EG 2008
Dan Ariely: Are we in control of our own decisions?
Den Arilaj (Dan Ariely) pita, "Da li kontrolišemo svoje odluke?"
Filmed:
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Bihejvioralni ekonomista, Dan Ariely, autor knjige "Predvidivo iracionalni", koristi klasične vizuelne iluzije i neočekivane (i ponekad šokantne) rezultate svojih istraživanja da pokaže kako u donošenju odluka nismo tako racionalni kao što smo mislili.
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economist
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why. Full bio
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I'll tell you a little bit about irrational behavior.
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Reći ću vam nešto o iracionalnom ponašanju.
00:19
Not yours, of course -- other people's.
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Ne vašem, naravno. Tuđem.
00:21
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
00:22
So after being at MIT for a few years,
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Neko vreme sam već na MIT-u (tehnološki institut u Masačusetsu)
00:26
I realized that writing academic papers is not that exciting.
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i shvatio sam da pisanje akademskih radova nije tako uzbudljivo.
00:30
You know, I don't know how many of those you read,
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Ne znam koliko čitate te radove.
00:32
but it's not fun to read and often not fun to write --
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Ali nije zabavno čitati ih i nije zabavno ni pisati ih.
00:35
even worse to write.
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Čak je i gore pisati ih.
00:37
So I decided to try and write something more fun.
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Tako sam odlučio da pokušam da napišem nešto zabavnije.
00:40
And I came up with an idea that I will write a cookbook.
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I palo mi je na pamet da napišem kuvar.
00:44
And the title for my cookbook was going to be
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A naslov za moj kuvar je trebalo da bude
00:46
"Dining Without Crumbs: The Art of Eating Over the Sink."
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"Ručanje bez mrvica: umetnost jedenja iznad sudopere".
00:49
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
00:51
And it was going to be a look at life through the kitchen.
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I trebalo je to da bude pogled na život kroz kuhinju.
00:54
And I was quite excited about this. I was going to talk
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Bio sam prilično uzbuđen zbog toga. Hteo sam da kažem
00:56
a little bit about research, a little bit about the kitchen.
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nešto malo o istraživanju, malo o kuhinji.
00:59
You know, we do so much in the kitchen I thought this would be interesting.
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Znate, toliko stvari radimo u kuhinji, da sam mislio da će biti interesantno.
01:02
And I wrote a couple of chapters.
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I napisao sam nekoliko poglavlja.
01:04
And I took it to MIT press and they said,
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Odneo sam kod izdavača na MIT-u i oni su rekli
01:06
"Cute, but not for us. Go and find somebody else."
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"Simpatično. Ali nije za nas. Nađi nekog drugog."
01:10
I tried other people and everybody said the same thing,
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Probao sam kod drugih i svi su rekli istu stvar,
01:12
"Cute. Not for us."
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"Simpatično. Nije za nas."
01:15
Until somebody said,
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Dok neko nije rekao
01:18
"Look, if you're serious about this,
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"Vidi, ako si ozbiljan u vezi s ovim,
01:20
you first have to write a book about your research. You have to publish something,
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prvo moraš da napišeš knjigu o svom istraživanju. Moraš nešto da objaviš.
01:23
and then you'll get the opportunity to write something else.
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A onda ćeš imati priliku da napišeš nešto drugo.
01:25
If you really want to do it you have to do it."
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Ako stvarno želiš to da uradiš, moraš tako da uradiš."
01:27
So I said, "You know, I really don't want to write about my research.
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Rekao sam, "Znate, stvarno ne želim da pišem o svom istraživanju.
01:30
I do this all day long. I want to write something else.
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To radim po ceo dan. Želim da pišem nešto drugo.
01:32
Something a bit more free, less constrained."
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Nešto slobodnije, manje ograničeno."
01:35
And this person was very forceful and said,
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Ali ova osoba je bila prilično ubedljiva i rekla je
01:38
"Look. That's the only way you'll ever do it."
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"Vidi. To je jedini način na koji možeš to da uradiš."
01:40
So I said, "Okay, if I have to do it -- "
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I tako sam rekao "OK, ako moram tako..."
01:43
I had a sabbatical. I said, "I'll write about my research
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Uzeo sam odsustvo. Rekao sam "Pisaću o svom istraživanju
01:46
if there is no other way. And then I'll get to do my cookbook."
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ako već ne postoji drugi način. A onda ću napisati kuvar."
01:48
So I wrote a book on my research.
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I tako sam napisao knjigu o svom istraživanju.
01:51
And it turned out to be quite fun in two ways.
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Ispostavilo se da je bilo prilično zabavno, na dva načina.
01:54
First of all, I enjoyed writing.
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Prvo, uživao sam u pisanju.
01:57
But the more interesting thing was that
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Ali još interesantnije je da sam
01:59
I started learning from people.
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počeo da učim od ljudi.
02:01
It's a fantastic time to write,
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Ovo je fantastično vreme za pisanje.
02:03
because there is so much feedback you can get from people.
