TEDGlobal 2011
Niall Ferguson: The 6 killer apps of prosperity
Najl Feguson: 6 osnovnih aplikacija blagostanja
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Proteklih nekoliko vekova, zapadne kulture su uspešno stvarale sebi opšte blagostanje. Istoričar Najl Ferguson postavlja pitanje: "Zašto zapad uspeva u tome, a ostali manje?" On smatra da je u pitanju 6 velikih ideja zapadne kulture -- nazovimo ih 6 osnovnih aplikacija -- koje promovišu bogatstvo, stabilnost i inovaciju. U ovom veku, kaže Najl, ove aplikacije su dostupne svima.
Niall Ferguson - Historian
History is a curious thing, and Niall Ferguson investigates not only what happened but why. (Hint: Politics and money explain a lot.) Full bio
History is a curious thing, and Niall Ferguson investigates not only what happened but why. (Hint: Politics and money explain a lot.) Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Let's talk about billions.
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Hajde da govorimo o milijardama.
00:18
Let's talk about
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Hajde da govorimo
00:21
past and future billions.
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o prošlim i budućim milijardama.
00:24
We know
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Znamo
00:26
that about 106 billion people
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da je oko 106 milijardi ljudi
00:29
have ever lived.
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živelo na zemlji.
00:31
And we know that most of them are dead.
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Znamo i da je većina njih umrla.
00:34
And we also know
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Takođe znamo
00:36
that most of them live or lived in Asia.
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da je većina živela ili živi u Aziji.
00:38
And we also know
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Znamo takođe
00:40
that most of them were or are very poor --
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da je većina njih bila ili jeste vrlo siromašna
00:44
did not live for very long.
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i da nisu dugo živeli.
00:47
Let's talk about billions.
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Hajde da govorimo o milijardama.
00:50
Let's talk about
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Da pričamo o
00:52
the 195,000 billion dollars of wealth
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195.000 milijardi dolara bogatstva
00:56
in the world today.
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koje danas postoji na svetu.
00:59
We know that most of that wealth
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Znamo da je većina tog bogatstva
01:02
was made after the year 1800.
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nastala posle 1800.
01:05
And we know that most of it
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Znamo i da je većina
01:08
is currently owned
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danas u vlasništvu
01:10
by people we might call Westerners:
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ljudi koje nazivamo zapadnjacima:
01:14
Europeans, North Americans, Australasians.
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Evropljani, Amerikanci, Australijanci, Novozelanđani.
01:18
19 percent of the world's population today,
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Iako čine 19% svetske populacije,
01:21
Westerners own two-thirds of its wealth.
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Zapadnjaci drže dve trećine svetskog bogatstva.
01:25
Economic historians
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Istoričari ekonomije
01:27
call this "The Great Divergence."
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ovo nazivaju "Velika divergencija".
01:30
And this slide here
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I ovaj slajd ovde
01:32
is the best simplification
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je najjednostavniji prikaz
01:34
of the Great Divergence story
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priče o Velikoj divergenciji
01:36
I can offer you.
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koji vam mogu pokazati.
01:38
It's basically two ratios
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U suštini je čine dva odnosa
01:40
of per capita GDP,
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Bruto-domaćeg proizvoda (BDP)
01:42
per capita gross domestic product,
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po stanovniku,
01:45
so average income.
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odnosno, prosečnog prihoda.
01:47
One, the red line,
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Crvena linija predstavlja
01:49
is the ratio of British to Indian
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odnos britanskog i indijskog
01:51
per capita income.
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prihoda po stanovniku.
01:53
And the blue line
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Plava linija predstavlja
01:55
is the ratio of American to Chinese.
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odnos Amerike i Kine.
01:58
And this chart goes back to 1500.
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Ovaj grafikon ide unazad do 1500. godine.
02:00
And you can see here
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Ovde možete videti
02:02
that there's an exponential Great Divergence.
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da postoji eksponencijala Velike divergencije.
02:05
They start off pretty close together.
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Počinju na sličnoj razini.
02:07
In fact, in 1500,
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Zapravo, 1500. godine,
02:09
the average Chinese was richer than the average North American.
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prosečan Kinez je bio bogatiji od prosečnog Amerikanca i Kanađanina.
02:13
When you get to the 1970s,
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Kada dođete do 1970-ih,
02:16
which is where this chart ends,
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gde je kraj grafikonu,
02:18
the average Briton is more than 10 times richer
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prosečan Britanac je više od 10 puta bogatiji
02:20
than the average Indian.
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od prosečnog Indijca.
02:22
And that's allowing
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Ovo uključuje
02:24
for differences in the cost of living.
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i razlike u troškovima života.
02:26
It's based on purchasing power parity.
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Bazira se na paritetu kupovne moći.
02:29
The average American
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Prosečan Amerikanac
02:31
is nearly 20 times richer
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je skoro 20 puta bogatiji
02:33
than the average Chinese
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od prosečnog Kineza
02:35
by the 1970s.
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do 1970-ih.
02:37
So why?
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Ali zašto?
02:40
This wasn't just an economic story.
