EG 2008
Dan Ariely: Are we in control of our own decisions?
Dan Ariely pita: Kontroliramo li svoje odluke?
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Bihevioralni ekonomist Dan Ariely, autor knjige "Predvidljivo iracionalni", koristi klasične optičke iluzije, kao i (katkada šokantne) rezultate svojih istraživanja koji prkose zdravom razumu, kako bi pokazao da nismo tako racionalni kako mislimo kada donosimo odluke.
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economist
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why. Full bio
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I'll tell you a little bit about irrational behavior.
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Ispričat ću vam nešto o iracionalnom ponašanju.
00:19
Not yours, of course -- other people's.
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Naravno, ne vašem. Drugih ljudi.
00:21
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
00:22
So after being at MIT for a few years,
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Nakon nekoliko godina boravka na MIT-u,
00:26
I realized that writing academic papers is not that exciting.
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shvatio sam da pisanje akademskih članaka i nije baš tako uzbudljivo.
00:30
You know, I don't know how many of those you read,
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Ne znam koliko ste ih pročitali,
00:32
but it's not fun to read and often not fun to write --
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ali nije ih zabavno čitati, a vrlo često ni pisati.
00:35
even worse to write.
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Pisati je još gore.
00:37
So I decided to try and write something more fun.
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Tako sam odlučio pokušati napisati nešto zabavnije.
00:40
And I came up with an idea that I will write a cookbook.
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Palo mi je na pamet napisati kuharicu
00:44
And the title for my cookbook was going to be
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čiji je naslov trebao biti
00:46
"Dining Without Crumbs: The Art of Eating Over the Sink."
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"Jesti bez mrvica: Umijeće jedenja iznad sudopera"
00:49
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
00:51
And it was going to be a look at life through the kitchen.
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To je trebao biti pogled na život kroz kuhinju
00:54
And I was quite excited about this. I was going to talk
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i zaista sam bio uzbuđen u vezi toga. Namjeravao sam malo
00:56
a little bit about research, a little bit about the kitchen.
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govoriti o istraživanju, a malo o kuhinji.
00:59
You know, we do so much in the kitchen I thought this would be interesting.
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Znate, toliko toga radimo u kuhinji, pa sam mislio da bi to moglo biti zanimljivo.
01:02
And I wrote a couple of chapters.
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Napisao sam nekoliko poglavlja
01:04
And I took it to MIT press and they said,
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i odnio ih u MIT Press gdje su rekli:
01:06
"Cute, but not for us. Go and find somebody else."
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"Zgodno, ali nije za nas. Potražite nekog drugog."
01:10
I tried other people and everybody said the same thing,
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Pokušao sam drugdje i svi su mi rekli isto:
01:12
"Cute. Not for us."
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"Zgodno, ali ne za nas."
01:15
Until somebody said,
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Sve dok netko nije rekao:
01:18
"Look, if you're serious about this,
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"Gledajte, ako ste ozbiljni u vezi ovoga,
01:20
you first have to write a book about your research. You have to publish something,
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najprije morate napisati knjigu o svom istraživanju. Morate nešto objaviti,
01:23
and then you'll get the opportunity to write something else.
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a onda ćete dobiti priliku pisati nešto drugo.
01:25
If you really want to do it you have to do it."
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Ako to zbilja želite, morat ćete tako učiniti."
01:27
So I said, "You know, I really don't want to write about my research.
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Pa sam rekao: "Znate, ja ne želim pisati o svom istraživanju.
01:30
I do this all day long. I want to write something else.
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To radim po cijele dane. Želim pisati nešto drugo.
01:32
Something a bit more free, less constrained."
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Nešto malo slobodnije, manje ograničeno.
01:35
And this person was very forceful and said,
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No, ta je osoba bila prilično ustrajna i rekla:
01:38
"Look. That's the only way you'll ever do it."
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"Gledajte, to je jedini način na koji možete uspjeti."
01:40
So I said, "Okay, if I have to do it -- "
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Rekao sam: "OK, ako baš moram..."
01:43
I had a sabbatical. I said, "I'll write about my research
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Uzeo sam slobodnu godinu i rekao "Pisat ću o svom istraživanju
01:46
if there is no other way. And then I'll get to do my cookbook."
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ako nema drugog načina. A onda ću napisati kuharicu."
01:48
So I wrote a book on my research.
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I tako sam napisao knjigu o svom istraživanju.
01:51
And it turned out to be quite fun in two ways.
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Ispalo je prilično zabavno, na dva načina.
01:54
First of all, I enjoyed writing.
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Prije svega, uživao sam pišući.
01:57
But the more interesting thing was that
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No, zanimljivija stvar je bila ta
01:59
I started learning from people.
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da sam počeo učiti od drugih ljudi.
02:01
It's a fantastic time to write,
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Ovo je sjajno vrijeme za pisanje
02:03
because there is so much feedback you can get from people.
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jer vam ljudi mogu dati puno povratnih informacija.
