EG 2008
Dan Ariely: Are we in control of our own decisions?
Dan Ariely se sprašuje, Imamo nadzor nad svojimi odločitvami?
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Ekonomist Dan Ariely, avtor knjige Predictably Irrational, nam z uporabo klasičnih optičnih prevar in s kontraintuitivnimi (ter včasih šokantnimi) rezultati raziskav prikaže, da pri odločanju nismo tako racionalni, kot si mislimo, da smo.
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economist
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why. Full bio
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I'll tell you a little bit about irrational behavior.
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Povedal vam bom nekaj o neracionalnem obnašanju ljudi.
00:19
Not yours, of course -- other people's.
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Seveda, ne o vašem.
00:21
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
00:22
So after being at MIT for a few years,
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Po nekaj letih dela na MIT
00:26
I realized that writing academic papers is not that exciting.
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sem ugotovil, da pisanje znanstvenih člankov ni ravno vznemirljivo.
00:30
You know, I don't know how many of those you read,
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Saj veste. Ne vem sicer, koliko ste jih prebrali.
00:32
but it's not fun to read and often not fun to write --
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Niso zanimivi, ko jih bereš in pogosto niti ko jih pišeš.
00:35
even worse to write.
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Še slabše jih je pisati.
00:37
So I decided to try and write something more fun.
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Zato sem se odločil napisati nekaj bolj zabavnega.
00:40
And I came up with an idea that I will write a cookbook.
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Prišel sem na idejo o kuharski knjigi.
00:44
And the title for my cookbook was going to be
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Z naslovom
00:46
"Dining Without Crumbs: The Art of Eating Over the Sink."
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"Večerjanje brez drobtin: Umetnost prehranjevanja nad koritom."
00:49
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
00:51
And it was going to be a look at life through the kitchen.
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Šlo naj bi za pogled na življenje iz kuhinjskega zornega kota.
00:54
And I was quite excited about this. I was going to talk
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Bil sem kar navdušen nad tem. Pisal naj bi
00:56
a little bit about research, a little bit about the kitchen.
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malo o raziskavah, malo o kuhinji.
00:59
You know, we do so much in the kitchen I thought this would be interesting.
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Veste, toliko stvari počnemo v kuhinji, da sem mi je zdela ideja zanimiva.
01:02
And I wrote a couple of chapters.
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Napisal sem nekaj poglavij.
01:04
And I took it to MIT press and they said,
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In nesel sem jih na uredništvo MIT, kjer so rekli,
01:06
"Cute, but not for us. Go and find somebody else."
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"Ljubko, vendar ni za nas. Najdi koga drugega."
01:10
I tried other people and everybody said the same thing,
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Poskušal sem še pri ostalih, vendar so vsi odgovorili enako,
01:12
"Cute. Not for us."
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"Ljubko, vendar ni za nas."
01:15
Until somebody said,
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Dokler ni nekdo dejal,
01:18
"Look, if you're serious about this,
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"Poglej, če resno hočeš to,
01:20
you first have to write a book about your research. You have to publish something,
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moraš prvo napisati knjigo o tvojem raziskovanju. Najprej moraš izdati nekaj.
01:23
and then you'll get the opportunity to write something else.
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Potem boš dobil priložnost pisati o čem drugem.
01:25
If you really want to do it you have to do it."
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Če si res želiš, moraš to naredi na tak način."
01:27
So I said, "You know, I really don't want to write about my research.
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Potem sem odgovoril, "Veste, nočem pisati o svojem raziskovanju.
01:30
I do this all day long. I want to write something else.
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To delam cele dneve. Hočem pisati o u drugih rečeh.
01:32
Something a bit more free, less constrained."
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Nekaj svobodnejšega, manj omejujočega."
01:35
And this person was very forceful and said,
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Ampak ta oseba je bila zelo vztrajna in je rekla,
01:38
"Look. That's the only way you'll ever do it."
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"Poglej, samo na ta način boš lahko to izvedel."
01:40
So I said, "Okay, if I have to do it -- "
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In sem rekel, "OK, če že moram --"
01:43
I had a sabbatical. I said, "I'll write about my research
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Vzel sem si daljši dopust in si rekel, "Pisal bom o svojem delu
01:46
if there is no other way. And then I'll get to do my cookbook."
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če ni druge poti. In nato bom lahko naredil še kuharsko knjigo."
01:48
So I wrote a book on my research.
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In tako sem napisal knjigo o svojih raziskavah.
01:51
And it turned out to be quite fun in two ways.
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Izkazalo se je za kar zabavno. Na dva načina.
01:54
First of all, I enjoyed writing.
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Kot prvo sem užival v pisanju.
01:57
But the more interesting thing was that
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Ampak bolj zanimivo je bilo,
01:59
I started learning from people.
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da sem se začel učit od ljudi.
02:01
It's a fantastic time to write,
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Trenutno je izjemen čas za pisanje.
02:03
because there is so much feedback you can get from people.
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Ljudje dajejo veliko povratnih informacij.