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Ovo nije bila samo priča o ekonomiji.
02:43
If you take the 10 countries
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Ako uzmete 10 zemalja
02:45
that went on to become
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koje su kasnije postale
02:48
the Western empires,
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zapadne imperije,
02:50
in 1500 they were really quite tiny --
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1500. su one bile prilično male.
02:53
five percent of the world's land surface,
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Držale su 5% svetske kopnene površine,
02:55
16 percent of its population,
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16% populacije
02:57
maybe 20 percent of its income.
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i možda 20% svetskog prihoda.
03:00
By 1913,
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Već 1913.
03:02
these 10 countries, plus the United States,
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ovih 10 zemalja, plus SAD,
03:05
controlled vast global empires --
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držale su ogromne globalne imperije --
03:08
58 percent of the world's territory,
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58% svetske teritorije,
03:10
about the same percentage of its population,
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skoro isti procenat populacije
03:13
and a really huge, nearly three-quarters share
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i ogroman udeo, skoro ¾,
03:16
of global economic output.
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svetske ekonomske proizvodnje.
03:18
And notice, most of that went to the motherland,
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Većina toga je odlazila u matice,
03:22
to the imperial metropoles,
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u metropole imperija,
03:24
not to their colonial possessions.
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ne u kolonijalne posede.
03:28
Now you can't just blame this on imperialism --
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Za ovo ne možete kriviti samo imperijalizam,
03:30
though many people have tried to do so --
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iako su mnogi pokušali,
03:33
for two reasons.
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i to iz dva razloga.
03:36
One, empire was the least original thing
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Prvo, imperije nikako nisu nov izum
03:39
that the West did after 1500.
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koji je zapad smislio posle 1500.
03:42
Everybody did empire.
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Svi su pravili imperije.
03:45
They beat preexisting Oriental empires
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Nadmašili su ranije orijentalne imperije
03:48
like the Mughals and the Ottomans.
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poput mogulske i otomanske.
03:50
So it really doesn't look like empire is a great explanation
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Imperije, dakle, i nisu sjajno objašnjenje
03:53
for the Great Divergence.
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za Veliku divergenciju.
03:55
In any case, as you may remember,
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Setite se
03:57
the Great Divergence reaches its zenith in the 1970s,
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da Velika divergencija dostiže vrhunac 1970-ih,
04:00
some considerable time after decolonization.
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dosta nakon dekolonizacija.
04:04
This is not a new question.
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Ovo pitanje nije novo.
04:06
Samuel Johnson,
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Semjuel Džonson,
04:08
the great lexicographer,
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veliki leksikograf,
04:10
[posed] it through his character Rasselas
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govorio je o ovom kroz lik Raselasa
04:13
in his novel "Rasselas, Prince of Abissinia,"
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u svom romanu "Raselas, princ Abisinije",
04:16
published in 1759.
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štampane 1759.
04:19
"By what means are the Europeans thus powerful;
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"Kojim sredstvima su Evropljani onda moćni;
04:22
or why, since they can so easily visit Asia and Africa
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zašto, ako oni tako lako mogu doći u Aziju i Afriku
04:25
for trade or conquest,
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radi trgovine ili osvajanja,
04:28
cannot the Asiaticks and Africans
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ne mogu Azijati i Afrikanci
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invade their coasts,
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napasti njihove obale,
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plant colonies in their ports,
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razviti kolonije u njihovim lukama
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and give laws to their natural princes?
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i nametnuti zakone njihovim prirodnim prinčevima?
04:37
The same wind that carries them back
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Zar ne bi isti vetar koji njih vraća,
04:40
would bring us thither?"
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nas odveo do njih?"
04:42
That's a great question.
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Ovo je odlično pitanje.
04:44
And you know what,
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I znate šta,
04:46
it was also being asked at roughly the same time
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skoro su ga istovremeno postavljali
04:48
by the Resterners -- by the people in the rest of the world --
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i Ostali - oni koji nisu sa zapada,
04:51
like Ibrahim Muteferrika,
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poput Ibrahima Muteferika,
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an Ottoman official,
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otomanskog zvaničnika
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the man who introduced printing, very belatedly,
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koji je sa velikim zakašnjenjem doveo štampu
04:59
to the Ottoman Empire --
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u Otomansko carstvo.
05:01
who said in a book published in 1731,
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U knjizi iz 1731. on pita:
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"Why do Christian nations which were so weak in the past
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"Zašto hrišćanske nacije koje su bile tako slabe u prošlosti
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compared with Muslim nations
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u poređenju sa muslimanskim
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begin to dominate so many lands in modern times
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počinju da dominiraju tolikim zemljama u moderno doba,
05:12
and even defeat the once victorious Ottoman armies?"
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pa čak i pobeđuju nekada slavne otomanske armije?"
05:16
Unlike Rasselas,
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Za razliku od Raselasa,
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Muteferrika had an answer to that question,
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Muteferika je imao odgovor na to pitanje
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which was correct.
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i bio je u pravu.
