TED2006
Michael Shermer: Why people believe weird things
Majkl Šermer o verovanju u čudne stvari
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Zašto ljudi vide Devicu Mariju na sendviču od sira ili čuju đavolje reči pesme "Strairway to Heaven?" Koristeći video i muziku, skeptični Majkl Šermer pokazuje kako ubeđujemo sebe da verujemo i pregleđuje činjenice.
Michael Shermer - Skeptic
Michael Shermer debunks myths, superstitions and urban legends -- and explains why we believe them. Along with publishing Skeptic Magazine, he's author of Why People Believe Weird Things and The Mind of the Market. Full bio
Michael Shermer debunks myths, superstitions and urban legends -- and explains why we believe them. Along with publishing Skeptic Magazine, he's author of Why People Believe Weird Things and The Mind of the Market. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:24
I'm Michael Shermer,
director of the Skeptics Society,
director of the Skeptics Society,
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Zdravo, ja sam Majkl Šermer, direktor Društva Skeptičnih,
izdavač časopisa Skeptik.
00:27
publisher of "Skeptic" magazine.
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Istražujemo tvrdnje paranormalne, kvazi-nauke,
00:28
We investigate claims of the paranormal,
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i nakićene grupe i kultove i tvrdnje svih stvari između--
00:30
pseudo-science, fringe groups and cults,
and claims of all kinds between,
and claims of all kinds between,
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00:34
science and pseudo-science
and non-science and junk science,
and non-science and junk science,
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nauke i kvazi-nauke i ne-nauke i otpad od nauke,
vudu nauke, patološke nauke, loše nauke, ne-nauke
00:37
voodoo science, pathological science,
bad science, non-science,
bad science, non-science,
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00:40
and plain old non-sense.
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i dobre stare besmislenosti.
00:42
And unless you've been on Mars recently,
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I osim ako ste skoro bili na Marsu,
00:44
you know there's a lot of that out there.
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znate da toga ima dosta.
00:46
Some people call us debunkers,
which is kind of a negative term.
which is kind of a negative term.
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Neki misle da pobijamo teorije, što je kao negativan izraz.
00:49
But let's face it, there's a lot of bunk.
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Ali pogledajmo--postoje puno koještarija,
i mi smo tamo kao tim za koještarije policijske uprave, koji čiste.
00:51
We are like the bunko squads
of the police departments out there --
of the police departments out there --
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00:55
well, we're sort of like
the Ralph Naders of bad ideas,
the Ralph Naders of bad ideas,
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Pa, mi smo kao Ralf Neders loših ideja--
00:58
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
--koji pokušavaju da zamene loše ideje sa dobrim idejama.
01:00
trying to replace bad ideas
with good ideas.
with good ideas.
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01:02
I'll show you an example of a bad idea.
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Pokazaću vam primer jedne loše ideje.
01:04
I brought this with me,
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Poneo sam ovo sa mnom.
01:05
this was given to us
by NBC Dateline to test.
by NBC Dateline to test.
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Ovo nam je dala emisija NBC Dejtlajn da testiramo.
01:09
It's produced by the Quadro
Corporation of West Virginia.
Corporation of West Virginia.
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To je-- to je proizvela Kvadro Korporacija iz Zapadne Virdzinije.
Zove se Kvadro 2000 Dauzer Rod.
01:13
It's called the Quadro 2000 Dowser Rod.
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(Smeh)
01:16
(Laughter)
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01:17
This was being sold to high-school
administrators for $900 apiece.
administrators for $900 apiece.
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Ovo se prodavalo upravnicima srednjih škola za 900 dolara po komadu.
01:22
It's a piece of plastic with a Radio
Shack antenna attached to it.
Shack antenna attached to it.
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To je parče plastike sa klasničnom antenom koja je prikačena za njega.
Možete da detektujete sve moguće stvari, ali baš ovaj
01:27
You could dowse for all sorts of things,
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01:29
but this particular one was built
to dowse for marijuana
to dowse for marijuana
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je napravljen da detektuje marihuanu u ormarićima učenika.
01:32
in students' lockers.
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01:33
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
Znači ovako radi, idete kroz hodnik i vidite ako
01:36
So the way it works
is you go down the hallway,
is you go down the hallway,
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01:39
and you see if it tilts
toward a particular locker,
toward a particular locker,
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skreće u pravcu nekog ormarića, i onda otvorite ormarić.
01:42
and then you open the locker.
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Izgleda ovako.
01:44
So it looks something like this.
