TED2006
Michael Shermer: Why people believe weird things
Michael Shermer 谈奇异的信念
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为什么人们会看到圣母玛利亚在三明治上，或是会听到"天堂之梯"那有魔力的歌词呢？利用影片跟音乐，怀疑论者协会理事长 Michael Shermer 告诉我们要如何说服自己去相信、细看事实。
Michael Shermer - Skeptic
Michael Shermer debunks myths, superstitions and urban legends -- and explains why we believe them. Along with publishing Skeptic Magazine, he's author of Why People Believe Weird Things and The Mind of the Market. Full bio
Michael Shermer debunks myths, superstitions and urban legends -- and explains why we believe them. Along with publishing Skeptic Magazine, he's author of Why People Believe Weird Things and The Mind of the Market. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:24
I'm Michael Shermer,
director of the Skeptics Society,
director of the Skeptics Society,
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嗨！我是 Michael Shermer 怀疑论者协会理事长
怀疑论者杂志的发行人。
00:27
publisher of "Skeptic" magazine.
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我们调查声称超自然伪科学的现象，
00:28
We investigate claims of the paranormal,
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边缘科学、邪教和种种主张 -
00:30
pseudo-science, fringe groups and cults,
and claims of all kinds between,
and claims of all kinds between,
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00:34
science and pseudo-science
and non-science and junk science,
and non-science and junk science,
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科学和伪科学和非科学和垃圾科学，
巫毒科学、病态科学、坏科学、非科学，
00:37
voodoo science, pathological science,
bad science, non-science,
bad science, non-science,
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00:40
and plain old non-sense.
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以及无稽之谈。
00:42
And unless you've been on Mars recently,
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除非你最近去过火星，
00:44
you know there's a lot of that out there.
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你知道世上有许多这些东西，
00:46
Some people call us debunkers,
which is kind of a negative term.
which is kind of a negative term.
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所以，人人称我们为拆穿者 虽然这称呼有点负面。
00:49
But let's face it, there's a lot of bunk.
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但是，承认吧！确实有太多胡说八道了。
我们就像是警察局的诈骗小组进行扫除工作，
00:51
We are like the bunko squads
of the police departments out there --
of the police departments out there --
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00:55
well, we're sort of like
the Ralph Naders of bad ideas,
the Ralph Naders of bad ideas,
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我们就像是侦办坏主意的拉尔夫纳德检察官。
00:58
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
尝试将坏主意换成好的。
01:00
trying to replace bad ideas
with good ideas.
with good ideas.
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01:02
I'll show you an example of a bad idea.
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让我给你们看看坏主意长什么样子
01:04
I brought this with me,
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我带来了这个
01:05
this was given to us
by NBC Dateline to test.
by NBC Dateline to test.
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NBC晨间节目把这个给我们做测试
01:09
It's produced by the Quadro
Corporation of West Virginia.
Corporation of West Virginia.
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由西弗吉尼亚州的Quadro公司制造
称为Quadro2000探测棒。
01:13
It's called the Quadro 2000 Dowser Rod.
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(笑声)
01:16
(Laughter)
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01:17
This was being sold to high-school
administrators for $900 apiece.
administrators for $900 apiece.
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卖给高中职员 一个900块美金
01:22
It's a piece of plastic with a Radio
Shack antenna attached to it.
Shack antenna attached to it.
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由一片塑料连接RadioShack牌天线所组成。
你可以用它探测任何东西 但是这一款，是特别为
01:27
You could dowse for all sorts of things,
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01:29
but this particular one was built
to dowse for marijuana
to dowse for marijuana
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探测学生置物柜里的大麻所设计的。
01:32
in students' lockers.
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01:33
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
使用方法是你走进走廊一路侦测，看天线是否
01:36
So the way it works
is you go down the hallway,
is you go down the hallway,
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01:39
and you see if it tilts
toward a particular locker,
toward a particular locker,
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会指向某个置物柜，然后，你就可以打开来检查。
01:42
and then you open the locker.
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所以，看起来就像这样。
01:44
So it looks something like this.
