TEDSummit
Alexander Betts: Why Brexit happened -- and what to do next
亚历山大 贝茨: 英国脱欧为什么会发生－我们又该如何应对
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亚历山大·贝茨说：“我们都未曾意识到我们社会中的分歧有多大，英国脱欧显示了英国社会深层次的对于全球化的恐惧和渴望之间的对立。我们现在要如何解决对全球化的恐惧，以及伴随政治建设产生的与日俱增的不安情绪， 同时又不使自身陷入排外主义和民族主义的阴霾中呢？一起聆听贝茨带来跨向更包容世界的四部曲。
Alexander Betts - Social scientist
Alexander Betts explores ways societies might empower refugees rather than pushing them to the margins. Full bio
Alexander Betts explores ways societies might empower refugees rather than pushing them to the margins. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
I am British.
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我是一名英国人。
（笑声）
00:15
(Laughter)
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（掌声）
00:17
(Applause)
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这句话从来没有
引起过这样的怜悯。
引起过这样的怜悯。
00:20
Never before has the phrase
"I am British" elicited so much pity.
"I am British" elicited so much pity.
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00:24
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
就像我们中大多数想的那样，
我来自于一座岛，
我来自于一座岛，
00:26
I come from an island
where many of us like to believe
where many of us like to believe
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在过去的一千多年里
文化在那里延续传承。
文化在那里延续传承。
00:29
there's been a lot of continuity
over the last thousand years.
over the last thousand years.
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00:33
We tend to have historically
imposed change on others
imposed change on others
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我们总是会给别人带来种种变革，
但却没给自己带来多少。
00:36
but done much less of it ourselves.
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00:39
So it came as an immense shock to me
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所以当我在6月24号的早晨醒来，
我感到很震惊,
00:41
when I woke up on the morning of June 24
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我的国家进行了公投，决定脱离欧盟，
00:44
to discover that my country
had voted to leave the European Union,
had voted to leave the European Union,
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首相辞职了，
00:48
my Prime Minister had resigned,
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苏格兰也考虑重启公投，
00:50
and Scotland was considering a referendum
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这有可能会分裂我的国家。
00:53
that could bring to an end
the very existence of the United Kingdom.
the very existence of the United Kingdom.
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00:58
So that was an immense shock for me,
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对我，甚至对其他很多人来说，
这简直就是晴天霹雳，
01:01
and it was an immense
shock for many people,
shock for many people,
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01:05
but it was also something
that, over the following several days,
that, over the following several days,
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这件事也在过去的这些日子里
给我的国家制造了一个重大的
01:08
created a complete political meltdown
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政治危机。
01:11
in my country.
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有人呼吁进行第二轮公投，
01:12
There were calls for a second referendum,
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就像是进行一场体育竞赛一样，
01:15
almost as if, following a sports match,
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我们可以提出申诉并要求重来。
01:17
we could ask the opposition for a replay.
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01:20
Everybody was blaming everybody else.
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所有人都在互相责怪。
人们指责首相，
01:23
People blamed the Prime Minister
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指责他允许了这次公投。
01:24
for calling the referendum
in the first place.
in the first place.
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指责反对人士抗议得不够彻底。
01:27
They blamed the leader of the opposition
for not fighting it hard enough.
for not fighting it hard enough.
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年轻人指责老年人。
01:30
The young accused the old.
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知识分子指责教育程度低的人。
01:31
The educated blamed
the less well-educated.
the less well-educated.
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01:35
That complete meltdown was made even worse
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这场危机更因为一种现象而
01:38
by the most tragic element of it:
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变得更加糟糕：
我从没有在英国街头看到过
01:40
levels of xenophobia and racist abuse
in the streets of Britain
in the streets of Britain
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如此严重的排外现象，
01:44
at a level that I have never seen before
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以及种族歧视。
01:46
in my lifetime.
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01:49
People are now talking about whether
my country is becoming a Little England,
my country is becoming a Little England,
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人们在讨论我的国家可能会变成小英格兰，
或者是，按我同事的话说，
01:54
or, as one of my colleagues put it,
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我们就要变成一个在大西洋上飘着的
01:56
whether we're about to become
a 1950s nostalgia theme park
a 1950s nostalgia theme park
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五十年代怀旧主义公园。
02:00
floating in the Atlantic Ocean.