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Pokazaću vam.
01:45
I'll show you.
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01:48
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
01:49
Well, it has kind of a right-leaning bias.
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Ne,to--pa, skreće malo desno.
Pokazaću vam--dakle, ovo je nauka, uradićemo kontrolisani eksperiment.
01:53
Well, this is science,
so we'll do a controlled experiment.
so we'll do a controlled experiment.
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Sigurno će ići u ovom pravcu.
01:56
It'll go this way for sure.
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(Smeh)
01:57
(Laughter)
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02:01
Sir, do you want to empty
your pockets, please, sir?
your pockets, please, sir?
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Gospodine, hoćete da ispraznite vaše džepove. Molim vas, gospodine?
(Smeh)
02:04
(Laughter)
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Znači pitanje je bilo, može li stvarno da nađe maruhuanu u učeničkim ormarićima?
02:06
So the question was, can it actually
find marijuana in students' lockers?
find marijuana in students' lockers?
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I odgovor je, Ako dovoljno njih otvorite onda da.
02:09
And the answer is,
if you open enough of them, yes.
if you open enough of them, yes.
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(Smeh)
02:12
(Laughter)
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(Aplauz)
02:13
(Applause)
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02:14
But in science, we have to keep track
of the misses, not just the hits.
of the misses, not just the hits.
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Ali u nauci, moramo da pratimo promašaje, ne samo pogotke.
I to je verovatno ključna lekcija u ovom mom kratkom govoru, je da
02:18
And that's probably the key lesson
to my short talk here:
to my short talk here:
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02:21
This is how psychics work, astrologers,
tarot card readers and so on.
tarot card readers and so on.
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ovako rade vidovnjaci, astrolozi, i oni koji gledaju u tarot karte, i tako dalje.
Ljudi pamte pogotke;oni zaboravljaju promašaje.
02:25
People remember the hits
and forget the misses.
and forget the misses.
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U nauci moramo da čuvamo celu bazu podataka,
02:27
In science, we keep the whole database,
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i da vidimo ako se broj pogotka nekako izdvaja
02:29
and look to see if the number
of hits somehow stands out
of hits somehow stands out
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od ukupnog broja koji biste slučajno očekivali.
02:32
from the total number
you'd expect by chance.
you'd expect by chance.
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U ovom slučaju smo testirali.
02:34
In this case, we tested it.
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02:35
We had two opaque boxes:
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Imali smo dve neprozirne kutije,
02:37
one with government-approved THC
marijuana, and one with nothing.
marijuana, and one with nothing.
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jednu sa THC marihuanom odobrenom od strane vlasti,i jednu praznu.
I pogodio sam u 50 posto slučajeva--
02:40
And it got it 50 percent of the time --
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02:42
(Laughter)
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--što biste isto očekivali sa modelom bacanja novčića.
02:43
which is exactly what you'd expect
with a coin-flip model.
with a coin-flip model.
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02:46
So that's just a fun little example
here of the sorts of things we do.
here of the sorts of things we do.
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Dakle to je samo mali zanimljiv primer onog čime se mi bavimo.
Skeptik izlazi na svaka 3 meseca.
02:50
"Skeptic" is the quarterly publication.
Each one has a particular theme.
Each one has a particular theme.
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Svaki od njih ima određenu temu,kao ovaj koji je o budućnosti inteligencije.
02:54
This one is on the future of intelligence.
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Da li ljudi postaju pametniji ili gluplji?
02:56
Are people getting smarter or dumber?
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I ja sam imam mišljenje o ovome zbog posla kojim se bavim.
02:58
I have an opinion of this myself
because of the business I'm in,
because of the business I'm in,
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Ali,u principu,ljudi,ispada,postaju pametniji.
03:01
but in fact, people, it turns out,
are getting smarter.
are getting smarter.
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3 IQ poena za 10 godina,raste.
03:03
Three IQ points per 10 years, going up.
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03:06
Sort of an interesting thing.
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Zanimljiva stvar.
03:08
With science, don't think of skepticism
as a thing, or science as a thing.
as a thing, or science as a thing.
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Sa naukom,ne zamišljajte skepticizam kao stvar čak ni nauku kao stvar.
Da li su nauka i religija kompatibilne?
03:12
Are science and religion compatible?
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03:13
It's like, are science
and plumbing compatible?
and plumbing compatible?
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To je kao,da li su nauka i vodoinstalicija kompatibilne?
Ovo--ovo su samo dve različite stvari.
