TEDGlobal 2011
Niall Ferguson: The 6 killer apps of prosperity
Niall Ferguson：邁向繁榮的六大「殺手級」應用程式
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過去幾個世紀以來，西方文化善於為自己的族群建立榮景。歷史學家Niall Ferguson問：「為什麼是西方國家多，而其他國家比較少?」他提出六個從西方文化而來的大概念，稱這些想法為六大「殺手級」應用程式，這些能促進財富安定及創新。在這個新世紀，他說，這些都是可以分享的。
Niall Ferguson - Historian
History is a curious thing, and Niall Ferguson investigates not only what happened but why. (Hint: Politics and money explain a lot.) Full bio
History is a curious thing, and Niall Ferguson investigates not only what happened but why. (Hint: Politics and money explain a lot.) Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Let's talk about billions.
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我們來談談「億」吧
00:18
Let's talk about
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我們來談談
00:21
past and future billions.
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過去和未來的「億」
00:24
We know
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眾所皆知
00:26
that about 106 billion people
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在地球上生活過的人
00:29
have ever lived.
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有一千零六十億
00:31
And we know that most of them are dead.
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當然大多數人已經不在人世了
00:34
And we also know
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我們還知道
00:36
that most of them live or lived in Asia.
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他們大多數人生活在或曾經生活在亞洲
00:38
And we also know
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我們還知道
00:40
that most of them were or are very poor --
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他們大多數人非常貧窮
00:44
did not live for very long.
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壽命不長
00:47
Let's talk about billions.
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我們來談談「億」
00:50
Let's talk about
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我們來談談
00:52
the 195,000 billion dollars of wealth
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現今世界
00:56
in the world today.
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高達195萬億美金的財富
00:59
We know that most of that wealth
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這些財富大部分
01:02
was made after the year 1800.
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是從1800年開始創造出來的
01:05
And we know that most of it
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而現在這些財富的
01:08
is currently owned
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主要擁有者
01:10
by people we might call Westerners:
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都是西方人
01:14
Europeans, North Americans, Australasians.
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歐洲人、北美人和澳洲人
01:18
19 percent of the world's population today,
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只佔了世界人口百分之十九的西方人
01:21
Westerners own two-thirds of its wealth.
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卻擁有了全球三分之二的財富
01:25
Economic historians
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經濟歷史學家
01:27
call this "The Great Divergence."
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稱之為「大分流」
01:30
And this slide here
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這張投影片
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is the best simplification
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最能讓我
01:34
of the Great Divergence story
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簡單說明
01:36
I can offer you.
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「大分流」的故事
01:38
It's basically two ratios
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上面是兩個
01:40
of per capita GDP,
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平均每人的GDP比率
01:42
per capita gross domestic product,
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也就是每人平均國內生產總值
01:45
so average income.
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平均收入
01:47
One, the red line,
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紅線的部分
01:49
is the ratio of British to Indian
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是代表英國人和印度人
01:51
per capita income.
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每人平均收入的比
01:53
And the blue line
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藍線則是
01:55
is the ratio of American to Chinese.
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美國人和中國人的平均收入比
01:58
And this chart goes back to 1500.
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這幅圖追溯到1500年
02:00
And you can see here
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大家可以看到
02:02
that there's an exponential Great Divergence.
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大分流的走勢
02:05
They start off pretty close together.
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這兩條曲線起初相當接近
02:07
In fact, in 1500,
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事實上在1500年
02:09
the average Chinese was richer than the average North American.
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中國人普遍比美國人富有
02:13
When you get to the 1970s,
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但到了1970年代
02:16
which is where this chart ends,
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也就是這幅圖中時間的終點
02:18
the average Briton is more than 10 times richer
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英國人平均比印度人
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than the average Indian.
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富有十倍
02:22
And that's allowing
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這就產生了
02:24
for differences in the cost of living.
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生活消費的差異
02:26
It's based on purchasing power parity.
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這是建立在購買力對等基礎上
02:29
The average American
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到了1970年代
02:31
is nearly 20 times richer
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美國人平均
02:33
than the average Chinese
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比中國人
02:35
by the 1970s.
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富有二十倍
02:37
So why?
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這是為什麼
02:40
This wasn't just an economic story.
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這並不僅僅只是一個經濟問題
02:43
If you take the 10 countries
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看看這十個
02:45
that went on to become
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後來成為
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the Western empires,
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帝國的西方國家
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in 1500 they were really quite tiny --
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在1500年時，這些國家都很小
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five percent of the world's land surface,
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僅占全球土地面積的百分之五
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16 percent of its population,
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人口僅佔世界人口的百分之十六
02:57
maybe 20 percent of its income.