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Dobijate toliko povratnih informacija od ljudi.
02:05
People write me about their personal experience,
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Ljudi mi pišu o svojim ličnim iskustvima,
02:08
and about their examples, and what they disagree,
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o svojim primerima, sa čim se ne slažu,
02:10
and nuances.
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i nijansama.
02:12
And even being here -- I mean the last few days,
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Čak i boravak ovde. U poslednjih nekoliko dana
02:14
I've known really heights of obsessive behavior
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video sam takva opsesivna ponašanja
02:17
I never thought about.
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koja mi nisu padala na pamet.
02:19
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
02:20
Which I think is just fascinating.
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Mislim da je to zadivljujuće.
02:22
I will tell you a little bit about irrational behavior.
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Pričaću vam malo o iracionalnom ponašanju.
02:25
And I want to start by giving you some examples of visual illusion
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Želim da počnem tako što ću vam dati primere vizuelnih iluzija
02:28
as a metaphor for rationality.
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kao metafore za racionalnost.
02:30
So think about these two tables.
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Razmislite o ova dva stola.
02:32
And you must have seen this illusion.
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Sigurno ste videli ovu iluziju.
02:34
If I asked you what's longer, the vertical line on the table on the left,
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Kad bih vas pitao koja linija je duža, ova vertikalna na stolu sa leve strane,
02:37
or the horizontal line on the table on the right?
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ili ova horizontalna na stolu sa desne strane?
02:40
Which one seems longer?
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Koja izgleda duža?
02:43
Can anybody see anything but the left one being longer?
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Da li neko vidi nešto osim toga da je ova s leve strane duža?
02:46
No, right? It's impossible.
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Ne, je l' tako? Nemoguće je.
02:48
But the nice thing about visual illusion is we can easily demonstrate mistakes.
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Ali lepa stvar kod vizuelnih iluzija je ta što se lako mogu prikazati greške.
02:51
So I can put some lines on; it doesn't help.
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Mogu staviti neke linije. Ne pomaže.
02:54
I can animate the lines.
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Mogu pomeriti linije.
02:56
And to the extent you believe I didn't shrink the lines,
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I ako mi verujete da nisam smanjivao linije,
02:58
which I didn't, I've proven to you that your eyes were deceiving you.
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a nisam, dokazao sam vam da vas oči varaju.
03:03
Now, the interesting thing about this
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E sad, interesantno je da
03:05
is when I take the lines away,
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kad sklonim linije,
03:07
it's as if you haven't learned anything in the last minute.
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kao da ništa niste naučili u prethodnom trenutku.
03:09
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
03:12
You can't look at this and say, "Okay now I see reality as it is."
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Ne možete da pogledate ovo i kažete "OK, sad vidim stvarnost onakvu kakva je."
03:15
Right? It's impossible to overcome this
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Zar ne? Nemoguće je prevazići
03:17
sense that this is indeed longer.
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osećaj da je ova zaista duža.
03:20
Our intuition is really fooling us in a repeatable, predictable, consistent way.
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Naša intuicija nas stvarno vara na dosledan, predvidiv način koji se ponavlja.
03:23
And there is almost nothing we can do about it,
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I skoro ništa ne možemo da uradimo povodom toga.
03:26
aside from taking a ruler and starting to measure it.
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Osim da uzmemo lenjir i počnemo da merimo.
03:29
Here is another one -- this is one of my favorite illusions.
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Evo još jedne. Ovo je jedna od meni omiljenih iluzija.
03:32
What do you see the color that top arrow is pointing to?
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Na koju boju pokazuje ta gornja strelica?
03:35
Brown. Thank you.
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Braon. Hvala.
03:37
The bottom one? Yellow.
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A donja? Žutu.
03:39
Turns out they're identical.
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Ispostavlja se da su identične.
03:41
Can anybody see them as identical?
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Da li ih neko vidi kao identične?
03:43
Very very hard.
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Veoma, veoma teško.
03:45
I can cover the rest of the cube up.
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Mogu da prekrijem ostatak kocke,
03:47
And if I cover the rest of the cube you can see that they are identical.
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i ako to uradim možete videti da su identične.
03:50
And if you don't believe me you can get the slide later
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Ako mi ne verujete možete kasnije dobiti slajd
03:52
and do some arts and crafts and see that they're identical.
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i izvesti neke trikove i videćete da su identične.
03:55
But again it's the same story
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I opet ista priča,
03:57
that if we take the background away,
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ako ukolnimo pozadinu,
03:59
the illusion comes back. Right.
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iluzija se vraća. Tako je.
04:01
There is no way for us not to see this illusion.
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Ne postoji način da ne vidimo ovu iluziju.
04:04
I guess maybe if you're colorblind I don't think you can see that.
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Pretpostavljam da ako ste slepi za boje ne možete da je vidite.
04:07
I want you to think about illusion as a metaphor.
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Želim da razmislite o iluziji kao metafori.
04:10
Vision is one of the best things we do.