02:05
People write me about their personal experience,
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Ljudi mi pišu o svom osobnom iskustvu
02:08
and about their examples, and what they disagree,
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o vlastitim primjerima, s čime se ne slažu
02:10
and nuances.
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i slično.
02:12
And even being here -- I mean the last few days,
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Čak i dok sam ovdje, jer mi se čini da sam u zadnjih par dana
02:14
I've known really heights of obsessive behavior
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spoznao stvarne mogućnosti opsesivnog ponašanja
02:17
I never thought about.
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na kakve nisam ni pomišljao.
02:19
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
02:20
Which I think is just fascinating.
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Mislim da je to očaravajuće.
02:22
I will tell you a little bit about irrational behavior.
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Reći ću vam nešto o iracionalnom ponašanju
02:25
And I want to start by giving you some examples of visual illusion
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i započet ću primjerima nekih optičkih iluzija
02:28
as a metaphor for rationality.
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kao metaforama za racionalnost.
02:30
So think about these two tables.
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Razmislite o ova dva stola.
02:32
And you must have seen this illusion.
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Sigurno ste već vidjeli ovu iluziju.
02:34
If I asked you what's longer, the vertical line on the table on the left,
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Kada bih vas pitao što je dulje: okomita linija stola na lijevoj strani
02:37
or the horizontal line on the table on the right?
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ili vodoravna linija stola na desnoj strani?
02:40
Which one seems longer?
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Koja se čini duljom?
02:43
Can anybody see anything but the left one being longer?
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Vidi li itko drukčije nego da je lijeva dulja?
02:46
No, right? It's impossible.
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Ne, zar ne? To je nemoguće.
02:48
But the nice thing about visual illusion is we can easily demonstrate mistakes.
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No, dobra stvar u vezi optičkih iluzija je da lako možemo pokazati greške
02:51
So I can put some lines on; it doesn't help.
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pa tako mogu dodati crte, ali ne pomažu.
02:54
I can animate the lines.
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Mogu animirati crte
02:56
And to the extent you believe I didn't shrink the lines,
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sve do te mjere da mislite da ih nisam smanjio,
02:58
which I didn't, I've proven to you that your eyes were deceiving you.
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što ni nisam, ali sam dokazao da vas vaše oči varaju.
03:03
Now, the interesting thing about this
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Zanimljivo je to da
03:05
is when I take the lines away,
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kada maknem ove crte
03:07
it's as if you haven't learned anything in the last minute.
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ispada kao da ništa niste naučili u protekloj minuti.
03:09
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
03:12
You can't look at this and say, "Okay now I see reality as it is."
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Ne možete pogledati ovo i reći "OK, sada vidim stvarnost takvu kakva je."
03:15
Right? It's impossible to overcome this
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Točno? Nemoguće je nadvladati osjećaj
03:17
sense that this is indeed longer.
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da je ovo zbilja dulje.
03:20
Our intuition is really fooling us in a repeatable, predictable, consistent way.
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Naša nas intuicija svaki put iznova prevari na ponavljajući, predvidljiv i dosljedan način.
03:23
And there is almost nothing we can do about it,
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Ne možemo učiniti ništa u vezi s tim
03:26
aside from taking a ruler and starting to measure it.
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osim uzeti ravnalo i početi mjeriti.
03:29
Here is another one -- this is one of my favorite illusions.
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Evo još jedne. Ovo je jedna od mojih omiljenih iluzija.
03:32
What do you see the color that top arrow is pointing to?
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Na koju boju pokazuje gornja strelica?
03:35
Brown. Thank you.
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Smeđu. Hvala vam.
03:37
The bottom one? Yellow.
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A donja? Na žutu.
03:39
Turns out they're identical.
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Ispada da su identične.
03:41
Can anybody see them as identical?
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Vidi li itko da su identične?
03:43
Very very hard.
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Vrlo, vrlo teško.
03:45
I can cover the rest of the cube up.
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Mogu pokriti ostatak kocke
03:47
And if I cover the rest of the cube you can see that they are identical.
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i ako to učinim, vidite da su identične.
03:50
And if you don't believe me you can get the slide later
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Ako mi ne vjerujete, možete poslije dobiti slide
03:52
and do some arts and crafts and see that they're identical.
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i malo čarobirati pa vidjeti da su zbilja identične.
03:55
But again it's the same story
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No, to je opet ista priča.
03:57
that if we take the background away,
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Ako maknemo podlogu,
03:59
the illusion comes back. Right.
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iluzija se vraća, zar ne?
04:01
There is no way for us not to see this illusion.
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Ne možemo ne vidjeti ovu iluziju.
04:04
I guess maybe if you're colorblind I don't think you can see that.
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Možda ju ne vidite jedino ako ste daltonist.
04:07
I want you to think about illusion as a metaphor.
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Želio bih da iluziju shvatite kao metaforu.
04:10
Vision is one of the best things we do.