02:05
People write me about their personal experience,
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Pišejo mi o osebnih doživetjih,
02:08
and about their examples, and what they disagree,
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o njhovih primerih, s čim se ne strinjajo
02:10
and nuances.
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in podobno.
02:12
And even being here -- I mean the last few days,
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In tudi v teh nekaj dneh tukaj
02:14
I've known really heights of obsessive behavior
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sem spoznal visoke nivoje obsesivnega obnašanja,
02:17
I never thought about.
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ki si ga nikoli nisem predstavljal.
02:19
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
02:20
Which I think is just fascinating.
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Kar se mi zdi fascinantno.
02:22
I will tell you a little bit about irrational behavior.
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Povedal vam bom nekaj malega o neracionalnem obnašanju.
02:25
And I want to start by giving you some examples of visual illusion
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In začel bom z nekaj primeri optičnih iluzij,
02:28
as a metaphor for rationality.
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kot metaforo za racionalnost.
02:30
So think about these two tables.
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Razmislite o teh mizah.
02:32
And you must have seen this illusion.
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Verjetno ste že videli to iluzijo.
02:34
If I asked you what's longer, the vertical line on the table on the left,
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Če vas vprašam katera je daljša, navpična stranica na levi mizi
02:37
or the horizontal line on the table on the right?
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ali vodoravna stranica na desni mizi?
02:40
Which one seems longer?
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Katera se vam zdi daljša?
02:43
Can anybody see anything but the left one being longer?
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Ali se komu ne zdi leva daljša?
02:46
No, right? It's impossible.
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Nemogoče je, ne?
02:48
But the nice thing about visual illusion is we can easily demonstrate mistakes.
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A lepa lastnost pri optičnih iluzija je, da z lahkoto pokažemo napake.
02:51
So I can put some lines on; it doesn't help.
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Tako lahko dodam nekaj črt gor. Ne pomaga.
02:54
I can animate the lines.
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Lahko animiram črte.
02:56
And to the extent you believe I didn't shrink the lines,
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In v kolikor verjamete, da nisem skrajšal črt -
02:58
which I didn't, I've proven to you that your eyes were deceiving you.
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ki jih nisem - sem dokazal, da so vas oči pretentale.
03:03
Now, the interesting thing about this
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Zanimivo pri vsem tem je,
03:05
is when I take the lines away,
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če odstranim dodatne črte,
03:07
it's as if you haven't learned anything in the last minute.
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izgleda kot, da se v zadnji minuti niste ničesar naučili.
03:09
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
03:12
You can't look at this and say, "Okay now I see reality as it is."
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Ne morete pogledati in reči: "OK, sedaj resnično vidim kako dolge so."
03:15
Right? It's impossible to overcome this
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Je res? Nemogoče je premagati
03:17
sense that this is indeed longer.
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občutek, da je ta v resnici daljša.
03:20
Our intuition is really fooling us in a repeatable, predictable, consistent way.
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Intuicija nas zavaja vedno znova, predvidljivo in konsistentno.
03:23
And there is almost nothing we can do about it,
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In skoraj ničesar ne moremo storiti glede tega.
03:26
aside from taking a ruler and starting to measure it.
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Razen izmeriti sliko z merilom.
03:29
Here is another one -- this is one of my favorite illusions.
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Tukaj je še ena. Ta je ena mojih najljubših iluzij.
03:32
What do you see the color that top arrow is pointing to?
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Kakšna je barva, ki jo kaže zgornja puščica?
03:35
Brown. Thank you.
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Rjava. Hvala.
03:37
The bottom one? Yellow.
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Spodnja? Rumena.
03:39
Turns out they're identical.
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Izkaže se, da sta enaki.
03:41
Can anybody see them as identical?
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Ju lahko kdo vidi kot enaki?
03:43
Very very hard.
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Zelo, zelo težko.
03:45
I can cover the rest of the cube up.
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Lahko pokrijem ostali del kocke.
03:47
And if I cover the rest of the cube you can see that they are identical.
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In če pokrijem ostali del kocke, lahko vidite, da sta barvi identični.
03:50
And if you don't believe me you can get the slide later
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In če mi ne verjamete, lahko dobite to prosojnico kasneje
03:52
and do some arts and crafts and see that they're identical.
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in se sami prepričate, da sta enaki.
03:55
But again it's the same story
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Toda, spet ista zgodba,
03:57
that if we take the background away,
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če odstranim ozadje,
03:59
the illusion comes back. Right.
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se iluzija vrne. Je res?
04:01
There is no way for us not to see this illusion.
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Nikakor se ne moremo izogniti tej iluziji.
04:04
I guess maybe if you're colorblind I don't think you can see that.
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Morda edino, če ste barvno slepi.
04:07
I want you to think about illusion as a metaphor.
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Hočem, da pomislite na iluzijo kot metaforo.
04:10
Vision is one of the best things we do.
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Vid je nekaj, kar počnemo zelo dobro.
