TEDGlobal 2011
Niall Ferguson: The 6 killer apps of prosperity
Niall Ferguson: 6 ubojitih aplikacija prosperiteta
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Tijekom posljednjih nekoliko stoljeća, zapadne su kulture bile vrlo dobre u stvaranju općeg prosperiteta za sebe. Povjesničar Niall Ferguson postavlja pitanje: Zašto zapad, a ne drugi? On smatra da je u pitanju 6 velikih ideja zapadne kulture -- naziva ih 6 ubojitih aplikacija -- koje promoviraju bogatstvo, stabilnost i inovacije. A u ovome novom stoljeću, kaže, ove aplikacije dostupne su svima.
Niall Ferguson - Historian
History is a curious thing, and Niall Ferguson investigates not only what happened but why. (Hint: Politics and money explain a lot.) Full bio
History is a curious thing, and Niall Ferguson investigates not only what happened but why. (Hint: Politics and money explain a lot.) Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Let's talk about billions.
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Razgovarajmo o milijardama.
00:18
Let's talk about
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Razgovarajmo o
00:21
past and future billions.
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prošlim i budućim milijardama.
00:24
We know
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Znamo
00:26
that about 106 billion people
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da je oko 106 milijardi ljudi
00:29
have ever lived.
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živjelo do sada.
00:31
And we know that most of them are dead.
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I znamo da je većina njih mrtva.
00:34
And we also know
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Također znamo
00:36
that most of them live or lived in Asia.
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da većina njih živi ili je živjela u Aziji.
00:38
And we also know
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Te također znamo
00:40
that most of them were or are very poor --
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da je većina njih bila ili jest vrlo siromašna --
00:44
did not live for very long.
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nisu živjeli jako dugo.
00:47
Let's talk about billions.
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Razgovarajmo o milijardama.
00:50
Let's talk about
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Razgovarajmo o
00:52
the 195,000 billion dollars of wealth
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195.000 milijardi dolara bogatstva
00:56
in the world today.
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koje trenutno postoji na svijetu.
00:59
We know that most of that wealth
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Znamo da je većina tog bogatstva
01:02
was made after the year 1800.
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stvorena nakon 1800. godine.
01:05
And we know that most of it
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I znamo da je većina toga
01:08
is currently owned
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trenutno u posjedu
01:10
by people we might call Westerners:
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ljudi koje bismo mogli nazvati zapadnjacima:
01:14
Europeans, North Americans, Australasians.
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stanovnici Europe, Sjeverne Amerike, Australazije.
01:18
19 percent of the world's population today,
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19 posto današnje svjetske populacije,
01:21
Westerners own two-thirds of its wealth.
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zapadnjaci, posjeduju dvije trećine bogatstva.
01:25
Economic historians
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Ekonomski povjesničari
01:27
call this "The Great Divergence."
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nazivaju ovo Velikom divergencijom.
01:30
And this slide here
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Ovaj je slajd
01:32
is the best simplification
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najbolje pojednostavljenje
01:34
of the Great Divergence story
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priče Velike divergencije
01:36
I can offer you.
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koje vam mogu ponuditi.
01:38
It's basically two ratios
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U osnovi, radi se o dva omjera
01:40
of per capita GDP,
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BDP-a po stanovniku,
01:42
per capita gross domestic product,
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bruto domaći proizvod po stanovniku,
01:45
so average income.
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dakle, prosječna primanja.
01:47
One, the red line,
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Prvo, crvena crta,
01:49
is the ratio of British to Indian
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omjer je britanskog i indijskog
01:51
per capita income.
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dohotka po glavi stanovnika.
01:53
And the blue line
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Plava crta
01:55
is the ratio of American to Chinese.
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predstavlja omjer između američkog i kineskog dohotka.
01:58
And this chart goes back to 1500.
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Ovaj grafikon prikazuje sve do 1500. godine.
02:00
And you can see here
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Ovdje možete vidjeti
02:02
that there's an exponential Great Divergence.
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da postoji eksponencijalna Velika divergencija.
02:05
They start off pretty close together.
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Počinju zajedno prilično blizu.
02:07
In fact, in 1500,
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U stvari, 1500. godine,
02:09
the average Chinese was richer than the average North American.
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prosječni je Kinez bio bogatiji od prosječnog Sjevernoamerikanca.
02:13
When you get to the 1970s,
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Kad dođete do 1970-ih,
02:16
which is where this chart ends,
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gdje ovaj grafikon završava,
02:18
the average Briton is more than 10 times richer
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prosječni je Britanac 10 puta bogatiji
02:20
than the average Indian.
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od prosječnog Indijca.
02:22
And that's allowing
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A tu su uračunate
02:24
for differences in the cost of living.
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i razlike u troškovima života.
02:26
It's based on purchasing power parity.
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Bazirano je na paritetu kupovne moći.
02:29
The average American
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Prosječni Amerikanac
02:31
is nearly 20 times richer
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gotovo je 20 puta bogatiji
02:33
than the average Chinese
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od prosječnog Kineza
02:35
by the 1970s.
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do 1970-ih.
02:37
So why?
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Zašto?
02:40
This wasn't just an economic story.
