TED@Cannes
Hans Rosling: Global population growth, box by box
Rahvastiku kasvust
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The world's population will grow to 9 billion over the next 50 years -- and only by raising the living standards of the poorest can we check population growth. This is the paradoxical answer that Hans Rosling unveils at TED@Cannes using colorful new data display technology (you'll see).
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I still remember the day in school
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Mäletan jätkuvalt üht koolipäeva,
00:18
when our teacher told us
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kui õpetaja ütles meile,
00:21
that the world population had become
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et maailma rahvaarv on nüüd
00:23
three billion people,
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kolm miljardit.
00:25
and that was in 1960.
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See oli 1960. aastal.
00:29
I'm going to talk now about
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Nüüd räägin teile sellest,
00:31
how world population has changed from that year
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kuidas on rahvaarv
pärast seda muutunud
pärast seda muutunud
00:33
and into the future,
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ja kuidas hakkab muutuma tulevikus.
00:35
but I will not use digital technology,
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Kuid ma ei kasuta digitehnoloogiat
00:38
as I've done during my first five TEDTalks.
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nagu olen viie varasema
TED-i kõne jooksul teinud.
TED-i kõne jooksul teinud.
00:41
Instead, I have progressed,
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Olen teinud edusamme
00:44
and I am, today, launching
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ja tulen täna õpetamisel välja
00:46
a brand new analog teaching technology
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IKEAst saadud uhiuue
00:49
that I picked up from IKEA:
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analoogtehnoloogiaga:
00:51
this box.
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see kast.
00:53
This box contains one billion people.
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Siin kastis on miljard inimest.
00:55
And our teacher told us
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Õpetaja ütles meile,
00:57
that the industrialized world, 1960,
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et tööstusriikides oli 1960. aastal
01:00
had one billion people.
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miljard inimest.
01:02
In the developing world, she said,
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Arengumaades oli tema sõnul
01:04
they had two billion people.
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kaks miljardit inimest.
01:06
And they lived away then.
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Tollal elasid nad eraldi.
01:08
There was a big gap between
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Tööstusriikide miljardi inimese
01:10
the one billion in the industrialized world
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ja arengumaade kahe miljardi
01:12
and the two billion in the developing world.
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inimese vahel oli suur lõhe.
01:15
In the industrialized world,
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Tööstusriikide inimesed
01:17
people were healthy,
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olid terved,
01:19
educated, rich,
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haritud, rikkad
01:21
and they had small families.
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ja nende perekonnad olid väikesed.
01:23
And their aspiration
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Nende suur soov
01:25
was to buy a car.
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oli osta auto.
01:27
And in 1960, all Swedes were saving
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1960. aastal hoidsid kõik
rootslased raha kokku,
rootslased raha kokku,
01:30
to try to buy a Volvo like this.
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et oleks võimalik osta selline Volvo.
01:33
This was the economic level at which Sweden was.
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Selline oli Rootsi tolleaegne
majanduslik tase.
majanduslik tase.
01:36
But in contrast to this,
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Selle vastandina
01:38
in the developing world, far away,
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oli kaugel elava arengumaade
01:40
the aspiration of the average family there
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rahvastiku keskmise perekonna
suur soov see,
suur soov see,
01:43
was to have food for the day.
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et neil oleks söök laual.
01:46
They were saving
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Nad panid raha kõrvale,
01:48
to be able to buy a pair of shoes.
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et osta paar kingi.
01:51
There was an enormous gap in the world
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Minu üles kasvamise aegu
01:53
when I grew up.
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valitses maailmas suur lõhe.
01:55
And this gap between the West and the rest
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See lääne ja muu maailma vaheline lõhe
01:58
has created a mindset of the world,
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on tekitanud maailma kohta
arusaama,
arusaama,
02:01
which we still use linguistically
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mida me keeleliselt jätkuvalt
02:03
when we talk about "the West"
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kasutame, kui räägime
02:05
and "the Developing World."
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„läänest“ ja „arengumaadest“.
02:07
But the world has changed,
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Kuid maailm on muutunud.
02:09
and it's overdue to upgrade that mindset
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On viimane aeg seda mõista,
02:12
and that taxonomy of the world, and to understand it.
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ajakohastada meie arusaama maailmast
ja selle taksonoomiast.
ja selle taksonoomiast.
02:15
And that's what I'm going to show you,
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Seda ma teile näitangi.
