EG 2008
Dan Ariely: Are we in control of our own decisions?
Dan Ariely:, Har vi kontrol over vores beslutninger?
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Adfærdsøkonom Dan Ariely, forfatter til "Predictably Irrational" (Forudsigeligt irrationel), benytter sig af visuelle illusioner og hans egne overraskende (og til tider chokerende) forskningsresultater, til at vise os hvordan vi ikke er så rationelle som vi tror når vi tager beslutninger.
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economist
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why. Full bio
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I'll tell you a little bit about irrational behavior.
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Jeg vil fortælle jer lidt om irrationel opførsel.
00:19
Not yours, of course -- other people's.
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Selvfølgelig ikke jeres. Andre personers.
00:21
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
00:22
So after being at MIT for a few years,
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Efter at have været på MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) et par år,
00:26
I realized that writing academic papers is not that exciting.
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blev jeg klar over, at det ikke er særligt spændende at skrive akademiske afhandlinger.
00:30
You know, I don't know how many of those you read,
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Nu ved jeg ikke hvor mange af dem i har læst,
00:32
but it's not fun to read and often not fun to write --
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men de er ikke sjove at læse og er ofte ikke sjove at skrive.
00:35
even worse to write.
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Faktisk meget værre at skrive.
00:37
So I decided to try and write something more fun.
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Så jeg besluttede, at prøve og skrive noget der er mere sjovt.
00:40
And I came up with an idea that I will write a cookbook.
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og jeg kom på den idé at jeg ville skrive en kogebog.
00:44
And the title for my cookbook was going to be
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Og titlen på min kogebog skulle være
00:46
"Dining Without Crumbs: The Art of Eating Over the Sink."
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"Spise uden krummer: Kunsten af spise over håndvasken."
00:49
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
00:51
And it was going to be a look at life through the kitchen.
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Og det skulle være et kig på livet, gennem køkkenet.
00:54
And I was quite excited about this. I was going to talk
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Og jeg var meget spændt på dette. Jeg ville snakke lidt
00:56
a little bit about research, a little bit about the kitchen.
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om forskning og en lille smule om køkkenet.
00:59
You know, we do so much in the kitchen I thought this would be interesting.
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I ved, vi gør så mange ting i køkkenet, så jeg syntes det ville blive interessant.
01:02
And I wrote a couple of chapters.
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Jeg skrev et par kapitler.
01:04
And I took it to MIT press and they said,
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Og jeg tog det til MIT press og de sagde
01:06
"Cute, but not for us. Go and find somebody else."
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"Sødt, men ikke for os. Gå ud og find nogle andre."
01:10
I tried other people and everybody said the same thing,
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Jeg prøvede andre, men alle sagde det samme.
01:12
"Cute. Not for us."
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"Sødt. Ikke for os."
01:15
Until somebody said,
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Indtil en eller anden sagde,
01:18
"Look, if you're serious about this,
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"Hør, hvis du er seriøs,
01:20
you first have to write a book about your research. You have to publish something,
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skal du først skrive en bog om din forskning. Do bliver nød til at udgive noget.
01:23
and then you'll get the opportunity to write something else.
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Og herefter får du muligheden for at skrive noget andet.
01:25
If you really want to do it you have to do it."
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Hvis du virkelig vil gøre det, så skal du først gøre dét."
01:27
So I said, "You know, I really don't want to write about my research.
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Så jeg sagde, "Ved du hvad, jeg vil virkelig ikke skrive om min forskning.
01:30
I do this all day long. I want to write something else.
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Jeg gør det her hele dagen lang. Jeg vil skrive noget andet.
01:32
Something a bit more free, less constrained."
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noget mere frit, mindre regelbundet."
01:35
And this person was very forceful and said,
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Den her person var meget bestemt og sagde
01:38
"Look. That's the only way you'll ever do it."
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"Hør, det er den eneste måde hvor du nogensinde vil få det gjort"
01:40
So I said, "Okay, if I have to do it -- "
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Så jeg sagde, "Okay, hvis jeg blive nødt til at gøre det."
01:43
I had a sabbatical. I said, "I'll write about my research
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Jeg tog fri og sagde "Jeg vil skrive om min forskning
01:46
if there is no other way. And then I'll get to do my cookbook."
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hvis der ikke er andre veje, og så vil jeg kunne lave min kogebog "
01:48
So I wrote a book on my research.
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Så jeg skrev en bog om min forskning
01:51
And it turned out to be quite fun in two ways.
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og det viste sig at være sjovt på to måder,
01:54
First of all, I enjoyed writing.
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for det første, nød jeg at skrive,
01:57
But the more interesting thing was that
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men det mere interessante var
01:59
I started learning from people.
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at jeg begyndte at lære fra andre.