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我秀给你们看。
01:45
I'll show you.
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01:48
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
01:49
Well, it has kind of a right-leaning bias.
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不，噢！它似乎会偏右边。
所以，嗯！这是科学，所以我们来做个核对实验。
01:53
Well, this is science,
so we'll do a controlled experiment.
so we'll do a controlled experiment.
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从这边走应该就会朝向这边了。
01:56
It'll go this way for sure.
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(笑声)
01:57
(Laughter)
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02:01
Sir, do you want to empty
your pockets, please, sir?
your pockets, please, sir?
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先生，可以请您掏出您的口袋吗？先生。
(笑声)
02:04
(Laughter)
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所以，问题是，这真的能找出学生置物柜里藏的大麻吗？
02:06
So the question was, can it actually
find marijuana in students' lockers?
find marijuana in students' lockers?
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答案是，如果你开得够多，就找得出来。
02:09
And the answer is,
if you open enough of them, yes.
if you open enough of them, yes.
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(笑声)
02:12
(Laughter)
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(掌声)
02:13
(Applause)
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02:14
But in science, we have to keep track
of the misses, not just the hits.
of the misses, not just the hits.
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但是，在科学上我们必须记录那些不准的，不能只记准的。
这也许就是我这简短演讲的重点，那就是
02:18
And that's probably the key lesson
to my short talk here:
to my short talk here:
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02:21
This is how psychics work, astrologers,
tarot card readers and so on.
tarot card readers and so on.
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这就是通灵者占星家、塔罗牌师等等的运作原理。
人们会记住准的，忘记不准的。
02:25
People remember the hits
and forget the misses.
and forget the misses.
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在科学上，我们必须保存完整的数据。
02:27
In science, we keep the whole database,
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检视准确的数据是否会明显地
02:29
and look to see if the number
of hits somehow stands out
of hits somehow stands out
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从全部可预测的机率数字当中突显出来。
02:32
from the total number
you'd expect by chance.
you'd expect by chance.
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在这个例子中，我们测试了这仪器。
02:34
In this case, we tested it.
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02:35
We had two opaque boxes:
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我们准备两个不透光的箱子，
02:37
one with government-approved THC
marijuana, and one with nothing.
marijuana, and one with nothing.
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一个藏有政府认证含有四氢大麻酚的大麻，另一个是空的，
准确度是一半一半，
02:40
And it got it 50 percent of the time --
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02:42
(Laughter)
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跟你可预测的丢铜板的机率法则完全一样。
02:43
which is exactly what you'd expect
with a coin-flip model.
with a coin-flip model.
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02:46
So that's just a fun little example
here of the sorts of things we do.
here of the sorts of things we do.
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所以，这只是个有趣的小例子告诉你我们，工作的性质。
怀疑论者杂志是个季刊，
02:50
"Skeptic" is the quarterly publication.
Each one has a particular theme.
Each one has a particular theme.
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每季都有个主题，例如这一个是关于未来智慧的，
02:54
This one is on the future of intelligence.
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人是愈来愈聪明？还是愈来愈笨？
02:56
Are people getting smarter or dumber?
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因为工作的关系，我自己对这有个人的见解。
02:58
I have an opinion of this myself
because of the business I'm in,
because of the business I'm in,
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但事实上，结果显示，人是愈来愈聪明的。
03:01
but in fact, people, it turns out,
are getting smarter.
are getting smarter.
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每十年提升3个IQ数值。
03:03
Three IQ points per 10 years, going up.
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03:06
Sort of an interesting thing.
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这点蛮有趣的。
03:08
With science, don't think of skepticism
as a thing, or science as a thing.
as a thing, or science as a thing.
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讲科学不能把怀疑论或甚至是科学当作一样东西。
像是在问科学和宗教可并立吗？
03:12
Are science and religion compatible?
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03:13
It's like, are science
and plumbing compatible?
and plumbing compatible?
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像是在问科学与水电并立吗？
这些它们其实就是两种不同的东西。
03:16
They're just two different things.
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03:17
Science is not a thing. It's a verb.
