TED2006
Michael Shermer: Why people believe weird things
Michael Shermer snakker om å tro på rare ting.
Filmed:
Readability: 4.2
7,339,268 views
Hvorfor ser folk Jomfru Maria på ostesmørbrød og hører demoniske tekster i "Stairway to Heaven"? Med bruk av video og musikk viser skeptikeren Michael Shermer oss hvordan vi overbeviser oss selv til å tro -- og å overse fakta.
Michael Shermer - Skeptic
Michael Shermer debunks myths, superstitions and urban legends -- and explains why we believe them. Along with publishing Skeptic Magazine, he's author of Why People Believe Weird Things and The Mind of the Market. Full bio
Michael Shermer debunks myths, superstitions and urban legends -- and explains why we believe them. Along with publishing Skeptic Magazine, he's author of Why People Believe Weird Things and The Mind of the Market. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:24
I'm Michael Shermer,
director of the Skeptics Society,
director of the Skeptics Society,
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Jeg heter Michael Shermer, og er direktør i Skeptics Society,-
-som gir ut bladet Skeptic.
00:27
publisher of "Skeptic" magazine.
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Vi undersøker påstander om det paranormale, pseudo-vitenskap,-
00:28
We investigate claims of the paranormal,
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-sekter og kulter, og alle typer påstander:
00:30
pseudo-science, fringe groups and cults,
and claims of all kinds between,
and claims of all kinds between,
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00:34
science and pseudo-science
and non-science and junk science,
and non-science and junk science,
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Vitenskap, pseudovitenskap, ikke-vitenskap og søppelvitenskap,-
- voodoo-vitenskap, patologisk vitenskap, dårlig vitenskap, ikke-vitenskap-
00:37
voodoo science, pathological science,
bad science, non-science,
bad science, non-science,
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00:40
and plain old non-sense.
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-og regelrett nonsens.
00:42
And unless you've been on Mars recently,
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Og om du ikke nylig har vært på Mars,-
00:44
you know there's a lot of that out there.
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-så vet du at slikt finnes det mye av.
00:46
Some people call us debunkers,
which is kind of a negative term.
which is kind of a negative term.
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Noen kaller oss avslørere, som er et litt negativt uttrykk.
00:49
But let's face it, there's a lot of bunk.
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Men la oss være ærlige: Det er mye å avsløre.
Vi er litt som politiets svindelavdeling.
00:51
We are like the bunko squads
of the police departments out there --
of the police departments out there --
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00:55
well, we're sort of like
the Ralph Naders of bad ideas,
the Ralph Naders of bad ideas,
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Litt som de dårlige idéers Ralph Nader--
00:58
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
--på utkikk etter å erstatte dårlige idéer med gode.
01:00
trying to replace bad ideas
with good ideas.
with good ideas.
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01:02
I'll show you an example of a bad idea.
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La meg vise et eksempel på en dårlig idé.
01:04
I brought this with me,
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Jeg tok denne med meg.
01:05
this was given to us
by NBC Dateline to test.
by NBC Dateline to test.
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Den ble gitt oss av NBC Dateline for testing.
01:09
It's produced by the Quadro
Corporation of West Virginia.
Corporation of West Virginia.
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Den produseres av Quadro Corporation fra Vest-Virginia.
Det er en Quadro 2000 Dowser Rod (søkevinkel)
01:13
It's called the Quadro 2000 Dowser Rod.
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(Latter)
01:16
(Laughter)
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01:17
This was being sold to high-school
administrators for $900 apiece.
administrators for $900 apiece.
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Den ble solgt til videregående skoler for seks tusen kroner per stykk.
01:22
It's a piece of plastic with a Radio
Shack antenna attached to it.
Shack antenna attached to it.
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Det er et stykke plastikk med en radioantenne på.
Du kan bruke den til å søke etter det meste, men denne-
01:27
You could dowse for all sorts of things,
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01:29
but this particular one was built
to dowse for marijuana
to dowse for marijuana
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-er laget for å finne marihuana i elevenes skap.
01:32
in students' lockers.
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01:33
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
Måten den virker på, er at du går nedover gangen og ser om-
01:36
So the way it works
is you go down the hallway,
is you go down the hallway,
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01:39
and you see if it tilts
toward a particular locker,
toward a particular locker,
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-den bøyes mot et spesielt skap, og så åpner du det.
