TED2004
Malcolm Gladwell: Choice, happiness and spaghetti sauce
马尔科姆·葛拉威尔谈意粉酱
Filmed:
Readability: 3.8
8,618,534 views
《引爆点》的作者马尔科姆·葛拉威尔揭开食品行业探寻完美的意粉酱的历程 ─ 并进一步探讨了选择和快乐的本质。
Malcolm Gladwell - Writer
Detective of fads and emerging subcultures, chronicler of jobs-you-never-knew-existed, Malcolm Gladwell's work is toppling the popular understanding of bias, crime, food, marketing, race, consumers and intelligence. Full bio
Detective of fads and emerging subcultures, chronicler of jobs-you-never-knew-existed, Malcolm Gladwell's work is toppling the popular understanding of bias, crime, food, marketing, race, consumers and intelligence. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
我想我本该谈谈我的新书，
00:25
I think I was supposed
to talk about my new book,
to talk about my new book,
0
515
2461
00:27
which is called "Blink,"
1
3000
1879
书名叫做《倾覆》，讲的是瞬间决定和第一印象。
00:29
and it's about snap judgments
and first impressions.
and first impressions.
2
4903
2744
00:32
And it comes out in January,
and I hope you all buy it in triplicate.
and I hope you all buy it in triplicate.
3
8000
3791
书在一月上市，我希望你们每人都买个两三本。
00:36
(Laughter)
4
11815
1474
不过当我想到这里时，
00:38
But I was thinking about this,
5
13313
1663
00:39
and I realized that although
my new book makes me happy,
my new book makes me happy,
6
15000
4210
我发现我的新书虽然使我很开心，
我觉得也使我妈妈很开心，
00:44
and I think would make my mother happy,
7
19234
2636
00:46
it's not really about happiness.
8
21894
2458
但是书本身谈的并不是快乐。
因此我决定，我要谈一个人
00:49
So I decided instead,
I would talk about someone
I would talk about someone
9
24376
3600
00:52
who I think has done as much
to make Americans happy
to make Americans happy
10
28000
3679
我认为在过去的二十年里，他为了让美国人快乐
付出了比任何人都多的努力。
00:56
as perhaps anyone over the last 20 years,
11
31703
3273
00:59
a man who is a great
personal hero of mine:
personal hero of mine:
12
35000
2976
他是我个人崇敬的一个伟大英雄。
01:02
someone by the name of Howard Moskowitz,
13
38000
2976
他的名字是霍华德·莫斯科维茨，
01:05
who is most famous
for reinventing spaghetti sauce.
for reinventing spaghetti sauce.
14
41000
3100
一个以重新发明了意粉酱而闻名的人。
霍华德大概有这么高，圆圆的，
01:10
Howard's about this high, and he's round,
15
45323
4653
01:14
and he's in his 60s,
and he has big huge glasses
and he has big huge glasses
16
50000
5089
他六十多岁，戴着大大的眼镜，
头发稀疏灰白，不过他很有精神活力。
01:19
and thinning gray hair,
17
55113
1793
01:21
and he has a kind of wonderful
exuberance and vitality,
exuberance and vitality,
18
56930
3824
他养有一只鹦鹉，他喜欢歌剧，
01:25
and he has a parrot,
and he loves the opera,
and he loves the opera,
19
60778
3008
01:28
and he's a great aficionado
of medieval history.
of medieval history.
20
63810
4091
他还是一个中世纪历史的狂热爱好者。
他的职业，是精神物理学家。
01:33
And by profession, he's a psychophysicist.
21
68203
2604
01:35
Now, I should tell you that I have no idea
what psychophysics is,
what psychophysics is,
22
70831
4637
老实说，我根本不知道精神物理学是干什么的，
虽然我早年曾与一个女孩交往过两年，
01:40
although at some point in my life,
23
75492
1690
01:42
I dated a girl for two years
24
77206
1446
01:43
who was getting
her doctorate in psychophysics.
her doctorate in psychophysics.
25
78676
2240
她当时读的就是精神物理学博士。
01:45
Which should tell you something
about that relationship.
about that relationship.
26
80940
3544
你也知道这段交往大概是怎么样的了。
01:49
(Laughter)
27
84508
2297
01:51
As far as I know, psychophysics
is about measuring things.
is about measuring things.
28
86829
3147
据我所知，精神物理学讲的是测量事物。
01:54
And Howard is very interested
in measuring things.
in measuring things.
29
90000
2631
霍华德很热衷于测量事物。
他还是哈佛博士毕业的，
01:57
And he graduated
with his doctorate from Harvard,
with his doctorate from Harvard,
30
92655
2373
他在纽约州白原市设立了一个小顾问公司。
01:59
and he set up a little consulting shop
in White Plains, New York.
in White Plains, New York.
31
95052
3248
他的第一个客户是… 这是很多年前的事了，在七十年代初
02:03
And one of his first clients was Pepsi.
32
99055
2358
02:06
This is many years ago,
back in the early 70s.
back in the early 70s.
33
101437
3078
他最早的客户之一是百事公司。
百事的人找到霍华德，说：
02:10
And Pepsi came to Howard and they said,
34
105444
1912
“你看，有一样新东西叫做阿斯巴甜，
02:12
"You know, there's this new
thing called aspartame,
thing called aspartame,
35
107380
2398
我们想要用来生产百事轻怡。
02:14
and we would like to make Diet Pepsi.
36
109802
1884
02:16
We'd like you to figure out
37
111710
1977
我们想要你找出在每一罐百事轻怡里
02:18
how much aspartame we should put
in each can of Diet Pepsi
in each can of Diet Pepsi
38
113711
3506
放多少的阿斯巴甜，才能做出一种完美的饮料。” 对吧？
02:22
in order to have the perfect drink."
39
117241
1757
02:24
Now that sounds like an incredibly
straightforward question to answer,
straightforward question to answer,
40
119721
4255
这个问题听上去非常地容易回答，
02:28
and that's what Howard thought.
41
124000
1477
霍华德也是这么想的。因为百事公司告诉他：
02:30
Because Pepsi told him,
42
125501
1301
“你看，我们测试的是从 8% 到 12% 之间的范围。
02:31
"We're working with a band
between eight and 12 percent.
between eight and 12 percent.
