EG 2008
Dan Ariely: Are we in control of our own decisions?
Den Erijeli se pita da li sami kontrolišemo sopstvene odluke.
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Behavioralni ekonomista, Dan Erijeli, autor knjige Predvidljivo iracionalni, koristi uobičajene optičke varke i svoje vlastite kontraintuitivne (i ponekad šokantne) rezultate istraživanja da bi pokazao da nismo baš toliko racionalni kada donosimo odluke.
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economist
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why. Full bio
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I'll tell you a little bit about irrational behavior.
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Reći ću vam nešto
o iracionalnom ponašanju.
o iracionalnom ponašanju.
00:19
Not yours, of course -- other people's.
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Ne vašem, naravno. Tuđem.
00:21
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
00:22
So after being at MIT for a few years,
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Nakon što sam proveo nekoliko godina na MITu,
00:26
I realized that writing academic papers is not that exciting.
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shvatio sam da pisanje akademskih radova
nije baš toliko uzbudljivo.
nije baš toliko uzbudljivo.
00:30
You know, I don't know how many of those you read,
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Ne znam koliko takvih radova čitate,
00:32
but it's not fun to read and often not fun to write --
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ali nije ih zabavno ni čitati, a često ni pisati.
00:35
even worse to write.
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Još je gore pisati.
00:37
So I decided to try and write something more fun.
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Tako sam odlučio da pokušam
da napišem nešto zabavnije.
da napišem nešto zabavnije.
00:40
And I came up with an idea that I will write a cookbook.
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Došao sam na ideju da napišem kuvar.
00:44
And the title for my cookbook was going to be
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Naslov knjige je trebalo da bude
00:46
"Dining Without Crumbs: The Art of Eating Over the Sink."
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"Ručanje bez mrvica: umetnost jela nad sudoperom."
00:49
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
00:51
And it was going to be a look at life through the kitchen.
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I to je trebalo da bude pogled na život kroz kuhinju.
00:54
And I was quite excited about this. I was going to talk
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Bio sam jako uzbuđen zbog ovoga. Hteo sam da pišem
00:56
a little bit about research, a little bit about the kitchen.
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malo o istraživanju, malo o kuhinji.
00:59
You know, we do so much in the kitchen I thought this would be interesting.
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Znate, radimo toliko toga u kuhinji da sam mislio
da bi ovo moglo biti zanimljivo.
da bi ovo moglo biti zanimljivo.
01:02
And I wrote a couple of chapters.
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Napisao sam par poglavlja
01:04
And I took it to MIT press and they said,
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i odnio u izdavačku kuću MIT-a i oni su mi rekli
01:06
"Cute, but not for us. Go and find somebody else."
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"Lepo je to, ali nije za nas. Idite i nađite nekog drugog."
01:10
I tried other people and everybody said the same thing,
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Pokušao sam i kod drugih ljudi i svi su mi rekli istu stvar.
01:12
"Cute. Not for us."
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"Lepo. Ali nije za nas."
01:15
Until somebody said,
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Sve dok mi neko nije rekao:
01:18
"Look, if you're serious about this,
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"Vidi, ako si ozbiljan oko toga,
01:20
you first have to write a book about your research. You have to publish something,
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prvo treba da napišeš knjigu o svom istraživanju.
Moraš nešto da objaviš,
Moraš nešto da objaviš,
01:23
and then you'll get the opportunity to write something else.
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a onda će ti se pružiti prilika da napišeš nešto drugo.
01:25
If you really want to do it you have to do it."
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Ako stvarno želiš to da uradiš,
onda moraš to i da uradiš."
onda moraš to i da uradiš."
01:27
So I said, "You know, I really don't want to write about my research.
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Ja sam im rekao: "Znate, ja baš i ne želim
da pišem o svom istraživanju.
da pišem o svom istraživanju.
01:30
I do this all day long. I want to write something else.
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Radim to po vasceli dan. Hoću da pišem o nečem drugom.
01:32
Something a bit more free, less constrained."
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O nečemu što je slobodnije, manje sputano."
01:35
And this person was very forceful and said,
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Ova osoba je bila vrlo uporna:
01:38
"Look. That's the only way you'll ever do it."
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"Slušaj, to je jedini način da to uradiš."
01:40
So I said, "Okay, if I have to do it -- "
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"U redu, ako moram...", rekao sam.
01:43
I had a sabbatical. I said, "I'll write about my research
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Bio sam na odmoru. "Pisaću o svom istraživanju..."
01:46
if there is no other way. And then I'll get to do my cookbook."
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"...ako je to jedini način. A onda ću preći na kuvar."
01:48
So I wrote a book on my research.
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Tako sam napisao knjigu o svom istraživanju,
01:51
And it turned out to be quite fun in two ways.
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što je na kraju ispalo vrlo zanimljivo iz dva razloga:
01:54
First of all, I enjoyed writing.
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Prvo, uživao sam pišući.
01:57
But the more interesting thing was that
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Ali još zanimljivije je bilo
01:59
I started learning from people.
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to što sam počeo da učim od drugih ljudi.
