TEDGlobal 2011
Niall Ferguson: The 6 killer apps of prosperity
Niall Ferguson: Velstandens 6 dræber apps
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I løbet af de sidste århundreder har vestlige kulturer været særligt gode til at skabe udbredt velstand for dem selv. Historikeren Niall Ferguson spørger: Hvorfor i Vesten og i mindre grad hos resten? Han foreslår et halvt dusin store ideer fra vestens kultur -- kalder dem de 6 killer apps -- som skabte velstand, stabilitet og innovation. Og i det nye århundrede, siger han, kan alle dele disse apps.
Niall Ferguson - Historian
History is a curious thing, and Niall Ferguson investigates not only what happened but why. (Hint: Politics and money explain a lot.) Full bio
History is a curious thing, and Niall Ferguson investigates not only what happened but why. (Hint: Politics and money explain a lot.) Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Let's talk about billions.
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Lad os tale om milliarder
00:18
Let's talk about
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Lad os tale om
00:21
past and future billions.
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forrige og fremtidige milliarder.
00:24
We know
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Vi ved
00:26
that about 106 billion people
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at omkring 106 milliarder mennesker
00:29
have ever lived.
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har levet her.
00:31
And we know that most of them are dead.
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Og vi ved at de fleste af dem er døde.
00:34
And we also know
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Vi ved også at
00:36
that most of them live or lived in Asia.
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de fleste af dem lever eller har levet i Asien.
00:38
And we also know
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Og vi ved også
00:40
that most of them were or are very poor --
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at de fleste af dem var eller er meget fattige --
00:44
did not live for very long.
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lever ikke særligt længe.
00:47
Let's talk about billions.
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Lad os tale om milliarder.
00:50
Let's talk about
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Lad os tale om
00:52
the 195,000 billion dollars of wealth
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den 195.000 milliarder dollars store formue
00:56
in the world today.
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i verden i dag.
00:59
We know that most of that wealth
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Vi ved at det meste af den formue
01:02
was made after the year 1800.
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er skabt efter året 1800.
01:05
And we know that most of it
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Og vi ved at det meste af den
01:08
is currently owned
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er for øjeblikket ejet
01:10
by people we might call Westerners:
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af folk vi kan kalde vesterlændinge:
01:14
Europeans, North Americans, Australasians.
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Europæer, nordamerikanere og australiere.
01:18
19 percent of the world's population today,
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19 procent af verdens befolkning i dag.
01:21
Westerners own two-thirds of its wealth.
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Vesterlændinge ejer totredjedele af dens formue.
01:25
Economic historians
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Økonomihistorikere
01:27
call this "The Great Divergence."
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kaldet dette "Den store adskillelse"
01:30
And this slide here
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Og denne slide
01:32
is the best simplification
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er den bedste simplificering
01:34
of the Great Divergence story
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af historien om Den store adskillelse
01:36
I can offer you.
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jeg kan tilbyde jer.
01:38
It's basically two ratios
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Det er basalt set to forhold mellem
01:40
of per capita GDP,
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per person BNP,
01:42
per capita gross domestic product,
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per person bruttonationalprodukt,
01:45
so average income.
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altså gennemsnitlig indkomst.
01:47
One, the red line,
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Den røde linje
01:49
is the ratio of British to Indian
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er forholdet mellem en britisk og indisk
01:51
per capita income.
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gennemsnitsindkomst.
01:53
And the blue line
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Og den blå linje
01:55
is the ratio of American to Chinese.
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er forholdet mellem en amerikansk og en kinesisk.
01:58
And this chart goes back to 1500.
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Denne graf går tilbage til 1500.
02:00
And you can see here
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Og du kan se her
02:02
that there's an exponential Great Divergence.
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at adskillelsen vokser eksponentielt.
02:05
They start off pretty close together.
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De starter temmelig ens.
02:07
In fact, in 1500,
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Faktisk, i 1500,
02:09
the average Chinese was richer than the average North American.
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var den gennemsnitlige kineser rigere end den gennemsnitlige nordamerikaner.
02:13
When you get to the 1970s,
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Når du kommer til 1970'erne,
02:16
which is where this chart ends,
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som er hvor denne graf ender,
02:18
the average Briton is more than 10 times richer
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er den gennemsnitlige brite mere end 10 gange rigere
02:20
than the average Indian.
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en den gennemsnitlige inder.
02:22
And that's allowing
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Og der er korrigeret for
02:24
for differences in the cost of living.
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for forskelle i priser.
02:26
It's based on purchasing power parity.
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Det er baseret på købekraftspariteter.
02:29
The average American
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Den gennemsnitlige amerikaner
02:31
is nearly 20 times richer
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er omtrent 20 gange rigere
02:33
than the average Chinese
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end den gennemsnitlige kineser
02:35
by the 1970s.
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i 1970'erne.
02:37
So why?
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Hvordan det?
02:40
This wasn't just an economic story.
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Dette er ikke bare en økonomisk historie.
