EG 2008
Dan Ariely: Are we in control of our own decisions?
Dan Ariely :我们是否主宰自己的决定？
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“谁说人是理性的”一书的作者，行为经济学家Dan Ariely，利用经典视差图象和他那些跟直觉相反（甚至令人震惊）的研究结果，说明我们做决定时，并非自以为那么理性。
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economist
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why. Full bio
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I'll tell you a little bit about irrational behavior.
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今天我想谈谈非理性行为。
00:19
Not yours, of course -- other people's.
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我当然不是指你们的非理性行为，是其他人的。
00:21
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
00:22
So after being at MIT for a few years,
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在MIT (麻省理工学院)待了几年之后，
00:26
I realized that writing academic papers is not that exciting.
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我发觉写学术论文并不怎样叫人兴奋。
00:30
You know, I don't know how many of those you read,
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我不知道有多少学术论文会有人看,
00:32
but it's not fun to read and often not fun to write --
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不过读学术文章并不十分有趣，很多时写学术文章也没有什么趣味，
00:35
even worse to write.
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其实写比读更糟。
00:37
So I decided to try and write something more fun.
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所以我决定写一些较好玩的东西。
00:40
And I came up with an idea that I will write a cookbook.
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我有一个主意——我想写一本烹饪书。
00:44
And the title for my cookbook was going to be
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这本烹饪书的名字将会是
00:46
"Dining Without Crumbs: The Art of Eating Over the Sink."
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“没有碎屑的晚餐：在洗碗糟上吃饭的艺术”
00:49
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
00:51
And it was going to be a look at life through the kitchen.
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这本书会从厨房看人生。
00:54
And I was quite excited about this. I was going to talk
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这个计划令我很兴奋，
00:56
a little bit about research, a little bit about the kitchen.
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我打算在这本书里一方面写研究，一方面写厨房。
00:59
You know, we do so much in the kitchen I thought this would be interesting.
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你知啦，我们在厨房做那么多的事，我想这本书会很有趣。
01:02
And I wrote a couple of chapters.
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于是我写了几个章，
01:04
And I took it to MIT press and they said,
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跟着把书拿到MIT出版社， 但他们说：
01:06
"Cute, but not for us. Go and find somebody else."
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“很有趣，不过不适合我们， 你找其他人吧。”
01:10
I tried other people and everybody said the same thing,
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我又把书拿给其他人看，但他们说的全都一样：
01:12
"Cute. Not for us."
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“很有趣，不过不适合我们。”
01:15
Until somebody said,
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最后有人说：
01:18
"Look, if you're serious about this,
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“看，如果你是认真的话，
01:20
you first have to write a book about your research. You have to publish something,
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你必须先写一本关于你的研究的书 ，你一定要发表什么，
01:23
and then you'll get the opportunity to write something else.
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才会得到写其他东西的机会。
01:25
If you really want to do it you have to do it."
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如果你真的要出版这本书，就一定得这样做。”
01:27
So I said, "You know, I really don't want to write about my research.
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我说：“我真的不想写跟我的研究有关的书，
01:30
I do this all day long. I want to write something else.
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我一整天都做研究，我想写一些其他的东西，
01:32
Something a bit more free, less constrained."
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一些比较自由，不那么拘紧的东西。”
01:35
And this person was very forceful and said,
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这个人很坚定地说：
01:38
"Look. That's the only way you'll ever do it."
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“如果你要达到目的，这是唯一的方法。”
01:40
So I said, "Okay, if I have to do it -- "
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于是我说：“好吧，如果真的一定要这样做——”
01:43
I had a sabbatical. I said, "I'll write about my research
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我有一个学术休假，我对自己说: “如果没有其他方法，
01:46
if there is no other way. And then I'll get to do my cookbook."
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我只好先写我的研究，然后再写我的烹饪书。”
01:48
So I wrote a book on my research.
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于是我写了一本关于我的研究的书。
01:51
And it turned out to be quite fun in two ways.
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写完后，我发觉其实写这本书也挺有趣。 这可以分开两方面来说。
01:54
First of all, I enjoyed writing.
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首先，我喜欢写作，
01:57
But the more interesting thing was that
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但更有趣的是，
01:59
I started learning from people.
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我开始向其他人学习。
02:01
It's a fantastic time to write,
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写作的过程很棒，
02:03
because there is so much feedback you can get from people.
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因为有许多人给你回应。
02:05
People write me about their personal experience,
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他们给我写自己的个人经历，
02:08
and about their examples, and what they disagree,
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告诉我他们的例子，和不同意我的地方，
02:10
and nuances.