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科学不是东西，而是动词，
03:19
It's a way of thinking about things.
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是思考事物的方式。
03:21
It's a way of looking for natural
explanations for all phenomena.
explanations for all phenomena.
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是为所有现象寻找自然的解释的方法。
我的意思是，
03:24
I mean, what's more likely:
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03:25
that extraterrestrial intelligences
or multi-dimensional beings
or multi-dimensional beings
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外星生物和多重次元的生灵横跨
03:29
travel across vast distances
of interstellar space
of interstellar space
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星际空间浩瀚的距离，留下麦田圈，
03:31
to leave a crop circle in Farmer Bob's
field in Puckerbrush, Kansas
field in Puckerbrush, Kansas
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在堪萨斯州帕克布莱西的鲍伯农场上，宣传我们的网站skeptic.com的可能性较大，
03:34
to promote skeptic.com, our web page?
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还是某怀疑论者杂志的读者利用Photoshop制作出来的可能性大呢？
03:36
Or is it more likely that a reader
of "Skeptic" did this with Photoshop?
of "Skeptic" did this with Photoshop?
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在所有这些案例里头，我们都必须问，
03:41
And in all cases we have to ask --
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(笑声)
03:42
(Laughter)
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03:44
What's the more likely explanation?
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最有可能的解释是什么？
03:46
Before we say something
is out of this world,
is out of this world,
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在我们说有些东西来自外世界之前，
我们首先应该查明它并不存在于这个世界。
03:48
we should first make sure
that it's not in this world.
that it's not in this world.
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哪个可能性较高，
03:51
What's more likely:
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阿诺德·施瓦辛格有外星人帮忙竞选州长呢？
03:52
that Arnold had extraterrestrial help
in his run for the governorship,
in his run for the governorship,
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或是世界新闻周刊捏造的呢？
03:56
or that the "World Weekly News"
makes stuff up?
makes stuff up?
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03:58
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
其中同样的主题，却在辛尼海罗斯的卡通中，
04:00
The same theme is expressed nicely
here in this Sidney Harris cartoon.
here in this Sidney Harris cartoon.
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被诠释得很不错。
04:04
For those of you in the back,
it says here: "Then a miracle occurs.
it says here: "Then a miracle occurs.
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给坐在后排的观众，这上面说，"然后奇迹发生，
04:08
I think you need to be more
explicit here in step two."
explicit here in step two."
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我觉得你应该把第二步骤说得更详细一点。"
04:10
This single slide completely dismantles
the intelligent design arguments.
the intelligent design arguments.
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这一张投影片完全拆散了智能设计论证。
再清楚也不过了。
04:15
There's nothing more to it than that.
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(掌声)
04:17
(Applause)
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你可以说奇迹发生。
04:18
You can say a miracle occurs,
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04:19
it's just that it doesn't explain
anything or offer anything.
anything or offer anything.
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只是这不能解释任何事情。
不能提供什么。没有东西可以测试。
04:22
There's nothing to test.
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这是智慧设计创意工作者的谈话终点。
04:23
It's the end of the conversation
for intelligent design creationists.
for intelligent design creationists.
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反之，确实科学家有时会丢出一些名词当作
04:27
And it's true, scientists sometimes throw
terms out as linguistic place fillers --
terms out as linguistic place fillers --
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语言学的填空词--暗能量或暗物质或其它类似的等等。
04:32
dark energy or dark matter,
something like that --
something like that --
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直到我们明白这是什么之前，我们就暂时称它为这个，
04:34
until we figure out what it is,
we'll call it this.
we'll call it this.
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对科学而言这是因果连结链的开始。
04:37
It's the beginning of the causal
chain for science.
chain for science.
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对智慧设计创意工作者而言，则是因果连结链的末端。
04:39
For intelligent design creationists,
it's the end of the chain.
it's the end of the chain.
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我们可以再次询问，哪个可能性较高，
04:43
So again, we can ask this:
what's more likely?
what's more likely?
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幽浮比较可能是外星人的宇宙飞船或是感官认知的错误或甚至是假的。
04:46
Are UFOs alien spaceships, or perceptual
cognitive mistakes, or even fakes?
cognitive mistakes, or even fakes?
