TED2006
Michael Shermer: Why people believe weird things
Michael Shermer om at tro på mærkelige ting
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Hvorfor ser mennesker Jomfru Maria på en ostesandwich, eller hører dæmoniske sangtekster i "Stairway to Heaven"? Ved brug af video og musik viser skeptiker Michael Shermer, hvordan vi overbeviser os selv om at tro -- og overse fakta.
Michael Shermer - Skeptic
Michael Shermer debunks myths, superstitions and urban legends -- and explains why we believe them. Along with publishing Skeptic Magazine, he's author of Why People Believe Weird Things and The Mind of the Market. Full bio
Michael Shermer debunks myths, superstitions and urban legends -- and explains why we believe them. Along with publishing Skeptic Magazine, he's author of Why People Believe Weird Things and The Mind of the Market. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:24
I'm Michael Shermer,
director of the Skeptics Society,
director of the Skeptics Society,
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Hej, jeg er Michael Shermer, direktør for Skeptics Society,
udgiver af magasinet "Skeptic".
00:27
publisher of "Skeptic" magazine.
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Vi efterforsker overnaturlige, pseudovidenskabelige påstande
00:28
We investigate claims of the paranormal,
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og udkants grupper og kulte og påstande af alle slags i mellem --
00:30
pseudo-science, fringe groups and cults,
and claims of all kinds between,
and claims of all kinds between,
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00:34
science and pseudo-science
and non-science and junk science,
and non-science and junk science,
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videnskab og pseudovidenskab og ikke-videnskab og junk videnskab,
voodoo videnskab, patologisk videnskab, dårlig videnskab, ikke-videnskab
00:37
voodoo science, pathological science,
bad science, non-science,
bad science, non-science,
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00:40
and plain old non-sense.
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og ganske almindelig sludder.
00:42
And unless you've been on Mars recently,
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Og med mindre man har været på Mars for nylig,
00:44
you know there's a lot of that out there.
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ved man at der findes meget af det.
00:46
Some people call us debunkers,
which is kind of a negative term.
which is kind of a negative term.
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Nogle mennesker kalder os for myte-aflivere, hvilket er en negativ betegnelse.
00:49
But let's face it, there's a lot of bunk.
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Men lad os se det øjnene - der er en masse vås,
og vi er ligesom våsgrupper i politiafdelingerne, der skyller ud.
00:51
We are like the bunko squads
of the police departments out there --
of the police departments out there --
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00:55
well, we're sort of like
the Ralph Naders of bad ideas,
the Ralph Naders of bad ideas,
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Egentlig, er vi ligesom Ralph Naders dårlige ideer
00:58
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
-- og prøver at erstatte dårlige ideer med gode.
01:00
trying to replace bad ideas
with good ideas.
with good ideas.
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01:02
I'll show you an example of a bad idea.
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Jeg skal vise Jer et eksempel på en dårlig ide.
01:04
I brought this with me,
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Jeg tog dette med mig.
01:05
this was given to us
by NBC Dateline to test.
by NBC Dateline to test.
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Det blev givet til os af NBC Dateline for at teste.
01:09
It's produced by the Quadro
Corporation of West Virginia.
Corporation of West Virginia.
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Det er -- det er produceret af Quadro Corporation of West Virginia.
Den hedder Quadro 2000 Dowser Rod.
01:13
It's called the Quadro 2000 Dowser Rod.
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(Latter)
01:16
(Laughter)
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01:17
This was being sold to high-school
administrators for $900 apiece.
administrators for $900 apiece.
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Den blev solgt til high school ledere for 900 dollars per styk.
01:22
It's a piece of plastic with a Radio
Shack antenna attached to it.
Shack antenna attached to it.
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Det er et stykke plastik med en Radio Shack antenne bundet fast.
Man kunne finde alle mulige ting, men denne
01:27
You could dowse for all sorts of things,
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01:29
but this particular one was built
to dowse for marijuana
to dowse for marijuana
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er bygget til at finde marijuana i de studerendes skabe.
01:32
in students' lockers.
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01:33
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
Så måden den virker på, er at man går ned af gangen, og man ser om
01:36
So the way it works
is you go down the hallway,
is you go down the hallway,
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01:39
and you see if it tilts
toward a particular locker,
toward a particular locker,
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den tilter mod et bestemt skab, og så åbner man skabet.
01:42
and then you open the locker.
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Så det ser cirka sådan her ud.
01:44
So it looks something like this.
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Jeg viser jer det lige.
