TED2006
Michael Shermer: Why people believe weird things
Michael Shermer o vjerovanju u čudne stvari
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Zašto ljudi vide Djevicu Mariju na sendviču od sira ili čuju đavolje riječi pjesme "Stepenice prema raju (Stairway to Heaven)?" Koristeći video i glazbu, skeptični Michael Shermer pokazuje kako mi uvjeravamo sebe da vjerujemo -- i previđamo činjenice.
Michael Shermer - Skeptic
Michael Shermer debunks myths, superstitions and urban legends -- and explains why we believe them. Along with publishing Skeptic Magazine, he's author of Why People Believe Weird Things and The Mind of the Market. Full bio
Michael Shermer debunks myths, superstitions and urban legends -- and explains why we believe them. Along with publishing Skeptic Magazine, he's author of Why People Believe Weird Things and The Mind of the Market. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:24
I'm Michael Shermer,
director of the Skeptics Society,
director of the Skeptics Society,
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Ej, ja sam Michael Shermer, direktor Društva skeptičnih,
izdavač magazina Skeptik.
00:27
publisher of "Skeptic" magazine.
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Istražujemo tvrdnje o paranormalnom, kvazi-znanosti,
00:28
We investigate claims of the paranormal,
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i marginalnih grupa i kultova te svih vrsta rubnih tvrdnji --
00:30
pseudo-science, fringe groups and cults,
and claims of all kinds between,
and claims of all kinds between,
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00:34
science and pseudo-science
and non-science and junk science,
and non-science and junk science,
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znanosti i kvazi-znanosti i ne-znanosti i otpada od znanosti,
vudu znanosti, patološkoj znanosti, lošoj znanosti, ne-znanosti
00:37
voodoo science, pathological science,
bad science, non-science,
bad science, non-science,
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00:40
and plain old non-sense.
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i obične stare besmislenosti.
00:42
And unless you've been on Mars recently,
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I osim ako niste skoro bili na Marsu,
00:44
you know there's a lot of that out there.
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znate da toga ima dosta vani.
00:46
Some people call us debunkers,
which is kind of a negative term.
which is kind of a negative term.
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Neki ljudi nas zovu razotkrivačima, što je neka vrsta negativnog naziva.
00:49
But let's face it, there's a lot of bunk.
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Ali budimo realni -- puno je toga pokrivenoga,
i mi kao odred policijske uprave za tajnovito, ispiremo.
00:51
We are like the bunko squads
of the police departments out there --
of the police departments out there --
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00:55
well, we're sort of like
the Ralph Naders of bad ideas,
the Ralph Naders of bad ideas,
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Dakle, mi smo kao Ralph Naders loših ideja --
00:58
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
-- pokušavajći zamijeniti loše ideje s dobrim idejama.
01:00
trying to replace bad ideas
with good ideas.
with good ideas.
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01:02
I'll show you an example of a bad idea.
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Pokazati ću vam primjer loše ideje.
01:04
I brought this with me,
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Donio sam ovo sa sobom.
01:05
this was given to us
by NBC Dateline to test.
by NBC Dateline to test.
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Ovo su nam dali s programa NBC Dateline na testiranje.
01:09
It's produced by the Quadro
Corporation of West Virginia.
Corporation of West Virginia.
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To je -- to je proizvela Quadro Corporation iz Zapadne Virginia-e.
Zove se Quadro 2000 Dowser Rod.
01:13
It's called the Quadro 2000 Dowser Rod.
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(Smijeh)
01:16
(Laughter)
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01:17
This was being sold to high-school
administrators for $900 apiece.
administrators for $900 apiece.
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Ovo se prodavalo ravnateljima srednjih škola za 900 dolara po komadu.
01:22
It's a piece of plastic with a Radio
Shack antenna attached to it.
Shack antenna attached to it.
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To je komad plastike s običnom antenom dodanom na nju.
Možete otkrivati sve moguće stvari, ali ovaj
01:27
You could dowse for all sorts of things,
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01:29
but this particular one was built
to dowse for marijuana
to dowse for marijuana
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je napravljen za otkrivanje marihuane u ormarićima učenika.
01:32
in students' lockers.
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01:33
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
Dakle način na koji to radi je, idete kroz hodnik i vidite ako
01:36
So the way it works
is you go down the hallway,
is you go down the hallway,
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01:39
and you see if it tilts
toward a particular locker,
toward a particular locker,
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skreće prema nekom ormariću, i onda otvorite ormarić.
01:42
and then you open the locker.