43
126826
2683
8% 以下的甜度不够甜，
02:34
Anything below eight percent
sweetness is not sweet enough;
sweetness is not sweet enough;
44
129533
2919
12% 以上的甜度太甜了。
02:37
anything above 12 percent
sweetness is too sweet.
sweetness is too sweet.
45
132476
3239
02:40
We want to know: what's the sweet
spot between 8 and 12?"
spot between 8 and 12?"
46
135739
3083
我们想要知道，8% 到 12% 之间最完美的甜度是什么？”
02:44
Now, if I gave you this problem to do,
you would all say, it's very simple.
you would all say, it's very simple.
47
139372
3961
如果我现在把这个问题交给你，你会说：这个还不简单？
我们只要做出一系列不同甜度的百事，
02:48
What we do is you make up
a big experimental batch of Pepsi,
a big experimental batch of Pepsi,
48
143357
3619
02:51
at every degree of sweetness --
eight percent, 8.1, 8.2, 8.3,
eight percent, 8.1, 8.2, 8.3,
49
147000
4486
8%，8.1%，8.2,%，8.3%，
一直到 12% 为止。然后我们让几千人来品尝，
02:56
all the way up to 12 --
50
151510
1281
02:57
and we try this out
with thousands of people,
with thousands of people,
51
152815
2489
将结果画成一个曲线图，
03:00
and we plot the results on a curve,
52
155328
2206
03:02
and we take the most popular
concentration, right?
concentration, right?
53
157558
2981
最后取最多人喜欢的甜度。对吧？简单得很。
03:05
Really simple.
54
160563
1255
03:06
Howard does the experiment,
and he gets the data back,
and he gets the data back,
55
161842
2540
霍华德做了这个实验，他拿到数据，然后画成一个曲线图，
03:09
and he plots it on a curve,
56
164406
1341
然后他突然发现：这并不是一个漂亮的钟形曲线。
03:10
and all of a sudden he realizes
it's not a nice bell curve.
it's not a nice bell curve.
57
165771
2864
03:13
In fact, the data doesn't make any sense.
58
168659
1954
事实上，这些数据根本毫无逻辑。
根本就是一团糟。
03:15
It's a mess. It's all over the place.
59
170637
1782
03:17
Now, most people in that business,
in the world of testing food and such,
in the world of testing food and such,
60
173000
4613
那个行业里的大多数人，做食品测试之类的，
03:22
are not dismayed
when the data comes back a mess.
when the data comes back a mess.
61
177637
2817
对于一团糟的数据并不会很在意。
03:25
They think, "Well, you know,
62
180478
1492
他们想：你看，弄明白人们对可乐的看法不是那么简单的。
03:26
figuring out what people think
about cola's not that easy."
about cola's not that easy."
63
181994
2834
03:29
"You know, maybe we made an error
somewhere along the way."
somewhere along the way."
64
184852
2825
你看，说不定我们中途犯了一个错误。
我们合理猜想一下就算了，
03:32
"You know, let's just
make an educated guess,"
make an educated guess,"
65
187701
2197
03:34
and they simply point
and they go for 10 percent,
and they go for 10 percent,
66
189922
2385
于是他们就随便地选定 10%，正正中央。
03:37
right in the middle.
67
192331
1075
03:38
Howard is not so easily placated.
68
194000
1976
霍华德可不那么容易妥协。
03:40
Howard is a man of a certain degree
of intellectual standards.
of intellectual standards.
69
196000
2912
霍华德是一个有着相当程度学术标准的人。
03:43
And this was not good enough for him,
70
198936
2040
他对此并不满意，
03:45
and this question bedeviled him for years.
71
201000
2282
于是这个问题困扰了他很多年。
他总会沉思良久，然后问：哪出错了呢？
03:48
And he would think it through
and say, "What was wrong?
and say, "What was wrong?
72
203306
2670
03:50
Why could we not make sense
of this experiment with Diet Pepsi?"
of this experiment with Diet Pepsi?"
73
206000
3685
为什么我们弄不明白百事轻怡的这个实验呢？
有一天，他坐在白原市的一家小餐馆里，
03:55
And one day, he was sitting
in a diner in White Plains,
in a diner in White Plains,
74
210360
2616
03:57
about to go trying to dream up
some work for Nescafé.
some work for Nescafé.
75
213000
2976
正准备要帮雀巢公司做一些工作。
突然间，灵光一现，他找到了答案。
04:01
And suddenly, like a bolt of lightning,
the answer came to him.
the answer came to him.
76
216336
3484
那就是：他们在分析百事轻怡的数据时，
04:04
And that is, that when they analyzed
the Diet Pepsi data,
the Diet Pepsi data,
77
220153
2674
04:07
they were asking the wrong question.
78
222851
1722
问的是一个错误的问题。
04:09
They were looking for the perfect Pepsi,
79
224597
2130
他们想要寻找一种最完美的百事，
04:11
and they should have been
looking for the perfect Pepsis.
looking for the perfect Pepsis.
80
226751
2963
但他们要找的应当是多种完美的百事。相信我。
04:15
Trust me.
81
230814
1011
04:16
This was an enormous revelation.
82
231849
2127
这是一个巨大的启示。
04:18
This was one of the most brilliant
breakthroughs in all of food science.
breakthroughs in all of food science.
83
234000
3675
这是食品科学中最了不起的突破之一。
于是霍华德马上踏上了旅程，
04:22
Howard immediately went on the road,
84
237699
1718
他参加了全国各地的研讨会，
04:24
and he would go to conferences
around the country,
around the country,
85
239441
2358
站出来说：
04:26
and he would stand up and say,
86
241823
1558
你们之前找的是一种最完美的百事。你们错了。
04:28
"You had been looking
for the perfect Pepsi.
for the perfect Pepsi.
87
243405
2063
04:30
You're wrong.
88
245492
1230
04:31
You should be looking
for the perfect Pepsis."
for the perfect Pepsis."
89
246746
2508
你们要找的应当是多种完美的百事。”
04:34
And people would look at him
blankly and say,
blankly and say,
90
249857
2436
人们面无表情地看着他，然后说：
“你在胡说什么啊？神经病。”
04:37
"What are you talking about? Craziness."
91
252317
2063
然后他们叫道：“让开！下一个！”
04:39
And they would say, "Move! Next!"