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（笑声）
02:02
(Laughter)
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02:05
But my question is really,
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但是我的问题是，
我们应该为这种事情的发生
而感到如此的震惊吗？
而感到如此的震惊吗？
02:08
should we have the degree of shock
that we've experienced since?
that we've experienced since?
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02:13
Was it something
that took place overnight?
that took place overnight?
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它是一夜间突然就发生的事情吗？
或者，有没有一些更深层次的原因
让我们走到了今天？
让我们走到了今天？
02:15
Or are there deeper structural factors
that have led us to where we are today?
that have led us to where we are today?
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所以我打算回头想一想，
提两个最基本的问题。
提两个最基本的问题。
02:20
So I want to take a step back
and ask two very basic questions.
and ask two very basic questions.
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第一个，英国脱欧对于全球所有的人，
02:24
First, what does Brexit represent,
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不仅仅是我的同胞，
02:27
not just for my country,
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到底意味着什么？
02:29
but for all of us around the world?
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第二，我们能做什么？
02:32
And second, what can we do about it?
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我们要怎样应对？
02:35
How should we all respond?
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所以第一，英国脱欧意味着什么？
02:37
So first, what does Brexit represent?
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02:40
Hindsight is a wonderful thing.
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前车之鉴总是好的。
02:43
Brexit teaches us many things
about our society
about our society
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英国脱欧给我们的国家以及其他的国家，
上了内容丰富的一课。
02:47
and about societies around the world.
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02:51
It highlights in ways
that we seem embarrassingly unaware of
that we seem embarrassingly unaware of
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它突显了我们的社会现在
存在着从未被察觉的
存在着从未被察觉的
巨大的分歧。
02:54
how divided our societies are.
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02:56
The vote split along lines of age,
education, class and geography.
education, class and geography.
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投票者按年龄、教育程度、收入
和地域区进行了划分。
和地域区进行了划分。
除了那些想留在欧盟的，
03:03
Young people didn't turn out
to vote in great numbers,
to vote in great numbers,
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年轻人中投票的并不是很多。
03:06
but those that did wanted to remain.
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年龄大些的人们则很想离开欧盟。
03:08
Older people really wanted
to leave the European Union.
to leave the European Union.
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从地理位置来讲，伦敦和苏格兰强烈地
03:12
Geographically, it was London and Scotland
that most strongly committed
that most strongly committed
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想要留在欧盟，
03:15
to being part of the European Union,
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而与此同时，
其他地区的人们却更加矛盾和纠结。
其他地区的人们却更加矛盾和纠结。
03:17
while in other parts of the country
there was very strong ambivalence.
there was very strong ambivalence.
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03:23
Those divisions are things we really
need to recognize and take seriously.
need to recognize and take seriously.
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这些分歧应当好好被了解以及重视。
但是往深里说，
这次公投告诉了我们
这次公投告诉了我们
03:27
But more profoundly,
the vote teaches us something
the vote teaches us something
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当今政治的本质。
03:30
about the nature of politics today.
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当代政治不再仅仅是左翼与右翼。
03:32
Contemporary politics
is no longer just about right and left.
is no longer just about right and left.
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不再仅仅是收税以及开支。
03:36
It's no longer just about tax and spend.
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当代政治是全球性的。
03:39
It's about globalization.
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当代政治的分界线是
接受全球化，
接受全球化，
03:41
The fault line of contemporary politics is
between those that embrace globalization
between those that embrace globalization
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还是拒绝全球化。
03:46
and those that fear globalization.
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03:50
(Applause)
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（掌声）
03:55
If we look at why
those who wanted to leave --
those who wanted to leave --
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如果我们看看脱欧者——
对应于留欧者——想要脱欧的理由，
03:58
we call them "Leavers,"
as opposed to "Remainers" --
as opposed to "Remainers" --
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我们可以在他们的理由里看到两点，
04:00
we see two factors in the opinion polls
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两个重要的点。
04:03
that really mattered.
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第一个是移民，第二个是主权，
04:04
The first was immigration,
and the second sovereignty,
and the second sovereignty,
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这些代表了人们想要掌管自己人生的欲望，
04:07
and these represent a desire for people
to take back control of their own lives
to take back control of their own lives
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还有那些没被政治家所表达的感受。
04:13
and the feeling that they
are unrepresented by politicians.
are unrepresented by politicians.
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04:18
But those ideas are ones
that signify fear and alienation.
that signify fear and alienation.
