TED2015
Dame Ellen MacArthur: The surprising thing I learned sailing solo around the world
达姆·艾伦·麦克阿瑟: 从独自环球航行领悟到的惊人道理
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你在独自环球航程中，能学到什么呢？单人海员达姆·艾伦·麦克阿瑟环绕了地球一周——带上了必需物品——归来时，领悟到了世界的运行规律，各种连锁循环和有限资源，而我们今天所做的决定将影响我们的未来。她提出了一个对世界经济系统大胆的想法：非线性，而是循环，是生生不息的。
Dame Ellen MacArthur - Circular economy advocate
After setting a record for sailing around the world, Dame Ellen MacArthur has turned her attention toward creating a more "circular" economy -- where resources and power recirculate and regenerate. Full bio
After setting a record for sailing around the world, Dame Ellen MacArthur has turned her attention toward creating a more "circular" economy -- where resources and power recirculate and regenerate. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
When you're a child,
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当你还是个孩子，
00:14
anything and everything is possible.
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凡事皆有可能。
00:18
The challenge, so often,
is hanging on to that as we grow up.
is hanging on to that as we grow up.
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挑战也总是伴随着我们成长。
00:22
And as a four-year-old,
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我四岁的时候，
00:24
I had the opportunity
to sail for the first time.
to sail for the first time.
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有机会第一次出海航行。
00:27
I will never forget
the excitement as we closed the coast.
the excitement as we closed the coast.
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我永远忘不了快接近海岸时的激动，
00:31
I will never forget
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永远忘不了
00:33
the feeling of adventure
as I climbed on board the boat
as I climbed on board the boat
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第一次爬上船
00:36
and stared into her tiny cabin
for the first time.
for the first time.
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并凝视着船舱的感觉。
00:40
But the most amazing feeling
was the feeling of freedom,
was the feeling of freedom,
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但最奇妙的是那种自由的感觉，
00:43
the feeling that I felt
when we hoisted her sails.
when we hoisted her sails.
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那种挂帆起航的感觉。
00:47
As a four-year-old child,
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对于一个四岁的孩子，
那是我能想象到的最大的自由感。
00:49
it was the greatest sense of freedom
that I could ever imagine.
that I could ever imagine.
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00:53
I made my mind up there and then
that one day, somehow,
that one day, somehow,
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那天，不知何故，我下决心
00:56
I was going to sail around the world.
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要出海周游世界。
01:00
So I did what I could in my life
to get closer to that dream.
to get closer to that dream.
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所以我竭尽全力，
只为更接近那个梦想。
只为更接近那个梦想。
01:04
Age 10, it was saving my school
dinner money change.
dinner money change.
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10岁的时候，我开始把在
学校吃饭省下的零钱攒下来。
学校吃饭省下的零钱攒下来。
8年中，我每天只吃土豆泥和烤豆，
01:07
Every single day for eight years,
I had mashed potato and baked beans,
I had mashed potato and baked beans,
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01:11
which cost 4p each, and gravy was free.
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每份只要4便士，而肉汁免费。
01:13
Every day I would pile up the change
on the top of my money box,
on the top of my money box,
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每天我都把零钱堆在存钱罐顶部，
01:17
and when that pile reached a pound,
I would drop it in
I would drop it in
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而每攒够一英磅，
我就把钱放进存钱罐，
我就把钱放进存钱罐，
01:19
and cross off one of the 100 squares
I'd drawn on a piece of paper.
I'd drawn on a piece of paper.
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并划掉在纸上预先画好的
100个空格中的一个。
100个空格中的一个。
01:24
Finally, I bought a tiny dinghy.
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终于，我买到一个小艇。
01:27
I spent hours sitting on it in the garden
dreaming of my goal.
dreaming of my goal.
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我在花园中花了几个小时，
就这么坐在小艇上梦想着我的目标。
就这么坐在小艇上梦想着我的目标。
01:31
I read every book I could on sailing,
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我读了能找到的每一本
关于航行的书，
关于航行的书，
01:34
and then eventually,
having been told by my school
having been told by my school
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然后学校终于通知我，
01:37
I wasn't clever enough to be a vet,
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我还不够资格做一名兽医，
因此17岁那年我离开了学校，
航海学徒的生涯开始了。
航海学徒的生涯开始了。
01:39
left school age 17 to begin
my apprenticeship in sailing.
my apprenticeship in sailing.
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想象一下这是什么感觉吧，
仅仅四年之后，
仅仅四年之后，
01:44
So imagine how it felt
just four years later
just four years later
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01:48
to be sitting in a boardroom
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坐在一间会议室，
01:50
in front of someone who I knew
could make that dream come true.
could make that dream come true.
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面对着一个我知道
可以让我梦想成真的人。
可以让我梦想成真的人。
01:54
I felt like my life
depended on that moment,
depended on that moment,
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我觉得我一生都是由那一刻决定的，
01:58
and incredibly, he said yes.
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而且不可思议的是，他同意了。
02:00
And I could barely contain my excitement
as I sat in that first design meeting
as I sat in that first design meeting
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当我第一次坐在会议室，
02:04
designing a boat
on which I was going to sail
on which I was going to sail
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设计我将用于独自连续
环球航行的船时，
环球航行的船时，
02:07
solo nonstop around the world.
