TED2009
Hans Rosling: Insights on HIV, in stunning data visuals
هانس ڕۆسلین دەربارەی ڤایرۆسی دژە بەرگری لەش: ڕاستەیە تازەکان و داتا سەرنڕاکێش و بینراوەکان
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Hans Rosling unveils new data visuals that untangle the complex risk factors of one of the world's deadliest (and most misunderstood) diseases: HIV. He argues that preventing transmissions -- not drug treatments -- is the key to ending the epidemic.
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
(Applause)
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چەپڵە لێدان
00:18
AIDS was discovered 1981; the virus, 1983.
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نه‌خۆشی(ئایدز) له‌ساڵی ١٩٨١ دۆزرایه‌و و ڤایرۆسه‌که‌ش له‌ساڵی ١٩٨٣
00:23
These Gapminder bubbles show you
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ئه‌م خشته‌یه ئه‌وه‌تان نیشان ده‌دات
00:25
how the spread of the virus was in 1983 in the world,
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که بڵاوبوونه‌وه‌ی ئه‌م ڤایرۆسه له‌ساڵی ١٩٨٣ له‌جیهاندا چۆن بوو
00:29
or how we estimate that it was.
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یان چۆن ئێمه ده‌ی خه‌مڵێنین که چۆن بووه
00:31
What we are showing here is --
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ئه‌وه‌ی که لیره‌دا نیشانی ده‌ده‌ین ئه‌وه‌یه
00:33
on this axis here, I'm showing percent of infected adults.
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له‌م ته‌وه‌ره‌دا، من گه‌نجانی توش بوو نیشان ده‌ده‌م
00:40
And on this axis, I'm showing dollars per person in income.
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وه له‌م ته‌وه‌ره‌دا، داهاتووی تاکه که‌سێک به دۆلار نیشان ده‌ده‌م
00:45
And the size of these bubbles, the size of the bubbles here,
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قه‌باره‌ی ئه‌م هه‌ڵاوسانه، ئه‌م قه‌بارانه‌ی ئێره
00:49
that shows how many are infected in each country,
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که توش بووان له‌هه‌ر وڵاتێک نیشان ده‌دات
00:52
and the color is the continent.
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وه ڕه‌نگه که (کیشوەرەکە ) نیشان ده‌دات
00:54
Now, you can see United States, in 1983,
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ئێستا، ده‌توانن ئه‌مه‌ریکا له‌ساڵی ١٩٨٣ ببین
00:56
had a very low percentage infected,
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ڕێژه‌یه‌کی که‌می توش بووانی هه‌بووه
00:59
but due to the big population, still a sizable bubble.
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به‌ڵام بۆ کۆمه‌ڵگه‌یه‌کی گه‌وره، هێشتا قه‌باره‌یه‌کی هه‌ڵاوساوی له‌م جۆره هه‌یه
01:03
There were quite many people infected in the United States.
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ژماره‌یه‌کی زۆر خه‌ڵک توش بوو له ئه‌مه‌ریکا
01:06
And, up there, you see Uganda.
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له‌به‌شی سه‌ره‌ره‌وه، ئۆگه‌ندا ده‌بینن
01:08
They had almost five percent infected,
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نزیکه‌ی (%٥) یان توش بوو
01:11
and quite a big bubble in spite of being a small country, then.
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له‌گه‌ڵ ئه‌وه‌ی که وڵاتێکی بچوکه، هه‌ڵاوسانه‌که زۆره
01:14
And they were probably the most infected country in the world.
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له‌وانه‌یه ئه‌وان زۆرترین توش بوانیان هه‌بووبێت له جیهاندا
01:19
Now, what has happened?
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چی ڕویدا؟
01:21
Now you have understood the graph
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ئێوه له‌و هێڵکارییه تێگه‌یشتوون
01:23
and now, in the next 60 seconds,
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ئێستا له (٦٠) چرکه‌ی داهاتوودا
01:26
we will play the HIV epidemic in the world.
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باسی بڵاوبونه‌وه‌ی نه‌خۆشی ئایدز ده‌که‌ین له‌جیهاندا
01:29
But first, I have a new invention here.
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به‌ڵام، سه‌ره‌تا داهێنراوێکی تازه‌م پێیه لێره
01:34
(Laughter)
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پێکه‌نین
01:39
I have solidified the beam of the laser pointer.
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من تیشکی له‌یزه‌ره‌که‌م پته‌و کردووه
01:43
(Laughter)
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پێه‌نین
01:46
(Applause)
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چه‌پڵه لێدان
01:52
So, ready, steady, go!
