TEDGlobal 2011
Niall Ferguson: The 6 killer apps of prosperity
尼尔·费格森：走向兴盛的六大致命程序
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在过去的几个世纪中，西方国家在国家兴盛方面大显身手。历史学家尼尔·费格森问道：为何西方如此成功，而不是其它地区呢？他提出西方文化中的一系列重要思想，称之为促进财富、稳定、创新的“六大致命应用程序”。他说，在新世纪里，这些应用程序将得到共享。
Niall Ferguson - Historian
History is a curious thing, and Niall Ferguson investigates not only what happened but why. (Hint: Politics and money explain a lot.) Full bio
History is a curious thing, and Niall Ferguson investigates not only what happened but why. (Hint: Politics and money explain a lot.) Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Let's talk about billions.
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我们来说说数以亿计
00:18
Let's talk about
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past and future billions.
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过去和将来的数以亿计
00:24
We know
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众所周知
00:26
that about 106 billion people
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在地球上生活过的人
00:29
have ever lived.
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有1060亿
00:31
And we know that most of them are dead.
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当然大多数人已经不在人世了
00:34
And we also know
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我们还知道
00:36
that most of them live or lived in Asia.
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他们大多数人生活在或曾经生活在亚洲
00:38
And we also know
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我们还知道
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that most of them were or are very poor --
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他们大多数人非常贫穷
00:44
did not live for very long.
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寿命不长
00:47
Let's talk about billions.
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我们来说说数以亿计
00:50
Let's talk about
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我们来说说
00:52
the 195,000 billion dollars of wealth
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现今世界
00:56
in the world today.
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高达195万亿美元的财富
00:59
We know that most of that wealth
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这些财富的大部分
01:02
was made after the year 1800.
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是从1800年开始被创造的
01:05
And we know that most of it
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而现在 这些财富的
01:08
is currently owned
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主要拥有者
01:10
by people we might call Westerners:
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是西方人
01:14
Europeans, North Americans, Australasians.
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欧洲人 北美人和澳洲人
01:18
19 percent of the world's population today,
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仅占世界人口19%的西方人
01:21
Westerners own two-thirds of its wealth.
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拥有了全球三分之二的财富
01:25
Economic historians
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经济历史学家
01:27
call this "The Great Divergence."
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称之为“大分流”
01:30
And this slide here
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这个幻灯片
01:32
is the best simplification
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能够最好地展示
01:34
of the Great Divergence story
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简化版的
01:36
I can offer you.
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“大分流”故事
01:38
It's basically two ratios
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上面是两个
01:40
of per capita GDP,
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人均GDP比率
01:42
per capita gross domestic product,
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也就是人均国内生产总值
01:45
so average income.
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平均收入
01:47
One, the red line,
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红色的那条线
01:49
is the ratio of British to Indian
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代表英国和印度的
01:51
per capita income.
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人均收入之比
01:53
And the blue line
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而蓝色那条
01:55
is the ratio of American to Chinese.
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则是美国与中国的人均收入之比
01:58
And this chart goes back to 1500.
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这幅图追溯到1500年
02:00
And you can see here
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大家可以看到
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that there's an exponential Great Divergence.
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大分流的走势
02:05
They start off pretty close together.
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这两条曲线一开始非常接近
02:07
In fact, in 1500,
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事实上 在1500年
02:09
the average Chinese was richer than the average North American.
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中国人普遍比美国人富有
02:13
When you get to the 1970s,
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而到了二十世纪70年代
02:16
which is where this chart ends,
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也就是这幅图时间的结点
02:18
the average Briton is more than 10 times richer
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英国人平均比印度人
02:20
than the average Indian.
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富十倍
02:22
And that's allowing
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这就产生了
02:24
for differences in the cost of living.
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生活消费的差异
02:26
It's based on purchasing power parity.
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这是建立在购买力对等基础上的
02:29
The average American
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到了二十世纪70年代
02:31
is nearly 20 times richer
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美国人平均
02:33
than the average Chinese
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比中国人
02:35
by the 1970s.
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富二十倍
02:37
So why?
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这是为什么？
02:40
This wasn't just an economic story.
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这并不仅仅只是一个经济问题
02:43
If you take the 10 countries
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看看这十个
02:45
that went on to become
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后来成为
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the Western empires,
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帝国的西方国家
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in 1500 they were really quite tiny --
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在1500年时 这些国家都很小
02:53
five percent of the world's land surface,
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仅占全球土地面积的5%
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16 percent of its population,
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人口仅占世界人口的16%
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maybe 20 percent of its income.