02:17
because since 1960
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Kuna 1960. aastast
02:20
what has happened in the world up to 2010
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2010. aastani
02:23
is that a staggering
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on maailma rahvaarv üllatavalt palju
02:25
four billion people
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– nelja miljardi inimese võrra –
02:27
have been added to the world population.
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suurenenud.
02:29
Just look how many.
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Vaadake, kui palju.
02:31
The world population has doubled
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Minu kooliskäimise ajast saadik
02:33
since I went to school.
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on maailma rahvaarv kahekordistunud.
02:37
And of course, there's been economic growth in the West.
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Loomulikult on läänes aset
leidnud majanduskasv.
leidnud majanduskasv.
02:40
A lot of companies have happened to grow the economy,
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Paljud ettevõtted on majandust kasvatanud.
02:43
so the Western population moved over to here.
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Seega lääne rahvastik liikus siia poole.
02:46
And now their aspiration is not only to have a car.
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Nüüd ei ole nende soov
kõigest autot omada.
kõigest autot omada.
02:49
Now they want to have a holiday on a very remote destination
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Nüüd soovivad nad väga
kaugele puhkama sõita
kaugele puhkama sõita
02:52
and they want to fly.
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ning sõita sinna lennukiga.
02:54
So this is where they are today.
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Selline on nende olukord praegu.
02:56
And the most successful of the developing countries,
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Samal ajal on kõige edukamad arengumaad
02:59
they have moved on, you know,
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samuti edasi liikunud ja neist on meie
03:01
and they have become emerging economies, we call them.
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nimetuse kohaselt saanud
tärkava turumajandusega riigid.
tärkava turumajandusega riigid.
03:04
They are now buying cars.
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Nüüd ostavad nemad autosid.
03:06
And what happened a month ago
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Kuu aega tagasi ostis
03:08
was that the Chinese company, Geely,
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Hiina ettevõte Geely ära Volvo.
03:10
they acquired the Volvo company,
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Seda nähes said ka
03:13
and then finally the Swedes understood that
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rootslased viimaks aru,
03:15
something big had happened in the world.
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et maailmas on midagi olulist toimunud.
03:17
(Laughter)
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(Naer)
03:20
So there they are.
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Selline on nende olukord.
03:22
And the tragedy is that the two billion over here
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Tragöödia on selles, et need
kaks miljardit inimest,
kaks miljardit inimest,
03:25
that is struggling for food and shoes,
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kel on raskusi toidu ja jalanõude
hankimisega,
hankimisega,
03:28
they are still almost as poor
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on jätkuvalt peaaegu sama vaesed
03:30
as they were 50 years ago.
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kui 50 aastat tagasi.
03:32
The new thing is that
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Uus on olukorra juures see,
03:34
we have the biggest pile of billions, the three billions here,
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et suurim miljardite kogum –
kolm miljardit – on siin.
kolm miljardit – on siin.
03:37
which are also becoming emerging economies,
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Neist saavad samuti tärkava
turumajandusega riigid,
turumajandusega riigid,
03:40
because they are quite healthy, relatively well-educated,
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kuna nad on üsna terved,
suhteliselt hästi haritud
suhteliselt hästi haritud
03:43
and they already also have two to three children
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ja neil on ühe naise
kohta kaks-kolm last
kohta kaks-kolm last
03:45
per woman, as those [richer also] have.
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nagu neil teistel [rikkamatel].
03:48
And their aspiration now
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Nüüd on loomulikult nende suur soov
03:50
is, of course, to buy a bicycle,
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osta jalgratas ja
03:53
and then later on they would like to have a motorbike also.
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hiljem sooviksid nad ka mootorratast.
03:56
But this is the world
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Kuid selline on
03:59
we have today,
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meie maailm praegu:
04:01
no longer any gap.
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lõhet justkui enam poleks.
04:03
But the distance from the poorest here, the very poorest,
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Samas kõige vaesemate
inimeste juurest
inimeste juurest
04:06
to the very richest over here is wider than ever.
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kõige rikkamate inimesteni siin
on teekond pikem kui varem.
on teekond pikem kui varem.
04:09
But there is a continuous world
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Kuid tegemist on järjepidava maailmaga,
04:11
from walking, biking,
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jala ja rattaga
liiklemisest,
liiklemisest,
04:13
driving, flying --
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kuni auto ja lennukiga liikelmiseni –
04:15
there are people on all levels,
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igal tasandil on inimesi.