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Ovo nije samo ekonomska priča.
02:43
If you take the 10 countries
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Ako uzmete 10 zemalja
02:45
that went on to become
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koje su postale
02:48
the Western empires,
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zapadna carstva,
02:50
in 1500 they were really quite tiny --
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1500-tih bili su prilično sićušni --
02:53
five percent of the world's land surface,
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na pet posto zemljine površine,
02:55
16 percent of its population,
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16 posto populacije,
02:57
maybe 20 percent of its income.
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možda 20 posto dohotka.
03:00
By 1913,
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Do 1913. godine,
03:02
these 10 countries, plus the United States,
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ovih 10 zemalja, plus Sjedinjene Države,
03:05
controlled vast global empires --
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kotrolirale su velika svjetska carstva --
03:08
58 percent of the world's territory,
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58 posto svjetskog teritorija,
03:10
about the same percentage of its population,
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otprilike isti postotak populacije,
03:13
and a really huge, nearly three-quarters share
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i zaista visok udio, gotovo tri četvrtine,
03:16
of global economic output.
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svjetske gospodarske proizvodnje.
03:18
And notice, most of that went to the motherland,
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Primijetite da je većina toga odlazila je u matične zemlje,
03:22
to the imperial metropoles,
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u metropole imperija,
03:24
not to their colonial possessions.
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ne u njihove kolonijalne posjede.
03:28
Now you can't just blame this on imperialism --
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Za ovo ne možete kriviti samo imperijalizam,
03:30
though many people have tried to do so --
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iako su mnogi pokušali,
03:33
for two reasons.
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i to iz dva razloga.
03:36
One, empire was the least original thing
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Prvo, imperiji nisu bili nikakva novost
03:39
that the West did after 1500.
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na Zapadu nakon 1500. godine.
03:42
Everybody did empire.
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Svi su imali imperije.
03:45
They beat preexisting Oriental empires
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Nadvladali su ranije orijentalne imperije
03:48
like the Mughals and the Ottomans.
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poput mogulskog i osmanskog.
03:50
So it really doesn't look like empire is a great explanation
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Imperiji, dakle, i nisu baš sjajno objašnjenje
03:53
for the Great Divergence.
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Velike divergencije.
03:55
In any case, as you may remember,
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U svakom slučaju, sjetite se
03:57
the Great Divergence reaches its zenith in the 1970s,
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da Velika divergencija dostiže vrhunac 1970-ih,
04:00
some considerable time after decolonization.
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dosta nakon dekolonizacije.
04:04
This is not a new question.
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Ovo pitanje nije novo.
04:06
Samuel Johnson,
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Samuel Johnson,
04:08
the great lexicographer,
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veliki leksikograf,
04:10
[posed] it through his character Rasselas
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govorio je o ovome kroz lik Rasselasa
04:13
in his novel "Rasselas, Prince of Abissinia,"
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u svojem romanu "Rasselas, Prince of Abissinia",
04:16
published in 1759.
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objavljenom 1759. godine.
04:19
"By what means are the Europeans thus powerful;
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"Kojim su sredstvima Europljani tako moćni;
04:22
or why, since they can so easily visit Asia and Africa
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ili zašto, kad tako lako mogu doći u Aziju i Afriku
04:25
for trade or conquest,
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radi trgovine ili osvajanja,
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cannot the Asiaticks and Africans
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ne mogu Azijati i Afrikanci
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invade their coasts,
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napasti njihove obale,
04:32
plant colonies in their ports,
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razviti kolonije u njihovim lukama
04:34
and give laws to their natural princes?
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i nametnuti zakone njihovim tradicionalnim prinčevima?
04:37
The same wind that carries them back
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Zar ne bi isti vjetar koji njih vraća,
04:40
would bring us thither?"
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nas odveo do njih?"
04:42
That's a great question.
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Ovo je odlično pitanje.
04:44
And you know what,
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I znate što,
04:46
it was also being asked at roughly the same time
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gotovo su ga istovremeno postavljali
04:48
by the Resterners -- by the people in the rest of the world --
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i Ostali - ljudi u ostatku svijeta --
04:51
like Ibrahim Muteferrika,
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poput Ibrahima Muteferrika,
04:54
an Ottoman official,
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osmanskog službenika,
04:56
the man who introduced printing, very belatedly,
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koji je s velikim zakašnjenjem doveo tisak
04:59
to the Ottoman Empire --
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u Osmansko carstvo.
05:01
who said in a book published in 1731,
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U knjizi iz 1731. godine on pita:
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"Why do Christian nations which were so weak in the past
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"Zašto kršćanske nacije koje su bile tako slabe u prošlosti
05:06
compared with Muslim nations
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u usporedbi s muslimanskima
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begin to dominate so many lands in modern times
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počinju dominirati tolikim zemljama u moderno doba,
05:12
and even defeat the once victorious Ottoman armies?"
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pa čak i pobjeđuju nekad slavne osmanske vojske?"
05:16
Unlike Rasselas,
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Za razliku od Rasselasa,
05:18
Muteferrika had an answer to that question,
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Muteferrika je imao odgovor na to pitanje
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which was correct.