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Vid je jedna od najboljih stvari koju imamo.
04:12
We have a huge part of our brain dedicated to vision --
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Ogroman dio mozga posvećen je vidu,
04:14
bigger than dedicated to anything else.
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više nego ičemu drugome.
04:16
We do more vision more hours of the day than we do anything else.
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Bavimo se gledanjem više sati dnevno nego ijednom drugom aktivnošću
04:20
And we are evolutionarily designed to do vision.
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i evolucijski smo osmišljeni da bismo gledali.
04:22
And if we have these predictable repeatable mistakes in vision,
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Ako u vidu, u kojem smo tako dobri, stalno ponavljamo
04:25
which we're so good at,
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jedne te iste predvidljive pogreške,
04:27
what's the chance that we don't make even more mistakes
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kolike su šanse da ne radimo još veće pogreške
04:29
in something we're not as good at --
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u nečemu u čemu nismo toliko dobri,
04:31
for example, financial decision making:
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naprimjer, u financijskom odlučivanju
04:33
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
04:35
something we don't have an evolutionary reason to do,
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za koje nemamo evolucijske predispozicije,
04:37
we don't have a specialized part of the brain,
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nemamo specijalizirani dio mozga
04:39
and we don't do that many hours of the day.
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i ne radimo to veći dio dana.
04:41
And the argument is in those cases
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U tim slučajevima, argument može biti
04:44
it might be the issue that we actually make many more mistakes
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da upravo zato radimo puno više pogrešaka.
04:48
and, worse, not have an easy way to see them.
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Što je još gore, ne možemo ih samo tako prepoznati
04:51
Because in visual illusions we can easily demonstrate the mistakes;
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jer kod optičkih iluzija možemo lako pokazati greške
04:54
in cognitive illusion it's much, much harder
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dok je kod kognitivnih iluzija puno, puno teže
04:56
to demonstrate to people the mistakes.
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ljudima pokazati pogreške.
04:58
So I want to show you some cognitive illusions,
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Želim vam pokazati neke kognitivne iluzije
05:01
or decision-making illusions, in the same way.
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odnosno iluzije donošenja odluka.
05:04
And this is one of my favorite plots in social sciences.
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Ovo je jedna od mojih omiljenih tema u društvenim znanostima,
05:07
It's from a paper by Johnson and Goldstein.
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a dio je članka Johnsona i Goldsteina.
05:11
And it basically shows
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Ta iluzija zapravo pokazuje
05:13
the percentage of people who indicated
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postotak ljudi koji su izrazili želju
05:15
they would be interested in giving their organs to donation.
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za doniranjem organa
05:19
And these are different countries in Europe. And you basically
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u različitim europskim državama.
05:21
see two types of countries:
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Zapravo vidite dvije vrste država:
05:23
countries on the right, that seem to be giving a lot;
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Države s desne strane, koje naizgled puno doniraju
05:25
and countries on the left that seem to giving very little,
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i države s lijeve strane koje doniraju vrlo malo
05:28
or much less.
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ili puno manje od prvih.
05:30
The question is, why? Why do some countries give a lot
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Pitanje je zašto? Zašto neke zemlje doniraju u velikoj mjeri,
05:32
and some countries give a little?
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a neke vrlo malo?
05:34
When you ask people this question,
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Kada postavite ovo pitanje,
05:36
they usually think that it has to be something about culture.
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ljudi obično misle da je to vezano uz kulturu.
05:38
Right? How much do you care about people?
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Zar ne? Koliko vam je stalo do ljudi?
05:40
Giving your organs to somebody else
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Doniranje organa je vjerojatno pitanje
05:42
is probably about how much you care about society, how linked you are.
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brige o društvu i povezanosti.
05:45
Or maybe it is about religion.
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A možda je i pitanje vjere.
05:47
But, if you look at this plot,
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Ako pogledate ovaj graf,
05:49
you can see that countries that we think about as very similar
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možete vidjeti da se države koje smatramo sličnima
05:52
actually exhibit very different behavior.
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zapravo vrlo različito ponašaju.
05:55
For example, Sweden is all the way on the right,
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Naprimjer, Švedska je sasvim desno,
05:57
and Denmark, that we think is culturally very similar,
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a Danska, koju smatramo kulturološki vrlo sličnom,
06:00
is all the way on the left.
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je sasvim lijevo.
06:02
Germany is on the left. And Austria is on the right.
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Njemačka je lijevo, a Austrija desno;
06:06
The Netherlands is on the left. And Belgium is on the right.
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Nizozemska je lijevo, a Belgija desno;
06:09
And finally, depending on your particular version
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i konačno, ovisno o vašoj osobnoj verziji
06:12
of European similarity,
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europske sličnosti možete Veliku Britaniju i Francusku
06:14
you can think about the U.K and France as either similar culturally or not.
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smatrati kulturološki sličnom ili ne, ali ispada
06:19
But it turns out that from organ donation they are very different.
