TED2007
Steven Pinker: The surprising decline in violence
史蒂芬品克：對暴力的誤解
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史蒂芬品克通過圖表展示從古至今暴力行為使用频率的下降，並且聲稱儘管今天的世界看上去很不太平，伊拉克、富爾達爾等地區更是戰亂不斷，但實際上，現在人類正處於歷史上最和平的時期。
Steven Pinker - Psychologist
Steven Pinker is a professor of cognitive science (the study of the human mind) who writes about language, mind and human nature. Full bio
Steven Pinker is a professor of cognitive science (the study of the human mind) who writes about language, mind and human nature. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:25
Images like this, from the Auschwitz concentration camp,
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像類似這樣的圖片，拍攝於奧斯威辛的集中營，
00:29
have been seared into our consciousness during the twentieth century
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在20世紀已深深地絡印在我們的意識中，
00:34
and have given us a new understanding of who we are,
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並且讓我們對自己有新的認識，
00:39
where we've come from and the times we live in.
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重新審視我們所處的環境和時代
00:42
During the twentieth century, we witnessed the atrocities
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在20世紀裡，我們目睹了
00:46
of Stalin, Hitler, Mao, Pol Pot, Rwanda and other genocides,
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斯大林，希特勒，毛澤東，波爾布特，盧旺達的暴行和其他種族大屠殺，
00:51
and even though the twenty-first century is only seven years old,
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儘管進入21世紀只有7年的時間，
00:55
we have already witnessed an ongoing genocide in Darfur
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我們已經目睹了正在達爾富爾進行的種族大屠殺
00:59
and the daily horrors of Iraq.
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和伊拉克頻繁的恐怖襲擊。
01:02
This has led to a common understanding of our situation,
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這導致了我們對所處的環境有這樣的認知，
01:05
namely that modernity has brought us terrible violence, and perhaps
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那就是：＂暴力行為是現代化導致的，
01:09
that native peoples lived in a state of harmony that we have departed from, to our peril.
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或許原始人還可以和睦共處，而我們已經做到這點了
01:12
Here is an example
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舉個例子來說
01:17
from an op-ed on Thanksgiving, in the Boston Globe
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波士頓環球報中的一篇專欄文章
01:20
a couple of years ago, where the writer wrote, "The Indian life
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幾年前，作家寫道：“印第安人的生活
01:24
was a difficult one, but there were no employment problems,
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非常堅苦，但他們沒有就業的問題，
01:27
community harmony was strong, substance abuse unknown,
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他們的社會和諧有力，沒有人濫用毒品，
01:30
crime nearly non-existent, what warfare there was between tribes
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幾乎沒有法罪率，即使兩個部落之間有發生戰爭
01:34
was largely ritualistic and seldom resulted in indiscriminate
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大部分都是固守儀式的，很少導致部族歧視
01:37
or wholesale slaughter." Now, you're all familiar with this treacle.
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和大屠殺的發生。＂現在，大家對這佳話也已經耳熟能詳了。
01:42
We teach it to our children. We hear it on television
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我們從電視和故事書得知這些東西，並且我們也是這樣教育兒女。
01:45
and in storybooks. Now, the original title of this session
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好，今天這個講座的主題是
01:50
was, "Everything You Know Is Wrong," and I'm going to present evidence
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＂你所知道的都是錯誤的＂，然後現在我就要出示證據
01:53
that this particular part of our common understanding is wrong,
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推翻大家原先對暴力的一些錯誤認知
01:56
that, in fact, our ancestors were far more violent than we are,
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實際上，我們的祖先是比我們暴力許多的，
02:00
that violence has been in decline for long stretches of time,
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隨著時間的延繩，暴力出現的頻率才逐漸減少，
02:04
and that today we are probably living in the most peaceful time in our species' existence.
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我想我們現在很有可能是活在人類最和平的時期
02:07
Now, in the decade of Darfur and Iraq,
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在這個達富爾和伊拉克戰亂的時代
02:12
a statement like that might seem somewhere between hallucinatory
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說這是最和平的時代，聽起來好像天方夜譚
02:15
and obscene. But I'm going to try to convince you
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但我現在就要像你證明
02:18
that that is the correct picture. The decline of violence
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事實正是如此。暴力頻率的下滑
02:24
is a fractal phenomenon. You can see it over millennia,
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是呈現不規律的現象。你可以從千年，
02:27
over centuries, over decades and over years,
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百年，十年或年為單位來觀察
02:31
although there seems to have been a tipping point at the onset
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儘管在１６世紀理性時代的初期
02:33
of the Age of Reason in the sixteenth century. One sees it
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似乎也存在過一個最高點
02:37
all over the world, although not homogeneously.