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که‌واته، ئاماده‌ی، جێگیربه، بڕۆ
01:56
First, we have the fast rise in Uganda and Zimbabwe.
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یه‌که‌م، به‌رزبونه‌وه‌یه‌کی خێرا له ئۆگه‌ندا و زیمبابۆی دا هه‌یه
02:00
They went upwards like this.
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به‌م شێوه‌یه به‌رزبوونه‌ته‌وه
02:02
In Asia, the first country to be heavily infected was Thailand --
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له ئاسیا، یه‌که‌م وڵات که به‌قورسی تووش بوو، تایله‌ند بوو
02:06
they reached one to two percent.
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ئه‌وان گه‌یشتنه یه‌ک بۆ دوو له سه‌دا
02:08
Then, Uganda started to turn back,
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دوایی. ئۆگه‌ندا ده‌ستی کرد به کشانه‌وه
02:10
whereas Zimbabwe skyrocketed,
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به‌ڵام زیمبابۆی به‌ره‌و هه‌ڵکشان ڕۆیشت
02:12
and some years later South Africa had a terrible rise of HIV frequency.
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وه دوای چه‌ند ساڵێک باشوری ئه‌فه‌ریقا به‌رزبونه‌وه‌یه‌کی زۆری (شێرپه‌نجه )ی به‌خۆوه بینی
02:16
Look, India got many infected,
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ته‌ماشاکه، له‌هیندستان ژماره‌یه‌کی زۆر توش بوون
02:18
but had a low level.
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به‌ڵام ئاستێکی نزمی هه‌بوو
02:20
And almost the same happens here.
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ئه‌وه به‌هه‌مان شێوه لێره ڕویدا
02:22
See, Uganda coming down, Zimbabwe coming down,
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ده‌بینی ئۆگه‌ندا به‌ره‌و خواره‌وه دیت، زیمبابۆی به‌ره‌و خواره‌وه دێت
02:25
Russia went to one percent.
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ڕوسیا به‌ره‌و یه‌ک له‌سه‌دا ڕۆیشت
02:27
In the last two to three years,
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له دوو بۆ سێ ساڵی ڕابردوودا
02:30
we have reached a steady state of HIV epidemic in the world.
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ئێمه گه‌یشتوینه‌ته بڵاوبونه‌وه‌یه‌کی هاوسه‌نگی ئایدز له‌جیهاندا
02:34
25 years it took.
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ئه‌وه (٢٥) ساڵی خایاند
02:37
But, steady state doesn't mean that things are getting better,
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به‌ڵام، حاڵه‌تی هاوسه‌نگی ئه‌وه ناگه‌یه‌نێت شته‌کان به‌ره‌و باشتر ده‌ڕۆن
02:40
it's just that they have stopped getting worse.
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ته‌نها ئه‌وه‌یه که شته‌کان به‌ره‌و خراپتر ڕۆشتن وه‌ستاون
02:43
And it has -- the steady state is, more or less,
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هاوسه‌نگییه‌کی که‌م یان زۆری هه‌یه
02:47
one percent of the adult world population is HIV-infected.
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لە (%١)ی دانیشتوانی گه‌نجی جیهان توشی ئایدز بوون
02:51
It means 30 to 40 million people,
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که ده‌کاته (٣٠ بۆ ٤٠) ملیۆن خه‌ڵک
02:54
the whole of California -- every person,
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هه‌موو کالیفۆڕنیا -- هه‌رکه‌سێک
02:56
that's more or less what we have today in the world.
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ئه‌وه که‌متر یان زیاتره که ئه‌مڕۆ له‌جیهاندا هه‌یه
02:58
Now, let me make a fast replay of Botswana.
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ڕێگه‌م بده‌ن به‌خێرایی بگه‌ڕێمه‌وه بۆ باسی بۆتسوانا
03:03
Botswana -- upper middle-income country in southern Africa,
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بۆتسوانا -- وڵاتێکی داهات مام ناوه‌ند له‌به‌شی سه‌ره‌وه‌ی ئه‌فه‌ریقا
03:07
democratic government, good economy,
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حکومه‌تێکی دیموکرات و ئابوری یه‌کی باش
03:10
and this is what happened there.
