TED@Cannes
Hans Rosling: Global population growth, box by box
Hans Rosling 談世界人口成長
Filmed:
Readability: 3.9
3,914,736 views
在接下來五十年，世界人口將增長到九十億——惟有在最貧窮國家的生活水準得到改善後，我們才得以測量人口成長的真實數據。這個似是而非的答案是 Hans Rosling 在 TED@Cannes 的演說內容，他使用繽紛的新數據科技，向我們呈現他的新發現。
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I still remember the day in school
0
1000
2000
我還記得以前在學校時，
00:18
when our teacher told us
1
3000
3000
當老師告訴我們
00:21
that the world population had become
2
6000
2000
世界人口已達
00:23
three billion people,
3
8000
2000
三十億人的時候，
00:25
and that was in 1960.
4
10000
3000
那年是 1960 年。
00:29
I'm going to talk now about
5
14000
2000
我現在想談論的是
00:31
how world population has changed from that year
6
16000
2000
自從那年後，世界人口是如何改變了，
00:33
and into the future,
7
18000
2000
未來又將如何？
00:35
but I will not use digital technology,
8
20000
3000
但這次我不用數位科技
00:38
as I've done during my first five TEDTalks.
9
23000
3000
因為在前五場的 TEDTalks，我已用了好幾次
00:41
Instead, I have progressed,
10
26000
3000
相反地，這次我進步了
00:44
and I am, today, launching
11
29000
2000
今天，我要展開一項
00:46
a brand new analog teaching technology
12
31000
3000
全新的類比教學技術，
00:49
that I picked up from IKEA:
13
34000
2000
一個我從 IKEA 取得的科技產品：
00:51
this box.
14
36000
2000
就是這個箱子。
00:53
This box contains one billion people.
15
38000
2000
這箱子藏有十億人。
00:55
And our teacher told us
16
40000
2000
我們以前的老師告訴我們，
00:57
that the industrialized world, 1960,
17
42000
3000
1960 年時，在工業國家裡
01:00
had one billion people.
18
45000
2000
共有十億人口。
01:02
In the developing world, she said,
19
47000
2000
她說，在發展中國家
01:04
they had two billion people.
20
49000
2000
有二十億人。
01:06
And they lived away then.
21
51000
2000
而他們的生活遠遠不及工業化國家。
01:08
There was a big gap between
22
53000
2000
在他們之中，隔著一個巨大鴻溝
01:10
the one billion in the industrialized world
23
55000
2000
十億人住在工業化的世界裡，
01:12
and the two billion in the developing world.
24
57000
3000
另外二十億人住在開發中國家。
01:15
In the industrialized world,
25
60000
2000
在工業化世界裡，
01:17
people were healthy,
26
62000
2000
人們身體健康、
01:19
educated, rich,
27
64000
2000
教育良好、生活富裕、
01:21
and they had small families.
28
66000
2000
也擁有小家庭。
01:23
And their aspiration
29
68000
2000
他們的志願是
01:25
was to buy a car.
30
70000
2000
買一輛車。
01:27
And in 1960, all Swedes were saving
31
72000
3000
1960 年時， 每個瑞典人都會存錢
01:30
to try to buy a Volvo like this.
32
75000
3000
買一輛 Volvo，像這個
01:33
This was the economic level at which Sweden was.
33
78000
3000
這是當時瑞典的經濟水準
01:36
But in contrast to this,
34
81000
2000
但相反地，
01:38
in the developing world, far away,
35
83000
2000
開發中國家卻遠不及此，
01:40
the aspiration of the average family there
36
85000
3000
在那裡，一般家庭的志願是
01:43
was to have food for the day.
37
88000
3000
求一頓安飽就好
01:46
They were saving
38
91000
2000
他們存錢
01:48
to be able to buy a pair of shoes.
39
93000
3000
是爲了能夠買一雙鞋
01:51
There was an enormous gap in the world
40
96000
2000
當時世界存在一個巨大鴻溝。
01:53
when I grew up.
41
98000
2000
當我還小的時候
01:55
And this gap between the West and the rest
42
100000
3000
這個介於西方國家和其他地區的鴻溝
01:58
has created a mindset of the world,
43
103000
3000
創造了一種世界心態
02:01
which we still use linguistically
44
106000
2000
這個心態反應在，我們仍然在語言上
02:03
when we talk about "the West"
45
108000
2000
使用「西方國家」
02:05
and "the Developing World."
