TED@Cannes
Hans Rosling: Global population growth, box by box
Hans Rosling o rastu globalne populacije
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Svetska populacija će porasti na 9 milijarde za sledećih 50 godina -- i jedino porastom standarda života najsiromašnijih možemo kontrolisati rast populacije. Ovo je paradoksalni odgovor koji Hans Rosling otkriva na TED@Cannes koristeći novu šaroliku tehnologiju za prikazivanje podataka (videćete)
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I still remember the day in school
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Još uvek se sećam dana u školi
00:18
when our teacher told us
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kada nam je učiteljica rekla
00:21
that the world population had become
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da je svetska populacija dostigla
00:23
three billion people,
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tri milijarde ljudi.
00:25
and that was in 1960.
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A to je bilo 1960.
00:29
I'm going to talk now about
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A ja ću sada govoriti o
00:31
how world population has changed from that year
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tome kako se svetska populacija menjala od te godine
00:33
and into the future,
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pa sve do u budućnost.
00:35
but I will not use digital technology,
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Ali neću koristiti digitalnu tehnologiju
00:38
as I've done during my first five TEDTalks.
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kao što sam radio u svojih prvih pet TED govora.
00:41
Instead, I have progressed,
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Umesto toga, ja sam napredovao.
00:44
and I am, today, launching
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I ja, danas, objavljujem
00:46
a brand new analog teaching technology
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sasvim novu analognu tehnologiju za poučavanje
00:49
that I picked up from IKEA:
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koji sam našao u IKEA-i:
00:51
this box.
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ovu kutiju.
00:53
This box contains one billion people.
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Ova kutija sadrži jednu milijardu ljudi.
00:55
And our teacher told us
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A naša učiteljica nam je rekla
00:57
that the industrialized world, 1960,
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da je industrijalizovani svet, 1960.,
01:00
had one billion people.
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imao jednu milijardu ljudi.
01:02
In the developing world, she said,
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A svet u razvoju, rekla je,
01:04
they had two billion people.
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ima dve milijarde ljudi.
01:06
And they lived away then.
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I oni su onda živeli daleko.
01:08
There was a big gap between
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Bio je veliki jaz između
01:10
the one billion in the industrialized world
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jedne milijarde industrijalizovanog sveta
01:12
and the two billion in the developing world.
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i dve milijarde sveta u razvoju.
01:15
In the industrialized world,
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U industrijalizovanom svetu,
01:17
people were healthy,
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ljudi su bili zdravi,
01:19
educated, rich,
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obrazovani, bogati,
01:21
and they had small families.
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i imali su male porodice.
01:23
And their aspiration
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A njihova ambicija
01:25
was to buy a car.
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je bila da kupe automobil.
01:27
And in 1960, all Swedes were saving
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I u 1960-im svi Šveđani su štedeli
01:30
to try to buy a Volvo like this.
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kako bi mogli da kupe Volvo poput ovog.
01:33
This was the economic level at which Sweden was.
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To je bila ekonomski nivo na kome se nalazila Švedska.
01:36
But in contrast to this,
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A u suprotno tome,
01:38
in the developing world, far away,
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u svetu u razvoju, negde daleko,
01:40
the aspiration of the average family there
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ambicija prosečne porodice
01:43
was to have food for the day.
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je bila da se prehrane taj dan.
01:46
They were saving
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I oni su štedeli
01:48
to be able to buy a pair of shoes.
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kako bi mogli da kupe par cipela.
01:51
There was an enormous gap in the world
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Postojao je enorman jaz u svetu
01:53
when I grew up.
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kada sam ja odrastao.
01:55
And this gap between the West and the rest
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A taj jaz između Zapada i ostatka sveta
01:58
has created a mindset of the world,
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je stvarao mentalni sklop sveta
02:01
which we still use linguistically
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koji još lingvistički koristimo
02:03
when we talk about "the West"
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kada govorimo o "Zapadu"
02:05
and "the Developing World."
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i "Svetu u razvoju".
