TED2006
Michael Shermer: Why people believe weird things
Michael Shermer o verovanju v čudne stvari
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Zakaj ljudje vidijo Devico Marijo na sirovem sendviču ali slišijo hudičeve besede v pesmi "Stopnice do nebes"? S pomočjo videoposnetkov in glasbe nam skeptični Michael Shermer pokaže, kako se prepričamo, da verjamemo, in pri tem spregledamo dejstva.
Michael Shermer - Skeptic
Michael Shermer debunks myths, superstitions and urban legends -- and explains why we believe them. Along with publishing Skeptic Magazine, he's author of Why People Believe Weird Things and The Mind of the Market. Full bio
Michael Shermer debunks myths, superstitions and urban legends -- and explains why we believe them. Along with publishing Skeptic Magazine, he's author of Why People Believe Weird Things and The Mind of the Market. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:24
I'm Michael Shermer,
director of the Skeptics Society,
director of the Skeptics Society,
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Sem Michael Shermer, direktor organizacije Skeptična družba
in založnik revije Skeptik.
00:27
publisher of "Skeptic" magazine.
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Raziskujemo paranormalnost, psevdo-znanost,
00:28
We investigate claims of the paranormal,
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obrobne skupine in kulte ter take in drugačne trditve;
00:30
pseudo-science, fringe groups and cults,
and claims of all kinds between,
and claims of all kinds between,
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00:34
science and pseudo-science
and non-science and junk science,
and non-science and junk science,
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znanost in psevdo-znanost, ne-znanost, junk-znanost,
vudu-znanost, patološko znanost, slabo znanost
00:37
voodoo science, pathological science,
bad science, non-science,
bad science, non-science,
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00:40
and plain old non-sense.
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in preproste starodavne bedarije.
00:42
And unless you've been on Mars recently,
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Razen če niste ravno prišli z Marsa,
00:44
you know there's a lot of that out there.
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veste, da je veliko teh znanosti na svetu.
00:46
Some people call us debunkers,
which is kind of a negative term.
which is kind of a negative term.
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Ljudje nam pravijo razbijalci bedarij, kar je negativen izraz.
00:49
But let's face it, there's a lot of bunk.
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Soočimo se z resnico - obstaja veliko bedarij.
Mi smo kot policijski preiskovalci bedarij.
00:51
We are like the bunko squads
of the police departments out there --
of the police departments out there --
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00:55
well, we're sort of like
the Ralph Naders of bad ideas,
the Ralph Naders of bad ideas,
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Mi smo kot Ralph Naders s slabimi idejami.
00:58
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
Poskušamo zamenjati slabe ideje z dobrimi.
01:00
trying to replace bad ideas
with good ideas.
with good ideas.
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01:02
I'll show you an example of a bad idea.
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Pokazal vam bom primer slabe ideje.
01:04
I brought this with me,
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To sem prinesel s sabo.
01:05
this was given to us
by NBC Dateline to test.
by NBC Dateline to test.
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To smo dobili za testiranje od NBC Dateline.
01:09
It's produced by the Quadro
Corporation of West Virginia.
Corporation of West Virginia.
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Izdelala ga je korporacija Quadro iz Zahodne Virginije.
To je detektorska palica Quadro 2000.
01:13
It's called the Quadro 2000 Dowser Rod.
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(smeh)
01:16
(Laughter)
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01:17
This was being sold to high-school
administrators for $900 apiece.
administrators for $900 apiece.
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Palice so prodali srednjim šolam za 900 dolarjev na kos.
01:22
It's a piece of plastic with a Radio
Shack antenna attached to it.
Shack antenna attached to it.
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To je kos plastike z anteno.
S palico bi lahko iskal karkoli, a ta palica
01:27
You could dowse for all sorts of things,
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01:29
but this particular one was built
to dowse for marijuana
to dowse for marijuana
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je bila izdelana za odkrivanje marihuane v šolskih omaricah.
01:32
in students' lockers.
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01:33
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
Deluje tako. S palico hodiš med omaricami,
01:36
So the way it works
is you go down the hallway,
is you go down the hallway,
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01:39
and you see if it tilts
toward a particular locker,
toward a particular locker,
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če se palica obrne proti določeni omarici, odpreš omarico.
01:42
and then you open the locker.
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To bi izgledalo tako.
01:44
So it looks something like this.