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还有很多精细的见解。
02:12
And even being here -- I mean the last few days,
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也就是在这儿，我是指过去几天，
02:14
I've known really heights of obsessive behavior
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我才见识到人们对事物着迷
02:17
I never thought about.
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竟然可以达到那种程度，
02:19
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
02:20
Which I think is just fascinating.
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使我大开眼界。
02:22
I will tell you a little bit about irrational behavior.
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让我们谈谈非理性行为。
02:25
And I want to start by giving you some examples of visual illusion
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首先我想你们看看几个视觉错觉的例子，
02:28
as a metaphor for rationality.
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作为理性错觉的一个比喻。
02:30
So think about these two tables.
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请看看这两张台子，
02:32
And you must have seen this illusion.
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你一定见过这个错觉。
02:34
If I asked you what's longer, the vertical line on the table on the left,
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如果我问你，左边桌子的垂直长度较长，
02:37
or the horizontal line on the table on the right?
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还是右边桌子的水平长度较长?
02:40
Which one seems longer?
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那一条线看来比较长？
02:43
Can anybody see anything but the left one being longer?
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是不是每个人都看见左边那条线较长， 有没有看到别的？
02:46
No, right? It's impossible.
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没有人看到别的，对不对？没有可能看到别的。
02:48
But the nice thing about visual illusion is we can easily demonstrate mistakes.
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视觉错觉的美妙之处，是我们很容易证明错误。
02:51
So I can put some lines on; it doesn't help.
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我可以加一些线在这里，不过没有什么用处。
02:54
I can animate the lines.
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我可以移动这些线，
02:56
And to the extent you believe I didn't shrink the lines,
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只要你相信我没有缩短它们，
02:58
which I didn't, I've proven to you that your eyes were deceiving you.
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而我确实没有，我就能证明你们的眼睛欺骗了你。
03:03
Now, the interesting thing about this
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视觉错觉的有趣之处，
03:05
is when I take the lines away,
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是如果我把这些线移走，
03:07
it's as if you haven't learned anything in the last minute.
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那便好像你在刚才一分钟什么也没有学到。
03:09
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
03:12
You can't look at this and say, "Okay now I see reality as it is."
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你不能看着这图说，“哦，我现在看到真实的图像了。”
03:15
Right? It's impossible to overcome this
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对不对？要克服这个错觉是不可能的，
03:17
sense that this is indeed longer.
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我们还是觉得这条线较长。
03:20
Our intuition is really fooling us in a repeatable, predictable, consistent way.
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我们的直觉总是重复地，可预测地，屡试不爽地欺骗我们，
03:23
And there is almost nothing we can do about it,
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而我们却几乎没有什么办法，
03:26
aside from taking a ruler and starting to measure it.
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只能拿一把尺量一量仅此而已。
03:29
Here is another one -- this is one of my favorite illusions.
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这是另一个例子。是我最喜欢的视觉错觉之一。
03:32
What do you see the color that top arrow is pointing to?
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你见到上方箭头指着的是什么颜色？
03:35
Brown. Thank you.
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棕色，谢谢你。
03:37
The bottom one? Yellow.
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下面这个呢？黄色。
03:39
Turns out they're identical.
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其实它们是完全一样的。
03:41
Can anybody see them as identical?
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有人看见它们是一样的吗？
03:43
Very very hard.
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非常非常难。
03:45
I can cover the rest of the cube up.
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我可以把方块的其他部分盖住，
03:47
And if I cover the rest of the cube you can see that they are identical.
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如果我把方块其他部分盖住，你可以看见它们其实是一样的。
03:50
And if you don't believe me you can get the slide later
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如果你不相信我， 一会儿你可以向我要投影片，
03:52
and do some arts and crafts and see that they're identical.
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把图像剪剪贴贴，看他们是否真的一样。
03:55
But again it's the same story
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不过，跟第一个例子一样，
03:57
that if we take the background away,
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只要我们把背景除掉，
03:59
the illusion comes back. Right.
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我们的错觉又回来了，对不对？
04:01
There is no way for us not to see this illusion.
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我们没有办法不受这个错觉影响。
04:04
I guess maybe if you're colorblind I don't think you can see that.
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或者如果有人是色盲的话，才可能会看不到。
04:07
I want you to think about illusion as a metaphor.
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我想大家把视觉错觉看成一个比喻。
04:10
Vision is one of the best things we do.
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视觉是我们最出色的能力之一，
04:12
We have a huge part of our brain dedicated to vision --
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我们大脑的很大部分是专用于视力的，
04:14
bigger than dedicated to anything else.
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比用作其他能力的部分都大。
04:16
We do more vision more hours of the day than we do anything else.