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04:50
This is a UFO shot from my house
in Altadena, California,
in Altadena, California,
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这是我从加州犹它旦市家中拍到的幽浮照片，
04:53
looking down over Pasadena.
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向下俯瞰帕萨迪纳市。
04:55
And if it looks a lot like a Buick
hubcap, it's because it is.
hubcap, it's because it is.
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如果这看起来像别克汽车的轮盖，那是因为它根本就是。
04:59
You don't even need Photoshop
or high-tech equipment,
or high-tech equipment,
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你甚至不需要Photoshop，不需要高科技器材，
你不需要计算机，
05:02
you don't need computers.
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05:03
This was shot with a throwaway
Kodak Instamatic camera.
Kodak Instamatic camera.
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这是用柯达Instamatic抛弃型相机拍的。
05:06
You just have somebody off on the side
with a hubcap ready to go.
with a hubcap ready to go.
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你只需要有人在旁边准备掷出轮盖就可以了。
相机准备好--就这么简单。
05:09
Camera's ready -- that's it.
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(笑声)
05:11
(Laughter)
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虽然，大部份这些东西都有可能是假的，
05:13
So, although it's possible
that most of these things are fake
that most of these things are fake
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05:16
or illusions or so on,
and that some of them are real,
and that some of them are real,
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或是幻象等等，但有些是真的。
更有可能全部都是假的，就像麦田圈一样。
05:20
it's more likely that all of them
are fake, like the crop circles.
are fake, like the crop circles.
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说正经的，在所有科学里，我们都在寻找一种平衡，
05:23
On a more serious note, in all of science
we're looking for a balance
we're looking for a balance
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介于数据与理论之间。
05:27
between data and theory.
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05:28
In the case of Galileo,
he had two problems
he had two problems
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以伽利略来说，他有两个困难，
05:32
when he turned his telescope to Saturn.
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当他用望远镜观察土星时，
首先，那时没有行星环的理论，
05:35
First of all, there was no
theory of planetary rings.
theory of planetary rings.
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第二，他的数据是粗糙模糊的，
05:38
Second of all, his data
was grainy and fuzzy,
was grainy and fuzzy,
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而且，他并不太了解自己正在看的是什么，
05:40
and he couldn't quite make out
what he was looking at.
what he was looking at.
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所以他就写下他看到了。
05:43
So he wrote that he had seen --
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05:44
"I have observed that the furthest
planet has three bodies."
planet has three bodies."
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"我观察到最远的星球有三个形体"。
而这是他最后对自己的观察所做的结论。
05:48
And this is what he ended up
concluding that he saw.
concluding that he saw.
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没有行星环的理论且凭靠粗糙的资料，
05:51
So without a theory of planetary
rings and with only grainy data,
rings and with only grainy data,
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05:54
you can't have a good theory.
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你不可能建构很好的理论。
05:56
It wasn't solved until 1655.
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一直到1655年才得到解答，
05:58
This is Christiaan Huygens's book
that catalogs all the mistakes
that catalogs all the mistakes
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惠更斯的书中记载了所有人在尝试了解，
06:01
people made trying to figure out
what was going on with Saturn.
what was going on with Saturn.
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土星时所犯的错误。
但是一直到惠更斯有了两样东西，
06:04
It wasn't till Huygens had two things:
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好的行星环理论和了解太阳系如何运转。
06:06
He had a good theory of planetary rings
and how the solar system operated,
and how the solar system operated,
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06:10
and he had better telescopic,
more fine-grain data
more fine-grain data
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而且，当时他有更好的望远镜及更细微的数据，
06:13
in which he could figure out that
as the Earth is going around faster --
as the Earth is going around faster --
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从中他了解到当地球转得比土星更快速，
根据克卜勒三大定律，然后我们会追上它。
06:17
according to Kepler's Laws --
than Saturn, then we catch up with it.
than Saturn, then we catch up with it.
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我们从不同的角度，看见行星环不同的角度。
06:20
And we see the angles of the rings
at different angles, there.
at different angles, there.