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這是世界上普遍的現象，而不是局限於一地
02:41
It's especially evident in the West, beginning with England
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這種現象在西方尤其明顯，從英國
02:44
and Holland around the time of the Enlightenment.
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和荷蘭大約在啟蒙時代開始
02:47
Let me take you on a journey of several powers of 10 --
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讓我帶你看看以１０為基數
02:51
from the millennium scale to the year scale --
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從以千年為單位到以年為單位
02:53
to try to persuade you of this. Until 10,000 years ago, all humans
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來嘗試說服你。一直到一萬年以前，所有的人類
02:57
lived as hunter-gatherers, without permanent settlements
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以打獵維生，沒有固定的聚集地
03:00
or government. And this is the state that's commonly thought
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或政府。這個狀態通常被認為是
03:03
to be one of primordial harmony. But the archaeologist
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原始的和諧狀態。但考古學家
03:09
Lawrence Keeley, looking at casualty rates
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Lawrence Keeley，通過觀察當代狩獵者的死亡率
03:13
among contemporary hunter-gatherers, which is our best source
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－－這種的生活方式是我們最好的證據來源
03:17
of evidence about this way of life, has shown a rather different conclusion.
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－－得出了不同的結論。
03:23
Here is a graph that he put together
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這是他所統計出來的圖表
03:25
showing the percentage of male deaths due to warfare
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顯示出在一些遊牧民族中
03:28
in a number of foraging, or hunting and gathering societies.
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男性因戰爭而死所占的比率
03:33
The red bars correspond to the likelihood that a man will die
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紅色條表示男性死於其他人之手的可能性
03:39
at the hands of another man, as opposed to passing away
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對應於自然死亡
03:42
of natural causes, in a variety of foraging societies
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數據來自於新幾內高地和亞馬遜雨林的
03:46
in the New Guinea Highlands and the Amazon Rainforest.
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許多個遊牧民族。
03:50
And they range from a rate of almost a 60 percent chance that a man will die
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他們成員死於其他人之手的比例接近高達６０％
03:53
at the hands of another man to, in the case of the Gebusi,
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在Gebusi民族中，只有１５％。
03:57
only a 15 percent chance. The tiny, little blue bar in the lower
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在左下角的藍色條
04:01
left-hand corner plots the corresponding statistic from United States
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描繪了２０世紀的美國和歐洲
04:05
and Europe in the twentieth century, and includes all the deaths
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相應的數據，還包括了一，二次世界大戰死者。
04:09
of both World Wars. If the death rate in tribal warfare had prevailed
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如果部落戰爭中的死亡率是普通的現象
04:14
during the 20th century, there would have been two billion deaths rather than 100 million.
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那麼在２０世紀，死亡戰爭人數應該是２０億而不是１億。
04:20
Also at the millennium scale, we can look
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同樣的以千年為單位，我們可以來看看
04:23
at the way of life of early civilizations such as the ones described
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被記錄在聖經早期的文明生活方式
04:28
in the Bible. And in this supposed source of our moral values,
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在聖經這本我們理論上的道德準則中
04:33
one can read descriptions of what was expected in warfare,
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我們可以看到當中對於戰爭行為的描述，
04:37
such as the following from Numbers 31: "And they warred
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好比民數記３１中記載道＂他們就照著
04:40
against the Midianites as the Lord commanded Moses,
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耶和華所吩咐摩西的與米甸人打戰，
04:43
and they slew all the males. And Moses said unto them,
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他們把男丁都殺光。然後摩西對他們說，
04:46
'Have you saved all the women alive? Now, therefore, kill every male
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＂你們讓女人都活下來了嗎？因此，現在你們要把所有的男性
04:50
among the little ones and kill every woman that hath known man
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和已經出嫁的女性都殺了
04:53
by lying with him, but all the women children that have not know a man
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但在女性中，凡還沒出嫁的，
04:57
by lying with him keep alive for yourselves.'" In other words,
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你們都可以把她們留下來。＂換句話說，
05:00
kill the men; kill the children; if you see any virgins,
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殺掉男人，殺掉小孩，但如果看到少女
05:05
then you can keep them alive so that you can rape them.