01:45
I'll show you.
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01:48
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
01:49
Well, it has kind of a right-leaning bias.
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Nej, det -- jamen, den har lidt en tendens til at læne mod højre.
Så, jeg viser jer -- jamen, det er videnskab, så vi laver et kontrolleret eksperiment,
01:53
Well, this is science,
so we'll do a controlled experiment.
so we'll do a controlled experiment.
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Den går helt sikkert til denne side.
01:56
It'll go this way for sure.
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(Latter)
01:57
(Laughter)
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02:01
Sir, do you want to empty
your pockets, please, sir?
your pockets, please, sir?
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Sir, vil du tømme dine lommer. Vær så venlig, hr.?
(Latter)
02:04
(Laughter)
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Så spørgsmålet var, kan den faktisk finde marijuana i studerendes skabe?
02:06
So the question was, can it actually
find marijuana in students' lockers?
find marijuana in students' lockers?
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Og svaret er, hvis man åbner nok af dem, ja.
02:09
And the answer is,
if you open enough of them, yes.
if you open enough of them, yes.
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(Latter)
02:12
(Laughter)
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(Bifald)
02:13
(Applause)
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02:14
But in science, we have to keep track
of the misses, not just the hits.
of the misses, not just the hits.
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Men i videnskab, er vi nød til at holde styr på de gange det kikser, ikke kun de gange går godt.
Og det er sikkert den vigtigste lære i mit korte foredrag her, er at
02:18
And that's probably the key lesson
to my short talk here:
to my short talk here:
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02:21
This is how psychics work, astrologers,
tarot card readers and so on.
tarot card readers and so on.
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dette er sådan psykoer arbejder, astrologer, og tarotkort læsere og så videre.
Mennesker husker de gange det går godt; de glemmer de gange det ikke gør.
02:25
People remember the hits
and forget the misses.
and forget the misses.
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I videnskab er vi nød til at have styr på hele databasen,
02:27
In science, we keep the whole database,
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og se om antallet af gode gange på en eller anden måde skiller sig ud
02:29
and look to see if the number
of hits somehow stands out
of hits somehow stands out
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fra det totale antal som man ville forvente ved tilfælde.
02:32
from the total number
you'd expect by chance.
you'd expect by chance.
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I dette tilfælde, testede vi den.
02:34
In this case, we tested it.
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02:35
We had two opaque boxes:
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Vi havde to uigennemsigtige kasser:
02:37
one with government-approved THC
marijuana, and one with nothing.
marijuana, and one with nothing.
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en med stats godkendte THC marijuana, og en uden noget.
Den fandt det 50 procent af gangene --
02:40
And it got it 50 percent of the time --
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02:42
(Laughter)
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hvilket egentlig er hvad man ville forvente ved møntkast modellen.
02:43
which is exactly what you'd expect
with a coin-flip model.
with a coin-flip model.
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02:46
So that's just a fun little example
here of the sorts of things we do.
here of the sorts of things we do.
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Så det er bare et sjovt lille eksempel på den slags ting vi gør.
"Skeptic" er den kvartalsvise publikation.
02:50
"Skeptic" is the quarterly publication.
Each one has a particular theme.
Each one has a particular theme.
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Hver af dem har et bestemt tema, ligesom denne handler om intelligensens fremtid.
02:54
This one is on the future of intelligence.
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Blive mennesker klogere eller dummere?
02:56
Are people getting smarter or dumber?
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Jeg har selv en mening om dette på grund af den branche jeg er i,
02:58
I have an opinion of this myself
because of the business I'm in,
because of the business I'm in,
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men, faktisk, viser det sig at mennesker bliver klogere.
03:01
but in fact, people, it turns out,
are getting smarter.
are getting smarter.
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Tre IQ point per 10 år, stigende.
03:03
Three IQ points per 10 years, going up.
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03:06
Sort of an interesting thing.
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Egentlig en interessant ting.
03:08
With science, don't think of skepticism
as a thing, or science as a thing.
as a thing, or science as a thing.
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Med videnskab, tænk ikke på skepsis som en ting eller selv en videnskabelig ting.
Er videnskab og religion forenelige?
03:12
Are science and religion compatible?
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03:13
It's like, are science
and plumbing compatible?
and plumbing compatible?
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Det er ligesom, er videnskab og blikkenslagerarbejde forenelige?
Disse -- de er bare to forskellige ting.
03:16
They're just two different things.
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03:17
Science is not a thing. It's a verb.