02:01
It's a fantastic time to write,
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Ovo je fantastično vreme za pisanje,
02:03
because there is so much feedback you can get from people.
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zato što možete dobiti jako puno povratnih informacija od ljudi.
02:05
People write me about their personal experience,
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Ljudi mi pišu o svojim ličnim iskustvima,
02:08
and about their examples, and what they disagree,
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o svojim primerima i o tome oko čega se ne slažu
02:10
and nuances.
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pišu mi o nijansma.
02:12
And even being here -- I mean the last few days,
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I čak za vreme dok sam ovde, mislim, ovih par dana,
02:14
I've known really heights of obsessive behavior
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susreo sam se sa vrhuncem opsesivnog ponašanja
02:17
I never thought about.
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o kojima nisam ni razmišljao.
02:19
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
02:20
Which I think is just fascinating.
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I mislim da je to fascinantno.
02:22
I will tell you a little bit about irrational behavior.
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Reći ću vam nešto o iracionalnom ponašanju
02:25
And I want to start by giving you some examples of visual illusion
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Počeću sa nekoliko primera optičkih varki
02:28
as a metaphor for rationality.
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kao metoforama za racionalnost.
02:30
So think about these two tables.
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Razmotrimo ova dva stola.
02:32
And you must have seen this illusion.
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Sigurno ste već videli ovu optičku varku.
02:34
If I asked you what's longer, the vertical line on the table on the left,
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Ako bih vas pitao šta je duže, vertikalna linija na stolu sa leve strane
02:37
or the horizontal line on the table on the right?
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ili horizontalna linjia na stolu sa desne strane,
02:40
Which one seems longer?
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za koju biste rekli da je duža?
02:43
Can anybody see anything but the left one being longer?
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Da li neko ne misli da je leva linija duža?
02:46
No, right? It's impossible.
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Nema šanse, zar ne? To je nemoguće.
02:48
But the nice thing about visual illusion is we can easily demonstrate mistakes.
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Ali zgodna stvar kod optičkih varki je da se greške lako demonstriraju.
02:51
So I can put some lines on; it doesn't help.
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Tako mogu da stavim neke linije ali, to ne pomaže.
02:54
I can animate the lines.
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Mogu da animiram ove linije,
02:56
And to the extent you believe I didn't shrink the lines,
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i sve dok mi verujete da nisam smanjio linije,
02:58
which I didn't, I've proven to you that your eyes were deceiving you.
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što naravno, nisam uradio, dokazao sam da su vas vaše oči prevarile.
03:03
Now, the interesting thing about this
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E sad, zanimljiva stvar kod ovoga
03:05
is when I take the lines away,
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je da kada sklonim linije,
03:07
it's as if you haven't learned anything in the last minute.
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ispada da ništa niste naučili prie par trenutaka.
03:09
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
03:12
You can't look at this and say, "Okay now I see reality as it is."
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Ne možete sada da pogledate ovo i kažete: " OK, sada vidim realnost kakva jeste."
03:15
Right? It's impossible to overcome this
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Jel tako? Nemoguće je prevazići taj
03:17
sense that this is indeed longer.
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osećaj da je ova linija stvarno duža.
03:20
Our intuition is really fooling us in a repeatable, predictable, consistent way.
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Naša intuicija nas vara na ponovljiv, predvidiv i konzistentan način.
03:23
And there is almost nothing we can do about it,
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I mi oko toga ne možemo skoro ništa da preduzmemo,
03:26
aside from taking a ruler and starting to measure it.
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osim što možemo da uzmemo lenjir i premerimo celu stvar.
03:29
Here is another one -- this is one of my favorite illusions.
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Evo još jedne. Ovo je jedna od mojih omiljenih optičkih varki.
03:32
What do you see the color that top arrow is pointing to?
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Koje je boje polje na koje pokazuje gornja strelica?
03:35
Brown. Thank you.
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Smeđe. Hvala.
03:37
The bottom one? Yellow.
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A donja? Žuta.
03:39
Turns out they're identical.
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Ispada da su ipak identične.
03:41
Can anybody see them as identical?
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Da li iko vidi da su identične?
03:43
Very very hard.
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Jako, jako teško.
03:45
I can cover the rest of the cube up.
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Mogu i da pokrijem ostatak kocke...
03:47
And if I cover the rest of the cube you can see that they are identical.
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... i ako pokrijem ostatak kocke videćete da su identične.
03:50
And if you don't believe me you can get the slide later
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Ako mi ne verujete, dobićete prezentaciju kasnije,
03:52
and do some arts and crafts and see that they're identical.
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i onda možete da probate svašta i uverite se da su identične.
03:55
But again it's the same story
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Ali i ovde se ponavlja ona priča
03:57
that if we take the background away,
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da ako odstranimo pozadinu,
03:59
the illusion comes back. Right.
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iluzija se vraća.
04:01
There is no way for us not to see this illusion.
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Nemoguće je da ne vidimo tu optičku varku.
04:04
I guess maybe if you're colorblind I don't think you can see that.
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Jedino ako ste možda daltonista onda ne možete da vidite ovo.
