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Michael Green: How we can make the world a better place by 2030
Majkl Grin (Michael Green): Kako možemo da učinimo svet boljim do 2030.
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Možemo li da okončamo glad i siromaštvo, zaustavimo klimatske promene i da postignemo rodnu jednakost u narednih 15 godina? Vlade sveta misle da možemo. Na sastanku u UN, septembra 2015, prihvatili su novi paket Globalnih ciljeva za svetski razvoj do 2030. Ekspert društvenog napretka, Majkl Grin, nas poziva da zamislimo da ovi ciljevi i njihova predstava boljeg sveta mogu da se ostvare.
Michael Green - Social progress expert
Michael Green is part of the team that has created the Social Progress Index, a standard to rank societies based on how they meet the needs of citizens. Full bio
Michael Green is part of the team that has created the Social Progress Index, a standard to rank societies based on how they meet the needs of citizens. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Do you think the world is going
to be a better place next year?
to be a better place next year?
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Da li smatrate da će svet
dogodine biti bolje mesto?
dogodine biti bolje mesto?
00:18
In the next decade?
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U narednoj deceniji?
00:20
Can we end hunger,
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Možemo li da okončamo glad,
00:23
achieve gender equality,
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postignemo rodnu jednakost,
00:25
halt climate change,
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zaustavimo klimatske promene,
00:28
all in the next 15 years?
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sve ovo u narednih 15 godina?
00:31
Well, according to the governments
of the world, yes we can.
of the world, yes we can.
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Pa, prema mišljenju
vlada sveta, možemo.
vlada sveta, možemo.
00:36
In the last few days,
the leaders of the world,
the leaders of the world,
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Proteklih nekoliko dana, svetske vođe
00:38
meeting at the UN in New York,
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na sastanku u UN u Njujorku,
00:41
agreed a new set of Global Goals
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dogovorili su novi paket Globalnih ciljeva
00:44
for the development of the world to 2030.
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za svetski razvoj do 2030.
00:47
And here they are:
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Evo tih ciljeva:
00:48
these goals are the product
of a massive consultation exercise.
of a massive consultation exercise.
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ovi ciljevi su proizvod
obimnih konsultantskih vežbi.
obimnih konsultantskih vežbi.
00:53
The Global Goals are who we,
humanity, want to be.
humanity, want to be.
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Globalni ciljevi su ono što bi mi,
čovečanstvo, želeli da budemo.
čovečanstvo, želeli da budemo.
00:59
Now that's the plan, but can we get there?
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Pa, to je plan,
ali možemo li da ga ostvarimo?
ali možemo li da ga ostvarimo?
01:03
Can this vision for a better world
really be achieved?
really be achieved?
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Može li se ova vizija boljeg sveta
zaista ostvariti?
zaista ostvariti?
01:08
Well, I'm here today because
we've run the numbers,
we've run the numbers,
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Pa, ovde sam danas
jer smo proverili neke brojke
jer smo proverili neke brojke
01:12
and the answer, shockingly,
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i odgovor je, na iznenađenje svih,
01:16
is that maybe we actually can.
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da možda zapravo i možemo.
01:19
But not with business as usual.
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Ali ne radeći po običaju.
01:23
Now, the idea that the world
is going to get a better place
is going to get a better place
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Sad, misao da će svet postati bolje mesto
01:26
may seem a little fanciful.
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može se činiti malčice nestvarnom.
01:29
Watch the news every day and the world
seems to be going backwards, not forwards.
seems to be going backwards, not forwards.
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Posmatrajte vesti svaki dan
i čini se da svet ide unazad, ne napred.
i čini se da svet ide unazad, ne napred.
01:33
And let's be frank:
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I budimo iskreni:
01:35
it's pretty easy to be skeptical
about grand announcements
about grand announcements
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prilično je lako biti skeptičan
prema velikim najavama
prema velikim najavama
01:38
coming out of the UN.
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koje stižu iz UN-a.
01:41
But please, I invite you to suspend
your disbelief for just a moment.
your disbelief for just a moment.
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Ali, molim vas, pozivam vas
da zadržite nevericu samo za momenat.
da zadržite nevericu samo za momenat.
01:45
Because back in 2001,
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Jer je 2001.
01:47
the UN agreed another set of goals,
the Millennium Development Goals.
the Millennium Development Goals.
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UN dogovorio drugi paket ciljeva,
Milenijumske ciljeve razvoja.
Milenijumske ciljeve razvoja.
01:53
And the flagship target there
was to halve the proportion of people
was to halve the proportion of people
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A glavna meta je bila
prepolovljanje broja ljudi
prepolovljanje broja ljudi
01:57
living in poverty by 2015.
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koji žive u siromaštvu, do 2015.