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Videnskab er ikke en ting. Det er et udsagnsord.
03:19
It's a way of thinking about things.
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Det er en måde til at tænke over tingene.
03:21
It's a way of looking for natural
explanations for all phenomena.
explanations for all phenomena.
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Det er en måde at lede efter naturlige forklaringer på alle fænomener.
Jeg mener, hvad er mest sandsynligt:
03:24
I mean, what's more likely:
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03:25
that extraterrestrial intelligences
or multi-dimensional beings
or multi-dimensional beings
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at udenjordiske intelligenser eller multi-dimensionelle væsner rejser gennem
03:29
travel across vast distances
of interstellar space
of interstellar space
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de enorme afstande af det intergalaktiske rum til at efterlade en korncirkel
03:31
to leave a crop circle in Farmer Bob's
field in Puckerbrush, Kansas
field in Puckerbrush, Kansas
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i landmand Bobs mark i Puckerbrush, Kansas til at markedsføre skeptic.com, vores hjemmeside?
03:34
to promote skeptic.com, our web page?
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Eller er det mere sandsynligt, at en læser af "Skeptic" har gjort dette med Photoshop?
03:36
Or is it more likely that a reader
of "Skeptic" did this with Photoshop?
of "Skeptic" did this with Photoshop?
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Og i alle tilfælde bliver vi nød til at spørge
03:41
And in all cases we have to ask --
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(Latter)
03:42
(Laughter)
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03:44
What's the more likely explanation?
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-- hvad er den mest sandsynlige forklaring?
03:46
Before we say something
is out of this world,
is out of this world,
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Og før vi siger noget ikke kommer fra denne verden,
burde vi først være sikre på at det ikke findes i denne verden.
03:48
we should first make sure
that it's not in this world.
that it's not in this world.
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Hvad er mest sandsynligt --
03:51
What's more likely:
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at Arnold fik en lille smule udenjordisk hjælp i sin kamp for guvernørposten?
03:52
that Arnold had extraterrestrial help
in his run for the governorship,
in his run for the governorship,
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Eller at "World Weekly News" finder på ting?
03:56
or that the "World Weekly News"
makes stuff up?
makes stuff up?
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03:58
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
Og en del af det -- det samme tema er udtryk pænt
04:00
The same theme is expressed nicely
here in this Sidney Harris cartoon.
here in this Sidney Harris cartoon.
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her i denne Sidney Harris vittighedstegning.
04:04
For those of you in the back,
it says here: "Then a miracle occurs.
it says here: "Then a miracle occurs.
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For de af Jer omme bagved, står der her: "Så sker der et mirakel.
04:08
I think you need to be more
explicit here in step two."
explicit here in step two."
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Jeg tror du skal være mere tydelig her i skridt to."
04:10
This single slide completely dismantles
the intelligent design arguments.
the intelligent design arguments.
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Denne ene slide demonterer fuldstændigt intelligent designs argumenter.
Der er ikke mere i det end det.
04:15
There's nothing more to it than that.
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(Bifald)
04:17
(Applause)
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Man kan sige at mirakler forekommer.
04:18
You can say a miracle occurs,
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04:19
it's just that it doesn't explain
anything or offer anything.
anything or offer anything.
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Der er bare det ved det, at det ikke forklarer noget.
Det tilbyder ikke noget. Der er ikke noget at teste.
04:22
There's nothing to test.
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Det er slutningen på samtalen for intelligent designs skabere.
04:23
It's the end of the conversation
for intelligent design creationists.
for intelligent design creationists.
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Hvorimod -- og det er sandt, videnskabsmænd nogen gange kommer med udtryk som
04:27
And it's true, scientists sometimes throw
terms out as linguistic place fillers --
terms out as linguistic place fillers --
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lingvistisk fyld -- mørk energi eller mørk materie eller noget i den retning --
04:32
dark energy or dark matter,
something like that --
something like that --
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indtil vi finder ud af hvad det er, kalder vi det bare det --
04:34
until we figure out what it is,
we'll call it this.
we'll call it this.
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det er begyndelsen på den tilfælde rækkefølge for videnskaben.
04:37
It's the beginning of the causal
chain for science.
chain for science.
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For intelligent designs skabere, er det slutningen på kæden.
04:39
For intelligent design creationists,
it's the end of the chain.
it's the end of the chain.
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Så igen, kan vi spørge os selv: hvad er mest sandsynligt?
04:43
So again, we can ask this:
what's more likely?
what's more likely?