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而收入在全球僅占百分之二十
03:00
By 1913,
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到了1913年
03:02
these 10 countries, plus the United States,
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包括美國在內的這十個國家
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controlled vast global empires --
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控制了全球大片土地
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58 percent of the world's territory,
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佔據了全球百分之五十八的勢力範圍
03:10
about the same percentage of its population,
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而人口也佔了世界人口的百分之五十八左右
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and a really huge, nearly three-quarters share
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創造了全球
03:16
of global economic output.
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近四分之三的財富
03:18
And notice, most of that went to the motherland,
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請注意，大部分的財富都流入了這些國家
03:22
to the imperial metropoles,
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流入了帝國大都市裡
03:24
not to their colonial possessions.
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而不是殖民地
03:28
Now you can't just blame this on imperialism --
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我們不能只是怪罪帝國主義
03:30
though many people have tried to do so --
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儘管很多人這麼做
03:33
for two reasons.
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有兩項原因
03:36
One, empire was the least original thing
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第一、1500年以後
03:39
that the West did after 1500.
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西方國家都是帝國
03:42
Everybody did empire.
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大家都建立帝國
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They beat preexisting Oriental empires
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之前建立的東方帝國被打敗了
03:48
like the Mughals and the Ottomans.
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例如莫臥兒帝國和奧斯曼帝國
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So it really doesn't look like empire is a great explanation
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所以帝國並不見得
03:53
for the Great Divergence.
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足以解釋大分流的現象
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In any case, as you may remember,
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不知道各位是否記得
03:57
the Great Divergence reaches its zenith in the 1970s,
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到了1970年代
04:00
some considerable time after decolonization.
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大分流在非殖民時期後一段相當長的時間達到高峰
04:04
This is not a new question.
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這不是一個新問題了
04:06
Samuel Johnson,
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著名辭典編篡家
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the great lexicographer,
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Samuel Johnson
04:10
[posed] it through his character Rasselas
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透過他1759年所寫的小說
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in his novel "Rasselas, Prince of Abissinia,"
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《阿比西尼亞國拉塞拉斯王子傳》中的人物拉塞拉斯
04:16
published in 1759.
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提出了這個問題
04:19
"By what means are the Europeans thus powerful;
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「歐洲人為何如此強大？
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or why, since they can so easily visit Asia and Africa
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他們為何能輕而易舉地來到亞洲和非洲
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for trade or conquest,
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進行貿易或征服
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cannot the Asiaticks and Africans
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而亞洲人和非洲人
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invade their coasts,
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為何無力攻占他們的海岸
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plant colonies in their ports,
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將他們的港口化為殖民地
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and give laws to their natural princes?
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並控制他們的王子呢？
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The same wind that carries them back
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既然是同一股風，為何他只將他們送回家
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would bring us thither?"
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卻將我們送去他們那裡？」
04:42
That's a great question.
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這個問題問得很好
04:44
And you know what,
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無獨有偶
04:46
it was also being asked at roughly the same time
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幾乎在同一時期
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by the Resterners -- by the people in the rest of the world --
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西方國家之外的人
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like Ibrahim Muteferrika,
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其中有
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an Ottoman official,
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一位奧斯曼帝國的大官
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the man who introduced printing, very belatedly,
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也是後來將印刷術
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to the Ottoman Empire --
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引入奧斯曼帝國的人
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who said in a book published in 1731,
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在他1731年出版的一本書裡
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"Why do Christian nations which were so weak in the past
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他說：「與穆斯林國家相比，
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compared with Muslim nations
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基督教國家原先顯得弱不禁風，
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begin to dominate so many lands in modern times
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但他們何以在現代統治了大片土地，
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and even defeat the once victorious Ottoman armies?"
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甚至戰勝了曾經盛極一時的奧斯曼帝國？」
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Unlike Rasselas,
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和拉塞拉斯不同
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Muteferrika had an answer to that question,
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Muteferrika對問題做了回答
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which was correct.
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答案還是正確的
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He said it was "because they have laws and rules
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他說；「因為他們制定了
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invented by reason."
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合理的法律規章。」
05:31
It's not geography.
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這和地理環境無關
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You may think we can explain the Great Divergence
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各位可能認為我們能從地理的角度
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in terms of geography.