02:43
If you take the 10 countries
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Hvis du tager de 10 lande
02:45
that went on to become
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som blev
02:48
the Western empires,
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de vestlige imperier,
02:50
in 1500 they were really quite tiny --
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i 1500 var de ret bette --
02:53
five percent of the world's land surface,
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fem procent af verdens landoverflade,
02:55
16 percent of its population,
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16 procent af det befolkning,
02:57
maybe 20 percent of its income.
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måske 20 procent af dets indkomst.
03:00
By 1913,
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Men i 1913,
03:02
these 10 countries, plus the United States,
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disse 10 lande, plus USA,
03:05
controlled vast global empires --
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kontrollerede enorme globale imperier --
03:08
58 percent of the world's territory,
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58 procent af verdens territorium,
03:10
about the same percentage of its population,
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omtrent den samme procentdel af dets befolkning,
03:13
and a really huge, nearly three-quarters share
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og en virkelig stor, omtrent trefjerdedeles andel
03:16
of global economic output.
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af det globale økonomiske output.
03:18
And notice, most of that went to the motherland,
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Og bemærk, det meste af det gik til moderlandene,
03:22
to the imperial metropoles,
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til imperiernes metropoler,
03:24
not to their colonial possessions.
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ikke til deres koloniale besiddelser.
03:28
Now you can't just blame this on imperialism --
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Men du kan bare ikke skyde skylden på imperialismen --
03:30
though many people have tried to do so --
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selvom mange mennesker har forsøgt det --
03:33
for two reasons.
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af to grunde.
03:36
One, empire was the least original thing
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For det første, imperier var den mindst originale ting
03:39
that the West did after 1500.
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som Vesten gjorde efter 1500.
03:42
Everybody did empire.
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Alle skabte imperier.
03:45
They beat preexisting Oriental empires
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De slog eksisterende østlige imperier
03:48
like the Mughals and the Ottomans.
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som Mogulerne og Osmannerne.
03:50
So it really doesn't look like empire is a great explanation
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Så det ser virkeligt ikke ud som om imperier er nogen god forklaring
03:53
for the Great Divergence.
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for Den store adskillelse.
03:55
In any case, as you may remember,
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Under alle omstændigheder, som I måske husker,
03:57
the Great Divergence reaches its zenith in the 1970s,
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den store adskillelse nåede sit højdepunkt i 1970'erne,
04:00
some considerable time after decolonization.
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betragtelig tid efter afkoloniseringen.
04:04
This is not a new question.
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Dette er ikke et nyt spørgsmål.
04:06
Samuel Johnson,
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Samuel Johnson,
04:08
the great lexicographer,
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den store ordbogsforfatter,
04:10
[posed] it through his character Rasselas
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udtrykte det gennem sin karakter Rasselas
04:13
in his novel "Rasselas, Prince of Abissinia,"
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i hans roman "Rasselas, prins af Abessinien"
04:16
published in 1759.
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udgivet i 1759.
04:19
"By what means are the Europeans thus powerful;
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"Af hvilken grund er europæerne så magtfulde,
04:22
or why, since they can so easily visit Asia and Africa
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siden de så let kan besøge Asien og Afrika
04:25
for trade or conquest,
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for handel eller erobring,
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cannot the Asiaticks and Africans
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hvorfor kan asiater og afrikanere ikke
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invade their coasts,
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invadere deres kyster,
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plant colonies in their ports,
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plante kolonier i deres havne
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and give laws to their natural princes?
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og give ordre til deres fyrster?
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The same wind that carries them back
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De samme vinde som bringer dem tilbage
04:40
would bring us thither?"
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burde bringe os derhen?"
04:42
That's a great question.
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Det er et godt spørgsmål.
04:44
And you know what,
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Og ved I hvad,
04:46
it was also being asked at roughly the same time
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det er også blevet stillet nogenlunde samtidigt
04:48
by the Resterners -- by the people in the rest of the world --
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af restlændingene -- af folket i resten af verden --
04:51
like Ibrahim Muteferrika,
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som Ibrahim Muteferrika
04:54
an Ottoman official,
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en Osmannisk embedsmand,
04:56
the man who introduced printing, very belatedly,
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manden der indførte trykning, meget forsinket,
04:59
to the Ottoman Empire --
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til det Osmanniske rige --
05:01
who said in a book published in 1731,
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som skrev i en bog udgivet 1731:
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"Why do Christian nations which were so weak in the past
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"Hvorfor er de kristne nationer, som var så svage før i tiden
05:06
compared with Muslim nations
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sammenlignet med de muslimske nationer,
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begin to dominate so many lands in modern times
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begyndt at dominere så mange lande i moderne tider
05:12
and even defeat the once victorious Ottoman armies?"
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og endda vinder over de før så sejrrige Osmanniske hære?"
05:16
Unlike Rasselas,
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Modsat Rasselas
05:18
Muteferrika had an answer to that question,
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havde Muteferrika et svar på spørgsmålet
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which was correct.
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som var korrekt.
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He said it was "because they have laws and rules
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Han skrev det var "fordi de har love og regler
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invented by reason."
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udledt af fornuften."
05:31
It's not geography.
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Det handler ikke om geografi.
05:34
You may think we can explain the Great Divergence
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Du tror at vi kan forklare den store adskillelse
05:36
in terms of geography.
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ud fra geografi.
