ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Stephen Hawking - Theoretical physicist
Stephen Hawking's scientific investigations have shed light on the origins of the cosmos, the nature of time and the ultimate fate of the universe. His bestselling books for a general audience have given an appreciation of physics to millions.

Why you should listen

Stephen Hawking is perhaps the world's most famous living physicist. A specialist in cosmology and quantum gravity and a devotee of black holes, his work has probed the origins of the cosmos, the nature of time and the universe's ultimate fate -- earning him accolades including induction into the Order of the British Empire. To the public, he's best known as an author of bestsellers such as The Universe in a Nutshell and A Brief History of Time, which have brought an appreciation of theoretical physics to millions.

Though the motor neuron disorder ALS has confined Hawking to a wheelchair, it hasn't stopped him from lecturing widely, making appearances on television shows such as Star Trek: The Next Generation and The Simpsons -- and planning a trip into orbit with Richard Branson's Virgin Galactic. (He recently experienced weightlessness aboard Zero Gravity Corporation's "Vomit Comet.") A true academic celebrity, he uses his public appearances to raise awareness about potential global disasters -- such as global warming -- and to speak out for the future of humanity: "Getting a portion of the human race permanently off the planet is imperative for our future as a species," he says.

Hawking serves as Lucasian Professor of Mathematics at the University of Cambridge, where he continues to contribute to both high-level physics and the popular understanding of our universe.