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解釋大分流
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We know that's wrong,
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這個想法是錯誤的
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because we conducted two great natural experiments in the 20th century
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我們在二十世紀進行了兩次自然實驗
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to see if geography mattered more than institutions.
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來證明地理和制度就近哪個作用較大
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We took all the Germans,
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我們把德國
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we divided them roughly in two,
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分成了兩部份
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and we gave the ones in the East communism,
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在東德推行共產主義
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and you see the result.
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結果大家都看到了
05:55
Within an incredibly short period of time,
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在極短的時間裡
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people living in the German Democratic Republic
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東德人
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produced Trabants, the Trabbi,
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生產了特拉邦(Trabant)汽車
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one of the world's worst ever cars,
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是世界上性能最差的車款之一
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while people in the West produced the Mercedes Benz.
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而西德人卻生產出了朋馳
06:08
If you still don't believe me,
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這如果還不足以回答問題
06:10
we conducted the experiment also in the Korean Peninsula.
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我們又在朝鮮半島進行了實驗
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And we decided we'd take Koreans
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我們決定
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in roughly the same geographical place
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將生活在同一地理位置
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with, notice, the same basic traditional culture,
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擁有共同文化習俗的朝鮮人
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and we divided them in two, and we gave the Northerners communism.
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分成兩邊，並在北朝鮮實行共產主義
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And the result is an even bigger divergence
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結果朝鮮半島兩方
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in a very short space of time
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在更短的時間內
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than happened in Germany.
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出現了大分流，比德國的情況更甚
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Not a big divergence in terms of uniform design for border guards admittedly,
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我承認，他們邊防軍制服的款式差別不大
06:34
but in almost every other respect,
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但在其他方面
06:36
it's a huge divergence.
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雙方存在極大的差異
06:38
Which leads me to think
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這讓我不得不認為
06:40
that neither geography nor national character,
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地理、國家特徵
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popular explanations for this kind of thing,
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以及其他主流的解釋
06:44
are really significant.
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都站不住腳
06:47
It's the ideas.
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真正發揮作用的是思想
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It's the institutions.
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是制度
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This must be true
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這應該是千真萬確的
06:53
because a Scotsman said it.
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這可是一位蘇格蘭人說的
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And I think I'm the only Scotsman here at the Edinburgh TED.
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我想我是這裡唯一的蘇格蘭人
06:58
So let me just explain to you
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我來解釋一下
07:00
that the smartest man ever was a Scotsman.
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世界上最聰明的人是一位蘇格蘭人
07:03
He was Adam Smith --
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他就是亞當‧斯密
07:05
not Billy Connolly, not Sean Connery --
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不是比利‧康諾利或是史恩‧康納萊
07:08
though he is very smart indeed.
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雖然他也很聰明
07:11
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
07:14
Smith -- and I want you to go
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亞當‧斯密，你們都應該
07:16
and bow down before his statue in the Royal Mile;
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到他在皇家麥爾大道的雕像前一鞠躬
07:19
it's a wonderful statue --
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這座雕像非常雄偉
07:21
Smith, in the "Wealth of Nations"
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亞當‧斯密在1776年發表了
07:23
published in 1776 --
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《國富論》
07:25
that's the most important thing that happened that year ...
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這可是當年最了不起的事情
07:28
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
07:31
You bet.
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難道不是嗎？
07:34
There was a little local difficulty in some of our minor colonies, but ...
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雖然當時我們一些次要的殖民地出了點問題，但...
07:37
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
07:39
"China seems to have been long stationary,
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他說：「中國似乎已經停滯很久了，
07:41
and probably long ago acquired that full complement of riches
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也許在很久以前，中國創造財富的能力已經發揮到了極致，
07:44
which is consistent with the nature of its laws and institutions.
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而這取決於該國法律和制度的性質。
07:48
But this complement may be much inferior
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但如果中國採用其他型式的法律和制度
07:50
to what, with other laws and institutions,
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那麼這一能力
07:53
the nature of its soil, climate, and situation
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反而無法在同樣的土壤，氣候和條件下
07:55
might admit of."
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得到完全發揮。」
07:57
That is so right and so cool.
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這說得非常有道理
07:59
And he said it such a long time ago.
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在那麼久以前，他就說出了這番話
08:02
But you know, this is a TED audience,
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但是，各位是TED的觀眾
08:05
and if I keep talking about institutions,
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如果我繼續談論制度
08:07
you're going to turn off.
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你們可能就聽不下去了
08:09
So I'm going to translate this into language that you can understand.