92
254404
1572
04:40
Tried to get business,
nobody would hire him --
nobody would hire him --
93
256000
2214
他四处找生意，没有人肯雇佣他… 不过他依旧痴迷于他的想法，
04:43
he was obsessed, though,
94
258238
1384
他不断地谈论谈论再谈论它。
04:44
and he talked about it
and talked about it.
and talked about it.
95
259646
2007
04:46
Howard loves the Yiddish expression
96
261677
1793
霍华德很喜欢一句犹太谚语：
“对于一条活在辣根菜里的虫子来说，世界就是辣根菜。”
04:48
"To a worm in horseradish,
the world is horseradish."
the world is horseradish."
97
263494
2482
这就是他的辣根菜。他着迷了！
04:51
This was his horseradish.
98
266541
1600
04:52
(Laughter)
99
268165
1662
04:54
He was obsessed with it!
100
269851
1439
04:56
And finally, he had a breakthrough.
101
272000
2811
终于，他有了一个突破。Vlasic Pickles 公司的人找到他，
04:59
Vlasic Pickles came to him,
102
274835
2141
05:01
and they said, "Doctor Moskowitz,
we want to make the perfect pickle."
we want to make the perfect pickle."
103
277000
4649
他们说：“莫斯科维茨先生… 莫斯科维茨博士，
我们想要研制一种完美的酱菜。” 而他说：
05:06
And he said,
104
281673
1024
“世上没有一种最完美的酱菜，只有许多种完美的酱菜。”
05:07
"There is no perfect pickle;
there are only perfect pickles."
there are only perfect pickles."
105
282721
2929
他做完研究之后对他们说：“你们不单要改进你们的普通口味酱菜，
05:11
And he came back to them and he said,
106
286331
1770
05:12
"You don't just need
to improve your regular;
to improve your regular;
107
288125
2210
你们还要推出柑皮口味。”
05:15
you need to create zesty."
108
290359
1493
05:16
And that's where we got zesty pickles.
109
291876
1825
柑皮口味酱菜就是这么来的。
05:19
Then the next person came to him:
Campbell's Soup.
Campbell's Soup.
110
294516
2460
下一个闻名而来的客户，是金宝汤公司。
05:21
And this was even more important.
111
297000
2000
这一次更了不起。事实上，
霍华德就是靠金宝汤而扬名的。
05:23
In fact, Campbell's Soup
is where Howard made his reputation.
is where Howard made his reputation.
112
299024
3046
05:27
Campbell's made Prego,
113
302420
1393
金宝汤生产 Prego 牌意粉酱，在八十年代初期，Prego 和 Ragu 竞争得不相上下。
05:28
and Prego, in the early 80s,
was struggling next to Ragù,
was struggling next to Ragù,
114
303837
3868
05:32
which was the dominant
spaghetti sauce of the 70s and 80s.
spaghetti sauce of the 70s and 80s.
115
307729
3365
Ragu 牌意粉酱在七八十年代占据了市场主导地位。
现在这行业里… 我不知道你是不是知道这个，
05:36
In the industry -- I don't
know whether you care about this,
know whether you care about this,
116
311546
2843
或者说我要多花些时间讲详细些。
05:39
or how much time I have to go into this.
117
314413
2000
不过，技术上来说，顺带一提，
05:41
But it was, technically speaking
-- this is an aside --
-- this is an aside --
118
316437
2630
Prego 意粉酱比 Ragu 要好。
05:43
Prego is a better tomato sauce than Ragù.
119
319091
2060
番茄酱质量更好，调味料也好多了，
05:45
The quality of the tomato paste
is much better;
is much better;
120
321175
2281
05:48
the spice mix is far superior;
121
323480
1820
拌意粉吃起来更可口。事实上，
05:50
it adheres to the pasta
in a much more pleasing way.
in a much more pleasing way.
122
325324
2486
05:52
In fact, they would do
the famous bowl test
the famous bowl test
123
327834
2077
他们在七十年代用 Ragu 和 Prego 做过著名的面盘试验。
05:54
back in the 70s with Ragù and Prego.
124
329935
2645
05:57
You'd have a plate of spaghetti,
and you would pour it on, right?
and you would pour it on, right?
125
332604
3492
你拿一盘意粉，然后淋上意粉酱。
Ragu 会一直渗到盘底，而 Prego 会留在上面。
06:01
And the Ragù would all go to the bottom,
and the Prego would sit on top.
and the Prego would sit on top.
126
336460
4645
这叫做“粘稠”。
06:05
That's called "adherence."
127
341129
1531
06:07
And, anyway, despite the fact
that they were far superior in adherence,
that they were far superior in adherence,
128
342684
4540
言归正传，尽管他们的意粉酱更粘稠，
番茄酱的质量更好，Prego 却在挣扎求存。
06:12
and the quality of their tomato paste,
129
347248
2771
06:14
Prego was struggling.
130
350043
1369
06:16
So they came to Howard,
and they said, fix us.
and they said, fix us.
131
351436
3002
于是他们找到霍华德，说：帮我们。
06:19
And Howard looked
at their product line, and he said,
at their product line, and he said,
132
354811
2499
霍华德看了他们的产品线，说：
“你们这是个半死不活的番茄帝国。”
06:22
what you have is a dead tomato society.
133
357334
3103
于是他说：“我打算这么干。”
06:25
So he said, this is what I want to do.
134
361183
2182
他和金宝汤公司一起，
06:28
And he got together
with the Campbell's soup kitchen,
with the Campbell's soup kitchen,
135
363389
2556
做出了45种不同口味的意粉酱。他用了
06:30
and he made 45 varieties
of spaghetti sauce.
of spaghetti sauce.
136
365969
3461
06:34
And he varied them according
to every conceivable way
to every conceivable way
137
369454
2853
一切想象得出的变量区分出这些口味。
06:37
that you can vary tomato sauce:
138
372331
1645
06:38
by sweetness, by level of garlic,
139
374000
1858
甜度，大蒜多少，辣度，酸度，番茄多少
06:40
by tomatoey-ness,
by tartness, by sourness,
by tartness, by sourness,
140
375882
3215
还有可见固体——番茄酱行业中我最喜欢的词汇。
06:43
by visible solids --
141
379121
1340
06:45
my favorite term
in the spaghetti sauce business.
in the spaghetti sauce business.