03:16
They're just two different things.
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03:17
Science is not a thing. It's a verb.
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Nauka nije stvar.To je glagol.
03:19
It's a way of thinking about things.
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To način razmišljanja o stvarima.
03:21
It's a way of looking for natural
explanations for all phenomena.
explanations for all phenomena.
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To je način traženja prirodnih objašnjenja za sve fenomene.
Mislim,šta je verovatnije--
03:24
I mean, what's more likely:
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03:25
that extraterrestrial intelligences
or multi-dimensional beings
or multi-dimensional beings
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da vanzemaljci ili višedimenzionalna stvorenja putuju preko
03:29
travel across vast distances
of interstellar space
of interstellar space
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ogromnih daljina međuzvezdanog svemira da ostave krug u žitu
03:31
to leave a crop circle in Farmer Bob's
field in Puckerbrush, Kansas
field in Puckerbrush, Kansas
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u polju Farmera Boba u Pukerbušu,Kanzasu da promoviše skeptic.com,našu web stranicu?
03:34
to promote skeptic.com, our web page?
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Ili je verovatnije da je neki čitalac Skeptika uradio ovo Photoshop-om?
03:36
Or is it more likely that a reader
of "Skeptic" did this with Photoshop?
of "Skeptic" did this with Photoshop?
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I u svim slučajevima moram da pitam--
03:41
And in all cases we have to ask --
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(Smeh)
03:42
(Laughter)
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03:44
What's the more likely explanation?
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--koje je verovatnije objašnjenje?
03:46
Before we say something
is out of this world,
is out of this world,
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I pre nego što kažemo da nešto potiče van ovog sveta,
trebalo bi prvo da budemo sigurni da nije na ovom svetu.
03:48
we should first make sure
that it's not in this world.
that it's not in this world.
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Šta je verovatnije--
03:51
What's more likely:
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da je Arnold imao malu pomoć vanzemaljaca u izboru za guvernera?
03:52
that Arnold had extraterrestrial help
in his run for the governorship,
in his run for the governorship,
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Ili da World Weekly News (nedeljna novina) izmišlja stvari?
03:56
or that the "World Weekly News"
makes stuff up?
makes stuff up?
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03:58
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
I deo toga--ista tema je izražena lepo
04:00
The same theme is expressed nicely
here in this Sidney Harris cartoon.
here in this Sidney Harris cartoon.
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ovde u ovom stripu Sidneja Harisa.
04:04
For those of you in the back,
it says here: "Then a miracle occurs.
it says here: "Then a miracle occurs.
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Za vas nazad,ovde piše 'A onda se dogodi čudo.
04:08
I think you need to be more
explicit here in step two."
explicit here in step two."
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Milsim da moraš da budeš određeniji u drugom koraku.'
04:10
This single slide completely dismantles
the intelligent design arguments.
the intelligent design arguments.
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Ovaj slajd totalno razbija argumente inteligentnog dizajna.
Nema ništa više od toga.
04:15
There's nothing more to it than that.
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(Aplauz)
04:17
(Applause)
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Možete da kažete da se događa čudo.
04:18
You can say a miracle occurs,
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04:19
it's just that it doesn't explain
anything or offer anything.
anything or offer anything.
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Samo to ne objašnjava ništa.
Ne nudi ništa.Ne postoji ništa da se testira.
04:22
There's nothing to test.
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Ovo je kraj razgovora za one koji stvaraju inteligentni dizajn.
04:23
It's the end of the conversation
for intelligent design creationists.
for intelligent design creationists.
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Gde se--i tačno je, naučnici razbacuju ponekad terminima da
04:27
And it's true, scientists sometimes throw
terms out as linguistic place fillers --
terms out as linguistic place fillers --
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popune mesta u rečenici--tamna energija ili tamna materija ili tako nešto.
04:32
dark energy or dark matter,
something like that --
something like that --
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Dok ne shvatimo šta je to,samo ćemo ga zvati tako.
04:34
until we figure out what it is,
we'll call it this.
we'll call it this.
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Ovo je početak uzročnog lanca za nauku.
04:37
It's the beginning of the causal
chain for science.
chain for science.
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Za one koji stvaraju inteligentni dizajn,ovo je kraj lanca.
04:39
For intelligent design creationists,
it's the end of the chain.
it's the end of the chain.
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I opet,možemo da pitamo ovo--šta je verovatnije--
04:43
So again, we can ask this:
what's more likely?
what's more likely?