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我几乎无法抑制内心的兴奋。
02:10
From that first meeting
to the finish line of the race,
to the finish line of the race,
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从第一次会议到比赛的终点线，
02:13
it was everything I'd ever imagined.
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这一切我都曾经想象过。
02:15
Just like in my dreams, there were
amazing parts and tough parts.
amazing parts and tough parts.
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正如我想象中的那样，
精彩与艰难并存。
精彩与艰难并存。
02:19
We missed an iceberg by 20 feet.
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我们曾经只差20英尺
就撞到了一个冰山。
就撞到了一个冰山。
02:21
Nine times, I climbed to the top
of her 90-foot mast.
of her 90-foot mast.
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我爬到90英尺的桅杆顶端9次。
02:24
We were blown on our side
in the Southern Ocean.
in the Southern Ocean.
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我们在南大洋逆风行驶。
02:27
But the sunsets, the wildlife,
and the remoteness
and the remoteness
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但是落日，野生动物和
那种偏远之地的景象
那种偏远之地的景象
02:30
were absolutely breathtaking.
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真的美到让人窒息。
02:33
After three months at sea, age just 24,
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在海上航行了三个月，我那时24岁，
02:36
I finished in second position.
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以第二名的成绩完成了比赛。
02:39
I'd loved it, so much so
that within six months
that within six months
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我太喜欢航行了，
甚至在不到6个月后，
甚至在不到6个月后，
02:42
I decided to go around the world again,
but this time not in a race:
but this time not in a race:
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我就决定再次环球航行，
但这次不是比赛：
但这次不是比赛：
02:47
to try to be the fastest person ever
to sail solo nonstop around the world.
to sail solo nonstop around the world.
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是尽量以最快的速度
不停站地进行独自环球航行。
不停站地进行独自环球航行。
02:52
Now for this, I needed a different craft:
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为了实现这个目标，
我需要换一艘船：
我需要换一艘船：
02:55
bigger, wider, faster, more powerful.
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它更大，更宽，更快，动力更足。
02:59
Just to give that boat some scale,
I could climb inside her mast
I could climb inside her mast
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只是把船做得更大一点，
这样我就可以爬进她的桅杆
这样我就可以爬进她的桅杆
03:02
all the way to the top.
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一直到顶部。
03:04
Seventy-five foot long, 60 foot wide.
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75英尺长，60英尺宽。
03:08
I affectionately called her Moby.
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我亲切地称它白鲸。
03:10
She was a multihull.
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她是一个多体船。
03:12
When we built her, no one had ever
made it solo nonstop
made it solo nonstop
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我们造她的时候，
还没人能够不停站地独自
还没人能够不停站地独自
03:15
around the world in one,
though many had tried,
though many had tried,
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环球航行，
尽管很多人试过了，
尽管很多人试过了，
03:18
but whilst we built her, a Frenchman
took a boat 25 percent bigger than her
took a boat 25 percent bigger than her
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但我们造她的同时，一个法国人用了
一艘比它的体积大25%的船，
一艘比它的体积大25%的船，
03:23
and not only did he make it,
but he took the record from 93 days
but he took the record from 93 days
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他不仅成功完成了航行，
而且把记录从93天
而且把记录从93天
03:26
right down to 72.
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降到了72天。
03:29
The bar was now much, much higher.
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现在，这个时间更是被大大缩短了。
03:32
And these boats were exciting to sail.
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而且用这些船航行是非常棒的体验。
03:34
This was a training sail
off the French coast.
off the French coast.
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这是一个法国海岸附近的训练船。
03:37
This I know well because I was one
of the five crew members on board.
of the five crew members on board.
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我很了解这艘船，
因为我曾是上面的5名船员之一。
因为我曾是上面的5名船员之一。
03:41
Five seconds is all it took
from everything being fine
from everything being fine
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只需要5秒钟，
我们的世界就会从一切还好
我们的世界就会从一切还好
03:45
to our world going black
as the windows were thrust underwater,
as the windows were thrust underwater,
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变成一片漆黑，
因为我们的窗户会进入水下，
因为我们的窗户会进入水下，
03:48
and that five seconds goes quickly.
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而那五秒很快。
03:50
Just see how far below
those guys the sea is.
those guys the sea is.
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只要看看这些家伙
比海面高多少就知道了。
比海面高多少就知道了。
03:53
Imagine that alone
in the Southern Ocean
in the Southern Ocean
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想象一下独自在南大洋，
03:57
plunged into icy water,
thousands of miles away from land.
thousands of miles away from land.
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在与陆地相隔千里的地方
陷入冰冷的水中。
陷入冰冷的水中。
04:03
It was Christmas Day.
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那是个圣诞节，
我在澳大利亚南面的南大洋航行。
04:05
I was forging into the Southern Ocean
underneath Australia.
underneath Australia.
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04:08
The conditions were horrendous.
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当时的条件很恶劣。
04:11
I was approaching a part in the ocean
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我正在接近一块距离
04:13
which was 2,000 miles away
from the nearest town.
from the nearest town.
