TEDWomen 2010
Hans Rosling: The magic washing machine
Hans Rosling i čarobna perilica rublja
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Koji je najveći izum industrijske revolucije? Hans Rosling kaže da je to bila perilica rublja. S novo dozajniranom grafikom iz Gapminder-a, Rosling nam prikazuje čaroliju koja iskače kada gospodarski rast i struja pretvore dosadan dan za pranje u intelektualan dan čitanja.
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
I was only four years old
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Bilo mi je samo četiri godine
00:17
when I saw my mother load a washing machine
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kada sam vidio kako moja mama puni perilicu rublja
00:20
for the very first time in her life.
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po prvi put u svom životu.
00:23
That was a great day for my mother.
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To je bio veliki dan za moju majku.
00:25
My mother and father had been saving money for years
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Moja majka i otac su štedjeli novac godinama
00:28
to be able to buy that machine,
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kako bi mogli kupiti tu perilicu.
00:30
and the first day it was going to be used,
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I prvi dan kada se trebala početi koristiti,
00:32
even Grandma was invited
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čak je i baka bila pozvana
00:34
to see the machine.
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da vidi perilicu.
00:36
And Grandma was even more excited.
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A baka je bila još uzbuđenija.
00:39
Throughout her life
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Kroz cijeli svoj život
00:41
she had been heating water with firewood,
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grijala je vodu pomoću drva i vatre,
00:43
and she had hand washed laundry
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i ručno je prala odjeću
00:45
for seven children.
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za sedmero djece.
00:47
And now she was going to watch
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A sada će gledati
00:50
electricity do that work.
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kako struja radi taj posao.
00:53
My mother carefully opened the door,
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Moja majka je pažljivo otvorila vrata,
00:57
and she loaded the laundry
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i stavila je odjeću
00:59
into the machine,
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u perilicu,
01:01
like this.
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ovako.
01:03
And then, when she closed the door,
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A zatim, kada je zatvorila vrata,
01:05
Grandma said, "No, no, no, no.
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baka je rekla, "Ne, ne, ne, ne.
01:07
Let me, let me push the button."
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Daj meni, daj meni da pritisnem gumb."
01:11
And Grandma pushed the button,
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I baka je pritisnula gumb,
01:13
and she said, "Oh, fantastic!
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i rekla je, "O, fantastično.
01:16
I want to see this! Give me a chair!
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Želim vidjeti to. Dajte mi stolicu.
01:18
Give me a chair! I want to see it,"
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Dajte mi stolicu. Želim vidjeti to."
01:20
and she sat down in front of the machine,
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I sjela je ispred perilice,
01:23
and she watched the entire washing program.
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i promatrala je cijeli program pranja.
01:27
She was mesmerized.
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Bila je zadivljena.
01:29
To my grandmother,
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Mojoj baki,
01:32
the washing machine was a miracle.
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perilica rublja je bila čudo.
01:35
Today, in Sweden and other rich countries,
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Danas, u Švedskoj i drugim bogatim zemljama,
01:38
people are using
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ljudi koriste
01:40
so many different machines.
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toliko mnogo uređaja.
01:42
Look, the homes are full of machines.
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Gledajte, domovi su puni uređaja;
01:44
I can't even name them all.
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čak ih ne mogu ni sve nabrojati.
01:46
And they also, when they want to travel,
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I isto tako, kada žele putovati,
01:49
they use flying machines
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oni koriste leteće strojeve
01:52
that can take them to remote destinations.
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koji ih mogu odvesti na udaljene destinacije.
01:54
And yet, in the world, there are so many people
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A ipak, u svijetu, ima toliko mnogo ljudi
01:56
who still heat the water on fire,
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koji još uvijek griju vodu na vatri,
01:59
and they cook their food on fire.
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i kuhaju svoju hranu na vatri.
02:02
Sometimes they don't even have enough food,
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Ponekad nemaju čak ni dovoljno hrane.
02:04
and they live below the poverty line.
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I oni žive ispod granice siromaštva.
02:07
There are two billion fellow human beings
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Ima dvije milijarde ljudskih bića
02:10
who live on less than two dollars a day.
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koja žive s manje od dva dolara dnevno.
02:12
And the richest people over there --
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A najbogatiji ljudi ovdje --
02:14
there's one billion people --
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to je jedna milijarda ljudi --
02:16
and they live above what I call the "air line,"
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a oni žive iznad onoga što ja nazivam zračna granica,
02:20
because they spend more than $80 a day
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jer troše više od 80$ dnevno
02:23
on their consumption.
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na njihovu potrošnju.