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Dakle to izgleda otprilike ovako.
01:44
So it looks something like this.
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Pokazat ću vam.
01:45
I'll show you.
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01:48
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
01:49
Well, it has kind of a right-leaning bias.
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Ne, to -- u redu, ima nekako naginjanje na desno.
Dakle, pokazat ću vam -- u redu, ovo je znanost, provest ćemo kontrolirani eksperiment.
01:53
Well, this is science,
so we'll do a controlled experiment.
so we'll do a controlled experiment.
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Ići će sigurno u ovom smjeru.
01:56
It'll go this way for sure.
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(Smijeh)
01:57
(Laughter)
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02:01
Sir, do you want to empty
your pockets, please, sir?
your pockets, please, sir?
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Gospodine, hoćete isprazniti vaše džepove. Molim vas, gospodine?
(Smijeh)
02:04
(Laughter)
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Znači pitanje je bilo, može li to stvarno naći marihuanu u učeničkim ormarićima?
02:06
So the question was, can it actually
find marijuana in students' lockers?
find marijuana in students' lockers?
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I odgovor je, ako ih dovoljno otvorite -- da.
02:09
And the answer is,
if you open enough of them, yes.
if you open enough of them, yes.
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(Smijeh)
02:12
(Laughter)
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(Pljesak)
02:13
(Applause)
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02:14
But in science, we have to keep track
of the misses, not just the hits.
of the misses, not just the hits.
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Ali u znanosti, moramo pratiti promašaje, ne samo pogotke.
A to je vjerovatno ključna lekcija mog kratkog govora ovdje, je da
02:18
And that's probably the key lesson
to my short talk here:
to my short talk here:
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02:21
This is how psychics work, astrologers,
tarot card readers and so on.
tarot card readers and so on.
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tako rade vidovnjaci, astrolozi, i čitači tarot karata i tako dalje.
Ljudi pamte pogotke; oni zaboravljaju promašaje.
02:25
People remember the hits
and forget the misses.
and forget the misses.
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U znanosti moramo čuvati cijelu bazu podataka,
02:27
In science, we keep the whole database,
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i gledati ako se broj pogodaka nekako ističe
02:29
and look to see if the number
of hits somehow stands out
of hits somehow stands out
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od ukupnog broja koji biste očekivali slučajno.
02:32
from the total number
you'd expect by chance.
you'd expect by chance.
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U ovom slučaju smo to testirali.
02:34
In this case, we tested it.
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02:35
We had two opaque boxes:
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Imali smo dvije neprozirne kutije,
02:37
one with government-approved THC
marijuana, and one with nothing.
marijuana, and one with nothing.
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jednu s THC marihuanom odobrenom od vlasti, i jednu praznu.
I pogodilo je u 50 posto slučajeva --
02:40
And it got it 50 percent of the time --
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02:42
(Laughter)
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-- što je točno koliko bi očekivali s modelom bacanja novčića.
02:43
which is exactly what you'd expect
with a coin-flip model.
with a coin-flip model.
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02:46
So that's just a fun little example
here of the sorts of things we do.
here of the sorts of things we do.
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Dakle to je samo mali zabavni primjer vrste onog čime se mi bavimo.
Skeptic izlazi jednom u kvartalu.
02:50
"Skeptic" is the quarterly publication.
Each one has a particular theme.
Each one has a particular theme.
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Svaki ima određenu temu, poput ovoga koji je o budućnosti inteligencije.
02:54
This one is on the future of intelligence.
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Postaju li ljudi pametniji ili gluplji?
02:56
Are people getting smarter or dumber?
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Ja imam mišljenje o ovome osobno zbog posla kojim se bavim.
02:58
I have an opinion of this myself
because of the business I'm in,
because of the business I'm in,
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Ali, uistinu, ljudi, ispada, postaju pametniji.
03:01
but in fact, people, it turns out,
are getting smarter.
are getting smarter.
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Tri IQ boda za 10 godina, idemo gore.
03:03
Three IQ points per 10 years, going up.
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03:06
Sort of an interesting thing.
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Na neki način zanimljiva stvar.
03:08
With science, don't think of skepticism
as a thing, or science as a thing.
as a thing, or science as a thing.
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Sa znanosti, ne mislite o skepticizmu kao stvari čak ili čak o znanosti kao stvari.
Jesu li znanost i religija kompatibilne?
03:12
Are science and religion compatible?
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03:13
It's like, are science
and plumbing compatible?
and plumbing compatible?
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To je kao, jesu li znanost i vodoinstalerstvo kompatibilni?