142
380485
3261
06:48
(Laughter)
143
383770
1001
06:49
Every conceivable way
you can vary spaghetti sauce,
you can vary spaghetti sauce,
144
384795
3538
一切你想象得出的区分意粉酱的方法，他都用尽了。
06:53
he varied spaghetti sauce.
145
388357
1779
然后他带上这一系列45种口味的意粉酱，踏上了旅程。
06:54
And then he took this whole raft
of 45 spaghetti sauces,
of 45 spaghetti sauces,
146
390160
3733
06:58
and he went on the road.
147
393917
1157
他去了纽约，他去了芝加哥，他去了杰克逊维尔，
06:59
He went to New York, to Chicago,
148
395098
1879
他去了洛杉矶。他将一车又一车的人带进大厅里，
07:01
he went to Jacksonville, to Los Angeles.
149
397001
1929
07:03
And he brought in people
by the truckload into big halls.
by the truckload into big halls.
150
398954
3762
07:07
And he sat them down for two hours,
151
402740
1725
让他们坐上两个小时，在这两个小时里，
07:09
and over the course of that two hours,
he gave them ten bowls.
he gave them ten bowls.
152
404489
3327
他给每人十个盘子。
07:12
Ten small bowls of pasta,
153
407840
1258
十小盘意粉，每盘一种不同的意粉酱。
07:13
with a different spaghetti
sauce on each one.
sauce on each one.
154
409122
2458
他们每吃完一盘，就打分，0 到 100，
07:16
And after they ate each bowl,
they had to rate, from 0 to 100,
they had to rate, from 0 to 100,
155
412185
4146
评他们认为这意粉酱有多好。
07:21
how good they thought
the spaghetti sauce was.
the spaghetti sauce was.
156
416355
2621
最后，在经过成年累月的工作之后，
07:24
At the end of that process,
after doing it for months and months,
after doing it for months and months,
157
419490
3071
他有了堆积如山的数据
07:27
he had a mountain of data
158
422585
1543
关于美国人对意粉酱的看法。
07:28
about how the American people
feel about spaghetti sauce.
feel about spaghetti sauce.
159
424152
3824
07:32
And then he analyzed the data.
160
428000
1467
然后他分析这些数据。
07:34
Did he look for the most popular
variety of spaghetti sauce?
variety of spaghetti sauce?
161
429491
3977
他找的是一种最受欢迎的意粉酱口味吗？不是！
07:38
No! Howard doesn't believe
that there is such a thing.
that there is such a thing.
162
433492
2754
霍华德不相信这东西的存在。
相反，他看着这些数据，说：
07:41
Instead, he looked
at the data, and he said,
at the data, and he said,
163
436270
2063
“看看我们能不能将这些不同的数据点归类到不同的群集里。
07:43
let's see if we can group all these
different data points into clusters.
different data points into clusters.
164
438357
5619
07:48
Let's see if they congregate
around certain ideas.
around certain ideas.
165
444000
2452
看看这些群集能不能给我们一些启发。
07:51
And sure enough, if you sit down,
166
447000
2205
当然，如果你坐下仔细分析这些意粉酱的数据，
07:54
and you analyze all this data
on spaghetti sauce,
on spaghetti sauce,
167
449229
3565
07:57
you realize that all Americans
fall into one of three groups.
fall into one of three groups.
168
452818
3110
你就会发现全美国人可分为三组。
其中有喜欢一般意粉酱的人，
08:01
There are people
who like their spaghetti sauce plain;
who like their spaghetti sauce plain;
169
456340
2913
有喜欢辣味意粉酱的人，
08:04
there are people
who like their spaghetti sauce spicy;
who like their spaghetti sauce spicy;
170
459277
2699
08:06
and there are people
who like it extra chunky.
who like it extra chunky.
171
462000
2244
还有喜欢带有额外颗粒的意粉酱的人。
08:09
And of those three facts,
the third one was the most significant,
the third one was the most significant,
172
464929
4047
在这三者中，第三个发现最有价值。
08:13
because at the time, in the early 1980s,
173
469000
2654
因为当时，在八十年代早期，
如果你走进一家超市，
08:16
if you went to a supermarket,
174
471678
1500
你找不到带有额外颗粒的意粉酱。
08:18
you would not find
extra-chunky spaghetti sauce.
extra-chunky spaghetti sauce.
175
473202
3315
08:21
And Prego turned to Howard, and they said,
176
476987
2013
于是 Prego 公司问霍华德：
“你是说三分之一的美国人渴望吃上带有额外颗粒的意粉酱
08:23
"You're telling me
that one third of Americans
that one third of Americans
177
479024
2697
08:26
crave extra-chunky spaghetti sauce
178
481745
3231
08:29
and yet no one is servicing their needs?"
179
485000
2499
但没有人满足他们的需要？” 他说是！
08:32
And he said "Yes!"
180
487523
1024
08:33
(Laughter)
181
488571
1292
于是 Prego 的人回到公司，
08:34
And Prego then went back,
182
489887
1342
全面重新调配了他们的意粉酱，
08:36
and completely reformulated
their spaghetti sauce,
their spaghetti sauce,
183
491253
2372
推出了一系列带有额外颗粒的意粉酱，
08:38
and came out with a line of extra chunky
that immediately and completely
that immediately and completely
184
493649
3654
迅速地全面占领了这个国家的意粉酱市场。
08:42
took over the spaghetti sauce
business in this country.
business in this country.
185
497327
2984
在接下来的十年中，他们的额外颗粒系列意粉酱
08:45
And over the next 10 years,
they made 600 million dollars
they made 600 million dollars
186
500335
4403
带来了六亿美元的生意。
08:49
off their line of extra-chunky sauces.
187
504762
2397
08:52
Everyone else in the industry looked
at Howard had done, and they said,
at Howard had done, and they said,
188
508000
3490
这行业里其他所有人看到霍华德的成就，都说：
“天哪！我们一直都想错了！”
08:56
"Oh my god! We've been
thinking all wrong!"
thinking all wrong!"