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你就可以留下活口然後佔有她們。
05:08
You can find four or five passages in the Bible of this ilk.
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在聖經中你可以看到４，５段類似這樣的記錄。
05:12
Also in the Bible, one sees that the death penalty
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同樣的死刑在聖經
05:15
was the accepted punishment for crimes such as homosexuality,
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是可接受的懲罰方式例如對於同性戀，
05:20
adultery, blasphemy, idolatry, talking back to your parents --
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通姦，褻瀆，盲目崇拜，說父母壞話－－
05:24
(Laughter) -- and picking up sticks on the Sabbath.
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（笑聲）－－在安息日勞動等罪行。
05:28
Well, let's click the zoom lens
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好的，讓我們放大一格
05:31
down one order of magnitude, and look at the century scale.
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來觀察一下以世紀為單位的數據。
05:34
Although we don't have statistics for warfare throughout
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儘管我們沒有所有
05:39
the Middle Ages to modern times,
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從中世紀到現代戰爭的數據
05:40
we know just from conventional history -- the evidence
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我們僅用現有的歷史－－
05:43
was under our nose all along that there has been a reduction
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有關這樣的數據一直近在眼前：
05:47
in socially sanctioned forms of violence.
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人類社會所支持的暴力行為一直在減少
05:50
For example, any social history will reveal that mutilation and torture
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例如，文明史都有記錄截肢和酷刑
05:54
were routine forms of criminal punishment. The kind of infraction
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是常見的罪行懲罰方式。
05:57
today that would give you a fine, in those days would result in
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如今只能讓你被罰款的違法，在過去可能會導致
06:01
your tongue being cut out, your ears being cut off, you being blinded,
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你被割舌，割耳，挖眼，
06:05
a hand being chopped off and so on.
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斬手等結果
06:07
There were numerous ingenious forms of sadistic capital punishment:
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世界各地有無數中變態的斬首方式：
06:12
burning at the stake, disemboweling, breaking on the wheel,
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捆在木上燒，開膛破肚，車裂，
06:15
being pulled apart by horses and so on.
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五馬分屍等等。
06:18
The death penalty was a sanction for a long list of non-violent crimes:
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而准予處以死刑的非暴力罪行有很長的列表：
06:22
criticizing the king, stealing a loaf of bread. Slavery, of course,
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比如批評國王，偷麵包。當然，奴隸制，
06:27
was the preferred labor-saving device, and cruelty was
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是種理想的節約勞力的制度，而殘酷的行為則被認為
06:31
a popular form of entertainment. Perhaps the most vivid example
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是一種流行的娛樂方式。或許最生動的例子
06:34
was the practice of cat burning, in which a cat was hoisted
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就是火燒貓的行為，貓在平台上吊被起來
06:37
on a stage and lowered in a sling into a fire,
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通過吊索慢慢放入火中，
06:40
and the spectators shrieked in laughter as the cat, howling in pain,
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圍觀的人發出愉悅的尖叫聲，而貓在火中痛苦地嚎叫，
06:46
was burned to death.
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直到死亡。
06:48
What about one-on-one murder? Well, there, there are good statistics,
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那麼有關於一對一凶殺呢？這裡有很好的統計資料，
06:51
because many municipalities recorded the cause of death.
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因為當時市政當局都記錄了死因。
06:57
The criminologist Manuel Eisner
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犯罪學家Manuel Eisner
07:02
scoured all of the historical records across Europe
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整理了歐洲所有的歷史紀錄
07:04
for homicide rates in any village, hamlet, town, county
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涉及到他所能找到的鄉，村，鎮，縣
07:09
that he could find, and he supplemented them
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然後他綜合了
07:11
with national data, when nations started keeping statistics.
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有數據以來的所有國家數據
07:15
He plotted on a logarithmic scale, going from 100 deaths
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他用對數表示，從每年每十萬人有一百人死亡
07:22
per 100,000 people per year, which was approximately the rate
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，略等於中世紀的兇殺案發生率。
07:28
of homicide in the Middle Ages. And the figure plummets down
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然後數據降低到了
07:33
to less than one homicide per 100,000 people per year
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每年每十萬人中少於一例死亡率
07:38
in seven or eight European countries. Then, there is a slight uptick
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在七到八個歐洲國家。然後再１９６０年代稍有上漲。
07:42
in the 1960s. The people who said that rock 'n' roll would lead
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那部分說搖滾導致道德淪失的人
07:46
to the decline of moral values actually had a grain of truth to that.