46
110000
2000
與「發展中國家」等詞彙。
02:07
But the world has changed,
47
112000
2000
但這個世界已經改變了，
02:09
and it's overdue to upgrade that mindset
48
114000
3000
心態卻沒有更新
02:12
and that taxonomy of the world, and to understand it.
49
117000
3000
分類世界的方法也停留在過去，沒有人好好地理解
02:15
And that's what I'm going to show you,
50
120000
2000
這就是我要向各位展示的東西
02:17
because since 1960
51
122000
3000
因為，自從 1960 年開始，
02:20
what has happened in the world up to 2010
52
125000
3000
一直到 2010 年以來，在這個世界上所發生的是
02:23
is that a staggering
53
128000
2000
一個驚人的
02:25
four billion people
54
130000
2000
四十億人口
02:27
have been added to the world population.
55
132000
2000
加入了世界
02:29
Just look how many.
56
134000
2000
看看數據就可以明白
02:31
The world population has doubled
57
136000
2000
自從我上學後，
02:33
since I went to school.
58
138000
2000
全球人口翻了兩倍。
02:37
And of course, there's been economic growth in the West.
59
142000
3000
當然，西方國家的經濟有所成長
02:40
A lot of companies have happened to grow the economy,
60
145000
3000
許多企業提振了經濟，
02:43
so the Western population moved over to here.
61
148000
3000
於是，西方國家的人口也移到這裡
02:46
And now their aspiration is not only to have a car.
62
151000
3000
現在，他們的志願已經不再只是一輛車了
02:49
Now they want to have a holiday on a very remote destination
63
154000
3000
現在他們要的是長途旅行
02:52
and they want to fly.
64
157000
2000
他們想坐飛機
02:54
So this is where they are today.
65
159000
2000
所以這是他們今天所在之處
02:56
And the most successful of the developing countries,
66
161000
3000
而在這裡，最成功的發展中國家
02:59
they have moved on, you know,
67
164000
2000
也進步了，
03:01
and they have become emerging economies, we call them.
68
166000
3000
他們成為新興國家
03:04
They are now buying cars.
69
169000
2000
現在他們開始買起車子。
03:06
And what happened a month ago
70
171000
2000
就在一個月前
03:08
was that the Chinese company, Geely,
71
173000
2000
一家中國企業——吉利汽車
03:10
they acquired the Volvo company,
72
175000
3000
買下了 Volvo
03:13
and then finally the Swedes understood that
73
178000
2000
於是瑞典人終於明白
03:15
something big had happened in the world.
74
180000
2000
有什麽大事發生了。
03:17
(Laughter)
75
182000
3000
（笑聲）
03:20
So there they are.
76
185000
2000
就是這樣
03:22
And the tragedy is that the two billion over here
77
187000
3000
但悲傷的是，這裡的二十億人
03:25
that is struggling for food and shoes,
78
190000
3000
爲了食物和鞋子掙扎奮鬥的人們，
03:28
they are still almost as poor
79
193000
2000
依然和五十年前一樣
03:30
as they were 50 years ago.
80
195000
2000
貧窮
03:32
The new thing is that
81
197000
2000
新的不同之處是
03:34
we have the biggest pile of billions, the three billions here,
82
199000
3000
在這，有一群很大的有三十億人口，
03:37
which are also becoming emerging economies,
83
202000
3000
成為新興國家經濟的一員，
03:40
because they are quite healthy, relatively well-educated,
84
205000
3000
因為他們相當健康、受過相對良好的教育、
03:43
and they already also have two to three children
85
208000
2000
平均每個婦女
03:45
per woman, as those [richer also] have.
86
210000
3000
也有兩到三個孩子了
03:48
And their aspiration now
87
213000
2000
而現在他們的志願
03:50
is, of course, to buy a bicycle,
88
215000
3000
當然是買台腳踏車，
03:53
and then later on they would like to have a motorbike also.
89
218000
3000
在過不久，他們也許會想買一台摩托車
03:56
But this is the world
90
221000
3000
這就是我們現今
03:59
we have today,
91
224000
2000
所處的世界，
04:01
no longer any gap.
92
226000
2000
再也沒有鴻溝了。
04:03
But the distance from the poorest here, the very poorest,
93
228000
3000
但是，窮人和有錢人
04:06
to the very richest over here is wider than ever.