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而收入在全球仅占20%
03:00
By 1913,
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到了1913年
03:02
these 10 countries, plus the United States,
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包括美国在内的这十个国家
03:05
controlled vast global empires --
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控制了全球大片土地
03:08
58 percent of the world's territory,
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占据了全球58%的势力范围
03:10
about the same percentage of its population,
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而人口也占到了世界人口的58%左右
03:13
and a really huge, nearly three-quarters share
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创造了全球
03:16
of global economic output.
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近四分之三的财富
03:18
And notice, most of that went to the motherland,
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请注意 大部分财富都流入了这些国家
03:22
to the imperial metropoles,
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流入了帝国的大都市里
03:24
not to their colonial possessions.
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而不是殖民地
03:28
Now you can't just blame this on imperialism --
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你不能仅仅责怪帝国主义
03:30
though many people have tried to do so --
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尽管很多人这么做
03:33
for two reasons.
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原因有二
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One, empire was the least original thing
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第一 1500年以后
03:39
that the West did after 1500.
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帝国到处都是
03:42
Everybody did empire.
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大家都建立帝国
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They beat preexisting Oriental empires
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之前建立的东方帝国被打败了
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like the Mughals and the Ottomans.
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例如莫卧儿帝国和奥斯曼帝国
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So it really doesn't look like empire is a great explanation
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所以 大分流并不见得
03:53
for the Great Divergence.
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是帝国造成的
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In any case, as you may remember,
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不知你们是否记得
03:57
the Great Divergence reaches its zenith in the 1970s,
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到了二十世纪七十年代
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some considerable time after decolonization.
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大分流在殖民时期结束后又过了很长一段时间最终走到了尽头
04:04
This is not a new question.
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这不是一个新问题了
04:06
Samuel Johnson,
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著名词典编纂家
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the great lexicographer,
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塞缪尔·约翰
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[posed] it through his character Rasselas
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通过他1759年所著小说
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in his novel "Rasselas, Prince of Abissinia,"
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《幸福谷－－拉塞拉斯王子的故事》中的人物拉塞拉斯
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published in 1759.
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提出了这个问题
04:19
"By what means are the Europeans thus powerful;
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“ 欧洲人何以如此强大？
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or why, since they can so easily visit Asia and Africa
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他们为何能够轻而易举地来到亚洲和非洲
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for trade or conquest,
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进行贸易或征服
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cannot the Asiaticks and Africans
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而亚洲人和非洲人
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invade their coasts,
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为何无力入侵他们的海岸线
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plant colonies in their ports,
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化其通商口岸为殖民地
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and give laws to their natural princes?
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并控制他们的王子呢？
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The same wind that carries them back
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既然是同一股风 为何它只将他们送回家
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would bring us thither?"
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却将我们送去他们那里？”
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That's a great question.
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这个问题问得很好
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And you know what,
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无独有偶
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it was also being asked at roughly the same time
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几乎在同一时期
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by the Resterners -- by the people in the rest of the world --
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西方国家之外的人
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like Ibrahim Muteferrika,
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其中有伊布拉希姆·穆特费黎加
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an Ottoman official,
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一位奥斯曼帝国的大官
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the man who introduced printing, very belatedly,
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也是后来将印刷术
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to the Ottoman Empire --
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引入奥斯曼帝国的人
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who said in a book published in 1731,
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在他1731年出版的一本书里
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"Why do Christian nations which were so weak in the past
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他说：“ 与穆斯林国家相比，
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compared with Muslim nations
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基督教国家原先显得弱不经风，
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begin to dominate so many lands in modern times
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但他们何以在现代统治了大片土地，
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and even defeat the once victorious Ottoman armies?"
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甚至战胜了曾经盛极一时的奥斯曼帝国？”
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Unlike Rasselas,
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和拉塞拉斯不同
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Muteferrika had an answer to that question,
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穆特费黎加对问题做了回答
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which was correct.
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答案还是正确的
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He said it was "because they have laws and rules
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他说：“因为他们制定了
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invented by reason."
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合理的法律法规。”
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It's not geography.
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这跟地理无关
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You may think we can explain the Great Divergence
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你们可能认为我们能从地理的角度
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in terms of geography.