02:01
It's a fantastic time to write,
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Det er en fantastisk tid at skrive i,
02:03
because there is so much feedback you can get from people.
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for der er så meget kritik man kan få fra andre.
02:05
People write me about their personal experience,
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Folk skriver til mig med deres personlige oplevelser,
02:08
and about their examples, and what they disagree,
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og om deres eksempler og hvad de er uenige i,
02:10
and nuances.
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og nuancer.
02:12
And even being here -- I mean the last few days,
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Også det at være her, de sidste par dage
02:14
I've known really heights of obsessive behavior
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har jeg opnået nye højder indenfor tvangsmæssig adfærd
02:17
I never thought about.
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jeg aldrig havde tænkt over
02:19
(Laughter)
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(latter)
02:20
Which I think is just fascinating.
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Hvilket jeg synes er fascinerende.
02:22
I will tell you a little bit about irrational behavior.
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Jeg vil fortælle jer en smule om irrationel adfærd.
02:25
And I want to start by giving you some examples of visual illusion
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Og jeg vil starte med at give jer nogle eksempler på visuelle illusioner.
02:28
as a metaphor for rationality.
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som en metafor for irrationalitet.
02:30
So think about these two tables.
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Tænk på de her to borde,
02:32
And you must have seen this illusion.
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og i må have set den her illusion.
02:34
If I asked you what's longer, the vertical line on the table on the left,
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Hvis jeg spurgte jer :"hvilken streg der er længst
02:37
or the horizontal line on the table on the right?
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den lodrette på det venstre bord eller den vandrette på det højre?"
02:40
Which one seems longer?
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Hvilken en virker længst?
02:43
Can anybody see anything but the left one being longer?
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Er der nogen der ikke kan se at den venstre er længst?
02:46
No, right? It's impossible.
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Nej vel? det er umuligt.
02:48
But the nice thing about visual illusion is we can easily demonstrate mistakes.
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Men det gode ved illusioner er at vi nemt kan vise fejl
02:51
So I can put some lines on; it doesn't help.
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så jeg kan sætte nogle streger, hvilket ikke hjælper
02:54
I can animate the lines.
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jeg kan animere stregerne
02:56
And to the extent you believe I didn't shrink the lines,
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og hvis i ikke tror jeg gør stregerne kortere,
02:58
which I didn't, I've proven to you that your eyes were deceiving you.
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hvilket jeg ikke gjorde, har jeg vist at jeres øjne snød jer.
03:03
Now, the interesting thing about this
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Det interessante ved det her
03:05
is when I take the lines away,
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er at hvis jeg fjerner stregerne,
03:07
it's as if you haven't learned anything in the last minute.
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er det som om i ingenting har lært
03:09
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
03:12
You can't look at this and say, "Okay now I see reality as it is."
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I kan ikke se på det her og sige "okay, nu ser jeg det rigtige"
03:15
Right? It's impossible to overcome this
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Ikke sandt? det er umuligt at undgå
03:17
sense that this is indeed longer.
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at tro at den her faktisk er længere.
03:20
Our intuition is really fooling us in a repeatable, predictable, consistent way.
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Vores intuition snyder os på den gentagelig og forudsigelig måde,
03:23
And there is almost nothing we can do about it,
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og der er næsten ingenting vi kan gøre ved det,
03:26
aside from taking a ruler and starting to measure it.
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bortset fra at tage en lineal og begynde at måle.
03:29
Here is another one -- this is one of my favorite illusions.
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Her er en mere -- det her er en af mine yndlingsillusioner.
03:32
What do you see the color that top arrow is pointing to?
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Hvilken farve peger den øverste pil på?
03:35
Brown. Thank you.
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Brun, mange tak.
03:37
The bottom one? Yellow.
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Den nederste pil? Gul.
03:39
Turns out they're identical.
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Det viser sig at de er ens.
03:41
Can anybody see them as identical?
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Er der nogen der kan se at de er ens?
03:43
Very very hard.
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Det er meget meget svært.
03:45
I can cover the rest of the cube up.
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Jeg kan dække resten af terningen,
03:47
And if I cover the rest of the cube you can see that they are identical.
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og hvis jeg dækker den, ser i at de er ens.
03:50
And if you don't believe me you can get the slide later
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og hvis i ikke tror på mig kan i få den bagefter
03:52
and do some arts and crafts and see that they're identical.
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og klippe-klistre og se at de er ens.
03:55
But again it's the same story
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Igen er det den samme historie:
03:57
that if we take the background away,
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Hvis vi tager baggrunden væk,
03:59
the illusion comes back. Right.
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kommer illusionen tilbage. ikke?
04:01
There is no way for us not to see this illusion.
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Der er ingen måde at undgå at se illusionen.
04:04
I guess maybe if you're colorblind I don't think you can see that.
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Måske hvis du er farveblind.