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da li su NLO-i vanzemaljski svemirski brodovi ili perceptivno-kognitivne greške,ili lažnjaci?
04:46
Are UFOs alien spaceships, or perceptual
cognitive mistakes, or even fakes?
cognitive mistakes, or even fakes?
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04:50
This is a UFO shot from my house
in Altadena, California,
in Altadena, California,
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Ovo je NLO snimak iz moje kuće u Atladeni,Kalifornija,
04:53
looking down over Pasadena.
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nadgledajući Pasadenu.
04:55
And if it looks a lot like a Buick
hubcap, it's because it is.
hubcap, it's because it is.
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I ako dosta izgleda kao felna Bjuika,to je zato što to i jeste.
04:59
You don't even need Photoshop
or high-tech equipment,
or high-tech equipment,
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Ne treba vam ni Photoshop,ne treba vam oprema visoke tehnologije,
ne trebaju vam kompjuteri.
05:02
you don't need computers.
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05:03
This was shot with a throwaway
Kodak Instamatic camera.
Kodak Instamatic camera.
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Ovo je snimak sa Kodak Instamatik kamerom za jednokratnu upotrebu.
05:06
You just have somebody off on the side
with a hubcap ready to go.
with a hubcap ready to go.
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Jednostavno imate nekog sa strane sa felnom spreman da krene.
Kamera spremna--to je to.
05:09
Camera's ready -- that's it.
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(Smeh)
05:11
(Laughter)
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Ali,iako je moguće da su većine ovih stvari lažne
05:13
So, although it's possible
that most of these things are fake
that most of these things are fake
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05:16
or illusions or so on,
and that some of them are real,
and that some of them are real,
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ili iluzije i tako dalje i da su neki pravi,
verovatnije je da su svi lažni,kao krugovi u polju.
05:20
it's more likely that all of them
are fake, like the crop circles.
are fake, like the crop circles.
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Ako budemo ozblijniji,u celoj nauci tražimo ravnotežu
05:23
On a more serious note, in all of science
we're looking for a balance
we're looking for a balance
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između podataka i teorije.
05:27
between data and theory.
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05:28
In the case of Galileo,
he had two problems
he had two problems
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U Galilejevom slučaju,on je imao 2 problema
05:32
when he turned his telescope to Saturn.
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kada je okrenuo svoj teleskop prema Saturnu.
Prvo,nije postojala teorija o planetarnim prstenovima.
05:35
First of all, there was no
theory of planetary rings.
theory of planetary rings.
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I drugo,njegovi podaci su bili razbacani i izmešani,
05:38
Second of all, his data
was grainy and fuzzy,
was grainy and fuzzy,
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i nije baš mogao shvati šta je tačno gledao.
05:40
and he couldn't quite make out
what he was looking at.
what he was looking at.
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I onda je on napisao da je video--
05:43
So he wrote that he had seen --
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05:44
"I have observed that the furthest
planet has three bodies."
planet has three bodies."
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' Spazio sam da najdalja planeta ima 3 tela.'
I on je na kraju zaključio da je to video.
05:48
And this is what he ended up
concluding that he saw.
concluding that he saw.
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Dakle bez teorije o planetarnim prstenovima i sa razbacanim podacima,
05:51
So without a theory of planetary
rings and with only grainy data,
rings and with only grainy data,
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05:54
you can't have a good theory.
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ne možete da imate dobru teoriju.
05:56
It wasn't solved until 1655.
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I ovo nije bilo rešeno do 1655.
05:58
This is Christiaan Huygens's book
that catalogs all the mistakes
that catalogs all the mistakes
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Ovo je knjiga Kristijana Hojgensa u kojoj je nabrojao sve greške
06:01
people made trying to figure out
what was going on with Saturn.
what was going on with Saturn.
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koje su ljudi pravili pokušavajući da shvate šta se događa sa Saturnom.
I nisu dok Hojgens nije imao dve stvari.
06:04
It wasn't till Huygens had two things:
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Imao je dobru teoriju o planetarnim prstenovima i kako solarni sistem radi.
06:06
He had a good theory of planetary rings
and how the solar system operated,
and how the solar system operated,
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06:10
and he had better telescopic,
more fine-grain data
more fine-grain data
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I onda,imao je bolji teleskop,više sređenih podataka
06:13
in which he could figure out that
as the Earth is going around faster --
as the Earth is going around faster --
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sa kojima je shvatio da Zemlja kruži brže--
po Keplerovim zakonima--od Saturna,onda smo shvatili.