More profile about the speaker
Stephen Hawking | Speaker | TED.com
TED2008

Stephen Hawking: Questioning the universe

霍金求道 - 宇宙苍茫

Filmed:
12,876,555 views

以TED2008的主题为出发点,史蒂芬·霍金教授提出了一些关于我们宇宙的重要问题──宇宙如何开始?生命何起源?宇宙中只有我们吗?。与此同时,霍金教授也讨论了我们探究破解这些问题的途径。
- Theoretical physicist
Stephen Hawking's scientific investigations have shed light on the origins of the cosmos, the nature of time and the ultimate fate of the universe. His bestselling books for a general audience have given an appreciation of physics to millions. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:14
There is nothing bigger or older旧的 than the universe宇宙.
0
2000
4000
没什么比宇宙更广大更久远的了。
00:18
The questions问题 I would like to talk about are:
1
6000
4000
您们的问题中我想聊一下的是:
00:22
one, where did we come from?
2
10000
7000
您我何从?
00:29
How did the universe宇宙 come into being存在?
3
17000
3000
宇宙何来?
00:32
Are we alone单独 in the universe宇宙?
4
20000
4000
宇宙中就只有我们?
00:36
Is there alien外侨 life out there?
5
24000
3000
有外星异生物么?
00:39
What is the future未来 of the human人的 race种族?
6
27000
4000
人类的未来将会如何?
00:43
Up until直到 the 1920s,
7
31000
2000
上世纪20年代之前,
00:45
everyone大家 thought the universe宇宙 was essentially实质上 static静态的
8
33000
4000
所有人都以为宇宙基本上是处于稳态,
00:49
and unchanging不变 in time.
9
37000
2000
流金岁月, 持恒不变.
00:51
Then it was discovered发现 that the universe宇宙 was expanding扩大.
10
39000
5000
之后我们发现原来宇宙正在膨胀中.
00:56
Distant遥远 galaxies星系 were moving移动 away from us.
11
44000
3000
辽远星系一直飞离我们.
00:59
This meant意味着 they must必须 have been closer接近 together一起 in the past过去.
12
47000
7000
这意味着它们必定曾相靠近.
01:06
If we extrapolate推断 back,
13
54000
2000
我们若往后推算,
01:08
we find we must必须 have all been on top最佳 of each other
14
56000
4000
就会发现我们必都曾於约150亿年前
01:12
about 15 billion十亿 years年份 ago.
15
60000
2000
互相堆叠在一起.
01:14
This was the Big Bang, the beginning开始 of the universe宇宙.
16
62000
6000
正是这 "霹雳大爆炸" - 宇宙之起始.
01:20
But was there anything before the Big Bang?
17
68000
3000
然而大爆炸前可有什么吗?
01:23
If not, what created创建 the universe宇宙?
18
71000
4000
若是没有, 又是什么创造宇宙呢?
01:27
Why did the universe宇宙 emerge出现 from the Big Bang the way it did?
19
75000
5000
宇宙缘何要从大霹雳中冒出呢?
01:32
We used to think that the theory理论 of the universe宇宙
20
80000
5000
过往我们都认为宇宙论
01:37
could be divided分为 into two parts部分.
21
85000
2000
可分成两部分.
01:39
First, there were the laws法律
22
87000
3000
首先, 是定律
01:42
like Maxwell's麦克斯韦 equations方程 and general一般 relativity相对论
23
90000
3000
像'麦克斯韦方程组' 和 '广义相对论'
01:45
that determined决心 the evolution演化 of the universe宇宙,
24
93000
3000
以其于同一刻设定整个时空之状态,
01:49
given特定 its state over all of space空间 at one time.
25
97000
3000
而决定了宇宙之演化进程.
01:52
And second第二, there was no question
26
100000
3000
次之,是对宇宙雏形
01:55
of the initial初始 state of the universe宇宙.
27
103000
3000
的疑问.
01:58
We have made制作 good progress进展 on the first part部分,
28
106000
5000
第一部分我们取得良好进展,
02:03
and now have the knowledge知识 of the laws法律 of evolution演化
29
111000
3000
除了 '至极端境况' 以外. 现在已对
02:06
in all but the most extreme极端 conditions条件.
30
114000
3000
演化规律于所有境况下之进程有所掌握.
02:09
But until直到 recently最近, we have had little idea理念
31
117000
3000
可直至最近, 我们仍对宇宙初生当时之
02:12
about the initial初始 conditions条件 for the universe宇宙.
32
120000
3000
周围条件不甚了了.
02:16
However然而, this division into laws法律 of evolution演化 and initial初始 conditions条件
33
124000
5000
然而, 这演化律 及 初始条件 之界分
02:21
depends依靠 on time and space空间 being存在 separate分离 and distinct不同.
34
129000
4000
乃囿於"时.空分明"之概念内.
02:27
Under extreme极端 conditions条件, general一般 relativity相对论 and quantum量子 theory理论
35
135000
4000
而於极端条件下, 广义相对论及量子论
02:31
allow允许 time to behave表现 like another另一个 dimension尺寸 of space空间.
36
139000
4000
容许“时间”如同“空间”的另一维度般运作.
02:39
This removes移除了 the distinction分别 between之间 time and space空间,
37
147000
4000
这就将 '时.空'之间区别移除了
02:43
and means手段 the laws法律 of evolution演化 can also determine确定 the initial初始 state.
38
151000
5000
即是说 演化律 亦可决定初始状态.
02:51
The universe宇宙 can spontaneously自发 create创建 itself本身 out of nothing.
39
159000
4000
宇宙可以由无变有 自我创生!
02:55
Moreover此外, we can calculate计算 a probability可能性 that the universe宇宙
40
163000