02:25
But this is just one, two, three billion people,
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Ali to je samo jedna, dvije, tri milijarde ljudi,
02:28
and obviously there are seven billion people in the world,
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a očito na svijetu ima sedam milijardi ljudi,
02:31
so there must be one, two, three, four billion people more
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stoga mora biti jedna, dvije, tri, četiri milijarde ljudi više,
02:34
who live in between the poverty and the air line.
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koji žive između granice siromaštva i zračne granice.
02:37
They have electricity,
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Oni imaju struju,
02:40
but the question is, how many have washing machines?
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ali pitanje je, koliko njih ima perilice rublja?
02:43
I've done the scrutiny of market data,
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Napravio sam pregled tržišnih podataka,
02:46
and I've found that, indeed,
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i otkrio sam, doista,
02:48
the washing machine has penetrated below the air line,
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da je perilica rublja penetrirala ispod zračne linije,
02:51
and today there's an additional one billion people out there
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i danas postoji dodatna milijarda ljudi tamo
02:54
who live above the "wash line."
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koji žive iznad granice pranja.
02:57
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:59
And they consume more than $40 per day.
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I oni troše više od 40$ dnevno.
03:03
So two billion have access to washing machines.
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Dakle, dvije milijarde ljudi ima pristup perilicama rublja.
03:06
And the remaining five billion,
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A ostalih pet milijardi,
03:08
how do they wash?
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kako oni peru?
03:10
Or, to be more precise,
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Ili, da budemo precizni,
03:12
how do most of the women in the world wash?
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kako većina žene na svijetu pere?
03:15
Because it remains hard work for women to wash.
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Jer ostaje težak posao na ženama da peru.
03:19
They wash like this: by hand.
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One peru ovako: ručno.
03:22
It's a hard, time-consuming labor,
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To je težak rad koji uzima mnogo vremena,
03:26
which they have to do for hours every week.
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a koji moraju raditi satima svaki tjedan.
03:29
And sometimes they also have to bring water from far away
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I ponekad moraju isto tako donijeti vodu izdaleka
03:32
to do the laundry at home,
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kako bi oprali rublje kod kuće.
03:34
or they have to bring the laundry away to a stream far off.
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Ili moraju odnijeti rublje na izvor koji je veoma udaljen.
03:38
And they want the washing machine.
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A one žele perilicu rublja.
03:41
They don't want to spend such a large part of their life
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One ne žele provesti toliko velik dio svojih života
03:44
doing this hard work
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radeći taj težak posao
03:46
with so relatively low productivity.
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s relativnom malom produktivnošću.
03:48
And there's nothing different in their wish
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I ne razlikuju se u svojim željama
03:50
than it was for my grandma.
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od moje bake.
03:52
Look here, two generations ago in Sweden --
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Pogledajte ovdje, prije dvije generacije u Švedskoj --
03:55
picking water from the stream,
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uzimajući vodu iz potoka,
03:57
heating with firewood and washing like that.
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zagrijavajući je pomoću vatre i prati ovako.
04:00
They want the washing machine in exactly the same way.
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One žele perilicu rublja na točno isti način.
04:03
But when I lecture to environmentally-concerned students,
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Ali kada predajem studentima zabrinutim za okoliš,
04:06
they tell me, "No, everybody in the world cannot have cars and washing machines."
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oni mi kažu, "Ne, ne mogu svi na svijetu imati automobile i perilice rublja."
04:11
How can we tell this woman
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Kako možemo reći ovoj ženi
04:13
that she ain't going to have a washing machine?
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da ona neće imati perilicu rublja?
04:15
And then I ask my students,
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A zatim pitam svoje studente,
04:17
I've asked them -- over the last two years I've asked,
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pitao sam ih -- tijekom protekle dvije godine sam ih pitao,
04:19
"How many of you doesn't use a car?"
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"Koliko od vas ne koristi automobil?"
04:21
And some of them proudly raise their hand
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I nekoliko njih ponosno digne ruke
04:23
and say, "I don't use a car."
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i kaže, "Ja ne koristim automobil."
04:25
And then I put the really tough question:
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A zatim postavim doista teško pitanje:
04:27
"How many of you
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"Koliko od vas
04:29
hand-wash your jeans and your bed sheets?"
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pere ručno svoje hlače i plahte?"
04:31
And no one raised their hand.
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I nitko ne digne ruku.
04:34
Even the hardcore in the green movement
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Čak i oni najpredaniji zelenom pokretu
04:37
use washing machines.
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koriste perilice rublja.