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i bio je upravu.
05:23
He said it was "because they have laws and rules
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Rekao je da je to "zbog toga što imaju zakone i pravila
05:27
invented by reason."
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utemeljene na razumu."
05:31
It's not geography.
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To nije geografija.
05:34
You may think we can explain the Great Divergence
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Možda mislite da Veliku divergenciju možemo objasniti
05:36
in terms of geography.
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u okvirima geografije.
05:38
We know that's wrong,
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Znamo da je to pogrešno
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because we conducted two great natural experiments in the 20th century
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jer smo napravili dva velika prirodna eksperimenta u 20. stoljeću
05:42
to see if geography mattered more than institutions.
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da vidimo je li geografija važnija od institucija.
05:44
We took all the Germans,
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Uzeli smo sve Nijemce,
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we divided them roughly in two,
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podijelili smo ih na otprilike pola,
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and we gave the ones in the East communism,
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i onima na istoku dali smo komunizam.
05:52
and you see the result.
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I vidite rezultat.
05:55
Within an incredibly short period of time,
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Za nevjerojatno kratko vrijeme
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people living in the German Democratic Republic
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ljudi iz Njemačke Demokratske Republike,
05:59
produced Trabants, the Trabbi,
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proizveli su Trabant, tzv. Trabbi,
06:02
one of the world's worst ever cars,
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jedan od najgorih automobila ikad proizvedenih,
06:05
while people in the West produced the Mercedes Benz.
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dok su oni na zapadu proizveli Mercedes Benz.
06:08
If you still don't believe me,
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Ako mi i dalje ne vjerujete,
06:10
we conducted the experiment also in the Korean Peninsula.
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eksperiment smo izvršili i na Korejskom poluotoku.
06:12
And we decided we'd take Koreans
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Odlučili smo uzeti Korejce
06:14
in roughly the same geographical place
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s otprilike istog geografskog područja
06:16
with, notice, the same basic traditional culture,
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i, primijetite, s istom osnovnom tradicionalnom kulturom,
06:20
and we divided them in two, and we gave the Northerners communism.
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podijelili smo ih na dvije grupe i dali onima sa sjevera komunizam.
06:23
And the result is an even bigger divergence
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Rezultat je čak veća divergencija
06:26
in a very short space of time
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u još kraćem razdoblju
06:28
than happened in Germany.
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nego u Njemačkoj.
06:30
Not a big divergence in terms of uniform design for border guards admittedly,
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Nisu se toliko razlikovali u dizajnu uniformi za pogranične stražare,
06:34
but in almost every other respect,
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ali u gotovo svakom drugom smislu,
06:36
it's a huge divergence.
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divergencija je ogromna.
06:38
Which leads me to think
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To me dovodi do zaključka
06:40
that neither geography nor national character,
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da ni geografija ni nacionalni karakter,
06:42
popular explanations for this kind of thing,
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što su popularna objašnjenja za ovakve stvari,
06:44
are really significant.
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nisu zapravo važni.
06:47
It's the ideas.
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Važne su ideje.
06:49
It's the institutions.
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Institucije.
06:51
This must be true
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Ovo je sigurno istina
06:53
because a Scotsman said it.
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jer je tako rekao jedan Škot.
06:55
And I think I'm the only Scotsman here at the Edinburgh TED.
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A mislim da sam jedini Škot ovdje na TED-u u Edinburghu.
06:58
So let me just explain to you
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Dozvolite da vam objasnim
07:00
that the smartest man ever was a Scotsman.
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da je najpametniji čovjek na svijetu bio Škot.
07:03
He was Adam Smith --
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To je bio Adam Smith --
07:05
not Billy Connolly, not Sean Connery --
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ne Billy Connolly, ni Sean Connery,
07:08
though he is very smart indeed.
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iako je on zaista vrlo pametan.
07:11
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
07:14
Smith -- and I want you to go
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Smith -- i želim da odete
07:16
and bow down before his statue in the Royal Mile;
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i poklonite se pred njegovim kipom na Royal Mileu,
07:19
it's a wonderful statue --
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kip je prekrasan --
07:21
Smith, in the "Wealth of Nations"
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Smith je u knjizi "Bogatstvo naroda",
07:23
published in 1776 --
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objavljenoj 1776. godine --
07:25
that's the most important thing that happened that year ...
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to je najvažnija stvar koja se dogodila te godine...
07:28
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
07:31
You bet.
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Naravno.
07:34
There was a little local difficulty in some of our minor colonies, but ...
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Bio je nekih lokalnih problema u nekim našim manjim kolonijama, ali...
07:37
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
07:39
"China seems to have been long stationary,
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"Čini se da je Kina već dugo stacionarna
07:41
and probably long ago acquired that full complement of riches
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i vjerojatno je odavno stekla onu količinu bogatstva
07:44
which is consistent with the nature of its laws and institutions.
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koja je u skladu s prirodom njenih zakona i institucija.
07:48
But this complement may be much inferior
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Ali ta je količina možda manja od one
07:50
to what, with other laws and institutions,
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koju bi, uz druge zakone i institucije,
07:53
the nature of its soil, climate, and situation
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priroda kineske zemlje, klime i situacije
07:55
might admit of."