8000
我们甚至可以计算出
03:03
was created创建 in different不同 states状态.
41
171000
2000
宇宙在不同情况下诞生的可能性。
03:05
These predictions预测 are in excellent优秀 agreement协议
42
173000
3000
这些推论与 WMAP卫星
03:08
with observations意见 by the WMAPWMAP satellite卫星
43
176000
4000
所观测到的宇宙微波背景辐射
03:12
of the cosmic宇宙的 microwave微波 background背景,
44
180000
2000
(即大爆炸之痕迹)
03:14
which哪一个 is an imprint版本说明 of the very early universe宇宙.
45
182000
4000
相当一致.
03:18
We think we have solved解决了 the mystery神秘 of creation创建.
46
186000
5000
我们相信已勘破了创造奥秘
03:24
Maybe we should patent专利 the universe宇宙
47
192000
2000
或许我们应将 '宇宙' 给注册
03:26
and charge收费 everyone大家 royalties for their existence存在.
48
194000
4000
然后向每个生存於世的人收 '生活费'.
03:33
I now turn to the second第二 big question:
49
201000
3000
现在我转到第二个 大问题 去
03:36
are we alone单独, or is there other life in the universe宇宙?
50
204000
4000
宇宙中就只有我们, 还是另有其它生物?
03:44
We believe that life arose出现 spontaneously自发 on the Earth地球,
51
212000
3000
我们相信生命从地球自我衍生,
03:47
so it must必须 be possible可能 for life to appear出现 on other suitable适当 planets行星,
52
215000
5000
故此生命确有可能出现於其它合适星球 -
03:52
of which哪一个 there seem似乎 to be a large number in the galaxy星系.
53
220000
4000
星河中看来可有不少呢.
03:56
But we don't know how life first appeared出现.
54
224000
5000
但我们仍未搅通生命是如何生成:
04:04
We have two pieces of observational观察 evidence证据
55
232000
3000
对於生命诞生的可能契机
04:07
on the probability可能性 of life appearing出现.
56
235000
3000
我们有两项观测得来的佐证.
04:12
The first is that we have fossils化石 of algae藻类
57
240000
3000
首先我们有来自35亿年前
04:15
from 3.5 billion十亿 years年份 ago.
58
243000
3000
的海藻化石.
04:19
The Earth地球 was formed形成 4.6 billion十亿 years年份 ago
59
247000
4000
地球於46亿年前形成
04:23
and was probably大概 too hot for about the first half billion十亿 years年份.
60
251000
4000
头约5亿年相信仍太热了.
04:33
So life appeared出现 on Earth地球
61
261000
2000
故此生命於
04:35
within half a billion十亿 years年份 of it being存在 possible可能,
62
263000
3000
其变得可能后的5亿年间方出现,
04:39
which哪一个 is short compared相比 to the 10-billion-year-billion年 lifetime一生
63
267000
3000
这相对於像地球之类百亿年期的星体
04:42
of a planet行星 of Earth地球 type类型.
64
270000
2000
只算是一段短时间.
04:45
This suggests提示 that a probability可能性 of life appearing出现 is reasonably合理 high.
65
273000
5000
这意味着生命出现的概率是颇高的.
04:50
If it was very low, one would have expected预期 it
66
278000
4000
若是低的话, 就可预期要花尽
04:54
to take most of the ten billion十亿 years年份 available可得到.
67
282000
4000
百亿年的绝大部分才会出现.
04:58
On the other hand, we don't seem似乎 to have been visited参观 by aliens外星人.
68
286000
5000
另一方面, 我们似乎从未见有外星人到访.
05:04
I am discounting贴现 the reports报告 of UFOs不明飞行物.
69
292000
3000
我不信那些什么 '不明物体' 的报导.
05:07
Why would they appear出现 only to cranks曲柄 and weirdoes怪人?
70
295000
4000
它们干吗要单向那些古古怪怪的人现身呢?
05:14
If there is a government政府 conspiracy阴谋 to suppress压制 the reports报告
71
302000
4000
若真有一个甚麽政府阴谋要将报导打住
05:18
and keep for itself本身 the scientific科学 knowledge知识 the aliens外星人 bring带来,
72
306000
5000
从而将外星人所带来之科学识据为己有,
05:23
it seems似乎 to have been a singularly ineffective不灵 policy政策 so far.
73
311000
4000
那可真像个既离奇, 亦从未见效的举措.
05:27
Furthermore此外, despite尽管 an extensive广泛 search搜索 by the SETISETI project项目,
74
315000
9000
再说, 即便SETI计划已进行广泛探索,
05:37
we haven't没有 heard听说 any alien外侨 television电视 quiz测验 shows节目.
75
325000
4000
我们还没有收听到任何外太空电视答问节目.
05:41
This probably大概 indicates指示 that there are no alien外侨 civilizations文明
76
329000
5000
这可能昭示在我们现阶段文明发展之
05:46
at our stage阶段 of development发展
77
334000
2000
方圆数百光年范围之内
05:48
within a radius半径 of a few少数 hundred light years年份.
78
336000
4000
并没有其它外星异文化.
05:53
Issuing发行 an insurance保险 policy政策
79
341000
2000
卖保险给那些
05:55
against反对 abduction绑架 by aliens外星人 seems似乎 a pretty漂亮 safe安全 bet赌注.
80
343000
4000
怕被外星人绑架的人,看来是个不错的选择。
06:02
This brings带来 me to the last of the big questions问题:
81
350000
3000
这送我到了最后一个大问题:
06:05
the future未来 of the human人的 race种族.
82
353000
2000
人类的前途.
06:08
If we are the only intelligent智能 beings众生 in the galaxy星系,
83
356000
4000
若我们是星河里唯一智能生物,
06:12
we should make sure we survive生存 and continue继续.
84
360000
3000
就必须确保自己能存活并延续下去.
06:19
But we are entering进入 an increasingly日益 dangerous危险 period of our history历史.