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Er UFOer fremmedartede rumskibe eller kognitivt forkerte opfattelser -- eller endda falske?
04:46
Are UFOs alien spaceships, or perceptual
cognitive mistakes, or even fakes?
cognitive mistakes, or even fakes?
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04:50
This is a UFO shot from my house
in Altadena, California,
in Altadena, California,
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Denne UFO er filmet fra mit hus i Altadena, California,
04:53
looking down over Pasadena.
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når man ser ned over Pasadena.
04:55
And if it looks a lot like a Buick
hubcap, it's because it is.
hubcap, it's because it is.
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Og hvis det ligner hjulkapsel til en Buick meget, er det fordi at det er det.
04:59
You don't even need Photoshop
or high-tech equipment,
or high-tech equipment,
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Man har ikke engang brug for Photoshop; man har ikke brug for højteknologisk udstyr;
man har ikke brug for computere.
05:02
you don't need computers.
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05:03
This was shot with a throwaway
Kodak Instamatic camera.
Kodak Instamatic camera.
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Dette billede blev taget med et engangs Kodak Instamatic kamera.
05:06
You just have somebody off on the side
with a hubcap ready to go.
with a hubcap ready to go.
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Man skal bare have nogen stående klar ude i siden, med hjulkapslen fra en Buick.
Kameraet er klar -- det er det.
05:09
Camera's ready -- that's it.
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(Latter)
05:11
(Laughter)
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Så, selvom det er muligt at de fleste af disse ting er falske
05:13
So, although it's possible
that most of these things are fake
that most of these things are fake
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05:16
or illusions or so on,
and that some of them are real,
and that some of them are real,
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eller illusioner og så videre og at nogle af dem er rigtige,
det er mere sandsynligt at de alle er falske, ligesom korncirklerne.
05:20
it's more likely that all of them
are fake, like the crop circles.
are fake, like the crop circles.
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Lidt mere alvorligt, så leder vi al videnskab efter en balance
05:23
On a more serious note, in all of science
we're looking for a balance
we're looking for a balance
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mellem data og teori.
05:27
between data and theory.
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05:28
In the case of Galileo,
he had two problems
he had two problems
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I Galileos tilfælde, havde han to problemer,
05:32
when he turned his telescope to Saturn.
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da han vendte sit teleskop mod Saturn.
For det første, var der ikke nogen teori om planetariske ringe.
05:35
First of all, there was no
theory of planetary rings.
theory of planetary rings.
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For det andet, var hans data kornet og sløret,
05:38
Second of all, his data
was grainy and fuzzy,
was grainy and fuzzy,
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og han kunne ikke helt se hvad det var han kiggede på.
05:40
and he couldn't quite make out
what he was looking at.
what he was looking at.
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Så han skrev hvad han havde set --
05:43
So he wrote that he had seen --
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05:44
"I have observed that the furthest
planet has three bodies."
planet has three bodies."
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"Jeg har observeret at den planet der er længst væk har tre legemer."
Og dette er hvad han endte med at konkludere at han havde set.
05:48
And this is what he ended up
concluding that he saw.
concluding that he saw.
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Så uden en teori om planetariske ringe og kun ved hjælp af kornet data,
05:51
So without a theory of planetary
rings and with only grainy data,
rings and with only grainy data,
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05:54
you can't have a good theory.
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kan man ikke have en god teori.
05:56
It wasn't solved until 1655.
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Og det blev ikke læst før 1655.
05:58
This is Christiaan Huygens's book
that catalogs all the mistakes
that catalogs all the mistakes
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Dette er Christiaan Huygens bog, hvori han katalogiserede alle de fejltagelser
06:01
people made trying to figure out
what was going on with Saturn.
what was going on with Saturn.
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som mennesker have lavet i forsøget på at finde ud af hvad der skete med Saturn.
Det var ikke indtil -- Huygens havde to ting.
06:04
It wasn't till Huygens had two things:
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Han havde en god teori om planetariske ringe og hvordan solsystemet virkede.
06:06
He had a good theory of planetary rings
and how the solar system operated,
and how the solar system operated,
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06:10
and he had better telescopic,
more fine-grain data
more fine-grain data
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Og så havde han teleskopisk bedre, mere fin-kornede data
06:13
in which he could figure out that
as the Earth is going around faster --
as the Earth is going around faster --
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hvori han kunne regne ud at i takt med at Jorden bevæger sig hurtigere --
ifølge Keplers Lov -- end Saturn, så indhenter vi den.