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da su u doniranju organa vrlo različite.
06:23
By the way, the Netherlands is an interesting story.
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Vrlo je zanimljiva priča u vezi Nizozemske.
06:25
You see the Netherlands is kind of the biggest of the small group.
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Ona je najveća unutar male grupe,
06:30
Turns out that they got to 28 percent
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ispada da su dobili 28%
06:33
after mailing every household in the country a letter
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nakon što su svakom kućanstvu u državi poslali pismo
06:36
begging people to join this organ donation program.
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s molbom za učlanjenje u program doniranja organa.
06:39
You know the expression, "Begging only gets you so far"?
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No, moliti ne znači i dobiti.
06:42
It's 28 percent in organ donation.
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Dakle, 28% bi doniralo organe.
06:45
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
06:47
But whatever the countries on the right are doing
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Što god radile države s desne strane,
06:49
they are doing a much better job than begging.
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sigurno je bolje nego samo moliti.
06:51
So what are they doing?
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Što one rade?
06:53
Turns out the secret has to do with a form at the DMV.
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Ispostavilo se da je tajna u obrascu za popunjavanje.
06:56
And here is the story.
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Priča ide ovako:
06:58
The countries on the left have a form at the DMV
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Države s lijeva imaju obrazac
07:00
that looks something like this.
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koji izgleda otprilike ovako.
07:02
Check the box below if you want to participate
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Označite kućicu ako želite sudjelovati
07:04
in the organ donor program.
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u programu doniranja organa.
07:06
And what happens?
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Što se događa?
07:08
People don't check, and they don't join.
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Ljudi ju ne označe i ne sudjeluju.
07:11
The countries on the right, the ones that give a lot,
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Države s desna, one koje puno doniraju,
07:13
have a slightly different form.
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imaju malo drukčiji obrazac.
07:15
It says check the box below if you don't want to participate.
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U njemu piše: označite kućicu ako ne želite sudjelovati.
07:18
Interestingly enough, when people get this,
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Zanimljivo je da, kada ljudi dobiju takav obrazac,
07:20
they again don't check -- but now they join.
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opet ne označe kućicu - ali sada sudjeluju.
07:23
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
07:26
Now think about what this means.
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Razmislite što to znači.
07:29
We wake up in the morning and we feel we make decisions.
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Ujutro se probudimo i osjećamo da donosimo odluke.
07:33
We wake up in the morning and we open the closet
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Probudimo se, otvorimo ormar
07:35
and we feel that we decide what to wear.
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i osjećamo da sami odlučujemo što ćemo obući.
07:37
And we open the refrigerator and we feel that we decide what to eat.
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Onda otvorimo frižider i osjećamo da sami odlučujemo što ćemo jesti.
07:40
What this is actually saying is that
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Sve to zapravo znači da
07:42
much of these decisions are not residing within us.
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velik dio ovih odluka ne dolazi iz nas samih,
07:44
They are residing in the person who is designing that form.
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već od osobe koja je osmislila taj obrazac.
07:47
When you walk into the DMV,
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Kada uđete u DMV,
07:50
the person who designed the form will have a huge influence
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osoba koja je osmislila obrazac imat će ogroman utjecaj
07:52
on what you'll end up doing.
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na vaše ponašanje.
07:54
Now it's also very hard to intuit these results. Think about it for yourself.
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Vrlo je teško predvidjeti te rezultate. Razmislite samo
07:58
How many of you believe
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koliko vas vjeruje da,
08:00
that if you went to renew your license tomorrow,
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ako biste sutra krenuli produžiti vozačku dozvolu,
08:02
and you went to the DMV,
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otišli u DMV
08:04
and you would encounter one of these forms,
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i susreli se s jednim od tih obrazaca,
08:06
that it would actually change your own behavior?
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da bi oni zapravo promijenili vaše ponašanje?
08:09
Very, very hard to think that you will influence us.
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Vrlo je teško zamisliti da bi to imalo ikakav utjecaj na nas.
08:11
We can say, "Oh, these funny Europeans, of course it would influence them."
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Možemo reći: "Oh, ti smiješni Europljani. Naravno da bi utjecali na njih."
08:13
But when it comes to us,
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No, kada smo mi u pitanju,
08:16
we have such a feeling that we are at the driver's seat,
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imamo osjećaj da smo na mjestu vozača,
08:18
we have such a feeling that we are in control,
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i da držimo sve pod kontrolom
08:20
and we are making the decision,
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i da mi donosimo odluku.
08:22
that it's very hard to even accept
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Vrlo je teško prihvatiti ideju
08:24
the idea that we actually have
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da zapravo imamo iluziju
08:26
an illusion of making a decision, rather than an actual decision.
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donošenja odluke, umjesto samog odlučivanja.
08:30
Now, you might say,
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Sada biste mogli reći:
08:32
"These are decisions we don't care about."
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"To su odluke za koje nas nije briga."