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mogla omogućiti."
07:57
That is so right and so cool.
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Ovo je tako točno i tako cool.
07:59
And he said it such a long time ago.
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A on je to rekao vrlo davno.
08:02
But you know, this is a TED audience,
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Ali dobro, ovo je publika na TED-u,
08:05
and if I keep talking about institutions,
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i ako nastavim govoriti o institucijama,
08:07
you're going to turn off.
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nećete me više slušati.
08:09
So I'm going to translate this into language that you can understand.
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Zato ću to prevesti na jezik koji razumijete.
08:13
Let's call them the killer apps.
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Nazvat ćemo ih ubojitim aplikacijama.
08:17
I want to explain to you that there were six killer apps
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Želim vam objasniti da postoji šest ubojitih aplikacija
08:20
that set the West apart from the rest.
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koje su izdvojile zapad od ostatka svijeta.
08:23
And they're kind of like the apps on your phone,
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Slične su aplikacijama na vašem telefonu,
08:25
in the sense that they look quite simple.
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u smislu da izgledaju vrlo jednostavno.
08:27
They're just icons; you click on them.
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One su samo ikonice, samo kliknete na njih.
08:29
But behind the icon, there's complex code.
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No, iza ikonica nalazi se složen kod.
08:32
It's the same with institutions.
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Isto je s institucijama.
08:34
There are six
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Postoji ih šest
08:36
which I think explain the Great Divergence.
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za koje mislim da objašnjavaju Veliku divergenciju.
08:39
One, competition.
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Prva je konkurencija.
08:41
Two, the scientific revolution.
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Druga je znanstvena revolucija.
08:43
Three, property rights.
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Treća, imovinska prava.
08:45
Four, modern medicine.
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Četvrta je moderna medicina.
08:47
Five, the consumer society.
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Peta je potrošačko društvo.
08:49
And six, the work ethic.
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I šesta je radna etika.
08:51
You can play a game and try and think of one I've missed at,
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Možete pokušati vidjeti jesam li koju propustio
08:53
or try and boil it down to just four,
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ili ih možete pokušati svesti na samo četiri,
08:56
but you'll lose.
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ali nećete uspjeti.
08:58
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
09:00
Let me very briefly tell you what I mean by this,
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Dopustite da ukratko objasnim na što mislim.
09:03
synthesizing the work of many economic historians
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Objedinit ću rad mnogih povijesničara ekonomije
09:06
in the process.
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dok to činim.
09:08
Competition means,
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Konkurencija znači
09:10
not only were there a hundred different political units in Europe in 1500,
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da ne samo da su u Europi 1500. godine postojale stotine političkih jedinica,
09:12
but within each of these units,
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već i da je u samim jedinicama
09:14
there was competition between corporations as well as sovereigns.
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bilo konkurencije među korporacijama i vladarima.
09:18
The ancestor of the modern corporation, the City of London Corporation,
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Prethodnica modernih korporacija, Korporacija grada Londona,
09:21
existed in the 12th century.
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postojala je u 12. stoljeću.
09:23
Nothing like this existed in China,
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Ništa slično nije postojalo u Kini,
09:25
where there was one monolithic state
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gdje je bila samo jedna jedinstvena država
09:27
covering a fifth of humanity,
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koja je obuhvaćala petinu čovječanstva
09:29
and anyone with any ambition
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i svatko tko je imao ikakvu ambiciju
09:31
had to pass one standardized examination,
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morao je položiti standardizirani test
09:33
which took three days and was very difficult
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koji je trajao tri dana i bio vrlo težak.
09:35
and involved memorizing vast numbers of characters
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Uključivao je pamćenje ogromnog broj znakova
09:38
and very complex Confucian essay writing.
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i pisanje vrlo složenih konfucijanskih eseja.
09:42
The scientific revolution was different
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Znanstvena se revolucija razlikovala
09:45
from the science that had been achieved in the Oriental world
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od znanosti koje je dostignuta u orijentalnom svijetu
09:48
in a number of crucial ways,
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na mnogo značajnih načina,
09:50
the most important being
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od kojih je najvažniji bio
09:52
that, through the experimental method,
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da je putem eksperimentalne metode
09:54
it gave men control over nature in a way that had not been possible before.
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ljudima nad prirodom dala kontrolu kakva ranije nije bila moguća.
09:57
Example: Benjamin Robins's extraordinary application
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Primjer: Benjamin Robins izvršio je nevjerojatnu primjenu
10:01
of Newtonian physics to ballistics.
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Newtonove fizike na balistiku.
10:04
Once you do that,
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Kad to učinite,
10:06
your artillery becomes accurate.
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vaša artiljerija postaje precizna.
10:09
Think of what that means.
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Razmislite što to znači.
10:11
That really was a killer application.
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To je zaista bila ubojita aplikacija.
10:13
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
10:16
Meanwhile, there's no scientific revolution anywhere else.
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U isto vrijeme, nigdje se drugdje ne događa znanstvena revolucija.
10:19
The Ottoman Empire's not that far from Europe,
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Osmansko carstvo nije toliko daleko od Europe,
10:21
but there's no scientific revolution there.