04:12
We have a huge part of our brain dedicated to vision --
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Velik del možganov je namenjen vidu.
04:14
bigger than dedicated to anything else.
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Večji kot za karkoli drugega.
04:16
We do more vision more hours of the day than we do anything else.
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Čez dan namenimo večino časa vidu in gledanju.
04:20
And we are evolutionarily designed to do vision.
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In evolucijsko smo prirejeni za vid.
04:22
And if we have these predictable repeatable mistakes in vision,
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In če imamo tako predvidljive in ponovljive napake pri našem vidu
04:25
which we're so good at,
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- v čemer smo sicer zelo dobri -
04:27
what's the chance that we don't make even more mistakes
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kakšna je potem verjetnost, da ne bomo delali še več napak
04:29
in something we're not as good at --
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pri nečem, kjer nismo tako dobri.
04:31
for example, financial decision making:
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Kot na primer finančne odločitve.
04:33
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
04:35
something we don't have an evolutionary reason to do,
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Nekaj, za kar nimamo evolucijskih razlogov.
04:37
we don't have a specialized part of the brain,
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Za kar nimamo specializiranega dela možganov
04:39
and we don't do that many hours of the day.
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in česar ne počnemo veliko časa vsak dan.
04:41
And the argument is in those cases
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Verjeti gre, da v takih primerih
04:44
it might be the issue that we actually make many more mistakes
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dejansko počnemo veliko več napak.
04:48
and, worse, not have an easy way to see them.
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In še slabše - napak ne moremo enostavno opaziti.
04:51
Because in visual illusions we can easily demonstrate the mistakes;
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Pri optičnih iluzijah preprosto prikažemo napake.
04:54
in cognitive illusion it's much, much harder
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Pri kognitivnih iluzijah je mnogo težje
04:56
to demonstrate to people the mistakes.
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ljudem prikazati napake.
04:58
So I want to show you some cognitive illusions,
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Zato bi vam rad na enka način pokazal nekaj kognitivnih iluzij
05:01
or decision-making illusions, in the same way.
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ali odločitvenih iluzij.
05:04
And this is one of my favorite plots in social sciences.
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Ta je eden izmed mojih najljubših grafov iz družbenih ved.
05:07
It's from a paper by Johnson and Goldstein.
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Iz članka avtorjev Johnson and Goldstein.
05:11
And it basically shows
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Prikazuje
05:13
the percentage of people who indicated
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odstotek ljudi, ki so pokazali
05:15
they would be interested in giving their organs to donation.
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zanimanje za doniranje svojih organov.
05:19
And these are different countries in Europe. And you basically
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To so različne države v Evropi in
05:21
see two types of countries:
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vidimo lahko dva tipa držav.
05:23
countries on the right, that seem to be giving a lot;
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Države na desni, ki očitno dajejo veliko.
05:25
and countries on the left that seem to giving very little,
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In države na levi, ki očitno dajejo zelo malo
05:28
or much less.
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ali veliko manj.
05:30
The question is, why? Why do some countries give a lot
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Vprašanje je zakaj? Zakaj nekatere države dajejo veliko
05:32
and some countries give a little?
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in nekater zelo malo?
05:34
When you ask people this question,
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Ko zastaviš ljudem to vprašanje,
05:36
they usually think that it has to be something about culture.
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si navadno mislijo, da je to verjetno zaradi različnih kultur.
05:38
Right? How much do you care about people?
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Je tako? Koliko nekoga skrbi za soljudi in družbo.
05:40
Giving your organs to somebody else
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Donirati organe nekomu
05:42
is probably about how much you care about society, how linked you are.
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je verjetno pogojeno s tem, koliko skrbiš za družbo, kako si povezan.
05:45
Or maybe it is about religion.
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Ali morda z religijo.
05:47
But, if you look at this plot,
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Ampak če pogledamo na ta graf
05:49
you can see that countries that we think about as very similar
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vidimo, da države za katere menimo, da so si podobne
05:52
actually exhibit very different behavior.
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v resnici kažejo precej različno obnašanje.
05:55
For example, Sweden is all the way on the right,
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Na primer, Švedska je skrajno desno.
05:57
and Denmark, that we think is culturally very similar,
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In Danska, za katero mislimo, da je kulturno podobna,
06:00
is all the way on the left.
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je skrajno levo.
06:02
Germany is on the left. And Austria is on the right.
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Nemčija je na levi, Avstrija na desni.
06:06
The Netherlands is on the left. And Belgium is on the right.
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Nizozemska na levi, Belgija ne desni.
06:09
And finally, depending on your particular version
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In končno, odvisno od vašega pogleda
06:12
of European similarity,
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na Evropsko podobnost,
06:14
you can think about the U.K and France as either similar culturally or not.
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si lahko mislimo da sta Velika Britanija in Francija zelo podobni ali pa ne.
06:19
But it turns out that from organ donation they are very different.
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Izkaže pa se, da organe donirajo povsem drugače.
06:23
By the way, the Netherlands is an interesting story.