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所以我得用通俗的白話告訴各位
08:13
Let's call them the killer apps.
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我們就把這些制度稱做「殺手級」應用程式吧
08:17
I want to explain to you that there were six killer apps
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我會逐一介紹六種「殺手級」應用程式
08:20
that set the West apart from the rest.
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解釋他們如何讓西方國家脫穎而出
08:23
And they're kind of like the apps on your phone,
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它們就像你手機上的應用程式
08:25
in the sense that they look quite simple.
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因為它們都很容易上手
08:27
They're just icons; you click on them.
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它們就像一個個圖標，手指一點就行了
08:29
But behind the icon, there's complex code.
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然而在圖標背後，則是複雜的程序
08:32
It's the same with institutions.
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制度也是如此
08:34
There are six
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我認為，這六個「殺手級」應用程式
08:36
which I think explain the Great Divergence.
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能夠解釋大分流形成的原因
08:39
One, competition.
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第一：競爭
08:41
Two, the scientific revolution.
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第二：科技革命
08:43
Three, property rights.
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第三：產權
08:45
Four, modern medicine.
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第四：現代醫藥
08:47
Five, the consumer society.
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第五：消費者導向社會
08:49
And six, the work ethic.
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第六：職業道德
08:51
You can play a game and try and think of one I've missed at,
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各位可以玩這個遊戲，看看我有沒有遺漏什麼
08:53
or try and boil it down to just four,
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或者試試看能否直接刪除其中兩個
08:56
but you'll lose.
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但是你輸定了
08:58
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
09:00
Let me very briefly tell you what I mean by this,
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透過綜合經濟歷史學家的觀點
09:03
synthesizing the work of many economic historians
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我來簡短解釋一下
09:06
in the process.
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我的意思是
09:08
Competition means,
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競爭代表
09:10
not only were there a hundred different political units in Europe in 1500,
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1500年時歐洲不僅擁有一百多個政治單位
09:12
but within each of these units,
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而在這些單位中
09:14
there was competition between corporations as well as sovereigns.
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既有組織間的競爭，又有主權國家之間的競爭
09:18
The ancestor of the modern corporation, the City of London Corporation,
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現代機構的始祖，倫敦市法團
09:21
existed in the 12th century.
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12世紀時便存在了
09:23
Nothing like this existed in China,
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中國沒有這樣的制度
09:25
where there was one monolithic state
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中國的人口占世界總人口的五分之一
09:27
covering a fifth of humanity,
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國家實施中央集權制度
09:29
and anyone with any ambition
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胸懷大志的人
09:31
had to pass one standardized examination,
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必須通過統一的科舉考試
09:33
which took three days and was very difficult
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一考就是三天，考試難度很大
09:35
and involved memorizing vast numbers of characters
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要求記憶大量漢字
09:38
and very complex Confucian essay writing.
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還要寫繁複的儒家文章
09:42
The scientific revolution was different
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科技革命和東方的科學成就
09:45
from the science that had been achieved in the Oriental world
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在很多重要方面
09:48
in a number of crucial ways,
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都有不同
09:50
the most important being
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其中最大的不同在於
09:52
that, through the experimental method,
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科技革命通過實驗性方法
09:54
it gave men control over nature in a way that had not been possible before.
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讓人們用前所未見的方式掌控自然
09:57
Example: Benjamin Robins's extraordinary application
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Benjamin Robins將牛頓物理學運用到彈道研究
10:01
of Newtonian physics to ballistics.
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就是個很好的例子
10:04
Once you do that,
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這麼做
10:06
your artillery becomes accurate.
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能夠保證砲彈發射的精準度
10:09
Think of what that means.
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這意味著
10:11
That really was a killer application.
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這個應用程式果然厲害
10:13
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
10:16
Meanwhile, there's no scientific revolution anywhere else.
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同時科技革命只發生在西方
10:19
The Ottoman Empire's not that far from Europe,
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奧斯曼帝過離歐洲不遠
10:21
but there's no scientific revolution there.
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但沒有發生科技革命
10:23
In fact, they demolish Taqi al-Din's observatory,
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事實上，該國政府拆毀了科學家Taqi al-Din的天文觀測台
10:26
because it's considered blasphemous
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認為該觀測台窺視上帝
10:28
to inquire into the mind of God.
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褻瀆聖靈
10:31
Property rights: It's not the democracy, folks;
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各位，產權不是民主
10:34
it's having the rule of law based on private property rights.