94
231000
3000
之間的距離卻比以往還要大了
04:09
But there is a continuous world
95
234000
2000
這裡有個持續演變的世界
04:11
from walking, biking,
96
236000
2000
從步行，腳踏車，
04:13
driving, flying --
97
238000
2000
開車，到坐飛機——
04:15
there are people on all levels,
98
240000
2000
包含各階段的人
04:17
and most people tend to be somewhere in the middle.
99
242000
3000
但大多數人存在於中間某處
04:21
This is the new world we have today
100
246000
2000
這就是我們今日所處的世界
04:23
in 2010.
101
248000
2000
在 2010 年。
04:26
And what will happen in the future?
102
251000
3000
那麼，未來會發生什麽事呢？
04:30
Well, I'm going to project
103
255000
2000
我將會預測
04:32
into 2050.
104
257000
2000
2050 年的世界。
04:34
I was in Shanghai recently,
105
259000
3000
最近我去了上海一趟，
04:37
and I listened to what's happening in China,
106
262000
2000
我聽到在中國發生的事。
04:39
and it's pretty sure that they will catch up,
107
264000
3000
我確信他們會迅速追上，
04:42
just as Japan did.
108
267000
2000
就像日本一樣
04:44
All the projections [say that] this one [billion] will [only] grow with
109
269000
2000
所有的預測——這一區的人口會成長
04:46
one to two or three percent.
110
271000
2000
1%到3%
04:48
[But this second] grows with seven, eight percent, and then they will end up here.
111
273000
3000
這一區會增長7%、8%，然後停留在這裡，
04:51
They will start flying.
112
276000
2000
他們會開始起飛
04:53
And these
113
278000
2000
而這些
04:55
lower or middle income countries, the emerging income countries,
114
280000
3000
中低收入國家，也就是新興國家，
04:58
they will also forge forwards economically.
115
283000
3000
也會在經濟上往前進
05:01
And if,
116
286000
2000
而且，
05:03
but only if,
117
288000
2000
只有在
05:05
we invest in the right green technology --
118
290000
3000
我們正確地投資綠色科技的前提下——
05:08
so that we can avoid severe climate change,
119
293000
2000
我們才能避免嚴重的氣候變遷問題，
05:10
and energy can still be relatively cheap --
120
295000
3000
能源也可以維持便宜的價格——
05:13
then they will move all the way up here.
121
298000
3000
然後，他們才得以進一步移到這裡
05:16
And they will start to buy
122
301000
2000
接著，他們會開始買
05:18
electric cars.
123
303000
2000
電動車。
05:20
This is what we will find there.
124
305000
3000
這是我們目前所發現的情況
05:23
So what about the poorest two billion?
125
308000
2000
那麼，關於那些最貧窮的二十億人口...
05:25
What about the poorest two billion here?
126
310000
3000
那些最貧窮的二十億人口將會如何呢？
05:28
Will they move on?
127
313000
2000
他們會往前進嗎？
05:30
Well, here population [growth] comes in
128
315000
2000
嗯，這裡加入了新的人口，
05:32
because there [among emerging economies] we already have two to three children per woman,
129
317000
3000
在那兒，平均每個女人已經擁有兩、到三個孩子，
05:35
family planning is widely used,
130
320000
2000
在生育計劃的實施下，
05:37
and population growth is coming to an end.
131
322000
2000
人口成長即將告一段落
05:39
Here [among the poorest], population is growing.
132
324000
3000
在這裡，人口正在增加，
05:42
So these [poorest] two billion will, in the next decades,
133
327000
3000
所以，在接下來的二十年中，這二十億人
05:45
increase to three billion,
134
330000
2000
會增加到三十億
05:47
and they will thereafter
135
332000
2000
此後，他們又將
05:49
increase to four billion.
136
334000
2000
成長到四十億
05:51
There is nothing --
137
336000
2000
除了核戰之外
05:53
but a nuclear war of a kind we've never seen --
138
338000
3000
沒有其他東西能夠
05:56
that can stop this [growth] from happening.
139
341000
3000
阻止他們人口繼續成長
05:59
Because we already have this [growth] in process.
140
344000
3000
因為這情況已經正在發生
06:02
But if, and only if,
141
347000
2000
只有在，
06:04
[the poorest] get out of poverty,
142
349000
2000
他們脫離貧窮的情況下，
06:06
they get education, they get improved child survival,
143
351000
2000
像是受教育、改善兒童存活率等，
06:08
they can buy a bicycle and a cell phone and come [to live] here,
144
353000
3000
他們才可以買腳踏車、手機，並且來到這，
06:11
then population growth
145
356000
2000
於是人口的成長
06:13
will stop in 2050.