05:38
We know that's wrong,
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Men vi ved at det er forkert,
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because we conducted two great natural experiments in the 20th century
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fordi vi har udført to store naturlige eksperimenter i det 20'ende århundrede
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to see if geography mattered more than institutions.
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for at se om geografi betød mere end institutioner.
05:44
We took all the Germans,
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Vi tog alle tyskerne
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we divided them roughly in two,
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og delte dem i 2 dele,
05:49
and we gave the ones in the East communism,
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hvor vi gav den ene del til den østlige kommunisme
05:52
and you see the result.
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og I ser resultatet.
05:55
Within an incredibly short period of time,
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Indenfor et ufatteligt kort tidsrum
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people living in the German Democratic Republic
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producerede menneskerne der levede i DDR
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produced Trabants, the Trabbi,
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trabanter, trabierne,
06:02
one of the world's worst ever cars,
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en af verden værste biler nogensinde,
06:05
while people in the West produced the Mercedes Benz.
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mens tyskerne i vest producerede Mercedes Benz.
06:08
If you still don't believe me,
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Hvis du stadigvæk ikke tror mig,
06:10
we conducted the experiment also in the Korean Peninsula.
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så udførte vi også forsøget på den Koreanske halvø.
06:12
And we decided we'd take Koreans
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Og vi besluttede at tage koreanerne
06:14
in roughly the same geographical place
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i nogenlunde samme geografiske område
06:16
with, notice, the same basic traditional culture,
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med, bemærk, den samme basale traditionelle kultur
06:20
and we divided them in two, and we gave the Northerners communism.
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og vi delte dem i to, og vi gav de nordlige kommunisme.
06:23
And the result is an even bigger divergence
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Og resultatet er en endnu større forskel
06:26
in a very short space of time
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i et meget kort tidsrum
06:28
than happened in Germany.
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end hvad der skete i Tyskland.
06:30
Not a big divergence in terms of uniform design for border guards admittedly,
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Indrømmet, ikke den store forskel hvad angår design af grænsevagternes uniformer,
06:34
but in almost every other respect,
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men i enhver anden henseende
06:36
it's a huge divergence.
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er det en kæmpe forskel.
06:38
Which leads me to think
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Hvilket får mig til at mene
06:40
that neither geography nor national character,
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at hverken geografi eller nationalkarakter,
06:42
popular explanations for this kind of thing,
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populære forklaringer for den slags ting,
06:44
are really significant.
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betyder noget.
06:47
It's the ideas.
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Det er ideerne.
06:49
It's the institutions.
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Det er institutionerne.
06:51
This must be true
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Dette må være rigtigt
06:53
because a Scotsman said it.
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fordi det er sagt af en skotte.
06:55
And I think I'm the only Scotsman here at the Edinburgh TED.
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Jeg tror jeg er den eneste skotte tilstede her på Edinburgh TED.
06:58
So let me just explain to you
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Så lad mig forklare for jer
07:00
that the smartest man ever was a Scotsman.
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at den klogeste mand som nogensinde har levet var en skotte.
07:03
He was Adam Smith --
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Han var Adam Smith --
07:05
not Billy Connolly, not Sean Connery --
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not Billy Connoly, not Sean Connery --
07:08
though he is very smart indeed.
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selvom har er meget smart.
07:11
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
07:14
Smith -- and I want you to go
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Smith -- og jeg vil have jer til at gå hen
07:16
and bow down before his statue in the Royal Mile;
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og knæle for hans statue på the Royal Mile.
07:19
it's a wonderful statue --
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Det er en fantastisk statue --
07:21
Smith, in the "Wealth of Nations"
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Smith, i "Nationernes velstand"
07:23
published in 1776 --
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udgivet i 1776 --
07:25
that's the most important thing that happened that year ...
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det var den vigtigste begivenhed som skete det år ..
07:28
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
07:31
You bet.
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Helt sikkert.
07:34
There was a little local difficulty in some of our minor colonies, but ...
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Der var en lille lokal besværlighed i en af vores mindre kolonier, men ...
07:37
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
07:39
"China seems to have been long stationary,
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"Kina syntes ikke at have udviklet sig længe
07:41
and probably long ago acquired that full complement of riches
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og har sandsynligvis for længe siden fuldbyrdet den rigdom
07:44
which is consistent with the nature of its laws and institutions.
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som ligger indenfor dets love og institutioners muligheder.
07:48
But this complement may be much inferior
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Men denne fuldbyrdelse er måske meget lavere
07:50
to what, with other laws and institutions,
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end hvad, med andre love og institutioner,
07:53
the nature of its soil, climate, and situation
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naturen af dets jord, klima og situation
07:55
might admit of."
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giver mulighed for."
07:57
That is so right and so cool.
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Det er så rigtigt og så cool.
07:59
And he said it such a long time ago.
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Og han sagde det for så længe siden.
08:02
But you know, this is a TED audience,
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Men som I ved, dette er et TED publikum
08:05
and if I keep talking about institutions,
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og hvis jeg fortsætter med at tale om institutioner
08:07
you're going to turn off.
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falder I i søvn.
08:09
So I'm going to translate this into language that you can understand.