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06:23
And that, in fact, turns out to be true.
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而事实上，结果真是如此。
有理论的问题是，
06:26
The problem with having a theory is that
it may be loaded with cognitive biases.
it may be loaded with cognitive biases.
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你的理论可能会充满认知偏见。
所以，要解释人为何会相信奇异现象的困难之一，
06:31
So one of the problems of explaining
why people believe weird things
why people believe weird things
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就是我们会简化事物。
06:34
is that we have things, on a simple level,
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然后，我之后会再说比较多的例子。
06:36
and then I'll go to more serious ones.
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例如，我们会倾向看见脸孔，
06:38
Like, we have a tendency to see faces.
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这些是在火星上的脸，
06:40
This is the face on Mars.
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1976年有很多运动要求美国太空总署
06:42
In 1976, where there was a whole movement
to get NASA to photograph that area
to get NASA to photograph that area
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为这些地区拍摄照片，因为人们认为
06:46
because people thought this was monumental
architecture made by Martians.
architecture made by Martians.
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这些是火星人盖的纪念建筑。
后来发现这是2001年所拍摄的近照。
06:50
Here's the close-up of it from 2001.
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06:53
If you squint, you can still see the face.
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如果你斜视仍可以看见脸，
当你斜视时，你就是在
06:56
And when you're squinting,
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06:57
you're turning that from fine-grain
to coarse-grain,
to coarse-grain,
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将影像从微粒变成粗粒的。
也就是说你在降低数据的质量。
07:00
so you're reducing
the quality of your data.
the quality of your data.
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如果我不告诉你，该看什么，你还是会看见脸孔，
07:02
And if I didn't tell you what to look for,
you'd still see the face,
you'd still see the face,
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因为进化将我们设计成，会看见脸孔的生物。
07:05
because we're programmed
by evolution to see faces.
by evolution to see faces.
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在社交上，脸孔对我们很重要，
07:08
Faces are important for us socially.
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当然还有笑脸，
07:10
And of course, happy faces,
faces of all kinds are easy to see.
faces of all kinds are easy to see.
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各种脸孔都很容易被看见。
(笑声)
07:14
You see the happy face on Mars, there.
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你可以看见火星上的笑脸在上面。
07:16
(Laughter)
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如果天文学家是青蛙的话，那么他们可能就会看见芝麻街的青蛙柯密特。
07:17
If astronomers were frogs,
perhaps they'd see Kermit the Frog.
perhaps they'd see Kermit the Frog.
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看见了吗？
07:20
Do you see him there? Little froggy legs.
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小小的青蛙脚。
07:22
Or if geologists were elephants?
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或是如果考古学家是大象呢？
07:25
Religious iconography.
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宗教肖像。
07:28
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
1996年由田纳西的一位面包师傅所发现，
07:31
Discovered by a Tennessee baker in 1996.
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07:33
He charged five bucks a head
to come see the nun bun
to come see the nun bun
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他收一个人头五块钱来让人看这块修女面包，
直到他收到特瑞莎修女的律师寄来的禁止通知函为止。
07:36
till he got a cease-and-desist
from Mother Teresa's lawyer.
from Mother Teresa's lawyer.
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这是在下一条街的瓜达露佩圣母和华森维尔圣母。
07:40
Here's Our Lady of Guadalupe and Our
Lady of Watsonville, just down the street,
Lady of Watsonville, just down the street,
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07:43
or is it up the street from here?
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或是从这里过去的上一条街？
07:45
Tree bark is particularly good
because it's nice and grainy, branchy,
because it's nice and grainy, branchy,
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树皮的效果特别好，因为粗糙且枝繁，
07:48
black-and-white splotchy and you can
get the pattern-seeking --
get the pattern-seeking --
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黑白有污点，然后你就可以寻找图样，
人类是图样找寻的动物。
07:51
humans are pattern-seeking animals.
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07:53
Here's the Virgin Mary on the side
of a glass window in Sao Paulo.
of a glass window in Sao Paulo.