04:07
I want you to think about illusion as a metaphor.
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Želim da na optičku varku gledate kao na metaforu.
04:10
Vision is one of the best things we do.
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Vid je jedna od stvari u kojoj smo najbolji.
04:12
We have a huge part of our brain dedicated to vision --
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Veliki dio našeg mozga je rezervisan za vid.
04:14
bigger than dedicated to anything else.
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Veći nego za bilo koju drugu aktivnost.
04:16
We do more vision more hours of the day than we do anything else.
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Tokom dana gledamo više nego što radimo bilo šta drugo.
04:20
And we are evolutionarily designed to do vision.
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A i evolucijski smo razvijeni da se oslanjamo na vid.
04:22
And if we have these predictable repeatable mistakes in vision,
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I ako ponavljamo ove predvidljive greške gledajući,
04:25
which we're so good at,
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u čemu smo jako dobri,
04:27
what's the chance that we don't make even more mistakes
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kakve su šanse da ne pravimo još više grešaka
04:29
in something we're not as good at --
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u nečemu u čemu i nismo tako dobri...
04:31
for example, financial decision making:
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kao na primer, u donošenju odluka o finansijama
04:33
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
04:35
something we don't have an evolutionary reason to do,
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u nečemu za šta nemamo evolucijski razlog da radimo,
04:37
we don't have a specialized part of the brain,
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nemamo specijalizovani deo mozga za to
04:39
and we don't do that many hours of the day.
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i ne radimo to većim delom dana.
04:41
And the argument is in those cases
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I u tim slučajevima može da se tvrdi
04:44
it might be the issue that we actually make many more mistakes
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da mi možda zapravo pravimo mnogo više grešaka
04:48
and, worse, not have an easy way to see them.
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i, što je još gore, ne možemo da ih lako uočimo.
04:51
Because in visual illusions we can easily demonstrate the mistakes;
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Jer kod optičkih varki lako možemo da ukažemo na greške,
04:54
in cognitive illusion it's much, much harder
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dok je kod kognitivnih varki mnogo, mnogo teže
04:56
to demonstrate to people the mistakes.
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ukazati ljudima na greške.
04:58
So I want to show you some cognitive illusions,
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Zato, želim da vam na isti način pokažem neke kognitivne varke,
05:01
or decision-making illusions, in the same way.
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ili varke prilikom donošenja odluka.
05:04
And this is one of my favorite plots in social sciences.
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Ovo je moj omiljeni grafik u društvenim naukama.
05:07
It's from a paper by Johnson and Goldstein.
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On je preuzet iz rada Džonsona i Goldstina
05:11
And it basically shows
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koji u osnovi pokazuje
05:13
the percentage of people who indicated
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procenat osoba koje su navele
05:15
they would be interested in giving their organs to donation.
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da bi bi bili zainteresovane da doniraju svoje organe.
05:19
And these are different countries in Europe. And you basically
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Ovo su različite zemlje u Evropi. U osnovi
05:21
see two types of countries:
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vidite dve vrste zemalja:
05:23
countries on the right, that seem to be giving a lot;
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zemlje na desnoj strani, koje izgleaju kao da daju mnogo;
05:25
and countries on the left that seem to giving very little,
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i zemlje na levoj strani koje izgleda daju jako malo,
05:28
or much less.
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ili mnogo manje.
05:30
The question is, why? Why do some countries give a lot
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Pitanje je zašto? Zašto neke zemlje daju mnogo
05:32
and some countries give a little?
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a neke zemlje daju malo?
05:34
When you ask people this question,
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Kada postavite ovo pitanje,
05:36
they usually think that it has to be something about culture.
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svi obično misle da je u pitanju nešto kulturološko.
05:38
Right? How much do you care about people?
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Jel tako? Koliko je vama stalo do ljudi?
05:40
Giving your organs to somebody else
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Dati svoje organe nekom drugom
05:42
is probably about how much you care about society, how linked you are.
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je verovatno pokazatelj koliko vam je stalo do društva, koliko ste povezani.
05:45
Or maybe it is about religion.
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Ili možda ima veze sa religijom.
05:47
But, if you look at this plot,
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Ali, ako bliže pogledate ovaj grafik,
05:49
you can see that countries that we think about as very similar
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možete videti da zemlje za koje mislimo da su međusobno vrlo slične
05:52
actually exhibit very different behavior.
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u stvari se veoma različito ponašaju.
05:55
For example, Sweden is all the way on the right,
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Na primer, Švedska je potpuno na desnoj strani,
05:57
and Denmark, that we think is culturally very similar,
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a Danska, za koju mislimo da je kulturološki jako slična,
06:00
is all the way on the left.
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je skroz na levoj strani.
06:02
Germany is on the left. And Austria is on the right.
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Nemačka je na levoj. A Austrija je na desnoj.
06:06
The Netherlands is on the left. And Belgium is on the right.
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Holandija je na levoj. A Belgija je na desnoj.
06:09
And finally, depending on your particular version
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I konačno, zavisno od vaše lične verzije
06:12
of European similarity,
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evropskih sličnosti
06:14
you can think about the U.K and France as either similar culturally or not.