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確實是有一定的道理。
07:50
But there was a decline from at least two orders of magnitude
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但謀殺率數據至少減少有兩個數量級
07:54
in homicide from the Middle Ages to the present,
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從中世紀到現在，
07:57
and the elbow occurred in the early sixteenth century.
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數據拐角出現在１６世紀初期。
08:02
Let's click down now to the decade scale.
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接下來以十年為單位來觀察。
08:04
According to non-governmental organizations
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根據一些非政府組織的相關數據
08:07
that keep such statistics, since 1945, in Europe and the Americas,
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從１９４５年起，在歐洲和美洲
08:11
there has been a steep decline in interstate wars,
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的國家之間的戰爭，
08:15
in deadly ethnic riots or pogroms, and in military coups,
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嚴重的種族暴亂和軍事政變的數量急遽減少
08:19
even in South America. Worldwide, there's been a steep decline
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甚至連南美洲也是如此。全球普遍上，因國家之間的戰爭的死亡數量急遽減少
08:23
in deaths in interstate wars. The yellow bars here show the number
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這裡的黃色條顯示
08:29
of deaths per war per year from 1950 to the present.
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從１９５０年到現在每年每場戰爭的死亡數量。
08:34
And, as you can see, the death rate goes down from 65,000 deaths
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正如你所見，死亡數從原先１９５０年的每年每場戰爭的65,000例
08:38
per conflict per year in the 1950s to less than 2,000 deaths
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減少至近十年每年每場戰爭的的2,000例死亡，
08:42
per conflict per year in this decade, as horrific as it is.
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儘管這些戰爭都很殘酷。
08:46
Even in the year scale, one can see a decline of violence.
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就算是以年的單位也能看出暴力行為的減少
08:50
Since the end of the Cold War, there have been fewer civil wars,
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自從冷戰結束，內戰就很少再發生，
08:53
fewer genocides -- indeed, a 90 percent reduction since post-World War II highs --
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種族殘殺幾乎絕跡－－其實，數據從二戰之後的最高點降低了９０％－－
08:59
and even a reversal of the 1960s uptick in homicide and violent crime.
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即使在６０年代凶殺率的暴力有稍微回升。
09:05
This is from the FBI Uniform Crime Statistics. You can see
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這是聯邦調查局的數據統計：你可以看到
09:09
that there is a fairly low rate of violence in the '50s and the '60s,
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在５０年代和６０年代暴力行為發生率相對較低
09:13
then it soared upward for several decades, and began
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經過幾十年的上升然後開始
09:17
a precipitous decline, starting in the 1990s, so that it went back
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從９０年代急速的下降，一直回到
09:21
to the level that was last enjoyed in 1960.
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將近６０年代的水平
09:25
President Clinton, if you're here, thank you.
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柯林頓總統，如果您在這裡，我對您說聲謝謝。
09:27
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
09:29
So the question is, why are so many people so wrong
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所以問題是：為什麼這麼多的人對於如此重大的問題都持有錯誤觀念？
09:32
about something so important? I think there are a number of reasons.
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我想原因很多。
09:36
One of them is we have better reporting. The Associated Press
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其一我們有了更多的媒體報導。＂美聯社
09:39
is a better chronicler of wars over the surface of the Earth
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比起１６世紀的僧人
09:43
than sixteenth-century monks were.
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是地球上更好的戰爭編年體的作者。＂
09:47
There's a cognitive illusion. We cognitive psychologists know that the easier it is
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還有一個認知的幻覺：認知的心理學家都知道
09:52
to recall specific instances of something,
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曝光率越高的事
09:55
the higher the probability that you assign to it.
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越容易勾起你的具體回憶。
09:58
Things that we read about in the paper with gory footage
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我們每天閱讀報紙中血淋淋的描寫
10:02
burn into memory more than reports of a lot more people dying
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這對我們記憶的影響遠遠大於
10:06
in their beds of old age. There are dynamics in the opinion
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大部分人是在病床上自然老死的事實。
10:12
and advocacy markets: no one ever attracted observers, advocates
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群衆意見導向和市場宣傳上有這樣的論調：
10:17
and donors by saying
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說＂事情看來變得越來越好。＂是不能引起觀察家，擁護者
10:19
things just seem to be getting better and better.