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最近的城镇也有2000英里的海域。
04:17
The nearest land was Antarctica,
and the nearest people
and the nearest people
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最近的陆地是南极洲，而最近的人
04:20
would be those manning
the European Space Station above me.
the European Space Station above me.
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应该是我上面的
那些欧洲空间站的宇航员。
那些欧洲空间站的宇航员。
04:23
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
04:24
You really are in the middle of nowhere.
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这里真的是前不着村后不着店。
04:27
If you need help,
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如果你需要帮助，
04:29
and you're still alive,
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并且还能撑一段时间，
04:30
it takes four days
for a ship to get to you
for a ship to get to you
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一艘船也需要花上四天才能
抵达你所在的地方，
抵达你所在的地方，
04:33
and then four days for that ship
to get you back to port.
to get you back to port.
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然后再用四天把你带回去。
04:37
No helicopter can reach you out there,
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没有直升机可以到那儿，
04:39
and no plane can land.
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也没有飞机可以降落。
04:41
We are forging ahead of a huge storm.
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我们在巨大的风暴中艰难前行。
04:44
Within it, there was 80 knots of wind,
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这里的风速达到80海里每小时，
04:47
which was far too much wind
for the boat and I to cope with.
for the boat and I to cope with.
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这远远超过了一艘船和
我个人可以控制的范围。
我个人可以控制的范围。
04:50
The waves were already 40 to 50 feet high,
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浪高达40至50英尺，
04:53
and the spray from the breaking crests
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破浪的时候产生的水雾
04:55
was blown horizontally
like snow in a blizzard.
like snow in a blizzard.
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像暴风雪一样横扫过来。
04:58
If we didn't sail fast enough,
we'd be engulfed by that storm,
we'd be engulfed by that storm,
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如果我们的航行速度不够快，
就会被那场风暴吞没，
就会被那场风暴吞没，
05:02
and either capsized or smashed to pieces.
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要么翻船，要么粉身碎骨。
05:05
We were quite literally
hanging on for our lives
hanging on for our lives
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毫不夸张地说，我们是把命
05:08
and doing so on a knife edge.
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悬在了刀锋上。
05:11
The speed I so desperately needed
brought with it danger.
brought with it danger.
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我迫切需要的速度带来了危险。
05:15
We all know what it's like driving a car
20 miles an hour, 30, 40.
20 miles an hour, 30, 40.
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我们都知道每小时驾车20英里
是什么感觉，或者30，40英里，
是什么感觉，或者30，40英里，
05:19
It's not too stressful.
We can concentrate.
We can concentrate.
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这不会让人觉得太紧张，
集中注意力就好。
集中注意力就好。
05:22
We can turn on the radio.
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我们甚至还能听点广播节目。
05:24
Take that 50, 60, 70, accelerate through
to 80, 90, 100 miles an hour.
to 80, 90, 100 miles an hour.
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但是当速度从50，60，70，
加速到80，90，100英里每小时，
加速到80，90，100英里每小时，
05:28
Now you have white knuckles
and you're gripping the steering wheel.
and you're gripping the steering wheel.
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现在你会感到极度紧张，
需要牢牢地抓住方向盘。
需要牢牢地抓住方向盘。
05:31
Now take that car off road at night
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现在假设你在晚上把车开离公路，
05:34
and remove the windscreen wipers,
the windscreen,
the windscreen,
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并且拆掉雨刷和挡风玻璃，
05:36
the headlights and the brakes.
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还有头灯和刹车。
05:38
That's what it's like
in the Southern Ocean.
in the Southern Ocean.
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这就是在南大洋（航行）的感觉。
05:40
(Laughter) (Applause)
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（笑声）（掌声）
05:45
You could imagine
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你可以想象
在那种情况下很难睡着，
05:46
it would be quite difficult
to sleep in that situation,
to sleep in that situation,
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05:48
even as a passenger.
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即便只是作为乘客。
05:50
But you're not a passenger.
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但你不是个乘客。
你独自在船上，
连保持站立的姿势都很困难，
连保持站立的姿势都很困难，
05:52
You're alone on a boat
you can barely stand up in,
you can barely stand up in,
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05:54
and you have to make
every single decision on board.
every single decision on board.
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还必须独自在船上做出每一个决定。
05:57
I was absolutely exhausted,
physically and mentally.
physically and mentally.
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我绝对已经精疲力竭了，
不管是身体上还是精神上。
不管是身体上还是精神上。
06:00
Eight sail changes in 12 hours.
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12个小时内八个航行变化。
06:02
The mainsail weighed
three times my body weight,
three times my body weight,
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主帆的重量是我体重的三倍，
06:05
and after each change,
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每次改变航向后，
06:06
I would collapse on the floor
soaked with sweat
soaked with sweat
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我都会大汗淋漓地瘫坐下来，
06:09
with this freezing Southern Ocean air
burning the back of my throat.
burning the back of my throat.
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冰冷的南大洋空气
不断侵蚀着我的喉咙。
不断侵蚀着我的喉咙。
06:13
But out there, those lowest of the lows
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但在那种情况下，
绝境往往能够带来
绝境往往能够带来
06:16
are so often contrasted
with the highest of the highs.
with the highest of the highs.
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意想不到的惊喜和成功。
06:19
A few days later, we came out
of the back of the low.
of the back of the low.