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但是那些想法意味着恐惧与抵触，
它们代表着向民族主义
以及两极分化趋势的倒退，
以及两极分化趋势的倒退，
04:23
They represent a retreat
back towards nationalism and borders
back towards nationalism and borders
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而这却是我们很多人不愿看到的。
04:29
in ways that many of us would reject.
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04:31
What I want to suggest is the picture
is more complicated than that,
is more complicated than that,
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我想要描述的是一个比那个更复杂的局面，
即自由国际主义者，
04:34
that liberal internationalists,
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我就是其中之一，
我把自己也归到这一类人当中，
我把自己也归到这一类人当中，
04:36
like myself, and I firmly
include myself in that picture,
include myself in that picture,
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需要退回到当初那个大环境中，
04:39
need to write ourselves
back into the picture
back into the picture
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才能理解我们是如何走到今天这个地步的。
04:42
in order to understand
how we've got to where we are today.
how we've got to where we are today.
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04:47
When we look at the voting patterns
across the United Kingdom,
across the United Kingdom,
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当我们看到英国公投结果的地域分布图时，
可以明显看到分界线。
04:50
we can visibly see the divisions.
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04:53
The blue areas show Remain
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蓝色地区的想要留下，
红色地区的想要离开。
04:55
and the red areas Leave.
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当我看到这个的时候，
04:57
When I looked at this,
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让我感到吃惊的，
是我生命里只有短暂的时光
是我生命里只有短暂的时光
04:59
what personally struck me
was the very little time in my life
was the very little time in my life
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花在了红色地区里。
05:02
I've actually spent
in many of the red areas.
in many of the red areas.
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我最终意识到，我的生命中只有4天
05:06
I suddenly realized that,
looking at the top 50 areas in the UK
looking at the top 50 areas in the UK
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花在了脱欧意愿
05:11
that have the strongest Leave vote,
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最强烈的50个区。
05:13
I've spent a combined total
of four days of my life in those areas.
of four days of my life in those areas.
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05:19
In some of those places,
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在有些地方，
我甚至不知道那些选区的名字。
05:21
I didn't even know the names
of the voting districts.
of the voting districts.
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这真的让我深受打击，
05:24
It was a real shock to me,
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它提醒了像我这样的人，
05:26
and it suggested that people like me
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我们自认为是
包容、开放、慷慨的一群人，
包容、开放、慷慨的一群人，
05:28
who think of ourselves
as inclusive, open and tolerant,
as inclusive, open and tolerant,
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却可能并不像我们以为的那样
05:32
perhaps don't know
our own countries and societies
our own countries and societies
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了解我们的国家和社会。
05:35
nearly as well as we like to believe.
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（掌声）
05:38
(Applause)
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05:48
And the challenge that comes from that
is we need to find a new way
is we need to find a new way
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脱欧带来的挑战是，我们需要
寻找到一条新出路，
寻找到一条新出路，
让这些人接受全球化的现状，
05:52
to narrate globalization to those people,
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要认识到那些没有上过大学的人，
05:55
to recognize that for those people who
have not necessarily been to university,
have not necessarily been to university,
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没有接触过网络的人，
05:59
who haven't necessarily
grown up with the Internet,
grown up with the Internet,
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没有机会旅游的人，
06:01
that don't get opportunities to travel,
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他们可能不会为我们鼓吹的自由主义
06:04
they may be unpersuaded
by the narrative that we find persuasive
by the narrative that we find persuasive
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“糖衣炮弹”所动摇。
06:07
in our often liberal bubbles.
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06:10
(Applause)
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(掌声）
06:15
It means that we need to reach out
more broadly and understand.
more broadly and understand.
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这意味着，我们需要理解和接受
更广泛的事物。
更广泛的事物。
在决定离开的投票中，
一小部份人煽动着人们的负面情绪，
一小部份人煽动着人们的负面情绪，
06:19
In the Leave vote, a minority have peddled
the politics of fear and hatred,
the politics of fear and hatred,
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制造着谎言与猜疑，
06:25
creating lies and mistrust
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比如，他们会传播
06:28
around, for instance,
the idea that the vote on Europe
the idea that the vote on Europe
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离开欧盟可以减少难民以及
来英国寻求庇护的人这种观点，
来英国寻求庇护的人这种观点，
06:31
could reduce the number of refugees
and asylum-seekers coming to Europe,
and asylum-seekers coming to Europe,
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但事实上离开欧盟根本不会减少
06:35
when the vote on leaving
had nothing to do with immigration
had nothing to do with immigration
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来自欧盟以及其他国家的移民。
06:38
from outside the European Union.