06:17
according to Kepler's Laws --
than Saturn, then we catch up with it.
than Saturn, then we catch up with it.
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I vidimo sve uglove prstenova pod različitim uglovima,ovde.
06:20
And we see the angles of the rings
at different angles, there.
at different angles, there.
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06:23
And that, in fact, turns out to be true.
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I to se ispostavilo da je bilo tačno.
Problem sa teorijom
06:26
The problem with having a theory is that
it may be loaded with cognitive biases.
it may be loaded with cognitive biases.
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je da je vaša teorija možda prepunjena kognitivnim predubeđenjima.
Dakle,jedan od problema što se tiče objašnjavanja zašto ljudi veruju u čudne stvari
06:31
So one of the problems of explaining
why people believe weird things
why people believe weird things
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je da imamo stvari na jednostavnijem nivou.
06:34
is that we have things, on a simple level,
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A onda ću preći na ozbiljnije.
06:36
and then I'll go to more serious ones.
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Na primer,težimo da vidimo lica.
06:38
Like, we have a tendency to see faces.
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Ovo je lice na Marsu koje je bilo--
06:40
This is the face on Mars.
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1976. godine,kada je postojao pokret koji je hteo da NASA
06:42
In 1976, where there was a whole movement
to get NASA to photograph that area
to get NASA to photograph that area
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fotografiše tu regiju jer su ljudi mislili
06:46
because people thought this was monumental
architecture made by Martians.
architecture made by Martians.
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da je ovo monumentalna arhitektura koju su napravili Marsovci.
Ipak,kako se ispostavlja-- evo ga njegov bliži snimak iz 2001.
06:50
Here's the close-up of it from 2001.
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06:53
If you squint, you can still see the face.
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Ako žmirkate,i dalje možete da vidite lice.
I kada žmirkate,ono što radite je
06:56
And when you're squinting,
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06:57
you're turning that from fine-grain
to coarse-grain,
to coarse-grain,
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da ga pretvarate iz lepo definisanog u grubo definisanog.
I tako,smanjujete kvalitet svojih podataka.
07:00
so you're reducing
the quality of your data.
the quality of your data.
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I da vam nisam rekao šta da tražite,opet biste videli lice,
07:02
And if I didn't tell you what to look for,
you'd still see the face,
you'd still see the face,
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jer smo isprogramirani evolucijom da vidimo lica.
07:05
because we're programmed
by evolution to see faces.
by evolution to see faces.
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Lica su nam socijalno bitna.
07:08
Faces are important for us socially.
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I naravno,srećna lica.
07:10
And of course, happy faces,
faces of all kinds are easy to see.
faces of all kinds are easy to see.
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Lica svih vrsta je lako videti.
(Smeh)
07:14
You see the happy face on Mars, there.
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Možete videti srećno lice na Marsu,ovde.
07:16
(Laughter)
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Da su astronomi žabe možda bi videli Kermita Žapca.
07:17
If astronomers were frogs,
perhaps they'd see Kermit the Frog.
perhaps they'd see Kermit the Frog.
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Vidite li ga tu?
07:20
Do you see him there? Little froggy legs.
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Male žablje noge.
07:22
Or if geologists were elephants?
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Ili da su geolozi slonovi?
07:25
Religious iconography.
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Religijska ikonografija.
07:28
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
Otkriveno od strane pekara is Tenesija 1996.
07:31
Discovered by a Tennessee baker in 1996.
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07:33
He charged five bucks a head
to come see the nun bun
to come see the nun bun
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Naplaćivao je 5 dolara po osobi koje su mogle da vide kaluđericu-zemičku
dok ga advokati Majke Tereze nisu naterali da prestane.
07:36
till he got a cease-and-desist
from Mother Teresa's lawyer.
from Mother Teresa's lawyer.
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Ovo je Naša Gospa od Gvadalupe i Naša Gospa od Vatsonvil,dole niz ulicu.
07:40
Here's Our Lady of Guadalupe and Our
Lady of Watsonville, just down the street,
Lady of Watsonville, just down the street,
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07:43
or is it up the street from here?
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Ili to uz ulicu odavde?
07:45
Tree bark is particularly good
because it's nice and grainy, branchy,
because it's nice and grainy, branchy,
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Stablo je naročito dobro jer je lepo i hrapavo,granato,
07:48
black-and-white splotchy and you can
get the pattern-seeking --
get the pattern-seeking --
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izmrljano crno-belom bojom i možete da tražite oblike--
ljudi su životinje koje traže oblike.