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几天后，
我们总算度过了最艰难的时期。
我们总算度过了最艰难的时期。
06:23
Against all odds, we'd been able
to drive ahead of the record
to drive ahead of the record
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排除万难后，我们在重压之下终于
06:27
within that depression.
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打破了航行的记录。
06:29
The sky cleared, the rain stopped,
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天空放晴，雨也停了，
06:32
and our heartbeat, the monstrous
seas around us were transformed
seas around us were transformed
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而我们的心跳和滔天巨浪，
06:36
into the most beautiful moonlit mountains.
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也转化成了铺满月光的群山，
美不胜收。
美不胜收。
06:40
It's hard to explain, but you enter
a different mode when you head out there.
a different mode when you head out there.
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这很难解释，但你到达那里的时候，
你就进入了不同的模式。
你就进入了不同的模式。
06:44
Your boat is your entire world,
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船就是你的整个世界，
06:46
and what you take with you
when you leave is all you have.
when you leave is all you have.
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而你离开时携带的东西
也是你的全部家当。
也是你的全部家当。
06:49
If I said to you all now,
"Go off into Vancouver
"Go off into Vancouver
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如果我现在对你们说：“去温哥华
06:52
and find everything you will need for
your survival for the next three months,"
your survival for the next three months,"
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找到你在接下来三个月
生存所需要的一切东西，”
生存所需要的一切东西，”
06:56
that's quite a task.
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这可是一项艰巨的任务。
06:58
That's food, fuel, clothes,
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那包括食物，燃料，衣服，
07:00
even toilet roll and toothpaste.
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甚至卫生纸和牙膏。
07:02
That's what we do,
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这就是我们做的，
07:04
and when we leave we manage it
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当我们离开时，
准备计划需要精细到
准备计划需要精细到
07:06
down to the last drop of diesel
and the last packet of food.
and the last packet of food.
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最后一滴油和最后一包食物。
07:10
No experience in my life
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在我的生命中，
07:11
could have given me a better understanding
of the definition of the word "finite."
of the definition of the word "finite."
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没有任何经历可以像这样
让我理解到“有限”这个词的意义。
让我理解到“有限”这个词的意义。
07:15
What we have out there is all we have.
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我们带到那儿的就是全部家当。
07:17
There is no more.
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不可能有任何补给。
07:19
And never in my life had I ever
translated that definition of finite
translated that definition of finite
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而我从没在生命中经历过
07:22
that I'd felt on board
to anything outside of sailing
to anything outside of sailing
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航行时在船上感受到的
这种“有限”的概念，
这种“有限”的概念，
07:26
until I stepped off the boat at
the finish line having broken that record.
the finish line having broken that record.
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直到我在终点线下船的时候
打破了那个记录。
打破了那个记录。
07:30
(Applause)
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（掌声）
07:36
Suddenly I connected the dots.
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突然我找到了一些关联性。
07:38
Our global economy is no different.
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我们的全球经济其实没有什么不同。
07:41
It's entirely dependent
on finite materials
on finite materials
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它完全依赖于那些
07:44
we only have once
in the history of humanity.
in the history of humanity.
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我们在人类历史上
只会拥有一次的资源。
只会拥有一次的资源。
07:46
And it was a bit like seeing something
you weren't expecting under a stone
you weren't expecting under a stone
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有点像在一块石头下面看到了
意想不到的东西，
意想不到的东西，
07:50
and having two choices:
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你有两种选择：
07:52
I either put that stone to one side
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要么我把那块石头放一边，
07:54
and learn more about it,
or I put that stone back
or I put that stone back
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并仔细研究它，
或者我把它放回去，
或者我把它放回去，
07:58
and I carry on with my dream job
of sailing around the world.
of sailing around the world.
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然后继续我的环球航行梦。
08:02
I chose the first.
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我选择了第一种。
08:04
I put it to one side and I began
a new journey of learning,
a new journey of learning,
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我把它放在一边，
并开始了新的学习旅程。
并开始了新的学习旅程。
08:07
speaking to chief executives,
experts, scientists, economists
experts, scientists, economists
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跟首席执行官，专家，
科学家，经济学家探讨，
科学家，经济学家探讨，
08:11
to try to understand just how
our global economy works.
our global economy works.
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试图了解我们的
全球经济是怎么运行的。
全球经济是怎么运行的。
08:14
And my curiosity took me
to some extraordinary places.
to some extraordinary places.
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而好奇心把我带到了
一些很棒的地方。
一些很棒的地方。
08:18
This photo was taken in the burner
of a coal-fired power station.
of a coal-fired power station.
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这张照片拍摄于
一个火力发电站的燃烧炉。
一个火力发电站的燃烧炉。
我对煤很着迷，
它是全球能源需求的最基本来源，
它是全球能源需求的最基本来源，
08:23
I was fascinated by coal,
fundamental to our global energy needs,
fundamental to our global energy needs,
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但它也跟我的家庭很有缘。
08:26
but also very close to my family.
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我的曾祖父是一名煤矿工人，
08:29
My great-grandfather was a coal miner,
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他在地下矿井工作了50年。
08:31
and he spent 50 years
of his life underground.
of his life underground.