02:07
But the world has changed,
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Ali svet se promenio,
02:09
and it's overdue to upgrade that mindset
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i odavno je trebalo da se promeni taj mentalni sklop,
02:12
and that taxonomy of the world, and to understand it.
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tu klasifikaciju sveta, i razumeti ga kakav je sada.
02:15
And that's what I'm going to show you,
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A to je ono što ću vam pokazati.
02:17
because since 1960
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Jer od 1960.
02:20
what has happened in the world up to 2010
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ono što se do 2010. dogodilo svetu
02:23
is that a staggering
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jest da je vrtoglavih
02:25
four billion people
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četiri milijarde ljudi
02:27
have been added to the world population.
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dodato svetskoj populaciji.
02:29
Just look how many.
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Pogledajte samo koliko.
02:31
The world population has doubled
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Svetska populacija se udvostručila
02:33
since I went to school.
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od kada sam ja išao u školu.
02:37
And of course, there's been economic growth in the West.
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I naravno, na Zapadu se dogodio ekonomski rast.
02:40
A lot of companies have happened to grow the economy,
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Veliki broj preduzeća je pomogao rastu ekonomije,
02:43
so the Western population moved over to here.
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tako se populacija sa zapada pomaknula ovde.
02:46
And now their aspiration is not only to have a car.
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I sada njihova ambicija nije da samo imaju automobil.
02:49
Now they want to have a holiday on a very remote destination
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Sada žele da provedu praznike negde daleko
02:52
and they want to fly.
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i žele tamo da lete.
02:54
So this is where they are today.
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Evo gde su danas.
02:56
And the most successful of the developing countries,
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A najuspješnije zemlje u razvoju,
02:59
they have moved on, you know,
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su se pomaknule, takođe.
03:01
and they have become emerging economies, we call them.
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Zovemo ih "nove, rastuće ekonomije".
03:04
They are now buying cars.
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I sada oni kupuju automobile.
03:06
And what happened a month ago
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I ono što se dogodilo pre mesec dana
03:08
was that the Chinese company, Geely,
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jest da je kineska kompanija, Geely,
03:10
they acquired the Volvo company,
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preuzela kompaniju Volvo.
03:13
and then finally the Swedes understood that
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I konačno su Šveđani shvatili da
03:15
something big had happened in the world.
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se nešto veliko događa u svetu.
03:17
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
03:20
So there they are.
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Eto tu su oni.
03:22
And the tragedy is that the two billion over here
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I tragedija je što se dve milijarde ovih ovde
03:25
that is struggling for food and shoes,
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[još uvek] bori za hranu i cipele,
03:28
they are still almost as poor
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oni su gotovo jednako siromišni
03:30
as they were 50 years ago.
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kao što su bili pre 50 godina.
03:32
The new thing is that
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Nova stvar je da
03:34
we have the biggest pile of billions, the three billions here,
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imamo najveću gomilu milijardi, tri milijarde ovde,
03:37
which are also becoming emerging economies,
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koji takođe postaju ekonomije u razvoju,
03:40
because they are quite healthy, relatively well-educated,
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jer su prilično zdravi, relativno dobro obrazovani,
03:43
and they already also have two to three children
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i oni jednako tako imaju dvoje ili troje dece
03:45
per woman, as those [richer also] have.
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po ženi, kao i oni bogatiji.
03:48
And their aspiration now
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I njihova ambicija sada
03:50
is, of course, to buy a bicycle,
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je, naravno, da kupe bicikl,
03:53
and then later on they would like to have a motorbike also.
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a onda bi kasnije želeli imati i motor, takođe.
03:56
But this is the world
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Ali to je svet
03:59
we have today,
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koji imamo danas.
04:01
no longer any gap.
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Nema više jazova.
04:03
But the distance from the poorest here, the very poorest,
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Ali je razlika između siromašnih ovde, najsiromašnijih,
04:06
to the very richest over here is wider than ever.
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do najbogatijih ovde, veća nego ikada.