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Pokazal vam bom.
01:45
I'll show you.
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01:48
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
01:49
Well, it has kind of a right-leaning bias.
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Malo se nagiba v desno...
To je znanost. Naredili bomo kontroliran preizkus.
01:53
Well, this is science,
so we'll do a controlled experiment.
so we'll do a controlled experiment.
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Gotovo se bo obrnila tja.
01:56
It'll go this way for sure.
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(smeh)
01:57
(Laughter)
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02:01
Sir, do you want to empty
your pockets, please, sir?
your pockets, please, sir?
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Gospod, bi izpraznili žepe, prosim?
(smeh)
02:04
(Laughter)
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Vprašanje je bilo, ali lahko res najde marihuano v omarici?
02:06
So the question was, can it actually
find marijuana in students' lockers?
find marijuana in students' lockers?
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Odgovor je... Če odprete dovolj omaric, ja.
02:09
And the answer is,
if you open enough of them, yes.
if you open enough of them, yes.
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(smeh)
02:12
(Laughter)
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(aplavz)
02:13
(Applause)
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02:14
But in science, we have to keep track
of the misses, not just the hits.
of the misses, not just the hits.
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V znanosti moramo upoštevati zmote, ne le zadetke.
To je ključna lekcija mojega govora;
02:18
And that's probably the key lesson
to my short talk here:
to my short talk here:
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02:21
This is how psychics work, astrologers,
tarot card readers and so on.
tarot card readers and so on.
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tako delajo jasnovidci, astrologi, vedeževalci s kart...
Ljudje si zapomnijo zadetke in pozabijo na zmote.
02:25
People remember the hits
and forget the misses.
and forget the misses.
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V znanosti moramo voditi vso podatkovno zbirko
02:27
In science, we keep the whole database,
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in ugotoviti, če število zadetkov izstopa
02:29
and look to see if the number
of hits somehow stands out
of hits somehow stands out
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iz skupnega števila, ki je pričakovano po naključju.
02:32
from the total number
you'd expect by chance.
you'd expect by chance.
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To napravo smo testirali.
02:34
In this case, we tested it.
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02:35
We had two opaque boxes:
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Imeli smo dve neprosojni škatli.
02:37
one with government-approved THC
marijuana, and one with nothing.
marijuana, and one with nothing.
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V eni je bila THC marihuana, v drugi pa nič.
Palica je zadela v 50% testov.
02:40
And it got it 50 percent of the time --
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02:42
(Laughter)
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To je pričakovana kvota pri metanju kovanca.
02:43
which is exactly what you'd expect
with a coin-flip model.
with a coin-flip model.
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02:46
So that's just a fun little example
here of the sorts of things we do.
here of the sorts of things we do.
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To je zabaven primer tega, kar delamo.
Skeptik izide vsake tri mesece.
02:50
"Skeptic" is the quarterly publication.
Each one has a particular theme.
Each one has a particular theme.
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Vsak ima določeno temo. Ta je o prihodnosti inteligence.
02:54
This one is on the future of intelligence.
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Postajajo ljudje pametnejši ali neumnejši?
02:56
Are people getting smarter or dumber?
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O tem imam svoje mnenje zaradi dela, ki ga opravljam.
02:58
I have an opinion of this myself
because of the business I'm in,
because of the business I'm in,
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Izkazalo se je, da postajajo ljudje pametnejši.
03:01
but in fact, people, it turns out,
are getting smarter.
are getting smarter.
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Vsakih 10 let se IQ dvigne za tri točke.
03:03
Three IQ points per 10 years, going up.
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03:06
Sort of an interesting thing.
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Zanimiva zadeva.
03:08
With science, don't think of skepticism
as a thing, or science as a thing.
as a thing, or science as a thing.
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Ne mislite, da je skepticizem stvar ali da je znanost stvar.
Sta znanost in religija združljivi?
03:12
Are science and religion compatible?
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03:13
It's like, are science
and plumbing compatible?
and plumbing compatible?
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Sta znanost in vodovodarstvo združljiva?
To sta dve različni stvari.
03:16
They're just two different things.
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03:17
Science is not a thing. It's a verb.
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Znanost ni stvar. Znanost je glagol.
03:19
It's a way of thinking about things.
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To je način razmišljanja o stvareh.
03:21
It's a way of looking for natural
explanations for all phenomena.
explanations for all phenomena.