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和捐助者們的注意的
10:21
(Laughter)
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（眾笑）
10:22
There's guilt about our treatment of native peoples
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在這文明的社會裡處理原住民問題的過失
10:25
in modern intellectual life, and an unwillingness to acknowledge
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使我們普遍覺得很內疚，以致不情願承認
10:28
there could be anything good about Western culture.
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關於西方文化一些好的方面。
10:31
And of course, our change in standards can outpace the change
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當然，我們在標準上的改變可以領先行為上的該變。
10:36
in behavior. One of the reasons violence went down
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暴力行為下降的原因之一
10:39
is that people got sick of the carnage and cruelty in their time.
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是因爲人們對大屠殺和殘忍性已經感到厭倦了。
10:42
That's a process that seems to be continuing,
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在行爲上看起來還是個正在進行中的改變，
10:45
but if it outstrips behavior by the standards of the day,
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但如果標準認知上的改變超過行為上的改變，
10:49
things always look more barbaric than they would have been
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在歷史上看來事情永遠比以前更野蠻
10:52
by historic standards. So today, we get exercised -- and rightly so --
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所以，今天，我們受到訓練－－很應該地－－
10:56
if a handful of murderers get executed by lethal injection
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如果一小撮殺人犯在德州經過１５年的上訴程序
11:02
in Texas after a 15-year appeal process. We don't consider
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被判以注射死刑的懲罰。我們不會去想
11:07
that a couple of hundred years ago, they may have been burned
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在幾百年前，只因為他們批評了國王
11:10
at the stake for criticizing the king after a trial
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在經過１０分鐘的審判後
11:13
that lasted 10 minutes, and indeed, that that would have been repeated
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他們會被處以火刑－－的卻，那種情形很可能會重複發生
11:16
over and over again. Today, we look at capital punishment
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今天我們把極刑看成
11:21
as evidence of how low our behavior can sink,
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我們行為淪落程度的證據，
11:24
rather than how high our standards have risen.
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而不是我們行為標準的進化。
11:28
Well, why has violence declined? No one really knows,
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那麼，為什麼暴力行為下降了？沒有人知道，
11:31
but I have read four explanations, all of which, I think,
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但是我讀過４種解釋，它們都是我認為
11:36
have some grain of plausibility. The first is, maybe
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都是比較可信的。第一種解釋是：
11:39
Thomas Hobbes got it right. He was the one who said
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或許Thomas Hobbes是對的。他說過
11:42
that life in a state of nature was "solitary, poor, nasty, brutish
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自然狀態下生命是＂孤獨，貧窮，骯髒，野蠻
11:47
and short." Not because, he argued,
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和短暫的。＂不是因為
11:51
humans have some primordial thirst for blood
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人們有著對血腥行為，
11:54
or aggressive instinct or territorial imperative,
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侵略性或領土保護的原始本能，
11:58
but because of the logic of anarchy. In a state of anarchy,
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而是因為無政府狀態的邏輯性。在無政府的狀態下，
12:01
there's a constant temptation to invade your neighbors preemptively,
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在你鄰居侵犯你之前，先下手為強是無可避免的趨勢
12:05
before they invade you. More recently, Thomas Schelling
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最近Thomas Schelling
12:08
gives the analogy of a homeowner who hears a rustling
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做了以下比喻：一個房東聽到地下室有沙沙的聲音
12:11
in the basement. Being a good American, he has a pistol
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做為一位美國好公民，他的床頭櫃裡有一把手槍
12:13
in the nightstand, pulls out his gun, and walks down the stairs.
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於是他裝上子彈，走下樓梯
12:17
And what does he see but a burglar with a gun in his hand.
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然後他看到盜賊拿著一把手槍
12:20
Now, each one of them is thinking,
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他們倆個都在想
12:21
"I don't really want to kill that guy, but he's about to kill me.
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＂如果我不殺了他，就是他殺了我。＂
12:25
Maybe I had better shoot him, before he shoots me,
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或許在他幹掉我之前，我得先下為強
12:29
especially since, even if he doesn't want to kill me,
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特別是，就算他沒有打算殺我
12:31
he's probably worrying right now that I might kill him
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他現在很可能會認為在他幹掉我之前，我會先把他幹掉。＂
12:34
before he kills me." And so on.
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等等...
12:37
Hunter-gatherer peoples explicitly go through this train of thought,
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狩獵為生的人們經過這樣明確的思考，
12:42
and will often raid their neighbors out of fear of being raided first.