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Så jeg vil oversætte det til et sprog i kan forstå.
08:13
Let's call them the killer apps.
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Lad os kalde dem killer apps.
08:17
I want to explain to you that there were six killer apps
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Jeg vil forklare for jer at der er seks killer apps
08:20
that set the West apart from the rest.
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som gav Vesten et forspring fra resten.
08:23
And they're kind of like the apps on your phone,
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De er killer apps på samme måde som dem på jeres mobil,
08:25
in the sense that they look quite simple.
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I den betydning at de ser simple ud.
08:27
They're just icons; you click on them.
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Det er bare ikoner, du klikker på.
08:29
But behind the icon, there's complex code.
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Men bag ikonet er det kompleks programmering.
08:32
It's the same with institutions.
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Det er det samme med institutioner.
08:34
There are six
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Der er seks
08:36
which I think explain the Great Divergence.
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som jeg mener kan forklare den store adskillelse.
08:39
One, competition.
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Et, konkurrence.
08:41
Two, the scientific revolution.
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To, den videnskabelige revolution.
08:43
Three, property rights.
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Tre, ejendomsret.
08:45
Four, modern medicine.
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Fire, moderne medicin.
08:47
Five, the consumer society.
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Fem, forbrugersamfundet.
08:49
And six, the work ethic.
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Og seks, arbejdsetik.
08:51
You can play a game and try and think of one I've missed at,
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Du kan spille et spil med tanken om at jeg har glemt en,
08:53
or try and boil it down to just four,
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eller du kan koge det ned til kun fire,
08:56
but you'll lose.
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men du vil tabe.
08:58
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
09:00
Let me very briefly tell you what I mean by this,
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Lad mig kort fortælle hvad jeg mener med dette
09:03
synthesizing the work of many economic historians
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og undervejs sammenfatte arbejdet fra mange
09:06
in the process.
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økonomihistorikere.
09:08
Competition means,
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Konkurrence betyder
09:10
not only were there a hundred different political units in Europe in 1500,
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at ikke bare var der hundreder af forskellige politiske enheder i Europa i 1500,
09:12
but within each of these units,
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men indenfor hver af disse enheder,
09:14
there was competition between corporations as well as sovereigns.
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var der konkurrence mellem virksomheder, såvel som herskere.
09:18
The ancestor of the modern corporation, the City of London Corporation,
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Stamfaderen til moderne selskaber, the City of London Corporation
09:21
existed in the 12th century.
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eksisterede i 12-hundredetallet.
09:23
Nothing like this existed in China,
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Intet tilsvarende eksisterede i Kina,
09:25
where there was one monolithic state
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der var bare en monolitisk stat
09:27
covering a fifth of humanity,
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omfattende en femtedel af menneskeheden,
09:29
and anyone with any ambition
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og enhver med hvilken som helst ambition
09:31
had to pass one standardized examination,
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skulle bestå én standardiseret eksamen,
09:33
which took three days and was very difficult
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som tog tre dage og var meget svær
09:35
and involved memorizing vast numbers of characters
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og bestod af at huske en stort antal skrifttegn
09:38
and very complex Confucian essay writing.
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og skrive afhandlinger om meget indviklet konfuciansk lærdom.
09:42
The scientific revolution was different
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Den videnskabelige revolution var anderledes
09:45
from the science that had been achieved in the Oriental world
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fra den videnskab som blev opnået i den orientalske verden
09:48
in a number of crucial ways,
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på en række afgørende punkter,
09:50
the most important being
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den mest vigtige er
09:52
that, through the experimental method,
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brug af den eksperimentelle metode.
09:54
it gave men control over nature in a way that had not been possible before.
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Den giver mennesker kontrol over naturen på en måde som ikke var mulig før.
09:57
Example: Benjamin Robins's extraordinary application
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Eksempelvis: Benjamin Robins ekstraordinære anvendelse
10:01
of Newtonian physics to ballistics.
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af Newtons fysik indenfor ballistik.
10:04
Once you do that,
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Når du kan gøre dette
10:06
your artillery becomes accurate.
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bliver dit artilleri præcist.
10:09
Think of what that means.
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Tænk på hvad det betyder.
10:11
That really was a killer application.
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Det var virkeligt en Killer applikation.
10:13
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
10:16
Meanwhile, there's no scientific revolution anywhere else.
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Samtidigt var der ingen videnskabelig revolution nogen andre steder.
10:19
The Ottoman Empire's not that far from Europe,
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Det Osmanniske imperium var ikke langt fra Europa,
10:21
but there's no scientific revolution there.
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men der er ingen videnskabelig revolution der.
10:23
In fact, they demolish Taqi al-Din's observatory,
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Faktisk ødelagde de Taqi al-Din's observatorium
10:26
because it's considered blasphemous
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fordi det betragtedes som blasfemisk
10:28
to inquire into the mind of God.
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at undersøge guds skaberværk.
10:31
Property rights: It's not the democracy, folks;
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Ejendomsret: Det er ikke demokrati folkens,
10:34
it's having the rule of law based on private property rights.
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det er at regere på basis af love baseret på privat ejendomsret.