One -- to su samo dvije različite stvari.
03:16
They're just two different things.
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03:17
Science is not a thing. It's a verb.
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Znanost nije stvar. To je glagol.
03:19
It's a way of thinking about things.
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To je način razmišljanja o stvarima.
03:21
It's a way of looking for natural
explanations for all phenomena.
explanations for all phenomena.
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To je način traženja prirodnih objašnjenja za sve fenomene.
Mislim, što je vjerojatnije --
03:24
I mean, what's more likely:
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03:25
that extraterrestrial intelligences
or multi-dimensional beings
or multi-dimensional beings
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da vanzemaljci ili višedimenzionalna stvorenja putuju preko
03:29
travel across vast distances
of interstellar space
of interstellar space
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ogromnih udaljnosti međuzvjezdanog svemira da ostave krug u žitu
03:31
to leave a crop circle in Farmer Bob's
field in Puckerbrush, Kansas
field in Puckerbrush, Kansas
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u polju Farmera Boba u Puckerbrushu, Kansasa da promovira skeptic.com, naše web stranice?
03:34
to promote skeptic.com, our web page?
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Ili je vjerojatnije da je neki čitatelj Skeptica uradio to Photoshopom?
03:36
Or is it more likely that a reader
of "Skeptic" did this with Photoshop?
of "Skeptic" did this with Photoshop?
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I u svim slučajevima moramo se pitati --
03:41
And in all cases we have to ask --
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(Smijeh)
03:42
(Laughter)
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03:44
What's the more likely explanation?
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-- koje je vjerojatnije objašnjenje?
03:46
Before we say something
is out of this world,
is out of this world,
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I prije nego što kažemo da nešto potječe izvan ovog svijeta,
trebali bi prvo biti sigurnim da to nije na ovom svetu.
03:48
we should first make sure
that it's not in this world.
that it's not in this world.
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Što je vjerojatnije --
03:51
What's more likely:
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da je Arnold imao malu vanzemaljsku pomoć u izboru za guvernera?
03:52
that Arnold had extraterrestrial help
in his run for the governorship,
in his run for the governorship,
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Ili da World Weekly News izmišlja stvari?
03:56
or that the "World Weekly News"
makes stuff up?
makes stuff up?
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03:58
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
I dio toga -- ista tema je izražena lijepo
04:00
The same theme is expressed nicely
here in this Sidney Harris cartoon.
here in this Sidney Harris cartoon.
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ovdje u ovoj karikaturi Sidney Harrisa.
04:04
For those of you in the back,
it says here: "Then a miracle occurs.
it says here: "Then a miracle occurs.
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Za vas otraga, ovdje piše "I onda se dogodi čudo.
04:08
I think you need to be more
explicit here in step two."
explicit here in step two."
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Mislim kako moraš biti određeniji ovdje u koraku dva."
04:10
This single slide completely dismantles
the intelligent design arguments.
the intelligent design arguments.
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Ovaj jedan slajd kompletno uništava argumente inteligentnog dizajna.
Nema u tome ništa više osim toga.
04:15
There's nothing more to it than that.
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(Pljesak)
04:17
(Applause)
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Možete reći da se čuda događaju.
04:18
You can say a miracle occurs,
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04:19
it's just that it doesn't explain
anything or offer anything.
anything or offer anything.
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Samo to ne objašnjava ništa.
Ne nudi ništa. Nema ničega za testiranje.
04:22
There's nothing to test.
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Ovo je kraj razgovora za kreatore inteligentnog dizajna.
04:23
It's the end of the conversation
for intelligent design creationists.
for intelligent design creationists.
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Gdje se -- i točno je, znanstvenici ponekad izbace termine da
04:27
And it's true, scientists sometimes throw
terms out as linguistic place fillers --
terms out as linguistic place fillers --
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popune mjesta u rečenici -- tamna energija ili tamna materija ili tako nešto.
04:32
dark energy or dark matter,
something like that --
something like that --
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Dok ne shvatimo što je to, samo ćemo ju zvati tako.
04:34
until we figure out what it is,
we'll call it this.
we'll call it this.
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Ovo je početak uzročnog lanca za znanost.
04:37
It's the beginning of the causal
chain for science.
chain for science.
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Za kreatore inteligentnog dizajna, ovo je kraj lanca.
04:39
For intelligent design creationists,
it's the end of the chain.
it's the end of the chain.
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I opet, možemo se pitati ovo -- što je verovatnije --
04:43
So again, we can ask this:
what's more likely?
what's more likely?