04:39
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
04:43
So how come [this is] something that everyone uses
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Dakle, kako to da nešto što svatko koristi
04:45
and they think others will not stop it? What is special with this?
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i misle kako drugi neće prestati to koristiti; što je posebno kod toga?
04:48
I had to do an analysis about the energy used in the world.
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Morao sam napraviti analizu o potrošnji energije u svijetu.
04:51
Here we are.
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Evo nas.
04:53
Look here, you see the seven billion people up there:
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Gledajte ovdje, vidite sedam milijardi ljudi ovdje gore:
04:55
the air people, the wash people,
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zračni ljudi, ljudi pranja,
04:57
the bulb people and the fire people.
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ljudi žarulje i ljudi vatre.
05:00
One unit like this
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Jedna jedinica poput ove
05:02
is an energy unit of fossil fuel --
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je jedinica energije fosilnog goriva --
05:05
oil, coal or gas.
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nafta, ugljen ili plin.
05:07
That's what most of electricity and the energy in the world is.
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To je ono od čega se većina svjetske energije sastoji.
05:11
And it's 12 units used in the entire world,
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I troši se 12 jedinica u cijelom svijetu,
05:14
and the richest one billion, they use six of them.
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i milijardu najbogatijih, oni koriste šest jedinica.
05:17
Half of the energy is used by one seventh of the world's population.
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Polovicu energije koristi jedna sedmina svjetskog stanovništva.
05:20
And these ones who have washing machines,
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A ovi koji imaju perilice rublja,
05:22
but not a house full of other machines,
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ali ne i kuću punu drugih uređaja,
05:24
they use two.
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oni koriste dvije jedinice.
05:26
This group uses three, one each.
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Ova grupa koristi tri, svaka po jednu.
05:28
And they also have electricity.
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A oni ujedno imaju i struju.
05:30
And over there they don't even use one each.
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A ovi ovdje ne koriste niti jednu.
05:33
That makes 12 of them.
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To čini 12 jedinica.
05:35
But the main concern
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Ali glavna briga
05:37
for the environmentally-interested students -- and they are right --
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za studente zainteresirane za okoliš -- i oni su u pravu --
05:40
is about the future.
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je za budućnost.
05:42
What are the trends? If we just prolong the trends,
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Koji su trendovi? Ako samo produžimo trendove,
05:45
without any real advanced analysis, to 2050,
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bez ikakve stvarne napredne analize, do 2050. godine,
05:48
there are two things that can increase the energy use.
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postoje dvije stvari koje mogu povećati potrošnju energije.
05:51
First, population growth.
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Prvo, rast stanovništva.
05:53
Second, economic growth.
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Drugo, gospodarski rast.
05:55
Population growth will mainly occur among the poorest people here
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Rast stanovništva će se uglavnom odvijati ovdje među najsiromašnijim ljudima,
05:58
because they have high child mortality
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jer oni imaju visoku stopu smrtnosti djece
06:00
and they have many children per woman.
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i oni imaju mnogo djece po ženi.
06:02
And [with] that you will get two extra,
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A s time ćete dobiti dodatna dva,
06:04
but that won't change the energy use very much.
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ali to neće previše promijeniti potrošnju energije.
06:06
What will happen is economic growth.
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Ono što će se dogoditi je gospodarski rast.
06:09
The best of here in the emerging economies --
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Najbolji ovdje u ekonomijama u usponu --
06:11
I call them the New East --
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ja ih nazivam "Novi istok" --
06:13
they will jump the air line.
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oni će preskočiti zračnu granicu.
06:15
"Wopp!" they will say.
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"Wopp!" će reći.
06:17
And they will start to use as much as the Old West are doing already.
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I počet će koristiti toliko koliko sada koristi "Stari zapad".
06:20
And these people, they want the washing machine.
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A ovi ljudi, oni žele perilice rublja.
06:23
I told you. They'll go there.
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Rekao sam vam. Oni će ići ovdje.
06:25
And they will double their energy use.
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I oni će udvostručiti svoju potrošnju energije.
06:27
And we hope that the poor people will get into the electric light.
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I nadamo se kako će siromašni ljudi doći pod električnu žarulju.
06:30
And they'll get a two-child family without a stop in population growth.
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I dobit će obitelj s dvoje djece bez prestanka rasta stanovništva.
06:32
But the total energy consumption
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Ali ukupna potrošnja energije
06:34
will increase to 22 units.
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će narasti na 22 jedinice.
06:36
And these 22 units --
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A od te 22 jedinice,
06:39
still the richest people use most of it.
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još uvijek najbogatiji ljudi koriste najviše njih.