05:23
He said it was "because they have laws and rules
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Rekao je da je to "zbog toga što imaju zakone i pravila
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invented by reason."
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koje je izmislio razum."
05:31
It's not geography.
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To nije geografija.
05:34
You may think we can explain the Great Divergence
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Možda mislite da Veliku divergenciju možemo objasniti
05:36
in terms of geography.
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u okvirima geografije.
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We know that's wrong,
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Znamo da to je to pogrešno
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because we conducted two great natural experiments in the 20th century
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jer smo napravili dva velika prirodna eksperimenta u 20. veku
05:42
to see if geography mattered more than institutions.
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da vidimo da li je geografija važnija od institucija.
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We took all the Germans,
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Uzeli smo sve Nemce,
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we divided them roughly in two,
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podelili ih na otprilike pola,
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and we gave the ones in the East communism,
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i onima na istoku dali komunizam,
05:52
and you see the result.
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i vidite rezultat.
05:55
Within an incredibly short period of time,
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Za neverovatno kratko vreme
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people living in the German Democratic Republic
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ljudi iz Nemačke Demokratske Republike,
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produced Trabants, the Trabbi,
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proizveli su Trabanta, tzv. Trabija,
06:02
one of the world's worst ever cars,
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jednog od najgorih automobila ikada,
06:05
while people in the West produced the Mercedes Benz.
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dok su oni na zapadu proizveli Mercedes-Benc.
06:08
If you still don't believe me,
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Ako mi i dalje ne verujete,
06:10
we conducted the experiment also in the Korean Peninsula.
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eksperiment smo izvršili i na Korejskom poluostrvu.
06:12
And we decided we'd take Koreans
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Odlučili smo da uzmemo Korejce
06:14
in roughly the same geographical place
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sa otprilike istog geografskog područja
06:16
with, notice, the same basic traditional culture,
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sa istom osnovnom tradicionalnom kulturom,
06:20
and we divided them in two, and we gave the Northerners communism.
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podelili ih na dve grupe, i dali onima sa severa komunizam.
06:23
And the result is an even bigger divergence
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Rezultat je čak veća divergencija
06:26
in a very short space of time
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u još kraćem vremenskom periodu
06:28
than happened in Germany.
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nego u Nemačkoj.
06:30
Not a big divergence in terms of uniform design for border guards admittedly,
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Nisu se toliko razlikovali u dizajnu uniformi za graničnike,
06:34
but in almost every other respect,
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ali u skoro u svakom drugom smislu,
06:36
it's a huge divergence.
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divergencija je ogromna.
06:38
Which leads me to think
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Što me dovodi do zaključka
06:40
that neither geography nor national character,
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da niti geografija niti nacionalni karakter,
06:42
popular explanations for this kind of thing,
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popularna objašnjenja za ovakve stvari,
06:44
are really significant.
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nisu zapravo važni.
06:47
It's the ideas.
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Važne su ideje.
06:49
It's the institutions.
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Institucije.
06:51
This must be true
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Ovo je sigurno istina
06:53
because a Scotsman said it.
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jer je tako rekao jedan Škot.
06:55
And I think I'm the only Scotsman here at the Edinburgh TED.
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I mislim da sam jedini Škot ovde na TED-u u Edinburgu.
06:58
So let me just explain to you
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Dozvolite da objasnim
07:00
that the smartest man ever was a Scotsman.
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da je najpametniji čovek na svetu bio Škot.
07:03
He was Adam Smith --
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To je bio Adam Smit --
07:05
not Billy Connolly, not Sean Connery --
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ne Bili Konoli, niti Šon Koneri --
07:08
though he is very smart indeed.
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iako jeste vrlo pametan.
07:11
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
07:14
Smith -- and I want you to go
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Smit -- I želim da odete
07:16
and bow down before his statue in the Royal Mile;
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i poklonite se pred njegovom statuom u Rojal Majlu;
07:19
it's a wonderful statue --
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statua je odlična --
07:21
Smith, in the "Wealth of Nations"
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Smit je u knjizi "Bogatstvo naroda",
07:23
published in 1776 --
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štampanoj 1776. --
07:25
that's the most important thing that happened that year ...
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ovo je najvažnija stvar koja se desila te godine...
07:28
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
07:31
You bet.
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Naravno.
07:34
There was a little local difficulty in some of our minor colonies, but ...
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Bio je omanji lokalni problem u nekim našim kolonijama, ali...
07:37
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
07:39
"China seems to have been long stationary,
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"Čini se da je Kina već dugo stacionarna
07:41
and probably long ago acquired that full complement of riches
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i verovatno je odavno stekla onu količinu bogatstva
07:44
which is consistent with the nature of its laws and institutions.
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koja je u skladu sa prirodom njenih zakona i institucija.
07:48
But this complement may be much inferior
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Ali je ova količina možda inferiorna
07:50
to what, with other laws and institutions,
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u odnosu na to šta bi, uz druge zakone i institucije,
07:53
the nature of its soil, climate, and situation
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priroda zemlje, klime i situacije,
07:55
might admit of."
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pokazali mogućim."
07:57
That is so right and so cool.
