TED@Cannes
Hans Rosling: Global population growth, box by box
Hans Rosling o raste svetovej populácie
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Svetová populácia sa zvýši na 9 miliárd v najbližších 50 rokoch – a iba zvyšovaním životného štandardu najchudobnejších môžeme zastaviť zvyšovanie populácie. Toto je paradoxná odpoveď, ktorú Hans Rosling odkrýva na TED@Cannes použitím novej farebnej technológie zobrazovania dát (veď uvidíte).
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I still remember the day in school
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Stále si pamätám ten deň v škole,
00:18
when our teacher told us
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keď nám naša učiteľka povedala,
00:21
that the world population had become
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že na svete žijú už
00:23
three billion people,
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tri miliardy ľudí.
00:25
and that was in 1960.
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To bolo v roku 1960.
00:29
I'm going to talk now about
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A teraz budem rozprávať o tom,
00:31
how world population has changed from that year
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ako sa svetová populácia zmenila od toho roku
00:33
and into the future,
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a ako sa zmení v budúcnosti.
00:35
but I will not use digital technology,
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Ale nebudem používať digitálnu technológiu,
00:38
as I've done during my first five TEDTalks.
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ako počas mojich prvých piatich prednášok na TEDe.
00:41
Instead, I have progressed,
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Namiesto toho som sa posunul ďalej.
00:44
and I am, today, launching
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A dnes spúšťam
00:46
a brand new analog teaching technology
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úplne novú analógovú výučbovú technológiu,
00:49
that I picked up from IKEA:
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ktorú som vzal z Ikey:
00:51
this box.
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túto škatuľu.
00:53
This box contains one billion people.
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Táto škatuľa obsahuje jednu miliardu ľudí.
00:55
And our teacher told us
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A naša učiteľka nám povedala,
00:57
that the industrialized world, 1960,
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že svet s rozvinutým priemyslom v roku 1960
01:00
had one billion people.
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mal jednu miliardu ľudí.
01:02
In the developing world, she said,
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A v rozvojových krajinách, povedala,
01:04
they had two billion people.
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boli dve miliardy ľudí.
01:06
And they lived away then.
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A vtedy žili tu ďaleko.
01:08
There was a big gap between
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Existovala veľká medzera medzi
01:10
the one billion in the industrialized world
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jednou miliardou industrializovaného sveta
01:12
and the two billion in the developing world.
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a dvomi miliardami rozvojového sveta.
01:15
In the industrialized world,
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Vyspelý svet,
01:17
people were healthy,
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ľudia boli zdraví,
01:19
educated, rich,
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vzdelaní, bohatí
01:21
and they had small families.
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a mali malé rodiny.
01:23
And their aspiration
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A ich cieľom
01:25
was to buy a car.
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bolo kúpiť si auto.
01:27
And in 1960, all Swedes were saving
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V roku 1960 všetci Švédi šetrili,
01:30
to try to buy a Volvo like this.
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aby si mohli kúpiť takéto Volvo.
01:33
This was the economic level at which Sweden was.
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Toto bola ekonomická úroveň, na ktorej bolo Švédsko.
01:36
But in contrast to this,
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Ale ako protiklad k tomuto,
01:38
in the developing world, far away,
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rozvojový svet, ďaleko,
01:40
the aspiration of the average family there
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cieľom priemernej rodiny tu
01:43
was to have food for the day.
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bolo mať v ten deň čo jesť.
01:46
They were saving
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A šetrili,
01:48
to be able to buy a pair of shoes.
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aby si mohli kúpiť pár topánok.
01:51
There was an enormous gap in the world
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Bola tu obrovská medzera vo svete,
01:53
when I grew up.
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v ktorom som vyrastal.
01:55
And this gap between the West and the rest
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A táto medzera medzi západom a zvyškom sveta
01:58
has created a mindset of the world,
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vytvorila predstavu sveta,
02:01
which we still use linguistically
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ktorú stále používame,
02:03
when we talk about "the West"
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keď hovoríme o "západnom svete"
02:05
and "the Developing World."
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a "rozvojových krajinách".