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ali nema znanstvenu revoluciju.
10:23
In fact, they demolish Taqi al-Din's observatory,
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Zapravo, uništili su opservatorij Taqija al-Dina
10:26
because it's considered blasphemous
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jer su smatrali bogohuljenjem
10:28
to inquire into the mind of God.
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propitkivanje Božjeg uma.
10:31
Property rights: It's not the democracy, folks;
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Imovinska prava: nije u pitanju demokracija, ljudi,
10:34
it's having the rule of law based on private property rights.
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već postojanje pravne države zasnovane na imovinskim pravima.
10:37
That's what makes the difference
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To je ono što razlikuje
10:39
between North America and South America.
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Sjevernu i Južnu Ameriku.
10:41
You could turn up in North America
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Možete se pojaviti u Sjevornoj Americi,
10:43
having signed a deed of indenture
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gdje ste potpisali ugovor
10:45
saying, "I'll work for nothing for five years.
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u kojem stoji: "Radit ću pet godina bez naknade,
10:47
You just have to feed me."
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samo za hranu."
10:49
But at the end of it, you've got a hundred acres of land.
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Ali na kraju ćete dobiti 100 jutara zemlje.
10:52
That's the land grant
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Ovo je darovnica za zemljište
10:54
on the bottom half of the slide.
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na donjoj polovici slajda.
10:56
That's not possible in Latin America
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To nije moguće u Latinskoj Americi
10:59
where land is held onto
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gdje zemlju drži
11:01
by a tiny elite descended from the conquistadors.
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malobrojna elita koja potječe od konkvistadora.
11:03
And you can see here the huge divergence
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Ovdje možete vidjeti ogromnu divergenciju
11:05
that happens in property ownership between North and South.
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kod vlasništva nekretnina na sjeveru i jugu.
11:08
Most people in rural North America
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Većina ljudi iz ruralnog dijela Sjeverne Amerike
11:10
owned some land by 1900.
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posjedovala je nešto zemlje do 1900. godine.
11:13
Hardly anyone in South America did.
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U Južnoj Americi gotovo nitko nije.
11:15
That's another killer app.
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To je još jedna ubojita aplikacija.
11:18
Modern medicine in the late 19th century
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Moderna medicina je krajem 19. stoljeća
11:20
began to make major breakthroughs
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počela dolaziti do velikih otkrića
11:22
against the infectious diseases that killed a lot of people.
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u borbi protiv zaraznih bolesti koje su ubijale mnogo ljudi.
11:24
And this was another killer app --
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To je bila još jedna ubojita aplikacija --
11:26
the very opposite of a killer,
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ali baš suprotno od ubojite,
11:28
because it doubled, and then more than doubled, human life expectancy.
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jer je udvostručila, a potom i više nego udvostručila životni vijek čovjeka.
11:31
It even did that
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To je učinila čak i
11:33
in the European empires.
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u europskim imperijima.
11:35
Even in places like Senegal,
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Čak i u mjestima poput Senegala,
11:37
beginning in the early 20th century,
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od početka 20. stoljeća,
11:39
there were major breakthroughs in public health,
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velik je napredak učinjen u javnom zdravstvu
11:41
and life expectancy began to rise.
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i životni vijek počeo je rasti.
11:43
It doesn't rise any faster
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Ništa brže nije rastao
11:45
after these countries become independent.
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nakon što su ove zemlje dobile nezavisnost.
11:47
The empires weren't all bad.
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Imperiji nisu bili baš toliko loši.
11:49
The consumer society is what you need
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Potrebno vam je potrošačko društvo
11:51
for the Industrial Revolution to have a point.
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da bi industrijska revolucija imala svrhu.
11:54
You need people to want to wear tons of clothes.
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Potrebni su ljudi koji kupuju gomilu odjeće.
11:56
You've all bought an article of clothing in the last month;
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Svi ste kupili komad odjeće u posljednjih mjesec dana.
11:58
I guarantee it.
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Garantiram.
12:00
That's the consumer society,
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To je potrošačko društvo
12:02
and it propels economic growth
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i ono stimulira gospodarski rast
12:04
more than even technological change itself.
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više nego tehnološke promjene.
12:07
Japan was the first non-Western society
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Japan je bio prvo društvo izvan zapada
12:09
to embrace it.
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koje je to prihvatilo.
12:11
The alternative,
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Alternativa,
12:13
which was proposed by Mahatma Gandhi,
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koju je predlagao Mahatma Gandhi,
12:15
was to institutionalize and make poverty permanent.
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bila je trajna institucionalizacija siromaštva.
12:18
Very few Indians today
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Danas vrlo malo Indijaca
12:20
wish that India had gone down
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misli da je trebalo krenuti
12:22
Mahatma Gandhi's road.
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putem Mahatme Gandhija.
12:25
Finally, the work ethic.
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Na kraju, radna etika.
12:27
Max Weber thought that was peculiarly Protestant.
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Max Weber je mislio da je ovo specifično za protestante.
12:30
He was wrong.
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Bio je u krivu.