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这是他的照片
当你看到这张照片，
当你看到这张照片，
08:35
This is a photo of him,
and when you see that photo,
and when you see that photo,
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你看到的是另一个时代的人。
08:38
you see someone from another era.
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现在这个年代已经没人穿
08:40
No one wears trousers
with a waistband quite that high
with a waistband quite that high
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那么高腰的裤子了。（笑声）
08:43
in this day and age. (Laughter)
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不过这就是我和我的曾祖父。
08:46
But yet, that's me
with my great-grandfather,
with my great-grandfather,
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08:48
and by the way, they are not
his real ears. (Laughter)
his real ears. (Laughter)
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顺便说一句，
他照片里的耳朵是假的。（笑声）
他照片里的耳朵是假的。（笑声）
08:53
We were close. I remember sitting on
his knee listening to his mining stories.
his knee listening to his mining stories.
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我们很亲近。我还记得坐在他的膝上
听他讲挖煤的故事。
听他讲挖煤的故事。
08:57
He talked of the camaraderie underground,
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他讲过矿井下的友情，
还有矿工们曾经省下三明治的外皮，
08:59
and the fact that the miners used to save
the crusts of their sandwiches
the crusts of their sandwiches
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喂给跟他们一起工作的小马驹吃。
09:03
to give to the ponies
they worked with underground.
they worked with underground.
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09:06
It was like it was yesterday.
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感觉就像昨天的事。
在我学习的旅程中，
09:08
And on my journey of learning,
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09:10
I went to the World
Coal Association website,
Coal Association website,
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我访问了世界煤炭工业协会的网站，
在主页的中间位置，有这样一句话：
09:12
and there in the middle
of the homepage, it said,
of the homepage, it said,
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“我们大约还剩118年的煤炭储量。”
09:15
"We have about 118 years of coal left."
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我想，还好，
那是我死了很久之后的事儿了，
那是我死了很久之后的事儿了，
09:18
And I thought to myself, well,
that's well outside my lifetime,
that's well outside my lifetime,
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09:21
and a much greater figure
than the predictions for oil.
than the predictions for oil.
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而且比预测的石油储量大多了。
但我算了下，意识到
（搜索的）那一年之前
（搜索的）那一年之前
09:24
But I did the math, and I realized
that my great-grandfather
that my great-grandfather
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刚好是我曾祖父118岁诞辰，
09:27
had been born exactly 118 years
before that year,
before that year,
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4574
而我坐在他的膝上直到11岁，
09:31
and I sat on his knee
until I was 11 years old,
until I was 11 years old,
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我意识到这点时间
09:34
and I realized it's nothing
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1904
在历史的长河中不算什么，
09:36
in time, nor in history.
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2322
这促使我做出了
我从没想过的一个决定：
我从没想过的一个决定：
09:38
And it made me make a decision
I never thought I would make:
I never thought I would make:
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不再独自航行，
09:42
to leave the sport
of solo sailing behind me
of solo sailing behind me
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09:44
and focus on the greatest challenge
I'd ever come across:
I'd ever come across:
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而专注于我遇到的最大的挑战上：
09:47
the future of our global economy.
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全球经济的未来。
09:49
And I quickly realized it wasn't
just about energy.
just about energy.
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很快我就意识到不仅仅能源是有限的。
09:52
It was also materials.
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2043
各种材料也是。
2008年，我做了一个科学研究，
09:54
In 2008, I picked up a scientific study
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看看那些需要通过地下开采获得的
09:56
looking at how many years we have
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有价值的原料还有多少年的储量。
09:58
of valuable materials
to extract from the ground:
to extract from the ground:
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铜，61年；锡，锌，40年；
银，29年。
银，29年。
10:01
copper, 61; tin, zinc, 40; silver, 29.
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这些数字可能并不准确，
但我们知道这些资源都是有限的，
但我们知道这些资源都是有限的，
10:05
These figures couldn't be exact,
but we knew those materials were finite.
but we knew those materials were finite.
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用完即枯竭，不可再生。
10:09
We only have them once.
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1737
然而，我们使用这些材料的
速度一直在迅速增长，
速度一直在迅速增长，
10:11
And yet, our speed that we've used
these materials has increased rapidly,
these materials has increased rapidly,
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甚至是指数增长。
10:15
exponentially.
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随着世界人口越来越多，
产品也更多，
产品也更多，
10:16
With more people in the world
with more stuff,
with more stuff,
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我们已经看到100年来
基本商品价格的
基本商品价格的
10:19
we've effectively seen
100 years of price declines
100 years of price declines
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下降趋势在短短10年内就被打破了。
10:22
in those basic commodities
erased in just 10 years.
erased in just 10 years.
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2845
这会影响我们所有的人。
10:25
And this affects all of us.
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1787
它带来了价格的巨大波动，
10:27
It's brought huge volatility in prices,
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10:29
so much so that in 2011,
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2849
以至于在2011年，
普通的欧洲汽车制造商都看到
10:32
your average European car manufacturer
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2538
10:34
saw a raw material price increase
208
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2554
原材料价格上涨了
5亿欧元，
10:37
of 500 million Euros,
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2206
吞噬了他们一半的营业利润，
10:39
wiping away half their operating profits
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2322
而面对这一切他们却束手无策。
10:41
through something they have
absolutely no control over.
absolutely no control over.