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Ovo je tako tačno i kul.
07:59
And he said it such a long time ago.
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I rekao je ovo toliko davno.
08:02
But you know, this is a TED audience,
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Ali znate, ovo je TED publika,
08:05
and if I keep talking about institutions,
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i ako nastavim da pričam o institucijama,
08:07
you're going to turn off.
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prestaćete da me pratite.
08:09
So I'm going to translate this into language that you can understand.
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Zato ću prevesti ovo u jezik koji razumete.
08:13
Let's call them the killer apps.
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Hajde da ih nazovemo esencijalnim aplikacijama.
08:17
I want to explain to you that there were six killer apps
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Želim da objasnim da postoji 6 esencijalnih aplikacija
08:20
that set the West apart from the rest.
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koje su udaljile zapad od ostatka sveta.
08:23
And they're kind of like the apps on your phone,
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Slični su vašim aplikacijama na telefonu,
08:25
in the sense that they look quite simple.
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u smislu da izgledaju vrlo jednostavno.
08:27
They're just icons; you click on them.
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One su samo ikonice; samo kliknete na njih.
08:29
But behind the icon, there's complex code.
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Ali iza ikonica stoji kompleksan kod.
08:32
It's the same with institutions.
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Isto je sa institucijama.
08:34
There are six
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Postoji šest
08:36
which I think explain the Great Divergence.
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koje mislim da objašnjavaju Veliku divergenciju.
08:39
One, competition.
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Prva je konkurencija.
08:41
Two, the scientific revolution.
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Druga je naučna revolucija.
08:43
Three, property rights.
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Treća, zakoni svojine.
08:45
Four, modern medicine.
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Četvrta je moderna medicina.
08:47
Five, the consumer society.
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Peta je potrošačko društvo.
08:49
And six, the work ethic.
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I šesta je radna etika.
08:51
You can play a game and try and think of one I've missed at,
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Možete probati da vidite da li sam neku propustio
08:53
or try and boil it down to just four,
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ili ih možete svesti na samo 4,
08:56
but you'll lose.
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ali ćete izgubiti.
08:58
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
09:00
Let me very briefly tell you what I mean by this,
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Dopustite da ukratko objasnim na šta mislim,
09:03
synthesizing the work of many economic historians
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kombinujući rad mnogih istoričara ekonomije
09:06
in the process.
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tokom procesa.
09:08
Competition means,
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Konkurencija znači
09:10
not only were there a hundred different political units in Europe in 1500,
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ne samo da su postojale na stotine političkih jedinica u Evropi 1500.
09:12
but within each of these units,
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već da je u samim jedinicama
09:14
there was competition between corporations as well as sovereigns.
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bilo konkurencije među korporacijama i vladarima.
09:18
The ancestor of the modern corporation, the City of London Corporation,
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Predak moderne korporacije, Korporacija grada Londona,
09:21
existed in the 12th century.
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postojao je u 12. veku.
09:23
Nothing like this existed in China,
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Ništa slično nije bilo u Kini
09:25
where there was one monolithic state
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gde je postojala jedna jedinstvena država
09:27
covering a fifth of humanity,
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koja je pokrivala petinu čovečanstva
09:29
and anyone with any ambition
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i svako sa bilo kojom ambicijom
09:31
had to pass one standardized examination,
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je morao da položi standardizovan test
09:33
which took three days and was very difficult
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koji je trajao tri dana i bio vrlo težak.
09:35
and involved memorizing vast numbers of characters
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Uključivao je pamćenje ogromnog broja karaktera
09:38
and very complex Confucian essay writing.
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i pisanje vrlo kompleksnih konfučijanskih eseja.
09:42
The scientific revolution was different
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Naučna revolucija se razlikovala
09:45
from the science that had been achieved in the Oriental world
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od nauke koja je dostignuta u orijentalnom svetu
09:48
in a number of crucial ways,
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na mnogo načina
09:50
the most important being
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od kojih je najvažniji bio
09:52
that, through the experimental method,
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da je putem eksperimentalne metode
09:54
it gave men control over nature in a way that had not been possible before.
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dao ljudima kontrolu nad prirodom kako ranije nije bilo moguće.
09:57
Example: Benjamin Robins's extraordinary application
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Primer: Bendžamin Robinson je izvršio neverovatnu primenu
10:01
of Newtonian physics to ballistics.
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Njutnove fizike na balistiku.
10:04
Once you do that,
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Kada to uradite
10:06
your artillery becomes accurate.
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vaša artiljerija postaje precizna.
10:09
Think of what that means.
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Razmislite šta je ovo značilo.
10:11
That really was a killer application.
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To je stvarno bila ubistvena aplikacija.
10:13
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
10:16
Meanwhile, there's no scientific revolution anywhere else.
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Istovremeno, nigde se drugde ne dešava naučna revolucija.
10:19
The Ottoman Empire's not that far from Europe,
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Otomansko carstvo je bilo blizu Evrope,
10:21
but there's no scientific revolution there.
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ali nije imalo naučnu revoluciju.