04:17
and most people tend to be somewhere in the middle.
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Enamik inimesi on kuskil keskel.
04:21
This is the new world we have today
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Praegu, 2010. aastal on
04:23
in 2010.
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maailma uus ülesehitus selline.
04:26
And what will happen in the future?
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Mis toimub tulevikus?
04:30
Well, I'm going to project
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Vaatan aastasse
04:32
into 2050.
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2050.
04:34
I was in Shanghai recently,
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Viibisin hiljuti Shanghais
04:37
and I listened to what's happening in China,
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ja kuulasin, mis toimub Hiinas.
04:39
and it's pretty sure that they will catch up,
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On üsna kindel, et nad jõuavad järele.
04:42
just as Japan did.
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Nagu jõudis Jaapan.
04:44
All the projections [say that] this one [billion] will [only] grow with
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Kõikide ennustuste kohaselt suureneb
04:46
one to two or three percent.
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see alumine siin 1–3% võrra.
04:48
[But this second] grows with seven, eight percent, and then they will end up here.
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Kuid see teine suureneb 7-8% võrra
ning mõlemad maanduvad siin.
ning mõlemad maanduvad siin.
04:51
They will start flying.
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Hakkavad lennukiga sõitma.
04:53
And these
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Ja needki
04:55
lower or middle income countries, the emerging income countries,
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väikse või keskmise sissetulekuga,
tärkava turumajandusega
tärkava turumajandusega
04:58
they will also forge forwards economically.
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riigid rühivad majanduslikus mõttes edasi.
05:01
And if,
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Ja siis,
05:03
but only if,
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ja ainult siis, kui
05:05
we invest in the right green technology --
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me investeerime õigesse keskkonnahoidlikku
tehnoloogiasse
tehnoloogiasse
05:08
so that we can avoid severe climate change,
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– et vältida tõsiseid
kliimamuutusi
kliimamuutusi
05:10
and energy can still be relatively cheap --
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ning energia oleks jätkuvalt
suhteliselt odav –
suhteliselt odav –
05:13
then they will move all the way up here.
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tõusevad nad siia üles välja.
05:16
And they will start to buy
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Ja hakkavad
05:18
electric cars.
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soetama elektriautosid.
05:20
This is what we will find there.
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Siis läheb nii.
05:23
So what about the poorest two billion?
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Kuid kõige vaesemad 2 miljardit inimest?
05:25
What about the poorest two billion here?
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Mis saab kõige vaesemast
kahest miljardist siin?
kahest miljardist siin?
05:28
Will they move on?
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Kas nad liiguvad edasi?
05:30
Well, here population [growth] comes in
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Siin mängib oma osa rahvastiku kasv,
05:32
because there [among emerging economies] we already have two to three children per woman,
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kuna tärkava turumajandusega riikides
on naise kohta 2-3 last,
on naise kohta 2-3 last,
05:35
family planning is widely used,
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paljud planeerivad peret
05:37
and population growth is coming to an end.
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ja rahvastiku kasv aeglustub.
05:39
Here [among the poorest], population is growing.
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Siin vaeseimate hulgas aga
rahvastik suureneb.
rahvastik suureneb.
05:42
So these [poorest] two billion will, in the next decades,
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Nii et kõige vaesemast 2 miljardist
saab järgmiste aastakümnete
saab järgmiste aastakümnete
05:45
increase to three billion,
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jooksul kolm miljardit
05:47
and they will thereafter
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ning seejärel
05:49
increase to four billion.
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neli miljardit inimest.
05:51
There is nothing --
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Seda kasvu ei
05:53
but a nuclear war of a kind we've never seen --
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pidurda mitte miski
05:56
that can stop this [growth] from happening.
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peale enneolematu tuumasõja.
05:59
Because we already have this [growth] in process.
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Kuna kasv juba toimub.
06:02
But if, and only if,
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Ent kui
06:04
[the poorest] get out of poverty,
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kõige vaesemad pääsevad
vaesusest,
vaesusest,
06:06
they get education, they get improved child survival,
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saavad haridust,
laste ellujäämine kasvab,
laste ellujäämine kasvab,
06:08
they can buy a bicycle and a cell phone and come [to live] here,
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nad suudavad endale osta jalgratta
ja mobiiltelefoni
ja mobiiltelefoni
06:11
then population growth
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ning nad liiguvad siia poole,
06:13
will stop in 2050.