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我们一天里运用视觉的时数，要比用在其他事情的时数多。
04:20
And we are evolutionarily designed to do vision.
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人类的进化使我们长于视力。
04:22
And if we have these predictable repeatable mistakes in vision,
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如果我们的视觉也有这些可预测的，可重复的错误，
04:25
which we're so good at,
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而视觉是我们最优秀的能力之一，
04:27
what's the chance that we don't make even more mistakes
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至于我们不那么优秀的能力，
04:29
in something we're not as good at --
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我们不会犯更多错误的机会又有多少？
04:31
for example, financial decision making:
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举一个例子，我们金融决策的订定。
04:33
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
04:35
something we don't have an evolutionary reason to do,
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一些我们没有一个演化原因会做得好的事情；
04:37
we don't have a specialized part of the brain,
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一些在大脑中没有专责部分处理的事情；
04:39
and we don't do that many hours of the day.
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一些我们在一天里，不是花那么多时间做的事情。
04:41
And the argument is in those cases
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我们要问的，就是在这些事情上
04:44
it might be the issue that we actually make many more mistakes
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我们会否犯上更多的错误。
04:48
and, worse, not have an easy way to see them.
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更糟的是，要认识到这些错误并不容易。
04:51
Because in visual illusions we can easily demonstrate the mistakes;
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在视觉错觉上，我们很容易证明错误；
04:54
in cognitive illusion it's much, much harder
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可是要向人们证明他们认知上的错觉，
04:56
to demonstrate to people the mistakes.
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却非常艰难。
04:58
So I want to show you some cognitive illusions,
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所以我想让大家看一些认知错觉的例子，
05:01
or decision-making illusions, in the same way.
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和人们做决定时， 与认知误差有关的错觉。
05:04
And this is one of my favorite plots in social sciences.
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这是我在社会科学中，最喜爱的图表之一。
05:07
It's from a paper by Johnson and Goldstein.
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取自Johnson 和Goldstein 的一篇文章。
05:11
And it basically shows
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图表基本上显示
05:13
the percentage of people who indicated
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表示有兴趣捐赠器官人士
05:15
they would be interested in giving their organs to donation.
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的百分比。
05:19
And these are different countries in Europe. And you basically
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这些是欧洲的各个国家。基本上
05:21
see two types of countries:
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你可以见到两类国家：
05:23
countries on the right, that seem to be giving a lot;
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右边的国家很多人表示愿意捐赠器官，
05:25
and countries on the left that seem to giving very little,
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而左边的国家就很少人愿意，
05:28
or much less.
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比右边少得多。
05:30
The question is, why? Why do some countries give a lot
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问题时，为什么有些国家有那么多人愿意捐赠器官，
05:32
and some countries give a little?
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而有些国家愿意的人是那么少？
05:34
When you ask people this question,
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如果你问别人这个问题，
05:36
they usually think that it has to be something about culture.
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他们多数都会以为和文化有关。
05:38
Right? How much do you care about people?
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对不对？你有多关心其他人？
05:40
Giving your organs to somebody else
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捐赠器官给其他人，
05:42
is probably about how much you care about society, how linked you are.
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大概跟一个人是否关心社会，和其他人的关系有多密切有关，
05:45
Or maybe it is about religion.
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又或者和宗教有关。
05:47
But, if you look at this plot,
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不过，如果你看看这个图表，
05:49
you can see that countries that we think about as very similar
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你会看到，我们以为很相似的国家，
05:52
actually exhibit very different behavior.
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实际上却表现出非常不同的行为。
05:55
For example, Sweden is all the way on the right,
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例如，瑞典在图表的最右方，
05:57
and Denmark, that we think is culturally very similar,
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但我们认为和瑞典很相近的丹麦，
06:00
is all the way on the left.
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却在图表的最左方；
06:02
Germany is on the left. And Austria is on the right.
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德国在左方，但奥地利却在右方；
06:06
The Netherlands is on the left. And Belgium is on the right.
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荷兰在左方，而比利时就在右方；
06:09
And finally, depending on your particular version
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最后，视乎你对欧洲各国
06:12
of European similarity,
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的相近性的看法，
06:14
you can think about the U.K and France as either similar culturally or not.
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你可能会以为英国和法国的文化是互相接近或者不同，
06:19
But it turns out that from organ donation they are very different.
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不过，就器官捐赠比例来说，他们却显著不同。
06:23
By the way, the Netherlands is an interesting story.
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顺便说说，关于荷兰有一个有趣的故事。
06:25
You see the Netherlands is kind of the biggest of the small group.