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možete razmišljati o Engleskoj i Francuskoj kao kulturološki sličnim ili ne.
06:19
But it turns out that from organ donation they are very different.
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Ispostavlja se da, kada se radi o donacijima organa, su jako različite.
06:23
By the way, the Netherlands is an interesting story.
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Holandija ima, inače, interesantnu priču.
06:25
You see the Netherlands is kind of the biggest of the small group.
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Vidite da je Holandija nekako najveća u grupi malih.
06:30
Turns out that they got to 28 percent
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Ispada da su došli do 28 procenata
06:33
after mailing every household in the country a letter
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posle slanja pisma svakom domaćinstvu u zemlji
06:36
begging people to join this organ donation program.
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kojim su molili ljude da se pridruže programu doniranja organa.
06:39
You know the expression, "Begging only gets you so far"?
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Kako se ono kaže: "Prosjačenjem možete postići samo toliko"?
06:42
It's 28 percent in organ donation.
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Kada govorimo o doniranju organa, to je 28 odsto.
06:45
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
06:47
But whatever the countries on the right are doing
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Ali, šta god zemlje sa desne strane radile
06:49
they are doing a much better job than begging.
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to je mnogo bolje od slanja molbi.
06:51
So what are they doing?
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Šta je to što one rade?
06:53
Turns out the secret has to do with a form at the DMV.
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Ispada da je tajna u formularu Odseka za motorna vozila (OMV).
06:56
And here is the story.
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Evo kako to ide.
06:58
The countries on the left have a form at the DMV
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Zemlje na levoj strani imaju formular u OMV-u
07:00
that looks something like this.
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koji izgleda nekako ovako.
07:02
Check the box below if you want to participate
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Označite ovde ukoliko želite da učestvujete
07:04
in the organ donor program.
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u programu doniranja organa.
07:06
And what happens?
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I šta se dešava?
07:08
People don't check, and they don't join.
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Osobe koje ne označe kvadrat, ne učestvuju.
07:11
The countries on the right, the ones that give a lot,
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Zemlje sa desne strane, one u kojima se daje dosta,
07:13
have a slightly different form.
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imaju malo drugačiji formular.
07:15
It says check the box below if you don't want to participate.
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U njemu vam traže da označite kvadratić ako NE želite da učestvujete.
07:18
Interestingly enough, when people get this,
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Zanimljivo je, kada ljudi dobiju ovo,
07:20
they again don't check -- but now they join.
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oni isto ne označe kvadrat, ali to ovoga puta znači da učestvuju.
07:23
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
07:26
Now think about what this means.
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Sada razmislite o tome šta ovo znači.
07:29
We wake up in the morning and we feel we make decisions.
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Probudimo se ujutru i mislimo da donosimo odluke.
07:33
We wake up in the morning and we open the closet
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Probudimo se ujutru i otvorimo ormar
07:35
and we feel that we decide what to wear.
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i mislimo da odlučujemo šta ćemo obući.
07:37
And we open the refrigerator and we feel that we decide what to eat.
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I otvorimo frižider i mislimo da odlučujemo šta ćemo jesti.
07:40
What this is actually saying is that
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Šta nam ovo zapravo govori je
07:42
much of these decisions are not residing within us.
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da dosta ovih odluka nije na nama.
07:44
They are residing in the person who is designing that form.
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Ove odluke zavise od osobe koja dizajnira formular.
07:47
When you walk into the DMV,
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Kada uđete u OMV,
07:50
the person who designed the form will have a huge influence
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osoba koja je dizajnirala formular imaće veliki uticaj
07:52
on what you'll end up doing.
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na ono što ćete na kraju uraditi.
07:54
Now it's also very hard to intuit these results. Think about it for yourself.
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Jako je teško shvatiti ove rezultate. Razmislite sami o tome.
07:58
How many of you believe
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Koliko vas veruje
08:00
that if you went to renew your license tomorrow,
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da ako biste sutra pošli da obnovite svoju dozvolu,
08:02
and you went to the DMV,
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i pođete u OMV,
08:04
and you would encounter one of these forms,
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i kada biste se sreli sa jednim od ovih formulara,
08:06
that it would actually change your own behavior?
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da bi oni zapravo promenili vaše ponašanje?
08:09
Very, very hard to think that you will influence us.
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Jako, jako je teško misliti da će to uticati na nas.
08:11
We can say, "Oh, these funny Europeans, of course it would influence them."
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Možemo reći: "O, ovi smešni Evropljani, pa naravno da će to uticati na njih."
08:13
But when it comes to us,
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Ali kada se radi o nama (Amerikancima),
08:16
we have such a feeling that we are at the driver's seat,
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imamo takav osećaj da mi vodimo igru,
08:18
we have such a feeling that we are in control,
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imamo taj osećaj da mi kontrolišemo situaciju,
08:20
and we are making the decision,
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i da sami donosimo odluku,
08:22
that it's very hard to even accept
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i jako je teško prihvatiti
08:24
the idea that we actually have
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ideju da mi zapravo imamo
08:26
an illusion of making a decision, rather than an actual decision.