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Mimogrede, Nizozemska je zanimiva zgodba.
06:25
You see the Netherlands is kind of the biggest of the small group.
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Vidite lahko, da je najvišja od leve skupine držav.
06:30
Turns out that they got to 28 percent
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Izkaže se, da so dobili 28 odstotkov
06:33
after mailing every household in the country a letter
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po tem, ko so poslali vsem gospodinjstvom pismo
06:36
begging people to join this organ donation program.
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kjer so rotili ljudi, da se pridružijo programu za doniranje organov.
06:39
You know the expression, "Begging only gets you so far"?
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Prosjačenje vas pripelje le do neke meje.
06:42
It's 28 percent in organ donation.
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In pri doniranju organov je to 28 odstotkov.
06:45
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
06:47
But whatever the countries on the right are doing
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Vendar karkoli že delajo države iz desne skupine,
06:49
they are doing a much better job than begging.
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delajo to veliko bolje od prosjačenja.
06:51
So what are they doing?
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Kaj torej delajo?
06:53
Turns out the secret has to do with a form at the DMV.
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Izkaže se, da je skrivnost v obrazcu za pristop k programu za donacijo organov.
06:56
And here is the story.
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Zgodba je sledeča:
06:58
The countries on the left have a form at the DMV
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Države iz leve skupine imajo obrazec,
07:00
that looks something like this.
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ki izgleda tako.
07:02
Check the box below if you want to participate
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Odkljukajte ta kvadratek, če hočete sodelovati
07:04
in the organ donor program.
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v programu za donacijo organov.
07:06
And what happens?
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In kaj se zgodi?
07:08
People don't check, and they don't join.
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Ljudje tega ne odkljukajo. Torej se ne prijavijo.
07:11
The countries on the right, the ones that give a lot,
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V državah iz desne skupine, kjer jih veliko sodeluje,
07:13
have a slightly different form.
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pa je obrazec malenkost drugačen.
07:15
It says check the box below if you don't want to participate.
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Odkljukajte kvadratek, če nočete sodelovati.
07:18
Interestingly enough, when people get this,
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Zanimivo je, da v tem primeru
07:20
they again don't check -- but now they join.
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ljudje tudi ne odkljukajo. Toda zdaj se s tem prijavijo.
07:23
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
07:26
Now think about what this means.
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Sedaj pa pomislite, kaj to pomeni.
07:29
We wake up in the morning and we feel we make decisions.
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Zjutraj se zbudimo in si mislimo, da se sami odločamo.
07:33
We wake up in the morning and we open the closet
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Zbudimo se in odpremo omaro.
07:35
and we feel that we decide what to wear.
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In mislimo si, da sami odločamo o tem, kaj bomo oblekli.
07:37
And we open the refrigerator and we feel that we decide what to eat.
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Odpremo hladilnik in spet si mislimo, da se sami odločamo glede hrane.
07:40
What this is actually saying is that
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Ta graf pa nam pravi,
07:42
much of these decisions are not residing within us.
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da teh odločitev ne sprejemamo sami.
07:44
They are residing in the person who is designing that form.
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Odloča oseba, ki pripravlja obrazec.
07:47
When you walk into the DMV,
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Ko vstopite v DMV (oddelek za motorna vozila)
07:50
the person who designed the form will have a huge influence
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ima oseba, ki je obrazec pripravila, ogromen vpliv na to,
07:52
on what you'll end up doing.
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kaj boste na koncu izbrali.
07:54
Now it's also very hard to intuit these results. Think about it for yourself.
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Zelo težko je popolnoma doumeti ta fenomen. Pomislite:
07:58
How many of you believe
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Koliko vas verjame,
08:00
that if you went to renew your license tomorrow,
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da če bi jutri podaljšali vozniško dovoljenje
08:02
and you went to the DMV,
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in bi vstopili v DMV
08:04
and you would encounter one of these forms,
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ter izpolnjevali enega izmed teh obrazcev,
08:06
that it would actually change your own behavior?
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da bi zares spremenili svojo odločitev?
08:09
Very, very hard to think that you will influence us.
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Zelo, zelo težko si predstavljamo, kaj na nas vpliva.
08:11
We can say, "Oh, these funny Europeans, of course it would influence them."
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Rečemo si lahko, "Oh, ti Evropejci. Seveda lahko vpliva na njih."
08:13
But when it comes to us,
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Ampak, ko razmišljamo o sebi,
08:16
we have such a feeling that we are at the driver's seat,
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imamo občutek, da sedimo na voznikovem sedežu,
08:18
we have such a feeling that we are in control,
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imamo občutek, da kontroliramo situacijo
08:20
and we are making the decision,
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in da sami sprejemamo odločitve.
08:22
that it's very hard to even accept
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Zelo težko je sprejeti dejstvo,
08:24
the idea that we actually have
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da imamo v resnici
08:26
an illusion of making a decision, rather than an actual decision.
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iluzijo, da se sami odločamo.
08:30
Now, you might say,
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Rekli boste:
08:32
"These are decisions we don't care about."