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你可以看到，荷兰是少人捐赠器官的国家之中比例最高的。
06:30
Turns out that they got to 28 percent
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真相是，有百分之二十八的人
06:33
after mailing every household in the country a letter
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在收到一封寄到全国每一户的信，
06:36
begging people to join this organ donation program.
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恳求人们参加器官捐赠计划以后， 表示愿意这么做。
06:39
You know the expression, "Begging only gets you so far"?
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你听过一句话没有：“乞求不会有什么好效果。”
06:42
It's 28 percent in organ donation.
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在器官捐赠上，就只能达到百分之二十八。
06:45
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
06:47
But whatever the countries on the right are doing
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反之，无论右方的国家做了什么，
06:49
they are doing a much better job than begging.
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他们的成效都比乞求人们好。
06:51
So what are they doing?
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那究竟这些国家做了什么？
06:53
Turns out the secret has to do with a form at the DMV.
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原来他们的秘密，在于汽车登记处的一张表格。
06:56
And here is the story.
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这便是他们所做的。
06:58
The countries on the left have a form at the DMV
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在图表左方的国家，汽车登记处的表格包括了
07:00
that looks something like this.
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这个部分：
07:02
Check the box below if you want to participate
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愿意参加器官捐赠计划者，
07:04
in the organ donor program.
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请在方格打勾。
07:06
And what happens?
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结果怎么样？
07:08
People don't check, and they don't join.
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多数人没有打勾，他们没有参加捐赠计划。
07:11
The countries on the right, the ones that give a lot,
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图表右方的国家，那些参加捐赠计划比例很高的国家，
07:13
have a slightly different form.
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则用了一张不同的表格，
07:15
It says check the box below if you don't want to participate.
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上面写着，不愿意参加器官捐赠计划者，请在方格打勾。
07:18
Interestingly enough, when people get this,
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有趣的是，人们拿着这一张表格，
07:20
they again don't check -- but now they join.
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他们也不打勾， 不过这么一来，他们参加了器官捐赠计划。
07:23
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
07:26
Now think about what this means.
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让我们想想，这告诉我们什么？
07:29
We wake up in the morning and we feel we make decisions.
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我们早上起来，觉得可以主宰自己的决定，
07:33
We wake up in the morning and we open the closet
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我们早上起来，打开衣橱，
07:35
and we feel that we decide what to wear.
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以为我们可以决定穿什么，
07:37
And we open the refrigerator and we feel that we decide what to eat.
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打开冰箱，以为我们可以决定吃什么，
07:40
What this is actually saying is that
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但我们刚才看到的，
07:42
much of these decisions are not residing within us.
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是器官捐赠这个决定，很大程度上并不在乎我们，
07:44
They are residing in the person who is designing that form.
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反而在乎设计表格的人。
07:47
When you walk into the DMV,
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当你走进汽车登记处，
07:50
the person who designed the form will have a huge influence
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设计表格的人将会对你跟着要做的事
07:52
on what you'll end up doing.
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产生非常重大的影响。
07:54
Now it's also very hard to intuit these results. Think about it for yourself.
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要知道单凭直觉去找出这些结果非常困难。试想想我们自己，
07:58
How many of you believe
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你们之中有多少人相信，
08:00
that if you went to renew your license tomorrow,
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如果明天你要为你的汽车续牌，
08:02
and you went to the DMV,
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你走进汽车登记处，
08:04
and you would encounter one of these forms,
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拿起这些表格时，
08:06
that it would actually change your own behavior?
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它们真的可以改变你的行为？
08:09
Very, very hard to think that you will influence us.
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要相信它们会影响我们非常困难。
08:11
We can say, "Oh, these funny Europeans, of course it would influence them."
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我们会说，“噢，那些奇怪的欧洲人，他们当然会受到影响。”
08:13
But when it comes to us,
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不过如果是我们的话，
08:16
we have such a feeling that we are at the driver's seat,
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我们总是觉得，我们才是坐在驾驶席的那个人，
08:18
we have such a feeling that we are in control,
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我们总是觉得，一切在我们掌握之中，
08:20
and we are making the decision,
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我们主宰自己的决定。
08:22
that it's very hard to even accept
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我们很难接受
08:24
the idea that we actually have
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我们做决定只是一种错觉，
08:26
an illusion of making a decision, rather than an actual decision.
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实质上决定并不是我们做的。
08:30
Now, you might say,
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可能你会说，
08:32
"These are decisions we don't care about."
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“这些都是我们不在意的决定。”
08:35
In fact, by definition, these are decisions
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事实上，按照定义，这些决定只是
08:37
about something that will happen to us after we die.