85
367000
4000
但我们正迈入历史中一个愈发危险的时段.
06:23
Our population人口 and our use of the finite有限 resources资源 of planet行星 Earth地球
86
371000
9000
我们的人囗和对地球有限资源的耗用,
06:33
are growing生长 exponentially成倍, along沿 with our technical技术 ability能力
87
381000
4000
正以几何级数增长, 相随的
06:37
to change更改 the environment环境 for good or ill生病.
88
385000
3000
是我们将环境或弄好或弄垮的技术才能,
06:44
But our genetic遗传 code
89
392000
2000
至於我们的基因指令
06:46
still carries携带 the selfish自私 and aggressive侵略性 instincts本能
90
394000
3000
则仍带着那自私和好斗的本质
06:49
that were of survival生存 advantage优点 in the past过去.
91
397000
3000
这或有利於我们过往求存
06:52
It will be difficult enough足够 to avoid避免 disaster灾害
92
400000
7000
却又让我们於往后数百年内
07:00
in the next下一个 hundred years年份,
93
408000
1000
人祸难逃.
07:01
let alone单独 the next下一个 thousand or million百万.
94
409000
3000
更别说未来千百万年了.
07:08
Our only chance机会 of long-term长期 survival生存
95
416000
3000
我们长活下去的唯一机会
07:11
is not to remain lurking潜伏 on planet行星 Earth地球,
96
419000
4000
不是一直呆着在地球
07:15
but to spread传播 out into space空间.
97
423000
2000
而是冲出太空去.
07:17
The answers答案 to these big questions问题
98
425000
5000
这些大问题之解答
07:22
show显示 that we have made制作 remarkable卓越 progress进展 in the last hundred years年份.
99
430000
5000
显示我们于过去数百年取得可观进展.
07:27
But if we want to continue继续 beyond the next下一个 hundred years年份,
100
435000
5000
可若要超越未来数百年,
07:32
our future未来 is in space空间.
101
440000
2000
我们的前途在於太空.
07:34
That is why I am in favor偏爱 of manned载人 --
102
442000
4000
正因此,我较倾向于 "人" 控 - ( man 於英语中可单指'人'或'男人')
07:39
or should I say, personedpersoned -- space空间 flight飞行.
103
447000
3000
或许我应说, 由人驾驶之太空旅航.
07:42
All of my life I have sought追捧 to understand理解 the universe宇宙
104
450000
10000
我一生都在探究想要了解宇宙
07:52
and find answers答案 to these questions问题.
105
460000
2000
并找出这些问题之答案.
07:54
I have been very lucky幸运
106
462000
3000
我一直都非常幸运
07:57
that my disability失能 has not been a serious严重 handicap阻碍.
107
465000
4000
我的残疾并没造成严重障礙;
08:01
Indeed确实, it has probably大概 given特定 me more time than most people
108
469000
5000
说真的, 这反倒让我比大部分人获得更多时间
08:06
to pursue追求 the quest寻求 for knowledge知识.
109
474000
2000
以从事知识之追求.
08:08
The ultimate最终 goal目标 is a complete完成 theory理论 of the universe宇宙,
110
476000
7000
终极目标是一套完备的宇宙论,
08:16
and we are making制造 good progress进展.
111
484000
2000
而我们已有良好进展.
08:18
Thank you for listening.
112
486000
5000
感谢您们的聆听.
08:26
Chris克里斯 Anderson安德森: Professor教授, if you had to guess猜测 either way,
113
494000
3000
安德信: 教授, 若您必须二选其一作猜测,
08:29
do you now believe that it is more likely容易 than not
114
497000
4000
此刻您是较相信还是较不相信
08:33
that we are alone单独 in the Milky乳白色 Way,
115
501000
3000
我们是天河中唯一
08:36
as a civilization文明 of our level水平 of intelligence情报 or higher更高?
116
504000
5000
现水平或更高水平之智能文化?
08:57
This answer回答 took seven minutes分钟, and really gave me an insight眼光
117
525000
6000
准备这答案已花了7分多钟, 真让我深切体会到
09:03
into the incredible难以置信 act法案 of generosity慷慨 this whole整个 talk was for TEDTED.
118
531000
5000
这整个演讲为TED所付出之 让人难以置信之慷慨.
09:18
Stephen斯蒂芬 Hawking霍金: I think it quite相当 likely容易 that we are the only civilization文明
119
546000
5000
霍金: 我想我们应该是
09:23
within several一些 hundred light years年份;
120
551000
2000
数百光年范围内之独一文明;
09:26
otherwise除此以外 we would have heard听说 radio无线电 waves波浪.
121
554000
3000
否则我们应已收听到电波.
09:29
The alternative替代 is that civilizations文明 don't last very long,
122
557000
7000
另一种可能是, 该等文明都维持不久,
09:37
but destroy破坏 themselves他们自己.
123
565000
1000
就自我毁灭掉.
09:38
CACA: Professor教授 Hawking霍金, thank you for that answer回答.
124
566000
5000
安德信: 霍金教授, 谢谢您的解答.
09:44
We will take it as a salutary有益 warning警告, I think,
125
572000
2000
我想, 我们会将之作为
09:46
for the rest休息 of our conference会议 this week.
126
574000
3000
这一周余下会谈之座右铭.
09:50
Professor教授, we really thank you for the extraordinary非凡 effort功夫 you made制作
127
578000
4000
教授, 我们衷心感谢您今天为与我们分享您的问题
09:54
to share分享 your questions问题 with us today今天.
128
582000
3000
所作出之卓越贡献.
09:57
Thank you very much indeed确实.
129
585000
1000
真的非常感谢您.
09:58
(Applause掌声)
130
586000
8000
(掌声)
Translated by James Wong
Reviewed by Zachary Lin Zhao