01:42
and then you open the locker.
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Så det ser ut som dette.
01:44
So it looks something like this.
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Jeg kan vise dere.
01:45
I'll show you.
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01:48
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
01:49
Well, it has kind of a right-leaning bias.
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Det har en tendens til å gå mot høyre.
Siden dette er vitenskap, kan vi gjøre et kontrolleksperiment.
01:53
Well, this is science,
so we'll do a controlled experiment.
so we'll do a controlled experiment.
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Den går helt sikkert mot denne siden.
01:56
It'll go this way for sure.
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(Latter)
01:57
(Laughter)
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02:01
Sir, do you want to empty
your pockets, please, sir?
your pockets, please, sir?
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Unnskyld, kan du tømme lommene dine?
(Latter)
02:04
(Laughter)
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Så, spørsmålet er om den er i stand til å finne marihuana i elevenes skap?
02:06
So the question was, can it actually
find marijuana in students' lockers?
find marijuana in students' lockers?
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Svaret er ja, forutsatt at du åpner nok skap.
02:09
And the answer is,
if you open enough of them, yes.
if you open enough of them, yes.
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(Latter)
02:12
(Laughter)
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(Applaus)
02:13
(Applause)
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02:14
But in science, we have to keep track
of the misses, not just the hits.
of the misses, not just the hits.
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Men vi må huske å registrere bommene og ikke bare treffene.
Og dette er hovedpoenget i det korte foredraget mitt:
02:18
And that's probably the key lesson
to my short talk here:
to my short talk here:
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02:21
This is how psychics work, astrologers,
tarot card readers and so on.
tarot card readers and so on.
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Dette er hvordan synske, astrologer og tarotkortlesere arbeider:
Man husker treffene og glemmer bommene.
02:25
People remember the hits
and forget the misses.
and forget the misses.
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I vitenskapen tar vi vare på alle dataene-
02:27
In science, we keep the whole database,
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-og ser om treffprosenten er annerledes enn-
02:29
and look to see if the number
of hits somehow stands out
of hits somehow stands out
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det du forventer ved tilfeldighet.
02:32
from the total number
you'd expect by chance.
you'd expect by chance.
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Vi har testet denne.
02:34
In this case, we tested it.
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02:35
We had two opaque boxes:
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Vi satt opp to lystette bokser,-
02:37
one with government-approved THC
marijuana, and one with nothing.
marijuana, and one with nothing.
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-en med marihuana og en som var tom.
Den fikk rett halvparten av gangene-
02:40
And it got it 50 percent of the time --
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02:42
(Laughter)
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-som er akkurat det vi kunne forvente ved myntkast.
02:43
which is exactly what you'd expect
with a coin-flip model.
with a coin-flip model.
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02:46
So that's just a fun little example
here of the sorts of things we do.
here of the sorts of things we do.
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Så det er bare et lite morsomt eksempel på den type ting vi driver med.
Bladet Skeptic gis ut fire ganger i året.
02:50
"Skeptic" is the quarterly publication.
Each one has a particular theme.
Each one has a particular theme.
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Hvert blad har et spesielt tema. Dette handler om intelligensens fremtid:
02:54
This one is on the future of intelligence.
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Blir folk smartere eller dummere?
02:56
Are people getting smarter or dumber?
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Jeg har en mening om dette på grunn av arbeidet jeg gjør.
02:58
I have an opinion of this myself
because of the business I'm in,
because of the business I'm in,
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Men, det viser seg faktisk at folk blir smartere.
03:01
but in fact, people, it turns out,
are getting smarter.
are getting smarter.
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Tre IQ-poeng opp per tiårsperiode.
03:03
Three IQ points per 10 years, going up.
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03:06
Sort of an interesting thing.
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Det er interessant.
03:08
With science, don't think of skepticism
as a thing, or science as a thing.
as a thing, or science as a thing.
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Man bør ikke tenke på skeptisisme eller vitenskap som ting.
Er vitenskap og religion kompatible?
03:12
Are science and religion compatible?
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03:13
It's like, are science
and plumbing compatible?
and plumbing compatible?
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Det er som å spørre om vitenskap og rørlegging er kompatible.
Det er to ulike ting.
03:16
They're just two different things.
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03:17
Science is not a thing. It's a verb.
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Vitenskap er ikke en ting, det er et verb.