04:07
I want you to think about illusion as a metaphor.
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Jeg vil have at i tænker på illusionerne som en metafor.
04:10
Vision is one of the best things we do.
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At se er en af de ting vi er bedst til.
04:12
We have a huge part of our brain dedicated to vision --
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Vi bruger en stor del af vores hjerne på at se --
04:14
bigger than dedicated to anything else.
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en større del end vi bruger til noget andet.
04:16
We do more vision more hours of the day than we do anything else.
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Vi ser i flere timer om dagen end vi gør noget andet.
04:20
And we are evolutionarily designed to do vision.
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og vi er udviklet til at se,
04:22
And if we have these predictable repeatable mistakes in vision,
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og hvis vi laver disse forudsigelige og gentagelige fejl med synet,
04:25
which we're so good at,
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som vi er så gode til,
04:27
what's the chance that we don't make even more mistakes
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hvorfor skulle vi så ikke lave endnu flere fejl
04:29
in something we're not as good at --
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med noget vi ikke er så gode til --
04:31
for example, financial decision making:
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som for eksempel, økonomisk beslutningstagen:
04:33
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
04:35
something we don't have an evolutionary reason to do,
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Noget vi ikke har nogen evolutionær grund til at gøre,
04:37
we don't have a specialized part of the brain,
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vi har ikke en specialiseret del af hjernen,
04:39
and we don't do that many hours of the day.
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og vi gør det ikke så mange timer om dagen.
04:41
And the argument is in those cases
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og argumentet er at når det er sådan
04:44
it might be the issue that we actually make many more mistakes
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kan det måske være at vi laver endnu flere fejl.
04:48
and, worse, not have an easy way to see them.
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og værre endnu, at vi ikke har en nem måde at se dem.
04:51
Because in visual illusions we can easily demonstrate the mistakes;
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for ved visuelle illusioner kan vi nemt vise fejlene,
04:54
in cognitive illusion it's much, much harder
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ved tankemæssige illusioner er det meget, meget sværere
04:56
to demonstrate to people the mistakes.
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at vise folk fejlene.
04:58
So I want to show you some cognitive illusions,
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Så jeg vil vise jer nogle tankemæssige illusioner,
05:01
or decision-making illusions, in the same way.
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eller beslutningsmæssige illusioner, på samme måde.
05:04
And this is one of my favorite plots in social sciences.
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og det her er et af mine yndlingsgrafer i socialstudier.
05:07
It's from a paper by Johnson and Goldstein.
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Det er fra en artikel af Johnson og Goldstein,
05:11
And it basically shows
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og basalt set viser den
05:13
the percentage of people who indicated
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procentdelen af folk der siger
05:15
they would be interested in giving their organs to donation.
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at de gerne vil være organdonorer
05:19
And these are different countries in Europe. And you basically
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i forskellige lande i Europa, og grundlæggende
05:21
see two types of countries:
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ser man to slags lande :
05:23
countries on the right, that seem to be giving a lot;
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Landene til højre som ser ud til at donere meget;
05:25
and countries on the left that seem to giving very little,
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og landene til venstre der ser ud til at donere lidt,
05:28
or much less.
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eller meget mindre,
05:30
The question is, why? Why do some countries give a lot
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spørgsmålet er, hvorfor? hvorfor donerer nogle lande meget
05:32
and some countries give a little?
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og nogle lande kun en smule?
05:34
When you ask people this question,
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Når du stiller det spørgsmål til folk,
05:36
they usually think that it has to be something about culture.
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tror de som regel at det er pga. forskellige kulturer,
05:38
Right? How much do you care about people?
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Hvor meget du bekymrer dig om folk,
05:40
Giving your organs to somebody else
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at give dine organer til en anden,
05:42
is probably about how much you care about society, how linked you are.
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har nok noget at gøre med hvor knyttet du er til samfundet.
05:45
Or maybe it is about religion.
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Måske handler det om religion,
05:47
But, if you look at this plot,
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men hvis du ser på det her,
05:49
you can see that countries that we think about as very similar
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så kan du se at lande som vi tænker som meget ens
05:52
actually exhibit very different behavior.
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faktisk opfører sig meget forskelligt.
05:55
For example, Sweden is all the way on the right,
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for eksempel, Sverige er helt ude til højre,
05:57
and Denmark, that we think is culturally very similar,
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og Danmark, som vi tænker som kulturelt meget ens,
06:00
is all the way on the left.
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er helt ude til venstre.
06:02
Germany is on the left. And Austria is on the right.
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Tyskland er til venstre, og Østrig er til højre,
06:06
The Netherlands is on the left. And Belgium is on the right.
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Holland er til venstre, og Belgien er til højre,
06:09
And finally, depending on your particular version
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og til sidst, afhængig af din personlige mening
06:12
of European similarity,
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om europæiske ligheder,
06:14
you can think about the U.K and France as either similar culturally or not.