06:17
according to Kepler's Laws --
than Saturn, then we catch up with it.
than Saturn, then we catch up with it.
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Og vi ser ringenes aspekter fra forskellige vinkler, der.
06:20
And we see the angles of the rings
at different angles, there.
at different angles, there.
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06:23
And that, in fact, turns out to be true.
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Og det viser sig, faktisk, at være sandt.
Problemerne med at have en teori
06:26
The problem with having a theory is that
it may be loaded with cognitive biases.
it may be loaded with cognitive biases.
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er at ens teori kan være fyldt med kognitive skævheder.
Så et af problemerne ved at forklare hvorfor mennesker tror på mærkelige ting
06:31
So one of the problems of explaining
why people believe weird things
why people believe weird things
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er at vi har tingene på et simpelt niveau.
06:34
is that we have things, on a simple level,
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Og så går jeg over til de mere alvorlige.
06:36
and then I'll go to more serious ones.
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Ligesom, det at vi har en tendens til at se ansigter.
06:38
Like, we have a tendency to see faces.
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Dette er ansigtet på Mars, der var --
06:40
This is the face on Mars.
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i 1976, da der var en hel bevægelse til at få NASA
06:42
In 1976, where there was a whole movement
to get NASA to photograph that area
to get NASA to photograph that area
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til at fotografere det område, fordi mennesker troede
06:46
because people thought this was monumental
architecture made by Martians.
architecture made by Martians.
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at dette var monumental arkitektur lavet af marsmændene.
Jamen, det viser sig -- her er et close-up af det fra 2001.
06:50
Here's the close-up of it from 2001.
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06:53
If you squint, you can still see the face.
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Hvis man kniber øjnene sammen, kan man stadig se ansigtet.
Og det man gør når man kniber øjnene sammen er,
06:56
And when you're squinting,
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06:57
you're turning that from fine-grain
to coarse-grain,
to coarse-grain,
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at man går fra det finkornede til det grovkornede.
Og derfor, reducerer man kvaliteten af ens data.
07:00
so you're reducing
the quality of your data.
the quality of your data.
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Og hvis jeg ikke fortalte Jer hvad I skulle kigge efter, ville I stadig se ansigtet,
07:02
And if I didn't tell you what to look for,
you'd still see the face,
you'd still see the face,
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fordi vi er programmeret af evolutionen til at se ansigter.
07:05
because we're programmed
by evolution to see faces.
by evolution to see faces.
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Ansigter er socialt vigtige for os.
07:08
Faces are important for us socially.
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Og, selvfølgelig, glade ansigter.
07:10
And of course, happy faces,
faces of all kinds are easy to see.
faces of all kinds are easy to see.
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Alle slags ansigter er nemme at se.
(Latter)
07:14
You see the happy face on Mars, there.
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Man kan se et glad ansigt på Mars, der.
07:16
(Laughter)
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Hvis astronauter var frøer, ville de måske se frøen Kermit.
07:17
If astronomers were frogs,
perhaps they'd see Kermit the Frog.
perhaps they'd see Kermit the Frog.
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Kan I se dem der?
07:20
Do you see him there? Little froggy legs.
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Små frølår.
07:22
Or if geologists were elephants?
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Eller hvis geologer var elefanter?
07:25
Religious iconography.
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Religiøs ikonografi.
07:28
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
Opdaget af en bager i Tennessee i 1996.
07:31
Discovered by a Tennessee baker in 1996.
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07:33
He charged five bucks a head
to come see the nun bun
to come see the nun bun
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Han tog fem dollars per hoved for at man kunne se nonne bollen
indtil han fik en retslig henstilling fra Moder Teresas advokat om at stoppe.
07:36
till he got a cease-and-desist
from Mother Teresa's lawyer.
from Mother Teresa's lawyer.
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Her er Our Lady fra Guadalupe og Our Lady i Watsonville, lige nede af gaden,
07:40
Here's Our Lady of Guadalupe and Our
Lady of Watsonville, just down the street,
Lady of Watsonville, just down the street,
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07:43
or is it up the street from here?
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eller er det oppe af gaden herfra?
07:45
Tree bark is particularly good
because it's nice and grainy, branchy,
because it's nice and grainy, branchy,
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Bark fra træer er specielt godt fordi det er dejlig kornet,
07:48
black-and-white splotchy and you can
get the pattern-seeking --
get the pattern-seeking --
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sorte og hvide plamager og man kan få de mønstersøgende --
mennesker er mønstersøgende dyr.