04:09
But there is a continuous world
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Međutim postoji kontinuitet u svetu
04:11
from walking, biking,
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od hodanja, vožnje biciklom,
04:13
driving, flying --
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vožnje automobilom do letenja --
04:15
there are people on all levels,
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postoje ljudi na svim nivoima.
04:17
and most people tend to be somewhere in the middle.
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A većina ljudi je negde u sredini.
04:21
This is the new world we have today
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Ovo je novi svet kakav imamo danas
04:23
in 2010.
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u 2010.
04:26
And what will happen in the future?
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A šta će se dogoditi u budućnosti?
04:30
Well, I'm going to project
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Pokušaću da predvidim
04:32
into 2050.
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do 2050.
04:34
I was in Shanghai recently,
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Bio sam u Šangaju nedavno.
04:37
and I listened to what's happening in China,
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I slušao sam što se događa u Kini.
04:39
and it's pretty sure that they will catch up,
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I prilično je sigurno kako će nas sustignuti,
04:42
just as Japan did.
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kao što je i Japan učinio.
04:44
All the projections [say that] this one [billion] will [only] grow with
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Sve projekcije kažu da će ovi ovde da rastu samo
04:46
one to two or three percent.
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jedan do dva ili tri posto.
04:48
[But this second] grows with seven, eight percent, and then they will end up here.
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Ali ovi drugi rastu sa sedam, osam posto. I onda će oni završiti ovde.
04:51
They will start flying.
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Oni će početi da lete.
04:53
And these
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A ove
04:55
lower or middle income countries, the emerging income countries,
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zemlje s nižim ili srednjim primanjima, zemlje u razvoju,
04:58
they will also forge forwards economically.
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one će takođe krenuti ekonomski napred.
05:01
And if,
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I ako,
05:03
but only if,
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ali samo ako,
05:05
we invest in the right green technology --
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investiramo u prave zelene tehnologije --
05:08
so that we can avoid severe climate change,
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tako da izbegnemo ozbiljne klimatske promene,
05:10
and energy can still be relatively cheap --
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i da energija može da bude još uvek relativno jeftina --
05:13
then they will move all the way up here.
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onda će se oni pomaknuti skroz ovamo.
05:16
And they will start to buy
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I oni će početi da kupuju
05:18
electric cars.
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električne automobile.
05:20
This is what we will find there.
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To ćemo pronaći ovde.
05:23
So what about the poorest two billion?
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A šta je s najsiromašnije dve milijarde?
05:25
What about the poorest two billion here?
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Šta je s najsiromašnije dve milijarde ovde?
05:28
Will they move on?
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Hoće li se pomaknuti?
05:30
Well, here population [growth] comes in
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Ovde je rast stanovništva
05:32
because there [among emerging economies] we already have two to three children per woman,
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jer tu [među ekonomijama u razvoju] već imamo samo dvoje do troje dece po ženi,
05:35
family planning is widely used,
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planiranje porodice se široko koristi,
05:37
and population growth is coming to an end.
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i populacijski rast dolazi kraju.
05:39
Here [among the poorest], population is growing.
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[Ali ovde među najsiromašnijima], populacija raste.
05:42
So these [poorest] two billion will, in the next decades,
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Tako će se ove [najsiromašnije] dve milijarde, u sledeće dve dekade,
05:45
increase to three billion,
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povećati na tri milijarde.
05:47
and they will thereafter
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I onda će se nakon toga
05:49
increase to four billion.
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povećati na četiri milijarde.
05:51
There is nothing --
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Ne postoji ništa --
05:53
but a nuclear war of a kind we've never seen --
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osim nuklearnog rata kakvog svet još nije video --
05:56
that can stop this [growth] from happening.
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što može zaustaviti taj rast.
05:59
Because we already have this [growth] in process.
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Jer taj rast već imamo u procesu.
06:02
But if, and only if,
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Ali ako, i jedino ako,
06:04
[the poorest] get out of poverty,
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najsiromašniji izađu iz siromaštva,
06:06
they get education, they get improved child survival,
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dobiju obrazovanje, smanje smrtnost dece,
06:08
they can buy a bicycle and a cell phone and come [to live] here,
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mogu kupiti biciklu i mobilni i dođu [da žive] ovde,
06:11
then population growth
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onda će rast stanovništva
06:13
will stop in 2050.