07:51
humans are pattern-seeking animals.
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07:53
Here's the Virgin Mary on the side
of a glass window in Sao Paulo.
of a glass window in Sao Paulo.
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Evo je Devica Marija na prozoru u Sao Paulu.
Sad,ovde se Devica Marija pojavila na sandviču od sira--
07:57
Here's when the Virgin Mary made
her appearance on a cheese sandwich --
her appearance on a cheese sandwich --
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koji sam držao u kazinu u Las Vegasu,
08:00
which I got to actually
hold in a Las Vegas casino --
hold in a Las Vegas casino --
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naravno,jer to je Amerika.
08:03
of course, this being America.
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(Smeh)
08:04
(Laughter)
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08:06
This casino paid $28,500
on eBay for the cheese sandwich.
on eBay for the cheese sandwich.
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Ovaj kazino je platio 28,500 dolara na eBay-u za ovaj sendvič.
08:10
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
08:12
But who does it really look like?
The Virgin Mary?
The Virgin Mary?
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Ali na koga stvarno liči,Devicu Mariju?
(Smeh)
08:15
(Laughter)
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Ima napućene usne,izgled 1940-ih.
08:17
It has that sort of
puckered lips, 1940s-era look.
puckered lips, 1940s-era look.
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Devica Marija u Klirvateru,Floridi.
08:21
Virgin Mary in Clearwater, Florida.
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08:22
I actually went to see this one.
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Išao sam da vidim ovo.
08:24
There was a lot of people there.
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Bilo je puno ljudi tamo--vernici su došli u svojim--
08:26
The faithful come in their wheelchairs
and crutches, and so on.
and crutches, and so on.
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kolicima i štakama,i tako dalje.
I otišli smo dole,da istražimo.
08:31
We went down and investigated.
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Da vam dam predstavu o veličini--to je Dokins,ja i Neverovatni Rendi,
08:33
Just to give you a size, that's Dawkins,
me and The Amazing Randi,
me and The Amazing Randi,
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pored ove slike veličine 2 i po sprata.
08:36
next to this two,
two and a half story-sized image.
two and a half story-sized image.
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Sve ove sveće,toliko hiljade sveća su ljudi upalili u čast ovome.
08:38
All these candles, thousands of candles
people had lit in tribute to this.
people had lit in tribute to this.
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Onda smo otišli iza,da vidimo šta se tamo događa,
08:42
So we walked around the backside,
to see what was going on.
to see what was going on.
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kad se ispostavilo da ako imate prskalicu i palmu,
08:45
It turns out wherever there's
a sprinkler head and a palm tree,
a sprinkler head and a palm tree,
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dobijate taj efekat.
08:48
you get the effect.
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08:49
Here's the Virgin Mary on the backside,
which they started to wipe off.
which they started to wipe off.
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Evo je Devica Marija od iza,koju su počeli da brišu.
Pretpostavljam da možete da imate samo jedno čudo po zgradi.
08:53
I guess you can only have
one miracle per building.
one miracle per building.
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08:55
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
Onda da li je to stvarno čudo Marije ili Mardž?
08:59
So is it really a miracle of Mary,
or is it a miracle of Marge?
or is it a miracle of Marge?
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(Smeh)
09:02
(Laughter)
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I onda ću završiti sa još jednim primerom
09:03
And now I'm going to finish up
with another example of this,
with another example of this,
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sa zvukom--zvučnim iluzijama.
09:07
with auditory illusions.
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Postoji jedan film,'Beli Zvuk',
09:10
There's this film, "White Noise,"
with Michael Keaton,
with Michael Keaton,
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sa Majklom Kitonom o razgovaranju s mrtvima.
09:12
about the dead talking back to us.
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I ovaj ceo biznis pričanja s mrtvima,nije neka velika stvar.
09:15
By the way, the whole business of talking
to the dead is not that big a deal.
to the dead is not that big a deal.
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Kako izgleda,svako to može da radi.
09:19
Anybody can do it, turns out.
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Naterati mrtve da odgovaraju je ustvari težak deo.
09:20
It's getting the dead to talk
back that's the really hard part.
back that's the really hard part.
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(Smeh)
09:23
(Laughter)
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Naime,u ovom slučaju ove poruke su sakrivene u elektronskom fenomenu.
09:24
In this case, supposedly, these messages
are hidden in electronic phenomena.
are hidden in electronic phenomena.