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06:41
But for a significant majority
of the Leave voters
of the Leave voters
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但是大部分脱欧人士
都怀有由现有政治体系而引发的担忧。
06:44
the concern was disillusionment
with the political establishment.
with the political establishment.
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这是许多人对于不被尊重，
06:48
This was a protest vote for many,
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不被关注，
06:50
a sense that nobody represented them,
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没有党派为其发声的一种反抗，
06:53
that they couldn't find
a political party that spoke for them,
a political party that spoke for them,
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所以他们想要拒绝现有的政治系统。
06:56
and so they rejected
that political establishment.
that political establishment.
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07:01
This replicates around Europe
and much of the liberal democratic world.
and much of the liberal democratic world.
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这样的现象在欧洲以及世界上
其它很多自由的民主社会里比比皆是。
其它很多自由的民主社会里比比皆是。
我们看到在美国，川普赢得了很多支持。
07:06
We see it with the rise in popularity
of Donald Trump in the United States,
of Donald Trump in the United States,
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在匈牙利，欧尔班·维克托
带领着民族主义进步，
带领着民族主义进步，
07:11
with the growing nationalism
of Viktor Orbán in Hungary,
of Viktor Orbán in Hungary,
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在法国，玛丽·勒庞支持率大涨。
07:15
with the increase in popularity
of Marine Le Pen in France.
of Marine Le Pen in France.
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英国脱欧的势力渗透在
每一个这样的社会中。
每一个这样的社会中。
07:20
The specter of Brexit
is in all of our societies.
is in all of our societies.
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07:25
So the question I think we need to ask
is my second question,
is my second question,
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所以，我认为我们需要问的问题，
也就是我第二个问题，
也就是我第二个问题，
我们应该如何合理应对？
07:28
which is how should we
collectively respond?
collectively respond?
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07:31
For all of us who care about creating
liberal, open, tolerant societies,
liberal, open, tolerant societies,
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对于所有关心自由、开放、包容的人，
我们迫切地需要一种新的憧憬，
07:37
we urgently need a new vision,
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更加包容，更加全球化，
07:39
a vision of a more tolerant,
inclusive globalization,
inclusive globalization,
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更能将人们团结在一起。
07:43
one that brings people with us
rather than leaving them behind.
rather than leaving them behind.
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07:48
That vision of globalization
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要实现那种全球化的憧憬，
需要首先认识到全球化的正面影响。
07:50
is one that has to start by a recognition
of the positive benefits of globalization.
of the positive benefits of globalization.
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经济学家的共识是
07:55
The consensus amongst economists
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自由贸易、资本的移动，
07:58
is that free trade,
the movement of capital,
the movement of capital,
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人员自由的流动，
08:00
the movement of people across borders
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能给所有人带来利益。
08:02
benefit everyone on aggregate.
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国际关系学家一致认同
08:05
The consensus amongst
international relations scholars
international relations scholars
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国际化伴随着相互依存，
08:08
is that globalization
brings interdependence,
brings interdependence,
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并带来合作与和平。
08:10
which brings cooperation and peace.
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但是全球化也会有副作用。
08:13
But globalization
also has redistributive effects.
also has redistributive effects.
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会有赢家也会有失败者。
08:18
It creates winners and losers.
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就比方说移民，
08:21
To take the example of migration,
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我们知道移民可以给
宏观经济带来益处，
宏观经济带来益处，
08:23
we know that immigration is a net positive
for the economy as a whole
for the economy as a whole
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在所有的环境下几乎无一例外。
08:26
under almost all circumstances.
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08:30
But we also have to be very aware
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但我们也需要对此保持谨慎态度，
因为这也会带来负面影响，
08:33
that there are
redistributive consequences,
redistributive consequences,
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不容忽视的就是，未受到良好教育的移民
08:36
that importantly, low-skilled immigration
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会拉低社会中低收入人群的工资水平，
08:39
can lead to a reduction in wages
for the most impoverished in our societies
for the most impoverished in our societies
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并且会促进房价的上涨。
08:44
and also put pressure on house prices.