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iliuziju donošenja odluke, pre nego da zaista donosimo odluku.
08:30
Now, you might say,
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Možda ćete reći,
08:32
"These are decisions we don't care about."
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"Ovo su odluke do kojih nam nije stalo".
08:35
In fact, by definition, these are decisions
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Zapravo, po definiciji, ovo su odluke
08:37
about something that will happen to us after we die.
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o nečemu što će se desiti pošto umremo.
08:39
How could we care about something less
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Može li nam nešto biti manje važno
08:42
than something that happens after we die?
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od onoga što će se desiti pošto umremo?
08:44
So a standard economist, someone who believes in rationality,
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Tako, prosečni ekonomista, neko ko veruje u racionalnost,
08:47
would say, "You know what? The cost of lifting the pencil
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može reći:" Znate šta? Samo podizanje olovke
08:50
and marking a V is higher than the possible
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i označavanje V košta više nego moguća
08:52
benefit of the decision,
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korist od odluke,
08:54
so that's why we get this effect."
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i zbog toga dobijamo ovaj efekat."
08:56
But, in fact, it's not because it's easy.
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Ali, zapravo, ovo nije zato što je to lako.
08:59
It's not because it's trivial. It's not because we don't care.
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Ovo nije zato što je beznačajno. Nije zato što nam nije stalo.
09:02
It's the opposite. It's because we care.
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Upravo je suprotno. Ovo se dešava zato što nam je stalo.
09:05
It's difficult and it's complex.
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Ovo je teško i kompleksno.
09:07
And it's so complex that we don't know what to do.
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I toliko je kompleksno da ne znamo šta da radimo.
09:09
And because we have no idea what to do
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I pošto nemamo pojma šta da radimo
09:11
we just pick whatever it was that was chosen for us.
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mi samo odaberemo ono što je već odabrano za nas.
09:15
I'll give you one more example for this.
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Daću vam još primera ovoga.
09:17
This is from a paper by Redelmeier and Schaefer.
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Ovo je iz rada Redelmajera i Šefera.
09:20
And they said, "Well, this effect also happens to experts,
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Oni su rekli:" Dobro, ovaj efekat se takođe dešava i ekspertima,
09:23
people who are well-paid, experts in their decisions,
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ljudima koji su dobro plaćeni, koji su stručni za donošenje odluka
09:26
do it a lot."
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i koji to rade vrlo često."
09:28
And they basically took a group of physicians.
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Uzeli su grupu lekara.
09:30
And they presented to them a case study of a patient.
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Prezentovali su im slučaj jednog pacijenta.
09:32
Here is a patient. He is a 67-year-old farmer.
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Ovo je pacijent. On je poljoprivrednik star 67 godina.
09:36
He's been suffering from a right hip pain for a while.
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Već neko vreme on oseća bol u desnom kuku.
09:38
And then they said to the physician,
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A onda su rekli lekaru,
09:40
"You decided a few weeks ago
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"Pre nekoliko nedelja ste odlučili
09:42
that nothing is working for this patient.
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da ovom pacijentu ništa ne može pomoći..
09:44
All these medications, nothing seems to be working.
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Svi ovi lekovi, čini se da nemaju nikakvog efekta.
09:46
So you refer the patient to hip replacement therapy.
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I uputili ste pacijenta na terapiju zamene kuka.
09:49
Hip replacement. Okay?"
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Zamena kuka. U redu?"
09:51
So the patient is on a path to have his hip replaced.
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Znači, pacijent je na putu da mu se zameni kuk.
09:54
And then they said to half the physicians, they said,
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A onda su polovini lekara iz grupe rekli,
09:56
"Yesterday you reviewed the patient's case
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"Juče ste posmatrali slučaj ovog pacijenta
09:58
and you realized that you forgot to try one medication.
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i shvatili ste da ste zaboravili da probate jedan lek.
10:01
You did not try ibuprofen.
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Niste probali ibuprofen.
10:04
What do you do? Do you pull the patient back and try ibuprofen?
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Šta ćete da uradite? Da li da vratite pacijenta i prepišete ibuprofen?
10:07
Or do you let them go and have hip replacement?"
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Ili ćete ga pustiti da ide na zamenu kuka?"
10:10
Well the good news is that most physicians in this case
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Dobra vest je da je većina lekara u ovom slučaju
10:12
decided to pull the patient and try the ibuprofen.
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odlučila da vrati pacijenta i proba ibuprofen.
10:15
Very good for the physicians.
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Odlično za lekare.
10:17
The other group of the physicians, they said,
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Drugoj grupi lekara su rekli
10:19
"Yesterday when you reviewed the case
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"Juče ste posmatrali ovaj slučaj
10:21
you discovered there were two medications you didn't try out yet,
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i otkrili ste da niste probali još dva leka
10:23
ibuprofen and piroxicam."
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ibuprofen i piroksikam".
10:26
And they said, "You have two medications you didn't try out yet. What do you do?
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A onda su rekli: "Imate dva leka koja niste još probali. Šta ćete da uradite?"