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siis peatub rahvaarvu kasv 2050. aastal.
06:16
We cannot have people on this level
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Me ei saa lubada seda,
et inimesed
et inimesed
06:18
looking for food and shoes
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on sellel,
"toidu-ja-jalanõude" tasemel,
"toidu-ja-jalanõude" tasemel,
06:20
because then we get continued population growth.
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kuna siis jääbki rahvaarv
pidevalt kasvama.
pidevalt kasvama.
06:23
And let me show you why
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Näitan teile, miks,
06:25
by converting back to the old-time
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pöördudes tagasi vanaaegse
06:28
digital technology.
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digitehnoloogia juurde.
06:30
Here I have on the screen
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Siin ekraanil on
06:32
my country bubbles.
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riike kujutavad mullid.
06:34
Every bubble is a country. The size is population.
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Iga mull on üks riik.
Suurus on rahvaarv.
Suurus on rahvaarv.
06:36
The colors show the continent.
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Värvid näitavad mandrit.
06:38
The yellow on there is the Americas;
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Kollane on Ameerika,
06:40
dark blue is Africa; brown is Europe;
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tumesinine Aafrika, pruun Euroopa,
06:42
green is the Middle East
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roheline Lähis-Ida
06:45
and this light blue is South Asia.
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ja helesinine Lõuna-Aasia.
06:47
That's India and this is China. Size is population.
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Need on India ja Hiina.
Suurus on rahvaarv.
Suurus on rahvaarv.
06:49
Here I have children per woman:
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Siin on lapsed naise kohta:
06:52
two children, four children, six children, eight children --
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2 last, 4 last,
6 last, 8 last.
6 last, 8 last.
06:54
big families, small families.
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Suured perekonnad, väikesed perekonnad.
06:57
The year is 1960.
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Aasta on 1960.
06:59
And down here, child survival,
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Siin all on ellujäävad lapsed.
07:01
the percentage of children surviving childhood
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Nende laste protsent, kes elavad
07:03
up to starting school:
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vähemalt koolieani.
07:05
60 percent, 70 percent, 80 percent, 90,
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60%, 70%, 80%, 90%
07:08
and almost 100 percent, as we have today
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ja peaaegu 100% –
nagu on ka tänapäeval
nagu on ka tänapäeval
07:10
in the wealthiest and healthiest countries.
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jõukaimates ja terveimates riikides.
07:12
But look, this is the world my teacher talked about in 1960:
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See on maailm, millest
minu õpetaja 1960. aastal rääkis.
minu õpetaja 1960. aastal rääkis.
07:15
one billion Western world here --
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Miljard lääne inimest siin.
07:18
high child-survival, small families --
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Suur laste ellujäämise määr,
väikesed perekonnad.
väikesed perekonnad.
07:21
and all the rest,
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Ja kõik teised,
07:23
the rainbow of developing countries,
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kogu arengumaade vikerkaar.
07:25
with very large families
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Väga suured perekonnad,
07:27
and poor child survival.
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väike laste ellujäämise määr.
07:29
What has happened? I start the world. Here we go.
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Mis on juhtunud?
Panen maailma käima. Niisiis.
Panen maailma käima. Niisiis.
07:32
Can you see, as the years pass by, child survival is increasing?
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Näete, et aastate möödudes laste
ellujäämise määr suureneb?
ellujäämise määr suureneb?
07:35
They get soap, hygiene, education,
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Neil on seep, hügieen, haridus,
07:37
vaccination, penicillin
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vaktsiinid, penitsilliin,
07:39
and then family planning. Family size is decreasing.
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pereplaneerimine.
Perekonna suurus väheneb.
Perekonna suurus väheneb.
07:42
[When] they get up to 90-percent child survival, then families decrease,
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Kui laste ellujäämine tõuseb 90%-ni,
väheneb perekonna suurus.
väheneb perekonna suurus.
07:45
and most of the Arab countries in the Middle East
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Enamik Lähis-Ida araabia maadest
07:47
is falling down there [to small families].
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kukuvad sinna alla, kus
pered on väikesed.
pered on väikesed.
07:49
Look, Bangladesh catching up with India.
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Vaadake, Bangladesh jõuab Indiale järele.
07:51
The whole emerging world
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Kõik arengumaad
07:54
joins the Western world
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liituvad läänemaailmaga,
07:56
with good child survival
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kus on laste ellujäämisega lood hästi
07:58
and small family size,
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ja perekonnad väikesed.