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这是在圣保罗一个玻璃窗边上的圣母玛利亚。
而这是圣母玛利亚显灵在起司三明治上，
07:57
Here's when the Virgin Mary made
her appearance on a cheese sandwich --
her appearance on a cheese sandwich --
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实际上我在拉斯韦加斯赌场亲手拿过。
08:00
which I got to actually
hold in a Las Vegas casino --
hold in a Las Vegas casino --
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当然因为这里是美国。
08:03
of course, this being America.
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(笑声)
08:04
(Laughter)
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08:06
This casino paid $28,500
on eBay for the cheese sandwich.
on eBay for the cheese sandwich.
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这间赌场在eBay上花了28500美金买下这起司三明治。
08:10
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
08:12
But who does it really look like?
The Virgin Mary?
The Virgin Mary?
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但是这到底看起来像谁呢？圣母玛利亚吗？
(笑声)
08:15
(Laughter)
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有那种40年代噘嘴的样子，
08:17
It has that sort of
puckered lips, 1940s-era look.
puckered lips, 1940s-era look.
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圣母玛利亚在佛罗里达州的清水市。
08:21
Virgin Mary in Clearwater, Florida.
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08:22
I actually went to see this one.
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我实际去看过这个。
08:24
There was a lot of people there.
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那里聚集了许多人--虔诚的信徒来到这里，
08:26
The faithful come in their wheelchairs
and crutches, and so on.
and crutches, and so on.
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有坐轮椅的、有撑拐的等等，
我们到那里去做了调查。
08:31
We went down and investigated.
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顺便让你知道，我们的人力，那是道金斯、我和令人惊奇的瑞迪。
08:33
Just to give you a size, that's Dawkins,
me and The Amazing Randi,
me and The Amazing Randi,
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在两个两个半层楼高的影像旁边，
08:36
next to this two,
two and a half story-sized image.
two and a half story-sized image.
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所有的蜡烛人们，点燃成千上万的蜡烛来赞颂这景象。
08:38
All these candles, thousands of candles
people had lit in tribute to this.
people had lit in tribute to this.
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所以我们就绕到背后去看看，这到底是怎么回事。
08:42
So we walked around the backside,
to see what was going on.
to see what was going on.
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结果发现只要有洒水喷头和棕榈树的地方，
08:45
It turns out wherever there's
a sprinkler head and a palm tree,
a sprinkler head and a palm tree,
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你就会看到这样的效果。
08:48
you get the effect.
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08:49
Here's the Virgin Mary on the backside,
which they started to wipe off.
which they started to wipe off.
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这就是在后面，他们已经开始在擦拭的圣母玛利亚。
我想一栋建筑物顶多只能有一个奇迹吧！
08:53
I guess you can only have
one miracle per building.
one miracle per building.
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08:55
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
这到底是圣母玛利亚的奇迹？还是玛吉的奇迹？
08:59
So is it really a miracle of Mary,
or is it a miracle of Marge?
or is it a miracle of Marge?
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(笑声)
09:02
(Laughter)
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接下来我想要以另一个类似的例子来作为结束，
09:03
And now I'm going to finish up
with another example of this,
with another example of this,
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用听--听觉幻象。
09:07
with auditory illusions.
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有部电影叫鬼讯号，
09:10
There's this film, "White Noise,"
with Michael Keaton,
with Michael Keaton,
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由麦可基顿主演，关于亡者回应我们的话。
09:12
about the dead talking back to us.
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顺便说一下，跟亡者说话并没有什么了不起，
09:15
By the way, the whole business of talking
to the dead is not that big a deal.
to the dead is not that big a deal.
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结论是任何人都做得到。
09:19
Anybody can do it, turns out.
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叫亡者响应我们的话，才是真正难的地方。
09:20
It's getting the dead to talk
back that's the really hard part.
back that's the really hard part.
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(笑声)
09:23
(Laughter)
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这个例子，在电子现象当中藏有一些讯息，
09:24
In this case, supposedly, these messages
are hidden in electronic phenomena.
are hidden in electronic phenomena.