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跟我们死后的事情有关，
08:39
How could we care about something less
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有什么事情，
08:42
than something that happens after we die?
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比我们死后的事情更无关重要？
08:44
So a standard economist, someone who believes in rationality,
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所以一个典型的经济学家、一个相信人是理性的人会说，
08:47
would say, "You know what? The cost of lifting the pencil
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“你知道吗？提起铅笔打一个勾所付出的代价，
08:50
and marking a V is higher than the possible
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要比做这个决定
08:52
benefit of the decision,
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可能带来的利益大。"
08:54
so that's why we get this effect."
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这就是为什么我们得到这个结果。
08:56
But, in fact, it's not because it's easy.
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不过，事实上，人们这样做并不是因为这个决定太容易，
08:59
It's not because it's trivial. It's not because we don't care.
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不是因为这个决定不重要，不是因为我们不在意。
09:02
It's the opposite. It's because we care.
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刚好相反，人们这样做是因为我们在意，
09:05
It's difficult and it's complex.
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因为这个决定既困难又复杂。
09:07
And it's so complex that we don't know what to do.
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这个决定太复杂，以致我们不知道该做什么，
09:09
And because we have no idea what to do
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我们不知道该怎么做，
09:11
we just pick whatever it was that was chosen for us.
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于是我们挑了别人预先为我们选的， 不管哪是什么。
09:15
I'll give you one more example for this.
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让我多给你一个例子。
09:17
This is from a paper by Redelmeier and Schaefer.
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这个例子取自Redelmeier 和Schaefer 的一篇文章。
09:20
And they said, "Well, this effect also happens to experts,
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他们说：“这种现象也一样影响专家，
09:23
people who are well-paid, experts in their decisions,
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高薪人士、专家做决定时，
09:26
do it a lot."
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也常常受到错觉的影响。”
09:28
And they basically took a group of physicians.
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简单来说，Redelmeier 和Schaefer找来一班医生，
09:30
And they presented to them a case study of a patient.
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告诉他们一个病人的个案。
09:32
Here is a patient. He is a 67-year-old farmer.
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病者是一个农夫，六十七岁，
09:36
He's been suffering from a right hip pain for a while.
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右髖骨已经疼了一段时期。
09:38
And then they said to the physician,
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接着他们对这班医生说，
09:40
"You decided a few weeks ago
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几星期前，你决定
09:42
that nothing is working for this patient.
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已经没有什么疗法对这个病人有效，
09:44
All these medications, nothing seems to be working.
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所有药物似乎都没有效果，
09:46
So you refer the patient to hip replacement therapy.
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所以你决定转介病人
09:49
Hip replacement. Okay?"
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接受髖关节置换手术。
09:51
So the patient is on a path to have his hip replaced.
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所以，这个病人已经开始轮候置换髖关节。
09:54
And then they said to half the physicians, they said,
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跟着他们对其中一半的医生说：
09:56
"Yesterday you reviewed the patient's case
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你昨天再详阅病人的个案，
09:58
and you realized that you forgot to try one medication.
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发现忘了试一种药物，
10:01
You did not try ibuprofen.
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你还没有试 ibuprofen（镇痛消炎药）。
10:04
What do you do? Do you pull the patient back and try ibuprofen?
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你会怎么做呢？你会不会召回病人，把ibuprofen 开给他试试？
10:07
Or do you let them go and have hip replacement?"
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还是让他继续轮候髖关节手术？
10:10
Well the good news is that most physicians in this case
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好消息是，大部分医生都决定
10:12
decided to pull the patient and try the ibuprofen.
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把病人召回，让他试试 ibuprofen。
10:15
Very good for the physicians.
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我们都很高兴医生这样做。
10:17
The other group of the physicians, they said,
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至于另一组医生，研究人员对他们说，
10:19
"Yesterday when you reviewed the case
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“你昨天再详阅病人的个案，
10:21
you discovered there were two medications you didn't try out yet,
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发现还没有试两种药物，
10:23
ibuprofen and piroxicam."
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就是ibuprofen和piroxicam。”
10:26
And they said, "You have two medications you didn't try out yet. What do you do?
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研究人员说：“你还有两种药物没有试，你会怎么做？
10:29
You let them go. Or you pull them back.
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你会让病人继续轮候做手术， 还是叫他回来？
10:31
And if you pull them back do you try ibuprofen or piroxicam? Which one?"
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如果你叫他回来，你会先试ibuprofen 还是 piroxicam？
10:34
Now think of it. This decision
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试想想，这个决定可以很容易，
10:36
makes it as easy to let the patient continue with hip replacement.