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09:28
There's a ReverseSpeech.com web page
where I downloaded this stuff.
where I downloaded this stuff.
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Postoji web stranica ReverseSpeech.com (reverse speech=obrnuti govor) sa koje sam skinuo ovu stvar.
Evo ga od napred--ovo je najpoznatiji od svih.
09:31
This is the most famous one
of all of these.
of all of these.
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Evo je verzija od napred veoma poznate pesme.
09:35
Here's the forward version
of the very famous song.
of the very famous song.
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09:37
(Music with lyrics)
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09:39
If there's a bustle in your hedgerow
don't be alarmed now.
don't be alarmed now.
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09:44
It's just a spring clean
for the May Queen.
for the May Queen.
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09:50
Yes, there are two paths you
can go by, but in the long run,
can go by, but in the long run,
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09:56
There's still time to change
the road you're on
the road you're on
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Uf,da li ne biste slušali ovo po ceo dan?
10:03
Couldn't you just listen to that all day?
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(Smeh)
U redu,evo ga od nazad,
10:06
All right, here it is backwards,
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10:07
and see if you can hear the hidden
messages that are supposedly in there.
messages that are supposedly in there.
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i vidite ako možete da nađete skrivene poruke koje su navodno tu.
10:12
(Music with unintelligible lyrics)
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10:26
(Lyrics) Satan!
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10:27
(Unintelligible lyrics continue)
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Šta ste čuli?
10:41
What did you get?
Audience: Satan!
Audience: Satan!
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(Publika:Sotona.)
10:43
Satan. OK, at least we got "Satan".
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Sotona?Ok,onda,bar imamo Sotonu.
10:45
Now, I'll prime the auditory
part of your brain
part of your brain
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Sada,nateraću vaš auditorni deo mozga
10:47
to tell you what you're supposed
to hear, and then hear it again.
to hear, and then hear it again.
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da vam kaže šta biste trebalo da čujete,i onda da ga čujete opet.
10:50
(Music with lyrics)
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11:17
(Music ends)
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(Smeh)
11:18
(Laughter)
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(Aplauz)
11:19
(Applause)
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Ne može vam promaći kada vam kažem šta je tu.
11:26
You can't miss it
when I tell you what's there.
when I tell you what's there.
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11:28
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
U redu,završiću sa jednom pozitivnom,lepom,malom pričom
11:32
I'm going to just end
with a positive, nice little story.
with a positive, nice little story.
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o--Skeptici je neprofitna obrazovna organizacija.
11:36
The Skeptics is a nonprofit
educational organization.
educational organization.
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Uvek tražimo male,dobre stvari koje ljudi rade.
11:39
We're always looking for little
good things that people do.
good things that people do.
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I u Engleskoj,postoji jedna pop pevačica.
11:41
And in England, there's a pop singer.
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Veoma--jedna od najpopularnijih pevačica današnjice u Engleskoj,Kejti Melua.
11:43
One of the top popular singers
in England today, Katie Melua.
in England today, Katie Melua.
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I napisala je prelepu pesmu.
11:47
And she wrote a beautiful song.
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Bila je u prvih pet 2005-e,koja se zove 'Devet miliona bicikala u Pekingu.'
11:49
It was in the top five in 2005, called,
"Nine Million Bicycles in Beijing."
"Nine Million Bicycles in Beijing."
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11:54
It's a love story -- she's sort
of the Norah Jones of the UK --
of the Norah Jones of the UK --
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To je ljubavna priča--ona je kao Nora Džons Velike Britanije--
o tome kako ona mnogo voli svog dečka,
11:57
about how she much loves her guy,
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11:59
and compared to nine million
bicycles, and so forth.
bicycles, and so forth.
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i upoređuje sa 9 miliona bicikala,i tako dalje.
I ima ovaj pasus ovde.
12:02
And she has this one passage here.
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12:04
(Music)
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♫ Mi smo 12 milijarde svetlosnih godina od ivice♫
12:05
(Lyrics) We are 12 billion
light-years from the edge
light-years from the edge
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♫ To se pretpostavlja♫
12:11
That's a guess,
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♫ Niko ne može da ikada kaže da je to istina♫
12:13
No one can ever say it's true,
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♫ Ali znam da ću uvek biti s tobom♫
12:17
But I know that I will always be with you.
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Baš lepo.
12:22
Michael Shermer: Well, that's nice.
At least she got it close.
At least she got it close.
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Bar je bila blizu.