03:19
It's a way of thinking about things.
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Det er en måte å tenke på ting,-
03:21
It's a way of looking for natural
explanations for all phenomena.
explanations for all phenomena.
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-en måte å se etter naturlige forklaringer for alt..
Hva er mest sannsynlig,-
03:24
I mean, what's more likely:
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03:25
that extraterrestrial intelligences
or multi-dimensional beings
or multi-dimensional beings
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-at utenomjordiske eller multidimensjonelle vesener reiser over-
03:29
travel across vast distances
of interstellar space
of interstellar space
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-verdensrommets enorme strekninger for å lage kornsirkler-
03:31
to leave a crop circle in Farmer Bob's
field in Puckerbrush, Kansas
field in Puckerbrush, Kansas
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-på åkeren til en bonde i Kansas for å reklamere for websiden vår?
03:34
to promote skeptic.com, our web page?
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Eller er det mer sannsynlig at en av våre lesere lagde dette med Photoshop?
03:36
Or is it more likely that a reader
of "Skeptic" did this with Photoshop?
of "Skeptic" did this with Photoshop?
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I alle slike saker må vi spørre oss--
03:41
And in all cases we have to ask --
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(Latter)
03:42
(Laughter)
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03:44
What's the more likely explanation?
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--hva er den mest sannsynlige forklaringen?
03:46
Before we say something
is out of this world,
is out of this world,
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Og før vi fastslår at noe er fra en annen verden-
-bør vi sjekke om det kan være av denne verden.
03:48
we should first make sure
that it's not in this world.
that it's not in this world.
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Hva er mest sannsynlig:
03:51
What's more likely:
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At Arnold fikk utenomjordisk hjelp for å bli guvernør?
03:52
that Arnold had extraterrestrial help
in his run for the governorship,
in his run for the governorship,
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Eller at World Weekly News bare dikter opp ting?
03:56
or that the "World Weekly News"
makes stuff up?
makes stuff up?
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03:58
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
Det samme poenget illustreres godt-
04:00
The same theme is expressed nicely
here in this Sidney Harris cartoon.
here in this Sidney Harris cartoon.
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-i denne tegneserien av Sidney Harris.
04:04
For those of you in the back,
it says here: "Then a miracle occurs.
it says here: "Then a miracle occurs.
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For dere der bake så står det: "Så inntreffer det et mirakel.-
04:08
I think you need to be more
explicit here in step two."
explicit here in step two."
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-Jeg synes kanskje du bør forklare steg to nærmere."
04:10
This single slide completely dismantles
the intelligent design arguments.
the intelligent design arguments.
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Dette bildet river ned hele intelligent design-argumentet.
Det er hele argumentet deres.
04:15
There's nothing more to it than that.
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(Applaus)
04:17
(Applause)
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Du kan påstå at det skjer et mirakel.
04:18
You can say a miracle occurs,
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04:19
it's just that it doesn't explain
anything or offer anything.
anything or offer anything.
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Det forklarer fortsatt ingenting.
Det har ingenting å tilby. Det er ingenting å teste.
04:22
There's nothing to test.
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Det er der debatten slutter for ID-kreasjonistene.
04:23
It's the end of the conversation
for intelligent design creationists.
for intelligent design creationists.
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Vitenskapsmenn bruker også av og til ord bare som-
04:27
And it's true, scientists sometimes throw
terms out as linguistic place fillers --
terms out as linguistic place fillers --
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lingvistiske plassholdere--som mørk energi og mørk materie.
04:32
dark energy or dark matter,
something like that --
something like that --
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Inntil vi finner ut hva noe er, kaller vi det for dette.
04:34
until we figure out what it is,
we'll call it this.
we'll call it this.
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Det er starten på kausalkjeden for vitenskapsmenn.
04:37
It's the beginning of the causal
chain for science.
chain for science.
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For ID-kreasjonister er det enden på kjeden.
04:39
For intelligent design creationists,
it's the end of the chain.
it's the end of the chain.
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Igjen kan vi spørre, Hva er mest sannsynlig:
04:43
So again, we can ask this:
what's more likely?
what's more likely?
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Er UFOer utenomjordiske romskip eller kognitive feiloppfatninger, eller bare forfalskninger?
04:46
Are UFOs alien spaceships, or perceptual
cognitive mistakes, or even fakes?
cognitive mistakes, or even fakes?
