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su zapravo najisključiviji
i najnetolerantniji prema migrantima.
i najnetolerantniji prema migrantima.
13:07
So we need to encourage exchange programs.
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Moramo da podstičemo programe razmene.
13:09
We need to ensure that older generations
who maybe can't travel
who maybe can't travel
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Moramo da se potrudimo
da starije generacije
da starije generacije
koje možda ne mogu da putuju
13:13
get access to the Internet.
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imaju pristup internetu.
Moramo da podstaknemo,
čak i na lokalnom i državnom nivou,
čak i na lokalnom i državnom nivou,
13:15
We need to encourage,
even on a local and national level,
even on a local and national level,
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13:18
more movement, more participation,
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više kretanja, učestvovanja,
13:20
more interaction
with people who we don't know
with people who we don't know
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više interakcije sa ljudima
koje ne poznajemo
koje ne poznajemo
13:22
and whose views we might
not necessarily agree with.
not necessarily agree with.
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i sa čijim stanovištima se
možda i ne slažemo.
možda i ne slažemo.
13:26
The third thing that I think
is crucial, though,
is crucial, though,
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Treća stvar za koju mislim da je ključna,
13:29
and this is really fundamental,
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a ovo je zaista bitno,
13:31
is we have to ensure that everybody shares
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moramo se postarati da svako deli
13:33
in the benefits of globalization.
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blagodeti globalizacije.
13:36
This illustration from the Financial Times
post-Brexit is really striking.
post-Brexit is really striking.
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Ova ilustracija iz "Fajnenšal tajmsa"
nakon Bregzita je zaista upečatljiva.
nakon Bregzita je zaista upečatljiva.
13:41
It shows tragically that those people
who voted to leave the European Union
who voted to leave the European Union
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Tragično pokazuje da su oni ljudi
koji su glasali
za napuštanje Evropske unije
za napuštanje Evropske unije
13:45
were those who actually
benefited the most materially
benefited the most materially
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bili oni koji su zapravo
imali najviše materijalne koristi
imali najviše materijalne koristi
13:47
from trade with the European Union.
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2520
od trgovine sa Evropskom unijom.
13:51
But the problem is
that those people in those areas
that those people in those areas
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Problem je u tome
što ti ljudi u tim područjima
što ti ljudi u tim područjima
13:53
didn't perceive themselves
to be beneficiaries.
to be beneficiaries.
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nisu sebe videli
kao uživaoce u blagodetima.
kao uživaoce u blagodetima.
13:56
They didn't believe that they
were actually getting access
were actually getting access
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Nisu verovali da oni zapravo
dobijaju pristup materijalnim dobrima
dobijaju pristup materijalnim dobrima
13:59
to material benefits of increased trade
and increased mobility around the world.
and increased mobility around the world.
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iz povećane trgovine,
kao i povećanu mobilnost širom sveta.
kao i povećanu mobilnost širom sveta.
14:05
I work on questions
predominantly to do with refugees,
predominantly to do with refugees,
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Radim na pitanjima koja se
prevashodno tiču izbeglica,
prevashodno tiču izbeglica,
14:09
and one of the ideas
I spent a lot of my time preaching,
I spent a lot of my time preaching,
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i jedna od ideja koju sam
dosta dugo ponavljao,
dosta dugo ponavljao,
14:12
mainly to developing countries
around the world,
around the world,
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većinom u zemljama u razvoju širom sveta,
14:15
is that in order to encourage
the integration of refugees,
the integration of refugees,
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je da kako bi se podstakla
integracija izbeglica,
integracija izbeglica,
14:18
we can't just benefit
the refugee populations,
the refugee populations,
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ne možemo prosto da damo blagodeti
izbegličkom stanovništvu,
izbegličkom stanovništvu,
14:21
we also have to address the concerns
of the host communities in local areas.
of the host communities in local areas.
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moramo i da rešimo probleme
zajednica domaćina u lokalnim područjima.
zajednica domaćina u lokalnim područjima.
14:27
But in looking at that,
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Ali gledajući na to,
14:28
one of the policy prescriptions
is that we have to provide
is that we have to provide
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jedna od preporuka za politiku
je da moramo da pružimo
je da moramo da pružimo
14:31
disproportionately better
education facilities, health facilities,
education facilities, health facilities,
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neproporcionalno bolje ustanove
za obrazovanje, zdravstvo
za obrazovanje, zdravstvo
14:35
access to social services
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i pristup socijalnim uslugama
14:37
in those regions of high immigration
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u tim područjima sa visokom imigracijom
14:39
to address the concerns
of those local populations.
of those local populations.
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kako bi se rešili problemi
tog lokalnog stanovništva.
tog lokalnog stanovništva.
14:42
But while we encourage that
around the developing world,
around the developing world,
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Ali iako podstičemo to
širom sveta u razvoju,
širom sveta u razvoju,
14:45
we don't take those lessons home
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te lekcije ne primenjujemo kod kuće
14:46
and incorporate them in our own societies.
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i ne uključujemo ih
u sopstvenim društvima.
u sopstvenim društvima.
14:50
Furthermore, if we're going
to really take seriously
to really take seriously
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Štaviše, ako ćemo zaista
da uzmemo za ozbiljno
da uzmemo za ozbiljno
14:53
the need to ensure people share
in the economic benefits,
in the economic benefits,
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potrebu da se postaramo
da ljudi dele ekonomske blagodeti,
da ljudi dele ekonomske blagodeti,
14:56
our businesses and corporations
need a model of globalization
need a model of globalization
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našim kompanijama i korporacijama
potreban je model globalizacije
potreban je model globalizacije
15:00
that recognizes that they, too,
have to take people with them.
have to take people with them.