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Vid je jedna od stvari koje najbolje radimo.
04:12
We have a huge part of our brain dedicated to vision --
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Ogroman deo našeg mozga posvećen je vidu.
04:14
bigger than dedicated to anything else.
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Veći nego što je posvećem bilo čemu drugom.
04:16
We do more vision more hours of the day than we do anything else.
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Više vremena provodimo gledajući nego što radimo bilo šta drugo.
04:20
And we are evolutionarily designed to do vision.
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Evolutivno smo napravljeni da gledamo.
04:22
And if we have these predictable repeatable mistakes in vision,
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A ako ovakve predvidive greške koje se ponavljaju imamo u našem vidu,
04:25
which we're so good at,
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u kom smo toliko dobri,
04:27
what's the chance that we don't make even more mistakes
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kakve su šanse da ne pravimo još veće greške
04:29
in something we're not as good at --
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u nečemu u čemu nismo tako dobri.
04:31
for example, financial decision making:
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Na primer, odlučivanje o finansijama.
04:33
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
04:35
something we don't have an evolutionary reason to do,
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To je nešto za šta nemamo evolutivni razlog.
04:37
we don't have a specialized part of the brain,
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Nemamo specijalizovani deo mozga
04:39
and we don't do that many hours of the day.
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i ne provodimo toliko sati dnevno radeći to.
04:41
And the argument is in those cases
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Tvrdim da je u tim slučajevima
04:44
it might be the issue that we actually make many more mistakes
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stvar u tome da ustvari pravimo još više grešaka.
04:48
and, worse, not have an easy way to see them.
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Što je još gore, nemamo jednostavan način da ih primetimo.
04:51
Because in visual illusions we can easily demonstrate the mistakes;
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Jer kod vizuelnih iluzija možemo jednostavno da prikažemo greške.
04:54
in cognitive illusion it's much, much harder
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Kod kognitivnih iluzija mnogo je teže
04:56
to demonstrate to people the mistakes.
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ljudima pokazati greške.
04:58
So I want to show you some cognitive illusions,
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Želim da vam pokažem neke kognitivne iluzije,
05:01
or decision-making illusions, in the same way.
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iluzije u vezi sa odlukama, na isti način.
05:04
And this is one of my favorite plots in social sciences.
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Ovo mi je jedan od omiljenih grafika u socijalnoj nauci.
05:07
It's from a paper by Johnson and Goldstein.
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Iz jednog rada Džonsona i Goldstina.
05:11
And it basically shows
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Pokazuje
05:13
the percentage of people who indicated
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procenat ljudi koji su naveli
05:15
they would be interested in giving their organs to donation.
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da bi bili zainteresovani da doniraju organe.
05:19
And these are different countries in Europe. And you basically
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Ovo su različite zemlje u Evropi. Možete videti
05:21
see two types of countries:
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dve vrste zemalja.
05:23
countries on the right, that seem to be giving a lot;
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Zemlje sa desne strane, koje doniraju mnogo.
05:25
and countries on the left that seem to giving very little,
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I zemlje sa leve strane koje izgleda da doniraju malo,
05:28
or much less.
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ili mnogo manje.
05:30
The question is, why? Why do some countries give a lot
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Pitanje je: Zašto? Zašto neke zemlje daju mnogo
05:32
and some countries give a little?
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a neke zemlje daju malo?
05:34
When you ask people this question,
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Kada postavite ljudima ovo pitanje,
05:36
they usually think that it has to be something about culture.
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oni obično misle da to ima neke veze sa kulturom.
05:38
Right? How much do you care about people?
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Zar ne? Koliko vam je stalo do ljudi?
05:40
Giving your organs to somebody else
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Davanje svojih organa nekome
05:42
is probably about how much you care about society, how linked you are.
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verovatno pokazuje koliko vam je stalo do društva, koliko ste povezani.
05:45
Or maybe it is about religion.
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Ili možda to ima veze sa religijom.
05:47
But, if you look at this plot,
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Ali ako pogledate ovaj grafik,
05:49
you can see that countries that we think about as very similar
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vidite da zemlje za koje mislimo da su slične
05:52
actually exhibit very different behavior.
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zapravo pokazuju različito ponašanje.
05:55
For example, Sweden is all the way on the right,
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Na primer, Švedska je skroz na desnoj strani.
05:57
and Denmark, that we think is culturally very similar,
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A Danska, za koju mislimo da je u kulturnom smislu veoma slična,
06:00
is all the way on the left.
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je skroz na levoj strani.
06:02
Germany is on the left. And Austria is on the right.
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Nemačka je na levoj strani. A Austrija na desnoj.
06:06
The Netherlands is on the left. And Belgium is on the right.
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Holandija je na levoj. A Belgija na desnoj strani.
06:09
And finally, depending on your particular version
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I na kraju, zavisno od vašeg viđenja
06:12
of European similarity,
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sličnosti u Evropi
06:14
you can think about the U.K and France as either similar culturally or not.