12:32
Any culture can get the work ethic
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Svaka kultura može steći radnu etiku
12:34
if the institutions are there
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ako postoje institucije
12:36
to create the incentive to work.
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koje će stvoriti poticaj za rad.
12:38
We know this
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Ovo znamo
12:40
because today the work ethic
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jer danas radna etika
12:42
is no longer a Protestant, Western phenomenon.
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nije više samo fenomen protestanata sa zapada.
12:45
In fact, the West has lost its work ethic.
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Zapravo, zapad je izgubio radnu etiku.
12:48
Today, the average Korean
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Danas prosječan Korejac
12:51
works a thousand hours more a year
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godišnje radi 1000 sati više
12:55
than the average German --
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od prosječnog Nijemca --
12:57
a thousand.
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tisuću.
12:59
And this is part
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To je dio
13:01
of a really extraordinary phenomenon,
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vrlo neobičnog fenomena,
13:04
and that is the end of the Great Divergence.
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a to je kraj Velike divergencije.
13:07
Who's got the work ethic now?
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Tko sad ima radnu etiku?
13:09
Take a look at mathematical attainment
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Pogledajte rezultate iz matematike
13:12
by 15 year-olds.
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kod 15-godišnjaci.
13:14
At the top of the international league table
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Na vrhu međunarodne tablice,
13:16
according to the latest PISA study,
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prema najnovijem istraživanju PISA,
13:19
is the Shanghai district of China.
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nalazi se šangajska oblast u Kini.
13:21
The gap between Shanghai
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Razlika između Šangaja
13:23
and the United Kingdom and the United States
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i Ujedinjenog Kraljevstva i SAD-a
13:26
is as big as the gap between the U.K. and the U.S.
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velika je poput razlike između Ujedinjenog Kraljevstva i SAD-a
13:29
and Albania and Tunisia.
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naspram Albanije i Tunisa.
13:32
You probably assume
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Vjerovatno pretpostavljate
13:34
that because the iPhone was designed in California
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da zato što je iPhone dizajniran u Kaliforniji,
13:36
but assembled in China
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ali sklopljen u Kini
13:38
that the West still leads in terms of technological innovation.
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da zapad i dalje vodi u tehnološkim inovacijama.
13:41
You're wrong.
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U krivu ste.
13:43
In terms of patents,
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Po pitanju patenata,
13:45
there's no question that the East is ahead.
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nema sumnje da istok vodi.
13:47
Not only has Japan been ahead for some time,
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Ne samo da je Japan već neko vrijeme na čelu,
13:50
South Korea has gone into third place,
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već je Južna Koreja dostigla treće mjesto,
13:53
and China is just about to overtake Germany.
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a Kina samo što nije prestigla Njemačku.
13:56
Why?
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Zašto?
13:58
Because the killer apps can be downloaded.
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Jer se ubojite aplikacije mogu preuzeti.
14:00
It's open source.
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One su dostupne svima.
14:02
Any society can adopt these institutions,
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Svako društvo može usvojiti ove institucije,
14:04
and when they do,
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a kad to učine,
14:06
they achieve what the West achieved after 1500 --
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postižu ono što je zapad uspio nakon 1500. godine,
14:10
only faster.
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samo brže.
14:12
This is the Great Reconvergence,
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Ovo je Velika rekonvergencija,
14:14
and it's the biggest story of your lifetime.
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i najveća priča vašeg života.
14:18
Because it's on your watch that this is happening.
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Jer ste njeni svjedoci.
14:21
It's our generation
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Naša generacija je ta
14:23
that is witnessing the end of Western predominance.
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koja će biti svjedok kraja dominacije zapada.
14:25
The average American used to be more than 20 times richer
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Prosječni Amerikanac bio je više od 20 puta bogatiji
14:27
than the average Chinese.
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od prosječnog Kineza.
14:29
Now it's just five times,
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Sada je samo 5 puta,
14:31
and soon it will be 2.5 times.
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a uskoro će biti 2,5 puta.
14:33
So I want to end with three questions
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Zato želim završiti s tri pitanja
14:36
for the future billions,
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za buduće milijarde,
14:38
just ahead of 2016,
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blizu 2016. godine,
14:41
when the United States will lose its place
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kad SAD prepusti mjesto
14:43
as number one economy to China.
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vodećeg gospodarstva Kini.
14:46
The first is, can you delete these apps,
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Prvo: Mogu li se ove aplikacije izbrisati
14:50
and are we in the process of doing so
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i jesmo li trenutno u tom procesu
14:52
in the Western world?
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na zapadu?
14:54
The second question is,
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Drugo pitanje je
14:56
does the sequencing of the download matter?
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je li redoslijed preuzimanja važan?
15:00
And could Africa get that sequencing wrong?
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I bi li Afrika mogla pogriješiti u tom redoslijedu?
15:05
One obvious implication of modern economic history
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Očigledna implikacija povijesti moderne ekonomije
15:07
is that it's quite hard to transition to democracy
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jest da je vrlo teško prijeći u demokraciju
15:10
before you've established
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prije nego što ste ustanovili
15:12
secure private property rights.
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pouzdane zakone o privatnom vlasništvu.
15:15
Warning: that may not work.