10:29
You let them go. Or you pull them back.
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Da pustite pacijenta, ili ga vratite.
10:31
And if you pull them back do you try ibuprofen or piroxicam? Which one?"
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I ako vratite pacijenta, da lli ćete probati ibuprofen ili piroksikam? Koji od ta dva?
10:34
Now think of it. This decision
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Sada razmislite o ovome. Ova odluka
10:36
makes it as easy to let the patient continue with hip replacement.
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olakšava da se pacijent pusti i da ode na zamenu kuka.
10:39
But pulling them back, all of the sudden becomes more complex.
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Vraćanje pacijenta odjednom postaje složenije.
10:42
There is one more decision.
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Jer postoji još jedna odluka koju treba da donesu.
10:44
What happens now?
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Šta se sada dešava?
10:46
Majority of the physicians now choose to let the patient go
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Većina lekara sada odlučuje da puste pacijenta
10:49
to hip replacement.
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da ide na zamenu kuka.
10:51
I hope this worries you, by the way --
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Nadam se da će vas ovo zabrinuti, inače...
10:53
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
10:54
when you go to see your physician.
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kada odete kod lekara.
10:56
The thing is is that no physician would ever say,
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Nijedan lekar nikada neće reći,
10:59
"Piroxicam, ibuprofen, hip replacement.
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"Piroksikam, ibuprofen, zamena kuka.
11:01
Let's go for hip replacement."
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Ok, idemo sa zamenom kuka."
11:03
But the moment you set this as the default
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Ali u trenutku kada postavite ovo kao osnovni izbor
11:06
it has a huge power over whatever people end up doing.
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onda to ima veliki uticaj na ono što ljudi na kraju urade.
11:10
I'll give you a couple of more examples on irrational decision-making.
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Daću vam još par primera o iracionalnom donošenju odluka.
11:13
Imagine I give you a choice.
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Zamislite da vam dajem da birate.
11:15
Do you want to go for a weekend to Rome?
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Da li želite da odete na vikend u Rim?
11:17
All expenses paid:
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Svi troškovi su plaćeni:
11:19
hotel, transportation, food, breakfast,
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hotel, prevoz, hrana, doručak,
11:21
a continental breakfast, everything.
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kontinentalni doručak, sve.
11:23
Or a weekend in Paris?
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Ili vikend u Parizu?
11:25
Now, a weekend in Paris, a weekend in Rome, these are different things;
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Sada, vikend u Parizu i vikend u Rimu su različite stvari;
11:28
they have different food, different culture, different art.
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imaju različitu hranu, različite kulture, različitu umetnost.
11:30
Now imagine I added a choice to the set
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Sada zamislite da sam ovom izboru dodao nešto
11:32
that nobody wanted.
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što niko nije želio.
11:34
Imagine I said, "A weekend in Rome,
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Zamislite da sam rekao: "Vikend u Rimu,
11:36
a weekend in Paris, or having your car stolen?"
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vikend u Parizu, ili da vam ukradu kola?"
11:39
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
11:42
It's a funny idea, because why would having your car stolen,
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Ovo je zabavna ideja, jer zašto bi vam krađa kola
11:45
in this set, influence anything?
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u ovom setu, uticala na bilo šta?
11:47
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
11:49
But what if the option to have your car stolen
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Ali šta ako opcija da vam ukradu kola
11:52
was not exactly like this.
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nije baš ovakva.
11:54
What if it was a trip to Rome, all expenses paid,
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Šta ako je to put u Rim, svi troškovi plaćeni,
11:56
transportation, breakfast,
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prevoz, doručak,
11:58
but doesn't include coffee in the morning.
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ali ne uključuje kafu ujutru.
12:01
If you want coffee you have to pay for it yourself. It's two euros 50.
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Ako želite kafu, morate sami da platite za nju. To bi bilo dva eura i 50.
12:04
Now in some ways,
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Sada na neki način,
12:07
given that you can have Rome with coffee,
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pošto možete da dobijete Rim sa kafom,
12:09
why would you possibly want Rome without coffee?
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zašto biste uopšte poželeli Rim bez kafe?
12:12
It's like having your car stolen. It's an inferior option.
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Ovo je kao da su vam ukrali kola. Ovo je inferiorna opcija.
12:15
But guess what happened. The moment you add Rome without coffee,
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Ali pogodite šta se desilo. Čim dodate Rim bez kafe,
12:17
Rome with coffee becomes more popular. And people choose it.
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Rim sa kafom postaje popularniji. I ljudi to izaberu.
12:22
The fact that you have Rome without coffee
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Činjenica da imate Rim bez kafe
12:25
makes Rome with coffee look superior,
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čini da Rim sa kafom deluje superiornije,
12:27
and not just to Rome without coffee -- even superior to Paris.
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i to ne samo u odnosu na Rim bez kafe - nego je superiorniji i u odnosu na Pariz.
12:30
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
12:34
Here are two examples of this principle.
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Evo dva primera ovog principa.
12:36
This was an ad from The Economist a few years ago
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Reklama iz časopisa Eknomist od pre nekoliko godina
12:39
that gave us three choices.