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možete misliti da su Velika Britanija i Francuska kulturno slične ili različite.
06:19
But it turns out that from organ donation they are very different.
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Ali se ispostavlja da su u pogledu donacije organa veoma različite.
06:23
By the way, the Netherlands is an interesting story.
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Uzgred, Holandija ima interesantnu priču.
06:25
You see the Netherlands is kind of the biggest of the small group.
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Vidite kako je Holandija nekako najveća u grupi malih.
06:30
Turns out that they got to 28 percent
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Došli su do 28%
06:33
after mailing every household in the country a letter
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tako što su poslali pismo svakom domaćinstvu u zemlji
06:36
begging people to join this organ donation program.
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i molili ljude da se prijave za program donacije organa.
06:39
You know the expression, "Begging only gets you so far"?
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Znate za izraz "kukanjem se ništa ne postiže."
06:42
It's 28 percent in organ donation.
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Postiže se 28% u programu donacije organa.
06:45
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
06:47
But whatever the countries on the right are doing
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Šta god da rade ove zemlje sa desne strane
06:49
they are doing a much better job than begging.
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sigurno rade mnogo više od kukanja.
06:51
So what are they doing?
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Pa šta to rade?
06:53
Turns out the secret has to do with a form at the DMV.
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Ispostavilo se da je tajna u formularima koji se popunjavaju u SUP-u.
06:56
And here is the story.
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Priča je sledeća.
06:58
The countries on the left have a form at the DMV
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Zemlje sa leve strane imaju u SUP-u formular
07:00
that looks something like this.
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koji izgleda otprilike ovako.
07:02
Check the box below if you want to participate
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Obeležite polje ako želite da se prijavite
07:04
in the organ donor program.
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za program donacije organa.
07:06
And what happens?
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I šta se dešava?
07:08
People don't check, and they don't join.
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Ljudi ne obeleže. I ne prijave se.
07:11
The countries on the right, the ones that give a lot,
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Zemlje sa desne strane, ove što doniraju mnogo,
07:13
have a slightly different form.
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imaju malo drugačiji formular.
07:15
It says check the box below if you don't want to participate.
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On glasi obeležite polje ako ne želite da se prijavite.
07:18
Interestingly enough, when people get this,
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Interesantno je da, kad ljudi ovo vide,
07:20
they again don't check -- but now they join.
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opet ne obeleže. Ali sad se prijave.
07:23
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
07:26
Now think about what this means.
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Razmislite šta ovo znači.
07:29
We wake up in the morning and we feel we make decisions.
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Probudimo se ujutru i osećamo da donosimo odluke.
07:33
We wake up in the morning and we open the closet
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Probudimo se ujutru i otvorimo orman.
07:35
and we feel that we decide what to wear.
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I osećamo da odlučujemo o tome šta da obučemo.
07:37
And we open the refrigerator and we feel that we decide what to eat.
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I otvorimo frižider. I osećamo da odlučujemo o tome šta da jedemo.
07:40
What this is actually saying is that
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A ovo govori da
07:42
much of these decisions are not residing within us.
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mnoge od tih odluka ne zavise od nas.
07:44
They are residing in the person who is designing that form.
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One zavise od osobe koja pravi taj formular.
07:47
When you walk into the DMV,
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Kada uđete u SUP
07:50
the person who designed the form will have a huge influence
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osoba koja je napravila taj formular imaće ogroman uticaj
07:52
on what you'll end up doing.
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na ono šta ćete uraditi.
07:54
Now it's also very hard to intuit these results. Think about it for yourself.
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Takođe je veoma teško naslutiti ove rezultate. Razmislite o tome.
07:58
How many of you believe
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Koliko vas veruje
08:00
that if you went to renew your license tomorrow,
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da, ako odete sutra da produžite dozvolu
08:02
and you went to the DMV,
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u SUP
08:04
and you would encounter one of these forms,
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i naiđete na neki od ovih formulara
08:06
that it would actually change your own behavior?
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da bi oni promenili vaše ponašanje?
08:09
Very, very hard to think that you will influence us.
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Veoma je teško zamisliti da bi uticali na nas.
08:11
We can say, "Oh, these funny Europeans, of course it would influence them."
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Možemo reći "O, ti smešni Evropljani, naravno da će uticati na njih."
08:13
But when it comes to us,
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Ali kad se radi o nama
08:16
we have such a feeling that we are at the driver's seat,
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mi imamo takav osećaj da smo za volanom,
08:18
we have such a feeling that we are in control,
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imamo osećaj da imamo kontrolu,
08:20
and we are making the decision,
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da donosimo odluku,
08:22
that it's very hard to even accept
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da je teško čak i prihvatiti
08:24
the idea that we actually have
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ideju da zapravo
08:26
an illusion of making a decision, rather than an actual decision.
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imamo samo iluziju donošenja odluke, a ne i stvarnu odluku.
08:30
Now, you might say,
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Možete reći
08:32
"These are decisions we don't care about."
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"To su odluke do kojih nam nije stalo."