02:07
But the world has changed,
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Ale svet sa zmenil
02:09
and it's overdue to upgrade that mindset
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a je najvyšší čas prispôsobiť tomu našu predstavu o ňom,
02:12
and that taxonomy of the world, and to understand it.
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o jeho systéme a pochopiť to.
02:15
And that's what I'm going to show you,
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A to sa Vám chystám ukázať.
02:17
because since 1960
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Pretože od roku 1960
02:20
what has happened in the world up to 2010
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sa vo svete do roku 2010 objavili
02:23
is that a staggering
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ohromujúce
02:25
four billion people
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štyri miliardy ľudí,
02:27
have been added to the world population.
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ktoré sa pripočítali k svetovej populácii.
02:29
Just look how many.
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Len sa pozrite koľko.
02:31
The world population has doubled
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Svetová populácia sa zdvojnásobila,
02:33
since I went to school.
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odkedy som chodil do školy.
02:37
And of course, there's been economic growth in the West.
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A samozrejme, na Západe bol ekonomický rast.
02:40
A lot of companies have happened to grow the economy,
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Množstvo spoločností posilnilo ekonomiku,
02:43
so the Western population moved over to here.
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takže západná civilizácia sa posunula sem.
02:46
And now their aspiration is not only to have a car.
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A teraz jej cieľom nie je mať iba auto.
02:49
Now they want to have a holiday on a very remote destination
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Teraz chcú ísť na dovolenku niekam ďaleko
02:52
and they want to fly.
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a chcú tam letieť.
02:54
So this is where they are today.
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Takže tu sme dnes.
02:56
And the most successful of the developing countries,
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A najúspešnejšie z rozvojových krajín sú tu,
02:59
they have moved on, you know,
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tie sa posunuli.
03:01
and they have become emerging economies, we call them.
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Stali sa nastupujúcimi ekonomikami, ako ich voláme.
03:04
They are now buying cars.
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A oni si teraz kupujú autá.
03:06
And what happened a month ago
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A pred mesiacom
03:08
was that the Chinese company, Geely,
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čínska spoločnosť Geely
03:10
they acquired the Volvo company,
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prevzala spoločnosť Volvo.
03:13
and then finally the Swedes understood that
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A vtedy konečne Švédi pochopili, že
03:15
something big had happened in the world.
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sa vo svete stalo niečo veľké.
03:17
(Laughter)
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(Smiech)
03:20
So there they are.
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Takže oni sú tam.
03:22
And the tragedy is that the two billion over here
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A tragédiou je, že dve miliardy ľudí tu,
03:25
that is struggling for food and shoes,
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tí, ktorí zápasia o jedlo a topánky,
03:28
they are still almost as poor
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sú stále takmer rovnako chudobní,
03:30
as they were 50 years ago.
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ako boli pred 50 rokmi.
03:32
The new thing is that
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Novinkou je, že
03:34
we have the biggest pile of billions, the three billions here,
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máme najväčšiu kopu miliárd, tri miliardy tu,
03:37
which are also becoming emerging economies,
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z ktorých sa tiež stávajú nastupujúce ekonomiky,
03:40
because they are quite healthy, relatively well-educated,
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pretože sú celkom zdraví, relatívne dobre vzdelaní
03:43
and they already also have two to three children
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a tiež už majú dve alebo tri deti
03:45
per woman, as those [richer also] have.
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spadajúce na ženu, tak ako títo.
03:48
And their aspiration now
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A ich cieľom je teraz,
03:50
is, of course, to buy a bicycle,
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samozrejme, kúpiť si bicykel,
03:53
and then later on they would like to have a motorbike also.
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a potom by neskôr chceli mať aj motorku.
03:56
But this is the world
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Ale toto je svet,
03:59
we have today,
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ktorý máme dnes.
04:01
no longer any gap.
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Už žiadna medzera.
04:03
But the distance from the poorest here, the very poorest,
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Ale vzdialenosť od tých najchudobnejších
04:06
to the very richest over here is wider than ever.
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po tých najbohatších, tu, je väčšia ako kedykoľvek predtým.