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这些还不能与它所能带来的好处相提并论，
08:46
That doesn't detract
from the fact that it's positive,
from the fact that it's positive,
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但这也意味着，
更多的人无可避免会享受到它所带来的好处，
更多的人无可避免会享受到它所带来的好处，
08:48
but it means more people
have to share in those benefits
have to share in those benefits
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并且不得不承认这一点。
08:51
and recognize them.
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08:55
In 2002, the former Secretary-General
of the United Nations, Kofi Annan,
of the United Nations, Kofi Annan,
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在2002年，前联合国秘书长科菲安南
在耶鲁大学做了一个演讲，
09:00
gave a speech at Yale University,
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那个演讲的题目是全球化的包容性。
09:03
and that speech was on the topic
of inclusive globalization.
of inclusive globalization.
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他正是在这篇演讲里奠定了那番陈述。
09:07
That was the speech
in which he coined that term.
in which he coined that term.
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他讲到，我在这里复述一下，
09:10
And he said, and I paraphrase,
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“全球化的大门将必须向所有人敞开，
09:12
"The glass house of globalization
has to be open to all
has to be open to all
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这样才能带来安定。
09:18
if it is to remain secure.
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09:21
Bigotry and ignorance
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偏执与无知
是反全球化和排外者的丑陋外表。”
09:24
are the ugly face of exclusionary
and antagonistic globalization."
and antagonistic globalization."
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这种全球化的想法在2008年时又短暂出现
在公众视线里，
在公众视线里，
09:31
That idea of inclusive globalization
was briefly revived in 2008
was briefly revived in 2008
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那是一个讨论渐进式管理的会议，
09:36
in a conference on progressive governance
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很多欧盟领导人都出席了。
09:38
involving many of the leaders
of European countries.
of European countries.
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09:43
But amid austerity
and the financial crisis of 2008,
and the financial crisis of 2008,
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但这次会议只是针对2008年的经济危机，
在那之后这个想法便几乎消失得无影无踪。
09:47
the concept disappeared
almost without a trace.
almost without a trace.
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全球化被用来支持新自由主义议程。
09:50
Globalization has been taken
to support a neoliberal agenda.
to support a neoliberal agenda.
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它被认为是精英议程的一部分，
09:54
It's perceived to be
part of an elite agenda
part of an elite agenda
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并不会为所有人带来利益。
09:57
rather than something that benefits all.
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它更需要建立在一个比今天
10:00
And it needs to be reclaimed
on a far more inclusive basis
on a far more inclusive basis
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更加包容的世界。
10:03
than it is today.
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10:05
So the question is,
how can we achieve that goal?
how can we achieve that goal?
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所以问题是，
我们怎样才能达到那个目标？
我们怎样才能达到那个目标？
我们如何才能恰到好处地处理恐惧和抵触心理，
10:09
How can we balance on the one hand
addressing fear and alienation
addressing fear and alienation
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又不过分地
10:14
while on the other hand
refusing vehemently
refusing vehemently
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反对排外主义与民族主义？
10:17
to give in to xenophobia and nationalism?
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这是我们所有人需要面对的问题。
10:21
That is the question for all of us.
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另外，我认为，
身为一名社会科学家，
身为一名社会科学家，
10:23
And I think, as a social scientist,
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我可以提供一些着手思考的点。
10:25
that social science
offers some places to start.
offers some places to start.
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10:29
Our transformation has to be about
both ideas and about material change,
both ideas and about material change,
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我们的转型一定是物质
与思想上的同时转型，
与思想上的同时转型，
我想给出四个转型的想法来抛砖引玉。
10:34
and I want to give you four ideas
as a starting point.
as a starting point.
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第一个与国民教育有关。
10:37
The first relates to the idea
of civic education.
of civic education.
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英国脱欧突显的是
10:42
What stands out from Brexit
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公众看法与依靠经验判断现实的分歧。
10:44
is the gap between public perception
and empirical reality.
and empirical reality.
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有证据显示，
我们已经进入后真实社会。
我们已经进入后真实社会。
10:48
It's been suggested that we've moved
to a postfactual society,
to a postfactual society,
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证据与真理已经不再重要，
10:52
where evidence and truth no longer matter,
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谎言与事实具有同等地位。
10:54
and lies have equal status
to the clarity of evidence.
to the clarity of evidence.