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透過法律管理私有財產權
10:37
That's what makes the difference
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北美洲和南美洲
10:39
between North America and South America.
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為何如此不同
10:41
You could turn up in North America
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你到北美洲去
10:43
having signed a deed of indenture
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簽一項契約
10:45
saying, "I'll work for nothing for five years.
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說：「我願意無償工作五年。
10:47
You just have to feed me."
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你只要讓我有飯吃就行。」
10:49
But at the end of it, you've got a hundred acres of land.
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而五年後，你得到了一百公頃的土地
10:52
That's the land grant
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這張幻燈片下面的就是
10:54
on the bottom half of the slide.
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土地贈與書
10:56
That's not possible in Latin America
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但在拉丁美洲，這是不可能的
10:59
where land is held onto
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這裡的土地
11:01
by a tiny elite descended from the conquistadors.
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都掌握在極少數西班牙征服者的後裔手上
11:03
And you can see here the huge divergence
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你們看，南北美洲
11:05
that happens in property ownership between North and South.
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由於產權不同而出現了大分流
11:08
Most people in rural North America
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到1900年為止
11:10
owned some land by 1900.
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北美洲的大部份人都擁有了土地
11:13
Hardly anyone in South America did.
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而在南美洲，擁有土地的人寥寥無幾
11:15
That's another killer app.
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這是另一個「殺手級」應用程式
11:18
Modern medicine in the late 19th century
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十九世紀末，現代醫藥
11:20
began to make major breakthroughs
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在治療致命傳染病方面
11:22
against the infectious diseases that killed a lot of people.
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有了重大的突破
11:24
And this was another killer app --
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這也是一個「殺手級」應用程式
11:26
the very opposite of a killer,
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但這個程式並不致命
11:28
because it doubled, and then more than doubled, human life expectancy.
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反而將人類的壽命延長了一倍又一倍
11:31
It even did that
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現代醫藥
11:33
in the European empires.
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在歐洲帝國的殖民地上，也發揮了作用
11:35
Even in places like Senegal,
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即使是在塞內加爾
11:37
beginning in the early 20th century,
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公共衛生也在二十世紀早期
11:39
there were major breakthroughs in public health,
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得到重大突破
11:41
and life expectancy began to rise.
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延長了人類的壽命
11:43
It doesn't rise any faster
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而這些國家獨立之後
11:45
after these countries become independent.
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人們的壽命並沒有繼續增加
11:47
The empires weren't all bad.
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所以說帝國也不見得都是不好的
11:49
The consumer society is what you need
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工業革命在一個消費者導向社會進行
11:51
for the Industrial Revolution to have a point.
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才有實際意義
11:54
You need people to want to wear tons of clothes.
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你需要大量需要購買衣服的人
11:56
You've all bought an article of clothing in the last month;
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你們上個月肯定都買過衣服
11:58
I guarantee it.
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我敢保證
12:00
That's the consumer society,
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正是消費者導向社會
12:02
and it propels economic growth
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推動了經濟成長
12:04
more than even technological change itself.
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這股力量超過了技術革新本身
12:07
Japan was the first non-Western society
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日本是第一個非西方國家
12:09
to embrace it.
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以消費為導向的社會
12:11
The alternative,
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而另一條路
12:13
which was proposed by Mahatma Gandhi,
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就是穆罕默德‧甘地提出的
12:15
was to institutionalize and make poverty permanent.
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將貧困制度化，永久化
12:18
Very few Indians today
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今天的印度
12:20
wish that India had gone down
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大家都慶幸
12:22
Mahatma Gandhi's road.
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他們沒有選擇甘地的這條路
12:25
Finally, the work ethic.
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最後職業道德
12:27
Max Weber thought that was peculiarly Protestant.
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馬克斯‧韋伯認為這完全是新教的作風
12:30
He was wrong.
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他錯了
12:32
Any culture can get the work ethic
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只要有創造
12:34
if the institutions are there
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勞動激勵機制的制度
12:36
to create the incentive to work.
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任何文化都有自身的職業道德
12:38
We know this
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我們都清楚
12:40
because today the work ethic
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今天的職業道德
12:42
is no longer a Protestant, Western phenomenon.
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不再是新教或西方社會的專利
12:45
In fact, the West has lost its work ethic.
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事實上西方的職業道德已經淪喪
12:48
Today, the average Korean
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今天一位韓國人
12:51
works a thousand hours more a year
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每年平均比一個德國人
12:55
than the average German --
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多工作一千個小時
12:57
a thousand.