02:01
The target was to take
from a baseline of 1990,
from a baseline of 1990,
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Cilj je bio krenuti od osnove iz 1990,
02:04
when 36 percent of the world's
population lived in poverty,
population lived in poverty,
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kada je 36 procenata svetske populacije
živelo u siromaštvu
živelo u siromaštvu
02:08
to get to 18 percent poverty this year.
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i stići do 18% siromašnih ove godine.
02:12
Did we hit this target?
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Da li smo pogodili cilj?
02:14
Well, no, we didn't.
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Pa, ne, nismo.
02:16
We exceeded it.
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Premašili smo ga.
02:18
This year, global poverty
is going to fall to 12 percent.
is going to fall to 12 percent.
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Ove će godine globalno siromaštvo
da padne na 12 procenata.
da padne na 12 procenata.
02:23
Now, that's still not good enough,
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Pa, to i dalje nije dovoljno dobro
02:25
and the world does still have
plenty of problems.
plenty of problems.
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i u svetu zaista i dalje
ima mnogo problema.
ima mnogo problema.
02:29
But the pessimists and doomsayers
who say that the world can't get better
who say that the world can't get better
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Ali pesimisti i predskazivači propasti
koji tvrde da svet ne može da se popravi
koji tvrde da svet ne može da se popravi
02:34
are simply wrong.
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prosto nisu u pravu.
02:37
So how did we achieve this success?
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Pa, kako smo postigli ovaj uspeh?
02:40
Well, a lot of it was because
of economic growth.
of economic growth.
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Pa, uglavnom je to bilo
zahvaljujući ekonomskom rastu.
zahvaljujući ekonomskom rastu.
02:43
Some of the biggest reductions in poverty
were in countries such as China and India,
were in countries such as China and India,
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Najveća smanjenja siromaštva su se desila
u zemljama poput Kine i Indije,
u zemljama poput Kine i Indije,
02:48
which have seen rapid
economic growth in recent years.
economic growth in recent years.
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koje su proteklih godina
doživele nagli ekonomski rast.
doživele nagli ekonomski rast.
02:52
So can we pull off the same trick again?
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Dakle, možemo li da izvedemo
ponovo isti trik?
ponovo isti trik?
02:55
Can economic growth
get us to the Global Goals?
get us to the Global Goals?
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Može li nas ekonomski rast
dovesti do Globalnih ciljeva?
dovesti do Globalnih ciljeva?
03:00
Well, to answer that question,
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Pa, kako bismo odgovorili na to
03:02
we need to benchmark where the world
is today against the Global Goals
is today against the Global Goals
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moramo da imamo reper gde je svet
danas u odnosu na Globalne ciljeve
danas u odnosu na Globalne ciljeve
03:06
and figure out how far we have to travel.
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i da otkrijemo koliko daleko
moramo da idemo.
moramo da idemo.
03:10
But that ain't easy,
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Ali to nije lako
03:11
because the Global Goals
aren't just ambitious,
aren't just ambitious,
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zato što Globalni ciljevi
nisu samo ambiciozni,
nisu samo ambiciozni,
03:14
they're also pretty complicated.
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oni su i prilično komplikovani.
03:17
Over 17 goals, there are then 169 targets
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Na više od 17 ciljeva dolazi 169 meta
03:21
and literally hundreds of indicators.
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i bukvalno na stotine pokazatelja.
03:25
Also, while some of the goals
are pretty specific --
are pretty specific --
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Takođe, iako su neki ciljevi
prilično specifični -
prilično specifični -
03:29
end hunger --
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okončati glad -
03:30
others are a lot vaguer --
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drugi su mnogo nejasniji -
03:32
promote peaceful and tolerant societies.
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promocija mirnog i tolerantnog društva.
03:35
So to help us with this benchmarking,
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Kako bih nam pomogao u nalaženju repera,
03:37
I'm going to use a tool
called the Social Progress Index.
called the Social Progress Index.
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koristiću oruđe koje se zove
Indeks društvenog napretka.
Indeks društvenog napretka.
03:42
What this does is measures all the stuff
the Global Goals are trying to achieve,
the Global Goals are trying to achieve,
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On meri sve ono što Globalni ciljevi
pokušavaju da ostvare,
pokušavaju da ostvare,
03:46
but sums it up into a single number
that we can use as our benchmark
that we can use as our benchmark
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a sumira sve to u jedan broj
koji možemo da koristimo kao reper
koji možemo da koristimo kao reper
03:50
and track progress over time.
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i da vremenom pratimo napredak.
03:52
The Social Progress Index basically asks
three fundamental questions
three fundamental questions
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Indeks društvenog napretka
u suštini postavlja tri temeljna pitanja
u suštini postavlja tri temeljna pitanja
03:56
about a society.
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o društvu.
03:58
First of all, does everyone have
the basic needs of survival:
the basic needs of survival:
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Pre svega, da li svako ima
osnovne životne potrebe:
osnovne životne potrebe:
04:01
food, water, shelter, safety?