08:35
In fact, by definition, these are decisions
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Zapravo su to po definiciji odluke
08:37
about something that will happen to us after we die.
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o nečemu što će nam se dogoditi nakon što umremo.
08:39
How could we care about something less
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Zašto bi nas bilo briga za nešto
08:42
than something that happens after we die?
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što će se dogoditi nakon što umremo?
08:44
So a standard economist, someone who believes in rationality,
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Prosječni bi ekonomist, netko tko vjeruje u racionalnost,
08:47
would say, "You know what? The cost of lifting the pencil
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rekao: "Znate što? Trošak uzimanja olovke i stavljanja kvačice
08:50
and marking a V is higher than the possible
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veći je od moguće koristi
08:52
benefit of the decision,
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od ove odluke."
08:54
so that's why we get this effect."
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Tako nastaje ovaj efekt.
08:56
But, in fact, it's not because it's easy.
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Zapravo, nije samo jednostavnost u pitanju,
08:59
It's not because it's trivial. It's not because we don't care.
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nije tako trivijalno, nije da nam nije stalo.
09:02
It's the opposite. It's because we care.
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Upravo je suprotno - zato što nam je stalo.
09:05
It's difficult and it's complex.
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Teško je i složeno,
09:07
And it's so complex that we don't know what to do.
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toliko složeno da ne znamo što učiniti.
09:09
And because we have no idea what to do
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I zato što nemamo pojma što bismo,
09:11
we just pick whatever it was that was chosen for us.
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jednostavno odabiremo ono što je već unaprijed određeno.
09:15
I'll give you one more example for this.
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Dat ću vam još jedan primjer,
09:17
This is from a paper by Redelmeier and Schaefer.
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ovoga puta iz članka Redelmeiera i Schaefera.
09:20
And they said, "Well, this effect also happens to experts,
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Oni kažu: "Ovaj efekt često viđamo i kod stručnjaka,
09:23
people who are well-paid, experts in their decisions,
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ljudi koji su dobro plaćeni, stručnjaka u svojim odlukama,
09:26
do it a lot."
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svima se to često događa."
09:28
And they basically took a group of physicians.
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Uzeli su grupu liječnika
09:30
And they presented to them a case study of a patient.
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i predstavili im slučaj jednoga pacijenta.
09:32
Here is a patient. He is a 67-year-old farmer.
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Ovo je pacijent, 67-godišnji poljoprivrednik
09:36
He's been suffering from a right hip pain for a while.
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kojega već neko vrijeme muči bol u desnom kuku.
09:38
And then they said to the physician,
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Tada su rekli liječnicima:
09:40
"You decided a few weeks ago
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"Prije nekoliko tjedana odlučili ste
09:42
that nothing is working for this patient.
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da ovom pacijentu ništa ne pomaže.
09:44
All these medications, nothing seems to be working.
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Svi ti silni lijekovi, ništa ne funkcionira.
09:46
So you refer the patient to hip replacement therapy.
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Predložili ste mu operaciju ugradnje umjetnog kuka.
09:49
Hip replacement. Okay?"
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Dakle, umjetni kuk. OK?
09:51
So the patient is on a path to have his hip replaced.
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Pacijent je u procesu pripreme za operaciju.
09:54
And then they said to half the physicians, they said,
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Tada su polovini liječnika rekli:
09:56
"Yesterday you reviewed the patient's case
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Jučer ste ponovno pregledali slučaj ovog pacijenta
09:58
and you realized that you forgot to try one medication.
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i shvatili da ste zaboravili isprobati jedan lijek,
10:01
You did not try ibuprofen.
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ibuprofen.
10:04
What do you do? Do you pull the patient back and try ibuprofen?
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Što ćete učiniti? Povući pacijenta i pokušati s ibuprofenom
10:07
Or do you let them go and have hip replacement?"
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ili ga pustiti da ode na ugradnju umjetnog kuka?"
10:10
Well the good news is that most physicians in this case
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Dobra vijest je da je većina liječnika u ovom slučaju
10:12
decided to pull the patient and try the ibuprofen.
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odlučila povući pacijenta i pokušati s ibuprofenom.
10:15
Very good for the physicians.
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Vrlo dobro, liječnici.
10:17
The other group of the physicians, they said,
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Drugoj grupi liječnika su rekli:
10:19
"Yesterday when you reviewed the case
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"Jučer kada ste ponovno pregledali slučaj,
10:21
you discovered there were two medications you didn't try out yet,
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otkrili ste da niste još isprobali dva lijeka,
10:23
ibuprofen and piroxicam."
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ibuprofen i piroksikam."
10:26
And they said, "You have two medications you didn't try out yet. What do you do?
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Pa su rekli:"Imate dva lijeka koja još niste isprobali. Što ćete učiniti?
10:29
You let them go. Or you pull them back.
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Puštate ih na operaciju ili povlačite.
10:31
And if you pull them back do you try ibuprofen or piroxicam? Which one?"