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一千個小時阿
12:59
And this is part
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這一方面
13:01
of a really extraordinary phenomenon,
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反應了一個驚人的現象
13:04
and that is the end of the Great Divergence.
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那就是大分流的終結
13:07
Who's got the work ethic now?
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現在誰擁有職業道德
13:09
Take a look at mathematical attainment
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我們看看十五歲的學生的
13:12
by 15 year-olds.
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數學成績
13:14
At the top of the international league table
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根據國際學生評估項目(PISA)的最近調查
13:16
according to the latest PISA study,
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中國上海的學生
13:19
is the Shanghai district of China.
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成績高居榜首
13:21
The gap between Shanghai
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英國和美國
13:23
and the United Kingdom and the United States
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與上海之間的差距
13:26
is as big as the gap between the U.K. and the U.S.
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等同於阿爾巴尼亞和突尼西亞
13:29
and Albania and Tunisia.
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和英美兩國的差距
13:32
You probably assume
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你們可能認為
13:34
that because the iPhone was designed in California
321
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iPhone手機是在加州設計
13:36
but assembled in China
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而在中國配裝
13:38
that the West still leads in terms of technological innovation.
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所以西方在技術創新上還是處於領先地位
13:41
You're wrong.
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大錯特錯
13:43
In terms of patents,
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在專利方面
13:45
there's no question that the East is ahead.
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東方毫無疑問是處於領先的
13:47
Not only has Japan been ahead for some time,
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不僅日本處於領先有一段時間
13:50
South Korea has gone into third place,
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韓國已衝到了第三位
13:53
and China is just about to overtake Germany.
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而中國眼看就要超越德國
13:56
Why?
330
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怎麼會這樣
13:58
Because the killer apps can be downloaded.
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這是因為人人都能下載「殺手級」應用程式
14:00
It's open source.
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是共享資源
14:02
Any society can adopt these institutions,
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各個社會都能採用這些制度
14:04
and when they do,
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一旦他們這麼做了
14:06
they achieve what the West achieved after 1500 --
335
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他們就能實現西方1500年之後的成就
14:10
only faster.
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但他們的速度更快
14:12
This is the Great Reconvergence,
337
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這是新一輪的大分流
14:14
and it's the biggest story of your lifetime.
338
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是你一生中最重大的事件
14:18
Because it's on your watch that this is happening.
339
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因為你正親眼目睹這些正在發生的事
14:21
It's our generation
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我們這一代人
14:23
that is witnessing the end of Western predominance.
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眼看著西方主導地位的終結
14:25
The average American used to be more than 20 times richer
342
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美國人曾經比中國人
14:27
than the average Chinese.
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平均要富有二十倍
14:29
Now it's just five times,
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而今降至五倍
14:31
and soon it will be 2.5 times.
345
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很快又會降到2.5倍
14:33
So I want to end with three questions
346
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我想透過三個問題
14:36
for the future billions,
347
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來總結
14:38
just ahead of 2016,
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在2016年，中國取代美國
14:41
when the United States will lose its place
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成為世界頭號經濟強國之前
14:43
as number one economy to China.
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這三個問題與未來發展有關
14:46
The first is, can you delete these apps,
351
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第一，西方國家是否
14:50
and are we in the process of doing so
352
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真的能刪除這些應用程式
14:52
in the Western world?
353
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是否正在這麼做
14:54
The second question is,
354
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第二個問題
14:56
does the sequencing of the download matter?
355
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這些應用程式需要注重下載順序嗎
15:00
And could Africa get that sequencing wrong?
356
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非洲是否在下載順序上出錯了
15:05
One obvious implication of modern economic history
357
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我們從近代經濟歷史中學到
15:07
is that it's quite hard to transition to democracy
358
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如果不先建立有保障的私有產權
15:10
before you've established
359
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那麼就很難
15:12
secure private property rights.
360
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建立民主制度
15:15
Warning: that may not work.
361
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警告，這可能行不通
15:18
And third, can China do without
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第三，若不採用第三種應用程式
15:20
killer app number three?
363
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中國是否能成功
15:22
That's the one that John Locke systematized
364
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當John Locke說，自由根植於私有產權
15:26
when he said that freedom was rooted in private property rights
365
911000
4000
和私有產權保護法中
15:30
and the protection of law.
366
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2000
他就是在強調這一點
15:32
That's the basis
367
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這就是由
15:34
for the Western model
368
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代議制組成政府的西方模式的
15:36
of representative government.