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Je način iskanja naravnih razlag za fenomene.
Kaj je bolj verjetno -
03:24
I mean, what's more likely:
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03:25
that extraterrestrial intelligences
or multi-dimensional beings
or multi-dimensional beings
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da izvenzemeljske inteligence ali večdimenzionalna bitja potujejo
03:29
travel across vast distances
of interstellar space
of interstellar space
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skozi širjave medzvezdnega prostora in naredijo kroge
03:31
to leave a crop circle in Farmer Bob's
field in Puckerbrush, Kansas
field in Puckerbrush, Kansas
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na žitnem polju kmeta Boba v Kansasu za promocijo naše strani skeptic.com?
03:34
to promote skeptic.com, our web page?
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Ali je bolj mogoče, da je bralec Skeptika to naredil s programom Photoshop?
03:36
Or is it more likely that a reader
of "Skeptic" did this with Photoshop?
of "Skeptic" did this with Photoshop?
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V vseh primerih se moramo vprašati...
03:41
And in all cases we have to ask --
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(smeh)
03:42
(Laughter)
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03:44
What's the more likely explanation?
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...katera razlaga je najbolj možna?
03:46
Before we say something
is out of this world,
is out of this world,
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Preden rečemo, da je nekaj izven tega sveta,
se moramo prepričati, da gotovo ni s tega sveta.
03:48
we should first make sure
that it's not in this world.
that it's not in this world.
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Kaj je bolj mogoče...
03:51
What's more likely:
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da je imel Arnold izvenzemeljsko pomoč pri kandidiranju za guvernerja?
03:52
that Arnold had extraterrestrial help
in his run for the governorship,
in his run for the governorship,
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Ali da si World Weekly News izmišlja novice?
03:56
or that the "World Weekly News"
makes stuff up?
makes stuff up?
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03:58
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
Ista tema je lepo predstavljena
04:00
The same theme is expressed nicely
here in this Sidney Harris cartoon.
here in this Sidney Harris cartoon.
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na tej sliki s Sidneyjem Harrisom.
04:04
For those of you in the back,
it says here: "Then a miracle occurs.
it says here: "Then a miracle occurs.
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Za tiste zadaj, tu piše: Nato se zgodi čudež.
04:08
I think you need to be more
explicit here in step two."
explicit here in step two."
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V drugem koraku morate biti bolj eksplicitni.
04:10
This single slide completely dismantles
the intelligent design arguments.
the intelligent design arguments.
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Ta posnetek poruši vse inteligentne oblikovne argumente v obliki slike.
Ničesar drugega ni več.
04:15
There's nothing more to it than that.
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(aplavz)
04:17
(Applause)
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Lahko rečete, da se je zgodil čudež.
04:18
You can say a miracle occurs,
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04:19
it's just that it doesn't explain
anything or offer anything.
anything or offer anything.
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A to ne razloži ničesar.
Ničesar ne ponudi. Ničesar ne moremo testirati.
04:22
There's nothing to test.
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To je konec pogovora za inteligentne ustvarjalce.
04:23
It's the end of the conversation
for intelligent design creationists.
for intelligent design creationists.
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Kjerkoli že - in je res, znanstveniki uporabijo izraze, kot so
04:27
And it's true, scientists sometimes throw
terms out as linguistic place fillers --
terms out as linguistic place fillers --
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naslednji izrazi - temna energija ali temna snov ali kaj podobnega.
04:32
dark energy or dark matter,
something like that --
something like that --
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Dokler ne ugotovimo, kaj to je, naj bo ime takšno.
04:34
until we figure out what it is,
we'll call it this.
we'll call it this.
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To je začetek tradicionalne verige za znanost.
04:37
It's the beginning of the causal
chain for science.
chain for science.
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Za inteligentne ustvarjalce je to konec verige.
04:39
For intelligent design creationists,
it's the end of the chain.
it's the end of the chain.
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Torej še enkrat se lahko vprašamo -- kaj je bolj verjetno --
04:43
So again, we can ask this:
what's more likely?
what's more likely?
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so NLP-ji vesoljske ladje ali kognitivne napake, morda le ponaredki?
04:46
Are UFOs alien spaceships, or perceptual
cognitive mistakes, or even fakes?
cognitive mistakes, or even fakes?