10:37
That's what makes the difference
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Det er hvad der gør forskellen
10:39
between North America and South America.
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mellem Nordamerika og Sydamerika.
10:41
You could turn up in North America
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Du kunne dukke op i Nordamerika
10:43
having signed a deed of indenture
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efter at have underskrevet en kontrakt
10:45
saying, "I'll work for nothing for five years.
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om: "Jeg vil arbejde gratis de næste fem år.
10:47
You just have to feed me."
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For kost og logi."
10:49
But at the end of it, you've got a hundred acres of land.
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Men bagefter havde du hundrede hektar land.
10:52
That's the land grant
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Dette var udlodning af land
10:54
on the bottom half of the slide.
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i bunden af denne slide.
10:56
That's not possible in Latin America
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Dette er ikke muligt i Sydamerika
10:59
where land is held onto
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hvor jorden er ejet
11:01
by a tiny elite descended from the conquistadors.
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af en lille elite der nedstammer fra Conquistadorene.
11:03
And you can see here the huge divergence
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Og I kan her se den store forskel
11:05
that happens in property ownership between North and South.
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som der er på jordejerskab mellem nord og syd.
11:08
Most people in rural North America
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De fleste folk i den landlige Nordamerika
11:10
owned some land by 1900.
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ejede noget jord i 1900.
11:13
Hardly anyone in South America did.
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Stort set ingen i Sydamerika gjorde.
11:15
That's another killer app.
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Her er en anden killer app.
11:18
Modern medicine in the late 19th century
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Moderne medicin i slutningen af 18-hundrede tallet
11:20
began to make major breakthroughs
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fik nogle store gennembrud
11:22
against the infectious diseases that killed a lot of people.
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i kampen mod infektioner som dræbte en masse mennesker.
11:24
And this was another killer app --
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Og dette var en anden killer app --
11:26
the very opposite of a killer,
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faktisk det modsatte af en dræber,
11:28
because it doubled, and then more than doubled, human life expectancy.
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fordi den fordoblede, og derefter mere en fordoblede et menneskes forventede levetid.
11:31
It even did that
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Den gjorde det endda
11:33
in the European empires.
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ude i de europæiske imperier.
11:35
Even in places like Senegal,
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Selv steder som Senegal
11:37
beginning in the early 20th century,
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hvor der i starten af det 20'ende århundrede
11:39
there were major breakthroughs in public health,
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var der store gennembrud i den offentlige sundhed
11:41
and life expectancy began to rise.
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og levetiden begyndte at stige.
11:43
It doesn't rise any faster
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Den begyndte ikke at stige hurtigere
11:45
after these countries become independent.
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efter at disse lande blev selvstændige.
11:47
The empires weren't all bad.
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Imperier var ikke kun af det onde.
11:49
The consumer society is what you need
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Forbrugersamfundet er hvad du behøver
11:51
for the Industrial Revolution to have a point.
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for at den industrielle revolution har et formål.
11:54
You need people to want to wear tons of clothes.
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Du behøver at folk ønsker at bære tonsvis af tøj.
11:56
You've all bought an article of clothing in the last month;
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I har alle købt et stykke tøj indenfor den sidste måned --
11:58
I guarantee it.
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jeg garantere det.
12:00
That's the consumer society,
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Det er forbrugersamfundet
12:02
and it propels economic growth
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og det driver den økonomiske vækst
12:04
more than even technological change itself.
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mere end den teknologiske udvikling gør.
12:07
Japan was the first non-Western society
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Japan var det første ikke vestlige samfund
12:09
to embrace it.
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til at omfavne det.
12:11
The alternative,
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Alternativet,
12:13
which was proposed by Mahatma Gandhi,
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som var foreslået af Mahatma Gandhi,
12:15
was to institutionalize and make poverty permanent.
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var at institutionaliserer fattigdomen og gøre den permanent.
12:18
Very few Indians today
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Meget få indere i dag
12:20
wish that India had gone down
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ønsker at Indien havde fulgt
12:22
Mahatma Gandhi's road.
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Mahatma Gandhis vej.
12:25
Finally, the work ethic.
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Til sidst, arbejdsetik.
12:27
Max Weber thought that was peculiarly Protestant.
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Max Weber troede at det var noget særligt protestantisk.
12:30
He was wrong.
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Han tog fejl.
12:32
Any culture can get the work ethic
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Enhver kultur kan tilegne sig arbejdsetik,
12:34
if the institutions are there
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hvis der er institutioner tilstede
12:36
to create the incentive to work.
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der skaber incitamenter for at arbejde.
12:38
We know this
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Vi ved dette
12:40
because today the work ethic
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fordi at i dag er arbejdsetik
12:42
is no longer a Protestant, Western phenomenon.
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ikke længere et protestantisk, vestligt fænomen.
12:45
In fact, the West has lost its work ethic.
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Faktisk, har Vesten tabt sin arbejdsetik.
12:48
Today, the average Korean
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I dag arbejder den gennemsnitlige koreaner
12:51
works a thousand hours more a year
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tusind timer mere om året
12:55
than the average German --
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end den gennemsnitlige tysker --
12:57
a thousand.
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et tusinde.