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Ako ih povučete, hoćete li probati s ibuprofenom ili piroksikamom? S kojim?
10:34
Now think of it. This decision
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Razmislite sada o ovoj odluci.
10:36
makes it as easy to let the patient continue with hip replacement.
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Ona vrlo lako omogućava pacijentu nastavak ugradnje umjetnog kuka.
10:39
But pulling them back, all of the sudden becomes more complex.
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No, ako ih vratimo natrag, odjednom sve postaje puno složenije.
10:42
There is one more decision.
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To je još jedna odluka.
10:44
What happens now?
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Što se sada događa?
10:46
Majority of the physicians now choose to let the patient go
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Sada većina liječnika odlučuje pacijenta pustiti
10:49
to hip replacement.
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na ugradnju umjetnog kuka.
10:51
I hope this worries you, by the way --
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Usput, nadam se da vas ovo brine...
10:53
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
10:54
when you go to see your physician.
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kada odlazite svome liječniku.
10:56
The thing is is that no physician would ever say,
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Stvar je u tome da nijedan liječnik ne bi rekao:
10:59
"Piroxicam, ibuprofen, hip replacement.
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"Piroksikam, ibuprofen, ugradnja umjetnog kuka -
11:01
Let's go for hip replacement."
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biram umjetni kuk."
11:03
But the moment you set this as the default
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No, u trenutku kada je to već unaprijed određeno,
11:06
it has a huge power over whatever people end up doing.
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ima veliku moć nad ljudskim ponašanjem.
11:10
I'll give you a couple of more examples on irrational decision-making.
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Dat ću vam još nekoliko primjera iracionalnog odlučivanja.
11:13
Imagine I give you a choice.
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Zamislite da imate sljedeći izbor:
11:15
Do you want to go for a weekend to Rome?
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Želite li ići u Rim za vikend?
11:17
All expenses paid:
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Svi troškovi su plaćeni,
11:19
hotel, transportation, food, breakfast,
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hotel, prijevoz, hrana, doručak,
11:21
a continental breakfast, everything.
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kontinentalni doručak - sve.
11:23
Or a weekend in Paris?
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Ili vikend u Parizu?
11:25
Now, a weekend in Paris, a weekend in Rome, these are different things;
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Vikend u Parizu i vikend u Rimu su dvije sasvim različite stvari;
11:28
they have different food, different culture, different art.
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drukčija je hrana, kultura, umjetnost.
11:30
Now imagine I added a choice to the set
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Zamislite sada da sam u ponudu dodao još jednu mogućnost
11:32
that nobody wanted.
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koju nitko nije želio.
11:34
Imagine I said, "A weekend in Rome,
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Zamislite da sam rekao: "Vikend u Rimu,
11:36
a weekend in Paris, or having your car stolen?"
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vikend u Parizu ili da vam ukradu auto?"
11:39
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
11:42
It's a funny idea, because why would having your car stolen,
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To je smiješna ideja. Zašto bi krađa automobila u ovoj kombinaciji
11:45
in this set, influence anything?
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imala ikakav utjecaj?
11:47
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
11:49
But what if the option to have your car stolen
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No, što ako opcija krađe automobila
11:52
was not exactly like this.
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nije baš ovakva.
11:54
What if it was a trip to Rome, all expenses paid,
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Što ako se radi o putovanju u Rim sa plaćenim svim troškovima,
11:56
transportation, breakfast,
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prijevozom i doručkom,
11:58
but doesn't include coffee in the morning.
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ali bez jutarnje kave.
12:01
If you want coffee you have to pay for it yourself. It's two euros 50.
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Ako želite kavu, morat ćete ju sami platiti 2,50 eura.
12:04
Now in some ways,
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Ako to gledamo tako da
12:07
given that you can have Rome with coffee,
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imate opciju Rim+kava,
12:09
why would you possibly want Rome without coffee?
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zašto biste željeli Rim bez kave?
12:12
It's like having your car stolen. It's an inferior option.
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To je kao željeti da vam ukradu auto - to je neravnopravna opcija.
12:15
But guess what happened. The moment you add Rome without coffee,
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Pogodite što se dogodilo. U trenutku kada ste dodali Rim bez kave,
12:17
Rome with coffee becomes more popular. And people choose it.
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Rim s kavom postaje popularniji i ljudi biraju njega.
12:22
The fact that you have Rome without coffee
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Činjenica da postoji i Rim bez kave,
12:25
makes Rome with coffee look superior,
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predstavlja Rim s kavom superiornijim
12:27
and not just to Rome without coffee -- even superior to Paris.
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i to ne samo u usporedbi s Rimom bez kave, već i s Parizom.
12:30
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
12:34
Here are two examples of this principle.
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Evo dva primjera.
12:36
This was an ad from The Economist a few years ago
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Ovo je bio oglas u časopisu The Economist prije nekoliko godina
12:39
that gave us three choices.