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04:50
This is a UFO shot from my house
in Altadena, California,
in Altadena, California,
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To je posnetek NLP-ja iz moje hiše v Altadeni v Kaliforniji.
04:53
looking down over Pasadena.
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S pogledom proti Pasadeni.
04:55
And if it looks a lot like a Buick
hubcap, it's because it is.
hubcap, it's because it is.
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Če zgleda kot pokrov od avtomobilskega kolesa, je to zato, ker to je.
04:59
You don't even need Photoshop
or high-tech equipment,
or high-tech equipment,
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Ni potreben niti Photoshop niti vrhunska elektronska oprema,
niso potrebni računalniki.
05:02
you don't need computers.
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05:03
This was shot with a throwaway
Kodak Instamatic camera.
Kodak Instamatic camera.
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To je bilo posneto s Kodakovim fotoaparatom za enkratno uporabo.
05:06
You just have somebody off on the side
with a hubcap ready to go.
with a hubcap ready to go.
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Potrebuješ le nekoga, ki drži pokrov, in si pripravljen.
Fotoaparat je pripravljen - to je to.
05:09
Camera's ready -- that's it.
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(smeh)
05:11
(Laughter)
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Čeprav je mogoče, da je večina teh reči ponaredkov
05:13
So, although it's possible
that most of these things are fake
that most of these things are fake
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05:16
or illusions or so on,
and that some of them are real,
and that some of them are real,
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ali iluzij, ter da je nekaj od njih resničnih,
je bolj verjetno, da so vsi ponaredki, kot žitni krogi.
05:20
it's more likely that all of them
are fake, like the crop circles.
are fake, like the crop circles.
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Če se zresnimo, v celotni znanosti iščemo ravnovesje
05:23
On a more serious note, in all of science
we're looking for a balance
we're looking for a balance
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med podatki in teorijo.
05:27
between data and theory.
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05:28
In the case of Galileo,
he had two problems
he had two problems
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Na primer, Galilejo je imel dva problema,
05:32
when he turned his telescope to Saturn.
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ko je usmeril teleskop proti Saturnu.
Prvič, takrat ni bilo nobene teorije o planetarnih obročih.
05:35
First of all, there was no
theory of planetary rings.
theory of planetary rings.
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Drugič, njegovi posnetki so bili nejasni in nečisti,
05:38
Second of all, his data
was grainy and fuzzy,
was grainy and fuzzy,
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zato ni mogel natančno ugotoviti, kaj gleda.
05:40
and he couldn't quite make out
what he was looking at.
what he was looking at.
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Napisal je torej, kar je videl:
05:43
So he wrote that he had seen --
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05:44
"I have observed that the furthest
planet has three bodies."
planet has three bodies."
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"Opazil sem, da ima najbolj oddaljeni planet tri telesa."
In to je tisto, kar je na koncu trdil, da je videl.
05:48
And this is what he ended up
concluding that he saw.
concluding that he saw.
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Brez teorije o planetarnih obročih in samo z nejasnimi podatki
05:51
So without a theory of planetary
rings and with only grainy data,
rings and with only grainy data,
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05:54
you can't have a good theory.
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ni mogoče imeti dobre teorije.
05:56
It wasn't solved until 1655.
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In vse do leta 1655 ni bilo rešeno.
05:58
This is Christiaan Huygens's book
that catalogs all the mistakes
that catalogs all the mistakes
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To je knjiga Cristiaana Huygensa, v kateri je zapisal vse napake,
06:01
people made trying to figure out
what was going on with Saturn.
what was going on with Saturn.
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ki so jih naredili ljudje, ko so skušali ugotoviti, kaj se dogaja s Saturnom.
Vse dokler ni imel Huygens dveh stvari.
06:04
It wasn't till Huygens had two things:
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Dobre teorije o planetarnih obročih in delovanju sončnega sistema.
06:06
He had a good theory of planetary rings
and how the solar system operated,
and how the solar system operated,
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06:10
and he had better telescopic,
more fine-grain data
more fine-grain data
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Imel je tudi boljši teleskop in natančnejše podatke,
06:13
in which he could figure out that
as the Earth is going around faster --
as the Earth is going around faster --
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iz katerih je lahko ugotovil, da Zemlja kroži hitreje
- po Keplerjevih zakonih - kot Saturn, kasneje ga mi dohitimo.
06:17
according to Kepler's Laws --
than Saturn, then we catch up with it.
than Saturn, then we catch up with it.