08:35
In fact, by definition, these are decisions
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Ustvari, po definiciji, to su odluke
08:37
about something that will happen to us after we die.
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o nečemu što će nam se desiti kad umremo.
08:39
How could we care about something less
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Kako da nas bude briga za nešto
08:42
than something that happens after we die?
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što će nam se desiti kad umremo?
08:44
So a standard economist, someone who believes in rationality,
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Obični ekonomista, neko ko veruje u racionalnost,
08:47
would say, "You know what? The cost of lifting the pencil
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rekao bi "Znate šta? Cena podizanja olovke
08:50
and marking a V is higher than the possible
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i obeležavanja polja je viša od moguće
08:52
benefit of the decision,
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dobiti od odluke."
08:54
so that's why we get this effect."
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Zato dobijamo ovaj efekat.
08:56
But, in fact, it's not because it's easy.
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Ali, ustvari, nije zato što je lako.
08:59
It's not because it's trivial. It's not because we don't care.
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Ne zato što je trivijalno. Ne zato što nam nije stalo.
09:02
It's the opposite. It's because we care.
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Upravo suprotno. Stalo nam je do toga.
09:05
It's difficult and it's complex.
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Teško je i složeno.
09:07
And it's so complex that we don't know what to do.
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I toliko je složeno da ne znamo šta da radimo.
09:09
And because we have no idea what to do
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I zato što nemamo ideju šta da radimo
09:11
we just pick whatever it was that was chosen for us.
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mi samo uzmemo nešto što je već odabrano za nas.
09:15
I'll give you one more example for this.
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Daću vam još jedan primer ovoga.
09:17
This is from a paper by Redelmeier and Schaefer.
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Ovo je iz rada Redelmajera i Šefera.
09:20
And they said, "Well, this effect also happens to experts,
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Oni kažu "Ovo se dešava i stručnjacima,
09:23
people who are well-paid, experts in their decisions,
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ljudima koji su dobro plaćeni, iskusni u svojim odlukama,
09:26
do it a lot."
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koji to puno rade."
09:28
And they basically took a group of physicians.
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I uzeli su grupu lekara opšte prakse.
09:30
And they presented to them a case study of a patient.
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Pokazali su im nalaze nekog pacijenta.
09:32
Here is a patient. He is a 67-year-old farmer.
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To je pacijent od 67 godina, zemljoradnik.
09:36
He's been suffering from a right hip pain for a while.
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Već neko vreme ima bolove u desnom kuku.
09:38
And then they said to the physician,
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I rekli su lekaru,
09:40
"You decided a few weeks ago
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"Pre nekoliko nedelja odlučili ste
09:42
that nothing is working for this patient.
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da ništa ne pomaže ovom pacijentu.
09:44
All these medications, nothing seems to be working.
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Svi ovi lekovi i izgleda da ništa ne deluje.
09:46
So you refer the patient to hip replacement therapy.
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Pa ste uputili pacijenta na terapiju veštačkog kuka.¼
09:49
Hip replacement. Okay?"
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Na ugrađivanje veštačkog kuka. OK?"
09:51
So the patient is on a path to have his hip replaced.
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I tako je pacijent na putu da mu se zameni kuk.
09:54
And then they said to half the physicians, they said,
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Onda su polovini lekara rekli
09:56
"Yesterday you reviewed the patient's case
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"Juče ste ponovo pogledali slučaj ovog pacijenta
09:58
and you realized that you forgot to try one medication.
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i shvatili da ste zaboravili da isprobate jedan lek.
10:01
You did not try ibuprofen.
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Niste probali ibuprofen.
10:04
What do you do? Do you pull the patient back and try ibuprofen?
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Šta ćete uraditi? Da li ćete vratiti pacijenta i probati ibuprofen?
10:07
Or do you let them go and have hip replacement?"
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Ili ćete ga pustiti da ode na operaciju zamene kuka?"
10:10
Well the good news is that most physicians in this case
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Dobra vest je da su skoro svi lekari iz ove studije
10:12
decided to pull the patient and try the ibuprofen.
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odlučili da vrate pacijenta i probaju ibuprofen.
10:15
Very good for the physicians.
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Vrlo dobro za lekare.
10:17
The other group of the physicians, they said,
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Drugoj grupi lekara rečeno je
10:19
"Yesterday when you reviewed the case
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"Juče, kada ste ponovo razmatrali ovaj slučaj
10:21
you discovered there were two medications you didn't try out yet,
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otkrili ste da postoje dva leka koja još niste isprobali,
10:23
ibuprofen and piroxicam."
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ibuprofen i piroksikam."
10:26
And they said, "You have two medications you didn't try out yet. What do you do?
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I rekli su im "Imate dva leka koja niste isprobali. Šta ćete uraditi?
10:29
You let them go. Or you pull them back.
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Pustićete pacijenta. Ili ga vratiti.
10:31
And if you pull them back do you try ibuprofen or piroxicam? Which one?"