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stati 2050.
06:16
We cannot have people on this level
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Ne možemo da imamo ljude na ovom nivou
06:18
looking for food and shoes
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koji traže hranu i cipele,
06:20
because then we get continued population growth.
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jer ćemo onda imati stalan rast populacije.
06:23
And let me show you why
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I dozvolite da vam pokažem zašto
06:25
by converting back to the old-time
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korištenjem starinske
06:28
digital technology.
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digitalne tehnologije.
06:30
Here I have on the screen
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Ovde na ekranu imam
06:32
my country bubbles.
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svoje balone zemalja.
06:34
Every bubble is a country. The size is population.
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Svaki balon je zemlja. Veličina je broj stanovnika.
06:36
The colors show the continent.
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Boje pokazuju kontinente.
06:38
The yellow on there is the Americas;
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Žuta predstavlja Amerike;
06:40
dark blue is Africa; brown is Europe;
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tamno plava Afriku; smeđa je Europa;
06:42
green is the Middle East
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zelena Bliski Istok;
06:45
and this light blue is South Asia.
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a ova svetlo plava je Južna Azija.
06:47
That's India and this is China. Size is population.
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Ovo je Indija, a ovo je Kina. Veličina je populacija.
06:49
Here I have children per woman:
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Ovde imam broj dece po ženi,
06:52
two children, four children, six children, eight children --
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dvoje dece, četvoro dece, šestoro dece, osmoro dece --
06:54
big families, small families.
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velike porodice [nasuprot] malih porodica.
06:57
The year is 1960.
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Godina je 1960.
06:59
And down here, child survival,
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I ovde dole, preživljavanje dece,
07:01
the percentage of children surviving childhood
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procenat dece koja prežive djetinjstvo
07:03
up to starting school:
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do početka škole.
07:05
60 percent, 70 percent, 80 percent, 90,
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60%, 70%, 80%, 90,
07:08
and almost 100 percent, as we have today
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i gotovo 100%, kao što imamo danas
07:10
in the wealthiest and healthiest countries.
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u najbogatijim i najzdravijim zemljama.
07:12
But look, this is the world my teacher talked about in 1960:
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Ali pogledajte, ovo je svet o kojem je moj profesor pričao 1960.
07:15
one billion Western world here --
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Jedna milijarda zapadnjaka ovde,
07:18
high child-survival, small families --
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visoko preživljavanje dece, male porodice.
07:21
and all the rest,
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I svi ostali,
07:23
the rainbow of developing countries,
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duga zemalja u razvoju,
07:25
with very large families
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s velikim porodicama
07:27
and poor child survival.
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i slabim preživljavanjem dece.
07:29
What has happened? I start the world. Here we go.
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Šta se dogodilo? Pokrećem svet. Idemo.
07:32
Can you see, as the years pass by, child survival is increasing?
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Možete li da vidite, kako godine prolaze, preživljavanje dece se povećava?
07:35
They get soap, hygiene, education,
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Oni dobijaju sapun, higijenu, obrazovanje,
07:37
vaccination, penicillin
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vakcine i penicilin.
07:39
and then family planning. Family size is decreasing.
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I onda planiranje porodice. Veličina porodice se smanjuje.
07:42
[When] they get up to 90-percent child survival, then families decrease,
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Kad dođu do 90% preživljavanja dece, porodice počnu da se smanjuju.
07:45
and most of the Arab countries in the Middle East
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I većina arapskih zemalja na Bliskom Istoku
07:47
is falling down there [to small families].
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pada ovde dole [do malenih porodica].
07:49
Look, Bangladesh catching up with India.
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Pogledajte, Bangladeš sustiže Indiju.
07:51
The whole emerging world
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[Sve] rastuće ekonomije [u] svetu
07:54
joins the Western world
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pridružuju se zapadnom svetu
07:56
with good child survival
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s dobrom stopom dece koja preživljavaju
07:58
and small family size,
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i malim porodicama.