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jesu li NLO-i vanzemaljski svemirski brodovi ili perceptivne kognitivne greške, ili čak lažnjaci?
04:46
Are UFOs alien spaceships, or perceptual
cognitive mistakes, or even fakes?
cognitive mistakes, or even fakes?
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04:50
This is a UFO shot from my house
in Altadena, California,
in Altadena, California,
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Ovo je NLO snimak iz moje kuće u Atladenai, California,
04:53
looking down over Pasadena.
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nadgledajući Pasadenau.
04:55
And if it looks a lot like a Buick
hubcap, it's because it is.
hubcap, it's because it is.
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I ako dosta izgleda kao ratkapa Buicka, to je zato što je.
04:59
You don't even need Photoshop
or high-tech equipment,
or high-tech equipment,
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Ne treba vam ni Photoshop, ne treba vam oprema visoke tehnologije,
ne trebaju vam računala.
05:02
you don't need computers.
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05:03
This was shot with a throwaway
Kodak Instamatic camera.
Kodak Instamatic camera.
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Ovo je snimak s jednokratnom Kodak Instamatik kamerom.
05:06
You just have somebody off on the side
with a hubcap ready to go.
with a hubcap ready to go.
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Jednostavno imate nekog sa strane spremnog da krene s ratkapom.
Kamera spremna -- to je to.
05:09
Camera's ready -- that's it.
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(Smijeh)
05:11
(Laughter)
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Dakle, iako je moguće da je većina ovih stvari lažna
05:13
So, although it's possible
that most of these things are fake
that most of these things are fake
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05:16
or illusions or so on,
and that some of them are real,
and that some of them are real,
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ili iluzije i tako dalje i da su neke od njih stvarne,
vjerojatnije je da su sve lažne, kao i krugovi u polju.
05:20
it's more likely that all of them
are fake, like the crop circles.
are fake, like the crop circles.
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S puno ozbiljnije strane, u cijeloj znanosti tražimo ravnotežu
05:23
On a more serious note, in all of science
we're looking for a balance
we're looking for a balance
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između podataka i teorije.
05:27
between data and theory.
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05:28
In the case of Galileo,
he had two problems
he had two problems
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U Galilejevom slučaju, on je imao dva problema
05:32
when he turned his telescope to Saturn.
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kada je okrenuo svoj teleskop prema Saturnu.
Najprije, nije postojala teorija o planetarnim prstenovima.
05:35
First of all, there was no
theory of planetary rings.
theory of planetary rings.
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I napokon, njegovi podaci su bili zrnati i zbrkani,
05:38
Second of all, his data
was grainy and fuzzy,
was grainy and fuzzy,
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i nije baš mogao shvati što je on to točno gledao.
05:40
and he couldn't quite make out
what he was looking at.
what he was looking at.
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I onda je on napisao da je vidio --
05:43
So he wrote that he had seen --
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05:44
"I have observed that the furthest
planet has three bodies."
planet has three bodies."
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"Opazio sam kako najudaljeniji planet ima tri tijela."
I to je što je on na kraju zaključio da je vidio.
05:48
And this is what he ended up
concluding that he saw.
concluding that he saw.
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Dakle bez teorije o planetarnim prstenovima i sa zrnatim podacima,
05:51
So without a theory of planetary
rings and with only grainy data,
rings and with only grainy data,
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05:54
you can't have a good theory.
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ne možete imati dobru teoriju.
05:56
It wasn't solved until 1655.
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I ovo nije bilo riješeno do 1655.
05:58
This is Christiaan Huygens's book
that catalogs all the mistakes
that catalogs all the mistakes
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Ovo je knjiga Christiaan Huygensa u kojoj je katalogizirao sve greške
06:01
people made trying to figure out
what was going on with Saturn.
what was going on with Saturn.
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koje su ljudi pravili pokušavajući da shvate šta se događa sa Saturnom.
I nije sve dok -- Hojgens nije imao dvije stvari.
06:04
It wasn't till Huygens had two things:
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Imao je dobru teoriju o planetarnim prstenovima i kako solarni sustav radi.
06:06
He had a good theory of planetary rings
and how the solar system operated,
and how the solar system operated,
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06:10
and he had better telescopic,
more fine-grain data
more fine-grain data
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I onda, imao je bolji teleskop, više sitnozrnih podataka
06:13
in which he could figure out that
as the Earth is going around faster --
as the Earth is going around faster --
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u kojima je shvatio da dok Zemlja kruži brže --
po Keplerovim zakonima -- od Saturna, onda se mi uhvatimo s njim.