06:43
So what needs to be done?
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Dakle, što treba učiniti?
06:45
Because the risk,
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Zbog rizika,
06:47
the high probability of climate change is real.
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visoka vjerojatnost klimatskih promjena je stvarna.
06:50
It's real.
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Stvarna je.
06:52
Of course they must be more energy-efficient.
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Naravno da trebaju biti energetski učinkovitiji.
06:55
They must change behavior in some way.
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Moraju promijeniti ponašanje na neki način.
06:57
They must also start to produce green energy,
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Moraju ujedno početi proizvoditi zelenu energiju,
06:59
much more green energy.
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mnogo više zelene energije.
07:01
But until they have the same energy consumption per person,
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Ali sve dok imaju istu potrošnju energije po osobi,
07:04
they shouldn't give advice to others --
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ne bi trebali davati savjete drugima --
07:06
what to do and what not to do.
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što učiniti i što ne učiniti.
07:08
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
07:10
Here we can get more green energy all over.
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Ovdje posvuda možemo dobiti više zelene energije.
07:14
This is what we hope may happen.
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To je ono čemu se nadamo da će se dogoditi.
07:16
It's a real challenge in the future.
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To je pravi izazov u budućnosti.
07:19
But I can assure you that this woman in the favela in Rio,
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Ali mogu vam jamčiti da ova žena u siromašnoj četvrti u Riu,
07:22
she wants a washing machine.
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želi perilicu rublja.
07:24
She's very happy about her minister of energy
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Ona je vrlo sretna sa svojom ministricom energije
07:27
that provided electricity to everyone --
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koja je dala struju svima --
07:29
so happy that she even voted for her.
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toliko sretna da je čak i glasala za nju.
07:32
And she became Dilma Rousseff,
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I ona je postala Dilma Rousseff,
07:34
the president-elect
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izabrana predsjednica
07:36
of one of the biggest democracies in the world --
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jedne od najvećih demokracija na svijetu --
07:38
moving from minister of energy to president.
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prelazeći od ministrice energije do predsjednice.
07:41
If you have democracy,
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Ako imate demokraciju,
07:43
people will vote for washing machines.
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ljudi će glasati za perilice rublja.
07:45
They love them.
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Oni ih vole.
07:49
And what's the magic with them?
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A što je čarobno kod njih?
07:51
My mother explained the magic with this machine
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Moja majka mi je objasnila čaroliju tog stroja
07:54
the very, very first day.
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prvi dan.
07:56
She said, "Now Hans,
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Rekla je, "Sada, Hans,
07:58
we have loaded the laundry.
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napunili smo je rubljem;
08:00
The machine will make the work.
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perilica će napraviti posao.
08:02
And now we can go to the library."
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I sada možemo ići u knjižnicu."
08:04
Because this is the magic:
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Jer to je čarolija:
08:06
you load the laundry,
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napunite je rubljem,
08:08
and what do you get out of the machine?
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a što izlazi van iz perilice?
08:10
You get books out of the machines,
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Iz nje izlaze knjige,
08:13
children's books.
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dječje knjige.
08:15
And mother got time to read for me.
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I majka je imala vremena da mi ih čita.
08:17
She loved this. I got the "ABC's" --
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Ona je voljela to. Dobio sam "ABC."
08:19
this is where I started my career as a professor,
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Tu sam započeo svoju karijeru kao profesor,
08:22
when my mother had time to read for me.
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kada je moja majka imala vremena da mi čita.
08:24
And she also got books for herself.
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I isto tako je uzimala knjige za sebe.
08:26
She managed to study English
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Uspjela je učiti engleski
08:28
and learn that as a foreign language.
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i naučiti to kao strani jezik.
08:30
And she read so many novels,
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I ovdje je čitala toliko mnogo romana,
08:32
so many different novels here.
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toliko mnogo različitih romana.
08:35
And we really, we really loved this machine.
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I mi smo doista, doista voljeli taj stroj.
08:39
And what we said, my mother and me,
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I što smo rekli, moja majka i ja,
08:42
"Thank you industrialization.
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"Hvala industrijalizaciji.
08:45
Thank you steel mill.
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Hvala željezari.
08:47
Thank you power station.
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Hvala električnoj centrali.
08:49
And thank you chemical processing industry
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I hvala kemijskoj prerađivačkoj industriji
08:52
that gave us time to read books."
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koja nam je dala vremena da čitamo knjige."
08:54
Thank you very much.
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Puno vam hvala.
08:56
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionaryIn Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
Why you should listen
Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.
What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.
Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)
Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.
Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com