10:23
In fact, they demolish Taqi al-Din's observatory,
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Zapravo, uništili su Taki al-Donovu opservatoriju
10:26
because it's considered blasphemous
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jer su je smatrali bogohulnom
10:28
to inquire into the mind of God.
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jer ispituje Božji um.
10:31
Property rights: It's not the democracy, folks;
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Zakoni svojine: nije u pitanju demokratija, narode,
10:34
it's having the rule of law based on private property rights.
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već postojanje zakonskog prava na osnovu zakona o imovini.
10:37
That's what makes the difference
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To je ono što razlikuje
10:39
between North America and South America.
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Severnu i Južnu Ameriku.
10:41
You could turn up in North America
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Možete se pojaviti u Severnoj Americi,
10:43
having signed a deed of indenture
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gde ste potpisali sporazum
10:45
saying, "I'll work for nothing for five years.
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i rekli: "Radiću bez nadoknade 5 godina,
10:47
You just have to feed me."
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samo za hranu."
10:49
But at the end of it, you've got a hundred acres of land.
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Ali na kraju ćete dobiti 100 jutara zemlje.
10:52
That's the land grant
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Ovo je poklon nekretnina
10:54
on the bottom half of the slide.
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na donjoj polovini slajda.
10:56
That's not possible in Latin America
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Ovo nije moguće u Latinskoj Americi
10:59
where land is held onto
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gde zemlju drži
11:01
by a tiny elite descended from the conquistadors.
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malobrojna elita koja potiče od konkvistadora.
11:03
And you can see here the huge divergence
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I ovde možete videti ogromnu divergenciju
11:05
that happens in property ownership between North and South.
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kod vlasništva nekretnina na severu i jugu.
11:08
Most people in rural North America
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Većina ljudi iz ruralnog dela Severne Amerike
11:10
owned some land by 1900.
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je posedovala neku zemlju do 1900.
11:13
Hardly anyone in South America did.
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U Južnoj Americi skoro niko nije.
11:15
That's another killer app.
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Ovo je još jedna esencijalna aplikacija.
11:18
Modern medicine in the late 19th century
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Moderna medicina je krajem 19. veka
11:20
began to make major breakthroughs
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počela da pravi veliki prodor
11:22
against the infectious diseases that killed a lot of people.
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u borbi protiv zaraznih bolesti koje su ubijale mnoge.
11:24
And this was another killer app --
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I ovo je bila esencijalna aplikacija --
11:26
the very opposite of a killer,
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koja je davala život
11:28
because it doubled, and then more than doubled, human life expectancy.
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jer je udvostručila, a potom i više nego udvostručila životni vek čoveka.
11:31
It even did that
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Čak je to učinila
11:33
in the European empires.
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u evropskim imperijama.
11:35
Even in places like Senegal,
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Čak i u mestima poput Senegala,
11:37
beginning in the early 20th century,
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počevši od 20. veka,
11:39
there were major breakthroughs in public health,
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veliki napredak je učinjen u javnom zdravstvu
11:41
and life expectancy began to rise.
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i životni vek je počeo da raste.
11:43
It doesn't rise any faster
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Ništa brže nije rastao
11:45
after these countries become independent.
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nakon što su ove zemlje dobile nezavisnost.
11:47
The empires weren't all bad.
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Imperije nisu bile baš toliko loše.
11:49
The consumer society is what you need
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Potrebno vam je potrošačko društvo
11:51
for the Industrial Revolution to have a point.
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da bi industrijska revolucija imala poentu.
11:54
You need people to want to wear tons of clothes.
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Potrebni su ljudi koji kupuju gomilu odeće.
11:56
You've all bought an article of clothing in the last month;
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Svi ste kupili neku odeću u poslednjih mesec dana.
11:58
I guarantee it.
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Garantujem.
12:00
That's the consumer society,
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To je potrošačko društvo
12:02
and it propels economic growth
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i ono stimuliše ekonomski rast
12:04
more than even technological change itself.
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više od tehnoloških promena.
12:07
Japan was the first non-Western society
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Japan je bio prvo društvo van zapada
12:09
to embrace it.
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koje je ovo usvojilo.
12:11
The alternative,
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Alternativa,
12:13
which was proposed by Mahatma Gandhi,
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koju je predlagao Mahatma Gandi,
12:15
was to institutionalize and make poverty permanent.
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bila je trajna institucionalizacija siromaštva.
12:18
Very few Indians today
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Danas mali broj Indijaca
12:20
wish that India had gone down
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misli da je trebalo krenuti
12:22
Mahatma Gandhi's road.
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putem Mahatme Gandija.
12:25
Finally, the work ethic.
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Na kraju, radna etika.
12:27
Max Weber thought that was peculiarly Protestant.
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Maks Veber je mislio da je ovo bilo specifično za protestante.
12:30
He was wrong.
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Pogrešio je.
12:32
Any culture can get the work ethic
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Bilo koja kultura može prisvojiti radnu etiku
12:34
if the institutions are there
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ako postoje institucije
12:36
to create the incentive to work.
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koje će stvoriti podsticaj za rad.