06:17
according to Kepler's Laws --
than Saturn, then we catch up with it.
than Saturn, then we catch up with it.
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I vidimo kutove prstenova pod različitim kutovima, ovdje.
06:20
And we see the angles of the rings
at different angles, there.
at different angles, there.
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06:23
And that, in fact, turns out to be true.
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I to se, zapravo, ispostavilo kao istinito.
Problemi s teorijom koju imamo
06:26
The problem with having a theory is that
it may be loaded with cognitive biases.
it may be loaded with cognitive biases.
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je da vaša teorija može biti prepuna kognitivnih predrasuda.
Dakle, jedan od problema objašnjavanja zašto ljudi vjeruju u čudne stvari
06:31
So one of the problems of explaining
why people believe weird things
why people believe weird things
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je da mi imamo stvari na jednostavnoj razini.
06:34
is that we have things, on a simple level,
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A onda ću preći na ozbiljnije.
06:36
and then I'll go to more serious ones.
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Na primjer, mi smo skloni vidjeti lica.
06:38
Like, we have a tendency to see faces.
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Ovo je lice na Marsu koje je bilo --
06:40
This is the face on Mars.
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1976., kada je postojao cijeli pokret koji je htio da NASA
06:42
In 1976, where there was a whole movement
to get NASA to photograph that area
to get NASA to photograph that area
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fotografira to područje jer su ljudi mislili
06:46
because people thought this was monumental
architecture made by Martians.
architecture made by Martians.
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da je to monumentalna arhitektura koju su napravili Marsijanci.
Ipak, kako se ispostavlja -- evo ga bliža snimka iz 2001.
06:50
Here's the close-up of it from 2001.
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06:53
If you squint, you can still see the face.
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Ako žmirkate, i dalje možete vidjeti lice.
I kada žmirkate, ono što radite je
06:56
And when you're squinting,
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06:57
you're turning that from fine-grain
to coarse-grain,
to coarse-grain,
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da ga pretvarate iz fino zrnatog u grubo zrnato.
I tako, smanjujete kvalitetu svojih podataka.
07:00
so you're reducing
the quality of your data.
the quality of your data.
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I da vam ja nisam rekao šta da tražite, opet biste vidjeli lice,
07:02
And if I didn't tell you what to look for,
you'd still see the face,
you'd still see the face,
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jer smo isprogramirani evolucijom da vidimo lica.
07:05
because we're programmed
by evolution to see faces.
by evolution to see faces.
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Lica su nam socijalno bitna.
07:08
Faces are important for us socially.
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I naravno, sretna lica.
07:10
And of course, happy faces,
faces of all kinds are easy to see.
faces of all kinds are easy to see.
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Lica svih vrsta je lako vidjeti.
(Smijeh)
07:14
You see the happy face on Mars, there.
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Možete vidjeti sretno lice na Marsu, ovdje.
07:16
(Laughter)
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Kada bi astronomi bili žabe možda bi vidjeli žapca Kermita .
07:17
If astronomers were frogs,
perhaps they'd see Kermit the Frog.
perhaps they'd see Kermit the Frog.
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Vidite li ga tu?
07:20
Do you see him there? Little froggy legs.
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Male žablje noge.
07:22
Or if geologists were elephants?
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Ili da su geolozi slonovi?
07:25
Religious iconography.
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Religijska ikonografija.
07:28
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
Otkriveno od strane pekara is Tennesseea 1996.
07:31
Discovered by a Tennessee baker in 1996.
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07:33
He charged five bucks a head
to come see the nun bun
to come see the nun bun
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Naplaćivao je pet dolara po osobi da vide časnu sestru žemlju
dok ga odvjetnici Majke Tereze nisu natjerali da prestane.
07:36
till he got a cease-and-desist
from Mother Teresa's lawyer.
from Mother Teresa's lawyer.
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Ovo je Naša Gospa od Guadalupe i Naša Gospa od Vatsonvilla, odmah niz ulicu.
07:40
Here's Our Lady of Guadalupe and Our
Lady of Watsonville, just down the street,
Lady of Watsonville, just down the street,
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07:43
or is it up the street from here?
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Ili je to uz ulicu odavde?
07:45
Tree bark is particularly good
because it's nice and grainy, branchy,
because it's nice and grainy, branchy,
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Stablo je naročito dobro jer je lijepo i hrapavo, granato,
07:48
black-and-white splotchy and you can
get the pattern-seeking --
get the pattern-seeking --
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izmrljano crno-bijelom bojom gdje možete tražiti oblike --
ljudi su životinje koje traže oblike.