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koji prepoznaje i činjenicu
da i oni moraju da približe ljude sebi.
da i oni moraju da približe ljude sebi.
15:05
The fourth and final idea
I want to put forward
I want to put forward
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Četvrta i poslednja ideja
koju želim da predložim
koju želim da predložim
15:08
is an idea that we need
more responsible politics.
more responsible politics.
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je ideja da nam je svima potrebna
odgovornija politika.
odgovornija politika.
15:12
There's very little
social science evidence
social science evidence
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Postoji veoma malo socioloških dokaza
15:15
that compares attitudes on globalization.
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gde se porede stavovi o globalizaciji.
15:18
But from the surveys that do exist,
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Ali iz istraživanja koja postoje,
15:20
what we can see is there's huge variation
across different countries
across different countries
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možemo videti ogromne varijacije
širom različitih zemalja
širom različitih zemalja
15:25
and time periods in those countries
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i vremenskih perioda u tim zemljama
15:27
for attitudes and tolerance
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što se tiče stavova i tolerancije
15:29
of questions like migration
and mobility on the one hand
and mobility on the one hand
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kod pitanja poput migracije i mobilnosti
sa jedne strane
sa jedne strane
15:32
and free trade on the other.
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i slobodne trgovine sa druge strane.
15:34
But one hypothesis that I think emerges
from a cursory look at that data
from a cursory look at that data
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Ali mislim da se javlja jedna hipoteza
iz letimičnog pogleda na te podatke,
iz letimičnog pogleda na te podatke,
15:40
is the idea that polarized societies
are far less tolerant of globalization.
are far less tolerant of globalization.
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ideja da su polarizovana društva
mnogo manje tolerantna na globalizaciju.
mnogo manje tolerantna na globalizaciju.
15:46
It's the societies
like Sweden in the past,
like Sweden in the past,
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Društva poput Švedske u prošlosti,
15:49
like Canada today,
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današnje Kanade,
15:50
where there is a centrist politics,
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gde postoji politika centrizma,
15:52
where right and left work together,
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gde levica i desnica sarađuju,
15:54
that we encourage supportive attitudes
towards globalization.
towards globalization.
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tu se podržavaju pozitivni stavovi
ka globalizaciji.
ka globalizaciji.
15:58
And what we see around the world today
is a tragic polarization,
is a tragic polarization,
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Danas širom sveta
vidimo tragičnu polarizaciju,
vidimo tragičnu polarizaciju,
16:02
a failure to have dialogue
between the extremes in politics,
between the extremes in politics,
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nemogućnost vođenja dijaloga
između političkih ekstrema,
između političkih ekstrema,
16:05
and a gap in terms
of that liberal center ground
of that liberal center ground
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kao i jaz koji se tiče
tog centralnog liberalnog tla
tog centralnog liberalnog tla
16:08
that can encourage communication
and a shared understanding.
and a shared understanding.
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koji može da podstakne komunikaciju
i zajedničko razumevanje.
i zajedničko razumevanje.
16:12
We might not achieve that today,
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Možda to nećemo postići danas,
16:13
but at the very least we have to call
upon our politicians and our media
upon our politicians and our media
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ali u najmanju ruku moramo da pozovemo
svoje političare i medije
svoje političare i medije
16:17
to drop a language of fear
and be far more tolerant of one another.
and be far more tolerant of one another.
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da napuste jezik straha i budu
tolerantniji jedni prema drugima.
tolerantniji jedni prema drugima.
16:21
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
16:29
These ideas are very tentative,
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Ove ideje su veoma okvirne
i to je delom zbog toga
i to je delom zbog toga
16:32
and that's in part because this needs
to be an inclusive and shared project.
to be an inclusive and shared project.
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što ovo mora da bude
inkluzivan i zajednički projekat.
inkluzivan i zajednički projekat.
16:38
I am still British.
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Još uvek sam Britanac.
16:40
I am still European.
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Još uvek sam Evropljanin.
16:43
I am still a global citizen.
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Još uvek sam globalni građanin.
16:47
For those of us who believe
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Za one među nama koji veruju
16:49
that our identities
are not mutually exclusive,
are not mutually exclusive,
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da naši identiteti nisu
međusobno isključivi,
međusobno isključivi,
16:53
we have to all work together
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svi moramo da radimo zajedno
16:56
to ensure that globalization
takes everyone with us
takes everyone with us
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da se postaramo da globalizacija
povede svakog sa nama
povede svakog sa nama
17:00
and doesn't leave people behind.
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i ne ostavi nikog iza sebe.
17:02
Only then will we truly reconcile
democracy and globalization.
democracy and globalization.
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Samo onda ćemo zaista pomiriti
globalizaciju i demokratiju.
globalizaciju i demokratiju.
17:07
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
17:09
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Alexander Betts - Social scientistAlexander Betts explores ways societies might empower refugees rather than pushing them to the margins.
Why you should listen
In media and in public debate, refugees are routinely portrayed as a burden. Professor Alexander Betts argues that refugees, who represent a wide spectrum of professional backgrounds, are in fact an untapped resource that could benefit nations willing to welcome them into their economies.
Betts is the director of the Refugee Studies Centre at the University of Oxford, where he spearheads research on refugee and other forced migrant populations. His book, Survival Migration, explores the predicaments of people who are fleeing disaster yet fall outside legal definitions of refugee status.
Alexander Betts | Speaker | TED.com