189
511514
2407
08:58
And that's when you started to get
seven different kinds of vinegar,
seven different kinds of vinegar,
190
513945
3270
从那时起，我们就有了7种不同的醋，
14种不同的芥末酱，和71种不同的橄榄油 ─
09:02
and 14 different kinds of mustard,
and 71 different kinds of olive oil.
and 71 different kinds of olive oil.
191
517239
5466
最后连 Ragu 也雇佣了霍华德，
09:07
And then eventually
even Ragù hired Howard,
even Ragù hired Howard,
192
522729
3247
09:10
and Howard did the exact same thing
for Ragù that he did for Prego.
for Ragù that he did for Prego.
193
526000
3191
然后霍华德帮 Ragu 做了他帮 Prego 做的一样的工作。
今天，如果你走进超市，一家特别好的，
09:14
And today, if you go
to a really good supermarket,
to a really good supermarket,
194
529215
2351
你会看到 Ragu 有多少种意粉酱…
09:16
do you know how many Ragùs there are?
195
531590
2143
你知道有多少种吗？36！
09:18
36!
196
533757
1000
09:20
In six varieties:
197
535967
1570
六大不同的风味：奶酪，轻怡，留香，
09:22
Cheese, Light,
198
537561
3050
09:25
Robusto, Rich & Hearty,
199
540635
3102
浓郁，传统，额外颗粒。
09:28
Old World Traditional --
200
543761
1310
09:32
Extra-Chunky Garden.
201
547483
1717
09:34
(Laughter)
202
549224
1752
09:35
That's Howard's doing.
203
551000
1744
那就是霍华德的成就。那就是霍华德给全美国人民的礼物。
09:37
That is Howard's gift
to the American people.
to the American people.
204
552768
2208
09:39
Now why is that important?
205
555000
1681
为什么说这很重要呢？
09:41
(Laughter)
206
556705
2271
09:43
It is, in fact, enormously important.
207
559000
2081
这的确至关重要。我会告诉你原因。
09:45
I'll explain to you why.
208
561105
1370
09:47
What Howard did is he fundamentally
changed the way the food industry thinks
changed the way the food industry thinks
209
562499
4121
霍华德所做的事从根本上改变了食品行业里
关于如何取悦你的思维方式
09:51
about making you happy.
210
566644
1421
09:53
Assumption number one
in the food industry used to be
in the food industry used to be
211
569000
2976
食品行业曾遵循的头号信条就是：
09:56
that the way to find out
what people want to eat,
what people want to eat,
212
572000
2700
找出人们想要吃什么的方法，
09:59
what will make people happy,
is to ask them.
is to ask them.
213
574724
2337
找出什么能取悦人们的方法，就是问他们。
10:02
And for years and years and years,
214
577628
1658
年复一年，年复一年地，Ragu 和 Prego 组织小组座谈会，
10:04
Ragù and Prego would have focus groups,
215
579310
2238
他们邀请人们参加，然后问：
10:06
and they would sit you down,
and they would say,
and they would say,
216
581572
2460
“你想要什么样的意粉酱？告诉我们你想要什么样的意粉酱。”
10:08
"What do you want in a spaghetti sauce?
217
584056
1873
10:10
Tell us what you want
in a spaghetti sauce."
in a spaghetti sauce."
218
585953
2075
在那么多年里，二三十年里
10:12
And for all those years -- 20, 30 years --
219
588052
2924
10:15
through all those focus group sessions,
220
591000
1976
所有那些小组座谈会里，
10:17
no one ever said they wanted extra-chunky.
221
593000
3021
从来没有人说过他们想要额外颗粒的意粉酱。
10:21
Even though at least a third of them,
deep in their hearts, actually did.
deep in their hearts, actually did.
222
596754
3451
即使是他们中至少有三分之一，在他们的内心深处，
确实想要额外颗粒。
10:25
(Laughter)
223
600229
1793
10:27
People don't know what they want!
224
602696
2012
人们不知道他们想要什么！对吧？
10:29
As Howard loves to say,
225
604732
1446
如同霍华德常说的：“脑袋不知道舌头想要的是什么。”
10:31
"The mind knows not
what the tongue wants."
what the tongue wants."
226
606202
2752
这是一个迷！
10:33
It's a mystery!
227
608978
1152
10:34
(Laughter)
228
610154
1004
而明白我们自己的欲望和品味的关键一步
10:35
And a critically important step
229
611182
2406
10:38
in understanding
our own desires and tastes
our own desires and tastes
230
613612
3331
是明白我们并不能总说出我们心底想要的是什么。
10:41
is to realize that we cannot always
explain what we want, deep down.
explain what we want, deep down.
231
616967
3632
比如说，如果我问你们在场的所有人，你们想要怎样的咖啡，
10:46
If I asked all of you, for example,
in this room, what you want in a coffee,
in this room, what you want in a coffee,
232
621242
4036
你知道你们会怎么回答吗？你们所有人都会说：“我想要醇厚、浓郁的黑咖啡。”
10:50
you know what you'd say?
233
625302
1328
10:51
Every one of you would say,
"I want a dark, rich, hearty roast."
"I want a dark, rich, hearty roast."
234
626654
4239
当你问人们他们想要怎样的咖啡时，他们总是会这么回答。
10:56
It's what people always say
when you ask them.
when you ask them.
235
631555
2158
你喜欢什么？醇厚、浓郁的黑咖啡！
10:58
"What do you like?"
"Dark, rich, hearty roast!"
"Dark, rich, hearty roast!"
236
633737
2532
你们中有多少人真的喜欢醇厚、浓郁的黑咖啡？
11:01
What percentage of you actually
like a dark, rich, hearty roast?
like a dark, rich, hearty roast?
237
636293
3513
11:04
According to Howard, somewhere
between 25 and 27 percent of you.
between 25 and 27 percent of you.
238
639830
3048
按照霍华德的数据，只有 25% 到 27% 的人。
你们中大多数人喜欢奶味的淡咖啡。
11:08
Most of you like milky, weak coffee.
239
643567
2195
11:10
(Laughter)
240
645786
1001
11:11
But you will never, ever say
to someone who asks you what you want
to someone who asks you what you want
241
646811
3332
但是别人问你喜欢什么时，你绝不会承认
“我想要奶味的淡咖啡。”
11:14
that "I want a milky, weak coffee."
242
650167
2191
这就是霍华德的第一个成就。
11:17
So that's number one thing
that Howard did.
that Howard did.