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04:50
This is a UFO shot from my house
in Altadena, California,
in Altadena, California,
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Her et UFO-bilde tatt fra huset mitt i Altadena,-
04:53
looking down over Pasadena.
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-hvor vi ser ned på Pasadena.
04:55
And if it looks a lot like a Buick
hubcap, it's because it is.
hubcap, it's because it is.
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Om dere synes det ligner på en hjulkapsel fra en Buick, så er det fordi det er det.
04:59
You don't even need Photoshop
or high-tech equipment,
or high-tech equipment,
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Du trenger ikke engang Photoshop eller avansert utstyr,-
-du trenger ikke datamaskiner.
05:02
you don't need computers.
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05:03
This was shot with a throwaway
Kodak Instamatic camera.
Kodak Instamatic camera.
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Dette ble tatt med et Kodak engangskamera.
05:06
You just have somebody off on the side
with a hubcap ready to go.
with a hubcap ready to go.
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Du trenger bare noen til å stå klar på siden med en hjulkapsel.
Ha kameraet klart--det er det hele.
05:09
Camera's ready -- that's it.
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(Latter)
05:11
(Laughter)
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Så selv om det er mulig at de fleste slike ting er forfalskninger-
05:13
So, although it's possible
that most of these things are fake
that most of these things are fake
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05:16
or illusions or so on,
and that some of them are real,
and that some of them are real,
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-eller illusjoner og at noen er ekte,-
-så er det mer sannsynlig at alle er falske, som kornsirklene.
05:20
it's more likely that all of them
are fake, like the crop circles.
are fake, like the crop circles.
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På den seriøse siden, i alle typer vitenskap ser vi etter en balanse-
05:23
On a more serious note, in all of science
we're looking for a balance
we're looking for a balance
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-mellom data og teori.
05:27
between data and theory.
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05:28
In the case of Galileo,
he had two problems
he had two problems
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Galileo Galilei hadde to problemer-
05:32
when he turned his telescope to Saturn.
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-når han pekte teleskopet mot Saturn.
For det første fantes det ingen teori om planetringer.
05:35
First of all, there was no
theory of planetary rings.
theory of planetary rings.
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For det andre var all dataene hans utydelige,-
05:38
Second of all, his data
was grainy and fuzzy,
was grainy and fuzzy,
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-og han klarte ikke å skjønne hva det var han så.
05:40
and he couldn't quite make out
what he was looking at.
what he was looking at.
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Så han skrev:
05:43
So he wrote that he had seen --
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05:44
"I have observed that the furthest
planet has three bodies."
planet has three bodies."
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"Jeg har observert at planeten lengst unna har tre legemer."
Dette var hva han konkluderte med at han hadde sett.
05:48
And this is what he ended up
concluding that he saw.
concluding that he saw.
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Uten en teori om planetringer og med bare utydelige data-
05:51
So without a theory of planetary
rings and with only grainy data,
rings and with only grainy data,
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05:54
you can't have a good theory.
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-kan du ikke forme en god teori.
05:56
It wasn't solved until 1655.
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Dette ble ikke løst før i 1655.
05:58
This is Christiaan Huygens's book
that catalogs all the mistakes
that catalogs all the mistakes
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Dette er Christiaan Huygens bok hvor han katalogiserte alle feilene-
06:01
people made trying to figure out
what was going on with Saturn.
what was going on with Saturn.
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-folk gjorde da de studerte Saturn.
Huygens hadde to ting å gå på:
06:04
It wasn't till Huygens had two things:
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En god teori om planetringer og hvordan solsystemet fungerte.
06:06
He had a good theory of planetary rings
and how the solar system operated,
and how the solar system operated,
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06:10
and he had better telescopic,
more fine-grain data
more fine-grain data
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Og han hadde bedre teleskoper som ga tydeligere data,-
06:13
in which he could figure out that
as the Earth is going around faster --
as the Earth is going around faster --
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som gjorde at han fant ut at siden Jorda beveger seg fortere--
i følge Keplers lover-- enn Saturn, så tar vi den igjen-
06:17
according to Kepler's Laws --
than Saturn, then we catch up with it.
than Saturn, then we catch up with it.
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-og vi ser de ulike vinklene på ringene til ulike tider.
06:20
And we see the angles of the rings
at different angles, there.
at different angles, there.