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nam je dala tri opcije.
12:41
An online subscription for 59 dollars.
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Onlajn pretplata za 59 dolara.
12:44
A print subscription for 125.
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Štampana pretplata za 125.
12:48
Or you could get both for 125.
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Ili možete da dobijete obe za 125.
12:50
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
12:52
Now I looked at this and I called up The Economist.
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Kada sam ovo video, nazvao sam Ekonomist.
12:54
And I tried to figure out what were they thinking.
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Hteo sam da razumem kakva im je ideja.
12:57
And they passed me from one person to another to another,
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A oni su me prebacivali od jedne do druge osobe,
13:00
until eventually I got to a person who was in charge of the website.
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dok konačno nisu došli do osobe koja je bila zadužena za veb sajt.
13:04
And I called them up. And they went to check what was going on.
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Pozvao sam ih i otišli su da provere šta se dešava.
13:07
The next thing I know, the ad is gone. And no explanation.
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Sledeće što se desilo, reklama je uklonjena. Bez objašnjenja.
13:11
So I decided to do the experiment
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Onda sam odlučio da sprovedem eksperiment
13:13
that I would have loved The Economist to do with me.
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koji bih voleo da Ekonomist uradi sa mnom.
13:16
I took this and I gave it to 100 MIT students.
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Uzeo sam ovo i prosledio 100 studenata MIT-a.
13:18
I said, "What would you choose?"
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Pitao sam: "Šta biste vi odabrali?"
13:20
These are the market share. Most people wanted the combo deal.
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Ovo su rezultati. Većina je htela kombinovanu ponudu.
13:24
Thankfully nobody wanted the dominated option.
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Srećom, niko nije odabrao dominantu opciju.
13:26
That means our students can read.
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Ovo nam pokazuje da naši studenti znaju da čitaju.
13:28
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
13:29
But now if you have an option that nobody wants,
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Ali sada, ako imate opciju koju niko ne želi,
13:32
you can take it off. Right?
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možete da je uklonite. Jel tako?
13:34
So I printed another version of this,
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Onda sam odštampao drugu verziju ovoga,
13:36
where I eliminated the middle option.
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odakle sam sklonio srednju opciju.
13:38
I gave it to another 100 students. Here is what happens.
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Dao sam drugoj stotini studenata. Evo šta se dogodilo.
13:41
Now the most popular option became the least popular.
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Sada je najpopularnija opcija postala najmanje popularna.
13:44
And the least popular became the most popular.
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A najmanje popularna postala je najpopularnija.
13:47
What was happening was the option that was useless,
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Ono što se desilo je da je beskorisna opcija,
13:51
in the middle, was useless in the sense that nobody wanted it.
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u sredini, bila beskorisna u smislu da je niko nije hteo.
13:55
But it wasn't useless in the sense that it helped people figure out
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Ali nije bila beskorisna u smislu da je pomogla ljudima da shvate
13:57
what they wanted.
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šta žele.
13:59
In fact, relative to the option in the middle,
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Zapravo, u poređenju sa opcijom u sredini,
14:02
which was get only the print for 125,
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koja je nudila da se dobije samo štampano izdanje za 125,
14:06
the print and web for 125 looked like a fantastic deal.
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štampano i online izdanje izgledali su kao odlična prilika.
14:10
And as a consequence, people chose it.
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I kao posledica toga, ljudi su birali ovu opciju.
14:12
The general idea here, by the way,
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Inače, osnovna ideja ovde je
14:14
is that we actually don't know our preferences that well.
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da mi zapravo i ne znamo tako dobro šta stvarno hoćemo.
14:16
And because we don't know our preferences that well
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I zbog toga što ne znamo naše preference tako dobro
14:18
we're susceptible to all of these influences from the external forces:
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podložni smo svim ovim uticajima spoljnjih faktora:
14:22
the defaults, the particular options that are presented to us, and so on.
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standardi, posebne opcije koje su nam predstavljene, i tako dalje.
14:26
One more example of this.
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Još jedan primer ovoga.
14:28
People believe that when we deal with physical attraction,
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Ljudi veruju da kada se suočiimo sa fizičkom privlačnošću,
14:31
we see somebody, and we know immediately whether we like them or not,
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kada vidimo nekoga, da odmah znamo da li nam se dopada ili ne,
14:34
attracted or not.
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da li nas privlači ili ne.
14:36
Which is why we have these four-minute dates.
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Zbog toga postoje oni brzinski sastanci od četiri minute.
14:38
So I decided to do this experiment with people.
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Stoga sam odlučio da uradim eksperiment.
14:41
I'll show you graphic images of people -- not real people.
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Pokazaću vam slike ljudi, ne pravih ljudi.
14:43
The experiment was with people.
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Ovaj eksperiment je bio sa ljudima.
14:45
I showed some people a picture of Tom, and a picture of Jerry.
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Pokazao sam nekim ljudima sliku Toma i sliku Džerija.
14:48
I said "Who do you want to date? Tom or Jerry?"