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就是让病人继续轮候髖关节置换手术。
10:39
But pulling them back, all of the sudden becomes more complex.
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不过如果叫他们回来，突然间决定就变得比较复杂，
10:42
There is one more decision.
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因为还有一个决定要做。
10:44
What happens now?
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结果是怎么样呢？
10:46
Majority of the physicians now choose to let the patient go
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大部分医生决定让病人继续轮候做手术，
10:49
to hip replacement.
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把髖关节换掉。
10:51
I hope this worries you, by the way --
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我希望这个例子会使你关注，
10:53
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
10:54
when you go to see your physician.
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当你下次去见医生的时候。
10:56
The thing is is that no physician would ever say,
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问题时，没有一个医生会说：
10:59
"Piroxicam, ibuprofen, hip replacement.
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“Piroxicam，ibuprofen 和髖关节置换手术三者之间，
11:01
Let's go for hip replacement."
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就选择髖关节置换手术吧。
11:03
But the moment you set this as the default
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不过，一旦你把它设定作为先决的选择，
11:06
it has a huge power over whatever people end up doing.
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便会对人们最后的决定，产生巨大的影响力。
11:10
I'll give you a couple of more examples on irrational decision-making.
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让我多举几个例子，证明我们的决定可以是不理性的。
11:13
Imagine I give you a choice.
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如果我给你一个选择，
11:15
Do you want to go for a weekend to Rome?
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你可以选到罗马度周末，
11:17
All expenses paid:
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费用全免，
11:19
hotel, transportation, food, breakfast,
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包括酒店、交通、膳食、早餐，
11:21
a continental breakfast, everything.
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欧陆早餐等一切费用；
11:23
Or a weekend in Paris?
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或者到巴黎度周末。
11:25
Now, a weekend in Paris, a weekend in Rome, these are different things;
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请想想，到巴黎度周末，跟到罗马度周末，是两码子的事。
11:28
they have different food, different culture, different art.
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它们有不同的食物、不同的文化、不同的艺术。
11:30
Now imagine I added a choice to the set
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如果我在这两者之间，
11:32
that nobody wanted.
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加上一个没有人喜欢的选择，
11:34
Imagine I said, "A weekend in Rome,
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如果我说：“你喜欢到罗马度周末，
11:36
a weekend in Paris, or having your car stolen?"
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到巴黎度周末，还是被人偷车？“
11:39
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
11:42
It's a funny idea, because why would having your car stolen,
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这是一个可笑的主意，加上“被人偷车”这个选择，
11:45
in this set, influence anything?
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能对最后决定有什么影响？
11:47
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
11:49
But what if the option to have your car stolen
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不过如果这个额外的选择，
11:52
was not exactly like this.
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并不是“被人偷车”那又如何？
11:54
What if it was a trip to Rome, all expenses paid,
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如果这个额外的选择，是到罗马度周末，费用全免，
11:56
transportation, breakfast,
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包括交通、早餐，
11:58
but doesn't include coffee in the morning.
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但不包括早晨的咖啡。
12:01
If you want coffee you have to pay for it yourself. It's two euros 50.
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你要咖啡，便要自掏腰包，付两欧元的价钱。
12:04
Now in some ways,
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在某程度来说，
12:07
given that you can have Rome with coffee,
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既然你可以到”罗马包咖啡”，
12:09
why would you possibly want Rome without coffee?
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有谁会选择“到罗马不包咖啡”呢？
12:12
It's like having your car stolen. It's an inferior option.
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就好像“被人偷车”一样，那是一个次等的选择。
12:15
But guess what happened. The moment you add Rome without coffee,
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你猜猜结果怎麽样？结果是，你一加上“到罗马不包咖啡”这个选择，
12:17
Rome with coffee becomes more popular. And people choose it.
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“到罗马包咖啡”就变得较吸引，变成人们的选择。
12:22
The fact that you have Rome without coffee
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“到罗马不包咖啡”这个选择
12:25
makes Rome with coffee look superior,
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令人觉得“到罗马包咖啡”这个选择比其他好，
12:27
and not just to Rome without coffee -- even superior to Paris.
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不单比“到罗马不包咖啡”好，甚至比到巴黎好。
12:30
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
12:34
Here are two examples of this principle.
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关于这个原则我还有两个例子。
12:36
This was an ad from The Economist a few years ago
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这是“经济学人”杂志几年前的一则广告，
12:39
that gave us three choices.
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他给你三个选择：
12:41
An online subscription for 59 dollars.
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以五十九元订阅“经济学人”网上版；
12:44
A print subscription for 125.