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Tudi obroči so vidni pod različnimi koti.
06:20
And we see the angles of the rings
at different angles, there.
at different angles, there.
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06:23
And that, in fact, turns out to be true.
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In to se je izkazalo za resnično.
Problem s teorijo je ta,
06:26
The problem with having a theory is that
it may be loaded with cognitive biases.
it may be loaded with cognitive biases.
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da je morda v njej veliko dvoumnosti.
Zato je eden od problemov, zakaj ljudje verjamejo v čudne stvari
06:31
So one of the problems of explaining
why people believe weird things
why people believe weird things
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ta, da gledamo na stvari na osnovni ravni.
06:34
is that we have things, on a simple level,
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Potem bom pokazal zapletenejše primere.
06:36
and then I'll go to more serious ones.
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Na primer, ljudje pogosto vidimo obraze.
06:38
Like, we have a tendency to see faces.
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To je obraz na Marsu, ki je bil
06:40
This is the face on Mars.
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slikan leta 1976, med NASINIM raziskovanjem
06:42
In 1976, where there was a whole movement
to get NASA to photograph that area
to get NASA to photograph that area
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in slikanjem tistega območja, ker so ljudje mislili
06:46
because people thought this was monumental
architecture made by Martians.
architecture made by Martians.
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da je to arhitektura, ki so jo naredili Marsovci.
No, izkaže se - tu je bližnji posnetek iz leta 2001.
06:50
Here's the close-up of it from 2001.
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06:53
If you squint, you can still see the face.
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Če nekoliko zaškilimo, vidimo obraz.
In ko škilimo v bistvu
06:56
And when you're squinting,
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06:57
you're turning that from fine-grain
to coarse-grain,
to coarse-grain,
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spreminjamo kvaliteto iz dobre v slabo.
Torej zmanjšujemo kvaliteto podatkov.
07:00
so you're reducing
the quality of your data.
the quality of your data.
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Tudi če vam ne bi povedal, kaj morate videti,bi še vedno videli obraz,
07:02
And if I didn't tell you what to look for,
you'd still see the face,
you'd still see the face,
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ker smo ljudje z evolucijo programirani, da vidimo obraze.
07:05
because we're programmed
by evolution to see faces.
by evolution to see faces.
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Obrazi so za nas družbeno pomembni.
07:08
Faces are important for us socially.
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In seveda - srečni obrazi.
07:10
And of course, happy faces,
faces of all kinds are easy to see.
faces of all kinds are easy to see.
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Enostavno je videti različne obraze.
(smeh)
07:14
You see the happy face on Mars, there.
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Lahko opazite nasmejan obraz na Marsu.
07:16
(Laughter)
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Če bi bili astronavti žabe, bi morda videli Kermita.
07:17
If astronomers were frogs,
perhaps they'd see Kermit the Frog.
perhaps they'd see Kermit the Frog.
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Ali ga vidite?
07:20
Do you see him there? Little froggy legs.
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Majhne žabje nogice.
07:22
Or if geologists were elephants?
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Ali pa če bi bili geologi sloni?
07:25
Religious iconography.
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Verska ikona.
07:28
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
Odkril jo je pekar iz Tennesseeja leta 1996.
07:31
Discovered by a Tennessee baker in 1996.
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07:33
He charged five bucks a head
to come see the nun bun
to come see the nun bun
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Računal je 5$ na osebo, ki je hotela videti nuno,
vse dokler ni dobil prepovedi odvetnika Matere Tereze.
07:36
till he got a cease-and-desist
from Mother Teresa's lawyer.
from Mother Teresa's lawyer.
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Tukaj je Naša Dama iz Guadalupe in Naša Dama iz Watsonvilla, dol po cesti.
07:40
Here's Our Lady of Guadalupe and Our
Lady of Watsonville, just down the street,
Lady of Watsonville, just down the street,
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07:43
or is it up the street from here?
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Ali morda navzgor po cesti?
07:45
Tree bark is particularly good
because it's nice and grainy, branchy,
because it's nice and grainy, branchy,
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Vzorec na drevesu je še posebej dober, ker je grob,
07:48
black-and-white splotchy and you can
get the pattern-seeking --
get the pattern-seeking --
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črnobel in nepravilen. Kot nalašč za iskanje vzorcev --
ljudje smo iskalci vzorcev.