369
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3000
基礎所在
15:39
Now this picture shows the demolition
370
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2000
這張照片顯示了
15:41
of the Chinese artist Ai Weiwei's studio
371
926000
3000
中國藝術家艾未未在上海的工作室
15:44
in Shanghai earlier this year.
372
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今年早些時候被拆除的畫面
15:46
He's now free again,
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經過一段時間的關押
15:48
having been detained, as you know, for some time.
374
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他現在已經重獲自由
15:50
But I don't think his studio has been rebuilt.
375
935000
3000
但是他的工作室應該沒有得到重建
15:55
Winston Churchill once defined civilization
376
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4000
邱吉爾在1938年的一次演說中
15:59
in a lecture he gave in the fateful year of 1938.
377
944000
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曾對文明做出了定義
16:03
And I think these words really nail it:
378
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3000
我認為這句話一針見血
16:06
"It means a society based upon the opinion of civilians.
379
951000
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「文明意味著社會以民眾的意見為基石。
16:10
It means that violence, the rule of warriors and despotic chiefs,
380
955000
3000
意味著暴力，暴君統治
16:13
the conditions of camps and warfare, of riot and tyranny,
381
958000
3000
集中營，戰爭，暴亂，獨裁
16:16
give place to parliaments where laws are made,
382
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3000
通通讓位於制定法律的議會
16:19
and independent courts of justice
383
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和長期保證法律得到執行的
16:21
in which over long periods those laws are maintained.
384
966000
3000
獨立司法機關
16:24
That is civilization --
385
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2000
這就是文明--
16:26
and in its soil grow continually
386
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2000
在文明的土壤中
16:28
freedom, comfort and culture,"
387
973000
3000
自由，祥和，文化都能成長茁壯。」
16:31
what all TEDsters care about most.
388
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這是所有TED迷最關心的
16:35
"When civilization reigns in any country,
389
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3000
「當文明進駐一個國家
16:38
a wider and less harassed life
390
983000
3000
人民的素養也會提升
16:41
is afforded to the masses of the people."
391
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人民擁有更為自由，舒適的生活。」
16:44
That's so true.
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這一點不假
16:48
I don't think the decline of Western civilization
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我認為西方文明的衰弱
16:51
is inevitable,
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是不可避免的
16:53
because I don't think history operates
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因為我認為歷史並不是
16:56
in this kind of life-cycle model,
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以生命循環的方式發展
16:58
beautifully illustrated by Thomas Cole's
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並不像 Thomas Cole的系列畫作
17:00
"Course of Empire" paintings.
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《帝國的興衰》所描繪的那般綺麗
17:03
That's not the way history works.
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歷史不是這樣運作的
17:06
That's not the way the West rose,
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西方世界的崛起和衰弱
17:08
and I don't think it's the way the West will fall.
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都不是這樣發生的
17:11
The West may collapse very suddenly.
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西方世界可能轉眼間就崩塌了
17:14
Complex civilizations do that,
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複雜的文明往往都是這樣
17:17
because they operate, most of the time,
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這是因為大多數情況下
17:19
on the edge of chaos.
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這些國家都處於崩潰的邊緣
17:21
That's one of the most profound insights
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這是我們在對文明
17:24
to come out of the historical study of complex institutions
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這樣複雜制度的歷史研究中
17:27
like civilizations.
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最大的領悟
17:30
No, we may hang on,
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儘管我們負債累累
17:32
despite the huge burdens of debt that we've accumulated,
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儘管我們的職業道德已經淪喪
17:36
despite the evidence that we've lost our work ethic
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儘管我們其他的歷史優勢都不再靈光
17:39
and other parts of our historical mojo.
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我們還是可以生存的
17:42
But one thing is for sure,
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但各位，有一點是肯定的
17:44
the Great Divergence
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大分流
17:46
is over, folks.
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已經玩完了
17:48
Thanks very much.
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非常感謝大家
17:50
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
18:15
Bruno Giussani: Niall,
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Bruno Giussani：Niall
18:17
I am just curious
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我很好奇
18:19
about your take on the other region of the world that's booming,
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你對拉丁美洲這片正在崛起的地區
18:22
which is Latin America.
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有何看法
18:25
What's your view on that?
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說說你的看法
18:28
Niall Ferguson: Well I really am not just talking
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Niall Ferguson：我所談論的
18:30
about the rise of the East;
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並不只是東方的崛起
18:32
I'm talking about the rise of the Rest,
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我說的是西方以外地區的崛起
18:34
and that includes South America.