07:51
humans are pattern-seeking animals.
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07:53
Here's the Virgin Mary on the side
of a glass window in Sao Paulo.
of a glass window in Sao Paulo.
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Her er Jomfru Maria på et glasvindue i Sao Paulo.
Nuvel, det er her Jomfru Maria der fik hendes første fremtræden på en oste sandwich --
07:57
Here's when the Virgin Mary made
her appearance on a cheese sandwich --
her appearance on a cheese sandwich --
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som jeg faktisk holdte i et kasino i Las Vegas,
08:00
which I got to actually
hold in a Las Vegas casino --
hold in a Las Vegas casino --
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selvfølgelig, dette er jo USA.
08:03
of course, this being America.
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(Latter)
08:04
(Laughter)
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08:06
This casino paid $28,500
on eBay for the cheese sandwich.
on eBay for the cheese sandwich.
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Dette kasino betalte 28.500 dollars på eBay for oste sandwichen.
08:10
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
08:12
But who does it really look like?
The Virgin Mary?
The Virgin Mary?
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Men hvem ligner det egentlig, Jomfru Maria?
(Latter)
08:15
(Laughter)
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Den har det foldede læbe, 1940-agtige look.
08:17
It has that sort of
puckered lips, 1940s-era look.
puckered lips, 1940s-era look.
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Jomfru Maria i Clearwater, Florida.
08:21
Virgin Mary in Clearwater, Florida.
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08:22
I actually went to see this one.
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Jeg så faktisk denne.
08:24
There was a lot of people there.
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Der var mange mennesker der -- de troende kommer der --
08:26
The faithful come in their wheelchairs
and crutches, and so on.
and crutches, and so on.
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kørestole og krykker og så videre.
Og vi tog derned, undersøgte.
08:31
We went down and investigated.
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Bare for at give jer en størrelse -- det er Dawkins, mig og The Amazing Randi,
08:33
Just to give you a size, that's Dawkins,
me and The Amazing Randi,
me and The Amazing Randi,
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ved siden af denne to, to og en halv etages billede.
08:36
next to this two,
two and a half story-sized image.
two and a half story-sized image.
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Alle disse stearinlys, så mange tusinde stearinlys som mennesker havde tændt som hyldest til dette.
08:38
All these candles, thousands of candles
people had lit in tribute to this.
people had lit in tribute to this.
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Så vi gik om bagved, bare for at se hvad der skete der,
08:42
So we walked around the backside,
to see what was going on.
to see what was going on.
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hvor -- det viste sig, at hvor end der er et sprinkler hoved og et palmetræ,
08:45
It turns out wherever there's
a sprinkler head and a palm tree,
a sprinkler head and a palm tree,
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får man den effekt.
08:48
you get the effect.
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08:49
Here's the Virgin Mary on the backside,
which they started to wipe off.
which they started to wipe off.
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Her er Jomfru Maria på bagsiden, som de begyndte at tørre af.
Jeg tror man kun kan have et mirakel per bygning.
08:53
I guess you can only have
one miracle per building.
one miracle per building.
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08:55
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
Så det er virkelig et mirakel af Mary, eller er det et mirakel af Marge?
08:59
So is it really a miracle of Mary,
or is it a miracle of Marge?
or is it a miracle of Marge?
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(Latter)
09:02
(Laughter)
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Og så vil jeg slutte af med endnu et eksempel på dette
09:03
And now I'm going to finish up
with another example of this,
with another example of this,
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med lyd -- auditive illusioner.
09:07
with auditory illusions.
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Der er denne film, "White Noise",
09:10
There's this film, "White Noise,"
with Michael Keaton,
with Michael Keaton,
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med Michael Keaton der handler om de døde der taler til os.
09:12
about the dead talking back to us.
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Forresten, alt det her med at tale til de døde, det er ikke nogen stor ting.
09:15
By the way, the whole business of talking
to the dead is not that big a deal.
to the dead is not that big a deal.
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Alle kan gøre det, viser det sig.
09:19
Anybody can do it, turns out.
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Det er det at få de døde til at svare der er virkelig svært.
09:20
It's getting the dead to talk
back that's the really hard part.
back that's the really hard part.
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(Latter)
09:23
(Laughter)
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I dette tilfælde, efter sigende, er disse budskaber gemt i elektroniske fænomen.
09:24
In this case, supposedly, these messages
are hidden in electronic phenomena.
are hidden in electronic phenomena.