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解释大分流
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We know that's wrong,
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这个思路是错误的
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because we conducted two great natural experiments in the 20th century
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我们在20世纪进行了两次自然试验
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to see if geography mattered more than institutions.
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来证明 地理和制度究竟哪个作用更大
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We took all the Germans,
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我们把德国
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we divided them roughly in two,
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分成了两部分
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and we gave the ones in the East communism,
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在东德推行共产主义
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and you see the result.
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结果大家都看到了
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Within an incredibly short period of time,
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在极短的一段时间里
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people living in the German Democratic Republic
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东德人
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produced Trabants, the Trabbi,
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生产了卫星牌汽车
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one of the world's worst ever cars,
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世界上性能最差的车型之一
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while people in the West produced the Mercedes Benz.
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而西德人却生产出了梅赛德斯奔驰
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If you still don't believe me,
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这如果还不足以说明问题
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we conducted the experiment also in the Korean Peninsula.
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我们又在朝鲜半岛进行了试验
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And we decided we'd take Koreans
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我们决定
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in roughly the same geographical place
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将生活在同一地理位置
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with, notice, the same basic traditional culture,
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拥有共同文化习俗的朝鲜人
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and we divided them in two, and we gave the Northerners communism.
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分为两部分 并在北朝鲜实行共产主义
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And the result is an even bigger divergence
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结果 朝韩两方
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in a very short space of time
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在更短的时间内
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than happened in Germany.
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出现了大分流，比起德国的更甚
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Not a big divergence in terms of uniform design for border guards admittedly,
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我承认 他们边防军制服的款式区别不大
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but in almost every other respect,
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但在其它方面
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it's a huge divergence.
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双方存在极大差异
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Which leads me to think
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这让我不得不想到
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that neither geography nor national character,
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地理 国家特征
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popular explanations for this kind of thing,
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以及其它主流解释
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are really significant.
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都站不住脚
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It's the ideas.
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真正发挥作用的是思想
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It's the institutions.
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是制度
06:51
This must be true
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这千真万确
06:53
because a Scotsman said it.
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这可是一位苏格兰人说的
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And I think I'm the only Scotsman here at the Edinburgh TED.
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我想我是这里唯一的苏格兰人
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So let me just explain to you
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我来解释一下
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that the smartest man ever was a Scotsman.
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世界上最聪明的人是一个苏格兰人
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He was Adam Smith --
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他就是亚当·斯密
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not Billy Connolly, not Sean Connery --
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不是比利·康诺利或肖恩·康纳利
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though he is very smart indeed.
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虽然他也很聪明
07:11
(Laughter)
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（众人笑）
07:14
Smith -- and I want you to go
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斯密 你们都应该
07:16
and bow down before his statue in the Royal Mile;
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到他在皇家麦尔大道的雕像前鞠一躬
07:19
it's a wonderful statue --
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这座雕像非常宏伟
07:21
Smith, in the "Wealth of Nations"
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斯密在1776年发表了
07:23
published in 1776 --
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《国富论》
07:25
that's the most important thing that happened that year ...
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这可是当年最了不起的历史事件
07:28
(Laughter)
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（众人笑）
07:31
You bet.
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难道不是吗
07:34
There was a little local difficulty in some of our minor colonies, but ...
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虽然当时我们一些次要的殖民地出了点问题
07:37
(Laughter)
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（众人笑）
07:39
"China seems to have been long stationary,
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他说：“中国似乎已经停滞很久了，
07:41
and probably long ago acquired that full complement of riches
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也许在很久以前 中国创造财富的能力已经发挥到了极致，
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which is consistent with the nature of its laws and institutions.
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而这取决于该国法律和制度的性质。
07:48
But this complement may be much inferior
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但是 如果中国采用其它形式的法律和制度
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to what, with other laws and institutions,
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那么这一能力
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the nature of its soil, climate, and situation
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反而无法在同样的土壤，气候和条件下
07:55
might admit of."
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得到完全发挥。”
07:57
That is so right and so cool.
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这说得一点不假
07:59
And he said it such a long time ago.
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在那么久以前 他就说出了这番话
08:02
But you know, this is a TED audience,
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但是 我面对的是TED观众
08:05
and if I keep talking about institutions,
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如果我继续谈论制度
08:07
you're going to turn off.
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你们可能就听不下去了
08:09
So I'm going to translate this into language that you can understand.
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所以 我要把它翻译成通俗易懂的语言
08:13
Let's call them the killer apps.