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hranu, vodu, sklonište, sigurnost?
04:04
Secondly, does everyone have
the building blocks of a better life:
the building blocks of a better life:
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Pod dva, da li svako ima
građu za bolji život:
građu za bolji život:
04:08
education, information, health
and a sustainable environment?
and a sustainable environment?
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obrazovanje, informisanost, zdravlje
i održivu životnu sredinu?
i održivu životnu sredinu?
04:13
And does everyone have
the opportunity to improve their lives,
the opportunity to improve their lives,
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I ima li svako mogućnost
da unapređuje svoj život
da unapređuje svoj život
04:16
through rights, freedom of choice,
freedom from discrimination,
freedom from discrimination,
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kroz prava, slobodu izbora,
slobodu od diskriminacije
slobodu od diskriminacije
04:20
and access to the world's
most advanced knowledge?
most advanced knowledge?
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i kroz pristup najnaprednijem
svetskom znanju?
svetskom znanju?
04:24
The Social Progress Index sums all this
together using 52 indicators
together using 52 indicators
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Indeks društvenog napretka
sve to sumira, koristeći 52 pokazatelja
sve to sumira, koristeći 52 pokazatelja
04:28
to create an aggregate score
on a scale of 0 to 100.
on a scale of 0 to 100.
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kako bi došao da zbira
na skali od 0 do 100.
na skali od 0 do 100.
04:33
And what we find is that there's
a wide diversity of performance
a wide diversity of performance
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A otkrili smo da postoji
ogromno nesaglasje u učinku
ogromno nesaglasje u učinku
04:36
in the world today.
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u današnjem svetu.
04:38
The highest performing country,
Norway, scores 88.
Norway, scores 88.
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Najuspešnija zemlja,
Norveška, ima zbir 88.
Norveška, ima zbir 88.
04:42
The lowest performing country,
Central African Republic, scores 31.
Central African Republic, scores 31.
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Najneuspešnija zemlja,
Centralnoafrička Republika, ima zbir 31.
Centralnoafrička Republika, ima zbir 31.
04:47
And we can add up
all the countries together,
all the countries together,
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Možemo sakupiti sve države,
04:49
weighting for the different
population sizes,
population sizes,
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uzimajući u obzir količinu populacije
04:52
and that global score is 61.
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i taj globalni zbir je 61.
04:56
In concrete terms,
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Konkretno,
04:57
that means that the average human being
is living on a level of social progress
is living on a level of social progress
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to znači da prosečno ljudsko biće
živi na nivou društvenog napretka,
živi na nivou društvenog napretka,
05:01
about the same of Cuba
or Kazakhstan today.
or Kazakhstan today.
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otprilike kao današnja Kuba ili Kazahstan.
05:05
That's where we are today: 61 out of 100.
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Tu smo danas: 61 od 100.
05:08
What do we have to get to
to achieve the Global Goals?
to achieve the Global Goals?
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Šta moramo da postignemo
da bi ostvarili Globalne ciljeve?
da bi ostvarili Globalne ciljeve?
05:12
Now, the Global Goals
are certainly ambitious,
are certainly ambitious,
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Sad, Globalni ciljevi
su, bez sumnje, ambiciozni,
su, bez sumnje, ambiciozni,
05:14
but they're not about turning the world
into Norway in just 15 years.
into Norway in just 15 years.
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ali ne radi se o pretvaranju sveta
u Norvešku za samo 15 godina.
u Norvešku za samo 15 godina.
05:19
So having looked at the numbers,
my estimate is that a score of 75
my estimate is that a score of 75
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Pa, posmatrajući brojke,
moja procena je da bi zbir 75,
moja procena je da bi zbir 75,
05:23
would not only be a giant leap forward
in human well-being,
in human well-being,
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ne samo bio ogroman skok napred
za opšte dobro ljudi,
za opšte dobro ljudi,
05:27
it would also count as hitting
the Global Goals target.
the Global Goals target.
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takođe bi značio pogađanje
mete Globalnih ciljeva.
mete Globalnih ciljeva.
05:31
So there's our target, 75 out of 100.
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Dakle, evo naše mete: 75 od 100.
05:34
Can we get there?
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Možemo li stići tu?
05:36
Well, the Social Progress Index
can help us calculate this,
can help us calculate this,
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Pa, Indeks društvenog napretka
nam može pomoći u računanju toga
nam može pomoći u računanju toga
05:39
because as you might have noticed,
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jer, kako ste možda već primetili,
05:40
there are no economic indicators in there;
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tu nema ekonomskih pokazatelja;
05:43
there's no GDP or economic growth
in the Social Progress Index model.
in the Social Progress Index model.
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nema BDP ili ekonomskog rasta
u modelu Indeksa društvenog napretka.
u modelu Indeksa društvenog napretka.