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tænker du England og Frankrig som kulturelt ens eller ej,
06:19
But it turns out that from organ donation they are very different.
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men det viser sig at med organdonation er de meget forskellige.
06:23
By the way, the Netherlands is an interesting story.
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Forresten, Holland er et spændende tilfælde,
06:25
You see the Netherlands is kind of the biggest of the small group.
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de er de højeste i den lave gruppe.
06:30
Turns out that they got to 28 percent
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Det viser sig at de fik 28% til at donere
06:33
after mailing every household in the country a letter
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ved at sende et brev til hver husholdning
06:36
begging people to join this organ donation program.
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hvor de bad folk om at melde sig til donorprogrammet.
06:39
You know the expression, "Begging only gets you so far"?
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I kender udtrykket "Du kommer kun så langt ved at tigge"?
06:42
It's 28 percent in organ donation.
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det er 28% i organdonation.
06:45
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
06:47
But whatever the countries on the right are doing
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Men hvad end landene til højre gør,
06:49
they are doing a much better job than begging.
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så gør de noget meget bedre end at tigge,
06:51
So what are they doing?
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så hvad gør de faktisk?
06:53
Turns out the secret has to do with a form at the DMV.
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Det viser sig at det har at gøre med et skema hos motorkontoret,
06:56
And here is the story.
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her er historien :
06:58
The countries on the left have a form at the DMV
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Landene til venstre har et skema
07:00
that looks something like this.
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der ser nogenlunde sådan her ud.
07:02
Check the box below if you want to participate
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Sæt kryds hvis du vil deltage
07:04
in the organ donor program.
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i organdonorprogrammet.
07:06
And what happens?
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og hvad sker der?
07:08
People don't check, and they don't join.
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Folk sætter ikke kryds, og de melder sig ikke til.
07:11
The countries on the right, the ones that give a lot,
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Landene til højre, de der giver meget,
07:13
have a slightly different form.
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har et lidt anderledes skema.
07:15
It says check the box below if you don't want to participate.
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det beder dig om at sætte kryds hvis du ikke vil deltage.
07:18
Interestingly enough, when people get this,
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interessant nok, når folk får det her,
07:20
they again don't check -- but now they join.
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sætter de igen ikke kryds -- men nu melder de sig til.
07:23
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
07:26
Now think about what this means.
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Tænk på hvad det her betyder,
07:29
We wake up in the morning and we feel we make decisions.
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vi står op om morgenen og tror at vi beslutter ting
07:33
We wake up in the morning and we open the closet
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Vi står op og åbner skabet,
07:35
and we feel that we decide what to wear.
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og føler at vi bestemmer hvad vi tager på,
07:37
And we open the refrigerator and we feel that we decide what to eat.
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så åbner vi køleskabet og føler at vi vælger vores mad,
07:40
What this is actually saying is that
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hvad det her faktisk viser er
07:42
much of these decisions are not residing within us.
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at mange af de her beslutninger ikke tages af os,
07:44
They are residing in the person who is designing that form.
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men tages af personen der designer skemaet.
07:47
When you walk into the DMV,
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Når du går ind i motorkontoret,
07:50
the person who designed the form will have a huge influence
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vil personen der har designet skemaet have stor indflydelse
07:52
on what you'll end up doing.
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på hvad du ender med at gøre.
07:54
Now it's also very hard to intuit these results. Think about it for yourself.
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Det er svært at huske de her resultater, tænk over det
07:58
How many of you believe
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hvor mange af jer tror
08:00
that if you went to renew your license tomorrow,
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at hvis i fornyede jeres kørekort imorgen,
08:02
and you went to the DMV,
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og i gik ind til motorkontoret
08:04
and you would encounter one of these forms,
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og stødte på et af de her skemaer,
08:06
that it would actually change your own behavior?
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at det faktisk ville ændre jeres adfærd?
08:09
Very, very hard to think that you will influence us.
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Det er svært at tro at det vil påvirke os.
08:11
We can say, "Oh, these funny Europeans, of course it would influence them."
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Vi siger "De sære europæere, selvfølgeligt vil det påvirke dem"
08:13
But when it comes to us,
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men når det handler om os selv
08:16
we have such a feeling that we are at the driver's seat,
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føler vi at det er os der bestemmer,
08:18
we have such a feeling that we are in control,
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Vi føler det i sådan en grad,
08:20
and we are making the decision,
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og vi tager de her beslutninger,
08:22
that it's very hard to even accept
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at det er meget svært at acceptere
08:24
the idea that we actually have
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at vi faktisk bare har
08:26
an illusion of making a decision, rather than an actual decision.
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illusionen af at tage en beslutning.