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06:23
And that, in fact, turns out to be true.
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Dette viser seg å være sant.
Problemet med å ha en teori-
06:26
The problem with having a theory is that
it may be loaded with cognitive biases.
it may be loaded with cognitive biases.
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-er at den kan være fylt av kognitive fordommer.
Så ett av problemene med å forklare hvorfor folk tror på rare ting-
06:31
So one of the problems of explaining
why people believe weird things
why people believe weird things
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-er at vi har problemer på et enkelt nivå-
06:34
is that we have things, on a simple level,
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- og så skal jeg senere ta for meg de mer alvorlige.
06:36
and then I'll go to more serious ones.
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For eksempel har vi en tendens til å se ansikter.
06:38
Like, we have a tendency to see faces.
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Dette er ansiktet på Mars.
06:40
This is the face on Mars.
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I 1976 fantes det en folkebevegelse for å få NASA-
06:42
In 1976, where there was a whole movement
to get NASA to photograph that area
to get NASA to photograph that area
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-til å fotografere dette området fordi folk trodde-
06:46
because people thought this was monumental
architecture made by Martians.
architecture made by Martians.
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-det var storslått arkitektur laget av marsboere.
Her er et nærbilde tatt i 2001.
06:50
Here's the close-up of it from 2001.
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06:53
If you squint, you can still see the face.
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Hvis du myser kan du fortsatt se ansiktet.
Det som skjer er at når du myser-
06:56
And when you're squinting,
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06:57
you're turning that from fine-grain
to coarse-grain,
to coarse-grain,
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-endrer du bildet fra fin- til grovkornet.
Du reduserer kvaliteten på dataene.
07:00
so you're reducing
the quality of your data.
the quality of your data.
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Selv om jeg ikke hadde sagt hva dere skulle se etter hadde dere fortsatt sett ansiktet,-
07:02
And if I didn't tell you what to look for,
you'd still see the face,
you'd still see the face,
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-fordi evolusjonen har programmert oss til å se ansikter.
07:05
because we're programmed
by evolution to see faces.
by evolution to see faces.
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Ansikter er sosialt viktige for oss.
07:08
Faces are important for us socially.
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Og selvfølgelig glade ansikter
07:10
And of course, happy faces,
faces of all kinds are easy to see.
faces of all kinds are easy to see.
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Alle typer ansikter er lette å se.
(Latter)
07:14
You see the happy face on Mars, there.
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Dere ser smilefjeset på Mars der.
07:16
(Laughter)
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Om astronomene var frosker hadde de kanskje sett frosken Kermit.
07:17
If astronomers were frogs,
perhaps they'd see Kermit the Frog.
perhaps they'd see Kermit the Frog.
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Ser dere ham?
07:20
Do you see him there? Little froggy legs.
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Små froskeføtter.
07:22
Or if geologists were elephants?
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Hva om geologene var elefanter?
07:25
Religious iconography.
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Religiøs ikonografi.
07:28
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
Oppdaget av en baker fra Tennessee i 1996.
07:31
Discovered by a Tennessee baker in 1996.
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07:33
He charged five bucks a head
to come see the nun bun
to come see the nun bun
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Han tok fem dollar per person for å se nonnebollen-
-før Mor Teresas advokat krevde at han sluttet.
07:36
till he got a cease-and-desist
from Mother Teresa's lawyer.
from Mother Teresa's lawyer.
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Her er Vår Frue av Guadalupe og Vår Frue av Watsonville, rett nedi gata her.
07:40
Here's Our Lady of Guadalupe and Our
Lady of Watsonville, just down the street,
Lady of Watsonville, just down the street,
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07:43
or is it up the street from here?
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Eller er det lengre opp i gata?
07:45
Tree bark is particularly good
because it's nice and grainy, branchy,
because it's nice and grainy, branchy,
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Trebark fungerer veldig godt fordi det er kornete og ujevnt,-
07:48
black-and-white splotchy and you can
get the pattern-seeking --
get the pattern-seeking --
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-med hvite og svarte flekker hvor du kan søke etter mønstre--
-mennesker er mønstersøkende vesener.
07:51
humans are pattern-seeking animals.
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1952
07:53
Here's the Virgin Mary on the side
of a glass window in Sao Paulo.
of a glass window in Sao Paulo.