05:48
And what that lets us do
is understand the relationship
is understand the relationship
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A to nam dozvoljava da razumemo vezu
05:51
between economic growth
and social progress.
and social progress.
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između ekonomskog rasta
i društvenog napretka.
i društvenog napretka.
05:55
Let me show you on this chart.
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Pokazaću vam na ovom grafikonu.
05:57
So here on the vertical axis,
I've put social progress,
I've put social progress,
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Dakle, ovde sam na vertikalnoj osi
stavio društveni napredak,
stavio društveni napredak,
06:00
the stuff the Global Goals
are trying to achieve.
are trying to achieve.
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ono što Globalni ciljevi
pokušavaju da ostvare.
pokušavaju da ostvare.
06:03
Higher is better.
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Što više to bolje.
06:04
And then on the horizontal axis,
is GDP per capita.
is GDP per capita.
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A potom je na horizontalnoj osi
BDP po glavi stanovnika.
BDP po glavi stanovnika.
06:08
Further to the right means richer.
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Što više desno, to su bogatiji.
06:10
And in there, I'm now going to put
all the countries of the world,
all the countries of the world,
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I tu ću da stavim sve države sveta,
06:14
each one represented by a dot,
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svaka je predstavljena tačkom,
06:16
and on top of that I'm going to put
the regression line
the regression line
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a povrh svega ću da povučem
liniju regresije
liniju regresije
06:18
that shows the average relationship.
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koja pokazuje prosečan odnos.
06:21
And what this tells us
is that as we get richer,
is that as we get richer,
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A ovo nam govori da što smo bogatiji,
06:24
social progress does tend to improve.
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društveni napredak ima tendenciju rasta.
06:28
However, as we get richer,
each extra dollar of GDP
each extra dollar of GDP
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Međutim, kako postajemo još bogatiji,
svaki dodatni dolar BDP-a
svaki dodatni dolar BDP-a
06:32
is buying us less and less
social progress.
social progress.
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nam kupuje sve manje i manje
društvenog napretka.
društvenog napretka.
06:37
And now we can use this information
to start building our forecast.
to start building our forecast.
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Sad možemo da koristimo ove informacije
da bismo počeli da pravimo predviđanja.
da bismo počeli da pravimo predviđanja.
06:41
So here is the world in 2015.
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Dakle, ovo je svet u 2015.
06:44
We have a social progress score of 61
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Imamo zbir društvenog napretka 61
06:48
and a GDP per capita of $14,000.
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i BDP po glavi stanovnika
od 14,000 dolara.
od 14,000 dolara.
06:51
And the place we're trying to get to,
remember, is 75, that Global Goals target.
remember, is 75, that Global Goals target.
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A mesto do koga pokušavamo da stignemo,
sećate se, je 75, meta Globalnih ciljeva.
sećate se, je 75, meta Globalnih ciljeva.
06:56
So here we are today,
$14,000 per capita GDP.
$14,000 per capita GDP.
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Dakle, tu smo danas
BDP po glavi stanovnika je 14,000 dolara.
BDP po glavi stanovnika je 14,000 dolara.
07:00
How rich are we going to be in 2030?
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Koliko ćemo biti bogati 2030?
07:02
That's what we need to know next.
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To je sledeće što moramo da otkrijemo.
07:04
Well, the best forecast we can find comes
from the US Department of Agriculture,
from the US Department of Agriculture,
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Pa, najbolju prognozu nalazimo
u američkom Ministarstvu poljoprivrede,
u američkom Ministarstvu poljoprivrede,
07:08
which forecasts 3.1 percent
average global economic growth
average global economic growth
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koje predviđa prosečan
svetski ekonomski rast od 3,1 procenta
svetski ekonomski rast od 3,1 procenta
07:13
over the next 15 years,
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u narednih 15 godina
07:15
which means that in 2030,
if they're right,
if they're right,
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što znači da će 2030, ako su u pravu,
07:18
per capita GDP will be about $23,000.
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BDP po glavi stanovnika
biti oko 23,000 dolara.
biti oko 23,000 dolara.
Sada se postavlja pitanje:
ako postanemo toliko bogati,
ako postanemo toliko bogati,
07:23
So now the question is:
if we get that much richer,
if we get that much richer,
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07:25
how much social progress
are we going to get?
are we going to get?
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koliki ćemo društveni napredak ostvariti?
07:28
Well, we asked a team
of economists at Deloitte
of economists at Deloitte
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Pa, upitali smo
ekipu ekonomista u Delojtu,
ekipu ekonomista u Delojtu,
07:31
who checked and crunched the numbers,
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koji su proverili i usitnili brojke
07:33
and they came back and said, well, look:
if the world's average wealth goes
if the world's average wealth goes
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i vratili su se i rekli, pazite:
ako prosečno svetsko bogatstvo poraste
ako prosečno svetsko bogatstvo poraste
07:38
from $14,000 a year to $23,000 a year,
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sa 14,000 na 23,000 dolara godišnje,
07:41
social progress is going to increase
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društveni napredak će da poraste
07:44
from 61 to 62.4.