07:51
humans are pattern-seeking animals.
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07:53
Here's the Virgin Mary on the side
of a glass window in Sao Paulo.
of a glass window in Sao Paulo.
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Evo je Djevica Marija na prozoru u Sao Paulou.
Sad, ovdje se Djevica Marija pojavila na sandviču od sira --
07:57
Here's when the Virgin Mary made
her appearance on a cheese sandwich --
her appearance on a cheese sandwich --
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koji sam zapravo držao u kasinu u Las Vegasu,
08:00
which I got to actually
hold in a Las Vegas casino --
hold in a Las Vegas casino --
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naravno, jer to ovo Amerika.
08:03
of course, this being America.
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(Smijeh)
08:04
(Laughter)
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08:06
This casino paid $28,500
on eBay for the cheese sandwich.
on eBay for the cheese sandwich.
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Ovaj kasino je platio 28,500 dolara na eBayu za ovaj sendvič.
08:10
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
08:12
But who does it really look like?
The Virgin Mary?
The Virgin Mary?
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Ali na koga stvarno sliči, Djevicu Mariju?
(Smijeh)
08:15
(Laughter)
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Ima napućene usne, izgled 1940-ih.
08:17
It has that sort of
puckered lips, 1940s-era look.
puckered lips, 1940s-era look.
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Djevica Marija u Clearwater, Floridi.
08:21
Virgin Mary in Clearwater, Florida.
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08:22
I actually went to see this one.
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Išao sam zapravo vidjeti ovo.
08:24
There was a lot of people there.
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Bilo je puno ljudi tamo -- vjernici su došli da budu u svojim --
08:26
The faithful come in their wheelchairs
and crutches, and so on.
and crutches, and so on.
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kolicima i štakama, i tako dalje.
I otišli smo dolje, istražiti.
08:31
We went down and investigated.
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Da vam dam predstavu o veličini -- to je Dawkins, ja i Nevjerojatni Randi,
08:33
Just to give you a size, that's Dawkins,
me and The Amazing Randi,
me and The Amazing Randi,
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pored ove slike veličine dva, dva i pol kata.
08:36
next to this two,
two and a half story-sized image.
two and a half story-sized image.
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Sve te svijeće, tolike tisuće svijeća koje su ljudi upalili u čast tome.
08:38
All these candles, thousands of candles
people had lit in tribute to this.
people had lit in tribute to this.
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Onda smo otišli iza, samo da vidimo šta se tamo događa,
08:42
So we walked around the backside,
to see what was going on.
to see what was going on.
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kad se ispostavilo da ako imate prskalicu i palmu,
08:45
It turns out wherever there's
a sprinkler head and a palm tree,
a sprinkler head and a palm tree,
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dobijate taj efekt.
08:48
you get the effect.
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08:49
Here's the Virgin Mary on the backside,
which they started to wipe off.
which they started to wipe off.
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Tu je Devica Marija od iza, koju su počeli brisati.
Pretpostavljam da možete imati samo jedno čudo po zgradi.
08:53
I guess you can only have
one miracle per building.
one miracle per building.
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08:55
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
Onda je li to stvarno čudo Marije ili Marge?
08:59
So is it really a miracle of Mary,
or is it a miracle of Marge?
or is it a miracle of Marge?
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(Smijeh)
09:02
(Laughter)
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I završiti ću s još jednim primjerom
09:03
And now I'm going to finish up
with another example of this,
with another example of this,
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sa zvukom -- zvučnim iluzijama.
09:07
with auditory illusions.
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Postoji jedan film, "Bijeli zvuk",
09:10
There's this film, "White Noise,"
with Michael Keaton,
with Michael Keaton,
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s Michaelom Keatonom o mrtvima koji nam govore.
09:12
about the dead talking back to us.
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Usput, taj cijeli posao pričanja s mrtvima, nije neka velika stvar.
09:15
By the way, the whole business of talking
to the dead is not that big a deal.
to the dead is not that big a deal.
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Kako izgleda, svatko to može raditi.
09:19
Anybody can do it, turns out.
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Natjerati mrtve da odgovaraju je ustvari teški dio.
09:20
It's getting the dead to talk
back that's the really hard part.
back that's the really hard part.
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(Smijeh)
09:23
(Laughter)
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Naime, u ovom slučaju te poruke su sakrivene u elektronskom fenomenu.
09:24
In this case, supposedly, these messages
are hidden in electronic phenomena.
are hidden in electronic phenomena.