146
358000
3000
才可以在 2050 年時停頓下來。
06:16
We cannot have people on this level
147
361000
2000
不能有人留在這個階段
06:18
looking for food and shoes
148
363000
2000
找食物、找鞋子，
06:20
because then we get continued population growth.
149
365000
3000
因為如此一來，人口成長將持續擴大。
06:23
And let me show you why
150
368000
2000
讓我透過
06:25
by converting back to the old-time
151
370000
3000
以往的數位科技
06:28
digital technology.
152
373000
2000
告訴你爲什麽
06:30
Here I have on the screen
153
375000
2000
在螢幕上，我有
06:32
my country bubbles.
154
377000
2000
國家泡泡
06:34
Every bubble is a country. The size is population.
155
379000
2000
每個泡泡代表國家，尺寸代表人口數量，
06:36
The colors show the continent.
156
381000
2000
顏色代表不同的大陸區塊
06:38
The yellow on there is the Americas;
157
383000
2000
在那兒，黃色是美洲；
06:40
dark blue is Africa; brown is Europe;
158
385000
2000
深藍色是非洲；棕色是歐洲；
06:42
green is the Middle East
159
387000
3000
綠色是中東；
06:45
and this light blue is South Asia.
160
390000
2000
淺藍色是南亞
06:47
That's India and this is China. Size is population.
161
392000
2000
那是印度，這是中國。大小代表人口數量
06:49
Here I have children per woman:
162
394000
3000
這裡是 每個女人的小孩數目，
06:52
two children, four children, six children, eight children --
163
397000
2000
兩個孩子、四個孩子、六個孩子、八個孩子——
06:54
big families, small families.
164
399000
3000
大家庭、小家庭
06:57
The year is 1960.
165
402000
2000
這是 1960 年
06:59
And down here, child survival,
166
404000
2000
下面這裡是兒童的存活率，
07:01
the percentage of children surviving childhood
167
406000
2000
自孩提時期一直到上學為止
07:03
up to starting school:
168
408000
2000
兒童存活的百分比率
07:05
60 percent, 70 percent, 80 percent, 90,
169
410000
3000
60%、70%、80%、90%
07:08
and almost 100 percent, as we have today
170
413000
2000
接近100%，如同我們今天
07:10
in the wealthiest and healthiest countries.
171
415000
2000
最富裕和最健康國家的比率
07:12
But look, this is the world my teacher talked about in 1960:
172
417000
3000
看，這就是我老師在 1960 年所談的世界，
07:15
one billion Western world here --
173
420000
3000
西方世界有十億人，
07:18
high child-survival, small families --
174
423000
3000
高度的兒童存活率，小家庭
07:21
and all the rest,
175
426000
2000
而其他所有地區，
07:23
the rainbow of developing countries,
176
428000
2000
這些開發中國家的彩虹區域裡，
07:25
with very large families
177
430000
2000
都是大家庭
07:27
and poor child survival.
178
432000
2000
和低度的兒童存活率。
07:29
What has happened? I start the world. Here we go.
179
434000
3000
發生了什麽事？來吧，讓這世界開始吧！
07:32
Can you see, as the years pass by, child survival is increasing?
180
437000
3000
看到了嗎？隨著年份的推移，兒童存活率上升了
07:35
They get soap, hygiene, education,
181
440000
2000
他們有肥皂、衛生、教育、
07:37
vaccination, penicillin
182
442000
2000
疫苗接種、抗生素
07:39
and then family planning. Family size is decreasing.
183
444000
3000
接著是家庭計劃，家庭的規模正逐漸縮小，
07:42
[When] they get up to 90-percent child survival, then families decrease,
184
447000
3000
兒童存活率上升至 90%，家庭人口減少，
07:45
and most of the Arab countries in the Middle East
185
450000
2000
大多數的中東阿拉伯國家
07:47
is falling down there [to small families].
186
452000
2000
降到下方來
07:49
Look, Bangladesh catching up with India.
187
454000
2000
看，孟加拉趕上印度，
07:51
The whole emerging world
188
456000
3000
整個新興國家世界
07:54
joins the Western world
189
459000
2000
加入了西方世界
07:56
with good child survival
190
461000
2000
有了好的兒童存活率
07:58
and small family size,
191
463000
2000
和小家庭的規模。
08:00
but we still have the poorest billion.