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09:28
There's a ReverseSpeech.com web page
where I downloaded this stuff.
where I downloaded this stuff.
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我从ReverseSpeech.com的网站上下载了这个，
这是向前转的，也是最有名的一段。
09:31
This is the most famous one
of all of these.
of all of these.
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这是这首非常有名的歌曲的正常版本。
09:35
Here's the forward version
of the very famous song.
of the very famous song.
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09:37
(Music with lyrics)
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09:39
If there's a bustle in your hedgerow
don't be alarmed now.
don't be alarmed now.
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09:44
It's just a spring clean
for the May Queen.
for the May Queen.
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09:50
Yes, there are two paths you
can go by, but in the long run,
can go by, but in the long run,
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09:56
There's still time to change
the road you're on
the road you're on
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天啊！这音乐可以让人听一整天。
10:03
Couldn't you just listen to that all day?
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(笑声)
好的，接下来是倒转的版本。
10:06
All right, here it is backwards,
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10:07
and see if you can hear the hidden
messages that are supposedly in there.
messages that are supposedly in there.
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看看你是否听得出里面应该藏有的讯息。
10:12
(Music with unintelligible lyrics)
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10:26
(Lyrics) Satan!
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10:27
(Unintelligible lyrics continue)
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你听到了什么？
10:41
What did you get?
Audience: Satan!
Audience: Satan!
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(听众：撒旦)
10:43
Satan. OK, at least we got "Satan".
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麦可‧薛莫：撒旦，好，至少我们听出了撒旦。
10:45
Now, I'll prime the auditory
part of your brain
part of your brain
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现在我将先替你头脑的听力部分做准备，
10:47
to tell you what you're supposed
to hear, and then hear it again.
to hear, and then hear it again.
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告诉你，应该听见的内容然后再听一遍。
10:50
(Music with lyrics)
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11:17
(Music ends)
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(笑声)
11:18
(Laughter)
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(掌声)
11:19
(Applause)
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我告诉你那里有什么之后，你就不可能会错过。
11:26
You can't miss it
when I tell you what's there.
when I tell you what's there.
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11:28
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
好，最后我将以一个正面温馨的小故事做为结束。
11:32
I'm going to just end
with a positive, nice little story.
with a positive, nice little story.
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关于怀疑论者协会是非营利的教育组织。
11:36
The Skeptics is a nonprofit
educational organization.
educational organization.
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我们总是在寻找人们所做的小小的好事。
11:39
We're always looking for little
good things that people do.
good things that people do.
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在英国有个流行歌手，
11:41
And in England, there's a pop singer.
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2009
是当下英国最顶尖的流行歌手凯特玛露。
11:43
One of the top popular singers
in England today, Katie Melua.
in England today, Katie Melua.
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她写了一首很美的歌。
11:47
And she wrote a beautiful song.
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2005年排名前五名歌名，叫做"北京有九百万辆脚踏车"。
11:49
It was in the top five in 2005, called,
"Nine Million Bicycles in Beijing."
"Nine Million Bicycles in Beijing."
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11:54
It's a love story -- she's sort
of the Norah Jones of the UK --
of the Norah Jones of the UK --
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描写一个爱情故事--她就像是英国的诺拉琼丝。
关于她有多爱她的男人，
11:57
about how she much loves her guy,
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11:59
and compared to nine million
bicycles, and so forth.
bicycles, and so forth.
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与九百万辆脚踏车做比较等等。
其中有一段歌词
12:02
And she has this one passage here.
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12:04
(Music)
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♫我们距离宇宙边缘120亿 光年♫
12:05
(Lyrics) We are 12 billion
light-years from the edge
light-years from the edge
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♫这是个猜想♫
12:11
That's a guess,
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♫从没有人能说这是真的♫
12:13
No one can ever say it's true,
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♫但我确切知道我会永远伴着你♫
12:17
But I know that I will always be with you.
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这很动人。
12:22
Michael Shermer: Well, that's nice.
At least she got it close.
At least she got it close.
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至少她猜得很接近。
在美国，就会变成，"我们距离宇宙边缘6000光年"。
12:25
In America it'd be,
"We're 6,000 light years from the edge."