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i nudio je tri izbora:
12:41
An online subscription for 59 dollars.
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online pretplatu za 59 dolara
12:44
A print subscription for 125.
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pretplatu na tiskano izdanje za 125 dolara
12:48
Or you could get both for 125.
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ili oboje za 125 dolara.
12:50
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
12:52
Now I looked at this and I called up The Economist.
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Kada sam to vidio, nazvao sam u The Economist
12:54
And I tried to figure out what were they thinking.
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i pokušao dokučiti o čemu to oni razmišljaju.
12:57
And they passed me from one person to another to another,
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"Vozali" su me od čovjeka do čovjeka
13:00
until eventually I got to a person who was in charge of the website.
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sve dok napokon nisam došao do osobe koja je bila zadužena za website.
13:04
And I called them up. And they went to check what was going on.
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Pozvao sam ih i provjerili su o čemu se radilo.
13:07
The next thing I know, the ad is gone. And no explanation.
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Sljedeće što sam čuo je da je oglas nestao bez objašnjenja.
13:11
So I decided to do the experiment
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Odlučio sam napraviti eksperiment
13:13
that I would have loved The Economist to do with me.
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a volio bih da ga i The Economist isproba sa mnom.
13:16
I took this and I gave it to 100 MIT students.
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Uzeo sam oglas i dao ga stotini studenata s MIT-a.
13:18
I said, "What would you choose?"
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Rekao sam: "Što biste odabrali?"
13:20
These are the market share. Most people wanted the combo deal.
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To su tržišni udjeli i većina je ljudi željela kombiniranu ponudu.
13:24
Thankfully nobody wanted the dominated option.
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Srećom, nitko nije htio dominantnu opciju,
13:26
That means our students can read.
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što znači da naši studenti znaju čitati.
13:28
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
13:29
But now if you have an option that nobody wants,
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No, ako imate opciju koju nitko ne želi,
13:32
you can take it off. Right?
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možete ju maknuti, zar ne?
13:34
So I printed another version of this,
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Ispisao sam drugu verziju oglasa
13:36
where I eliminated the middle option.
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u kojoj sam eliminirao srednju opciju.
13:38
I gave it to another 100 students. Here is what happens.
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Dao sam ga drugoj stotini studenata i pogledajte što se dogodilo.
13:41
Now the most popular option became the least popular.
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Sada je najpopularnija opcija postala najmanje popularna,
13:44
And the least popular became the most popular.
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i obrnuto.
13:47
What was happening was the option that was useless,
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Dogodilo se to da je ona opcija koja je bila u sredini
13:51
in the middle, was useless in the sense that nobody wanted it.
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bila beskorisna jer ju nitko nije želio.
13:55
But it wasn't useless in the sense that it helped people figure out
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No, bila je i korisna jer je pomogla ljudima
13:57
what they wanted.
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odlučiti što žele.
13:59
In fact, relative to the option in the middle,
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Zapravo, u odnosu na srednju opciju,
14:02
which was get only the print for 125,
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koja se odnosila isključivo na tiskano izdanje za 125 dolara,
14:06
the print and web for 125 looked like a fantastic deal.
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tiskano i web izdanje zajedno za istu cijenu činilo se kao odlična ponuda.
14:10
And as a consequence, people chose it.
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Naravno, ljudi su to i odabrali.
14:12
The general idea here, by the way,
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Opća ideja je da zapravo
14:14
is that we actually don't know our preferences that well.
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ne znamo tako dobro svoje želje.
14:16
And because we don't know our preferences that well
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Upravo zato smo podložni
14:18
we're susceptible to all of these influences from the external forces:
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svim tim vanjskim utjecajima,
14:22
the defaults, the particular options that are presented to us, and so on.
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unaprijed određenim postavkama, određenim opcijama koje su nam na raspolaganju itd.
14:26
One more example of this.
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Još jedan primjer.
14:28
People believe that when we deal with physical attraction,
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Kada je riječ o fizičkoj privlačnosti, ljudi vjeruju
14:31
we see somebody, and we know immediately whether we like them or not,
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da čim nekoga ugledamo, odmah znamo sviđa li nam se ili ne,
14:34
attracted or not.
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privlači li nas ili ne.
14:36
Which is why we have these four-minute dates.
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Zbog toga postoje tzv. "speed-dates".
14:38
So I decided to do this experiment with people.
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Odlučio sam napraviti eksperiment s ljudima.
14:41
I'll show you graphic images of people -- not real people.
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Pokazat ću vam grafičke prikaze ljudi, ne stvarne ljude,
14:43
The experiment was with people.
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ali eksperiment je bio s ljudima.
14:45
I showed some people a picture of Tom, and a picture of Jerry.
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Pokazao sam im Tomovu i Jerryjevu sliku i rekao:
14:48
I said "Who do you want to date? Tom or Jerry?"
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"S kim želite izići, s Tomom ili Jerryjem?"
14:51
But for half the people I added an ugly version of Jerry.