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以一百二十五元订阅印刷版；
12:48
Or you could get both for 125.
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或是以一百二十五元同时订阅印刷版和网上版。
12:50
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
12:52
Now I looked at this and I called up The Economist.
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见到这则广告后，我致电“经济学人”，
12:54
And I tried to figure out what were they thinking.
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我想知道他们是怎样想的。
12:57
And they passed me from one person to another to another,
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他们把我从一个人交到另一个人再交到另一个人，
13:00
until eventually I got to a person who was in charge of the website.
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最后我被转到网页的负责人，
13:04
And I called them up. And they went to check what was going on.
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于是我打电话给他们，他们又说要去转问其他人。
13:07
The next thing I know, the ad is gone. And no explanation.
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接着我所知道的，是广告很快便消失了，没有什么解释。
13:11
So I decided to do the experiment
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我于是决定自己进行
13:13
that I would have loved The Economist to do with me.
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这个我本来打算和经济学人一起做的实验。
13:16
I took this and I gave it to 100 MIT students.
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我把广告给一百个MIT 个学生看，
13:18
I said, "What would you choose?"
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我说，“你会怎么选？”
13:20
These are the market share. Most people wanted the combo deal.
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这是各个选择的占有率 – 多数人都选择合拼订阅计划。
13:24
Thankfully nobody wanted the dominated option.
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没有人选择主流的印刷版，
13:26
That means our students can read.
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那显示我们学生的阅读能力还不错。
13:28
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
13:29
But now if you have an option that nobody wants,
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不过既然有一个选择完全没有人选，
13:32
you can take it off. Right?
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我们应该可以把它拿走了吧？
13:34
So I printed another version of this,
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于是我把订阅表格修改了一下，
13:36
where I eliminated the middle option.
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把第二个选择移走，
13:38
I gave it to another 100 students. Here is what happens.
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再交给另外一百个学生选。结果在这里。
13:41
Now the most popular option became the least popular.
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这次最受欢迎的选择变成最不受欢迎，
13:44
And the least popular became the most popular.
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而最不受欢迎的却变成最受欢迎。
13:47
What was happening was the option that was useless,
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我们发现中间那个选择，
13:51
in the middle, was useless in the sense that nobody wanted it.
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因为没有人选它，所以可算是一个没有用的选择，
13:55
But it wasn't useless in the sense that it helped people figure out
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但事实上它又不是真正没用，
13:57
what they wanted.
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因为它能帮助人们找出他们想要的东西。
13:59
In fact, relative to the option in the middle,
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事实上，与中间那个选择相比，
14:02
which was get only the print for 125,
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即是以一百二十五块净订阅印刷版，
14:06
the print and web for 125 looked like a fantastic deal.
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以一百二十五块一并得到印刷版和网上版看来十分划算，
14:10
And as a consequence, people chose it.
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于是，人人都选了它。
14:12
The general idea here, by the way,
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这些例子告诉我们，
14:14
is that we actually don't know our preferences that well.
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我们对自己的喜好其实并不那么清楚，
14:16
And because we don't know our preferences that well
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而正因为我们不清楚知道自己的喜好，
14:18
we're susceptible to all of these influences from the external forces:
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我们很容易受到各种外在因素的影响,
14:22
the defaults, the particular options that are presented to us, and so on.
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例如那个是预设的选择，提供给我们的是那几个选择，等等。
14:26
One more example of this.
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这里还有另一个例子。
14:28
People believe that when we deal with physical attraction,
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一般人相信说到外表吸引力，
14:31
we see somebody, and we know immediately whether we like them or not,
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只要我们可以见到对方，便可以立即知道自己是否喜欢这个人，
14:34
attracted or not.
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他或她对自己是否有吸引力。
14:36
Which is why we have these four-minute dates.
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这就是为什么我们有那些四分钟约会。
14:38
So I decided to do this experiment with people.
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于是我决定找人做这个实验。
14:41
I'll show you graphic images of people -- not real people.
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我这里有几个人面的图像 – 他们都不是真人。
14:43
The experiment was with people.
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再找来一些做这个实验。
14:45
I showed some people a picture of Tom, and a picture of Jerry.
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我给他们看两幅图像，一幅是Tom, 一幅是Jerry。
14:48
I said "Who do you want to date? Tom or Jerry?"
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我问他们：“你们喜欢跟谁约会，是Tom 还是Jerry？”
14:51
But for half the people I added an ugly version of Jerry.
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不过，对其中一半人，我加上了一个丑化了的Jerry 的图像，
14:55
I took Photoshop and I made Jerry slightly less attractive.