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通常會因為擔心自己先被幹掉而先幹掉他們的鄰居
12:47
Now, one way of dealing with this problem is by deterrence.
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如今，解決這個問題唯一的方法是通過威懾：
12:50
You don't strike first, but you have a publicly announced policy
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你不先進攻，但是你先公開宣稱
12:55
that you will retaliate savagely if you are invaded.
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如果你受到侵犯，你將會進行野蠻的報復
12:58
The only thing is that it's
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這樣宣稱唯一的事情是
13:00
liable to having its bluff called, and therefore can only work
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很可能被稱為虛張聲勢，所以只有在可信的情況下進行才變得可能
13:05
if it's credible. To make it credible, you must avenge all insults
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為了使其變得有可能，你必須報復所有的侵犯
13:10
and settle all scores, which leads to the cycles of bloody vendetta.
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和擺平所有的恩怨，但這又會導致血腥復仇的惡性循環
13:14
Life becomes an episode of "The Sopranos." Hobbes' solution,
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人生就會變成像電視劇＂黑道家族＂。Hobbes的解決方案為
13:19
the "Leviathan," was that if authority for the legitimate use
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如果對暴力行為，權力的合法使用
13:23
of violence was vested in a single democratic agency -- a leviathan --
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是屬於一個單一的民主結構－－ 一個權力巨獸 －－
13:29
then such a state can reduce the temptation of attack,
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那麽這樣一個國家就能降低攻擊的誘惑性，
13:32
because any kind of aggression will be punished,
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因為任何一種侵犯都會受到懲罰，
13:35
leaving its profitability as zero. That would remove the temptation
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使進攻的好處變為零。那就會消除因為擔心他人會先幹掉你
13:40
to invade preemptively, out of fear of them attacking you first.
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而造成你先下手為強的誘惑性。
13:44
It removes the need for a hair trigger for retaliation
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同時也消除了為了使你的威懾變為可信立即報復的需要。
13:48
to make your deterrent threat credible. And therefore, it would lead
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因此，這可以為
13:51
to a state of peace. Eisner -- the man who plotted the homicide rates
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一個國家帶來和平。Eisner－－那個在之前的幻燈片裏
13:57
that you failed to see in the earlier slide --
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統計你看不到的凶殺率的人 ——
14:00
argued that the timing of the decline of homicide in Europe
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他主張歐洲凶殺率下降的那個時期
14:04
coincided with the rise of centralized states.
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剛好是中央集權的崛起。
14:08
So that's a bit of a support for the leviathan theory.
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那是對權力巨獸理論的小證明。
14:11
Also supporting it is the fact that we today see eruptions of violence
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同時支持這理論的還有我們今天看到無政府狀態
14:15
in zones of anarchy, in failed states, collapsed empires,
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爆發的暴力行為：在失勢的國家，崩潰的帝國，
14:19
frontier regions, mafias, street gangs and so on.
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邊境地區，黑手黨，街頭幫派等等。
14:25
The second explanation is that in many times and places,
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第二種解釋是在很多的時空情境下
14:28
there is a widespread sentiment that life is cheap.
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有人命本賤的看法。
14:32
In earlier times, when suffering and early death were common
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在早期，當痛苦和早逝對於一個人是很平凡的事的時候
14:36
in one's own life, one has fewer compunctions about inflicting them
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人們對於造成他人受苦或死亡的內疚感就不會強烈。
14:40
on others. And as technology and economic efficiency make life
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當科技和經濟有效地使我們的生命
14:44
longer and more pleasant, one puts a higher value on life in general.
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延長並且更愉快，人們普遍上對於生命會有更高的評價。
14:48
This was an argument from the political scientist James Payne.
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這是政治學家James Payne的論點。
14:52
A third explanation invokes the concept of a nonzero-sum game,
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第三種解釋用了＂非零和遊戲＂的概念
14:56
and was worked out in the book "Nonzero" by the journalist
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在記者Robert Wright的＜非零＞的一書中有提到。
15:00
Robert Wright. Wright points out that in certain circumstances,
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Wright指出在某些的情況下
15:04
cooperation or non-violence can benefit both parties
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合作，包括非暴力的，能使雙方互利的，
15:07
in an interaction, such as gains in trade when two parties trade
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比如交易的所得，當雙方交換
15:13
their surpluses and both come out ahead, or when two parties
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他們的盈餘然後雙方最後都以贏利告終，或者當雙方
15:17
lay down their arms and split the so-called peace dividend
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放下武器然後分賍所謂的和平利得
15:20
that results in them not having to fight the whole time.