04:09
But there is a continuous world
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Ale je tu súvislý svet
04:11
from walking, biking,
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od chodenia, bicyklovania sa,
04:13
driving, flying --
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jazdenia, lietania –
04:15
there are people on all levels,
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ľudia na všetkých úrovniach.
04:17
and most people tend to be somewhere in the middle.
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A väčšina ľudí zvykne byť niekde v strede.
04:21
This is the new world we have today
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Toto je nový svet, ktorý máme dnes,
04:23
in 2010.
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v roku 2010.
04:26
And what will happen in the future?
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A čo sa stane v budúcnosti?
04:30
Well, I'm going to project
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Nuž, posuniem sa
04:32
into 2050.
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do roku 2050.
04:34
I was in Shanghai recently,
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Prednedávnom som bol v Šanghaji.
04:37
and I listened to what's happening in China,
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A počúval som, čo sa deje v Číne.
04:39
and it's pretty sure that they will catch up,
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Je pomerne isté, že nás dobehnú,
04:42
just as Japan did.
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tak ako Japonci.
04:44
All the projections [say that] this one [billion] will [only] grow with
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Všetky odhady – tento bude rásť
04:46
one to two or three percent.
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o jeden až dve alebo tri percentá.
04:48
[But this second] grows with seven, eight percent, and then they will end up here.
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A tento porastie o sedem, osem. A potom skončia tu hore.
04:51
They will start flying.
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A začnú lietať.
04:53
And these
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A tieto
04:55
lower or middle income countries, the emerging income countries,
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krajiny s nižším alebo stredným príjmom, krajiny s rastúcimi príjmami,
04:58
they will also forge forwards economically.
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tie sa tiež vypracujú ekonomicky.
05:01
And if,
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A ak,
05:03
but only if,
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ale iba ak,
05:05
we invest in the right green technology --
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investujeme do správnej zelenej technológie –
05:08
so that we can avoid severe climate change,
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aby sme sa mohli vyhnúť vážnym klimatickým zmenám,
05:10
and energy can still be relatively cheap --
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a ak energia bude stále relatívne lacná –
05:13
then they will move all the way up here.
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potom sa posunú sem hore.
05:16
And they will start to buy
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A začnú si kupovať
05:18
electric cars.
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elektrické autá.
05:20
This is what we will find there.
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Toto tam potom nájdeme.
05:23
So what about the poorest two billion?
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Takže čo bude s najchudobnejšími dvomi miliardami?
05:25
What about the poorest two billion here?
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Čo bude s najchudobnejšími dvomi miliardami tu?
05:28
Will they move on?
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Posunú sa ďalej?
05:30
Well, here population [growth] comes in
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Nuž, tu populácia stagnuje,
05:32
because there [among emerging economies] we already have two to three children per woman,
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pretože tam už máme dve alebo tri deti na jednu ženu,
05:35
family planning is widely used,
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plánované rodičovstvo je široko zaužívané
05:37
and population growth is coming to an end.
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a rast populácie sa zastavuje.
05:39
Here [among the poorest], population is growing.
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Tu populácia rastie.
05:42
So these [poorest] two billion will, in the next decades,
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Takže tieto dve miliardy sa v najbližších desaťročiach
05:45
increase to three billion,
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zvýšia na tri miliardy.
05:47
and they will thereafter
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A potom
05:49
increase to four billion.
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na štyri miliardy.
05:51
There is nothing --
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Neexistuje nič,
05:53
but a nuclear war of a kind we've never seen --
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okrem nukleárnej vojny, akú sme ešte nevideli,
05:56
that can stop this [growth] from happening.
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čo by tomu mohlo zabrániť.
05:59
Because we already have this [growth] in process.
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Pretože už sa to začalo, už sa to deje.
06:02
But if, and only if,
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A ak, ale iba ak
06:04
[the poorest] get out of poverty,
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sa dostanú z chudoby,
06:06
they get education, they get improved child survival,
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dostanú vzdelanie, znížia detskú úmrtnosť,
06:08
they can buy a bicycle and a cell phone and come [to live] here,
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budú si môcť kúpiť bicykel a mobil a prídu sem,
06:11
then population growth
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potom sa rast populácie
06:13
will stop in 2050.