08:00
but we still have the poorest billion.
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Ali još uvek imamo najsiromašniju milijardu.
08:02
Can you see the poorest billion,
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Vidite li najsiromašniju milijardu,
08:04
those [two] boxes I had over here?
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ove [dve] kutije koje sam imao ovde?
08:07
They are still up here.
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Oni su još uvek ovde gore.
08:09
And they still have a child survival
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I oni još uvek imaju stopu preživljavanja dece
08:11
of only 70 to 80 percent,
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od samo 70 do 80%,
08:13
meaning that if you have six children born,
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što znači da ako imate šestoro dece,
08:15
there will be at least four who survive
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najmanje četvoro će preživeti
08:17
to the next generation.
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do sledeće generacije.
08:19
And the population will double in one generation.
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A populacija će se udvostručiti unutar jedne generacije.
08:22
So the only way
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Tako je jedini način
08:24
of really getting world population [growth] to stop
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za zaustavljanje rasta svetskog stanovništva
08:27
is to continue to improve child survival
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kontinuirano poboljšavanje stope preživljavanja dece
08:29
to 90 percent.
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do 90%.
08:31
That's why investments by Gates Foundation,
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Zato su [zdravstvene] investicije fondacije Gates,
08:33
UNICEF and aid organizations,
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UNICEF-a i drugih organizacija za pomoć,
08:35
together with national government in the poorest countries,
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zajedno s nacionalnim vladama najsiromašnijih zemalja,
08:37
are so good;
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tako dobre.
08:39
because they are actually
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Jer one nam ustvari
08:41
helping us to reach
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pomažu da dosegnemo
08:43
a sustainable population size of the world.
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održivu veličinu svetske populacije.
08:45
We can stop at nine billion if we do the right things.
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Možemo se zaustaviti na devet milijardi ako napravimo prave stvari.
08:48
Child survival is the new green.
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Preživljavanje dece je nova obveza.
08:51
It's only by child survival
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Jedino kroz preživljavanje dece
08:53
that we will stop population growth.
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zaustavićemo rast populacije.
08:56
And will it happen?
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A hoće li se dogoditi?
08:58
Well, I'm not an optimist,
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Ja nisam optimista,
09:01
neither am I a pessimist.
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niti sam pesimista.
09:03
I'm a very serious "possibilist."
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Ja sam jako ozbiljni "mogućnoista".
09:06
It's a new category where we take emotion apart,
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To je nova kategorija u kojoj emocije stavljamo na stranu,
09:09
and we just work analytically with the world.
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i jednostavno analitički pristupamo svetu.
09:11
It can be done.
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Može se uraditi.
09:14
We can have a much more just world.
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Možemo imati puno pravedniji svet.
09:17
With green technology
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Sa zelenim tehnologijama
09:19
and with investments to alleviate poverty,
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i investicijama koje iskorenjuju siromaštvo,
09:21
and global governance,
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i s dobrim globalnim vladanjem,
09:23
the world can become like this.
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svet može postati ovakav.
09:25
And look at the position of the old West.
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I pogledajte položaj starog Zapada.
09:28
Remember when this blue box was all alone,
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Setite se kad je ova plava kutija bila sama,
09:31
leading the world, living its own life.
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vodeći svet, živeći svoj život.
09:34
This will not happen [again].
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To se neće ponoviti.
09:36
The role of the old West in the new world
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Uloga starog Zapada u novom svetu
09:39
is to become the foundation
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je da postane temelj
09:41
of the modern world --
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modernog sveta --
09:43
nothing more, nothing less.
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ništa više, ništa manje.
09:45
But it's a very important role.
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Ali to je jako važna uloga.
09:47
Do it well and get used to it.
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Radite je dobro i naviknite se na nju.
09:49
Thank you very much.
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Hvala vam puno.
09:51
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionaryIn Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
Why you should listen
Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.
What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.
Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)
Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.
Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com