07:51
humans are pattern-seeking animals.
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07:53
Here's the Virgin Mary on the side
of a glass window in Sao Paulo.
of a glass window in Sao Paulo.
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Tukaj je Devica Marija na zunanjem delu steklenega okna v Sao Paulu.
In tukaj je Devica Marija na sendviču -
07:57
Here's when the Virgin Mary made
her appearance on a cheese sandwich --
her appearance on a cheese sandwich --
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ki sem ga držal lasvegaškem kazinoju,
08:00
which I got to actually
hold in a Las Vegas casino --
hold in a Las Vegas casino --
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seveda - v Ameriki.
08:03
of course, this being America.
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(smeh)
08:04
(Laughter)
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08:06
This casino paid $28,500
on eBay for the cheese sandwich.
on eBay for the cheese sandwich.
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Ta kazino je plačal 28,500$ na eBay-u za dva sirova sendviča.
08:10
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
08:12
But who does it really look like?
The Virgin Mary?
The Virgin Mary?
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Ampak komu je zares podobna, Devici Mariji?
(smeh)
08:15
(Laughter)
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Ima lička iz 1940-ih let.
08:17
It has that sort of
puckered lips, 1940s-era look.
puckered lips, 1940s-era look.
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Devica Marija v Clearwathu na Floridi.
08:21
Virgin Mary in Clearwater, Florida.
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08:22
I actually went to see this one.
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Slednjo sem dejansko šel pogledat.
08:24
There was a lot of people there.
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Veliko ljudi je bilo tam, vernikov
08:26
The faithful come in their wheelchairs
and crutches, and so on.
and crutches, and so on.
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v invalidskih vozičkih, z berglami in tako naprej.
Zadevo smo raziskali.
08:31
We went down and investigated.
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Samo da dobite predstavo o velikosti - Dawkins, jaz in neverjetni Randi,
08:33
Just to give you a size, that's Dawkins,
me and The Amazing Randi,
me and The Amazing Randi,
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nasproti teh dveh pa dva in pol nadstropja velika slika.
08:36
next to this two,
two and a half story-sized image.
two and a half story-sized image.
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Vse te sveče so prižgali verniki.
08:38
All these candles, thousands of candles
people had lit in tribute to this.
people had lit in tribute to this.
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Odšli smo na zadnjo stran, da bi videli, kaj se dogaja tam.
08:42
So we walked around the backside,
to see what was going on.
to see what was going on.
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Izkazalo se je, da kjerkoli imamo škropilnico in palmino drevo,
08:45
It turns out wherever there's
a sprinkler head and a palm tree,
a sprinkler head and a palm tree,
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dobimo ta efekt.
08:48
you get the effect.
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08:49
Here's the Virgin Mary on the backside,
which they started to wipe off.
which they started to wipe off.
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Tu je Devica Marija na zadnji strani, katero so začeli brisati.
Ugibam, da imaš lahko le en čudež na zgradbo.
08:53
I guess you can only have
one miracle per building.
one miracle per building.
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08:55
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
Ampak, ali je res Marijin čudež ali je to Marge?
08:59
So is it really a miracle of Mary,
or is it a miracle of Marge?
or is it a miracle of Marge?
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(smeh)
09:02
(Laughter)
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Zaključil bom še z enim primerom.
09:03
And now I'm going to finish up
with another example of this,
with another example of this,
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Z glasbo - glasbeno iluzijo.
09:07
with auditory illusions.
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Obstaja film "Bel Šum",
09:10
There's this film, "White Noise,"
with Michael Keaton,
with Michael Keaton,
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z Michaelom Kaeatonom, govori o mrtvih, ki govorijo z nami.
09:12
about the dead talking back to us.
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Mimogrede, ves ta posel govorjenja mrtvim sploh ni tako težaven.
09:15
By the way, the whole business of talking
to the dead is not that big a deal.
to the dead is not that big a deal.
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Vsakdo lahko to naredi.
09:19
Anybody can do it, turns out.
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Težje je narediti, da mrtvi odgovori.
09:20
It's getting the dead to talk
back that's the really hard part.
back that's the really hard part.
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(smeh)
09:23
(Laughter)
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V tem primeru so sporočila skrita v elektronskem zapisu.
09:24
In this case, supposedly, these messages
are hidden in electronic phenomena.
are hidden in electronic phenomena.