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sa 61 do 62,4.
07:48
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
07:50
Just 62.4. Just a tiny increase.
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Samo 62,4. Samo sićušan porast.
07:56
Now this seems a bit strange.
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Ovo se čini čudnim.
07:57
Economic growth seems
to have really helped
to have really helped
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Čini se da je ekonomski rast
zaista pomogao
zaista pomogao
08:00
in the fight against poverty,
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u borbi protiv siromaštva,
08:01
but it doesn't seem
to be having much impact
to be having much impact
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ali ne čini se da ima značajan uticaj
08:04
on trying to get to the Global Goals.
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u pokušaju dostizanja Globalnih ciljeva.
08:06
So what's going on?
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Pa, o čemu se radi?
08:08
Well, I think there are two things.
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Mislim da imamo dve stvari.
08:09
The first is that in a way,
we're the victims of our own success.
we're the victims of our own success.
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Prva je u tome što smo mi,
na neki način, žrtve sopstvenog uspeha.
na neki način, žrtve sopstvenog uspeha.
08:13
We've used up the easy wins
from economic growth,
from economic growth,
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Iskoristili smo lake pobede
ekonomskog rasta
ekonomskog rasta
08:16
and now we're moving on
to harder problems.
to harder problems.
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i sada prelazimo na teže probleme.
08:19
And also, we know that economic growth
comes with costs as well as benefits.
comes with costs as well as benefits.
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A takođe, znamo da uz ekonomski rast
idu i troškovi, kao i koristi.
idu i troškovi, kao i koristi.
08:24
There are costs to the environment, costs
from new health problems like obesity.
from new health problems like obesity.
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Životna sredina ispašta, troškovi od novih
zdravstvenih problema, poput gojaznosti.
zdravstvenih problema, poput gojaznosti.
08:29
So that's the bad news.
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Dakle, to su loše vesti.
08:31
We're not going to get to the Global Goals
just by getting richer.
just by getting richer.
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Nećemo ostvariti Globalne ciljeve
pukim bogaćenjem.
pukim bogaćenjem.
08:36
So are the pessimists right?
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Dakle, jesu li pesimisti u pravu?
08:38
Well, maybe not.
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Pa, možda i nisu.
08:39
Because the Social Progress Index
also has some very good news.
also has some very good news.
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Jer Indeks društvenog napretka
takođe donosi veoma dobre vesti.
takođe donosi veoma dobre vesti.
08:44
Let me take you back
to that regression line.
to that regression line.
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Vratićemo se liniji regresije.
08:47
So this is the average relationship
between GDP and social progress,
between GDP and social progress,
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Dakle, ovo je prosečan odnos
između BDP-a i društvenog napretka
između BDP-a i društvenog napretka
08:50
and this is what our
last forecast was based on.
last forecast was based on.
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i na ovome je bazirano
naše poslednje predviđanje.
naše poslednje predviđanje.
08:54
But as you saw already,
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No, kako ste već videli
08:55
there is actually lots of noise
around this trend line.
around this trend line.
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mnogo je buke
oko ove linije našeg kretanja.
oko ove linije našeg kretanja.
09:00
What that tells us, quite simply,
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Ona nam govori, prilično jasno,
09:02
is that GDP is not destiny.
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da BDP nije sudbina.
09:06
We have countries that are underperforming
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Imamo nezadovoljavajuće zemlje
09:09
on social progress,
relative to their wealth.
relative to their wealth.
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iz društvenog napretka,
u poređenju s njihovim bogatstvom.
u poređenju s njihovim bogatstvom.
09:12
Russia has lots
of natural resource wealth,
of natural resource wealth,
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Rusija je bogata mnoštvom
prirodnih resursa,
prirodnih resursa,
09:14
but lots of social problems.
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ali ima i mnogo društvenih problema.
09:16
China has boomed economically,
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Kina je imala ekonomski procvat,
09:19
but hasn't made much headway
on human rights or environmental issues.
on human rights or environmental issues.
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ali nije mnogo napredovala
u ljudskim pravima i ekološkim pitanjima.
u ljudskim pravima i ekološkim pitanjima.
09:23
India has a space program
and millions of people without toilets.
and millions of people without toilets.
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Indija ima svemirski program
i milione ljudi bez toaleta.
i milione ljudi bez toaleta.
09:29
Now, on the other hand, we have countries
that are overperforming
that are overperforming
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Sad, s druge strane, imamo zemlje
koje su uspešne
koje su uspešne
09:32
on social progress relative to their GDP.