12:38
We know this
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Ovo znamo
12:40
because today the work ethic
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jer danas radna etika
12:42
is no longer a Protestant, Western phenomenon.
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nije samo fenomen protestanata sa zapada.
12:45
In fact, the West has lost its work ethic.
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Zapravo, zapad je izgubio radnu etiku.
12:48
Today, the average Korean
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Danas prosečan Korejac
12:51
works a thousand hours more a year
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godišnje radi 1000 sati više
12:55
than the average German --
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od prosečnog Nemca --
12:57
a thousand.
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hiljadu.
12:59
And this is part
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I ovo je deo
13:01
of a really extraordinary phenomenon,
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vrlo neobičnog fenomena
13:04
and that is the end of the Great Divergence.
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a to je kraj Velike divergencije.
13:07
Who's got the work ethic now?
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Ko sad ima radnu etiku?
13:09
Take a look at mathematical attainment
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Pogledajte rezultate takmičenja iz matematike
13:12
by 15 year-olds.
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koja su radili 15-godišnjaci.
13:14
At the top of the international league table
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Na vrhu međunarodne tabele,
13:16
according to the latest PISA study,
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prema poslednjim studijama "PISA",
13:19
is the Shanghai district of China.
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nalazi se šangajska oblast Kine
13:21
The gap between Shanghai
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Jaz između Šangaja
13:23
and the United Kingdom and the United States
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i Velike Britanije i SAD-a
13:26
is as big as the gap between the U.K. and the U.S.
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je kao razlika između Britanije i SAD-a
13:29
and Albania and Tunisia.
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naspram Albanije i Tunisa.
13:32
You probably assume
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Verovatno pretpostavljate
13:34
that because the iPhone was designed in California
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da pošto je "iPhone" dizajniran u Kaliforniji,
13:36
but assembled in China
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ali sklopljen u Kini
13:38
that the West still leads in terms of technological innovation.
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da zapad i dalje vodi u tehnološkim inovacijama.
13:41
You're wrong.
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Grešite.
13:43
In terms of patents,
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Kod patenata
13:45
there's no question that the East is ahead.
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nema pogovora da istok vodi.
13:47
Not only has Japan been ahead for some time,
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Ne samo da je Japan već neko vreme na čelu,
13:50
South Korea has gone into third place,
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već je Južna Koreja dostigla treće mesto,
13:53
and China is just about to overtake Germany.
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a Kina samo što nije prestigla Nemačku.
13:56
Why?
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Zašto?
13:58
Because the killer apps can be downloaded.
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Jer esencijalne aplikacije se mogu preuzeti.
14:00
It's open source.
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One su otvorenog tipa.
14:02
Any society can adopt these institutions,
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Bilo koje društvo može usvojiti ove institucije,
14:04
and when they do,
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a kada to učine,
14:06
they achieve what the West achieved after 1500 --
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postižu ono što je zapad uspeo nakon 1500.
14:10
only faster.
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samo brže.
14:12
This is the Great Reconvergence,
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Ovo je Velika rekonvergencija,
14:14
and it's the biggest story of your lifetime.
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i najveća priča vašeg života.
14:18
Because it's on your watch that this is happening.
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Jer ste njeni svedoci.
14:21
It's our generation
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Naša generacija je ta
14:23
that is witnessing the end of Western predominance.
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koja će biti svedok kraja dominacije zapada.
14:25
The average American used to be more than 20 times richer
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Prosečan Amerikanac je bio više od 20 puta bogatiji
14:27
than the average Chinese.
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od prosečnog Kineza.
14:29
Now it's just five times,
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Sada je 5 puta,
14:31
and soon it will be 2.5 times.
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a uskoro ce biti 2, 5 puta.
14:33
So I want to end with three questions
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Zato sam hteo da završim sa tri pitanja
14:36
for the future billions,
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o budućim milijardama
14:38
just ahead of 2016,
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do 2016. godine,
14:41
when the United States will lose its place
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kada će SAD predati prvo mesto
14:43
as number one economy to China.
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u ekonomiji Kini.
14:46
The first is, can you delete these apps,
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Prvo: Da li se ove aplikaciju mogu izbrisati?
14:50
and are we in the process of doing so
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Da li smo mi u tom procesu
14:52
in the Western world?
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na zapadu?
14:54
The second question is,
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Drugo pitanje je
14:56
does the sequencing of the download matter?
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da li je redosled preuzimanja važan?
15:00
And could Africa get that sequencing wrong?
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I da li bi Afrika mogla da pogreši u ovom redosledu?
15:05
One obvious implication of modern economic history
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Očigledna implikacija modernih istoričara ekonomije
15:07
is that it's quite hard to transition to democracy
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jeste da je vrlo teško preći u demokratiju
15:10
before you've established
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pre nego što si ustanovio
15:12
secure private property rights.
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pouzdane zakone o privatnom vlasništvu.
15:15
Warning: that may not work.
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Upozorenje: to možda neće raditi.
15:18
And third, can China do without
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I treće, može li Kina
15:20
killer app number three?