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我们就把这些制度称作“致命” 应用程序吧
08:17
I want to explain to you that there were six killer apps
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我会逐一介绍六个“致命”应用程序
08:20
that set the West apart from the rest.
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解释它们如何让西方脱颖而出
08:23
And they're kind of like the apps on your phone,
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它们就像你手机上的应用程序
08:25
in the sense that they look quite simple.
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因为它们都很容易上手
08:27
They're just icons; you click on them.
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它们就像一个个图标 手指一点就行了
08:29
But behind the icon, there's complex code.
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然而在图标背后 则是复杂的程序
08:32
It's the same with institutions.
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制度也是如此
08:34
There are six
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我认为 这六个应用程序
08:36
which I think explain the Great Divergence.
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能够解释大分流的形成
08:39
One, competition.
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第一 竞争
08:41
Two, the scientific revolution.
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第二 科技革命
08:43
Three, property rights.
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第三 产权
08:45
Four, modern medicine.
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第四 现代医药
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Five, the consumer society.
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第五 消费者导向社会
08:49
And six, the work ethic.
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第六 职业道德
08:51
You can play a game and try and think of one I've missed at,
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你可以玩这个游戏看看我有没有漏掉什么
08:53
or try and boil it down to just four,
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或者试试看能不能砍掉两个
08:56
but you'll lose.
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但是你输定了
08:58
(Laughter)
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（众人笑）
09:00
Let me very briefly tell you what I mean by this,
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通过综合经济历史学家的观点
09:03
synthesizing the work of many economic historians
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我来简短解释一下
09:06
in the process.
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我的意思
09:08
Competition means,
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竞争意味着
09:10
not only were there a hundred different political units in Europe in 1500,
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1500年 欧洲不仅拥有100多个政治单位
09:12
but within each of these units,
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而在这些单位中
09:14
there was competition between corporations as well as sovereigns.
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既有组织间的竞争 又有主权国家之间的竞争
09:18
The ancestor of the modern corporation, the City of London Corporation,
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公司集团的鼻祖 伦敦金融城集团
09:21
existed in the 12th century.
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存在于12世纪
09:23
Nothing like this existed in China,
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中国没有这样的制度
09:25
where there was one monolithic state
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中国的人口占世界总人口的五分之一
09:27
covering a fifth of humanity,
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国家实现中央集权制度
09:29
and anyone with any ambition
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胸怀大志的人
09:31
had to pass one standardized examination,
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必须通过统一的科举考试
09:33
which took three days and was very difficult
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一考就是三天 考试难度很大
09:35
and involved memorizing vast numbers of characters
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要求记忆大量汉字
09:38
and very complex Confucian essay writing.
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还要写繁冗复杂的儒家文章
09:42
The scientific revolution was different
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科技革命与东方的科学成就
09:45
from the science that had been achieved in the Oriental world
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在很多重要方面
09:48
in a number of crucial ways,
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都有不同
09:50
the most important being
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其中最大的不同之处
09:52
that, through the experimental method,
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就是科技革命通过实验性方法
09:54
it gave men control over nature in a way that had not been possible before.
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让人们用前所未见的方式掌控自然
09:57
Example: Benjamin Robins's extraordinary application
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本杰明·罗宾斯将牛顿物理学运用到弹道研究
10:01
of Newtonian physics to ballistics.
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就是个很好的例子
10:04
Once you do that,
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这么做
10:06
your artillery becomes accurate.
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能够保证炮弹打击的精准度
10:09
Think of what that means.
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这意味着什么
10:11
That really was a killer application.
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这个应用程序果然厉害
10:13
(Laughter)
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（众人笑）
10:16
Meanwhile, there's no scientific revolution anywhere else.
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同时 科技革命只发生在西方
10:19
The Ottoman Empire's not that far from Europe,
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奥斯曼帝国离欧洲并不远
10:21
but there's no scientific revolution there.
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而这里并没有发生科技革命
10:23
In fact, they demolish Taqi al-Din's observatory,
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该国政府拆毁了科学家达兹·艾-丁的天文观测台
10:26
because it's considered blasphemous
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认为该观测台窥视上帝
10:28
to inquire into the mind of God.
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亵渎圣灵
10:31
Property rights: It's not the democracy, folks;
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产权 而不是民主 同志们
10:34
it's having the rule of law based on private property rights.
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通过法律管理私有知识产权
10:37
That's what makes the difference
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北美洲和南美洲
10:39
between North America and South America.