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"Te odločitve so postranske"
08:35
In fact, by definition, these are decisions
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Res je, po definiciji so to odločitve
08:37
about something that will happen to us after we die.
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o nečem, kar se nam bo zgodilo po smrti.
08:39
How could we care about something less
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Ne zanima nas prav zelo,
08:42
than something that happens after we die?
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kaj se bo zgodilo po naši smrti.
08:44
So a standard economist, someone who believes in rationality,
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Ekonomist, nekdo ki verjame v racionalnost,
08:47
would say, "You know what? The cost of lifting the pencil
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bi rekel, "Veste kaj? Cena dviga tistega pisala
08:50
and marking a V is higher than the possible
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in odkljukanja kvadratka, je višja
08:52
benefit of the decision,
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od koristi, ki jo prinaša ta odločitev."
08:54
so that's why we get this effect."
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Zato dobimo ta efekt.
08:56
But, in fact, it's not because it's easy.
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Ampak v resnici, ni zato, ker je lahko.
08:59
It's not because it's trivial. It's not because we don't care.
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Ni zato, ker je trivialno. Ni zato, ker nas ne gane.
09:02
It's the opposite. It's because we care.
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Nasprotno. To je zato, ker nas skrbi.
09:05
It's difficult and it's complex.
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Zato ker je težavno in komplekso.
09:07
And it's so complex that we don't know what to do.
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Tako kompleksno, da ne vemo kako se odločiti
09:09
And because we have no idea what to do
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in ker nimamo pojma kaj naj izberemo,
09:11
we just pick whatever it was that was chosen for us.
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izberemo karkoli je že nekdo drug izbral za nas.
09:15
I'll give you one more example for this.
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Dal vam bom še en primer.
09:17
This is from a paper by Redelmeier and Schaefer.
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Ta je iz članka avtorjev Redelmeier and Schaefer.
09:20
And they said, "Well, this effect also happens to experts,
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V njem trdita, "Ta efekt je prisoten tudi pri strokovnjakih.
09:23
people who are well-paid, experts in their decisions,
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Ljudje, ki so dobro plačani za strokovne odločitve,
09:26
do it a lot."
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velikokrat podležejo temu efektu."
09:28
And they basically took a group of physicians.
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Vzeli so skupino zdravnikov
09:30
And they presented to them a case study of a patient.
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in jim pokazali študijo pacienta.
09:32
Here is a patient. He is a 67-year-old farmer.
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To je pacient. Je 67 letni kmet.
09:36
He's been suffering from a right hip pain for a while.
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Ima bolečine v desnem kolku.
09:38
And then they said to the physician,
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Potem jim povejo
09:40
"You decided a few weeks ago
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"Pred nekaj tedni ste se odločili,
09:42
that nothing is working for this patient.
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da nič ne pomaga temu pacientu.
09:44
All these medications, nothing seems to be working.
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Vsa ta zdravila. Nič ne kaže, da bi pomagalo.
09:46
So you refer the patient to hip replacement therapy.
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Zato ste poslali pacienta na zamenjavo kolkov.
09:49
Hip replacement. Okay?"
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Zamenjavo kolkov. Ja?"
09:51
So the patient is on a path to have his hip replaced.
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Pacient je torej na pol poti, da mu zamenjajo kolk.
09:54
And then they said to half the physicians, they said,
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In potem so polovici zdravnikov rekli,
09:56
"Yesterday you reviewed the patient's case
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"Včeraj ste pregledovali pacientove datoteke
09:58
and you realized that you forgot to try one medication.
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in ugotovili, da ste pozabili še eno od zdravil.
10:01
You did not try ibuprofen.
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Niste poskusili z ibuprofenom.
10:04
What do you do? Do you pull the patient back and try ibuprofen?
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Kaj boste storili? Boste odpovedali zamenjavo kolkov in poskusili z ibuprofenom?
10:07
Or do you let them go and have hip replacement?"
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Ali boste pustili, da mu zamenjajo kolk?"
10:10
Well the good news is that most physicians in this case
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Dobra novica je, da v tem primeru večina zdravnikov
10:12
decided to pull the patient and try the ibuprofen.
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odpove zamenjavo in poskusi z ibuprofenom.
10:15
Very good for the physicians.
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Zelo dobro za zdravnike.
10:17
The other group of the physicians, they said,
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Drugi polovici zdravnikov pa so rekli,
10:19
"Yesterday when you reviewed the case
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"Včeraj, ko ste pregledovali pacientove datoteke,
10:21
you discovered there were two medications you didn't try out yet,
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ste ugovotili, da ste pozabili na dve zdravili.
10:23
ibuprofen and piroxicam."
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Ibuprofen in piroxicam."
10:26
And they said, "You have two medications you didn't try out yet. What do you do?
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In potem, "Imate še dve zdravili, s katerimi niste poskusili. Kaj boste storili?
10:29
You let them go. Or you pull them back.
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Pustite pacienta, da mu zamenjajo kolk ali odpoveste zamenjavo?