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Her er Jomfru Maria på et glassvindu i Sao Paulo.
Her har Jomfru Maria dukket opp på et ostesmørbrød-
07:57
Here's when the Virgin Mary made
her appearance on a cheese sandwich --
her appearance on a cheese sandwich --
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som jeg fikk holde i et kasino i Las Vegas.
08:00
which I got to actually
hold in a Las Vegas casino --
hold in a Las Vegas casino --
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Det er tross alt Amerika.
08:03
of course, this being America.
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(Latter)
08:04
(Laughter)
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08:06
This casino paid $28,500
on eBay for the cheese sandwich.
on eBay for the cheese sandwich.
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Kasinoet betalte 28.500 dollar for det på eBay.
08:10
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
08:12
But who does it really look like?
The Virgin Mary?
The Virgin Mary?
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Men ser det egentlig ut som Jomfru Maria?
(Latter)
08:15
(Laughter)
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1979
Hun har trutmunn og 1940-talls look.
08:17
It has that sort of
puckered lips, 1940s-era look.
puckered lips, 1940s-era look.
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Jomfru Maria i Clearwater i Florida.
08:21
Virgin Mary in Clearwater, Florida.
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08:22
I actually went to see this one.
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Jeg dro og så denne.
08:24
There was a lot of people there.
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Det var masse folk der, de troende kom i-
08:26
The faithful come in their wheelchairs
and crutches, and so on.
and crutches, and so on.
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-rullestoler og krykker og så videre.
Vi dro ned og undersøkte dette.
08:31
We went down and investigated.
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For å vise dere størrelsen: dette er Dawkins, meg og James Randi,-
08:33
Just to give you a size, that's Dawkins,
me and The Amazing Randi,
me and The Amazing Randi,
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ved siden av dette to-tre-etasjes bildet.
08:36
next to this two,
two and a half story-sized image.
two and a half story-sized image.
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Mange tusen stearinlys var tent til hennes ære.
08:38
All these candles, thousands of candles
people had lit in tribute to this.
people had lit in tribute to this.
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Vi gikk rundt til baksiden av bygget for å se hva som var greia her,-
08:42
So we walked around the backside,
to see what was going on.
to see what was going on.
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-og vi fant ut at hvert sted det var en vannsprinkler og en palme-
08:45
It turns out wherever there's
a sprinkler head and a palm tree,
a sprinkler head and a palm tree,
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-fikk du denne effekten.
08:48
you get the effect.
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08:49
Here's the Virgin Mary on the backside,
which they started to wipe off.
which they started to wipe off.
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Her er Jomfru Maria på baksiden, og de har begynt å tørke henne vekk.
Du kan visst bare ha ett mirakel per bygning.
08:53
I guess you can only have
one miracle per building.
one miracle per building.
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08:55
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
Men er det egentlig et Maria-mirakel, eller er det et Marge-mirakel?
08:59
So is it really a miracle of Mary,
or is it a miracle of Marge?
or is it a miracle of Marge?
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(Latter)
09:02
(Laughter)
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Jeg vil avslutte med et annet eksempel på dette,-
09:03
And now I'm going to finish up
with another example of this,
with another example of this,
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-men med lydillusjoner.
09:07
with auditory illusions.
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Det er en film som heter "White Noise,"-
09:10
There's this film, "White Noise,"
with Michael Keaton,
with Michael Keaton,
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2526
-med Michael Keaton om at de døde snakker til oss.
09:12
about the dead talking back to us.
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Forresten er det ikke så imponerende å snakke til de døde
09:15
By the way, the whole business of talking
to the dead is not that big a deal.
to the dead is not that big a deal.
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Det viser seg at alle kan gjøre det.
09:19
Anybody can do it, turns out.
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Det vanskelige er å få de døde til å snakke tilbake.
09:20
It's getting the dead to talk
back that's the really hard part.
back that's the really hard part.
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(Latter)
09:23
(Laughter)
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I dette tilfellet er beskjedene gjemt i elektroniske fenomener.
09:24
In this case, supposedly, these messages
are hidden in electronic phenomena.
are hidden in electronic phenomena.
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09:28
There's a ReverseSpeech.com web page
where I downloaded this stuff.
where I downloaded this stuff.
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Det finnes en nettside kalt ReverseSpeech.com, hvor jeg nedlastet dette.