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bez esencijalne aplikacije broj tri?
15:22
That's the one that John Locke systematized
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To je pitanje koje je Džon Lok sistematizovao
15:26
when he said that freedom was rooted in private property rights
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kada je rekao da je sloboda ukorenjena u pravima privatnog vlasništva
15:30
and the protection of law.
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i zaštiti zakona.
15:32
That's the basis
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Ovo je osnova
15:34
for the Western model
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zapadnog modela
15:36
of representative government.
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predstavničke vlasti.
15:39
Now this picture shows the demolition
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Ova slika pokazuje uništavanje studija
15:41
of the Chinese artist Ai Weiwei's studio
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kineskog umetnika Ai Veiveia
15:44
in Shanghai earlier this year.
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u Šangaju ranije ove godine.
15:46
He's now free again,
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Sada je ponovo slobodan
15:48
having been detained, as you know, for some time.
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nakon privremenog pritvora, kao što znate.
15:50
But I don't think his studio has been rebuilt.
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Ali mislim da njegov studio nije obnovljen.
15:55
Winston Churchill once defined civilization
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Vinston Čerčil je jednom definisao civilizaciju
15:59
in a lecture he gave in the fateful year of 1938.
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na predavanju iz sudbonosne 1938.
16:03
And I think these words really nail it:
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I mislim da je uspeo da pogodi suštinu:
16:06
"It means a society based upon the opinion of civilians.
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"To znači društvo osnovano na mišljenju civila.
16:10
It means that violence, the rule of warriors and despotic chiefs,
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Da su nasilje, vladavina ratnika i despotskih vođa,
16:13
the conditions of camps and warfare, of riot and tyranny,
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uslovi logora i rata, pobune i tiranije
16:16
give place to parliaments where laws are made,
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zamenjene parlamentom u kom nastaju zakoni
16:19
and independent courts of justice
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i nezavisnim sudovima
16:21
in which over long periods those laws are maintained.
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u kojima se ti zakoni primenjuju.
16:24
That is civilization --
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To je civilizacija --
16:26
and in its soil grow continually
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i na njenom tlu neprekidno rastu
16:28
freedom, comfort and culture,"
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sloboda, udobnost i kultura",
16:31
what all TEDsters care about most.
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ono o čemu TED-ovci najviše brinu.
16:35
"When civilization reigns in any country,
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"Kada civilizacija vlada zemljom,
16:38
a wider and less harassed life
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ona pruža širinu i smireniji život
16:41
is afforded to the masses of the people."
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ljudima."
16:44
That's so true.
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Ovo je istina.
16:48
I don't think the decline of Western civilization
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Ne mislim da je propast zapadne civilizacije
16:51
is inevitable,
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neizbežan
16:53
because I don't think history operates
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jer ne mislim da istorija funkcioniše
16:56
in this kind of life-cycle model,
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po ovom tipu životnog ciklusa,
16:58
beautifully illustrated by Thomas Cole's
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koje je predivno ilustrovao Tomas Kol
17:00
"Course of Empire" paintings.
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na slikama "Put imperije".
17:03
That's not the way history works.
399
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Istorija ne funkcioniše tako.
17:06
That's not the way the West rose,
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To nije kako se zapad uzdigao,
17:08
and I don't think it's the way the West will fall.
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i ne mislim da će tako pasti.
17:11
The West may collapse very suddenly.
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Zapad može pasti vrlo iznenadno.
17:14
Complex civilizations do that,
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To se dešava kompleksnim civilizacijama
17:17
because they operate, most of the time,
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jer uglavnom funkcionišu
17:19
on the edge of chaos.
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na ivici haosa.
17:21
That's one of the most profound insights
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Ovo je jedan od najdubljih uvida
17:24
to come out of the historical study of complex institutions
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proisteklih iz istorijskih studija kompleksnih institucija
17:27
like civilizations.
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poput civilizacija.
17:30
No, we may hang on,
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Ipak se možemo održati
17:32
despite the huge burdens of debt that we've accumulated,
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uprkos ogromnom teretu duga koji smo nagomilali,
17:36
despite the evidence that we've lost our work ethic
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uprkos dokazu da smo izgubili radnu etiku
17:39
and other parts of our historical mojo.
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i drugih istorijskih amajlija.
17:42
But one thing is for sure,
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Ali je jedno sigurno,
17:44
the Great Divergence
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Velika divergencija
17:46
is over, folks.
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je došla do kraja, narode.
17:48
Thanks very much.
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Veliko hvala.
17:50
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
18:15
Bruno Giussani: Niall,
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Bruno Đusani: Najl,
18:17
I am just curious
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interesuje me
18:19
about your take on the other region of the world that's booming,
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tvoje mišljenje o drugoj regiji sveta koja cveta
18:22
which is Latin America.
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a to je Latinska Amerika.
18:25
What's your view on that?
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Šta misliš o tome?
18:28
Niall Ferguson: Well I really am not just talking
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Najl Ferguson: Ja zapravo ne govorim samo
18:30
about the rise of the East;
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o usponu istoka;
18:32
I'm talking about the rise of the Rest,
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Govorim o usponu svega što nije zapad,
18:34
and that includes South America.