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iz društvenog napretka,
u poređenju sa BDP.
u poređenju sa BDP.
09:35
Costa Rica has prioritized education,
health and environmental sustainability,
health and environmental sustainability,
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Kostarika je odredila za prioritete:
obrazovanje, zdravstvo i održivost
obrazovanje, zdravstvo i održivost
09:41
and as a result, it's achieving
a very high level of social progress,
a very high level of social progress,
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i kao rezultat toga, postiže
visoke rezultate iz društvenog napretka,
visoke rezultate iz društvenog napretka,
09:45
despite only having a rather modest GDP.
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uprkos tome što ima prilično skroman BDP.
09:49
And Costa Rica's not alone.
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A Kostarika nije usamljena.
09:51
From poor countries like Rwanda
to richer countries like New Zealand,
to richer countries like New Zealand,
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Od siromašnih zemalja, poput Ruande,
do bogatijih zemalja, poput Novog Zelanda,
do bogatijih zemalja, poput Novog Zelanda,
09:55
we see that it's possible to get
lots of social progress,
lots of social progress,
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vidimo da je moguće
postići značajan društveni napredak,
postići značajan društveni napredak,
09:59
even if your GDP is not so great.
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čak i kada vam BDP nije sjajan.
10:02
And that's really important,
because it tells us two things.
because it tells us two things.
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A to je zaista važno
jer nam govori dve stvari.
jer nam govori dve stvari.
10:06
First of all, it tells us that we already
in the world have the solutions
in the world have the solutions
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Pre svega, govori nam da u svetu
već postoje rešenja
već postoje rešenja
10:11
to many of the problems
that the Global Goals are trying to solve.
that the Global Goals are trying to solve.
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za mnoge probleme koje Globalni ciljevi
pokušavaju da reše.
pokušavaju da reše.
10:15
It also tells us
that we're not slaves to GDP.
that we're not slaves to GDP.
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Takođe nam govori da nismo robovi BDP-a.
10:20
Our choices matter: if we prioritize
the well-being of people,
the well-being of people,
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Naši izbori su važni:
ako nam je prioritet dobrobit ljudi,
ako nam je prioritet dobrobit ljudi,
10:24
then we can make a lot more progress
than our GDP might expect.
than our GDP might expect.
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onda možemo da postignemo daleko više
napretka nego što naš BDP nagoveštava.
napretka nego što naš BDP nagoveštava.
10:29
How much? Enough to get us
to the Global Goals?
to the Global Goals?
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Koliko? Dovoljno da ostvarimo
Globalne ciljeve?
Globalne ciljeve?
10:32
Well, let's look at some numbers.
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Pa, pogledajmo neke brojke.
10:33
What we know already: the world today
is scoring 61 on social progress,
is scoring 61 on social progress,
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Šta nam je već poznato: današnji svet
ima zbir 61 iz društvenog napretka,
ima zbir 61 iz društvenog napretka,
10:37
and the place we want to get to is 75.
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a želimo stići do 75.
10:40
If we rely on economic growth alone,
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Ako se oslonimo samo na ekonomski rast,
10:42
we're going to get to 62.4.
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stići ćemo samo do 62,4.
10:45
So let's assume now that we can get
the countries that are currently
the countries that are currently
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Zato pretpostavimo da možemo
da dovedemo države
da dovedemo države
koje trenutno imaju nezadovoljavajući
društveni napredak- Rusija, Kina, Indija -
društveni napredak- Rusija, Kina, Indija -
10:49
underperforming on social progress --
the Russia, China, Indias --
the Russia, China, Indias --
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10:52
just up to the average.
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da samo budu prosečne.
10:54
How much social progress does that get us?
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Koliko društvenog napretka
bi nam to donelo?
bi nam to donelo?
10:56
Well, that takes us to 65.
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Pa, to bi nas dovelo do 65.
10:59
It's a bit better, but still
quite a long way to go.
quite a long way to go.
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Malo je bolje,
ali je i dalje dug put pred nama.
ali je i dalje dug put pred nama.
11:02
So let's get a little bit more
optimistic and say,
optimistic and say,
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Pa, budimo malo optimističniji i pitajmo:
11:04
what if every country
gets a little bit better
gets a little bit better
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šta ako bi svaka zemlja
postala malo bolja
postala malo bolja
11:07
at turning its wealth into well-being?
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u pretvaranju bogatstva u dobrobit?
11:10
Well then, we get to 67.
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Pa, onda bismo stigli do 67.
11:13
And now let's be even bolder still.
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A sad budimo još odvažniji.
11:16
What if every country in the world
chose to be like Costa Rica
chose to be like Costa Rica
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Šta kad bi svaka država u svetu
odlučila da bude kao Kostarika
odlučila da bude kao Kostarika
11:20
in prioritizing human well-being,
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i da joj prioritet bude dobrobit ljudi,
11:22
using its wealth for the well-being
of its citizens?
of its citizens?