12:59
And this is part
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Og dette er en del
13:01
of a really extraordinary phenomenon,
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af et virkeligt ekstraordinært fænomen
13:04
and that is the end of the Great Divergence.
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som er slutningen på Den store adskillelse.
13:07
Who's got the work ethic now?
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Hvem har arbejdsetikken nu?
13:09
Take a look at mathematical attainment
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Kig på disse matematiske færdigheder
13:12
by 15 year-olds.
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hos 15-årige.
13:14
At the top of the international league table
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I toppen af den internationale liga
13:16
according to the latest PISA study,
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ifølge den seneste PISA undersøgelse,
13:19
is the Shanghai district of China.
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er Shanghai distriktet i Kina.
13:21
The gap between Shanghai
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Forskellen mellem Shanghai
13:23
and the United Kingdom and the United States
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Storbritannien og USA
13:26
is as big as the gap between the U.K. and the U.S.
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er lige så stor som forskellen mellem UK og USA
13:29
and Albania and Tunisia.
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og Albanien og Tunesien.
13:32
You probably assume
320
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I forstiller jer nok
13:34
that because the iPhone was designed in California
321
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at fordi IPhone var designet i Californien
13:36
but assembled in China
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men samlet i Kina
13:38
that the West still leads in terms of technological innovation.
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så er Vesten stadig førende indenfor teknologisk innovation.
13:41
You're wrong.
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I tager fejl.
13:43
In terms of patents,
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Målt på antal patenter
13:45
there's no question that the East is ahead.
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er der ingen tvivl om at Østen er foran.
13:47
Not only has Japan been ahead for some time,
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Ikke bare har Japan været foran i noget tid,
13:50
South Korea has gone into third place,
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Sydkorea kommer ind på en tredjeplads
13:53
and China is just about to overtake Germany.
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og Kina er lige ved at overhale Tyskland.
13:56
Why?
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Hvorfor?
13:58
Because the killer apps can be downloaded.
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Fordi Killer apps kan blive downloadet.
14:00
It's open source.
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Det er open source.
14:02
Any society can adopt these institutions,
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Ethvert samfund kan indfører disse institutioner
14:04
and when they do,
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og de vil gøre det,
14:06
they achieve what the West achieved after 1500 --
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de vil opnå det som vesten opnåede efter 1500 --
14:10
only faster.
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bare hurtigere.
14:12
This is the Great Reconvergence,
337
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Det er Den store gensamling,
14:14
and it's the biggest story of your lifetime.
338
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og det er den største fortælling i vores levetid.
14:18
Because it's on your watch that this is happening.
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Fordi det sker for øjnene af jer.
14:21
It's our generation
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Det er vores generation
14:23
that is witnessing the end of Western predominance.
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som er vidner til afslutningen af Vestens dominans.
14:25
The average American used to be more than 20 times richer
342
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Den gennemsnitlige amerikaner plejede at være 20 gange rigere
14:27
than the average Chinese.
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end den gennemsnitlige kineser.
14:29
Now it's just five times,
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Nu er det kun fem gange
14:31
and soon it will be 2.5 times.
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og snart vil det blive 2,5 gange.
14:33
So I want to end with three questions
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Så for at slutte med tre spørgsmål
14:36
for the future billions,
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om de fremtidige milliarder,
14:38
just ahead of 2016,
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umiddelbart efter 2016
14:41
when the United States will lose its place
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når USA har tabt sin plads som
14:43
as number one economy to China.
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økonomisk nummer et til Kina.
14:46
The first is, can you delete these apps,
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Det første er om man kan slette disse apps
14:50
and are we in the process of doing so
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og er vi i gang med at gøre det
14:52
in the Western world?
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i den vestlige verden?
14:54
The second question is,
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Det andet spørgsmål er:
14:56
does the sequencing of the download matter?
355
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Har rækkefølgen af download en betydning?
15:00
And could Africa get that sequencing wrong?
356
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Og har Afrika gjort det i den forkerte rækkefølge?
15:05
One obvious implication of modern economic history
357
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En grundlæggende lære fra moderne økonomisk historie
15:07
is that it's quite hard to transition to democracy
358
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er at det er svært at overgå til demokrati
15:10
before you've established
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før du har etableret
15:12
secure private property rights.
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sikring af den private ejendomsret.
15:15
Warning: that may not work.
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3000
Advarsel: Det vil ikke virke.
15:18
And third, can China do without
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Og for det tredje, kan Kina klare sig
15:20
killer app number three?
363
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uden killer app nummer tre?
15:22
That's the one that John Locke systematized
364
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Det er den som John Locke systematiserede
15:26
when he said that freedom was rooted in private property rights
365
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4000
da han sagde at frihed var grundfæstet i den private ejendomsret
15:30
and the protection of law.
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og retssikkerhed gennem lovgivning.
15:32
That's the basis
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Dette er grundlaget
15:34
for the Western model
368
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for den vestlige model
15:36
of representative government.
369
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3000
for repræsentativ regering.
15:39
Now this picture shows the demolition
370
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2000
Dette fotografi viser nedrivningen af
15:41
of the Chinese artist Ai Weiwei's studio
371
926000
3000
af den kinesiske kunster Ai Weiweis atelier
15:44
in Shanghai earlier this year.