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所以，我们怎样—
10:58
So how can we --
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（掌声）
11:00
(Applause)
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11:02
How can we rebuild respect for truth
and evidence into our liberal democracies?
and evidence into our liberal democracies?
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我们怎样才能在我们的自由民主社会中，
重新建立起对于真理和证据的尊重？
重新建立起对于真理和证据的尊重？
要做到这些，必先着手于教育，
11:08
It has to begin with education,
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但是，这首先需要人们意识到
巨大分歧的存在。
巨大分歧的存在。
11:10
but it has to start with the recognition
that there are huge gaps.
that there are huge gaps.
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11:14
In 2014, the pollster Ipsos MORI
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在2014年，民意调查专家Ipsos MORI
公开了一个关于移民问题的民意调查，
11:18
published a survey
on attitudes to immigration,
on attitudes to immigration,
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它指出当移民的数量上升的时候，
11:21
and it showed that as numbers
of immigrants increase,
of immigrants increase,
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社会对于移民的担忧也会上升，
11:26
so public concern
with immigration also increases,
with immigration also increases,
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然而这并不能直接表明任何因果关系，
11:29
although it obviously
didn't unpack causality,
didn't unpack causality,
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因为这跟数字没有很大的关系，
11:31
because this could equally be to do
not so much with numbers
not so much with numbers
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倒是政治和媒体宣传的作用更明显。
11:34
but the political
and media narrative around it.
and media narrative around it.
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11:37
But the same survey also revealed
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这份调查还指出了
民众获取了许多的错误信息，
11:41
huge public misinformation
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对于移民也有本质上的误解。
11:43
and misunderstanding
about the nature of immigration.
about the nature of immigration.
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举个例子，在英国，
11:47
For example, in these attitudes
in the United Kingdom,
in the United Kingdom,
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有这种公众认为开设避难所的数量
11:50
the public believed that levels of asylum
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比真正移民数量的比例要高，
11:53
were a greater proportion
of immigration than they were,
of immigration than they were,
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公众还低估了受过教育的移民
11:56
but they also believed
the levels of educational migration
the levels of educational migration
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在所有移民中
12:00
were far lower as a proportion
of overall migration
of overall migration
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所占的比例。
12:03
than they actually are.
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所以我们要纠正这些误解，
12:05
So we have to address this misinformation,
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这种认识与现实之间的差距，
正是全球化的关键所在。
正是全球化的关键所在。
12:07
the gap between perception and reality
on key aspects of globalization.
on key aspects of globalization.
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但这些任务不能只交给学校，
12:12
And that can't just be something
that's left to our schools,
that's left to our schools,
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虽然教育年轻一代很重要。
12:15
although that's important
to begin at an early age.
to begin at an early age.
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这需要成为一个终身计划，
12:17
It has to be about lifelong
civic participation
civic participation
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从整个社会的角度，应该鼓励民众终身参与其中，
要调动公众的积极性。
要调动公众的积极性。
12:20
and public engagement
that we all encourage as societies.
that we all encourage as societies.
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12:26
The second thing
that I think is an opportunity
that I think is an opportunity
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第二个是机遇，
让不同的社会团体进行更多的交流。
12:28
is the idea to encourage more interaction
across diverse communities.
across diverse communities.
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（掌声）
12:33
(Applause)
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12:37
One of the things that stands out
for me very strikingly,
for me very strikingly,
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有一件事让我感到很震惊，
纵观英国人对于移民的态度，
12:40
looking at immigration attitudes
in the United Kingdom,
in the United Kingdom,
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讽刺的是，那些
12:43
is that ironically,
the regions of my country
the regions of my country
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最包容移民的区域
12:46
that are the most tolerant of immigrants
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1905
有着最高的移民人口。
12:48
have the highest numbers of immigrants.
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比如，
伦敦和东南地区有着最多的移民，
伦敦和东南地区有着最多的移民，
12:51
So for instance, London and the Southeast
have the highest numbers of immigrants,
have the highest numbers of immigrants,
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它们也是目前最包容开放的地区。
12:55
and they are also by far
the most tolerant areas.
the most tolerant areas.
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3136
那些有着最低移民比例的地区
12:58
It's those areas of the country
that have the lowest levels of immigration
that have the lowest levels of immigration
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是最排外，对移民最不包容的。
13:02
that actually are the most exclusionary
and intolerant towards migrants.
and intolerant towards migrants.