10:31
And if you pull them back do you try ibuprofen or piroxicam? Which one?"
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In če odpoveste, poskusite z ibuprofenom ali piroxicamom? S katerim?"
10:34
Now think of it. This decision
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Sedaj pa pomislite. Odločitev,
10:36
makes it as easy to let the patient continue with hip replacement.
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da pacientu zamenjajo kolk, je preprosta.
10:39
But pulling them back, all of the sudden becomes more complex.
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Ampak odločitev o odpovedi, kar naekrat postane kompleksna.
10:42
There is one more decision.
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Ker je potem še ena odločitev.
10:44
What happens now?
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Kaj se zgodi v tem primeru?
10:46
Majority of the physicians now choose to let the patient go
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Večina zdravnikov pusti pacienta,
10:49
to hip replacement.
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da mu zamenjajo kolk.
10:51
I hope this worries you, by the way --
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Upam, da vas skrbi --
10:53
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
10:54
when you go to see your physician.
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ko boste naslednjič pri zdravniku.
10:56
The thing is is that no physician would ever say,
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Stvar je v tem, da noben zdravnik ne bi izbiral
10:59
"Piroxicam, ibuprofen, hip replacement.
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"Piroxicam ali ibuprofen ali zamenjava kolka?
11:01
Let's go for hip replacement."
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In izbral zamenjavo kolka.
11:03
But the moment you set this as the default
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Ampak, ko postane to privzeto stanje,
11:06
it has a huge power over whatever people end up doing.
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ima ogromen vpliv na to, kako se bodo ljudje odločili.
11:10
I'll give you a couple of more examples on irrational decision-making.
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Navedel vam bom še nekaj primerov neracionalnega odločanja.
11:13
Imagine I give you a choice.
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Predstavljajte si, da vam dam na izbiro:
11:15
Do you want to go for a weekend to Rome?
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Bi šli za vikend v Rim?
11:17
All expenses paid:
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Vse všteto v ceni,
11:19
hotel, transportation, food, breakfast,
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hotel, prevoz, hrana, zajtrk.
11:21
a continental breakfast, everything.
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čisto vse.
11:23
Or a weekend in Paris?
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Ali vikend v Parizu?
11:25
Now, a weekend in Paris, a weekend in Rome, these are different things;
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Vikend v Parizu in vikend v Rimu sta dve različni zadevi.
11:28
they have different food, different culture, different art.
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Drugačna hrana, drugačna kultura, drugačna umetnost.
11:30
Now imagine I added a choice to the set
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Sedaj pa si predstavljajte, da dodam k izbiri še nekaj,
11:32
that nobody wanted.
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česar si ne bi nihče želel.
11:34
Imagine I said, "A weekend in Rome,
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Recimo, "Vikend v Rimu,
11:36
a weekend in Paris, or having your car stolen?"
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vikend v Parizu, ali pa da vam ukradejo avto?"
11:39
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
11:42
It's a funny idea, because why would having your car stolen,
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Zabavna ideja. Zakaj bi to, da vam ukradejo avto,
11:45
in this set, influence anything?
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kakorkoli vplivalo na odločitev?
11:47
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
11:49
But what if the option to have your car stolen
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Kaj pa če ta izbira kraje
11:52
was not exactly like this.
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ne bi bila točno taka.
11:54
What if it was a trip to Rome, all expenses paid,
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Kaj če bi izbirali med Rimom, z vsem plačanim,
11:56
transportation, breakfast,
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prevoz, zajtrk ...
11:58
but doesn't include coffee in the morning.
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Ampak brez jutranje kave.
12:01
If you want coffee you have to pay for it yourself. It's two euros 50.
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Če hočete kavo, jo morate plačati sami. Dva evra in pol.
12:04
Now in some ways,
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Na nek način,
12:07
given that you can have Rome with coffee,
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ker imate tudi izbiro z Rimom s kavo,
12:09
why would you possibly want Rome without coffee?
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zakaj bi kdo izbral Rim brez kave?
12:12
It's like having your car stolen. It's an inferior option.
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Kot izbira o ropu avtomobila. Slabša izbira.
12:15
But guess what happened. The moment you add Rome without coffee,
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Uganite kaj se zgodi. V trenutku ko dodamo Rim brez kave,
12:17
Rome with coffee becomes more popular. And people choose it.
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postane Rim s kavo najbolj popularen.
12:22
The fact that you have Rome without coffee
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Rim brez kave
12:25
makes Rome with coffee look superior,
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naredi Rim s kavo za superiorno izbiro.
12:27
and not just to Rome without coffee -- even superior to Paris.
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In ne samo v primerjavi z Rimo brez kave, tudi v primerjavi s Parizom.
12:30
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
12:34
Here are two examples of this principle.
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Še dva primera tega principa.
12:36
This was an ad from The Economist a few years ago
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To je oglas iz revije The Economist iz pred nekaj let,
12:39
that gave us three choices.
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na katerem so tri izbire.