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随着我的了解逐渐深入，
我的生活也开始发生了改变。
我的生活也开始发生了改变。
10:45
And the more I learned, the more
I started to change my own life.
I started to change my own life.
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我开始减少旅行的次数，
过更平淡的生活，避免浪费。
过更平淡的生活，避免浪费。
10:48
I started traveling less,
doing less, using less.
doing less, using less.
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2289
10:50
It felt like actually doing less
was what we had to do.
was what we had to do.
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3541
好像减少浪费是我们不得不做的。
但是这很难做到。
10:54
But it sat uneasy with me.
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2350
也许并不是个好方法。
10:56
It didn't feel right.
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1122
好像我们在给自己买时间。
10:57
It felt like we were
buying ourselves time.
buying ourselves time.
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2496
11:00
We were eking things out a bit longer.
218
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1892
我们只是勉强把
使用时间延长了一点点。
使用时间延长了一点点。
11:02
Even if everybody changed,
it wouldn't solve the problem.
it wouldn't solve the problem.
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即使每个人都开始节约，
也无法解决根本的问题。
也无法解决根本的问题。
11:05
It wouldn't fix the system.
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2044
无法修复整个系统。
过渡的过程至关重要，
但是使我着迷的是
但是使我着迷的是
11:07
It was vital in the transition,
but what fascinated me was,
but what fascinated me was,
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3041
11:10
in the transition to what?
What could actually work?
What could actually work?
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要过渡到什么样的状态？
到底什么才是行之有效的方法？
到底什么才是行之有效的方法？
11:14
It struck me that the system itself,
the framework within which we live,
the framework within which we live,
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我突然意识到系统本身，
我们生活的框架
我们生活的框架
11:19
is fundamentally flawed,
224
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2299
是有根本缺陷的，
11:21
and I realized ultimately
225
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3259
最终我意识到，
我们的操作系统，
经济运作方式，
经济运作方式，
11:24
that our operating system,
the way our economy functions,
the way our economy functions,
226
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3033
11:27
the way our economy's been built,
is a system in itself.
is a system in itself.
227
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3483
经济的建设方式，
这一切本身就自成系统。
这一切本身就自成系统。
11:31
At sea, I had to understand
complex systems.
complex systems.
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2902
在海上，我必须了解复杂的系统。
11:34
I had to take multiple inputs,
229
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1878
我不得不提出多种指令，
不得不处理它们，
11:36
I had to process them,
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1512
要想赢，我就得去了解这个系统。
11:37
and I had to understand the system to win.
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2888
我得搞懂这一切。
11:40
I had to make sense of it.
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当我看着全球经济的时候，
我意识到它也是这样的系统，
我意识到它也是这样的系统，
11:42
And as I looked at our global economy,
I realized it too is that system,
I realized it too is that system,
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4063
11:46
but it's a system that effectively
can't run in the long term.
can't run in the long term.
234
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4412
但这个系统不能有效地长期运行。
11:50
And I realized we've been perfecting
what's effectively a linear economy
what's effectively a linear economy
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3761
我还意识到我们已经在过去的
150年中完善了有效的
150年中完善了有效的
11:54
for 150 years,
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1870
线性经济，
我们从地下开采原料，
11:56
where we take a material
out of the ground,
out of the ground,
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2031
做成产品，最后
11:58
we make something out of it,
and then ultimately
and then ultimately
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2508
扔掉那个产品，
当然，我们也回收一些东西，
当然，我们也回收一些东西，
12:00
that product gets thrown away,
and yes, we do recycle some of it,
and yes, we do recycle some of it,
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3274
12:04
but more an attempt to get out
what we can at the end,
what we can at the end,
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但更多的是尝试在最后尽点力回收，
12:07
not by design.
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2206
而不是事先设计好的。
12:09
It's an economy that fundamentally
can't run in the long term,
can't run in the long term,
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这是一个从根本上就
不可能长期运行的经济，
不可能长期运行的经济，
如果我们知道我们只有有限的原料，
12:12
and if we know that we
have finite materials,
have finite materials,
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3033
12:15
why would we build an economy
that would effectively use things up,
that would effectively use things up,
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3329
为什么还要建立一个快速消耗，
并会造成浪费的
并会造成浪费的
经济系统呢？
12:18
that would create waste?
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1858
生命本身已经存在了数十亿年，
12:20
Life itself has existed
for billions of years
for billions of years
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2925
并不断适应有效地使用原料。
12:23
and has continually adapted
to use materials effectively.
to use materials effectively.
247
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3622
12:27
It's a complex system,
but within it, there is no waste.
but within it, there is no waste.
248
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3321
这是一个复杂的系统，
但在这个系统内没有浪费。
但在这个系统内没有浪费。
12:30
Everything is metabolized.
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2229
一切都被代谢掉了。
12:33
It's not a linear economy
at all, but circular.
at all, but circular.
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3539
这完全不是线性经济，它是循环的，
12:37
And I felt like the child in the garden.
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2997
我就像个孩子在花园中。
12:40
For the first time on this new journey,
I could see exactly where we were headed.