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09:28
There's a ReverseSpeech.com web page
where I downloaded this stuff.
where I downloaded this stuff.
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Der er en ReverseSpeech.com hjemmeside som jeg har downloaded disse ting fra.
Her er det forlæns -- dette er den mest berømte af dem alle sammen.
09:31
This is the most famous one
of all of these.
of all of these.
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Her er den forlæns version af den meget berømte sang. (Musik)
09:35
Here's the forward version
of the very famous song.
of the very famous song.
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09:37
(Music with lyrics)
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09:39
If there's a bustle in your hedgerow
don't be alarmed now.
don't be alarmed now.
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09:44
It's just a spring clean
for the May Queen.
for the May Queen.
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09:50
Yes, there are two paths you
can go by, but in the long run,
can go by, but in the long run,
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09:56
There's still time to change
the road you're on
the road you're on
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Manner, kunne I ikke bare lytte til det hele dagen?
10:03
Couldn't you just listen to that all day?
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(Latter)
Okay, her er det baglæns,
10:06
All right, here it is backwards,
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10:07
and see if you can hear the hidden
messages that are supposedly in there.
messages that are supposedly in there.
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og se om I kan høre det skjulte budskab der efter sigende er deri. (Musik)
10:12
(Music with unintelligible lyrics)
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10:26
(Lyrics) Satan!
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10:27
(Unintelligible lyrics continue)
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Hvad fik I?
10:41
What did you get?
Audience: Satan!
Audience: Satan!
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Publikum: "Satan"
10:43
Satan. OK, at least we got "Satan".
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Michael Shermer: "Satan?" Ok, jamen, vi fik i det mindste "Satan".
10:45
Now, I'll prime the auditory
part of your brain
part of your brain
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Nuvel, jeg vil påvirke den auditive del i Jeres hjerne
10:47
to tell you what you're supposed
to hear, and then hear it again.
to hear, and then hear it again.
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for at fortælle Jer hvad I burde høre, og hør det så igen. (Musik)
10:50
(Music with lyrics)
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11:17
(Music ends)
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(Latter)
11:18
(Laughter)
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(Bifald)
11:19
(Applause)
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Man kan ikke gå glip af det, når jeg fortæller hvad der er der.
11:26
You can't miss it
when I tell you what's there.
when I tell you what's there.
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11:28
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
Okay, nu vil jeg lige afslutte med en positiv, sød, lille historie
11:32
I'm going to just end
with a positive, nice little story.
with a positive, nice little story.
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om -- Skeptics er en nonprofit oplysende organisation.
11:36
The Skeptics is a nonprofit
educational organization.
educational organization.
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Vi søger altid efter små, gode ting mennesker gør.
11:39
We're always looking for little
good things that people do.
good things that people do.
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Og i England, er der en popsanger.
11:41
And in England, there's a pop singer.
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2009
Meget -- en af de mest populære sangere i England i dag, Katie Melua.
11:43
One of the top popular singers
in England today, Katie Melua.
in England today, Katie Melua.
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Og hun skrev en smuk sang.
11:47
And she wrote a beautiful song.
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Den var i top fem i 2005, og hed, "Nine Million Bicycles in Beijing".
11:49
It was in the top five in 2005, called,
"Nine Million Bicycles in Beijing."
"Nine Million Bicycles in Beijing."
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11:54
It's a love story -- she's sort
of the Norah Jones of the UK --
of the Norah Jones of the UK --
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Det er en kærlighedshistorie -- hun er en slags Norah Jones i England --
om hvor meget hun elsker sin fyr,
11:57
about how she much loves her guy,
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11:59
and compared to nine million
bicycles, and so forth.
bicycles, and so forth.
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og sammenlignet med ni millioner cykler og så videre.
Og hun har denne lille passage her.
12:02
And she has this one passage here.
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12:04
(Music)
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♫ Vi er 12 milliarder lysår fra kanten ♫
12:05
(Lyrics) We are 12 billion
light-years from the edge
light-years from the edge
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♫ Det er et gæt ♫
12:11
That's a guess,
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♫ Ingen kan nogensinde sige at det er sandt ♫
12:13
No one can ever say it's true,
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♫ Men jeg ved, at jeg altid vil være sammen med dig ♫
12:17
But I know that I will always be with you.
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Jamen, det er sødt.
12:22
Michael Shermer: Well, that's nice.
At least she got it close.
At least she got it close.