▲Back to top

ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Stephen Hawking - Theoretical physicist
Stephen Hawking's scientific investigations have shed light on the origins of the cosmos, the nature of time and the ultimate fate of the universe. His bestselling books for a general audience have given an appreciation of physics to millions.

Why you should listen

Stephen Hawking is perhaps the world's most famous living physicist. A specialist in cosmology and quantum gravity and a devotee of black holes, his work has probed the origins of the cosmos, the nature of time and the universe's ultimate fate -- earning him accolades including induction into the Order of the British Empire. To the public, he's best known as an author of bestsellers such as The Universe in a Nutshell and A Brief History of Time, which have brought an appreciation of theoretical physics to millions.

Though the motor neuron disorder ALS has confined Hawking to a wheelchair, it hasn't stopped him from lecturing widely, making appearances on television shows such as Star Trek: The Next Generation and The Simpsons -- and planning a trip into orbit with Richard Branson's Virgin Galactic. (He recently experienced weightlessness aboard Zero Gravity Corporation's "Vomit Comet.") A true academic celebrity, he uses his public appearances to raise awareness about potential global disasters -- such as global warming -- and to speak out for the future of humanity: "Getting a portion of the human race permanently off the planet is imperative for our future as a species," he says.

Hawking serves as Lucasian Professor of Mathematics at the University of Cambridge, where he continues to contribute to both high-level physics and the popular understanding of our universe.

More profile about the speaker
Stephen Hawking | Speaker | TED.com