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وه ئه‌م بوو که له‌وێ ڕویدا
03:12
They started low, they skyrocketed,
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به‌ڕێژه‌یه‌کی نزم ده‌ستیان پێکرد، ئه‌وان زۆر به‌رزبوونه‌وه
03:14
they peaked up there in 2003,
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ئه‌وان گه‌یشتنه لوتکه له‌ساڵی ٢٠٠٣
03:17
and now they are down.
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وه ئێستا هاتۆته خوار له‌و ئاسته‌دا
03:19
But they are falling only slowly,
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به‌ڵام، ئه‌وان به‌هێواشی به‌ره‌و ڕوخان ده‌ڕۆن
03:21
because in Botswana, with good economy and governance,
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چونکه له بۆتسوانا، له‌گه‌ڵ حکومه‌تێک و ئابورییه‌کی باشدا
03:23
they can manage to treat people.
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ئه‌وان ده‌توانن خۆیان له‌گه‌ڵ خه‌ڵک بگونجینن
03:26
And if people who are infected are treated, they don't die of AIDS.
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ئه‌گه‌ر ئه‌و خه‌ڵکانه‌ی که توش بوون چاره‌سه‌ر بکرێن، ئه‌وان به‌هۆی ئایدزه‌وه نامرن
03:29
These percentages won't come down
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ئه‌م ڕێژانه نایه‌نه خواره‌وه
03:32
because people can survive 10 to 20 years.
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چونکه خه‌ڵك ده‌توانێت بژی(١٠) بۆ (٢٠) ساڵ
03:34
So there's some problem with these metrics now.
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ئێستا چه‌ند کێشه‌یه‌ک هه‌یه له ئه‌م شێوازی مه‌تری یه
03:37
But the poorer countries in Africa, the low-income countries down here,
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به‌ڵام وڵاته زۆر هه‌ژاره‌کانی ئه‌فه‌ریقا، وڵاته داهات که‌مه‌کانی به‌شی خواره‌وه
03:41
there the rates fall faster, of the percentage infected,
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تێکڕاکانی ئه‌وانه‌ی که توش بوون به‌خێرایی دێنه خواره‌وه
03:47
because people still die.
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چونکه هێشتا خه‌ڵک هه‌ر ده‌مرن
03:49
In spite of PEPFAR, the generous PEPFAR,
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سه‌ره‌ڕای چاره‌سه‌ری دوور
03:52
all people are not reached by treatment,
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هه‌موو خه‌ڵک چاره‌سه‌ریان وه‌رنه‌گرتووه
03:55
and of those who are reached by treatment in the poor countries,
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وه له‌ناو ئه‌وانه‌ی چاره‌سه‌ریان وه‌رگرتووه له وڵاتانی هه‌ژاردا
03:57
only 60 percent are left on treatment after two years.
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دوای دوو ساڵ ته‌نها (%٦٠)یان له‌سه‌ر چاره‌سه‌ر ماونه‌ته‌وه
04:00
It's not realistic with lifelong treatment
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شتێکی ڕاسته‌قینه خوازانه نیه بۆ وه‌رگرتنی چاره‌سه‌ره به‌درێژایی ژیان
04:04
for everyone in the poorest countries.
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بۆ هه‌موو که‌سێک له‌وڵاته زۆر هه‌ژاره‌کان
04:06
But it's very good that what is done is being done.
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به‌ڵام، ئه‌وه زۆر باشه که ئه‌وه‌ی کراوه بکرێت
04:09
But focus now is back on prevention.
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به‌ڵام، گرنگیه‌که گه‌ڕاوه‌ته‌وه بۆ قه‌ده‌غه‌کردن
04:13
It is only by stopping the transmission
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ته‌نها له‌ڕێگه‌ی وه‌ستانی گواستنه‌وه‌یه
04:16
that the world will be able to deal with it.
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که جیهان ده‌توانێت خۆی له‌گه‌ڵدا بگونجێنێت
04:19
Drugs is too costly -- had we had the vaccine,
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ده‌رمان زۆر گرانه --ئێمه (ڤاکسین) مان هه‌یه
04:21
or when we will get the vaccine, that's something more effective --
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یان کاتێک (ڤاکسینه‌که ) چاره‌سه‌ره‌که وه‌رده‌گرین، ئه‌وه شتێکی کاریگه‌رتره
04:24
but the drugs are very costly for the poor.
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به‌ڵام ده‌رمان زۆر گرانه بۆ که‌سانی هه‌ژار
04:26
Not the drug in itself, but the treatment
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نه‌ک ته‌نها ده‌رمانه‌که خۆی، به‌ڵکو چاره‌سه‌ر کردنه‌که
04:28
and the care which is needed around it.