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što uključuje i Južnu Ameriku.
18:36
I once asked one of my colleagues at Harvard,
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Jednom sam pitao kolegu sa Harvarda
18:38
"Hey, is South America part of the West?"
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"Ej, je li Južna Amerika deo Zapada?"
18:40
He was an expert in Latin American history.
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On je bio ekspert za istoriju Latinske Amerike.
18:42
He said, "I don't know; I'll have to think about that."
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Rekao je: "Ne znam. Moraću da razmislim o tome."
18:44
That tells you something really important.
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Ovo govori nešto važno.
18:46
I think if you look at what is happening in Brazil in particular,
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Mislim da ako pogledate šta se dešava posebno u Brazilu,
18:48
but also Chile,
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ali i Čileu,
18:50
which was in many ways the one that led the way
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koji je po mnogo čemu predvodio put
18:53
in transforming the institutions of economic life,
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u transformisanju ekonomskih institucija,
18:56
there's a very bright future indeed.
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da ih čeka svetla budućnost.
18:59
So my story really is
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Tako da je moja priča zapravo
19:01
as much about that convergence in the Americas
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isto toliko o konvergenciji u Amerikama,
19:04
as it's a convergence story in Eurasia.
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koliko o konvergenciji u Evroaziji.
19:06
BG: And there is this impression
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BĐ: I stiče se utisak
19:08
that North America and Europe
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da Severna Amerika i Evropa
19:10
are not really paying attention
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ne obraćaju pažnju
19:12
to these trends.
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na ove trendove.
19:14
Mostly they're worried about each other.
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Uglavnom se bave jedni drugima.
19:17
The Americans think that the European model is going to crumble tomorrow.
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Amerikanci misle da će evropski model sutra propasti.
19:20
The Europeans think that the American budget is going to explode tomorrow.
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Evropljani misle da će američke partije sutra eksplodirati.
19:23
And that's all we seem to be caring about recently.
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I deluje da je to jedino što ih zanima u poslednje vreme.
19:26
NF: I think the fiscal crisis
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NF: Mislim da fiskalna kriza
19:28
that we see in the developed World right now -- both sides of the Atlantic --
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koju vidimo u razvijenom zapadu danas, s obe strane Atlantika,
19:31
is essentially the same thing
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je u suštini ista stvar,
19:33
taking different forms
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samo u drugom obliku,
19:35
in terms of political culture.
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u smislu političke kulture.
19:37
And it's a crisis that has its structural facet --
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I to je kriza koja ima svoj strukturni aspekt
19:41
it's partly to do with demographics.
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koji delom ima veze sa demografijom.
19:43
But it's also, of course, to do with the massive crisis
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Ali naravno i sa velikom krizom
19:46
that followed excessive leverage,
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koja je pratila preteranu moć,
19:48
excessive borrowing in the private sector.
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preterane pozajmice u privatnom sektoru.
19:50
That crisis,
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Ta kriza,
19:52
which has been the focus of so much attention, including by me,
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koja je privukla toliko pažnje, uključujući moju,
19:55
I think is an epiphenomenon.
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mislim da je površni fenomen.
19:57
The financial crisis is really a relatively small historic phenomenon,
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Finansijska kriza je relativno mali istorijski fenomen,
20:00
which has just accelerated
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koji je samo ubrzao
20:02
this huge shift,
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ovu veliku promenu
20:04
which ends half a millennium of Western ascendancy.
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kojom se završava 500 godina dominacije zapada.
20:06
I think that's its real importance.
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Mislim da je u tome njegova prava važnost.
20:08
BG: Niall, thank you. (NF: Thank you very much, Bruno.)
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BĐ: Najl, hvala ti. (NF: Hvala, Bruno)
20:10
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Niall Ferguson - HistorianHistory is a curious thing, and Niall Ferguson investigates not only what happened but why. (Hint: Politics and money explain a lot.)
Why you should listen
Niall Ferguson teaches history and business administration at Harvard and is a senior research fellow at several other universities, including Oxford. His books chronicle a wide range of political and socio-economic events; he has written about everything from German politics during the era of inflation to a financial history of the world. He’s now working on a biography of former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.
Ferguson is a prolific and often controversial commentator on contemporary politics and economics. He frequently writes, reviews, and hosts for the British and American press. His latest book and TV series, Civilization: The West and the Rest, aims to help 21st-century audiences understand the past and the present. In it, he asks how, since the 1500s, Western nations have surpassed their Eastern counterparts and came to dominate the world (his answer: thanks to six “killer apps”: science, medicine, protestant work ethic, competition, property rights, consumer society). And he wonders whether that domination is now threatened by the rise of Asia. His theories have drawn criticism and prompted discussions, which he says was his intent. “It’s designed to be slightly annoying, so that you talk about it,” he told The Observer.
He says: "If a majority of people subscribe to a particular view, it pays to question it. It pays to think: maybe this is wrong."
Niall Ferguson | Speaker | TED.com