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i Shanghai tidligere på året.
15:46
He's now free again,
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Hen er nu på fri fod igen
15:48
having been detained, as you know, for some time.
374
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efter at være fængslet, som I ved, i et stykke tid.
15:50
But I don't think his studio has been rebuilt.
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Men jeg tror ikke har atelier er blevet genopbygget.
15:55
Winston Churchill once defined civilization
376
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Winston Churchill definerede engang civilisation
15:59
in a lecture he gave in the fateful year of 1938.
377
944000
4000
i et foredrag han holdt i det skæbnesvangre år 1938.
16:03
And I think these words really nail it:
378
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Jeg tror at disse ord sætter det på spidsen:
16:06
"It means a society based upon the opinion of civilians.
379
951000
4000
"Det betyder et samfund baseret på borgernes vilje.
16:10
It means that violence, the rule of warriors and despotic chiefs,
380
955000
3000
Det betyder at vold, regering af krigsherrer og despotiske fyrster,
16:13
the conditions of camps and warfare, of riot and tyranny,
381
958000
3000
tilstanden af lejre og krig, af optøjer og tyranni ,
16:16
give place to parliaments where laws are made,
382
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3000
giver plads til forsamlinger hvor love er lavet,
16:19
and independent courts of justice
383
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uafhængigt retsvæsen
16:21
in which over long periods those laws are maintained.
384
966000
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hvor disse love er opretholdt over længere perioder.
16:24
That is civilization --
385
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Dette er civilisation --
16:26
and in its soil grow continually
386
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i hvis jord gror fremdeles
16:28
freedom, comfort and culture,"
387
973000
3000
frihed, tryghed og kultur."
16:31
what all TEDsters care about most.
388
976000
4000
Det er alt hvad TEDstere bekymrer sig mest om.
16:35
"When civilization reigns in any country,
389
980000
3000
"Når civilisation regerer i alle lande,
16:38
a wider and less harassed life
390
983000
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vil et rigere og mindre farligt liv
16:41
is afforded to the masses of the people."
391
986000
3000
være muligt for de brede masser af folk."
16:44
That's so true.
392
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Det er så rigtigt.
16:48
I don't think the decline of Western civilization
393
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Jeg tror ikke af nedgangen i vestlig civilisation
16:51
is inevitable,
394
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er uafvendelig,
16:53
because I don't think history operates
395
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3000
fordi jeg tror ikke at historien fungere
16:56
in this kind of life-cycle model,
396
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2000
efter en slags livscyklus model,
16:58
beautifully illustrated by Thomas Cole's
397
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2000
smukt illustreret af Thomas Cole i
17:00
"Course of Empire" paintings.
398
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3000
malerierne "Imperiernes gang".
17:03
That's not the way history works.
399
1008000
3000
Det er ikke måden hvorpå historien arbejder.
17:06
That's not the way the West rose,
400
1011000
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Det er ikke måden hvorpå Vesten steg
17:08
and I don't think it's the way the West will fall.
401
1013000
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og jeg tror ikke det er måden Vesten vil falde.
17:11
The West may collapse very suddenly.
402
1016000
3000
Vesten kan kollapse meget hurtigt.
17:14
Complex civilizations do that,
403
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3000
Komplekse civilisationer gør det
17:17
because they operate, most of the time,
404
1022000
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fordi de fungere, for det meste af tiden,
17:19
on the edge of chaos.
405
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2000
på kanten af kaos.
17:21
That's one of the most profound insights
406
1026000
3000
Det er en af de dybere indsigter
17:24
to come out of the historical study of complex institutions
407
1029000
3000
som er kommet frem af historiske studier af komplekse institutioner
17:27
like civilizations.
408
1032000
3000
så som civilisationer.
17:30
No, we may hang on,
409
1035000
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Nej vi vil hænge på
17:32
despite the huge burdens of debt that we've accumulated,
410
1037000
4000
på trods af den kæmpe byrde af gæld vi har optaget,
17:36
despite the evidence that we've lost our work ethic
411
1041000
3000
på trods af at vi har tabt vores arbejdsetik
17:39
and other parts of our historical mojo.
412
1044000
3000
og andre dele af vores historiske arv.
17:42
But one thing is for sure,
413
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Men en ting er sikkert
17:44
the Great Divergence
414
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Den store adskillelse
17:46
is over, folks.
415
1051000
2000
er forbi, venner.
17:48
Thanks very much.
416
1053000
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Mange tak.
17:50
(Applause)
417
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(Bifald)
18:15
Bruno Giussani: Niall,
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Bruno Giussane: Niall,
18:17
I am just curious
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Jeg er nysgerrig
18:19
about your take on the other region of the world that's booming,
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efter at tage dig til en anden region i verden som boomer,
18:22
which is Latin America.
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nemlig Latinamerika.
18:25
What's your view on that?
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Hvad er dit syn på det?
18:28
Niall Ferguson: Well I really am not just talking
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Niall Ferguson: Jeg taler ikke kun
18:30
about the rise of the East;
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om at Østens rejser sig,
18:32
I'm talking about the rise of the Rest,
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jeg taler om at Resten rejser sig,
18:34
and that includes South America.