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وه ئه‌و چاودێرییه‌ی که پێویسته هه‌بێت
04:32
So, when we look at the pattern,
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له‌به‌رئه‌وه، کاتێک ته‌ماشای شێوازه‌که ده‌که‌ین
04:35
one thing comes out very clearly:
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زۆر به‌ڕونی شتێک ده‌رده‌که‌وێت
04:37
you see the blue bubbles
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ئیوه بڵقی شین ده‌بینن
04:39
and people say HIV is very high in Africa.
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خه‌ڵک ده‌ڵێت ئایدز له ئه‌فوریقا زۆره
04:41
I would say, HIV is very different in Africa.
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من ده‌ڵێم، ئایدز له ئه‌فه‌ریقا زۆر جیاوازه
04:44
You'll find the highest HIV rate in the world
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تۆ به‌رزترین ئاستی ئایدز له‌جیهاندا دەدۆزیتەوە
04:48
in African countries,
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له وڵاتانی ئه‌فه‌ریقا ده‌یبینی
04:50
and yet you'll find Senegal, down here --
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وه هێشتا ده‌یبینن سه‌نیگال له‌به‌شی خواره‌وه‌یە
04:52
the same rate as United States.
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که هه‌مان ڕێژه‌ی ئه‌مه‌ریکای هه‌یه
04:54
And you'll find Madagascar,
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وه مه‌ده‌شقه ده‌بینن
04:56
and you'll find a lot of African countries
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زۆربه‌ی وڵاتانی ئه‌فه‌ریقا ده‌بینن
04:58
about as low as the rest of the world.
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که‌هه‌مان ئاستی نزمی جیهانیان هه‌یه
05:01
It's this terrible simplification that there's one Africa
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ئه‌وه لێکدانه‌وه‌یه‌کی باش نیه که یه‌ک ئه‌فه‌ریقا هه‌یه
05:05
and things go on in one way in Africa.
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شته‌کان له ئه‌فه‌ریقا به‌یه‌ک ئاڕاسته‌دا ده‌ڕۆن
05:07
We have to stop that.
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پێویسته ئه‌وه ڕاگرین
05:09
It's not respectful, and it's not very clever
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ئه‌وه بێ ڕێزییه و زیره‌کانه نییه
05:12
to think that way.
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به‌و شێوه‌یه بیربکه‌ینه‌وه
05:14
(Applause)
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چه‌پڵه لێدان
05:18
I had the fortune to live and work for a time in the United States.
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به‌ختێکی باشم هه‌بوو که له‌ئه‌مه‌ریکا بژیم و کاربکه‌م
05:21
I found out that Salt Lake City and San Francisco were different.
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بۆم ده‌رکه‌وت که شاره‌ی (سالتی له‌یک) و شاری (سان فرانسیسکۆ) که جیاوازن
05:25
(Laughter)
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پیکه‌نین
05:27
And so it is in Africa -- it's a lot of difference.
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که‌واته ئه‌وه له ئه‌فه‌ریقا زۆر جیاوازه
05:30
So, why is it so high? Is it war?
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بۆچی ئه‌وه‌نده به‌رزه؟ ئایه ئه‌وه شاره؟
05:32
No, it's not. Look here.
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نه‌خێر، ته‌ماشای ئێره بکه
05:34
War-torn Congo is down there -- two, three, four percent.
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شه‌ڕ کۆنگۆی له‌به‌شی خواره‌وه بۆ (%٢،٣،٤)به‌ش کردووه
05:37
And this is peaceful Zambia, neighboring country -- 15 percent.
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ئه‌مە زامبیای ئاشتی خوازه دراوسێی ئه‌وه، لە (%١٥)یه
05:41
And there's good studies of the refugees coming out of Congo --
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توێژینه‌وه‌یه‌کی باش ده‌رده‌چێت سه‌باره‌ت به ئاواره‌کانی کۆنگۆ
05:44
they have two, three percent infected,
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ئه‌وان به‌ڕێژه‌ی (%٢،٣) توش بوون
05:46
and peaceful Zambia -- much higher.
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وه له زامبیای ئاشتی خواز زۆر زیاتره
05:48
There are now studies clearly showing
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ئێستا توێژینه‌وه‌کان زۆر به‌ڕونی ئه‌وه نیشان ده‌ده‌ن
05:50
that the wars are terrible, that rapes are terrible,
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که شاره‌کان سامناکن، ئه‌و زه‌وت کردنانه سامناکن
05:53
but this is not the driving force for the high levels in Africa.