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13:07
So we need to encourage exchange programs.
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所以我们需要鼓励交换计划。
我们需要确保那些
不能外出的老年人
不能外出的老年人
13:09
We need to ensure that older generations
who maybe can't travel
who maybe can't travel
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可以上网。
13:13
get access to the Internet.
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我们需要鼓励，甚至从地方和国家层面来支持
13:15
We need to encourage,
even on a local and national level,
even on a local and national level,
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更多的活动，更多的参与机会，
13:18
more movement, more participation,
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与更多我们不熟悉的人进行交流，
13:20
more interaction
with people who we don't know
with people who we don't know
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包括那些与我们意见相左的人们。
13:22
and whose views we might
not necessarily agree with.
not necessarily agree with.
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13:26
The third thing that I think
is crucial, though,
is crucial, though,
238
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我想到的第三点是决定性的，
并且是最基础的，
13:29
and this is really fundamental,
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我们需要确认所有人都能
13:31
is we have to ensure that everybody shares
240
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享受到全球化的益处。
13:33
in the benefits of globalization.
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13:36
This illustration from the Financial Times
post-Brexit is really striking.
post-Brexit is really striking.
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4736
英国脱欧带来的经济问题是严峻的。
那些选择脱欧的人
13:41
It shows tragically that those people
who voted to leave the European Union
who voted to leave the European Union
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却是那些通过欧洲贸易
13:45
were those who actually
benefited the most materially
benefited the most materially
244
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得到大量实质性收益的人。
13:47
from trade with the European Union.
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13:51
But the problem is
that those people in those areas
that those people in those areas
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但是，问题在于那些得益的人
并没有意识到他们在其中收到了益处。
13:53
didn't perceive themselves
to be beneficiaries.
to be beneficiaries.
247
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他们不相信自己真的
因此而得到了实质性的收获，
因此而得到了实质性的收获，
13:56
They didn't believe that they
were actually getting access
were actually getting access
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13:59
to material benefits of increased trade
and increased mobility around the world.
and increased mobility around the world.
249
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也能因此而更方便地
进行国际贸易和周游世界。
进行国际贸易和周游世界。
14:05
I work on questions
predominantly to do with refugees,
predominantly to do with refugees,
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我主要致力于解决难民的问题,
我花了很多时间在一个观点上，
14:09
and one of the ideas
I spent a lot of my time preaching,
I spent a lot of my time preaching,
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来劝导发展中国家，
14:12
mainly to developing countries
around the world,
around the world,
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鼓励它们团结难民，
14:15
is that in order to encourage
the integration of refugees,
the integration of refugees,
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我们不能仅仅为难民群体带来益处，
14:18
we can't just benefit
the refugee populations,
the refugee populations,
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我们还需要解决地方社区的担忧。
14:21
we also have to address the concerns
of the host communities in local areas.
of the host communities in local areas.
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14:27
But in looking at that,
256
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但是深入了解它，
解决这个问题的方法是
14:28
one of the policy prescriptions
is that we have to provide
is that we have to provide
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我们需要按人口比例
为那些有着大量移民的地区
为那些有着大量移民的地区
14:31
disproportionately better
education facilities, health facilities,
education facilities, health facilities,
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提供更好的教育、医疗、
14:35
access to social services
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社会福利，
14:37
in those regions of high immigration
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以消除当地人口的顾虑。
14:39
to address the concerns
of those local populations.
of those local populations.
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但当我们在发展中国家
使用此方针的同时，
使用此方针的同时，
14:42
But while we encourage that
around the developing world,
around the developing world,
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我们并没有在自己的国家中应用，
14:45
we don't take those lessons home
263
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从而发展我们的社会。
14:46
and incorporate them in our own societies.
264
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14:50
Furthermore, if we're going
to really take seriously
to really take seriously
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如果我们真的将它重视起来，
让每个人都可以享受到经济利益，
14:53
the need to ensure people share
in the economic benefits,
in the economic benefits,
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我们的商业公司更需要
一个全球化的样本，
一个全球化的样本，
14:56
our businesses and corporations
need a model of globalization
need a model of globalization
267
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使他们意识到需要
带领别人一起发展。
带领别人一起发展。
15:00
that recognizes that they, too,
have to take people with them.
have to take people with them.