08:00
but we still have the poorest billion.
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Siiski on kõige vaesem
miljard inimest.
miljard inimest.
08:02
Can you see the poorest billion,
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Kas näete kõige vaesemat
miljardit,
miljardit,
08:04
those [two] boxes I had over here?
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neid kahte kasti, mis mul
seal üleval olid?
seal üleval olid?
08:07
They are still up here.
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Nad on jätkuvalt üleval.
08:09
And they still have a child survival
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Nende laste ellujäämise määr
08:11
of only 70 to 80 percent,
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on jätkuvalt vaid 70–80%,
08:13
meaning that if you have six children born,
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mis tähendab seda,
et kui sünnib 6 last,
et kui sünnib 6 last,
08:15
there will be at least four who survive
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näeb neist järgmist põlvkonda
08:17
to the next generation.
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vähemalt 4.
08:19
And the population will double in one generation.
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Ühe põlvkonna jooksul
rahvaarv kahekordistub.
rahvaarv kahekordistub.
08:22
So the only way
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Seega on ainus viis
08:24
of really getting world population [growth] to stop
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maailma rahvaarvu kasvu
tegelikult peatada
tegelikult peatada
08:27
is to continue to improve child survival
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jätkata laste ellujäämise määra
08:29
to 90 percent.
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tõstmist 90%-ni.
08:31
That's why investments by Gates Foundation,
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Sellepärast on Gatesi Sihtasutuse,
08:33
UNICEF and aid organizations,
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UNICEF-i, abiorganisatsioonide
08:35
together with national government in the poorest countries,
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ja vaeseimate riikide valitsuste
08:37
are so good;
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investeeringud head.
08:39
because they are actually
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Need aitavad meil tegelikult
08:41
helping us to reach
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saavutada rahvaarvu,
08:43
a sustainable population size of the world.
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mis oleks jätkusuutlik.
08:45
We can stop at nine billion if we do the right things.
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Õigesti toimides saame 9 miljardi
juures pidama jääda.
juures pidama jääda.
08:48
Child survival is the new green.
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Laste ellujäämine on uus roheline.
08:51
It's only by child survival
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Vaid laste ellujäämise läbi
08:53
that we will stop population growth.
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saame rahvaarvu kasvu pidurdada.
08:56
And will it happen?
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Kas see läheb nii?
08:58
Well, I'm not an optimist,
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Ma pole optimist
09:01
neither am I a pessimist.
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ega pessimist,
09:03
I'm a very serious "possibilist."
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olen väga tõsine võimaluste otsija.
09:06
It's a new category where we take emotion apart,
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Tegemist on kategooriaga,
kust on välja jäetud emotsioonid
kust on välja jäetud emotsioonid
09:09
and we just work analytically with the world.
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ja maailmaga käiakse ümber analüütiliselt.
09:11
It can be done.
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Seda on võimalik teha.
09:14
We can have a much more just world.
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Maailma saab palju õiglasemaks muuta.
09:17
With green technology
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Selline võib maailm olla siis,
09:19
and with investments to alleviate poverty,
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kui kasutatakse rohelist
tehnoloogiat
tehnoloogiat
09:21
and global governance,
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investeeritakse vaesuse leevendamisse
09:23
the world can become like this.
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ja üleilmsesse juhtimisse.
09:25
And look at the position of the old West.
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Vaadake vana läänemaailma olukorda.
09:28
Remember when this blue box was all alone,
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Mäletate, kui see sinine kast oli üksi
09:31
leading the world, living its own life.
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maailmas esikohal, elas oma elu.
09:34
This will not happen [again].
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Seda enam uuesti juhtuda ei saa.
09:36
The role of the old West in the new world
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Uues maailmas on vana läänemaailma
09:39
is to become the foundation
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roll olla kaasaegse
09:41
of the modern world --
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maailma alustala.
09:43
nothing more, nothing less.
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Ei midagi enamat, ei midagi vähemat.
09:45
But it's a very important role.
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Kuid tegemist on väga olulise rolliga.
09:47
Do it well and get used to it.
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Saage sellega hästi hakkama ja
harjuge.
harjuge.
09:49
Thank you very much.
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Suur tänu teile.
09:51
(Applause)
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(Aplaus)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionaryIn Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
Why you should listen
Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.
What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.
Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)
Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.
Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com