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I ako ga vratite, da li ćete probati ibuprofen ili piroksikam? Koji od ta dva?"
10:34
Now think of it. This decision
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Razmislite sada. Ovde je
10:36
makes it as easy to let the patient continue with hip replacement.
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lako odlučiti da pustimo pacijenta na operaciju kuka.
10:39
But pulling them back, all of the sudden becomes more complex.
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Ali vraćanje odjednom postaje mnogo složenije.
10:42
There is one more decision.
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Postoji još jedna odluka.
10:44
What happens now?
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Šta se događa sada?
10:46
Majority of the physicians now choose to let the patient go
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Većina lekara sada bira da pusti pacijenta
10:49
to hip replacement.
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na operaciju ugradnje veštačkog kuka.
10:51
I hope this worries you, by the way --
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Nadam se da vas ovo zabrinjava...½
10:53
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
10:54
when you go to see your physician.
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kada odete kod svog lekara.
10:56
The thing is is that no physician would ever say,
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Radi se o tome da nijedan lekar neće nikada reći
10:59
"Piroxicam, ibuprofen, hip replacement.
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"Piroksikam, iburpofen, veštački kuk.
11:01
Let's go for hip replacement."
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Može veštački kuk."
11:03
But the moment you set this as the default
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Ali u trenutku kad se tako nešto podrazumeva
11:06
it has a huge power over whatever people end up doing.
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to ima ogroman uticaj na to šta će ljudi na kraju uraditi.
11:10
I'll give you a couple of more examples on irrational decision-making.
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Daću vam još par primera o iracionalnom odlučivanju.
11:13
Imagine I give you a choice.
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Zamislite da vam dam sledeći izbor.
11:15
Do you want to go for a weekend to Rome?
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Da li želite da idete na vikend u Rim?
11:17
All expenses paid:
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Svi troškovi plaćeni,
11:19
hotel, transportation, food, breakfast,
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hotel, prevoz, hrana, doručak,
11:21
a continental breakfast, everything.
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kontinentalni doručak, sve.
11:23
Or a weekend in Paris?
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Ili vikend u Parizu?
11:25
Now, a weekend in Paris, a weekend in Rome, these are different things;
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E sad, vikend u Parizu i vikend u Rimu su različite stvari.
11:28
they have different food, different culture, different art.
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Hrana je drugačija, kultura je drugačija, umetnost je drugačija.
11:30
Now imagine I added a choice to the set
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Sad zamislite da sam ovome dodao izbor
11:32
that nobody wanted.
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koji niko ne želi.
11:34
Imagine I said, "A weekend in Rome,
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Zamislite da sam rekao "Vikend u Rimu,
11:36
a weekend in Paris, or having your car stolen?"
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vikend u Parizu ili da vam ukradu kola?"
11:39
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
11:42
It's a funny idea, because why would having your car stolen,
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To je smešno. Jer, zašto bi krađa vaših kola
11:45
in this set, influence anything?
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u ovom izboru uticala na nešto?
11:47
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
11:49
But what if the option to have your car stolen
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Ali šta ako opcija da vam ukradu kola
11:52
was not exactly like this.
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nije baš ovakva.
11:54
What if it was a trip to Rome, all expenses paid,
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Šta ako imate put u Rim, sa plaćenim troškovima,
11:56
transportation, breakfast,
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prevoz, doručak.
11:58
but doesn't include coffee in the morning.
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Ali ne uključuje kafu ujutru.
12:01
If you want coffee you have to pay for it yourself. It's two euros 50.
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Ako želite kafu morate sami da platite. To je 2.50€.
12:04
Now in some ways,
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U nekim slučajevima,
12:07
given that you can have Rome with coffee,
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s obzirom da možete imati Rim sa kafom,
12:09
why would you possibly want Rome without coffee?
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zašto biste uopšte želeli Rim bez kafe?
12:12
It's like having your car stolen. It's an inferior option.
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To je kao da vam ukradu kola. To je lošija opcija.
12:15
But guess what happened. The moment you add Rome without coffee,
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Ali pogodite šta se desilo. Čim dodate Rim bez kafe,
12:17
Rome with coffee becomes more popular. And people choose it.
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Rim sa kafom postane popularniji. I ljudi ga biraju.
12:22
The fact that you have Rome without coffee
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Činjenica da imate Rim bez kafe
12:25
makes Rome with coffee look superior,
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čini Rim sa kafom boljom opcijom.¼
12:27
and not just to Rome without coffee -- even superior to Paris.
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I ne samo u odnosu na Rim bez kafe, nego i u odnosu na Pariz.
12:30
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
12:34
Here are two examples of this principle.
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Evo dva primera ovog principa.
12:36
This was an ad from The Economist a few years ago
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Ovo je bio oglas u Ekonomistu pre nekoliko godina,
12:39
that gave us three choices.
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koji je nudio tri izbora.
12:41
An online subscription for 59 dollars.
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Online pretplatu za 59 dolara.
12:44
A print subscription for 125.