U Americi bi bilo 'Mi smo 6,000 svetlosnih godina od ivice.'
12:25
In America it'd be,
"We're 6,000 light years from the edge."
"We're 6,000 light years from the edge."
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(Smeh)
12:28
(Laughter)
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Ali moj prijatelj,Sajmon Sin,koji se bavi fizikom elementarnih čestica,sada već naučnim obrazovanjem,
12:29
But my friend, Simon Singh, the particle
physicist now turned science educator,
physicist now turned science educator,
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i napisao je knjigu 'Veliki Prasak' i tako dalje.
12:33
who wrote the book
"The Big Bang," and so on,
"The Big Bang," and so on,
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On koristi svaku priliku da promoviše dobru nauku.
12:35
uses every chance he gets
to promote good science.
to promote good science.
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I tako,napisao je članak u Gardijanu o Kejtinoj pesmi,
12:37
And so he wrote an op-ed piece
in "The Guardian" about Katie's song,
in "The Guardian" about Katie's song,
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u kojoj je rekao da znamo tačno koliko staro,koliko daleko od ivice.
12:41
in which he said, well, we know exactly
how far from the edge.
how far from the edge.
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Znate,to je 12--ima 13.7 milijarde svetlosnih godina, i to nije pretpostavka.
12:46
You know, it's 13.7 billion light years,
and it's not a guess.
and it's not a guess.
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Znamo tačno koliko i sa kojim intervalima greške je blizu.
12:50
We know within precise
error bars how close it is.
error bars how close it is.
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I tako,možemo reći,iako nije apsolutno tačno,da smo baš blizu.
12:54
So we can say, although not absolutely
true, it's pretty close to being true.
true, it's pretty close to being true.
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I,njegovom zaslugom,Kejti ga je pozvala nakon što je njegov članak izašao.
12:58
And, to his credit, Katie called him up
after this op-ed piece came out, and said,
after this op-ed piece came out, and said,
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I rekla,'Veoma sam posramljena.
13:02
"I'm so embarrassed.
I was in the astronomy club.
I was in the astronomy club.
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Bila sam član kluba astronomije,i trebalo je da znam bolje.'
13:05
I should've known better."
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I prepravila je pesmu.
13:06
And she re-cut the song.
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I završiću sa novom verzijom.
13:07
So I will end with the new version.
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♫ Mi smo 13.7 milijardi svetlosnih godina♫
13:09
(Music with lyrics)
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13:11
We are 13.7 billion light years
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♫ od ivice posmatranog svemira♫
13:13
from the edge of the observable universe.
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♫ To je dobra procena sa dobro definisanim intervalima greške♫
13:17
That's a good estimate
with well-defined error bars.
with well-defined error bars.
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♫ I sa dostupnim informacijama♫
13:20
And with the available information,
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♫ Prognoziram da ću uvek biti s tobom♫
13:24
I predict that I will always be with you.
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(Aplauz)
13:28
(Laughter)
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Koliko je ovo kul?
13:29
How cool is that?
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(Aplauz)
13:30
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michael Shermer - SkepticMichael Shermer debunks myths, superstitions and urban legends -- and explains why we believe them. Along with publishing Skeptic Magazine, he's author of Why People Believe Weird Things and The Mind of the Market.
Why you should listen
As founder and publisher of Skeptic Magazine, Michael Shermer has exposed fallacies behind intelligent design, 9/11 conspiracies, the low-carb craze, alien sightings and other popular beliefs and paranoias. But it's not about debunking for debunking's sake. Shermer defends the notion that we can understand our world better only by matching good theory with good science.
Shermer's work offers cognitive context for our often misguided beliefs: In the absence of sound science, incomplete information can powerfully combine with the power of suggestion (helping us hear Satanic lyrics when "Stairway to Heaven" plays backwards, for example). In fact, a common thread that runs through beliefs of all sorts, he says, is our tendency to convince ourselves: We overvalue the shreds of evidence that support our preferred outcome, and ignore the facts we aren't looking for.
He writes a monthly column for Scientific American, and is an adjunct at Claremont Graduate University and Chapman University. His latest book is The Believing Brain: From Ghosts and Gods to Politics and Conspiracies—How We Construct Beliefs and Reinforce Them as Truths. He is also the author of The Mind of the Market, on evolutionary economics, Why Darwin Matters: Evolution and the Case Against Intelligent Design, and The Science of Good and Evil. And his next book is titled The Moral Arc of Science.
Michael Shermer | Speaker | TED.com