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15:05
The fourth and final idea
I want to put forward
I want to put forward
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第四个，也是我最后一个想法是，
我们需要更负责任的政治制度。
15:08
is an idea that we need
more responsible politics.
more responsible politics.
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15:12
There's very little
social science evidence
social science evidence
271
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只有很少的社会科学的调查
提供了对于全球化不同看法的比较。
15:15
that compares attitudes on globalization.
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但是根据调查，
15:18
But from the surveys that do exist,
273
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2536
我们可以看到不同的国家在不同的时间段内，
15:20
what we can see is there's huge variation
across different countries
across different countries
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对于一边是移民、
15:25
and time periods in those countries
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人口流动，
15:27
for attitudes and tolerance
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另一边是自由贸易的状况，
15:29
of questions like migration
and mobility on the one hand
and mobility on the one hand
277
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存在着巨大的分歧。
15:32
and free trade on the other.
278
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但是通过对那些数据进行研究，
我得到一种假设，
我得到一种假设，
15:34
But one hypothesis that I think emerges
from a cursory look at that data
from a cursory look at that data
279
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两极分化的社会对于全球化
抱有极不包容的态度。
抱有极不包容的态度。
15:40
is the idea that polarized societies
are far less tolerant of globalization.
are far less tolerant of globalization.
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6096
比如过去的瑞典，
15:46
It's the societies
like Sweden in the past,
like Sweden in the past,
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2816
今天的加拿大一样，
15:49
like Canada today,
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有着一个集中化的政体，
15:50
where there is a centrist politics,
283
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左翼与右翼政党携手合作，
15:52
where right and left work together,
284
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我们鼓励那些支持全球化的态度。
15:54
that we encourage supportive attitudes
towards globalization.
towards globalization.
285
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4016
我们今天的世界处在恶劣的两极分化中，
15:58
And what we see around the world today
is a tragic polarization,
is a tragic polarization,
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3816
政界两派有着恶劣的沟通环境，
16:02
a failure to have dialogue
between the extremes in politics,
between the extremes in politics,
287
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3016
并且有着巨大鸿沟以及分歧，
16:05
and a gap in terms
of that liberal center ground
of that liberal center ground
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这需要彼此的沟通以及理解。
16:08
that can encourage communication
and a shared understanding.
and a shared understanding.
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我们也许不会立刻达成共识，
16:12
We might not achieve that today,
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但是我们至少要让政客以及媒体
采取一些行动，
采取一些行动，
16:13
but at the very least we have to call
upon our politicians and our media
upon our politicians and our media
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让他们采取行动，彼此更加包容。
16:17
to drop a language of fear
and be far more tolerant of one another.
and be far more tolerant of one another.
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（掌声）
16:21
(Applause)
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16:29
These ideas are very tentative,
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这些想法的可行性很高，
应该在具有包容性和共享的项目中被采纳。
16:32
and that's in part because this needs
to be an inclusive and shared project.
to be an inclusive and shared project.
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16:38
I am still British.
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我依然是一个英国人。
16:40
I am still European.
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我依然是一个欧洲人。
16:43
I am still a global citizen.
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我依然是一个全球公民。
16:47
For those of us who believe
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对于我们这些认为
我们的身份并非相互排斥的人，
16:49
that our identities
are not mutually exclusive,
are not mutually exclusive,
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我们需要一起协作，
16:53
we have to all work together
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确保全球化可以让所有人都收益，
16:56
to ensure that globalization
takes everyone with us
takes everyone with us
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没有人掉队，或被忽视。
17:00
and doesn't leave people behind.
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只有这样，
才可以带来真正的民主以及全球化。
才可以带来真正的民主以及全球化。
17:02
Only then will we truly reconcile
democracy and globalization.
democracy and globalization.
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谢谢。
17:07
Thank you.
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（掌声）
17:09
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Alexander Betts - Social scientistAlexander Betts explores ways societies might empower refugees rather than pushing them to the margins.
Why you should listen
In media and in public debate, refugees are routinely portrayed as a burden. Professor Alexander Betts argues that refugees, who represent a wide spectrum of professional backgrounds, are in fact an untapped resource that could benefit nations willing to welcome them into their economies.
Betts is the director of the Refugee Studies Centre at the University of Oxford, where he spearheads research on refugee and other forced migrant populations. His book, Survival Migration, explores the predicaments of people who are fleeing disaster yet fall outside legal definitions of refugee status.
Alexander Betts | Speaker | TED.com