12:41
An online subscription for 59 dollars.
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Naročnina na spletne vsebine za 59 dolarjev.
12:44
A print subscription for 125.
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Naročnina na tiskano izdajo za 125.
12:48
Or you could get both for 125.
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Ali oboje za 125.
12:50
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
12:52
Now I looked at this and I called up The Economist.
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Ko sem videl ta oglas, sem poklical na The Economist.
12:54
And I tried to figure out what were they thinking.
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Poskušal sem ugotoviti, kaj so s tem mislili.
12:57
And they passed me from one person to another to another,
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Pošiljali so me od ene osebe do druge itd.
13:00
until eventually I got to a person who was in charge of the website.
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Dokler nisem dobil osebe zadolžene za spletno stran.
13:04
And I called them up. And they went to check what was going on.
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Poklical sem jih in takoj so preverili kaj se dogaja.
13:07
The next thing I know, the ad is gone. And no explanation.
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Kar naenkrat oglas izgine. Brez razlage.
13:11
So I decided to do the experiment
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Zato sem sam naredil eksperiment,
13:13
that I would have loved The Economist to do with me.
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za katerega sem upal, da ga bo The Economist naredil skupaj z mano.
13:16
I took this and I gave it to 100 MIT students.
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Vzel sem ta oglas in ga dal stotim MIT študentom.
13:18
I said, "What would you choose?"
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Rekel sem, "Kaj bi izbrali?"
13:20
These are the market share. Most people wanted the combo deal.
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Takšen je bil rezultat. Večina jih je hotela kombinacijo spletne in tiskane izdaje.
13:24
Thankfully nobody wanted the dominated option.
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Na srečo nihče ni hotel samo tiskane izdaje.
13:26
That means our students can read.
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To pomeni, da naši študentje znajo brati.
13:28
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
13:29
But now if you have an option that nobody wants,
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Ampak, če imaš na izbiro opcijo, ki je nihče noče,
13:32
you can take it off. Right?
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jo lahko odstraniš. Ne?
13:34
So I printed another version of this,
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Zato sem natisnil še eno verzijo,
13:36
where I eliminated the middle option.
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kjer sem odstranil vmesno izbiro.
13:38
I gave it to another 100 students. Here is what happens.
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Oglas sem razdelil med drugih sto študentov. In zgodilo se je to.
13:41
Now the most popular option became the least popular.
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Sedaj je bolj popularna izbira postala prej manj popularna izbira.
13:44
And the least popular became the most popular.
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In najmanj popularno je postalo najbolj popularno.
13:47
What was happening was the option that was useless,
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Izbira, ki je bila neuporabna,
13:51
in the middle, was useless in the sense that nobody wanted it.
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na sredini, je bila neuporabna v smislu, da je nihče ni hotel.
13:55
But it wasn't useless in the sense that it helped people figure out
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Ampak ni bila neuporabna v smislu, da je pomagala ljudem ugotoviti,
13:57
what they wanted.
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kaj hočejo.
13:59
In fact, relative to the option in the middle,
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Relativno na srednjo izbiro,
14:02
which was get only the print for 125,
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ki je samo tiskana izdaja za 125,
14:06
the print and web for 125 looked like a fantastic deal.
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je izbira s tiskano in spletno izdajo za 125 zgledala kot odličen posel.
14:10
And as a consequence, people chose it.
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In zato so ljudje izbirali to.
14:12
The general idea here, by the way,
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Osnovna ideja tukaj je,
14:14
is that we actually don't know our preferences that well.
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da ljudje ne poznamo svojih prefernec zelo dobro.
14:16
And because we don't know our preferences that well
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In ravno zato
14:18
we're susceptible to all of these influences from the external forces:
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smo dovzetni za vse te vplive zunanjih sil.
14:22
the defaults, the particular options that are presented to us, and so on.
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Privzete stvari, določene izbire, ki so nam predstavljene ipd.
14:26
One more example of this.
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Še en primer tega.
14:28
People believe that when we deal with physical attraction,
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Ljudje verjamemo, da pri fizični privlačnosti
14:31
we see somebody, and we know immediately whether we like them or not,
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ko vidimo nekoga, vemo takoj, če nam je všeč ali ne.
14:34
attracted or not.
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Nas privlači ali ne.
14:36
Which is why we have these four-minute dates.
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Zato obstajajo štiriminutni zmenki.
14:38
So I decided to do this experiment with people.
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Odločil sem se za ta eksperiment z ljudmi.
14:41
I'll show you graphic images of people -- not real people.
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Pokazal vam bom slike ljudi. Ne pravih ljudi.
14:43
The experiment was with people.
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Ekperiment je bil z ljudmi.
14:45
I showed some people a picture of Tom, and a picture of Jerry.
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Pokazal sem jim sliko Toma in sliko Jerrya.
14:48
I said "Who do you want to date? Tom or Jerry?"
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Vprašal sem "S katerim bi šli na zmenek? Tom ali Jerry?"
14:51
But for half the people I added an ugly version of Jerry.