243
652382
2899
11:21
Number two thing that Howard did
is he made us realize --
is he made us realize --
244
656528
3448
霍华德的第二个成就，就是让我们认识到，
11:24
it's another very critical point --
245
660000
1976
这一点也非常重要，
11:26
he made us realize the importance
246
662000
2174
他让我们认识到他所谓的“横向分类”的重要。
11:28
of what he likes to call
"horizontal segmentation."
"horizontal segmentation."
247
664198
2999
11:32
Why is this critical?
248
668000
1015
这为什么重要？因为
11:33
Because this is the way the food industry
thought before Howard.
thought before Howard.
249
669039
3698
在霍华德之前，食品行业是这么想的：
他们在八十年代早期热衷于什么？他们热衷于芥末酱。
11:37
What were they obsessed with
in the early 80s?
in the early 80s?
250
672761
2310
11:39
They were obsessed with mustard.
251
675095
1540
11:41
In particular, they were obsessed
with the story of Grey Poupon.
with the story of Grey Poupon.
252
676659
3317
具体来说，他们热衷于 Grey Poupon 公司的故事。对吧？
11:44
Used to be, there were two mustards:
French's and Gulden's.
French's and Gulden's.
253
680000
3201
曾经，只有两种芥末酱。French's 牌和 Gulden's 牌。
它们是怎样的？黄色芥末酱。黄色芥末酱里面有什么？
11:48
What were they? Yellow mustard.
254
683225
1493
11:49
What's in it?
255
684742
1015
黄芥末籽，姜黄，和辣椒粉。这就是芥末酱。
11:50
Yellow mustard seeds,
turmeric, and paprika.
turmeric, and paprika.
256
685781
2054
11:52
That was mustard.
257
687859
1074
11:53
Grey Poupon came along, with a Dijon.
258
688957
2525
Grey Poupon 来了，推出了狄戎芥末酱。对吧？
11:56
Right?
259
691506
1188
更浓郁的褐色芥末籽，少许冲鼻的白葡萄酒
11:57
Much more volatile brown mustard seed,
some white wine, a nose hit,
some white wine, a nose hit,
260
692718
5663
更精致的香料。然后他们怎么做？
12:03
much more delicate aromatics.
261
698405
1938
12:05
And what do they do?
262
700367
1015
他们把它用一个小玻璃罐子装起来，贴上一个精美的彩饰标签。
12:06
They put it in a little tiny glass jar,
with a wonderful enameled label on it,
with a wonderful enameled label on it,
263
701406
4799
弄得看上去很法式，尽管它是在加州的奥克斯纳德市生产的。
12:11
made it look French,
264
706229
1074
12:12
even though it's made
in Oxnard, California.
in Oxnard, California.
265
707327
2101
12:14
(Laughter)
266
709452
1001
然后他们决定把八盎司装的卖到四美元一瓶，
12:15
And instead of charging a dollar fifty
for the eight-ounce bottle,
for the eight-ounce bottle,
267
710477
4499
12:19
the way that French's and Gulden's did,
268
715000
1973
而不是像 French's 和 Gulden's 一样卖一美元五十分。
12:21
they decided to charge four dollars.
269
716997
1727
他们打出广告。广告上的人坐在劳斯莱斯里，
12:23
And they had those ads.
270
718748
1212
12:24
With the guy in the Rolls Royce,
eating the Grey Poupon.
eating the Grey Poupon.
271
719984
2635
他吃着 Grey Poupon 芥末酱，另外一辆劳斯莱斯靠了上来，
12:27
Another pulls up, and says,
"Do you have any Grey Poupon?"
"Do you have any Grey Poupon?"
272
722643
2786
车主问：“你还有 Grey Poupon 吗？”
他们做了这一切之后，Grey Poupon 一跃而起！
12:30
And the whole thing, after they did that,
Grey Poupon takes off!
Grey Poupon takes off!
273
725453
3184
占领了芥末酱市场！
12:33
Takes over the mustard business!
274
728661
1524
所有人从中学到的就是：
12:35
And everyone's take-home lesson from that
275
730209
2008
12:37
was that the way to make people happy
276
732241
4735
取悦人们的方法
12:41
is to give them something
that is more expensive,
that is more expensive,
277
737000
3394
就是提供给他们更贵的，更令人向往的产品。对吧？
12:45
something to aspire to.
278
740418
2067
让他们抛弃他们现在认为自己喜欢的东西，
12:47
It's to make them turn their back
on what they think they like now,
on what they think they like now,
279
742509
4143
12:51
and reach out for something
higher up the mustard hierarchy.
higher up the mustard hierarchy.
280
746676
3419
去追求更高级别的芥末酱。
12:54
(Laughter)
281
750119
1001
更好的芥末酱！更贵的芥末酱！
12:55
A better mustard!
A more expensive mustard!
A more expensive mustard!
282
751144
2212
更有深度，更有文化，更有内涵的芥末酱。
12:58
A mustard of more sophistication
and culture and meaning.
and culture and meaning.
283
753380
3163
霍华德看到这些，说：“这不对！
13:01
And Howard looked to that
and said, "That's wrong!"
and said, "That's wrong!"
284
756567
2409
芥末酱没有高低之分。
13:04
Mustard does not exist on a hierarchy.
285
759639
2118
芥末酱，和意粉酱一样，是在同一个平面上的。
13:07
Mustard exists, just like tomato sauce,
on a horizontal plane.
on a horizontal plane.
286
762218
4101
13:11
There is no good mustard or bad mustard.
287
766779
2739
不存在好的芥末酱，或者不好的芥末酱。
13:14
There is no perfect mustard
or imperfect mustard.
or imperfect mustard.
288
769542
2526
不存在完美的芥末酱，或者不完美的芥末酱。
只有不同种类，适合不同人群口味的芥末酱。”
13:16
There are only different kinds of mustards
that suit different kinds of people.
that suit different kinds of people.
289
772092
3745
他从根本上将我们对品味的看法民主化了。
13:21
He fundamentally democratized
the way we think about taste.
the way we think about taste.
290
776358
4835
因此，我们该对霍华德·莫斯科维茨再一次表示深深的谢意。
13:26
And for that, as well, we owe
Howard Moskowitz a huge vote of thanks.