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Upozorenje: to možda neće funkcionirati.
15:18
And third, can China do without
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I treće, može li Kina
15:20
killer app number three?
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bez treće ubojite aplikacije?
15:22
That's the one that John Locke systematized
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To je pitanje koje je John Locke sistematizirao
15:26
when he said that freedom was rooted in private property rights
365
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kad je rekao da je sloboda ukorijenjena u pravima privatnog vlasništva
15:30
and the protection of law.
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i zaštiti zakona.
15:32
That's the basis
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Ovo je osnova
15:34
for the Western model
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zapadnog modela
15:36
of representative government.
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predstavničke vlade.
15:39
Now this picture shows the demolition
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Ova slika pokazuje uništavanje studija
15:41
of the Chinese artist Ai Weiwei's studio
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kineskog umjetnika Aija Weiweija
15:44
in Shanghai earlier this year.
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u Šangaju ranije ove godine.
15:46
He's now free again,
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Sad je ponovno slobodan,
15:48
having been detained, as you know, for some time.
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nakon privremenog pritvora, kao što znate.
15:50
But I don't think his studio has been rebuilt.
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Ali mislim da njegov studio nije obnovljen.
15:55
Winston Churchill once defined civilization
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Winston Churchill je jednom definirao civilizaciju
15:59
in a lecture he gave in the fateful year of 1938.
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na predavanju koje je održao sudbonosne 1938. godine.
16:03
And I think these words really nail it:
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Mislim da je ovim riječima uspio pogoditi srž:
16:06
"It means a society based upon the opinion of civilians.
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"To znači društvo zasnovano na mišljenju civila.
16:10
It means that violence, the rule of warriors and despotic chiefs,
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Znači da su nasilje, vladavina ratnika i despotskih vođa,
16:13
the conditions of camps and warfare, of riot and tyranny,
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uvjeti logora i rata, pobune i tiranije
16:16
give place to parliaments where laws are made,
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zamijenjeni parlamentom u kojemu nastaju zakoni
16:19
and independent courts of justice
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i nezavisnim sudovima
16:21
in which over long periods those laws are maintained.
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u kojima se ti zakoni drugo primjenjuju.
16:24
That is civilization --
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To je civilizacija --
16:26
and in its soil grow continually
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i na njenom tlu neprekino rastu
16:28
freedom, comfort and culture,"
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sloboda, utjeha i kultura",
16:31
what all TEDsters care about most.
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ono do čega je TED-ovcima najviše stalo,
16:35
"When civilization reigns in any country,
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"Kad civilizacija vlada zemljom,
16:38
a wider and less harassed life
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širi i smireniji život
16:41
is afforded to the masses of the people."
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omogućen je masama."
16:44
That's so true.
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To je istina.
16:48
I don't think the decline of Western civilization
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Ne mislim da je propast zapadne civilizacije
16:51
is inevitable,
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neizbježna
16:53
because I don't think history operates
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jer ne mislim da povijest funkcionira
16:56
in this kind of life-cycle model,
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po ovakvom životnom ciklusu,
16:58
beautifully illustrated by Thomas Cole's
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koji je predivno ilustrirao Thomas Cole
17:00
"Course of Empire" paintings.
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na svojim slikama "Put imperija".
17:03
That's not the way history works.
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Povijest ne funkcionira tako.
17:06
That's not the way the West rose,
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To nije način na koji se zapad uzdigao
17:08
and I don't think it's the way the West will fall.
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i ne mislim da će tako pasti.
17:11
The West may collapse very suddenly.
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Zapad može pasti vrlo iznenadno.
17:14
Complex civilizations do that,
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To se događa složenim civilizacijama
17:17
because they operate, most of the time,
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jer uglavnom funkcioniraju
17:19
on the edge of chaos.
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na rubu kaosa.
17:21
That's one of the most profound insights
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To je jedan od najdubljih uvida
17:24
to come out of the historical study of complex institutions
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proteklih iz povijesnih studija složenih institucija
17:27
like civilizations.
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poput civilizacija.
17:30
No, we may hang on,
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Ipak se možemo održati,
17:32
despite the huge burdens of debt that we've accumulated,
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usprkos ogromnom teretu duga koji smo nagomilali,
17:36
despite the evidence that we've lost our work ethic
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usprskos dokazu da smo izgubili radnu etiku
17:39
and other parts of our historical mojo.
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i drugih povijesnih talismana.
17:42
But one thing is for sure,
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No, jedno je sigurno,
17:44
the Great Divergence
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Velika divergencija
17:46
is over, folks.
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došla je do kraja, ljudi.
17:48
Thanks very much.
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Veliko hvala.
17:50
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
18:15
Bruno Giussani: Niall,
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Bruno Giussani: Niall,
18:17
I am just curious
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zaima me
18:19
about your take on the other region of the world that's booming,
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tvoje mišljenje o drugoj regiji svijeta koja cvijeta,
18:22
which is Latin America.
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a to je Latinska Amerika.
18:25
What's your view on that?
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Što misliš o tome?
18:28
Niall Ferguson: Well I really am not just talking
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Niall Ferguson: Ja zapravo ne govorim samo
18:30
about the rise of the East;
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o usponu istoka.