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09:28
There's a ReverseSpeech.com web page
where I downloaded this stuff.
where I downloaded this stuff.
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S spletne strani ReverseSpeech.com sem prenesel te stvari.
Tukaj je normalen posnetek - najbolj znan od vseh tovrstnih posnetkov.
09:31
This is the most famous one
of all of these.
of all of these.
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To je normalen posnetek ene najbolj znanih pesmi.
09:35
Here's the forward version
of the very famous song.
of the very famous song.
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09:37
(Music with lyrics)
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09:39
If there's a bustle in your hedgerow
don't be alarmed now.
don't be alarmed now.
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09:44
It's just a spring clean
for the May Queen.
for the May Queen.
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09:50
Yes, there are two paths you
can go by, but in the long run,
can go by, but in the long run,
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09:56
There's still time to change
the road you're on
the road you're on
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Ne bi to lahko poslušali cel dan?
10:03
Couldn't you just listen to that all day?
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(smeh)
In zdaj posnetek nazaj,
10:06
All right, here it is backwards,
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10:07
and see if you can hear the hidden
messages that are supposedly in there.
messages that are supposedly in there.
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poskusite, če boste slišali sporočilo, ki je baje zakrinkano.
10:12
(Music with unintelligible lyrics)
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10:26
(Lyrics) Satan!
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10:27
(Unintelligible lyrics continue)
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Kaj ste ujeli?
10:41
What did you get?
Audience: Satan!
Audience: Satan!
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(Občinstvo: Satan.)
10:43
Satan. OK, at least we got "Satan".
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Satan? Vsaj to smo ujeli.
10:45
Now, I'll prime the auditory
part of your brain
part of your brain
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Sedaj bom prepričal glasbeni del vaših možganov,
10:47
to tell you what you're supposed
to hear, and then hear it again.
to hear, and then hear it again.
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kaj morate slišati in vam posnetek zopet predvajal.
10:50
(Music with lyrics)
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11:17
(Music ends)
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(smeh)
11:18
(Laughter)
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(Aplavz)
11:19
(Applause)
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Ne morete zgrešiti, ko vam povem, kaj je tam.
11:26
You can't miss it
when I tell you what's there.
when I tell you what's there.
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11:28
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
Končal bom z lepo pozitivno zgodbo
11:32
I'm going to just end
with a positive, nice little story.
with a positive, nice little story.
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o - the Skeptics je neprofitna izobraževalna organizacija.
11:36
The Skeptics is a nonprofit
educational organization.
educational organization.
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Vedno iščemo male, dobre stvari, ki jih ustvarijo ljudje.
11:39
We're always looking for little
good things that people do.
good things that people do.
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V Angliji je priljubljena pop pevka.
11:41
And in England, there's a pop singer.
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Zelo priljubljena - na vrhu lestvic priljubljenosti v Angliji danes, Katie Melua.
11:43
One of the top popular singers
in England today, Katie Melua.
in England today, Katie Melua.
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Napisala je prečudovito pesem.
11:47
And she wrote a beautiful song.
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Leta 2005 je bila med prvimi petimi na svetu s pesmijo "Nine Milion Bicycles in Beijing".
11:49
It was in the top five in 2005, called,
"Nine Million Bicycles in Beijing."
"Nine Million Bicycles in Beijing."
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11:54
It's a love story -- she's sort
of the Norah Jones of the UK --
of the Norah Jones of the UK --
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Je ljubezenska zgodba - ona je kot Norah Jones Velike Britanije -
o tem, kako močno ljubi svojega fanta
11:57
about how she much loves her guy,
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11:59
and compared to nine million
bicycles, and so forth.
bicycles, and so forth.
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v primerjavi z devetimi milijoni koles in tako naprej.
V pesmi je ta odlomek.
12:02
And she has this one passage here.
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12:04
(Music)
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♫Smo 12 miljardd svetlobnih let od roba♫©
12:05
(Lyrics) We are 12 billion
light-years from the edge
light-years from the edge
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♫To je ugibanje♫
12:11
That's a guess,
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♫Nihče ne more potrditi, da je res♫
12:13
No one can ever say it's true,
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♫Vendar vem, da vedno s tabo bom♫
12:17
But I know that I will always be with you.
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No, to je prijetno.
12:22
Michael Shermer: Well, that's nice.