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zastaví, tu, v roku 2050.
06:16
We cannot have people on this level
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Nemôžeme mať ľudí na tejto úrovni,
06:18
looking for food and shoes
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ktorí chcú jedlo a topánky,
06:20
because then we get continued population growth.
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pretože potom dostaneme pokračujúci rast populácie.
06:23
And let me show you why
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A dovoľte mi ukázať Vám prečo
06:25
by converting back to the old-time
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návratom späť k starej dobrej
06:28
digital technology.
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digitálnej technológie.
06:30
Here I have on the screen
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Tu na obrazovke mám
06:32
my country bubbles.
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moje bubliny krajín.
06:34
Every bubble is a country. The size is population.
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Každá bublina je krajina. Veľkosť zodpovedá populácii.
06:36
The colors show the continent.
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Farby ukazujú kontinent.
06:38
The yellow on there is the Americas;
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Žltá je Severná a Južná Amerika,
06:40
dark blue is Africa; brown is Europe;
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tmavomodrá je Afrika, hnedá Európa,
06:42
green is the Middle East
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zelený je Blízky východ,
06:45
and this light blue is South Asia.
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a táto svetlomodrá je južná Ázia.
06:47
That's India and this is China. Size is population.
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Tamto je India a toto Čína. Veľkosť je počet obyvateľov.
06:49
Here I have children per woman:
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Tu mám počet detí na jednu ženu,
06:52
two children, four children, six children, eight children --
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dve deti, štyri deti, šesť detí, osem detí –
06:54
big families, small families.
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veľké rodiny, malé rodiny.
06:57
The year is 1960.
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Rok je 1960.
06:59
And down here, child survival,
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A tu dole je, koľko detí prežije,
07:01
the percentage of children surviving childhood
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percento pravdepodobnosti prežitia dieťaťa do veku,
07:03
up to starting school:
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kým nezačne chodiť do školy.
07:05
60 percent, 70 percent, 80 percent, 90,
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60 %, 70 %, 80 %, 90 %
07:08
and almost 100 percent, as we have today
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a takmer 100 %, tak ako to máme dnes
07:10
in the wealthiest and healthiest countries.
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v najbohatších a najzdravších krajinách.
07:12
But look, this is the world my teacher talked about in 1960:
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Pozrite, toto je svet, o ktorom hovorila moja učiteľka v roku 1960.
07:15
one billion Western world here --
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Jedna miliarda západného sveta tu,
07:18
high child-survival, small families --
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vysoké percento prežitia detí, malé rodiny.
07:21
and all the rest,
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A všetok zvyšok,
07:23
the rainbow of developing countries,
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pestrá paleta rozvojových krajín
07:25
with very large families
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s veľmi veľkými rodinami
07:27
and poor child survival.
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a nízkym percentom prežitia detí.
07:29
What has happened? I start the world. Here we go.
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Čo sa stalo? Spustil som svet. Tak poďme.
07:32
Can you see, as the years pass by, child survival is increasing?
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Vidíte, ako ubiehajú roky, že sa detská úmrtnosť znižuje?
07:35
They get soap, hygiene, education,
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Dostali mydlo, hygienu, vzdelanie,
07:37
vaccination, penicillin
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očkovania, penicilín.
07:39
and then family planning. Family size is decreasing.
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A potom plánovanie rodičovstva. Veľkosť rodín sa zmenšuje.
07:42
[When] they get up to 90-percent child survival, then families decrease,
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Dostali sa až na úroveň prežitia detí 90 %, potom sa rodiny zmenšili.
07:45
and most of the Arab countries in the Middle East
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A väčšina arabských krajín na Blízkom východe
07:47
is falling down there [to small families].
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padá sem dole.
07:49
Look, Bangladesh catching up with India.
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Pozrite, Bangladéš dobieha Indiu.