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da koristi svoje bogatstvo
za dobrobit svojih građana?
za dobrobit svojih građana?
11:25
Well then, we get to nearly 73,
very close to the Global Goals.
very close to the Global Goals.
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Pa onda bismo stigli skoro do 73
veoma blizu Globalnih ciljeva.
veoma blizu Globalnih ciljeva.
11:30
Can we achieve the Global Goals?
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Možemo li da postignemo Globalne ciljeve?
11:32
Certainly not with business as usual.
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Svakako ne, radeći po običaju.
11:35
Even a flood tide of economic growth
is not going to get us there,
is not going to get us there,
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Čak ni poplavni talas ekonomskog rasta
nas neće dovesti do njih,
nas neće dovesti do njih,
11:39
if it just raises the mega-yachts
and the super-wealthy
and the super-wealthy
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ako samo poveća broj mega jahti
i super bogatih
i super bogatih
11:42
and leaves the rest behind.
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i ostavi nas ostale iza sebe.
11:45
If we're going to achieve the Global Goals
we have to do things differently.
we have to do things differently.
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Ako želimo da postignemo Globalne ciljeve
moramo da radimo drugačije.
moramo da radimo drugačije.
11:49
We have to prioritize social progress,
and really scale solutions
and really scale solutions
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Društveni napredak nam mora biti prioritet
i moramo da uvećamo rešenja
i moramo da uvećamo rešenja
11:53
around the world.
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širom sveta.
11:54
I believe the Global Goals
are a historic opportunity,
are a historic opportunity,
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Verujem da su Globalni ciljevi
istorijska šansa
istorijska šansa
11:58
because the world's leaders
have promised to deliver them.
have promised to deliver them.
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jer su svetske vođe obećale
da će ih ispuniti.
da će ih ispuniti.
12:03
Let's not dismiss the goals
or slide into pessimism;
or slide into pessimism;
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Ne odbacujmo ciljeve
i ne srljajmo u pesimizam;
i ne srljajmo u pesimizam;
12:07
let's hold them to that promise.
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držimo ih za to obećanje.
12:09
And we need to hold them to that promise
by holding them accountable,
by holding them accountable,
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A držaćemo ih za to obećanje
tako što ćemo ih smatrati odgovornim,
tako što ćemo ih smatrati odgovornim,
12:13
tracking their progress all the way
through the next 15 years.
through the next 15 years.
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prateći njihov napredak
svih narednih 15 godina.
svih narednih 15 godina.
12:16
And I want to finish by showing you
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A želim da završim pokazavši vam
12:18
a way to do that, called
the People's Report Card.
the People's Report Card.
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kako da to uradite,
zove se Narodna izveštajna karta.
zove se Narodna izveštajna karta.
12:21
The People's Report Card brings together
all this data into a simple framework
all this data into a simple framework
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Narodna izveštajna karta
spaja sve ove podatke u jednostavan okvir
spaja sve ove podatke u jednostavan okvir
12:26
that we'll all be familiar
with from our school days,
with from our school days,
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koji nam je svima poznat iz školskih dana,
kako bismo ih držali odgovornim.
12:28
to hold them to account.
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12:30
It grades our performance
on the Global Goals
on the Global Goals
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Ona ocenjuje naš učinak
u Globalnim ciljevima
u Globalnim ciljevima
12:32
on a scale from F to A,
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na skali od F do A,
12:36
where F is humanity at its worst,
and A is humanity at its best.
and A is humanity at its best.
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gde je F čovečanstvo u najgorem obliku,
a A je čovečanstvo u najboljem obliku.
a A je čovečanstvo u najboljem obliku.
12:41
Our world today is scoring a C-.
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Naš svet danas ima ocenu C-.
12:47
The Global Goals are all about
getting to an A,
getting to an A,
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Kod Globalnih ciljeva se radi
o stizanju do A
o stizanju do A
12:50
and that's why we're going to be updating
the People's Report Card annually,
the People's Report Card annually,
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i zato ćemo godišnje da ažuriramo
Narodnu izveštajnu kartu,
Narodnu izveštajnu kartu,
12:54
for the world and for all
the countries of the world,
the countries of the world,
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čitavog sveta i svih država sveta
12:57
so we can hold our leaders to account
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kako bismo tražili odgovornost
naših vođa
naših vođa
13:00
to achieve this target
and fulfill this promise.
and fulfill this promise.
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da postignemo ovaj cilj
i da ispunimo ovo obećanje.
i da ispunimo ovo obećanje.
13:05
Because getting to the Global Goals will
only happen if we do things differently,
only happen if we do things differently,
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Jer ćemo postići Globalne ciljeve,
jedino ako budemo radili drugačije,
jedino ako budemo radili drugačije,
13:09
if our leaders do things differently,
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ako naše vođe budu radile drugačije,
13:12
and for that to happen,
that needs us to demand it.
that needs us to demand it.