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Jednoj grupi ljudi sam dodao ružniju verziju Jerryja.
14:55
I took Photoshop and I made Jerry slightly less attractive.
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U Photoshopu sam ga učinio malo manje privlačnim.
15:00
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
15:01
The other people, I added an ugly version of Tom.
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Drugoj grupi sam dodao ružniju verziju Toma.
15:05
And the question was, will ugly Jerry and ugly Tom
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Pitanje je bilo hoće li ružniji Jerry i Tom
15:08
help their respective, more attractive brothers?
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biti od pomoći svojoj privlačnijoj braći.
15:12
The answer was absolutely yes.
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Odgovor je bio - naravno da hoće.
15:14
When ugly Jerry was around, Jerry was popular.
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Kada bih ubacio ružnijeg Jerryja, Jerry je bio popularan.
15:16
When ugly Tom was around, Tom was popular.
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Kada bih dodao ružnijeg Toma, Tom je bio popularan.
15:18
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
15:20
This of course has two very clear implications
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To nam, naravno, govori dvije jasne stvari
15:22
for life in general.
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o životu općenito.
15:26
If you ever go bar hopping, who do you want to take with you?
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Kada idete po kafićima, koga biste željeli povesti?
15:29
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
15:35
You want a slightly uglier version of yourself.
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Želite svoju malo ružniju verziju.
15:38
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
15:40
Similar. Similar ... but slightly uglier.
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Vrlo sličnu, ali malo ružniju.
15:42
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
15:44
The second point, or course, is that
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Druga stvar je ta da,
15:46
if somebody else invites you, you know how they think about you.
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ako netko drugi pozove vas, znate što misli o vama.
15:49
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
15:52
Now you're getting it.
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Sada vam je već jasno.
15:54
What is the general point?
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Koja je poanta?
15:56
The general point is that when we think about economics we have
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Poanta je u tome da, kada razmišljamo o ekonomiji,
15:58
this beautiful view of human nature.
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imamo u vidu ovaj dio ljudske prirode.
16:01
"What a piece of work is man! How noble in reason!"
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"Kakvo je remek-djelo čovjek! Kako plemenit umom!"
16:03
We have this view of ourselves, of others.
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Tako vidimo sebe, a i druge.
16:06
The behavioral economics perspective
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Viđenje bihevioralne ekonomije
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is slightly less generous to people.
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nešto je manje velikodušno prema ljudima.
16:11
In fact in medical terms, that's our view.
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Zapravo, medicinski rečeno, to je naš pogled.
16:14
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
16:20
But there is a silver lining.
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No, postoji tračak nade
16:22
The silver lining is, I think,
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što je i razlog zbog kojeg je
16:24
kind of the reason that behavioral economics is interesting and exciting.
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bihevioralna ekonomija tako zanimljiva i uzbudljiva.
16:28
Are we Superman? Or are we Homer Simpson?
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Jesmo li Superman ili Homer Simpson?
16:30
When it comes to building the physical world,
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Kada je riječ o izgradnji fizičkog svijeta,
16:34
we kind of understand our limitations.
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donekle razumijemo svoja ograničenja.
16:36
We build steps. And we build these things
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Gradimo stepenice, ali i one stvari
16:38
that not everybody can use obviously.
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koje očito ne mogu svi koristiti.
16:41
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
16:42
We understand our limitations,
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Svjesni smo svojih ograničenja
16:44
and we build around it.
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i krećemo se unutar njih.
16:46
But for some reason when it comes to the mental world,
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No, kada je riječ o mentalnom svijetu,
16:48
when we design things like healthcare and retirement and stockmarkets,
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kada kreiramo stvari poput zdravstvenog i mirovinskog osiguranja i burzi,
16:52
we somehow forget the idea that we are limited.
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nekako, iz nekog razloga, zaboravljamo da smo ograničeni.
16:54
I think that if we understood our cognitive limitations
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Kada bismo razumjeli svoja kognitivna ograničenja
16:57
in the same way that we understand our physical limitations,
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na način na koji razumijemo fizička,
16:59
even though they don't stare us in the face in the same way,
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iako se ne susrećemo s njima na isti način,
17:01
we could design a better world.
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mislim da bismo mogli osmisliti bolji svijet.
17:04
And that, I think, is the hope of this thing.
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Tome se nadamo.
17:06
Thank you very much.
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Puno vam hvala.
17:08
(Applause)
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pljesak
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economistThe dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why.
Why you should listen
Dan Ariely is a professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke University and a founding member of the Center for Advanced Hindsight. He is the author of the bestsellers Predictably Irrational, The Upside of Irrationality, and The Honest Truth About Dishonesty -- as well as the TED Book Payoff: The Hidden Logic that Shapes Our Motivations.
Through his research and his (often amusing and unorthodox) experiments, he questions the forces that influence human behavior and the irrational ways in which we often all behave.
Dan Ariely | Speaker | TED.com