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09:28
There's a ReverseSpeech.com web page
where I downloaded this stuff.
where I downloaded this stuff.
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Postoji web stranica ReverseSpeech.com (obrnuti govor) s koje sam skinuo ovu stvar.
Evo ga od naprijed -- ovo je najpoznatiji od svih.
09:31
This is the most famous one
of all of these.
of all of these.
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Evo verzija od naprijed jako poznate pjesme.
09:35
Here's the forward version
of the very famous song.
of the very famous song.
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09:37
(Music with lyrics)
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09:39
If there's a bustle in your hedgerow
don't be alarmed now.
don't be alarmed now.
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09:44
It's just a spring clean
for the May Queen.
for the May Queen.
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09:50
Yes, there are two paths you
can go by, but in the long run,
can go by, but in the long run,
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09:56
There's still time to change
the road you're on
the road you're on
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Ooo, ne biste li slušali ovo po cijeli dan?
10:03
Couldn't you just listen to that all day?
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(Smijeh)
U redu, evo ga od unazad,
10:06
All right, here it is backwards,
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10:07
and see if you can hear the hidden
messages that are supposedly in there.
messages that are supposedly in there.
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i vidite možete li naći skrivene poruke koje su navodno tu.
10:12
(Music with unintelligible lyrics)
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10:26
(Lyrics) Satan!
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10:27
(Unintelligible lyrics continue)
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Što ste čuli?
10:41
What did you get?
Audience: Satan!
Audience: Satan!
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(Publika: Sotonu.)
10:43
Satan. OK, at least we got "Satan".
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Sotona? U redu, onda, barem imamo Sotonu.
10:45
Now, I'll prime the auditory
part of your brain
part of your brain
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Sada, pripremit ću vaš auditorni dio mozga
10:47
to tell you what you're supposed
to hear, and then hear it again.
to hear, and then hear it again.
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da vam kaže što biste trebali čuti, i onda to poslušajte opet.
10:50
(Music with lyrics)
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11:17
(Music ends)
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(Smijeh)
11:18
(Laughter)
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(Pljesak)
11:19
(Applause)
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Ne može vam promaći kada vam kažem što je tu.
11:26
You can't miss it
when I tell you what's there.
when I tell you what's there.
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11:28
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
U redu, završit ću s jednom pozitivnom, lijepom, malom pričom
11:32
I'm going to just end
with a positive, nice little story.
with a positive, nice little story.
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o -- Skeptics je neprofitna obrazovna organizacija.
11:36
The Skeptics is a nonprofit
educational organization.
educational organization.
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Uvijek tražimo male, dobre stvari koje ljudi rade.
11:39
We're always looking for little
good things that people do.
good things that people do.
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I u Engleskoj, postoji jedna pop pjevačica.
11:41
And in England, there's a pop singer.
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Vrlo -- jedna od najpopularnijih pjevačica današnjice u Engleskoj, Katie Melua.
11:43
One of the top popular singers
in England today, Katie Melua.
in England today, Katie Melua.
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I ona je napisala prekrasnu pjesmu.
11:47
And she wrote a beautiful song.
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Bila je u prvih pet 2005., nazvana, "Devet milijuna bicikla u Pekingu."
11:49
It was in the top five in 2005, called,
"Nine Million Bicycles in Beijing."
"Nine Million Bicycles in Beijing."
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11:54
It's a love story -- she's sort
of the Norah Jones of the UK --
of the Norah Jones of the UK --
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To je ljubavna priča -- ona je kao Norah Jones Velike Britanije --
o tome kako ona jako voli svog dečka,
11:57
about how she much loves her guy,
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11:59
and compared to nine million
bicycles, and so forth.
bicycles, and so forth.
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i upoređuje ga s devet milijuna bicikla, i tako dalje.
I ima ovaj pasus ovdje.
12:02
And she has this one passage here.
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12:04
(Music)
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♫ Mi smo 12 milijardi svjetlosnih godina od ruba ♫
12:05
(Lyrics) We are 12 billion
light-years from the edge
light-years from the edge
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♫ To je pretpostavka ♫
12:11
That's a guess,
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♫ Nitko ne može ikada reći kako je to istina ♫
12:13
No one can ever say it's true,
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♫ Ali ja znam da ću uvijek biti s tobom ♫
12:17
But I know that I will always be with you.
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Dakle, to je lijepo.
12:22
Michael Shermer: Well, that's nice.
At least she got it close.
At least she got it close.
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Bar je bila blizu.