At least she got it close.
At least she got it close.
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Navsezadnje je bila blizu.
V Ameriki bi bilo, "Smo 6000 svetlobnih let od roba"
12:25
In America it'd be,
"We're 6,000 light years from the edge."
"We're 6,000 light years from the edge."
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(smeh)
12:28
(Laughter)
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Toda moj prijatelj Simon Singh, fizik, sedaj znanstvenik,
12:29
But my friend, Simon Singh, the particle
physicist now turned science educator,
physicist now turned science educator,
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je napisal knjigo Veliki Pok.
12:33
who wrote the book
"The Big Bang," and so on,
"The Big Bang," and so on,
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Vsako priložnost izkoristi za promoviranje dobre znanosti.
12:35
uses every chance he gets
to promote good science.
to promote good science.
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Zato je v časopisu Guardian napisal članek o pesmi,
12:37
And so he wrote an op-ed piece
in "The Guardian" about Katie's song,
in "The Guardian" about Katie's song,
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v katerem je zatrdil, da vemo natančno, kako stari, kako daleč od roba smo.
12:41
in which he said, well, we know exactly
how far from the edge.
how far from the edge.
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Smo 12, 13.7 milijard let stari in to ni ugibanje.
12:46
You know, it's 13.7 billion light years,
and it's not a guess.
and it's not a guess.
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Natančno vemo, kako blizu smo.
12:50
We know within precise
error bars how close it is.
error bars how close it is.
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In tako lahko rečemo, da ne absolutno resnično, a zelo blizu resničnemu.
12:54
So we can say, although not absolutely
true, it's pretty close to being true.
true, it's pretty close to being true.
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Po objavi članka ga je Katie poklicala.
12:58
And, to his credit, Katie called him up
after this op-ed piece came out, and said,
after this op-ed piece came out, and said,
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Ogovorila ga je: "Zelo me je sram".
13:02
"I'm so embarrassed.
I was in the astronomy club.
I was in the astronomy club.
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Bila sem članka astronomskega krožka in lahko bi vedela bolj natančno.
13:05
I should've known better."
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Tako je popravila pesem.
13:06
And she re-cut the song.
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Končal bo z novo verzijo.
13:07
So I will end with the new version.
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♫Smo 13.7 miljarde svetlobnih let♫
13:09
(Music with lyrics)
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13:11
We are 13.7 billion light years
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♫od roba opazovanega vesolja♫
13:13
from the edge of the observable universe.
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♫To je dober približek z dobro natančnostjo napake♫
13:17
That's a good estimate
with well-defined error bars.
with well-defined error bars.
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♫In z dosegljivi informacijami♫
13:20
And with the available information,
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♫predvideva, da s tabo vedno bom♫
13:24
I predict that I will always be with you.
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(aplavz)
13:28
(Laughter)
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Kako kul je to?
13:29
How cool is that?
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(aplavz)
13:30
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michael Shermer - SkepticMichael Shermer debunks myths, superstitions and urban legends -- and explains why we believe them. Along with publishing Skeptic Magazine, he's author of Why People Believe Weird Things and The Mind of the Market.
Why you should listen
As founder and publisher of Skeptic Magazine, Michael Shermer has exposed fallacies behind intelligent design, 9/11 conspiracies, the low-carb craze, alien sightings and other popular beliefs and paranoias. But it's not about debunking for debunking's sake. Shermer defends the notion that we can understand our world better only by matching good theory with good science.
Shermer's work offers cognitive context for our often misguided beliefs: In the absence of sound science, incomplete information can powerfully combine with the power of suggestion (helping us hear Satanic lyrics when "Stairway to Heaven" plays backwards, for example). In fact, a common thread that runs through beliefs of all sorts, he says, is our tendency to convince ourselves: We overvalue the shreds of evidence that support our preferred outcome, and ignore the facts we aren't looking for.
He writes a monthly column for Scientific American, and is an adjunct at Claremont Graduate University and Chapman University. His latest book is The Believing Brain: From Ghosts and Gods to Politics and Conspiracies—How We Construct Beliefs and Reinforce Them as Truths. He is also the author of The Mind of the Market, on evolutionary economics, Why Darwin Matters: Evolution and the Case Against Intelligent Design, and The Science of Good and Evil. And his next book is titled The Moral Arc of Science.
Michael Shermer | Speaker | TED.com