192
465000
2000
但，我們仍然有最貧窮的十億人口
08:02
Can you see the poorest billion,
193
467000
2000
你們看到最貧困的十億人了嗎？
08:04
those [two] boxes I had over here?
194
469000
3000
在那箱子那邊？
08:07
They are still up here.
195
472000
2000
他們仍然在那
08:09
And they still have a child survival
196
474000
2000
兒童存活率依然
08:11
of only 70 to 80 percent,
197
476000
2000
只有70%~80%
08:13
meaning that if you have six children born,
198
478000
2000
這意謂著，如果六個孩子出生，
08:15
there will be at least four who survive
199
480000
2000
至少有四個可以活下來
08:17
to the next generation.
200
482000
2000
成為下一代
08:19
And the population will double in one generation.
201
484000
3000
人口數會在一個世代之間成長兩倍
08:22
So the only way
202
487000
2000
因此，唯一可以使
08:24
of really getting world population [growth] to stop
203
489000
3000
世界人口停止成長的方法
08:27
is to continue to improve child survival
204
492000
2000
就是繼續提高兒童的存活率
08:29
to 90 percent.
205
494000
2000
提高到 90%
08:31
That's why investments by Gates Foundation,
206
496000
2000
這就是爲什麽比爾蓋茲基金會、
08:33
UNICEF and aid organizations,
207
498000
2000
聯合國兒童基金會、其他組織、
08:35
together with national government in the poorest countries,
208
500000
2000
和最貧窮國家政府的投資
08:37
are so good;
209
502000
2000
是不錯的
08:39
because they are actually
210
504000
2000
因為，他們事實上
08:41
helping us to reach
211
506000
2000
幫我們達到
08:43
a sustainable population size of the world.
212
508000
2000
世界人口的永續規模
08:45
We can stop at nine billion if we do the right things.
213
510000
3000
如果我們做對的事，可以使人口停在九十億
08:48
Child survival is the new green.
214
513000
3000
兒童存活率是一個新的夢想，
08:51
It's only by child survival
215
516000
2000
只有提高兒童存活率，
08:53
that we will stop population growth.
216
518000
3000
才可以停止人口成長。
08:56
And will it happen?
217
521000
2000
那再接下來會發生什麽事？
08:58
Well, I'm not an optimist,
218
523000
3000
我不是樂觀的人，
09:01
neither am I a pessimist.
219
526000
2000
也不是悲觀主義者；
09:03
I'm a very serious "possibilist."
220
528000
3000
我是一個「可能主義者」（possibilist）
09:06
It's a new category where we take emotion apart,
221
531000
3000
這是一個新的類別，在這裡我們拋開情感，
09:09
and we just work analytically with the world.
222
534000
2000
純粹地分析這個世界
09:11
It can be done.
223
536000
3000
這個問題是可以解決的
09:14
We can have a much more just world.
224
539000
3000
我們可以擁有一個更公平的世界
09:17
With green technology
225
542000
2000
用綠色科技
09:19
and with investments to alleviate poverty,
226
544000
2000
用投資減緩貧窮
09:21
and global governance,
227
546000
2000
加上全球治理，
09:23
the world can become like this.
228
548000
2000
世界可以變得像這樣
09:25
And look at the position of the old West.
229
550000
3000
看看舊西方西方國家的位置
09:28
Remember when this blue box was all alone,
230
553000
3000
還記得，當這邊只有藍色箱子的時候，
09:31
leading the world, living its own life.
231
556000
3000
領導全世界，過自己的生活
09:34
This will not happen [again].
232
559000
2000
這不會再發生了。
09:36
The role of the old West in the new world
233
561000
3000
過去西方世界的角色，在新的世界裡
09:39
is to become the foundation
234
564000
2000
會成為現代社會的
09:41
of the modern world --
235
566000
2000
基礎——
09:43
nothing more, nothing less.
236
568000
2000
不多不少剛剛好
09:45
But it's a very important role.
237
570000
2000
但他是個非常重要的角色
09:47
Do it well and get used to it.
238
572000
2000
把事情做好，適應這個角色
09:49
Thank you very much.
239
574000
2000
謝謝大家。
09:51
(Applause)
240
576000
4000
（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionaryIn Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
Why you should listen
Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.
What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.
Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)
Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.
Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com