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为何如此不同
10:41
You could turn up in North America
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你到北美洲去
10:43
having signed a deed of indenture
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签一个契约
10:45
saying, "I'll work for nothing for five years.
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说：“我愿意无偿工作五年。
10:47
You just have to feed me."
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你只要管我饭吃就行。”
10:49
But at the end of it, you've got a hundred acres of land.
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而五年之后 你得到了一百公顷的土地
10:52
That's the land grant
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这张幻灯片下面的就是
10:54
on the bottom half of the slide.
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土地赠与书
10:56
That's not possible in Latin America
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但在拉丁美洲 这是不可能的
10:59
where land is held onto
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这里的土地
11:01
by a tiny elite descended from the conquistadors.
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都集中在极少数西班牙征服者后裔手上
11:03
And you can see here the huge divergence
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你们看 南北美洲
11:05
that happens in property ownership between North and South.
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由于产权不同而出现了大分流
11:08
Most people in rural North America
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到1900年为止
11:10
owned some land by 1900.
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北美洲的大部分人都拥有了土地
11:13
Hardly anyone in South America did.
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而在南美洲 拥有土地的人寥寥无几
11:15
That's another killer app.
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这又是一个“致命”应用程序
11:18
Modern medicine in the late 19th century
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19世纪末期 现代医药
11:20
began to make major breakthroughs
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在治疗致命传染病方面
11:22
against the infectious diseases that killed a lot of people.
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取得重大突破
11:24
And this was another killer app --
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这又是一个“致命”应用程序
11:26
the very opposite of a killer,
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但这个程序并不致命
11:28
because it doubled, and then more than doubled, human life expectancy.
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反而将人类的寿命提高了一倍又一倍
11:31
It even did that
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现代医药
11:33
in the European empires.
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在欧洲帝国的殖民地中 也发挥了作用
11:35
Even in places like Senegal,
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即使是在塞内加尔（西非国家）
11:37
beginning in the early 20th century,
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公共卫生也在20世纪早期
11:39
there were major breakthroughs in public health,
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取得了重大突破
11:41
and life expectancy began to rise.
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延长了人们的寿命
11:43
It doesn't rise any faster
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而这些国家独立之后
11:45
after these countries become independent.
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人们的寿命并没有继续增加
11:47
The empires weren't all bad.
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所以说帝国也不见得都是不好的
11:49
The consumer society is what you need
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工业革命在一个消费者导向社会进行
11:51
for the Industrial Revolution to have a point.
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才有实际意义
11:54
You need people to want to wear tons of clothes.
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你需要大量需要购买衣服的人
11:56
You've all bought an article of clothing in the last month;
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你们上个月肯定都买过衣服
11:58
I guarantee it.
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我敢保证
12:00
That's the consumer society,
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正是消费者导向社会
12:02
and it propels economic growth
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推动了经济的增长
12:04
more than even technological change itself.
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其力量超过了技术革新本身
12:07
Japan was the first non-Western society
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日本是第一个非西方国家
12:09
to embrace it.
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以消费为导向的社会。
12:11
The alternative,
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而另一条路
12:13
which was proposed by Mahatma Gandhi,
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就是默罕默德·甘地提出的
12:15
was to institutionalize and make poverty permanent.
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将贫困制度化 永久化
12:18
Very few Indians today
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今天的印度
12:20
wish that India had gone down
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大家都庆幸
12:22
Mahatma Gandhi's road.
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他们没有选择甘地的这条道路
12:25
Finally, the work ethic.
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最后 职业道德
12:27
Max Weber thought that was peculiarly Protestant.
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麦克斯·韦伯认为这完全是新教的作风
12:30
He was wrong.
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他错了
12:32
Any culture can get the work ethic
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只要有创造
12:34
if the institutions are there
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劳动激励机制的制度
12:36
to create the incentive to work.
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任何文化都有自身的职业道德
12:38
We know this
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我们都清楚
12:40
because today the work ethic
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今天的职业道德
12:42
is no longer a Protestant, Western phenomenon.
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不再是新教或西方社会的专利
12:45
In fact, the West has lost its work ethic.
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事实上 西方的职业道德已经沦丧了
12:48
Today, the average Korean
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今天 一个韩国人
12:51
works a thousand hours more a year
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每年平均比一个德国人
12:55
than the average German --
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多工作1000个小时
12:57
a thousand.