Howard Moskowitz a huge vote of thanks.
291
781217
4219
霍华德的第三个成就，也许也是最重要的一个，
13:31
Third thing that Howard did,
and perhaps the most important,
and perhaps the most important,
292
786201
3493
13:34
is Howard confronted the notion
of the Platonic dish.
of the Platonic dish.
293
789718
2839
就是他挑战了“理想菜肴”的概念。
13:37
(Laughter)
294
792581
1001
此话怎讲呢？
13:38
What do I mean by that?
295
793606
1142
13:39
(Laughter)
296
794772
1556
很长一段时间里，食品行业认为
13:41
For the longest time in the food industry,
297
796352
2100
每一道菜肴，都有一种完美的烹饪方法。
13:43
there was a sense that there was one way,
298
798476
2580
13:45
a perfect way, to make a dish.
299
801080
2728
13:49
You go to Chez Panisse,
300
804570
1715
你去 Chez Panisse 餐馆，他们给你红尾鱼刺身
13:51
they give you the red-tail sashimi
with roasted pumpkin seeds
with roasted pumpkin seeds
301
806309
5283
配上一个有烤瓜子和其它一些什么东西的味碟。
13:56
in a something something reduction.
302
811616
1853
他们不会让你从五种味碟中选一种，对吧？
13:58
They don't give you five options
on the reduction.
on the reduction.
303
813493
2483
14:00
They don't say, "Do you want
the extra-chunky reduction, or ...?"
the extra-chunky reduction, or ...?"
304
816000
3594
他们不会问：“您是想要有额外颗粒的味碟呢，还是想要…不会！
14:04
No!
305
819618
1008
你只能配一种味碟。为什么呢？因为 Chez Panisse 的大厨
14:05
You just get the reduction. Why?
306
820650
1547
14:07
Because the chef at Chez Panisse
307
822221
1562
有一套做红尾鱼刺身的完美方法。
14:08
has a Platonic notion
about red-tail sashimi.
about red-tail sashimi.
308
823807
2588
这道菜就该这么做。
14:11
"This is the way it ought to be."
309
826419
1882
14:13
And she serves it that way
time and time again,
time and time again,
310
828920
4056
她总是用同样的方法做这道菜。
14:17
and if you quarrel with her, she will say,
311
833000
2262
如果你和她争论，她会说：
“你懂什么？你错了！我们餐馆的做法是这道菜的最好做法。”
14:20
"You know what? You're wrong!
312
835286
1602
14:22
This is the best way it ought to be
in this restaurant."
in this restaurant."
313
837468
2720
同样的观念也曾影响了整个食品行业。
14:25
Now that same idea fueled
the commercial food industry as well.
the commercial food industry as well.
314
840212
3439
他们有一套做番茄酱的完美方法。
14:29
They had a Platonic notion
of what tomato sauce was.
of what tomato sauce was.
315
844294
3217
从哪来的？从意大利来的。
14:32
And where did that come from?
It came from Italy.
It came from Italy.
316
847535
2441
14:34
Italian tomato sauce is what?
317
850000
2019
意大利番茄酱是怎么样的？是混合的，稀稠的。
14:37
It's blended; it's thin.
318
852375
1600
番茄酱的传统是稀稠的。
14:39
The culture of tomato sauce was thin.
319
854531
2309
14:41
When we talked about "authentic
tomato sauce" in the 1970s,
tomato sauce" in the 1970s,
320
856864
2977
我们在七十年代谈到正宗的番茄酱时，
14:44
we talked about Italian tomato sauce,
321
859865
1809
我们谈的是意大利番茄酱。我们谈的是最早的 Ragu 番茄酱。
14:46
we talked about the earliest Ragùs,
322
861698
1779
没有任何可见的固体成分，对吧。
14:48
which had no visible solids, right?
323
863501
2152
14:50
Which were thin, you just put a little bit
324
866000
2117
酱是稀稠的，你只要在意粉上浇上一点
它就会渗到意粉底部。
14:52
and it sunk down to the bottom
of the pasta.
of the pasta.
325
868141
2048
它曾经是这样的。那我们为什么执着于那样的番茄酱呢？
14:55
That's what it was.
326
870213
1192
14:56
And why were we attached to that?
327
871429
1661
因为我们认为要让人们快乐
14:57
Because we thought
that what it took to make people happy
that what it took to make people happy
328
873114
2738
就要给他们最正宗的番茄酱，这是其一。
15:00
was to provide them with the most
culturally authentic tomato sauce, A.
culturally authentic tomato sauce, A.
329
875876
4594
15:05
And B, we thought that if we gave them
the culturally authentic tomato sauce,
the culturally authentic tomato sauce,
330
880494
5084
其二，我们认为只要我们给他们正宗的番茄酱，
人们就会高兴地接受它。
15:10
then they would embrace it.
331
885602
1428
那就是取悦最大多数人的方法。
15:11
And that's what would please
the maximum number of people.
the maximum number of people.
332
887054
2734
我们那么想的原因，也就是说，
15:15
In other words,
333
890288
2286
烹饪界里人们追寻的是大众口味。
15:17
people in the cooking world
were looking for cooking universals.
were looking for cooking universals.
334
892598
3399
他们寻找的是一种取悦我们所有人的方法。
15:21
They were looking for one way
to treat all of us.
to treat all of us.
335
896336
2438
15:23
And it's good reason for them
to be obsessed
to be obsessed
336
898798
2580
他们沉迷于共性是有原因的，
15:26
with the idea of universals,
337
901402
1382
因为所有科学领域，在整个19世纪和20世纪的绝大部分里，
15:27
because all of science,
338
902808
1397
15:29
through the 19th century
and much of the 20th,
and much of the 20th,
339
904229
2249
都沉迷于共性。
15:31
was obsessed with universals.
340
906502
1669
心理学家、医学家、经济学家全都热衷于寻找
15:32
Psychologists, medical scientists,
economists
economists
341
908195
3988
15:37
were all interested
in finding out the rules
in finding out the rules
342
912207
2088
支配我们行为的共通法则。
15:39
that govern the way all of us behave.
343
914319
2190
但那已经变了，不是吗？
15:42
But that changed, right?
344
917259
1398
15:43
What is the great revolution
in science of the last 10, 15 years?
in science of the last 10, 15 years?