U Americi bi bilo, "Mi smo 6.000 svjetlosnih godina od ruba."
12:25
In America it'd be,
"We're 6,000 light years from the edge."
"We're 6,000 light years from the edge."
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(Smijeh)
12:28
(Laughter)
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Ali moj prijatelj, Simon Singh, koji se bavi fizikom elementarnih čestica, sada je postao nastavnik znanosti,
12:29
But my friend, Simon Singh, the particle
physicist now turned science educator,
physicist now turned science educator,
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i on je napisao knjigu "Veliki prasak" i tako dalje.
12:33
who wrote the book
"The Big Bang," and so on,
"The Big Bang," and so on,
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On koristi svaku priliku koju ima za promociju dobre znanosti.
12:35
uses every chance he gets
to promote good science.
to promote good science.
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I tako, on je napisao članak u Guardianu o Katienoj pesmi,
12:37
And so he wrote an op-ed piece
in "The Guardian" about Katie's song,
in "The Guardian" about Katie's song,
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u kojoj je rekao, dakle, da mi znamo točno koliko staro, koliko daleko od ruba.
12:41
in which he said, well, we know exactly
how far from the edge.
how far from the edge.
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Znate, to je 12 -- ima 13,7 milijardi svjetlosnih godina, i to nije pretpostavka.
12:46
You know, it's 13.7 billion light years,
and it's not a guess.
and it's not a guess.
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Znamo tačno koliko unutar intervala greške koliko je blizu.
12:50
We know within precise
error bars how close it is.
error bars how close it is.
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I tako, mi možemo reći, iako ne apsolutno točno, da smo vrlo blizu istini.
12:54
So we can say, although not absolutely
true, it's pretty close to being true.
true, it's pretty close to being true.
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I, njegovom zaslugom, Katie ga je pozvala nakon što je njegov članak izašao.
12:58
And, to his credit, Katie called him up
after this op-ed piece came out, and said,
after this op-ed piece came out, and said,
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I rekla, "Vrlo sam posramljena.
13:02
"I'm so embarrassed.
I was in the astronomy club.
I was in the astronomy club.
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Bila sam članica astronomskog kluba, i trebalo sam znati bolje."
13:05
I should've known better."
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I prepravila je pjesmu.
13:06
And she re-cut the song.
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I ja ću završiti s novom verzijom.
13:07
So I will end with the new version.
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♫ Mi smo 13.7 milijardi svjetlosnih godina ♫
13:09
(Music with lyrics)
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13:11
We are 13.7 billion light years
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♫ od ruba promotrivog svemira ♫
13:13
from the edge of the observable universe.
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♫ To je dobra procjena s dobro definiranim intervalima greške ♫
13:17
That's a good estimate
with well-defined error bars.
with well-defined error bars.
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♫ I s dostupnim informacijama ♫
13:20
And with the available information,
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♫ Predviđam da ću uvijek biti s tobom ♫
13:24
I predict that I will always be with you.
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(Pljesak)
13:28
(Laughter)
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Kako je ovo fora?
13:29
How cool is that?
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(Pljesak)
13:30
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michael Shermer - SkepticMichael Shermer debunks myths, superstitions and urban legends -- and explains why we believe them. Along with publishing Skeptic Magazine, he's author of Why People Believe Weird Things and The Mind of the Market.
Why you should listen
As founder and publisher of Skeptic Magazine, Michael Shermer has exposed fallacies behind intelligent design, 9/11 conspiracies, the low-carb craze, alien sightings and other popular beliefs and paranoias. But it's not about debunking for debunking's sake. Shermer defends the notion that we can understand our world better only by matching good theory with good science.
Shermer's work offers cognitive context for our often misguided beliefs: In the absence of sound science, incomplete information can powerfully combine with the power of suggestion (helping us hear Satanic lyrics when "Stairway to Heaven" plays backwards, for example). In fact, a common thread that runs through beliefs of all sorts, he says, is our tendency to convince ourselves: We overvalue the shreds of evidence that support our preferred outcome, and ignore the facts we aren't looking for.
He writes a monthly column for Scientific American, and is an adjunct at Claremont Graduate University and Chapman University. His latest book is The Believing Brain: From Ghosts and Gods to Politics and Conspiracies—How We Construct Beliefs and Reinforce Them as Truths. He is also the author of The Mind of the Market, on evolutionary economics, Why Darwin Matters: Evolution and the Case Against Intelligent Design, and The Science of Good and Evil. And his next book is titled The Moral Arc of Science.
Michael Shermer | Speaker | TED.com