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1000个小时啊
12:59
And this is part
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这从一方面
13:01
of a really extraordinary phenomenon,
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反映了一个惊人的现象
13:04
and that is the end of the Great Divergence.
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那就是 大分流的终结
13:07
Who's got the work ethic now?
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现在谁拥有职业道德
13:09
Take a look at mathematical attainment
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我们看看15岁学生的
13:12
by 15 year-olds.
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数学成绩
13:14
At the top of the international league table
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根据国际学生评估项目（PISA）的最近调查
13:16
according to the latest PISA study,
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中国上海的学生
13:19
is the Shanghai district of China.
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成绩高居榜首
13:21
The gap between Shanghai
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英国和美国
13:23
and the United Kingdom and the United States
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与上海之间的差距
13:26
is as big as the gap between the U.K. and the U.S.
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等同于阿尔巴尼亚和突尼斯
13:29
and Albania and Tunisia.
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与英美两国的差距
13:32
You probably assume
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你们可能认为
13:34
that because the iPhone was designed in California
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iPhone手机是由加利福尼亚设计
13:36
but assembled in China
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而在中国装配
13:38
that the West still leads in terms of technological innovation.
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所以西方在技术创新上还是处于领先地位
13:41
You're wrong.
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大错特错
13:43
In terms of patents,
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在专利方面
13:45
there's no question that the East is ahead.
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东方毫无疑问是处于领先的
13:47
Not only has Japan been ahead for some time,
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不仅日本处于领先有一段时间
13:50
South Korea has gone into third place,
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韩国已冲到了第三位
13:53
and China is just about to overtake Germany.
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而中国眼看就要超越德国
13:56
Why?
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怎么会这样
13:58
Because the killer apps can be downloaded.
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这是因为 人人都能下载“致命”应用程序
14:00
It's open source.
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是共享资源
14:02
Any society can adopt these institutions,
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各个社会都能采用这些制度
14:04
and when they do,
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一旦他们这么做了
14:06
they achieve what the West achieved after 1500 --
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他们就能实现西方1500年之后的成就
14:10
only faster.
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但他们的速度更快
14:12
This is the Great Reconvergence,
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这是新一轮的大分流
14:14
and it's the biggest story of your lifetime.
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是你一生中最重大的事件
14:18
Because it's on your watch that this is happening.
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因为你正亲眼目睹正在发生的这些事
14:21
It's our generation
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我们这一代人
14:23
that is witnessing the end of Western predominance.
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眼看着西方主导地位的终结
14:25
The average American used to be more than 20 times richer
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美国人人均曾经比中国人人均
14:27
than the average Chinese.
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富裕20倍
14:29
Now it's just five times,
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而今降至5倍
14:31
and soon it will be 2.5 times.
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很快会变成2.5倍
14:33
So I want to end with three questions
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我想通过三个问题
14:36
for the future billions,
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来结束
14:38
just ahead of 2016,
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在2016年 中国取代美国
14:41
when the United States will lose its place
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成为世界头号经济强国之前
14:43
as number one economy to China.
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这三个问题与未来发展有关
14:46
The first is, can you delete these apps,
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第一 这些应用程序能否被删除
14:50
and are we in the process of doing so
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西方国家
14:52
in the Western world?
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是否正在这么做
14:54
The second question is,
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第二问题
14:56
does the sequencing of the download matter?
355
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这些应用程序需要注重下载顺序吗
15:00
And could Africa get that sequencing wrong?
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非洲是否在下载顺序上出了错
15:05
One obvious implication of modern economic history
357
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我们从近代经济历史中学到
15:07
is that it's quite hard to transition to democracy
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如果不先建立有保障的私有产权
15:10
before you've established
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那么就很难
15:12
secure private property rights.
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建立民主制度
15:15
Warning: that may not work.
361
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警告 这可能行不通
15:18
And third, can China do without
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第三 若不采用应用程序三
15:20
killer app number three?
363
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中国能否成功
15:22
That's the one that John Locke systematized
364
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当洛克说自由根植于私有产权
15:26
when he said that freedom was rooted in private property rights
365
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和私有产权保护法中
15:30
and the protection of law.
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他就是在强调这一点
15:32
That's the basis
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这就是由
15:34
for the Western model
368
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代议制组成政府的西方模式
15:36
of representative government.
369
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基础所在
15:39
Now this picture shows the demolition
370
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2000
这张照片展示了
15:41
of the Chinese artist Ai Weiwei's studio
371
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3000
中国艺术家艾未未在上海的工作室
15:44
in Shanghai earlier this year.