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به‌ڵام، ئه‌مانه له ئه‌فه‌ریقا به‌ره‌و ئاستێکی به‌رز ناڕۆن
05:56
So, is it poverty?
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که‌واته هه‌ژارییه؟
05:58
Well if you look at the macro level,
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باشه، ئه‌گه‌ر ته‌ماشای ئاستی به‌رز بکه‌ی
06:00
it seems more money, more HIV.
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له پاره‌ی زیاتر ده‌چێت، ئایدزی زیاتر
06:02
But that's very simplistic,
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به‌ڵام، ئه‌وه زۆر ئاسانه
06:05
so let's go down and look at Tanzania.
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با به‌ره‌و خواره‌وه بچین و ته‌ماشای تانزانیا بکه‌ین
06:07
I will split Tanzania in five income groups,
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تانزانیا ده‌که‌م به پێنج داهاتی گرووپه‌وه
06:11
from the highest income to the lowest income,
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له‌به‌رزترین داهاته‌وه بۆ نزمترین داهات
06:13
and here we go.
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وه ئه‌وه‌تا
06:15
The ones with the highest income, the better off -- I wouldn't say rich --
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ئه‌وانه‌ی که داهاتیان به‌رزه، ده‌ڵێم ده‌وڵه‌مه‌نده‌کان
06:18
they have higher HIV.
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ڕێژه‌یه‌کی به‌رزی ئایدزیان هه‌یه
06:20
The difference goes from 11 percent down to four percent,
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جیاوازییه‌که‌ی (%١١)ه وه بۆ (%٤) داده‌به‌زێت
06:23
and it is even bigger among women.
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ڕێژه‌که له‌ناو ئافره‌ته‌کاندا زیاد ده‌بێت
06:25
There's a lot of things that we thought, that now, good research,
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شتی زۆر هه‌یه که‌ئێمه بیرمان لێکردۆته‌وه که توێژینه‌وه‌ی باش
06:29
done by African institutions and researchers
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ئه‌نجام دراوه له‌لایەن ده‌زگاکان و توێژه‌ره‌وه ئه‌فه‌ریقییه‌کان
06:32
together with the international researchers, show that that's not the case.
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پێکه‌وه له‌گه‌ڵ توێژه‌ره‌وه نێوده‌وڵه‌تییه‌کان، ئه‌وه نیشان ده‌دات که بابه‌ته‌که ئه‌وه نییه
06:35
So, this is the difference within Tanzania.
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ئه‌مه جیاوازییه‌که له‌نێوان تانزانییا دا
06:37
And, I can't avoid showing Kenya.
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ناتوانم نیشاندانی کینیا پشت گوێ بخه‌م
06:39
Look here at Kenya.
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ته‌ماشای کینیا بکه
06:41
I've split Kenya in its provinces.
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کینیام بۆ هه‌رێمه‌کانی دابه‌ش کردووه
06:43
Here it goes.
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به‌م شێوه‌یه ده‌ڕوات
06:45
See the difference within one African country --
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ته‌ماشای جیاوازی له‌یه‌ک وڵاتی ئه‌فه‌ریقا بکه
06:48
it goes from very low level to very high level,
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له‌ئاستێکی زۆر نزمه‌وه ده‌ڕوات بۆ ئاستێکی به‌رز
06:51
and most of the provinces in Kenya is quite modest.
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وه زۆربه‌ی هه‌رێمه‌کانی کینیا بێ هێزن
06:54
So, what is it then?
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که دوای چی ده‌بێت؟
06:56
Why do we see this extremely high levels in some countries?
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بۆچی ئه‌و ئاسته به‌رزانه له‌چه‌ند وڵاتێک وا ده‌بینن؟
07:00
Well, it is more common with multiple partners,
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چه‌ند شێوازێکی هاوبه‌ش هه‌یه
07:03
there is less condom use,
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به‌کارهێنانی (کۆندۆم) که‌مه
07:06
and there is age-disparate sex --
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وه جیاوازی ته‌مه‌نی ڕه‌گه‌زه‌کان
07:09
that is, older men tend to have sex with younger women.
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ئه‌وه‌تا، پیاوێکی به‌ته‌مه‌ن ده‌یه‌وێت سێکس له‌گه‌ڵ ئافره‌تێکی گه‌نجتر بکات
07:12
We see higher rates in younger women than younger men
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ڕێژه‌یه‌کی به‌رز له ئافره‌تان گه‌نج ده‌بینن زیاتر له پیاوان
07:15
in many of these highly affected countries.