18:32
I'm talking about the rise of the Rest,
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Govorim o usponu Ostalih, svega što nije zapad,
18:34
and that includes South America.
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što uključuje i Južnu Ameriku.
18:36
I once asked one of my colleagues at Harvard,
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Jednom sam pitao kolegu s Harvarda:
18:38
"Hey, is South America part of the West?"
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"Ej, je li Južna Amerika dio Zapada?"
18:40
He was an expert in Latin American history.
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On je bio stručnjak za povijest Latinske Amerike.
18:42
He said, "I don't know; I'll have to think about that."
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Rekao je: "Ne znam. Morat ću razmisliti o tome."
18:44
That tells you something really important.
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To nam govori nešto zaista važno.
18:46
I think if you look at what is happening in Brazil in particular,
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Mislim da, ako pogledate što se događa posebno u Brazilu,
18:48
but also Chile,
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ali i Čileu,
18:50
which was in many ways the one that led the way
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koji je po mnogo čemu predvodio put
18:53
in transforming the institutions of economic life,
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u transformiranju ekonomskih institucija,
18:56
there's a very bright future indeed.
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čeka ih svijetla budućnost.
18:59
So my story really is
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Tako da je moja priča zapravo
19:01
as much about that convergence in the Americas
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isto toliko o konvergenciji u Amerikama
19:04
as it's a convergence story in Eurasia.
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koliko o konvergenciji u Euroaziji.
19:06
BG: And there is this impression
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BG: I stječe se dojam
19:08
that North America and Europe
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da Sjeverna Amerika i Europa
19:10
are not really paying attention
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baš i ne obraćaju pažnju
19:12
to these trends.
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na ove trendove.
19:14
Mostly they're worried about each other.
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Uglavnom se bave jedni drugima.
19:17
The Americans think that the European model is going to crumble tomorrow.
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Amerikanci misle da će europski model sutra propasti.
19:20
The Europeans think that the American budget is going to explode tomorrow.
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Europljani misle da će američki proračun sutra eksplodirati.
19:23
And that's all we seem to be caring about recently.
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I čini se da je to jedino što ih zanima u posljednje vrijeme.
19:26
NF: I think the fiscal crisis
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NF: Mislim da je fiskalna kriza
19:28
that we see in the developed World right now -- both sides of the Atlantic --
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koju danas vidimo u razvijenom svijetu, s obje strane Atlantika,
19:31
is essentially the same thing
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u biti ista stvar,
19:33
taking different forms
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samo u drugom obliku,
19:35
in terms of political culture.
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u smislu političke kulture.
19:37
And it's a crisis that has its structural facet --
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To je kriza koja ima svoj strukturni aspekt --
19:41
it's partly to do with demographics.
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to dijelom ima veze s demografijom.
19:43
But it's also, of course, to do with the massive crisis
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Ali, naravno, ima veze i s velikom krizom
19:46
that followed excessive leverage,
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koja je pratila pretjeranu moć,
19:48
excessive borrowing in the private sector.
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pretjerane pozajmice u privatnom sektoru.
19:50
That crisis,
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Ta kriza,
19:52
which has been the focus of so much attention, including by me,
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koja je privukla toliko pažnje, uključujući moju,
19:55
I think is an epiphenomenon.
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mislim da je površni fenomen.
19:57
The financial crisis is really a relatively small historic phenomenon,
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Financijska kriza relativno je malen povijesni fenomen,
20:00
which has just accelerated
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koje je samo ubrzao
20:02
this huge shift,
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ovu veliku promjenu,
20:04
which ends half a millennium of Western ascendancy.
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kojom se završava 500 godina dominacije zapada.
20:06
I think that's its real importance.
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Mislim da je u tome njezina prava važnost.
20:08
BG: Niall, thank you. (NF: Thank you very much, Bruno.)
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BG: Niall, hvala ti. (NF: Hvala, Bruno)
20:10
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Niall Ferguson - HistorianHistory is a curious thing, and Niall Ferguson investigates not only what happened but why. (Hint: Politics and money explain a lot.)
Why you should listen
Niall Ferguson teaches history and business administration at Harvard and is a senior research fellow at several other universities, including Oxford. His books chronicle a wide range of political and socio-economic events; he has written about everything from German politics during the era of inflation to a financial history of the world. He’s now working on a biography of former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.
Ferguson is a prolific and often controversial commentator on contemporary politics and economics. He frequently writes, reviews, and hosts for the British and American press. His latest book and TV series, Civilization: The West and the Rest, aims to help 21st-century audiences understand the past and the present. In it, he asks how, since the 1500s, Western nations have surpassed their Eastern counterparts and came to dominate the world (his answer: thanks to six “killer apps”: science, medicine, protestant work ethic, competition, property rights, consumer society). And he wonders whether that domination is now threatened by the rise of Asia. His theories have drawn criticism and prompted discussions, which he says was his intent. “It’s designed to be slightly annoying, so that you talk about it,” he told The Observer.
He says: "If a majority of people subscribe to a particular view, it pays to question it. It pays to think: maybe this is wrong."
Niall Ferguson | Speaker | TED.com