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Hun kommer i hvert fald tæt på.
I Amerika ville det være, "Vi er 6.000 lysår fra kanten."
12:25
In America it'd be,
"We're 6,000 light years from the edge."
"We're 6,000 light years from the edge."
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(Latter)
12:28
(Laughter)
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Men min ven, Simon Singh, partikel fysikeren der nu underviser i videnskab,
12:29
But my friend, Simon Singh, the particle
physicist now turned science educator,
physicist now turned science educator,
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og han skrev en bog, "The Big Bang" og så videre.
12:33
who wrote the book
"The Big Bang," and so on,
"The Big Bang," and so on,
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Han bruger hver en chance han får, til at promovere god videnskab.
12:35
uses every chance he gets
to promote good science.
to promote good science.
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Så han skrev en kronik i "The Guardian" om Katies sang,
12:37
And so he wrote an op-ed piece
in "The Guardian" about Katie's song,
in "The Guardian" about Katie's song,
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hvor han sagde, jamen, vi ved præcis hvor gammel, hvor langt fra kanten.
12:41
in which he said, well, we know exactly
how far from the edge.
how far from the edge.
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I ved, det er 12 -- det er 13.7 milliarder lysår, og det er ikke et gæt.
12:46
You know, it's 13.7 billion light years,
and it's not a guess.
and it's not a guess.
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Vi ved indenfor præcise tolerancer hvor tæt det er.
12:50
We know within precise
error bars how close it is.
error bars how close it is.
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Så, vi kan sige, selvom det ikke er absolut sandt, at det er meget tæt på at være sandt.
12:54
So we can say, although not absolutely
true, it's pretty close to being true.
true, it's pretty close to being true.
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Så, til hans ære, ringede Katie til ham efter hans kronik kom ud.
12:58
And, to his credit, Katie called him up
after this op-ed piece came out, and said,
after this op-ed piece came out, and said,
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Og sagde, "Jeg er så flov.
13:02
"I'm so embarrassed.
I was in the astronomy club.
I was in the astronomy club.
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Jeg var et medlem af astronomiklubben, og jeg burde have vidst bedre."
13:05
I should've known better."
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Så hun omskrev sangen.
13:06
And she re-cut the song.
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Så jeg vil slutte med den nye version.
13:07
So I will end with the new version.
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♫ Vi er 13.7 milliarder lysår ♫
13:09
(Music with lyrics)
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13:11
We are 13.7 billion light years
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♫ fra kanten af det observerbare univers ♫
13:13
from the edge of the observable universe.
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♫ Det er et godt estimat indenfor vel-definerede tolerancer ♫
13:17
That's a good estimate
with well-defined error bars.
with well-defined error bars.
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♫ Og med den tilgængelige information ♫
13:20
And with the available information,
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♫ Forudser jeg at jeg altid vil være sammen med dig ♫
13:24
I predict that I will always be with you.
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(Bifald)
13:28
(Laughter)
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Hvor fedt er det?
13:29
How cool is that?
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(Bifald)
13:30
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michael Shermer - SkepticMichael Shermer debunks myths, superstitions and urban legends -- and explains why we believe them. Along with publishing Skeptic Magazine, he's author of Why People Believe Weird Things and The Mind of the Market.
Why you should listen
As founder and publisher of Skeptic Magazine, Michael Shermer has exposed fallacies behind intelligent design, 9/11 conspiracies, the low-carb craze, alien sightings and other popular beliefs and paranoias. But it's not about debunking for debunking's sake. Shermer defends the notion that we can understand our world better only by matching good theory with good science.
Shermer's work offers cognitive context for our often misguided beliefs: In the absence of sound science, incomplete information can powerfully combine with the power of suggestion (helping us hear Satanic lyrics when "Stairway to Heaven" plays backwards, for example). In fact, a common thread that runs through beliefs of all sorts, he says, is our tendency to convince ourselves: We overvalue the shreds of evidence that support our preferred outcome, and ignore the facts we aren't looking for.
He writes a monthly column for Scientific American, and is an adjunct at Claremont Graduate University and Chapman University. His latest book is The Believing Brain: From Ghosts and Gods to Politics and Conspiracies—How We Construct Beliefs and Reinforce Them as Truths. He is also the author of The Mind of the Market, on evolutionary economics, Why Darwin Matters: Evolution and the Case Against Intelligent Design, and The Science of Good and Evil. And his next book is titled The Moral Arc of Science.
Michael Shermer | Speaker | TED.com