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我用Photoshop 加工图像，把Jerry 弄得没有那么具吸引力。
15:00
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
15:01
The other people, I added an ugly version of Tom.
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对另外一半人，我加了一个丑化了的 Tom 的图像。
15:05
And the question was, will ugly Jerry and ugly Tom
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我的问题是，丑化了的 Jerry 和Tom，
15:08
help their respective, more attractive brothers?
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会不会教原来的 Jerry 和Tom 变得更具吸引力？
15:12
The answer was absolutely yes.
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答案是绝对的。
15:14
When ugly Jerry was around, Jerry was popular.
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当加上了丑Jerry，原来的Jerry就变得较受欢迎；
15:16
When ugly Tom was around, Tom was popular.
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当加上了丑Tom，原来的Tom也变得较受欢迎。
15:18
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
15:20
This of course has two very clear implications
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这个结果对于我们日常的生活，
15:22
for life in general.
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有两个很清楚的启示。
15:26
If you ever go bar hopping, who do you want to take with you?
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如果你要到酒吧留连，你会跟谁一起去？
15:29
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
15:35
You want a slightly uglier version of yourself.
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你会想要一个样子没有你那么帅的伴儿。
15:38
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
15:40
Similar. Similar ... but slightly uglier.
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和你相似，但比你丑一点儿的。
15:42
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
15:44
The second point, or course, is that
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当然，第二点就是
15:46
if somebody else invites you, you know how they think about you.
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如果有人请你去酒吧，你就知道他们对你的看法。
15:49
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
15:52
Now you're getting it.
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你们现在明白了吧。
15:54
What is the general point?
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这些例子总的来说表明了什么？
15:56
The general point is that when we think about economics we have
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在经济学里，对于人的本质
15:58
this beautiful view of human nature.
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有着很美丽的看法。
16:01
"What a piece of work is man! How noble in reason!"
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“人类是一件多么了不得的杰作！多么高贵的理性！“（选自莎士比亚“王子复仇记”）
16:03
We have this view of ourselves, of others.
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我们也是这样看待自己和其他人。
16:06
The behavioral economics perspective
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不过，用行为经济学的角度，
16:08
is slightly less generous to people.
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对人的看法却没有那么美好，
16:11
In fact in medical terms, that's our view.
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事实上，借用医学的语言，这便是行为经济学对人的看法。
16:14
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
16:20
But there is a silver lining.
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不过这也未尝没有一点好处，
16:22
The silver lining is, I think,
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我认为这点好处，
16:24
kind of the reason that behavioral economics is interesting and exciting.
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正是为什么行为经济学是那么有趣和刺激的原因。
16:28
Are we Superman? Or are we Homer Simpson?
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我们到底是超人还是 Homer Simpson （美国电视剧的主角，以平凡愚笨见称）？
16:30
When it comes to building the physical world,
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试想我们建设物质世界时，
16:34
we kind of understand our limitations.
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我们了解自己的限制。
16:36
We build steps. And we build these things
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于是我们建设步骤。我们制造了这些东西，
16:38
that not everybody can use obviously.
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虽然，很明显并不是每个人都懂得使用。
16:41
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
16:42
We understand our limitations,
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因为我们明白自己的限制，
16:44
and we build around it.
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于是我们环绕着这些限制来建设世界。
16:46
But for some reason when it comes to the mental world,
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可是为着某种缘故，到了思想世界，
16:48
when we design things like healthcare and retirement and stockmarkets,
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当我们设计医疗改革、退休计划或股票市场等事情时，
16:52
we somehow forget the idea that we are limited.
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不知怎地却忘了自己的限制。
16:54
I think that if we understood our cognitive limitations
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我想如果我们明白人类理性的限制，
16:57
in the same way that we understand our physical limitations,
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正如我们明白生理上的限制一样，
16:59
even though they don't stare us in the face in the same way,
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虽然它们并不像生理限制那么明显，
17:01
we could design a better world.
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那么我们便可以设计一个更美好的世界。
17:04
And that, I think, is the hope of this thing.
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我想这就是行为经济学带个我们的希望。
17:06
Thank you very much.
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谢谢大家。
17:08
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economistThe dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why.
Why you should listen
Dan Ariely is a professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke University and a founding member of the Center for Advanced Hindsight. He is the author of the bestsellers Predictably Irrational, The Upside of Irrationality, and The Honest Truth About Dishonesty -- as well as the TED Book Payoff: The Hidden Logic that Shapes Our Motivations.
Through his research and his (often amusing and unorthodox) experiments, he questions the forces that influence human behavior and the irrational ways in which we often all behave.
Dan Ariely | Speaker | TED.com