345
918681
3611
过去 10, 15 年里科学界最大的革新是什么？
是由寻找共性到了解多样性的转变。
15:47
It is the movement
from the search for universals
from the search for universals
346
922316
3515
15:50
to the understanding of variability.
347
925855
1849
现在在医学界里，我们不一定想知道
15:53
Now in medical science,
we don't want to know, necessarily,
we don't want to know, necessarily,
348
928339
3637
15:56
just how cancer works,
349
932000
1701
癌症的原理，我们想要知道的是你们的癌症和我的癌症有何不同。
15:58
we want to know how your cancer
is different from my cancer.
is different from my cancer.
350
933725
3251
16:01
I guess my cancer different
from your cancer.
from your cancer.
351
937000
2747
我想是我的癌症是和你们的癌症不同。
16:04
Genetics has opened the door
to the study of human variability.
to the study of human variability.
352
939771
4088
基因学打开了研究人类多样性的大门。
16:08
What Howard Moskowitz
was doing was saying,
was doing was saying,
353
943883
2095
霍华德所做的，是在呼吁番茄酱领域
16:10
"This same revolution needs to happen
in the world of tomato sauce."
in the world of tomato sauce."
354
946002
4111
也需要同样的革新。
16:15
And for that, we owe him
a great vote of thanks.
a great vote of thanks.
355
951000
2572
为此，我们要向他再一次表示感谢。
我给你们最后一个多样性的例子，那就是… 哦，不好意思。
16:20
I'll give you one last
illustration of variability,
illustration of variability,
356
955201
2842
16:22
and that is -- oh, I'm sorry.
357
958067
1841
16:24
Howard not only believed that,
but he took it a second step,
but he took it a second step,
358
959932
3488
霍华德并不只相信多样性，他还更进一步地
指出当我们追寻食品的共通法则时，
16:28
which was to say that when we pursue
universal principles in food,
universal principles in food,
359
963444
5152
16:33
we aren't just making an error;
360
968620
1620
我们不光在犯一个错误，我们还是在给自己帮倒忙。
16:35
we are actually doing ourselves
a massive disservice.
a massive disservice.
361
970264
3348
16:38
And the example he used was coffee.
362
974000
1810
他举的例子是咖啡。
他曾为咖啡做了许多工作，为雀巢咖啡。
16:41
And coffee is something he did
a lot of work with, with Nescafé.
a lot of work with, with Nescafé.
363
976223
4045
16:45
If I were to ask all of you to try
and come up with a brand of coffee --
and come up with a brand of coffee --
364
980746
3498
如果我让你们试着弄出一个牌子的咖啡，
一种咖啡，一种让你们所有人满意的配方，
16:49
a type of coffee, a brew --
that made all of you happy,
that made all of you happy,
365
984268
3022
然后我让你们给那种咖啡打分，
16:52
and then I asked you to rate that coffee,
366
987314
1953
你们给的平均分，以百分制算，会在 60 分左右。
16:54
the average score in this room for coffee
would be about 60 on a scale of 0 to 100.
would be about 60 on a scale of 0 to 100.
367
989291
4057
16:58
If, however, you allowed me
to break you into coffee clusters,
to break you into coffee clusters,
368
993825
3623
不过如果，你们让我将你们分为不同的咖啡口味组，
也许分成三四组，
17:02
maybe three or four coffee clusters,
369
997472
1785
然后我就能为你们每一组做出一种咖啡，
17:04
and I could make coffee just
for each of those individual clusters,
for each of those individual clusters,
370
999281
4695
17:08
your scores would go from 60 to 75 or 78.
371
1004000
3555
让你们的打分从 60 提高到 75 或 78。
17:12
The difference between coffee
at 60 and coffee at 78
at 60 and coffee at 78
372
1008000
5237
这 60 分的咖啡和 78 分的咖啡之间的差别
就是让你望而却步的咖啡
17:18
is a difference between coffee
that makes you wince,
that makes you wince,
373
1013261
2715
17:20
and coffee that makes you
deliriously happy.
deliriously happy.
374
1016000
3004
和让你喜形于色的咖啡之间的差别。
17:24
That is the final, and I think
most beautiful lesson,
most beautiful lesson,
375
1019690
3194
这就是我认为霍华德·莫斯科维茨给我们的最后的，也是最美的启示。
17:27
of Howard Moskowitz:
376
1022908
1335
那就是接受人类的多样性，
17:29
that in embracing the diversity
of human beings,
of human beings,
377
1024267
3709
17:32
we will find a surer way
to true happiness.
to true happiness.
378
1028000
2365
我们就能找到一条确实通往真正快乐的途径。
17:35
Thank you.
379
1030769
1017
谢谢。
17:36
(Applause)
380
1031810
1166
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Malcolm Gladwell - WriterDetective of fads and emerging subcultures, chronicler of jobs-you-never-knew-existed, Malcolm Gladwell's work is toppling the popular understanding of bias, crime, food, marketing, race, consumers and intelligence.
Why you should listen
Malcolm Gladwell searches for the counterintuitive in what we all take to be the mundane: cookies, sneakers, pasta sauce. A New Yorker staff writer since 1996, he visits obscure laboratories and infomercial set kitchens as often as the hangouts of freelance cool-hunters -- a sort of pop-R&D gumshoe -- and for that has become a star lecturer and bestselling author.
Sparkling with curiosity, undaunted by difficult research (yet an eloquent, accessible writer), his work uncovers truths hidden in strange data. His always-delightful blog tackles topics from serial killers to steroids in sports, while provocative recent work in the New Yorker sheds new light on the Flynn effect -- the decades-spanning rise in I.Q. scores.
Gladwell has written four books. The Tipping Point, which began as a New Yorker piece, applies the principles of epidemiology to crime (and sneaker sales), while Blink examines the unconscious processes that allow the mind to "thin slice" reality -- and make decisions in the blink of an eye. His third book, Outliers, questions the inevitabilities of success and identifies the relation of success to nature versus nurture. The newest work, What the Dog Saw and Other Adventures, is an anthology of his New Yorker contributions.
He says: "There is more going on beneath the surface than we think, and more going on in little, finite moments of time than we would guess."
Malcolm Gladwell | Speaker | TED.com