08:30
Now, you might say,
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Nu siger i måske,
08:32
"These are decisions we don't care about."
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"Det her er beslutninger vi er ligeglade med."
08:35
In fact, by definition, these are decisions
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Faktisk, per definition, er det her beslutninger
08:37
about something that will happen to us after we die.
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om noget der skal ske efter at vi er døde,
08:39
How could we care about something less
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hvordan kunne man være mere ligeglad
08:42
than something that happens after we die?
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end med noget der sker efter man er død?
08:44
So a standard economist, someone who believes in rationality,
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Så en standard økonom, en der tror på det rationelle,
08:47
would say, "You know what? The cost of lifting the pencil
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ville sige "Ved du hvad? det koster mere at løfte blyanten
08:50
and marking a V is higher than the possible
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og sætte kryds,
08:52
benefit of the decision,
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end hvad jeg får ud af beslutningen
08:54
so that's why we get this effect."
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og det er derfor der er denne her effekt."
08:56
But, in fact, it's not because it's easy.
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Men faktisk, er det ikke fordi det er nemt,
08:59
It's not because it's trivial. It's not because we don't care.
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det er ikke fordi de er ligegyldigt eller vi er ligeglade,
09:02
It's the opposite. It's because we care.
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det er fordi vi netop ikke er ligeglade.
09:05
It's difficult and it's complex.
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Det er svært og det er indviklet,
09:07
And it's so complex that we don't know what to do.
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og det er så indviklet at vi ikke ved hvad vi skal gøre,
09:09
And because we have no idea what to do
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og fordi vi ikke ved det
09:11
we just pick whatever it was that was chosen for us.
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vælger vi bare det der var blevet valgt for os.
09:15
I'll give you one more example for this.
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Jeg giver jer et eksempel mere på det,
09:17
This is from a paper by Redelmeier and Schaefer.
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det her er fra en artikel af Redelmeier og Schaefer.
09:20
And they said, "Well, this effect also happens to experts,
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og de siger "Det sker også for eksperter,
09:23
people who are well-paid, experts in their decisions,
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folk der er godt lønnet og eksperter
09:26
do it a lot."
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gør det her ofte."
09:28
And they basically took a group of physicians.
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De tog en gruppe læger
09:30
And they presented to them a case study of a patient.
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og viste dem et eksempel på en patient,
09:32
Here is a patient. He is a 67-year-old farmer.
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her er patienten, han er en 67-årig landmand,
09:36
He's been suffering from a right hip pain for a while.
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som i noget tid har lidt af smerter i højre hofte,
09:38
And then they said to the physician,
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så sagde de til lægen,
09:40
"You decided a few weeks ago
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"Du besluttede for nogle uger siden,
09:42
that nothing is working for this patient.
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at intet virker på den her patient,
09:44
All these medications, nothing seems to be working.
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intet af det her medicin virker til at virke,
09:46
So you refer the patient to hip replacement therapy.
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så du henviser patienten til at få udskiftet hoften.
09:49
Hip replacement. Okay?"
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En hofteoperation, ikke?"
09:51
So the patient is on a path to have his hip replaced.
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Så patienten er på vej til at få udskiftet hoften,
09:54
And then they said to half the physicians, they said,
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og så siger de til halvdelen af lægerne
09:56
"Yesterday you reviewed the patient's case
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"Igår gennemgik du patientens journal,
09:58
and you realized that you forgot to try one medication.
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og du indså at du glemte at prøve en medicin,
10:01
You did not try ibuprofen.
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du glemte ibuprofen.
10:04
What do you do? Do you pull the patient back and try ibuprofen?
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Hvad gør du? trækker du patienten tilbage og prøver ibuprofen?
10:07
Or do you let them go and have hip replacement?"
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eller lader du dem få udskiftet hoften?"
10:10
Well the good news is that most physicians in this case
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Den gode nyhed er at de fleste læger i det her tilfælde
10:12
decided to pull the patient and try the ibuprofen.
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trak patienten tilbage og prøvede ibuprofenen,
10:15
Very good for the physicians.
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godt for lægerne,
10:17
The other group of the physicians, they said,
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Til den anden gruppe af læger sagde de
10:19
"Yesterday when you reviewed the case
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"Igår da du gennemgik journalen
10:21
you discovered there were two medications you didn't try out yet,
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opdagede du at der var to slags medicin du ikke har prøvet
10:23
ibuprofen and piroxicam."
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ibuprofen og piroxicam."
10:26
And they said, "You have two medications you didn't try out yet. What do you do?
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"du har to slags medicin du ikke har prøvet, hvad gør du?
10:29
You let them go. Or you pull them back.
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Lader du dem fortsætte, eller trækker du dem tilbage?
10:31
And if you pull them back do you try ibuprofen or piroxicam? Which one?"