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這將會使他們從此不會發生戰爭。
15:24
Wright argues that technology has increased the number
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Wright認爲科技提升了＂正和遊戲＂的籌碼，
15:26
of positive-sum games that humans tend to be embroiled in,
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因爲科技的發達使得
15:31
by allowing the trade of goods, services and ideas
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貨物、服務和思想能在更長時間的、距離上
15:34
over longer distances and among larger groups of people.
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和更多的人交流
15:38
The result is that other people become more valuable alive than dead,
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結果是人們活著比死去更有用，
15:41
and violence declines for selfish reasons. As Wright put it,
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因為自私的原因，暴力行為下降了。如Wright所說，
15:47
"Among the many reasons that I think that we should not bomb
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＂我認為我們不應該轟炸日本的眾多原因之一是
15:49
the Japanese is that they built my mini-van."
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他們生産了我的多功能休旅車。＂
15:52
(Laughter)
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（眾笑）
15:54
The fourth explanation is captured in the title of a book
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第四種解釋是取自一本書的標題
15:58
called "The Expanding Circle," by the philosopher Peter Singer,
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它叫做＜擴張的圈子＞，由哲學家Peter Singer所寫，
16:02
who argues that evolution bequeathed humans with a sense
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他認爲進化帶給人類相同的感情：
16:05
of empathy, an ability to treat other peoples' interests
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一種將他人利益的換做為
16:10
as comparable to one's own. Unfortunately, by default
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自己利益的能力。不幸地，在默認的狀態下
16:14
we apply it only to a very narrow circle of friends and family.
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我們將這種能力侷限於只有朋友和家人一個很窄很窄的圈子。
16:18
People outside that circle are treated as sub-human,
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在圈外的人們被當作是次等人，
16:21
and can be exploited with impunity. But, over history,
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然後他們可以隨便地被利用。但是經過時間的變遷，
16:25
the circle has expanded. One can see, in historical record,
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圈子已經擴張了。可以看見的事，在歷史紀錄中，
16:29
it expanding from the village, to the clan, to the tribe,
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它從鄉村，擴展到氏族，擴張到部落，
16:33
to the nation, to other races, to both sexes,
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擴張到國家，擴展到其他種族，擴展到異性
16:36
and, in Singer's own arguments, something that we should extend
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並且，在 Singer自己的論點中，擴展到一些
16:38
to other sentient species. The question is,
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其他我們應該有感情的物種上。問題是，
16:43
if this has happened, what has powered that expansion?
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如果這種情況實現了，是甚麼驅使這種擴張？
16:46
And there are a number of possibilities, such as increasing circles
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然後這有很多種可能。在這個意義上增加
16:49
of reciprocity in the sense that Robert Wright argues for.
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Robert Wright所認為的互惠圈
16:54
The logic of the golden rule -- the more you think about and interact
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這個黃金法則的邏輯是：你越為他人著想
16:58
with other people, the more you realize that it is untenable
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越同他人交流，你將越意識到把你的利益
17:02
to privilege your interests over theirs,
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凌駕在他人之上是站不住腳的，
17:06
at least not if you want them to listen to you. You can't say
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至少在你希望他們聽你的時候是這樣的。你不能說
17:09
that my interests are special compared to yours,
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我的利益比你的利益更重要，
17:12
anymore than you can say that the particular spot
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你再也不能說，你說你站在的那個地方
17:15
that I'm standing on is a unique part of the universe
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是宇宙中獨特的一個地方
17:18
because I happen to be standing on it that very minute.
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因為這是剛巧你在那個時刻站在那個地方。
17:21
It may also be powered by cosmopolitanism, by histories,
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也有可能是世界主義所造成的擴張：根據歷史
17:25
and journalism, and memoirs, and realistic fiction, and travel,
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新聞，回憶錄，現實小說，旅行
17:29
and literacy, which allows you to project yourself into the lives
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以及文學，這些讓你將你自己融入
17:33
of other people that formerly you may have treated as sub-human,
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那些你先前認為是次等人的生活，
17:37
and also to realize the accidental contingency of your own station
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同時意識到你自己在生命中的偶然性
17:41
in life, the sense that "there but for fortune go I."