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Štampanu pretplatu za 125 dolara.
12:48
Or you could get both for 125.
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Ili obe, za 125 dolara.
12:50
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
12:52
Now I looked at this and I called up The Economist.
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Video sam ovo i pozvao Ekonomist.
12:54
And I tried to figure out what were they thinking.
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Pokušao sam da shvatim šta su mislili.
12:57
And they passed me from one person to another to another,
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Prebacivali su me sa jedne osobe na drugu,
13:00
until eventually I got to a person who was in charge of the website.
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dok konačno nisam dobio osobu koja je zadužena za sajt.
13:04
And I called them up. And they went to check what was going on.
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Nazvao sam je, i ona je otišla da proveri o čemu se radi.
13:07
The next thing I know, the ad is gone. And no explanation.
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Sledeće što se desilo je da je oglas nestao. Bez objašnjenja.
13:11
So I decided to do the experiment
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Tako sam odlučio da sprovedem ovaj eksperiment
13:13
that I would have loved The Economist to do with me.
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za koji bih voleo da ga je Ekonomist uradio sa mnom.
13:16
I took this and I gave it to 100 MIT students.
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Uzeo sam ovaj oglas i dao ga grupi od 100 studenata na MIT-u.
13:18
I said, "What would you choose?"
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Pitao sam "Šta biste izabrali?"
13:20
These are the market share. Most people wanted the combo deal.
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Ovo su tržišne cene, većina je želela kombinaciju.
13:24
Thankfully nobody wanted the dominated option.
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Srećom niko nije želeo dominantnu opciju.
13:26
That means our students can read.
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To znači da naši studenti umeju da čitaju.
13:28
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
13:29
But now if you have an option that nobody wants,
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Ali ako imate opciju koju niko ne želi
13:32
you can take it off. Right?
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možete je ukloniti. Zar ne?
13:34
So I printed another version of this,
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Odštampao sam novu verziju ovoga.
13:36
where I eliminated the middle option.
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U kojoj sam eliminisao srednju opciju.
13:38
I gave it to another 100 students. Here is what happens.
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Dao sam je novoj grupi od 100 studenata. Evo šta se desilo.
13:41
Now the most popular option became the least popular.
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Sada je najpopularnija opcija postala najmanje popularna,
13:44
And the least popular became the most popular.
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a najmanje popularna postala je najpopularnija.
13:47
What was happening was the option that was useless,
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Desilo se da je opcija koja je bila beskorisna,
13:51
in the middle, was useless in the sense that nobody wanted it.
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u sredini, bila beskorisna u smislu da je niko nije želeo.
13:55
But it wasn't useless in the sense that it helped people figure out
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Ali nije bila beskorisna u smislu da je pomagala ljudima da shvate
13:57
what they wanted.
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šta žele.
13:59
In fact, relative to the option in the middle,
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Zapravo, u odnosu na opciju u sredini,
14:02
which was get only the print for 125,
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koja je davala samo štampano izdanje za 125 dolara,
14:06
the print and web for 125 looked like a fantastic deal.
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štampano i internet izdanje za 125 bila je fantastična ponuda.
14:10
And as a consequence, people chose it.
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I tako su ljudi to i birali.
14:12
The general idea here, by the way,
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Glavna ideja ovde je
14:14
is that we actually don't know our preferences that well.
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da mi ustvari ne znamo uopšte šta želimo.
14:16
And because we don't know our preferences that well
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I zato što ne znamo tako dobro šta želimo,
14:18
we're susceptible to all of these influences from the external forces:
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podložni smo svim ovim uticajima spoljnih sila.
14:22
the defaults, the particular options that are presented to us, and so on.
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Podrazumevanim, određenim opcijama koje nam se predstavljaju. I tako dalje.
14:26
One more example of this.
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Još jedan primer ovoga.
14:28
People believe that when we deal with physical attraction,
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Ljudi veruju da, kad se radi o fizičkoj privlačnosti,
14:31
we see somebody, and we know immediately whether we like them or not,
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kad nekoga vidimo znamo odmah da li nam se dopada ili ne.
14:34
attracted or not.
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Da li nas privlači ili ne.
14:36
Which is why we have these four-minute dates.
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Zato imamo one sastanke u 4 minuta.
14:38
So I decided to do this experiment with people.
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Tako sam odlučio da sprovedem ovaj eksperiment sa ljudima.
14:41
I'll show you graphic images of people -- not real people.
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Vama ću pokazati slike ljudi, ne prave ljude.
14:43
The experiment was with people.
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Eksperiment je bio sa ljudima.
14:45
I showed some people a picture of Tom, and a picture of Jerry.
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Pokazao sam nekim ljudima sliku Toma i sliku Džerija.
14:48
I said "Who do you want to date? Tom or Jerry?"
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I pitao "S kim biste voleli da izlazite? Sa Tomom ili Džerijem?"
14:51
But for half the people I added an ugly version of Jerry.
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Ali za polovinu ljudi dodao sam ružnu verziju Džerija.