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herunder Sydamerika.
18:36
I once asked one of my colleagues at Harvard,
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Jeg spurgte en gang en af mine kollegaer på Harvard:
18:38
"Hey, is South America part of the West?"
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"Hej, er Sydamerika en del af Vesten?"
18:40
He was an expert in Latin American history.
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Han var ekspert i latinamerikansk historie.
18:42
He said, "I don't know; I'll have to think about that."
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Han svarede:"Jeg ved det ikke, jeg bliver nødt til at tænke over det."
18:44
That tells you something really important.
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Dette fortæller os noget meget vigtigt.
18:46
I think if you look at what is happening in Brazil in particular,
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Jeg tror at hvis du kigger på hvad der sker ikke bare i Brasilien,
18:48
but also Chile,
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men også i Chile,
18:50
which was in many ways the one that led the way
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som på mange måder var landet som startede
18:53
in transforming the institutions of economic life,
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med at forandre sine økonomiske institutioner,
18:56
there's a very bright future indeed.
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er der bestemt en stor fremtid.
18:59
So my story really is
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Så min historie er
19:01
as much about that convergence in the Americas
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ligeså meget om konvergens i de to Amerika'er
19:04
as it's a convergence story in Eurasia.
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som det er en historie om konvergens i Euroasien.
19:06
BG: And there is this impression
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BG: Der er den forestilling om
19:08
that North America and Europe
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at Nordamerika og Europa
19:10
are not really paying attention
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ikke rigtigt er opmærksom på
19:12
to these trends.
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disse trends.
19:14
Mostly they're worried about each other.
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For det meste er de bekymrede om om hinanden.
19:17
The Americans think that the European model is going to crumble tomorrow.
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Amerikanerne tror af den europæiske model vil brase sammen i morgen.
19:20
The Europeans think that the American budget is going to explode tomorrow.
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Europæerne tror at det amerikanske budget vil eksplodere i morgen.
19:23
And that's all we seem to be caring about recently.
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Og det er alt hvad vi har beskæftiget os med på det seneste.
19:26
NF: I think the fiscal crisis
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NF: Jeg tror at finanskrisen
19:28
that we see in the developed World right now -- both sides of the Atlantic --
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som vi ser i den udviklede verden lige nu -- på begge sider af Atlanten --
19:31
is essentially the same thing
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grundlæggende er den samme ting
19:33
taking different forms
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som har forskellige former
19:35
in terms of political culture.
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afhængigt af den politiske kultur.
19:37
And it's a crisis that has its structural facet --
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Og at krisen har strukturelle facetter --
19:41
it's partly to do with demographics.
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Det handler delvist om demografi.
19:43
But it's also, of course, to do with the massive crisis
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Men det har selvfølgeligt også at gøre med den massive krise
19:46
that followed excessive leverage,
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som fulgte efter overdrevne spekulation
19:48
excessive borrowing in the private sector.
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og overdrevne låntagning i den private sektor.
19:50
That crisis,
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Denne krise
19:52
which has been the focus of so much attention, including by me,
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som har fået megen opmærksomhed, også af mig,
19:55
I think is an epiphenomenon.
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tror jeg er et overfladefænomen.
19:57
The financial crisis is really a relatively small historic phenomenon,
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Den finansielle krise er i virkeligheden et forholdsvist lille historisk fænomen,
20:00
which has just accelerated
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som bare har accelereret
20:02
this huge shift,
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det kæmpe skift
20:04
which ends half a millennium of Western ascendancy.
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som afslutter det halve årtusinde med vestlig opstigning.
20:06
I think that's its real importance.
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Det er det som har betydning.
20:08
BG: Niall, thank you. (NF: Thank you very much, Bruno.)
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BG: Niall, mange tak (NF: Selvtak Bruno)
20:10
(Applause)
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(Bifald)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Niall Ferguson - HistorianHistory is a curious thing, and Niall Ferguson investigates not only what happened but why. (Hint: Politics and money explain a lot.)
Why you should listen
Niall Ferguson teaches history and business administration at Harvard and is a senior research fellow at several other universities, including Oxford. His books chronicle a wide range of political and socio-economic events; he has written about everything from German politics during the era of inflation to a financial history of the world. He’s now working on a biography of former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.
Ferguson is a prolific and often controversial commentator on contemporary politics and economics. He frequently writes, reviews, and hosts for the British and American press. His latest book and TV series, Civilization: The West and the Rest, aims to help 21st-century audiences understand the past and the present. In it, he asks how, since the 1500s, Western nations have surpassed their Eastern counterparts and came to dominate the world (his answer: thanks to six “killer apps”: science, medicine, protestant work ethic, competition, property rights, consumer society). And he wonders whether that domination is now threatened by the rise of Asia. His theories have drawn criticism and prompted discussions, which he says was his intent. “It’s designed to be slightly annoying, so that you talk about it,” he told The Observer.
He says: "If a majority of people subscribe to a particular view, it pays to question it. It pays to think: maybe this is wrong."
Niall Ferguson | Speaker | TED.com