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Vendar polovici ljudi sem dodal grdo verzijo Jerrya.
14:55
I took Photoshop and I made Jerry slightly less attractive.
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S Photoshopom sem naredil Jerrya malo manj privlačnega.
15:00
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
15:01
The other people, I added an ugly version of Tom.
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Ostalim pa sme dodal gršo verzijo Toma.
15:05
And the question was, will ugly Jerry and ugly Tom
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In vprašanje je bilo, če bosta grdi Jerry ali grdi Tom
15:08
help their respective, more attractive brothers?
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pomagala svojima bolj privlačnima bratoma?
15:12
The answer was absolutely yes.
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In odgovor je absolutno da.
15:14
When ugly Jerry was around, Jerry was popular.
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Ko je bil vmes grdi Jerry, je bil navadni Jerry zelo popularen.
15:16
When ugly Tom was around, Tom was popular.
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Ko je bil vmes grdi Tom, je bil navadni Tom popularen.
15:18
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
15:20
This of course has two very clear implications
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To ima seveda zelo pomembne posledice
15:22
for life in general.
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za življenje na splošno.
15:26
If you ever go bar hopping, who do you want to take with you?
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Če greste kdaj zvečer ven, veste koga vzeti s seboj?
15:29
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
15:35
You want a slightly uglier version of yourself.
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S seboj hočete malenkost gršo verzijo sebe.
15:38
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
15:40
Similar. Similar ... but slightly uglier.
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Podobno. Podobno, vendar malenkost gršo.
15:42
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
15:44
The second point, or course, is that
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Druga ugotovitev pa je, seveda,
15:46
if somebody else invites you, you know how they think about you.
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če vas kdo povabi ven, veste kaj si misli o vas.
15:49
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
15:52
Now you're getting it.
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Sedaj razumete.
15:54
What is the general point?
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Kaj je splošna ugotovitev?
15:56
The general point is that when we think about economics we have
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Splošna ugotovitev je, da ko razmišljamo o ekonomiji,
15:58
this beautiful view of human nature.
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si zamišljamo čudovit pogled na človeško naravo.
16:01
"What a piece of work is man! How noble in reason!"
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"Kako poseben je človek! S plemenitimi razlogi!"
16:03
We have this view of ourselves, of others.
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Tak pogled imamo nase, na druge.
16:06
The behavioral economics perspective
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Iz vedenjsko ekonomske perspektive
16:08
is slightly less generous to people.
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pa je človek malenkost manj radodaren do ljudi.
16:11
In fact in medical terms, that's our view.
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To je naš pogled.
16:14
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
16:20
But there is a silver lining.
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Ampak obstaja tudi svetla stran.
16:22
The silver lining is, I think,
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Zdi se mi, da je svetla stran tega to,
16:24
kind of the reason that behavioral economics is interesting and exciting.
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da je zaradi tega vedenjska ekonomija zanimiva in razburljiva.
16:28
Are we Superman? Or are we Homer Simpson?
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Smo Superman? Ali pa smo Homer Simpson?
16:30
When it comes to building the physical world,
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Pri ustvarjanju v fizičnem svetu,
16:34
we kind of understand our limitations.
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razumemo svoje meje.
16:36
We build steps. And we build these things
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Gradimo stopnice. In gradimo stvari,
16:38
that not everybody can use obviously.
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ki jih ne more vsakdo uporabljati.
16:41
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
16:42
We understand our limitations,
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Zavedamo se svojih omejitev.
16:44
and we build around it.
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In gradimo okrog njih.
16:46
But for some reason when it comes to the mental world,
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A ko gre za miselni svet,
16:48
when we design things like healthcare and retirement and stockmarkets,
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ko snujemo stvari, kot so zdravstveni sistemi in pokojnine in borze,
16:52
we somehow forget the idea that we are limited.
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vedno pozabimo na dejstvo, da imamo tudi psihološke meje.
16:54
I think that if we understood our cognitive limitations
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Menim da, če bi poznali svoje kognitivne omejitve,
16:57
in the same way that we understand our physical limitations,
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na enak način kot poznamo svoje fizične omejitve,
16:59
even though they don't stare us in the face in the same way,
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čeprav kognitivne niso tako očitne,
17:01
we could design a better world.
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bi lahko naredili svet boljši.
17:04
And that, I think, is the hope of this thing.
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In mislim, da obstaja upanje za to.
17:06
Thank you very much.
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Hvala.
17:08
(Applause)
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(aplavz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economistThe dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why.
Why you should listen
Dan Ariely is a professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke University and a founding member of the Center for Advanced Hindsight. He is the author of the bestsellers Predictably Irrational, The Upside of Irrationality, and The Honest Truth About Dishonesty -- as well as the TED Book Payoff: The Hidden Logic that Shapes Our Motivations.
Through his research and his (often amusing and unorthodox) experiments, he questions the forces that influence human behavior and the irrational ways in which we often all behave.
Dan Ariely | Speaker | TED.com