I could see exactly where we were headed.
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4667
在这个学习的旅程中，
我第一次看清了前进的方向。
我第一次看清了前进的方向。
如果我们可以建立一种使用原料
而不是耗尽原料的经济，
而不是耗尽原料的经济，
12:45
If we could build an economy that would
use things rather than use them up,
use things rather than use them up,
253
753598
3784
我们就可以建立一个
让一切长期运转的未来。
让一切长期运转的未来。
12:49
we could build a future that really
could work in the long term.
could work in the long term.
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3228
我很激动。
12:52
I was excited.
255
760610
1904
这是可以努力的方向。
12:54
This was something to work towards.
256
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2159
一旦知道要做什么，
只需要找出实现目标的途径就行了，
只需要找出实现目标的途径就行了，
12:56
We knew exactly where we were headed.
We just had to work out how to get there,
We just had to work out how to get there,
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3777
于是有了这个想法之后，
13:00
and it was exactly with this in mind
258
768450
1930
我们于2010年9月
创建了Ellen MacArthur基金。
创建了Ellen MacArthur基金。
13:02
that we created the Ellen MacArthur
Foundation in September 2010.
Foundation in September 2010.
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学校的教育塑造了我们的思维
并指向了这种模式：
并指向了这种模式：
13:07
Many schools of thought fed our thinking
and pointed to this model:
and pointed to this model:
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产业共生，性能经济，
共享经济，仿生学，
共享经济，仿生学，
13:11
industrial symbiosis, performance economy,
sharing economy, biomimicry,
sharing economy, biomimicry,
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13:15
and of course, cradle-to-cradle design.
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当然，还有初始到初始的
循环设计。
循环设计。
原料可以是技术性的或生物类的，
13:18
Materials would be defined
as either technical or biological,
as either technical or biological,
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13:22
waste would be designed out entirely,
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垃圾会被完全设计出来。
13:25
and we would have a system
that could function
that could function
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我们将会有一个绝对
13:28
absolutely in the long term.
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长期有效的系统。
13:30
So what could this economy look like?
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那么，这个经济会是什么样子？
也许我们不会买灯具
但是我们可以付照明费，
但是我们可以付照明费，
13:33
Maybe we wouldn't buy light fittings,
but we'd pay for the service of light,
but we'd pay for the service of light,
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而厂家将回收这些材料
13:37
and the manufacturers
would recover the materials
would recover the materials
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并用更高效的产品改变灯具的性能。
13:39
and change the light fittings
when we had more efficient products.
when we had more efficient products.
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如果包装可溶于水并无毒，
13:42
What if packaging was so nontoxic
it could dissolve in water
it could dissolve in water
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最后还能被喝掉呢？
它就永远不会变成废品。
它就永远不会变成废品。
13:45
and we could ultimately drink it?
It would never become waste.
It would never become waste.
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13:49
What if engines were re-manufacturable,
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如果引擎可以重新制造呢？
我们就可以回收组件材料，
13:51
and we could recover
the component materials
the component materials
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13:53
and significantly reduce energy demand.
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从而显著降低能源需求。
13:55
What if we could recover components
from circuit boards, reutilize them,
from circuit boards, reutilize them,
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如果我们可以从电路板回收部件，
并重新利用，
并重新利用，
然后经过第二阶段
13:59
and then fundamentally recover
the materials within them
the materials within them
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从根本上回收其中的材料呢？
14:01
through a second stage?
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如果我们可以收集食品垃圾，
人类排泄物呢？
人类排泄物呢？
14:03
What if we could collect
food waste, human waste?
food waste, human waste?
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如果我们可以把他们转化成肥料，
热和其他能源，
热和其他能源，
14:05
What if we could turn that
into fertilizer, heat, energy,
into fertilizer, heat, energy,
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14:08
ultimately reconnecting nutrients systems
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并最终把整个营养系统联系起来
重建自然资本呢？
14:11
and rebuilding natural capital?
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还有汽车——
我们需要的只是变换地点。
我们需要的只是变换地点。
14:14
And cars -- what we want
is to move around.
is to move around.
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我们并不需要去拥有这些材料。
14:17
We don't need to own
the materials within them.
the materials within them.
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汽车可以成为一种服务，
14:20
Could cars become a service
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并在未来为我们提供移动性吗？
14:21
and provide us with
mobility in the future?
mobility in the future?
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14:25
All of this sounds amazing, but these
aren't just ideas, they're real today,
aren't just ideas, they're real today,
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这些听起来很神奇，
但它们不再只是想法，如今已经实现了，
但它们不再只是想法，如今已经实现了，
14:29
and these lie at the forefront
of the circular economy.
of the circular economy.
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而且位于循环经济的最前沿。
我们面临是要如何扩展他们并规模化。
14:31
What lies before us is to expand them
and scale them up.
and scale them up.
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14:36
So how would you shift
from linear to circular?
from linear to circular?
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所以，要如何将线性经济
转向循环经济?
转向循环经济?