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Og hvis du trækker dem tilbage, hvilken medicin prøver du så?"
10:34
Now think of it. This decision
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Tænk over det, den her beslutning
10:36
makes it as easy to let the patient continue with hip replacement.
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gør det ligeså nemt som før, at lade patienten fortsætte,
10:39
But pulling them back, all of the sudden becomes more complex.
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men at trække dem tilbage, bliver mere indviklet.
10:42
There is one more decision.
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Der er nu en ny beslutning.
10:44
What happens now?
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Hvad sker der så?
10:46
Majority of the physicians now choose to let the patient go
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Nu beslutter størstedelen af lægerne at lade patienten fortsætte
10:49
to hip replacement.
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med at få hoften udskiftet.
10:51
I hope this worries you, by the way --
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Jeg håber det her bekymrer jer forresten,
10:53
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
10:54
when you go to see your physician.
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Når man tager ind og ser sin læge,
10:56
The thing is is that no physician would ever say,
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der er ingen læge der nogensinde ville sige,
10:59
"Piroxicam, ibuprofen, hip replacement.
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"Piroxicam, ibuprofen, hofteudskiftning.
11:01
Let's go for hip replacement."
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lad os udskifte hoften."
11:03
But the moment you set this as the default
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Men i det øjeblik hvor udskiftning bliver standardløsning
11:06
it has a huge power over whatever people end up doing.
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har den en stor magt over hvad folk ender med at gøre.
11:10
I'll give you a couple of more examples on irrational decision-making.
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Jeg giver jer et par eksempler mere på irrationel beslutningstagen.
11:13
Imagine I give you a choice.
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forestil jer at jeg giver jer et valg.
11:15
Do you want to go for a weekend to Rome?
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Vil du helst en weekend til Rom?
11:17
All expenses paid:
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Alt betalt:
11:19
hotel, transportation, food, breakfast,
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Hotel, transport, mad, morgenmad,
11:21
a continental breakfast, everything.
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stor morgenmad, alt.
11:23
Or a weekend in Paris?
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Eller en weekend til Paris?
11:25
Now, a weekend in Paris, a weekend in Rome, these are different things;
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En weekend i Paris og en i Rom er forskellige
11:28
they have different food, different culture, different art.
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de har forskellig mad, kultur og kunst.
11:30
Now imagine I added a choice to the set
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Forestil jer at jeg tilføjede en mulighed
11:32
that nobody wanted.
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som ingen havde lyst til
11:34
Imagine I said, "A weekend in Rome,
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forestil jer at jeg sagde "En weekend i Rom,
11:36
a weekend in Paris, or having your car stolen?"
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en weekend i Paris, eller at din bil bliver stjålet?"
11:39
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
11:42
It's a funny idea, because why would having your car stolen,
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Det er en sjov ide, for hvorfor ville den mulighed
11:45
in this set, influence anything?
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ændre på noget?
11:47
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
11:49
But what if the option to have your car stolen
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Men hvad nu hvis det at få din bil stjålet
11:52
was not exactly like this.
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ikke var helt sådan.
11:54
What if it was a trip to Rome, all expenses paid,
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hvad hvis det var, en tur til Rom, med alt betalt,
11:56
transportation, breakfast,
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transport, morgenmad
11:58
but doesn't include coffee in the morning.
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men uden kaffe om morgenen,
12:01
If you want coffee you have to pay for it yourself. It's two euros 50.
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hvis du vil have kaffe skal du selv betale 2.5 Euro.
12:04
Now in some ways,
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På en måde nu,
12:07
given that you can have Rome with coffee,
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hvor det er givet at du kan få Rom med kaffe,
12:09
why would you possibly want Rome without coffee?
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hvorfor skulle du så ville have Rom uden kaffe?
12:12
It's like having your car stolen. It's an inferior option.
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det er ligesom at få din bil stjålet, en dårligere valgmulighed.
12:15
But guess what happened. The moment you add Rome without coffee,
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Gæt hvad der sker, i det øjeblik Rom uden kaffe bliver en mulighed
12:17
Rome with coffee becomes more popular. And people choose it.
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bliver Rom med kaffe mere populært, og folk vælger det.
12:22
The fact that you have Rome without coffee
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det faktum at du har Rom uden kaffe
12:25
makes Rome with coffee look superior,
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gør at Rom med kaffe virker overlegent,
12:27
and not just to Rome without coffee -- even superior to Paris.
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og ikke bare til Rom uden kaffe, men også til Paris.
12:30
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
12:34
Here are two examples of this principle.
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Her er to eksempler på det her princip,
12:36
This was an ad from The Economist a few years ago
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Det her var en reklame i The Economist for nogle år siden,
12:39
that gave us three choices.
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den gav os tre valg,
12:41
An online subscription for 59 dollars.