Her er den spilt den rette veien. Dette er den mest berømte av disse.
09:31
This is the most famous one
of all of these.
of all of these.
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Her er den berømte sangen spilt den rette veien.
09:35
Here's the forward version
of the very famous song.
of the very famous song.
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09:37
(Music with lyrics)
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09:39
If there's a bustle in your hedgerow
don't be alarmed now.
don't be alarmed now.
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09:44
It's just a spring clean
for the May Queen.
for the May Queen.
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09:50
Yes, there are two paths you
can go by, but in the long run,
can go by, but in the long run,
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4987
09:56
There's still time to change
the road you're on
the road you're on
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Kunne dere ikke hørt på dette hele dagen?
10:03
Couldn't you just listen to that all day?
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(Latter)
Her er den spilt baklengs.
10:06
All right, here it is backwards,
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1607
10:07
and see if you can hear the hidden
messages that are supposedly in there.
messages that are supposedly in there.
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4030
Prøv å se om dere hører de gjemte beskjedene som skal være der inne.
10:12
(Music with unintelligible lyrics)
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10:26
(Lyrics) Satan!
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10:27
(Unintelligible lyrics continue)
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Hva hørte dere?
10:41
What did you get?
Audience: Satan!
Audience: Satan!
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(Publikum: Satan)
10:43
Satan. OK, at least we got "Satan".
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1712
Satan? Ok, vi fant ihvertfall ordet Satan.
10:45
Now, I'll prime the auditory
part of your brain
part of your brain
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Nå skal jeg programmere hørselsmekanismene deres-
10:47
to tell you what you're supposed
to hear, and then hear it again.
to hear, and then hear it again.
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-til å fortelle dere hva dere skal høre, og spille det igjen.
10:50
(Music with lyrics)
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11:17
(Music ends)
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(Latter)
11:18
(Laughter)
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(Applaus)
11:19
(Applause)
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Dere kan bare ikke unngå det når jeg har fortalt dere det.
11:26
You can't miss it
when I tell you what's there.
when I tell you what's there.
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2549
11:28
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
Jeg vil avslutte med en hyggelig liten historie.
11:32
I'm going to just end
with a positive, nice little story.
with a positive, nice little story.
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4035
Skeptics er en nonprofitorganisasjon for utdanning.
11:36
The Skeptics is a nonprofit
educational organization.
educational organization.
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2845
Vi er alltid på utkikk etter de gode ting folk gjør.
11:39
We're always looking for little
good things that people do.
good things that people do.
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2820
I England er det en popsangerinne.
11:41
And in England, there's a pop singer.
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2009
Hun er en av de mest populære sangerinnene der, Katie Melua.
11:43
One of the top popular singers
in England today, Katie Melua.
in England today, Katie Melua.
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3745
Hun skrev en vakker sang-
11:47
And she wrote a beautiful song.
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-som var på topp fem i 2005, som het "Nine Million Bicycles in Beijing."
11:49
It was in the top five in 2005, called,
"Nine Million Bicycles in Beijing."
"Nine Million Bicycles in Beijing."
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5576
11:54
It's a love story -- she's sort
of the Norah Jones of the UK --
of the Norah Jones of the UK --
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3096
Det er en kjærlighetshistorie--hun er Storbritannias Norah Jones--
-om hvor mye hun elsker typen sin,
11:57
about how she much loves her guy,
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1621
11:59
and compared to nine million
bicycles, and so forth.
bicycles, and so forth.
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2476
og sammenligner det med ni millioner sykler.
Hun har en passasje som er slik:
12:02
And she has this one passage here.
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2225
12:04
(Music)
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1036
♫ Vi er 12 milliarder lysår fra kanten ♫
12:05
(Lyrics) We are 12 billion
light-years from the edge
light-years from the edge
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♫ Det er en gjetning ♫
12:11
That's a guess,
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2325
♫ Ingen kan noen gang si det er sant ♫
12:13
No one can ever say it's true,
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3711
♫ Men jeg vet jeg alltid vil være med deg ♫
12:17
But I know that I will always be with you.
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Det er bra.
12:22
Michael Shermer: Well, that's nice.
At least she got it close.
At least she got it close.
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2965
Hun kom nært i alle fall.
I Amerika ville det vært, "Vi er 6.000 lysår fra kanten."
12:25
In America it'd be,
"We're 6,000 light years from the edge."