"We're 6,000 light years from the edge."
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(笑声)
12:28
(Laughter)
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但是，我的朋友赛门辛是粒子物理学家，现在成了科学教育家。
12:29
But my friend, Simon Singh, the particle
physicist now turned science educator,
physicist now turned science educator,
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写了"大爆炸"这本书以及其它等等。
12:33
who wrote the book
"The Big Bang," and so on,
"The Big Bang," and so on,
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他总是抓住每个可以倡导好科学的机会，
12:35
uses every chance he gets
to promote good science.
to promote good science.
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于是，他就在卫报上写了一篇专栏关于凯特的歌。
12:37
And so he wrote an op-ed piece
in "The Guardian" about Katie's song,
in "The Guardian" about Katie's song,
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当中，他指出我们确切知道宇宙边缘有多老及离我们多远，
12:41
in which he said, well, we know exactly
how far from the edge.
how far from the edge.
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就是12--137亿光年，不是用猜的。
12:46
You know, it's 13.7 billion light years,
and it's not a guess.
and it's not a guess.
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我们知道在精准的误差杠之内，宇宙边缘离我们多近。
12:50
We know within precise
error bars how close it is.
error bars how close it is.
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所以，我们可以说，虽然不是绝对正确但已非常接近。
12:54
So we can say, although not absolutely
true, it's pretty close to being true.
true, it's pretty close to being true.
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为了赞扬他，凯特在专栏上报之后打电话给他，
12:58
And, to his credit, Katie called him up
after this op-ed piece came out, and said,
after this op-ed piece came out, and said,
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然后说："我真是惭愧。
13:02
"I'm so embarrassed.
I was in the astronomy club.
I was in the astronomy club.
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我曾经是天文学社团的团员，我应该最清楚不过了。"
13:05
I should've known better."
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所以她就重录了这一段。
13:06
And she re-cut the song.
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而我也将以这新版本结束这演讲。
13:07
So I will end with the new version.
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♫我们距离可观察的宇宙边缘♫
13:09
(Music with lyrics)
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13:11
We are 13.7 billion light years
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♫137亿光年 ♫
13:13
from the edge of the observable universe.
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♫这是在精密误差杠内产出的可靠估计♫
13:17
That's a good estimate
with well-defined error bars.
with well-defined error bars.
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♫从左证的资料中♫
13:20
And with the available information,
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♫我可预测我将会永远伴着你♫
13:24
I predict that I will always be with you.
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(掌声)
13:28
(Laughter)
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很酷吧！
13:29
How cool is that?
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(掌声)
13:30
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michael Shermer - SkepticMichael Shermer debunks myths, superstitions and urban legends -- and explains why we believe them. Along with publishing Skeptic Magazine, he's author of Why People Believe Weird Things and The Mind of the Market.
Why you should listen
As founder and publisher of Skeptic Magazine, Michael Shermer has exposed fallacies behind intelligent design, 9/11 conspiracies, the low-carb craze, alien sightings and other popular beliefs and paranoias. But it's not about debunking for debunking's sake. Shermer defends the notion that we can understand our world better only by matching good theory with good science.
Shermer's work offers cognitive context for our often misguided beliefs: In the absence of sound science, incomplete information can powerfully combine with the power of suggestion (helping us hear Satanic lyrics when "Stairway to Heaven" plays backwards, for example). In fact, a common thread that runs through beliefs of all sorts, he says, is our tendency to convince ourselves: We overvalue the shreds of evidence that support our preferred outcome, and ignore the facts we aren't looking for.
He writes a monthly column for Scientific American, and is an adjunct at Claremont Graduate University and Chapman University. His latest book is The Believing Brain: From Ghosts and Gods to Politics and Conspiracies—How We Construct Beliefs and Reinforce Them as Truths. He is also the author of The Mind of the Market, on evolutionary economics, Why Darwin Matters: Evolution and the Case Against Intelligent Design, and The Science of Good and Evil. And his next book is titled The Moral Arc of Science.
Michael Shermer | Speaker | TED.com