14:55
I took Photoshop and I made Jerry slightly less attractive.
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Uzeo sam fotošop i napravio Džerija malo manje privlačnim.
15:00
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
15:01
The other people, I added an ugly version of Tom.
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Za druge ljude, dodao sam ružnu verziju Toma.
15:05
And the question was, will ugly Jerry and ugly Tom
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Pitanje je bilo, da li će ružni Džeri i ružni Tom,
15:08
help their respective, more attractive brothers?
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pomoći svojoj prethodnoj, privlačnijoj braći?
15:12
The answer was absolutely yes.
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Odgovor je bio apsolutno da.
15:14
When ugly Jerry was around, Jerry was popular.
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Kad je tu bio ružni Džeri, Džeri je bio popularan.
15:16
When ugly Tom was around, Tom was popular.
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Kad je tu bio i ružni Tom, Tom je bio popularan.
15:18
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
15:20
This of course has two very clear implications
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Ovo naravno ima dve veoma jasne implikacije
15:22
for life in general.
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na život uopšte.
15:26
If you ever go bar hopping, who do you want to take with you?
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Ako idete u izlazak po kafićima, koga želite da povedete sa sobom?
15:29
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
15:35
You want a slightly uglier version of yourself.
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Želite malo ružniju verziju sebe.
15:38
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
15:40
Similar. Similar ... but slightly uglier.
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Sličnu. Sličnu, ali malo ružniju.
15:42
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
15:44
The second point, or course, is that
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Druga stvar je, naravno, ta
15:46
if somebody else invites you, you know how they think about you.
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da ako vas neko drugi pozove, onda znate šta misli o vama.
15:49
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
15:52
Now you're getting it.
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Sada kapirate.
15:54
What is the general point?
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Šta je glavna poenta?
15:56
The general point is that when we think about economics we have
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Poenta je da kada razmišljamo o ekonomiji imamo
15:58
this beautiful view of human nature.
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divan pogled na ljudsku prirodu.
16:01
"What a piece of work is man! How noble in reason!"
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"Kakvo je remek delo čovek! Kako je plemenit umom!"
16:03
We have this view of ourselves, of others.
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Ovako vidimo sebe i druge.
16:06
The behavioral economics perspective
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Perspektiva bihejvioralne ekonomije (ponašanja)
16:08
is slightly less generous to people.
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je malo manje blagonaklona prema ljudima.
16:11
In fact in medical terms, that's our view.
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Ustvari, u medicinskim terminima, tako izgledamo.
16:14
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
16:20
But there is a silver lining.
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Ali postoji svetlo na kraju tunela.
16:22
The silver lining is, I think,
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To svetlo je, po mom mišljenju,
16:24
kind of the reason that behavioral economics is interesting and exciting.
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ono zbog čega je bihejvioralna ekonomija interesantna i uzbudljiva.
16:28
Are we Superman? Or are we Homer Simpson?
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Da li smo Supermen? Ili Homer Simpson?
16:30
When it comes to building the physical world,
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Kad se radi o izgradnji fizičkog sveta,
16:34
we kind of understand our limitations.
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donekle su nam jasna naša ograničenja.
16:36
We build steps. And we build these things
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Gradimo stepenice. I pravimo ove stvari
16:38
that not everybody can use obviously.
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koje očigledno ne zna svako da koristi.
16:41
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
16:42
We understand our limitations,
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Razumemo svoja ograničenja.
16:44
and we build around it.
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I obilazimo ih.
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But for some reason when it comes to the mental world,
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Ali iz nekog razloga, kad se radi o mentalnom svetu,
16:48
when we design things like healthcare and retirement and stockmarkets,
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kad pravimo stvari kao što su zdravstveni sistem ili penzionisanje ili berze,
16:52
we somehow forget the idea that we are limited.
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nekako zaboravimo ideju da smo ograničeni.
16:54
I think that if we understood our cognitive limitations
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Mislim da, kad bismo razumeli naša kognitivna ograničenja
16:57
in the same way that we understand our physical limitations,
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na isti način na koji razumemo naša fizička ograničenja,
16:59
even though they don't stare us in the face in the same way,
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iako nam ne stoje pred nosom na isti način,
17:01
we could design a better world.
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mogli bismo da napravimo bolji svet.
17:04
And that, I think, is the hope of this thing.
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I to je, mislim i nada ovoga.
17:06
Thank you very much.
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Hvala vam mnogo
17:08
(Applause)
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(aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economistThe dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why.
Why you should listen
Dan Ariely is a professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke University and a founding member of the Center for Advanced Hindsight. He is the author of the bestsellers Predictably Irrational, The Upside of Irrationality, and The Honest Truth About Dishonesty -- as well as the TED Book Payoff: The Hidden Logic that Shapes Our Motivations.
Through his research and his (often amusing and unorthodox) experiments, he questions the forces that influence human behavior and the irrational ways in which we often all behave.
Dan Ariely | Speaker | TED.com