07:51
The whole emerging world
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A celý svet nastupujúcich ekonomík
07:54
joins the Western world
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sa pripája k západnému svetu
07:56
with good child survival
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s nízkou detskou úmrtnosťou
07:58
and small family size,
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a malými rodinami.
08:00
but we still have the poorest billion.
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Ale stále tu máme tú najchudobnejšiu miliardu.
08:02
Can you see the poorest billion,
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Vidíte tú najchudobnejšiu miliardu,
08:04
those [two] boxes I had over here?
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krabice, ktoré mám tu?
08:07
They are still up here.
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Tie sú stále tam hore.
08:09
And they still have a child survival
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A stále u nich prežije len
08:11
of only 70 to 80 percent,
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70 až 80 % detí,
08:13
meaning that if you have six children born,
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čo znamená, že ak sa Vám narodilo šesť detí,
08:15
there will be at least four who survive
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aspoň štyri prežijú
08:17
to the next generation.
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do ďalšej generácie.
08:19
And the population will double in one generation.
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A tak sa populácia zdvojnásobí za jednu generáciu.
08:22
So the only way
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Takže jediným spôsobom,
08:24
of really getting world population [growth] to stop
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ako naozaj zastaviť rast svetovej populácie,
08:27
is to continue to improve child survival
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je pokračovať v zvyšovaní úrovne prežitia detí
08:29
to 90 percent.
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na 90 %.
08:31
That's why investments by Gates Foundation,
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Kvôli tomu sú investície Gates Foundation,
08:33
UNICEF and aid organizations,
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UNICEFu a iných organizácií
08:35
together with national government in the poorest countries,
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spolu s vládami najchudobnejších krajín
08:37
are so good;
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také užitočné.
08:39
because they are actually
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Pretože oni nám vlastne
08:41
helping us to reach
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pomáhajú dosiahnuť
08:43
a sustainable population size of the world.
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udržateľnú veľkosť populácie sveta.
08:45
We can stop at nine billion if we do the right things.
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Môžeme zastať na deviatich miliardách, ak urobíme správne veci.
08:48
Child survival is the new green.
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Nízka detská úmrtnosť je nový sen.
08:51
It's only by child survival
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A iba jej nízka úroveň
08:53
that we will stop population growth.
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môže zastaviť rast populácie.
08:56
And will it happen?
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Stane sa tak?
08:58
Well, I'm not an optimist,
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Nuž, ja nie som optimista,
09:01
neither am I a pessimist.
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nie som ani pesimista.
09:03
I'm a very serious "possibilist."
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Som veľmi vážny "posibilista".
09:06
It's a new category where we take emotion apart,
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Je to nová kategória, v ktorej sa odsunú emócie nabok
09:09
and we just work analytically with the world.
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a so svetom sa pracuje iba analyticky.
09:11
It can be done.
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To sa dá.
09:14
We can have a much more just world.
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Môžeme mať omnoho spravodlivejší svet.
09:17
With green technology
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So zelenou technológiou
09:19
and with investments to alleviate poverty,
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a s investíciami na zmiernenie chudoby
09:21
and global governance,
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a svetovej vlády
09:23
the world can become like this.
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sa svet môže stať takýmto.
09:25
And look at the position of the old West.
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A pozrite sa na pozíciu starého Západu.
09:28
Remember when this blue box was all alone,
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Pamätáte si, keď tu bola modrá krabica úplne sama,
09:31
leading the world, living its own life.
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na čele ľudstva, žijúca svoj vlastný život.
09:34
This will not happen [again].
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To sa nestane.
09:36
The role of the old West in the new world
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Úlohou starého Západu v novom svete
09:39
is to become the foundation
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je stať sa základom
09:41
of the modern world --
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nového sveta –
09:43
nothing more, nothing less.
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nič viac, nič menej.
09:45
But it's a very important role.
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Ale to je veľmi dôležitá úloha.
09:47
Do it well and get used to it.
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Plňte ju dobre a zvyknite si na ňu.
09:49
Thank you very much.
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Ďakujem veľmi pekne.
09:51
(Applause)
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(Potlesk)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionaryIn Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
Why you should listen
Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.
What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.
Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)
Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.
Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com