"We're 6,000 light years from the edge."
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(Latter)
12:28
(Laughter)
246
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1036
Min venn, partikkelfysikeren Simon Singh, som nå er vitenskapslærer-
12:29
But my friend, Simon Singh, the particle
physicist now turned science educator,
physicist now turned science educator,
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-og skrev boken "The Big Bang",-
12:33
who wrote the book
"The Big Bang," and so on,
"The Big Bang," and so on,
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2127
-bruker hver sjanse han får til å promotere god vitenskap.
12:35
uses every chance he gets
to promote good science.
to promote good science.
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Han skrev en artikkel i avisen The Guardian om denne sangen,-
12:37
And so he wrote an op-ed piece
in "The Guardian" about Katie's song,
in "The Guardian" about Katie's song,
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og han sa at vi vet nøyaktig hvor gammelt og hvor langt fra kanten vi er.
12:41
in which he said, well, we know exactly
how far from the edge.
how far from the edge.
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Det er 13,7 milliarder lysår, og det er ikke gjetning.
12:46
You know, it's 13.7 billion light years,
and it's not a guess.
and it's not a guess.
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Vi vet, innenfor fastsatte feilmarginer, hvor nært vi er.
12:50
We know within precise
error bars how close it is.
error bars how close it is.
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Så vi kan si at selv om det ikke er helt garantert sant, så er det veldig nære å være det.
12:54
So we can say, although not absolutely
true, it's pretty close to being true.
true, it's pretty close to being true.
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Og Katie ringte ham faktisk etter at artikkelen kom ut-
12:58
And, to his credit, Katie called him up
after this op-ed piece came out, and said,
after this op-ed piece came out, and said,
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-og sa, "Jeg er så flau.
13:02
"I'm so embarrassed.
I was in the astronomy club.
I was in the astronomy club.
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Jeg var et medlem av astronomiklubben og jeg burde visst bedre."
13:05
I should've known better."
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Så hun skrev om sangen.
13:06
And she re-cut the song.
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1222
Jeg vil nå avslutte med den nye versjonen:
13:07
So I will end with the new version.
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♫ Vi er 13,7 milliarder lysår ♫
13:09
(Music with lyrics)
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1264
13:11
We are 13.7 billion light years
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♫ fra kanten av det oberverbare univers ♫
13:13
from the edge of the observable universe.
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♫ Det er et godt estimat med veldefinerte feilmarginer ♫
13:17
That's a good estimate
with well-defined error bars.
with well-defined error bars.
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♫ Og basert på den tilgjengelige informasjonen ♫
13:20
And with the available information,
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♫ forutsier jeg at jeg alltid vil være sammen med deg ♫
13:24
I predict that I will always be with you.
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(Applaus)
13:28
(Laughter)
266
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1157
Hvor kult er ikke det?
13:29
How cool is that?
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(Applaus)
13:30
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michael Shermer - SkepticMichael Shermer debunks myths, superstitions and urban legends -- and explains why we believe them. Along with publishing Skeptic Magazine, he's author of Why People Believe Weird Things and The Mind of the Market.
Why you should listen
As founder and publisher of Skeptic Magazine, Michael Shermer has exposed fallacies behind intelligent design, 9/11 conspiracies, the low-carb craze, alien sightings and other popular beliefs and paranoias. But it's not about debunking for debunking's sake. Shermer defends the notion that we can understand our world better only by matching good theory with good science.
Shermer's work offers cognitive context for our often misguided beliefs: In the absence of sound science, incomplete information can powerfully combine with the power of suggestion (helping us hear Satanic lyrics when "Stairway to Heaven" plays backwards, for example). In fact, a common thread that runs through beliefs of all sorts, he says, is our tendency to convince ourselves: We overvalue the shreds of evidence that support our preferred outcome, and ignore the facts we aren't looking for.
He writes a monthly column for Scientific American, and is an adjunct at Claremont Graduate University and Chapman University. His latest book is The Believing Brain: From Ghosts and Gods to Politics and Conspiracies—How We Construct Beliefs and Reinforce Them as Truths. He is also the author of The Mind of the Market, on evolutionary economics, Why Darwin Matters: Evolution and the Case Against Intelligent Design, and The Science of Good and Evil. And his next book is titled The Moral Arc of Science.
Michael Shermer | Speaker | TED.com