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et internet abonnement for 59 dollar,
12:44
A print subscription for 125.
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et papir abonnement for 125,
12:48
Or you could get both for 125.
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eller begge dele for 125.
12:50
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
12:52
Now I looked at this and I called up The Economist.
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Jeg så det her, og ringede til The Economist.
12:54
And I tried to figure out what were they thinking.
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Jeg forsøgte at regne ud hvad de tænkte på,
12:57
And they passed me from one person to another to another,
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og de henviste mig fra en person til en anden til en tredje,
13:00
until eventually I got to a person who was in charge of the website.
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indtil jeg til sidst kom til ham der stod for hjemmesiden,
13:04
And I called them up. And they went to check what was going on.
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og jeg ringede til dem, og de tjekkede hvad meningen var.
13:07
The next thing I know, the ad is gone. And no explanation.
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og pludseligt var reklamen væk, uden forklaring.
13:11
So I decided to do the experiment
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Så jeg besluttede mig for at udføre eksperimentet,
13:13
that I would have loved The Economist to do with me.
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som jeg ville have elsket at The Economist havde været med i,
13:16
I took this and I gave it to 100 MIT students.
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jeg tog annoncen og gav den til 100 studerende,
13:18
I said, "What would you choose?"
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og spurgte dem "Hvad ville du vælge?"
13:20
These are the market share. Most people wanted the combo deal.
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Det her er er et diagram over beslutningerne,
13:24
Thankfully nobody wanted the dominated option.
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de fleste valgte at få begge, ingen valgte kun papir,
13:26
That means our students can read.
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hvilket betyder at vores studerende kan læse.
13:28
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
13:29
But now if you have an option that nobody wants,
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Men hvis du har en mulighed som ingen vil have,
13:32
you can take it off. Right?
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så kan du bare fjerne den, ikke?
13:34
So I printed another version of this,
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Så jeg lavede en ny version af den her,
13:36
where I eliminated the middle option.
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hvor jeg fjernede papir-muligheden,
13:38
I gave it to another 100 students. Here is what happens.
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og gav den nye reklame til 100 studerende, her er hvad der skete,
13:41
Now the most popular option became the least popular.
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nu bliver den mest populære den mindst populære,
13:44
And the least popular became the most popular.
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og den mindst populære blev den mest populære,
13:47
What was happening was the option that was useless,
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det der skete var at den ubrugelige mulighed,
13:51
in the middle, was useless in the sense that nobody wanted it.
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i midten, var ubrugelig ved at ingen havde lyst til den,
13:55
But it wasn't useless in the sense that it helped people figure out
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men den var ikke ubrugelig ved at hjælp folk
13:57
what they wanted.
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med at finde ud af hvad de ville have,
13:59
In fact, relative to the option in the middle,
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faktisk, i forhold til den midterste mulighed,
14:02
which was get only the print for 125,
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som var kun at få papir-versionen for 125,
14:06
the print and web for 125 looked like a fantastic deal.
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virkede kombinationen og papir- og netversionen for 125 fantastisk,
14:10
And as a consequence, people chose it.
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og derfor valgte folk den.
14:12
The general idea here, by the way,
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Den generelle ide er, for resten,
14:14
is that we actually don't know our preferences that well.
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at vi ikke kender vores præferencer særligt godt,
14:16
And because we don't know our preferences that well
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og fordi vi ikke kender dem særligt godt,
14:18
we're susceptible to all of these influences from the external forces:
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er vi tilbøjelige til at blive påvirket udefra:
14:22
the defaults, the particular options that are presented to us, and so on.
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Standarden, den specifikke løsning vi bliver vist, osv.
14:26
One more example of this.
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Et mere eksempel.
14:28
People believe that when we deal with physical attraction,
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Folk tror at når det handler om fysisk tiltrækning,
14:31
we see somebody, and we know immediately whether we like them or not,
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ser vi nogen og ved med det samme om vi kan lide dem eller ej,
14:34
attracted or not.
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om vi er tiltrukket eller ej.
14:36
Which is why we have these four-minute dates.
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Hvilket er grunden til at vi har de her 4-minutters dates.
14:38
So I decided to do this experiment with people.
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Så jeg besluttede mig for at lave et eksperiment,
14:41
I'll show you graphic images of people -- not real people.
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jeg vil vise nogle tegninger af folk, ikke rigtige folk.
14:43
The experiment was with people.
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eksperimentet gik ud på
14:45
I showed some people a picture of Tom, and a picture of Jerry.
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at jeg viste folk et billede af Tom, og et af Jerry,
14:48
I said "Who do you want to date? Tom or Jerry?"
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og spurgte "Hvem vil du date? Tom eller Jerry?"
14:51
But for half the people I added an ugly version of Jerry.