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南美洲當然也包含在內
18:36
I once asked one of my colleagues at Harvard,
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我曾經向我在哈佛大學的一位同事請教
18:38
"Hey, is South America part of the West?"
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「嘿，南美洲屬於西方嗎？」
18:40
He was an expert in Latin American history.
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他可是拉丁美洲歷史方面的專家
18:42
He said, "I don't know; I'll have to think about that."
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他說：「我還真不確定，我得好好想想。」
18:44
That tells you something really important.
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這很能說明問題
18:46
I think if you look at what is happening in Brazil in particular,
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各位看看巴西的情況
18:48
but also Chile,
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還有智利
18:50
which was in many ways the one that led the way
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這個國家在經濟生活中的制度轉型
18:53
in transforming the institutions of economic life,
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有許多過人之處
18:56
there's a very bright future indeed.
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這個國家的前景一片光明
18:59
So my story really is
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我想說的是
19:01
as much about that convergence in the Americas
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美洲的大分流
19:04
as it's a convergence story in Eurasia.
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和歐亞的大分流情況是差不多的
19:06
BG: And there is this impression
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集郵薩尼：似乎
19:08
that North America and Europe
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北美洲和歐洲
19:10
are not really paying attention
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都沒有注意到
19:12
to these trends.
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這些趨勢
19:14
Mostly they're worried about each other.
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他們只是相互擔心
19:17
The Americans think that the European model is going to crumble tomorrow.
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美國人擔心歐洲模式明天就要分崩離析
19:20
The Europeans think that the American budget is going to explode tomorrow.
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而歐洲人擔心美國各方矛盾不久即將爆發
19:23
And that's all we seem to be caring about recently.
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我們似乎最近都在擔心這些
19:26
NF: I think the fiscal crisis
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NF：認為發達國家的政府財政危機
19:28
that we see in the developed World right now -- both sides of the Atlantic --
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不管是歐洲還是美國
19:31
is essentially the same thing
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在本質上都是相同的
19:33
taking different forms
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只不過披著不同的
19:35
in terms of political culture.
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政治文化外衣而已
19:37
And it's a crisis that has its structural facet --
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這個危機有它自身的結構
19:41
it's partly to do with demographics.
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這在一定程度上與人口統計數據有關
19:43
But it's also, of course, to do with the massive crisis
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但是這主要還是過度槓桿作用
19:46
that followed excessive leverage,
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和過度向私有行業貸款
19:48
excessive borrowing in the private sector.
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才導致大規模危機的產生
19:50
That crisis,
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民眾對危機過於關注
19:52
which has been the focus of so much attention, including by me,
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我也不例外
19:55
I think is an epiphenomenon.
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我認為這是一種偶發現象
19:57
The financial crisis is really a relatively small historic phenomenon,
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金融危機不算是非常重大的歷史現象
20:00
which has just accelerated
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只是在近期才開始
20:02
this huge shift,
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愈演愈烈
20:04
which ends half a millennium of Western ascendancy.
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結束了西方五百年的世襲優勢
20:06
I think that's its real importance.
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我認為這才是其重要性所在
20:08
BG: Niall, thank you. (NF: Thank you very much, Bruno.)
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BG: 謝謝你(NF:也謝謝你，Bruno)
20:10
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Niall Ferguson - HistorianHistory is a curious thing, and Niall Ferguson investigates not only what happened but why. (Hint: Politics and money explain a lot.)
Why you should listen
Niall Ferguson teaches history and business administration at Harvard and is a senior research fellow at several other universities, including Oxford. His books chronicle a wide range of political and socio-economic events; he has written about everything from German politics during the era of inflation to a financial history of the world. He’s now working on a biography of former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.
Ferguson is a prolific and often controversial commentator on contemporary politics and economics. He frequently writes, reviews, and hosts for the British and American press. His latest book and TV series, Civilization: The West and the Rest, aims to help 21st-century audiences understand the past and the present. In it, he asks how, since the 1500s, Western nations have surpassed their Eastern counterparts and came to dominate the world (his answer: thanks to six “killer apps”: science, medicine, protestant work ethic, competition, property rights, consumer society). And he wonders whether that domination is now threatened by the rise of Asia. His theories have drawn criticism and prompted discussions, which he says was his intent. “It’s designed to be slightly annoying, so that you talk about it,” he told The Observer.
He says: "If a majority of people subscribe to a particular view, it pays to question it. It pays to think: maybe this is wrong."
Niall Ferguson | Speaker | TED.com