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a da bi se to desilo,
mi moramo to da zahtevamo.
mi moramo to da zahtevamo.
13:16
So let's reject business as usual.
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Zato odbacimo rađenje po običaju.
13:20
Let's demand a different path.
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Zahtevajmo drugi put.
13:23
Let's choose the world that we want.
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Izaberimo svet kakav želimo.
13:28
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
13:29
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
13:34
Bruno Giussani: Thank you, Michael.
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Bruno Đusani: Hvala Majkl.
Majkl, imam samo jedno pitanje.
Milenijumski razvojni ciljevi
Milenijumski razvojni ciljevi
13:38
Michael, just one question:
the Millennium Development Goals
the Millennium Development Goals
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koji su utvrđeni pre 15 godina,
13:41
established 15 years ago,
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13:43
they were kind of applying
to every country
to every country
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teoretski su se odnosili na sve države,
13:46
but it turned out to be really
a scorecard for emerging countries.
a scorecard for emerging countries.
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ali se ispostavilo da je to zaista
tabela za zemlje u razvoju.
tabela za zemlje u razvoju.
13:49
Now the new Global Goals
are explicitly universal.
are explicitly universal.
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Novi Globalni ciljevi
su eksplicitno univerzalni.
su eksplicitno univerzalni.
13:52
They ask for every country to show action
and to show progress.
and to show progress.
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Traže od svake države da dela
i da pokaže napredak.
i da pokaže napredak.
13:56
How can I, as a private citizen,
use the report card
use the report card
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Kako mogu ja, kao privatno lice,
da koristim izveštajnu kartu
da koristim izveštajnu kartu
13:59
to create pressure for action?
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i da izvršim pritisak za delanje?
14:02
Michael Green: This is a really important
point; it's a big shift in priorities --
point; it's a big shift in priorities --
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Majkl Grin: Ovo je važna tačka,
to je veliki zaokret u prioritetima -
to je veliki zaokret u prioritetima -
ne radi se više o siromašnim zemljama
i samo o siromaštvu.
i samo o siromaštvu.
14:06
it's no longer about poor
countries and just poverty.
countries and just poverty.
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14:08
It's about every country.
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Radi se o svim zemljama.
A svaka država će se suočiti sa izazovima
prilikom postizanja Globalnih ciljeva.
prilikom postizanja Globalnih ciljeva.
14:09
And every country is going to have
challenges in getting to the Global Goals.
challenges in getting to the Global Goals.
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14:13
Even, I'm sorry to say, Bruno,
Switzerland has got to work to do.
Switzerland has got to work to do.
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Čak i, žao mi je što to kažem, Bruno,
Švajcarska ima mnogo posla.
Švajcarska ima mnogo posla.
14:16
And so that's why we're going to produce
these report cards in 2016
these report cards in 2016
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I zato ćemo da napravimo
ove izveštačke karte 2016.
ove izveštačke karte 2016.
14:20
for every country in the world.
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za sve države sveta.
14:21
Then we can really see, how are we doing?
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Onda ćemo zaista da znamo kako nam ide.
14:23
And it's not going to be rich countries
scoring straight A's.
scoring straight A's.
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I neće se desiti da bogate države
dobiju čisto A.
dobiju čisto A.
14:26
And that, then, I think,
is to provide a point of focus
is to provide a point of focus
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A to će onda, mislim, obezbediti smernicu
14:29
for people to start demanding action
and start demanding progress.
and start demanding progress.
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ljudima da počnu da zahtevaju delanje
i da počnu da zahtevaju napredak.
i da počnu da zahtevaju napredak.
14:32
BG: Thank you very much.
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BĐ: Mnogo ti hvala.
14:34
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michael Green - Social progress expertMichael Green is part of the team that has created the Social Progress Index, a standard to rank societies based on how they meet the needs of citizens.
Why you should listen
In his book Philanthrocapitalism (co-authored with Economist business editor Matthew Bishop), Michael Green defined a new model for social change built on partnerships between wealthy businesses, governments and community organizations. Shortly thereafter, Bishop floated the idea of a “Social Competiveness Index,” the idea that one day countries would compete with one another to be the most socially advanced, in the same way as they now compete to be economic top dog. Green loved it and decided to turn it into reality.
Teaming up with Avina's president Brizio Biondi-Morra, Sally Osberg of the Skoll Foundation and many other thought leaders from businesses and foundations, he began work on what would become the Social Progress Imperative, of which he's now CEO. Later they were joined by Harvard management guru Michael E. Porter, who became chairman of the SPI's advisory board. The first Social Progress Index was published in 2014.
Michael Green | Speaker | TED.com