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I rekao sam "Sa kim biste hteli da izađete? Sa Tomom ili Džerijem?"
14:51
But for half the people I added an ugly version of Jerry.
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Ali za jednu polovinu ljudi dodao sam ružnu verziju Džerija.
14:55
I took Photoshop and I made Jerry slightly less attractive.
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Pomoću Fotošopa učinio sam Džerija malo manje atraktivnim.
15:00
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
15:01
The other people, I added an ugly version of Tom.
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Drugim ljudima, dodao sam ružnu verziju Toma.
15:05
And the question was, will ugly Jerry and ugly Tom
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I pitanje je bilo, da li će ružni Džeri i ružni Tom
15:08
help their respective, more attractive brothers?
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pomoći svojoj atraktivnijoj braći?
15:12
The answer was absolutely yes.
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Odgovor je - apsolutno da.
15:14
When ugly Jerry was around, Jerry was popular.
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Kada je ružni Džeri bio prisutan, Džeri je bio popularan.
15:16
When ugly Tom was around, Tom was popular.
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Kada je ružni Tom bio prisutan, Tom je bio popularan.
15:18
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
15:20
This of course has two very clear implications
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Ovo naravno ima dve veoma jasne implikacije
15:22
for life in general.
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na život uopšte.
15:26
If you ever go bar hopping, who do you want to take with you?
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Ako budete išli u noćni provod, koga želite da povedete sa sobom?
15:29
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
15:35
You want a slightly uglier version of yourself.
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Želite malo ružniju verziju sebe.
15:38
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
15:40
Similar. Similar ... but slightly uglier.
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Sličnu. Sličnu... ali malo ružniju.
15:42
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
15:44
The second point, or course, is that
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Druga stvar, naravno, je to
15:46
if somebody else invites you, you know how they think about you.
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da ako vas neko drugi pozove, znate šta misle o vama.
15:49
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
15:52
Now you're getting it.
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Sada vam je jasno.
15:54
What is the general point?
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Šta je opšti zaključak?
15:56
The general point is that when we think about economics we have
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Opšti zaključak je da kada mislimo o ekonomiji imamo
15:58
this beautiful view of human nature.
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ovo divno mišljenje o ljudskoj prirodi.
16:01
"What a piece of work is man! How noble in reason!"
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"Kako je čovek divan! Kako plemenit u umu!"
16:03
We have this view of ourselves, of others.
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Imamo ovakvo mišljenje o nama, o drugima.
16:06
The behavioral economics perspective
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Perspektiva bihevioralne ekonomije
16:08
is slightly less generous to people.
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je malo manje darežljiva prema ljudima.
16:11
In fact in medical terms, that's our view.
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U stvari u medicinskim terminima, to je naše mišljenje.
16:14
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
16:20
But there is a silver lining.
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Ali postoji pozitivna strana.
16:22
The silver lining is, I think,
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Pozitivna strana je, ja mislim,
16:24
kind of the reason that behavioral economics is interesting and exciting.
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to što je bihevioralna ekonomija interesantna i uzbudljiva.
16:28
Are we Superman? Or are we Homer Simpson?
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Jesmo li mi Supermeni? Ili smo Homer Simpson?
16:30
When it comes to building the physical world,
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Kada se radi o izgradnji fizičkog sveta,
16:34
we kind of understand our limitations.
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nekako razumemo naša ograničenja.
16:36
We build steps. And we build these things
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Gradimo stepenice. I gradimo one stvari
16:38
that not everybody can use obviously.
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koje očigledno ne koriste baš svi.
16:41
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
16:42
We understand our limitations,
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Mi razumemo naša ograničenja,
16:44
and we build around it.
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i uzimamo ih u obzir.
16:46
But for some reason when it comes to the mental world,
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Ali iz nekog razloga kada se radi o mentalnom svetu,
16:48
when we design things like healthcare and retirement and stockmarkets,
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kada pravimo stvari poput zdravstva i penzija i berze,
16:52
we somehow forget the idea that we are limited.
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nekako zaboravljamo ideju da smo ograničeni.
16:54
I think that if we understood our cognitive limitations
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Mislim da kada bismo razumeli svoja kognitivna ograničenja
16:57
in the same way that we understand our physical limitations,
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kao što razumemo naša fizička ograničenja,
16:59
even though they don't stare us in the face in the same way,
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mada nisu tako očigledna
17:01
we could design a better world.
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mogli bismo da napravimo bolji svet.
17:04
And that, I think, is the hope of this thing.
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I to je, mislim, nada koja pronalazimo ovde.
17:06
Thank you very much.
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Hvala vam puno.
17:08
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economistThe dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why.
Why you should listen
Dan Ariely is a professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke University and a founding member of the Center for Advanced Hindsight. He is the author of the bestsellers Predictably Irrational, The Upside of Irrationality, and The Honest Truth About Dishonesty -- as well as the TED Book Payoff: The Hidden Logic that Shapes Our Motivations.
Through his research and his (often amusing and unorthodox) experiments, he questions the forces that influence human behavior and the irrational ways in which we often all behave.
Dan Ariely | Speaker | TED.com