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今年早些时候被拆除的画面
15:46
He's now free again,
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经过一段时间的关押
15:48
having been detained, as you know, for some time.
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他现在已经重获自由
15:50
But I don't think his studio has been rebuilt.
375
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但是他的工作室应该没有得到重建
15:55
Winston Churchill once defined civilization
376
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丘吉尔在1938年一次演说中
15:59
in a lecture he gave in the fateful year of 1938.
377
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曾对文明做出了定义
16:03
And I think these words really nail it:
378
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我认为这句话一针见血
16:06
"It means a society based upon the opinion of civilians.
379
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“文明意味着社会以民众的意见为基石。
16:10
It means that violence, the rule of warriors and despotic chiefs,
380
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意味着暴力，暴君统治，
16:13
the conditions of camps and warfare, of riot and tyranny,
381
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集中营，战争，暴乱，独裁
16:16
give place to parliaments where laws are made,
382
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统统让位于制定法律的议会
16:19
and independent courts of justice
383
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和长期保证法律得到执行的
16:21
in which over long periods those laws are maintained.
384
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3000
独立司法机关。
16:24
That is civilization --
385
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2000
这就是文明－－
16:26
and in its soil grow continually
386
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2000
在文明的土壤中，
16:28
freedom, comfort and culture,"
387
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3000
自由，祥和，文化都能茁壮成长。”
16:31
what all TEDsters care about most.
388
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这是所有TED迷最关心的
16:35
"When civilization reigns in any country,
389
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3000
“当文明进驻一个国家
16:38
a wider and less harassed life
390
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3000
广大民众也便过上了
16:41
is afforded to the masses of the people."
391
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3000
更为自由，舒适的生活。”
16:44
That's so true.
392
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这一点不假
16:48
I don't think the decline of Western civilization
393
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我认为西方文明的衰落
16:51
is inevitable,
394
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是不可避免的
16:53
because I don't think history operates
395
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3000
因为我认为历史并不是
16:56
in this kind of life-cycle model,
396
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以生命循环的方式发展的
16:58
beautifully illustrated by Thomas Cole's
397
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并非托马斯·科尔的系列画作
17:00
"Course of Empire" paintings.
398
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“帝国的兴衰”所描绘的那般绮丽
17:03
That's not the way history works.
399
1008000
3000
历史不是这样运作的
17:06
That's not the way the West rose,
400
1011000
2000
西方世界的崛起和衰落
17:08
and I don't think it's the way the West will fall.
401
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都不是这样发生的
17:11
The West may collapse very suddenly.
402
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3000
西方世界可能转眼间就崩塌了
17:14
Complex civilizations do that,
403
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复杂的文明往往都是这样
17:17
because they operate, most of the time,
404
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这是因为大多数情况下
17:19
on the edge of chaos.
405
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这些国家都处于崩溃的边缘
17:21
That's one of the most profound insights
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这是我们在对文明
17:24
to come out of the historical study of complex institutions
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这样复杂制度的历史研究中
17:27
like civilizations.
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最大的领悟
17:30
No, we may hang on,
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尽管我们负债累累
17:32
despite the huge burdens of debt that we've accumulated,
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尽管我们的职业道德已经沦丧
17:36
despite the evidence that we've lost our work ethic
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尽管我们其它的历史优势都不再灵光
17:39
and other parts of our historical mojo.
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我们还是可以生存的
17:42
But one thing is for sure,
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但有一点是肯定的 弟兄们
17:44
the Great Divergence
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大分流
17:46
is over, folks.
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已经玩完了
17:48
Thanks very much.
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感谢大家
17:50
(Applause)
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（众人鼓掌）
18:15
Bruno Giussani: Niall,
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布鲁诺·吉尤萨尼：尼尔
18:17
I am just curious
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我想知道
18:19
about your take on the other region of the world that's booming,
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你对拉丁美洲这片正在崛起的地区
18:22
which is Latin America.
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有何见解
18:25
What's your view on that?
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说说你的看法
18:28
Niall Ferguson: Well I really am not just talking
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尼尔·费格森：我所谈论的
18:30
about the rise of the East;
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并不只是东方的崛起
18:32
I'm talking about the rise of the Rest,
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我说的是西方以外地区的崛起
18:34
and that includes South America.
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南美洲当然也包括在内
18:36
I once asked one of my colleagues at Harvard,
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我曾经问我在哈佛大学的一位同事
18:38
"Hey, is South America part of the West?"