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那種＂聽天由命＂的感覺
17:46
Whatever its causes, the decline of violence, I think,
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無論是甚麼原因，暴力的下降
17:49
has profound implications. It should force us to ask not just, why
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具有深刻的影響。它應該迫使我們不只是問＂為甚麼
17:53
is there war? But also, why is there peace? Not just,
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會有戰爭？＂而是要問＂為什麼有和平？＂而不只是
17:58
what are we doing wrong? But also, what have we been doing right?
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＂我們做錯了甚麼？＂而是＂我們做對了甚麼？＂
18:02
Because we have been doing something right,
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因為我們曾經做對了某些事情，
18:04
and it sure would be good to find out what it is.
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而把這些作對的事找出來是一定有好處的。
18:06
Thank you very much.
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非常感謝大家。
18:07
(Applause).
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（掌聲）。
18:18
Chris Anderson: I loved that talk. I think a lot of people here in the room would say
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Chris Anderson：我很喜愛這個講座會。我認為在這裡的人都會說
18:22
that that expansion of -- that you were talking about,
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那個擴張－－你說講到的那個，
18:25
that Peter Singer talks about, is also driven by, just by technology,
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那個Peter Singer所說的，同時也是因為科技，
18:28
by greater visibility of the other, and the sense that the world
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因為其他人的可見性，因為對世界的感知
18:32
is therefore getting smaller. I mean, is that also a grain of truth?
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使得一切變小了。我的意思是說，也是有些道理吧？
18:36
Steven Pinker: Very much. It would fit both in Wright's theory,
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Steven Pinker:非常有道理。這符合Wright的理論，
18:40
that it allows us to enjoy the benefits of cooperation
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引許我們享受合作的利益
18:44
over larger and larger circles. But also, I think it helps us
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在一個更大更闊的圈子。當然，我認為它幫助我們
18:49
imagine what it's like to be someone else. I think when you read
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想像這對於他人，它又是甚麼。我認為當你讀到
18:52
these horrific tortures that were common in the Middle Ages, you think,
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一些在中世紀很常見的那些恐怖的遭遇，你會想
18:55
how could they possibly have done it,
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他們怎麼能做出這樣的事情，
18:57
how could they have not have empathized with the person
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他們怎麼能不同情被他們殘害的人
19:00
that they're disemboweling? But clearly,
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但很明顯的事，
19:03
as far as they're concerned, this is just an alien being
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對於他們而言，他們就只是個外星人
19:06
that does not have feelings akin to their own. Anything, I think,
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不會對他們有任何感情。任何事情，我認為，
19:09
that makes it easier to imagine trading places
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能將想像與他人互換立場變成更容易的事情
19:12
with someone else means that it increases your moral consideration
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這意味著它能夠增強
19:15
to that other person.
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你對他人的道德心。
19:16
CA: Well, Steve, I would love every news media owner to hear that talk
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CA: 非常好, Steve,我希望每個新聞媒體的持有人在明年的時候都有聽到你的講座
19:20
at some point in the next year. I think it's really important. Thank you so much.
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我覺得這太重要了。非常感謝你。
19:22
SP: My pleasure.
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SP: 這是我的榮幸。
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Steven Pinker - PsychologistSteven Pinker is a professor of cognitive science (the study of the human mind) who writes about language, mind and human nature.
Why you should listen
Steven Pinker grew up in the English-speaking community of Montreal but has spent his adult life bouncing back and forth between Harvard and MIT. He is interested in all aspects of human nature: how we see, hear, think, speak, remember, feel and interact.
To be specific: he developed the first comprehensive theory of language acquisition in children, used verb meaning as a window into cognition, probed the limits of neural networks and showed how the interaction between memory and computation shapes language. He has used evolution to illuminate innuendo, emotional expression and social coordination. He has documented historical declines in violence and explained them in terms of the ways that the violent and peaceable components of human nature interact in different eras. He has written books on the language instinct, how the mind works, the stuff of thought and the doctrine of the blank slate, together with a guide to stylish writing that is rooted in psychology.
In his latest book, Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress, he writes about progress -- why people are healthier, richer, safer, happier and better educated than ever. His other books include The Language Instinct, How the Mind Works, The Blank Slate: The Modern Denial of Human Nature, The Stuff of Thought, and The Better Angels of Our Nature.
Steven Pinker | Speaker | TED.com