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Men for halvdelen af personerne tilføjede jeg en grim version af Jerry.
14:55
I took Photoshop and I made Jerry slightly less attractive.
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Jeg brugte Photoshop og gjorde Jerry lidt grimmere.
15:00
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
15:01
The other people, I added an ugly version of Tom.
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Hos den anden halvdel, tilføjede jeg en grimmere version af Tom.
15:05
And the question was, will ugly Jerry and ugly Tom
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og spørgsmålet var, vil grimme Jerry og grimme Tom
15:08
help their respective, more attractive brothers?
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hjælpe deres kønnere brødre?
15:12
The answer was absolutely yes.
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og svaret var absolut ja.
15:14
When ugly Jerry was around, Jerry was popular.
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Når grimme Jerry var der, var Jerry populær,
15:16
When ugly Tom was around, Tom was popular.
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når grimme Tom var der, var Tom populær.
15:18
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
15:20
This of course has two very clear implications
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Det her har to klare konsekvenser
15:22
for life in general.
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for livet generelt.
15:26
If you ever go bar hopping, who do you want to take with you?
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Hvis du tager i byen, hvem vil du så have med dig?
15:29
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
15:35
You want a slightly uglier version of yourself.
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Du vil have en lidt grimmere version af dig selv.
15:38
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
15:40
Similar. Similar ... but slightly uglier.
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Ens, men en lille smule grimmere.
15:42
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
15:44
The second point, or course, is that
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Den anden konsekvens er selvfølgeligt
15:46
if somebody else invites you, you know how they think about you.
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at hvis nogen inviterer dig med i byen, ved du hvad de synes om dig
15:49
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
15:52
Now you're getting it.
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Nu forstår i det.
15:54
What is the general point?
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Hvad er hovedpointen?
15:56
The general point is that when we think about economics we have
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Hovedpointen er at når vi tænker på vores økonomiske system,
15:58
this beautiful view of human nature.
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det smukke billede af menneskelig natur.
16:01
"What a piece of work is man! How noble in reason!"
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"Hvilket et pragtstykke er mennesket, så fornuftigt!"
16:03
We have this view of ourselves, of others.
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Har vi det her billede af os selv, og af andre,
16:06
The behavioral economics perspective
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det adfærdsøkonomiske perspektiv,
16:08
is slightly less generous to people.
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er en smule mindre rosenrødt,
16:11
In fact in medical terms, that's our view.
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faktisk, i medicinske termer, er det her vores synspunkt.
16:14
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
16:20
But there is a silver lining.
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Men der er en god side,
16:22
The silver lining is, I think,
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den gode side er, synes jeg,
16:24
kind of the reason that behavioral economics is interesting and exciting.
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en af grundene til at adfærdsøkonomi er spændende,
16:28
Are we Superman? Or are we Homer Simpson?
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er vi Superman? eller er vi Homer Simpson?
16:30
When it comes to building the physical world,
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Når det handler om at lave vores fysiske verden,
16:34
we kind of understand our limitations.
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forstår vi næsten vores grænser.
16:36
We build steps. And we build these things
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Vi bygger trapper, vi bygger alle de her ting,
16:38
that not everybody can use obviously.
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som ikke alle kan bruge.
16:41
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
16:42
We understand our limitations,
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Vi forstår vores grænser,
16:44
and we build around it.
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og vi bygger omkring dem.
16:46
But for some reason when it comes to the mental world,
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Men af en eller anden grund, når det kommer til det mentale,
16:48
when we design things like healthcare and retirement and stockmarkets,
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når vi designer sygehusvæsenet, pensioner og aktiemarkeder,
16:52
we somehow forget the idea that we are limited.
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glemmer vi at vi er begrænsede,
16:54
I think that if we understood our cognitive limitations
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jeg tror, at hvis vi forstod vores mentale begrænsninger,
16:57
in the same way that we understand our physical limitations,
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på samme måde som vi forstår vores fysiske,
16:59
even though they don't stare us in the face in the same way,
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selvom de ikke er tydelige på samme måde,
17:01
we could design a better world.
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kunne vi lave en bedre verden.
17:04
And that, I think, is the hope of this thing.
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og det, tror jeg, er mit håb med det her.
17:06
Thank you very much.
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Mange tak.
17:08
(Applause)
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(Bifald)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economistThe dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why.
Why you should listen
Dan Ariely is a professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke University and a founding member of the Center for Advanced Hindsight. He is the author of the bestsellers Predictably Irrational, The Upside of Irrationality, and The Honest Truth About Dishonesty -- as well as the TED Book Payoff: The Hidden Logic that Shapes Our Motivations.
Through his research and his (often amusing and unorthodox) experiments, he questions the forces that influence human behavior and the irrational ways in which we often all behave.
Dan Ariely | Speaker | TED.com