14:39
Well, the team and I at the foundation
thought you might want to work
thought you might want to work
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我和我的团队基本的想法是
也许可以跟世界的顶尖大学合作，
14:43
with the top universities in the world,
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与全球的尖端企业合作，
14:45
with leading businesses within the world,
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跟世界上最大的集合平台合作，
14:47
with the biggest convening
platforms in the world,
platforms in the world,
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还有政府。
14:49
and with governments.
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我们认为你也许想和
世界上最好的分析师工作，
世界上最好的分析师工作，
14:50
We thought you might want
to work with the best analysts
to work with the best analysts
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并问他们一些问题，
14:53
and ask them the question,
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“可循环经济能够挣脱资源约束吗？
14:54
"Can the circular economy decouple
growth from resource constraints?
growth from resource constraints?
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14:57
Is the circular economy able
to rebuild natural capital?
to rebuild natural capital?
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可循环经济能重建自然资本吗？
可循环经济能取代现在的化肥吗？”
15:01
Could the circular economy
replace current chemical fertilizer use?"
replace current chemical fertilizer use?"
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答案是，是的，
15:04
Yes was the answer to the decoupling,
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2346
而且是的，我们还可以取代现代化肥，
15:07
but also yes, we could replace
current fertilizer use
current fertilizer use
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并实现惊人的2.7倍的效果。
15:10
by a staggering 2.7 times.
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但是循环经济激发我最多的是，
15:14
But what inspired me most
about the circular economy
about the circular economy
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它能给年轻人带来启发。
15:17
was its ability to inspire young people.
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当年轻人通过循环透镜
看经济的时候，
看经济的时候，
15:20
When young people see the economy
through a circular lens,
through a circular lens,
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他们以同样的眼界看到了全新的机会。
15:23
they see brand new opportunities
on exactly the same horizon.
on exactly the same horizon.
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他们可以用自己的创造力和知识
15:28
They can use their creativity
and knowledge
and knowledge
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来重建整个系统，
15:31
to rebuild the entire system,
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而且现在就可以采取行动，
15:33
and it's there for the taking right now,
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越早越好。
15:35
and the faster we do this, the better.
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15:38
So could we achieve this
in their lifetimes?
in their lifetimes?
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那么我们可以在有生之年实现这些吗？
这真的可能吗？
15:41
Is it actually possible?
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我相信这是可能的。
15:43
I believe yes.
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看看我曾祖父的一生，
什么都有可能发生。
什么都有可能发生。
15:45
When you look at the lifetime of
my great-grandfather, anything's possible.
my great-grandfather, anything's possible.
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他出生时，世界上只有25辆汽车；
15:49
When he was born, there were only
25 cars in the world;
25 cars in the world;
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这些汽车也才刚被发明。
15:53
they had only just been invented.
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他14岁时，
我们实现了历史上第一次飞行。
我们实现了历史上第一次飞行。
15:55
When he was 14, we flew
for the first time in history.
for the first time in history.
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15:59
Now there are 100,000 charter flights
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而现在每一天就有10万正常的航班
16:02
every single day.
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1946
飞来飞去。
他45岁的时候，
我们建造了第一台计算机，
我们建造了第一台计算机，
16:04
When he was 45, we built
the first computer.
the first computer.
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许多人说计算机不会流行起来，
但他们错了，而且仅仅20年后，
但他们错了，而且仅仅20年后，
16:08
Many said it wouldn't catch on,
but it did, and just 20 years later
but it did, and just 20 years later
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我们就把它变成了一个微芯片，
16:11
we turned it into a microchip
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2021
今天仅在这个房间里
就有成千上万个。
就有成千上万个。
16:13
of which there will be thousands
in this room here today.
in this room here today.
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16:17
Ten years before he died,
we built the first mobile phone.
we built the first mobile phone.
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他去世的10年前，
我们有了第一个移动电话。
我们有了第一个移动电话。
16:20
It wasn't that mobile, to be fair,
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老实说，
那时候其实不怎么移动，
那时候其实不怎么移动，
但现在真的是移动的了，
16:22
but now it really is,
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1974
在我曾祖父去世的时候，
互联网出现了。
互联网出现了。
16:24
and as my great-grandfather
left this Earth, the Internet arrived.
left this Earth, the Internet arrived.
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现在，我们可以做任何事情，
16:28
Now we can do anything,
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16:30
but more importantly,
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但更重要是，
16:31
now we have a plan.
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现在我们有了个计划。
谢谢。
16:33
Thank you.
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（掌声）
16:36
(Applause)
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Reviewed by Lee Li
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dame Ellen MacArthur - Circular economy advocateAfter setting a record for sailing around the world, Dame Ellen MacArthur has turned her attention toward creating a more "circular" economy -- where resources and power recirculate and regenerate.
Why you should listen
It's a tradition among British citizens: If you circumnavigate the globe by sail, you'll earn royal honors. Ellen MacArthur was made a dame in 2005 after the fastest solo sail around the world. But when you sail alone around the world, things come into focus. Dame Ellen, at the top of her sailing career, had become acutely aware of the finite nature of the resources our linear economy relies on.
In 2010, she launched the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, which works with education and business to accelerate the transition to a regenerative circular economy. She also runs the Ellen MacArthur Cancer Trust, using sailing to build confidence for kids following cancer treatment.
Dame Ellen MacArthur | Speaker | TED.com