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“嘿，南美洲属于西方吗？”
18:40
He was an expert in Latin American history.
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他可是拉丁美洲历史方面的专家
18:42
He said, "I don't know; I'll have to think about that."
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他说：“我还真不确定。我得好好想想。”
18:44
That tells you something really important.
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这很能说明问题
18:46
I think if you look at what is happening in Brazil in particular,
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你们看看巴西的情况
18:48
but also Chile,
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还有智力
18:50
which was in many ways the one that led the way
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这个国家在经济生活中的制度转型
18:53
in transforming the institutions of economic life,
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有许多过人之处
18:56
there's a very bright future indeed.
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这个国家的前景一片光明
18:59
So my story really is
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我想说的是
19:01
as much about that convergence in the Americas
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美洲的大分流
19:04
as it's a convergence story in Eurasia.
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和欧亚的大分流情况是差不多的
19:06
BG: And there is this impression
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吉尤萨尼：似乎
19:08
that North America and Europe
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北美和欧洲
19:10
are not really paying attention
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都没有注意到
19:12
to these trends.
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这些趋势
19:14
Mostly they're worried about each other.
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他们只是相互担心
19:17
The Americans think that the European model is going to crumble tomorrow.
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美国人担心欧洲模式明天就要分崩离析
19:20
The Europeans think that the American budget is going to explode tomorrow.
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而欧洲人担心美国各方矛盾不久就会爆发
19:23
And that's all we seem to be caring about recently.
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似乎我们最近都在担心这些事情
19:26
NF: I think the fiscal crisis
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费格森：认为发达国家的政府财政危机
19:28
that we see in the developed World right now -- both sides of the Atlantic --
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不管是欧洲还是美国
19:31
is essentially the same thing
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在本质上都是相同的
19:33
taking different forms
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只不过披着不同的
19:35
in terms of political culture.
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政治文化外衣而已
19:37
And it's a crisis that has its structural facet --
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这个危机尤其它自身的结构
19:41
it's partly to do with demographics.
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这在一定程度上与人口统计数据有关
19:43
But it's also, of course, to do with the massive crisis
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但是 这主要还是过度杠杆作用
19:46
that followed excessive leverage,
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和过度向私有行业贷款
19:48
excessive borrowing in the private sector.
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才导致大规模危机的产生
19:50
That crisis,
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人们
19:52
which has been the focus of so much attention, including by me,
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对危机过于关注 我也不例外
19:55
I think is an epiphenomenon.
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我认为这是一种偶发现象
19:57
The financial crisis is really a relatively small historic phenomenon,
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金融危机不算是非常重大的历史现象
20:00
which has just accelerated
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只是在近期才开始
20:02
this huge shift,
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愈演愈烈
20:04
which ends half a millennium of Western ascendancy.
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结束了西方五百年的世袭优势
20:06
I think that's its real importance.
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我认为这才是其重要性所在
20:08
BG: Niall, thank you. (NF: Thank you very much, Bruno.)
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吉尤萨尼：谢谢你 （费格森：也谢谢你 布鲁诺）
20:10
(Applause)
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（众人鼓掌）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Niall Ferguson - HistorianHistory is a curious thing, and Niall Ferguson investigates not only what happened but why. (Hint: Politics and money explain a lot.)
Why you should listen
Niall Ferguson teaches history and business administration at Harvard and is a senior research fellow at several other universities, including Oxford. His books chronicle a wide range of political and socio-economic events; he has written about everything from German politics during the era of inflation to a financial history of the world. He’s now working on a biography of former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.
Ferguson is a prolific and often controversial commentator on contemporary politics and economics. He frequently writes, reviews, and hosts for the British and American press. His latest book and TV series, Civilization: The West and the Rest, aims to help 21st-century audiences understand the past and the present. In it, he asks how, since the 1500s, Western nations have surpassed their Eastern counterparts and came to dominate the world (his answer: thanks to six “killer apps”: science, medicine, protestant work ethic, competition, property rights, consumer society). And he wonders whether that domination is now threatened by the rise of Asia. His theories have drawn criticism and prompted discussions, which he says was his intent. “It’s designed to be slightly annoying, so that you talk about it,” he told The Observer.
He says: "If a majority of people subscribe to a particular view, it pays to question it. It pays to think: maybe this is wrong."
Niall Ferguson | Speaker | TED.com