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له‌زۆربه‌ی وڵاتانی توش بوودا
07:17
But where are they situated?
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به‌ڵام ئه‌مانه ده‌که‌وێته کوێوه؟
07:19
I will swap the bubbles to a map.
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من بڵقه‌کان ده‌گۆڕم بۆ نه‌خشه‌یه‌ک
07:21
Look, the highly infected are four percent of all population
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ته‌ماشا بکه، ڕێژه‌ی به‌ندی توش بووان لە (%٤)ی هه‌موو دانیشتوانه
07:25
and they hold 50 percent of the HIV-infected.
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وە له (%٥٠)یان نه‌خۆشی ئایدزیان هه‌ڵگرتووه
07:28
HIV exists all over the world.
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ئایدز له‌هه‌موو جیهاندا هه‌یه
07:31
Look, you have bubbles all over the world here.
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ته‌ماشابکه، تۆ لێره بڵقت له‌هه‌موو جیهاندا هه‌یه
07:33
Brazil has many HIV-infected.
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به‌ڕازیل ڕێژه‌یه‌کی زۆر توشبوانی ئایدزی هه‌یه
07:36
Arab countries not so much, but Iran is quite high.
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له وڵاتانی عه‌ره‌بی ڕێژه‌یه‌کی زۆر نییه، به‌ڵام ئێران تاڕاده‌یه‌ک به‌رزه
07:39
They have heroin addiction and also prostitution in Iran.
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ئالودەبوو بە هیرۆین هه‌یه و هه‌روه‌ها (سۆزانی)(داوێن پیس) یشیان هه‌یه
07:43
India has many because they are many.
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هندستان زۆرێک له‌وانه‌ی هه‌یه چونکه دانیشتوانیان زۆره
07:45
Southeast Asia, and so on.
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باشوری ڕۆژهه‌ڵاتی ئاسیا و.دواتریش
07:47
But, there is one part of Africa --
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به‌ڵام به‌شێک له ئه‌فه‌ریقا هه‌یه
07:49
and the difficult thing is, at the same time,
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له‌هه‌مان کاتدا، شته قورسه‌که ئه‌وه‌یه
07:51
not to make a uniform statement about Africa,
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ڕونکردنه‌وه‌ی هاوبه‌ش ده‌رده‌که‌ن له‌باره‌ی ئه‌فه‌ریقا
07:55
not to come to simple ideas of why it is like this, on one hand.
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له‌لایه‌که‌وه، نه‌گه‌یته بڕیاری ئاسان که بۆچی ئه‌وشته به‌و شێوه‌یه‌یه
07:59
On the other hand, try to say that this is not the case,
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له‌لایه‌کی تره‌وه، هه‌وڵ بده ئه‌وه بڵێ که ئه‌وه بابه‌ته‌که نییه
08:02
because there is a scientific consensus about this pattern now.
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چه‌ونکه ئێستا یه‌کگرییه‌کی زانستی هاوبه‌ش هه‌یه له‌باره‌ی ئه‌و شێوازه‌وه
08:06
UNAIDS have done good data available, finally,
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له‌کۆتایدا (بەرنامەی نەتەوە یەکگرتوەکان بۆ ئایدز) چه‌ند داتایه‌کی خستۆته به‌رده‌ست
08:09
about the spread of HIV.
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له‌باره‌ی بڵاوبونه‌وه‌ی ئایدز
08:12
It could be concurrency.
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له‌وانه‌یه ئه‌وه ڕێکه‌وتن بێت
08:15
It could be some virus types.
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له‌وانه‌یه چه‌ند جۆرێک ڤایرۆس بێت
08:18
It could be that there is other things
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له‌وانه‌یه ئه‌وه‌بێت که شتی تر هه‌یه
08:22
which makes transmission occur in a higher frequency.
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که گواستنه‌وه‌که دروست ده‌کات به‌ڕێژه‌یه‌کی به‌رز
08:25
After all, if you are completely healthy and you have heterosexual sex,
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سه‌ره‌ڕای ئه‌وانه، ئه‌گه‌ر تۆ به‌ته‌واوی ته‌ندروست بیت و سێکس ده‌که‌ی له‌گه‌ڵ ڕه‌گه‌زی جیاوزدا
08:28
the risk of infection in one intercourse is one in 1,000.
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مه‌ترسی توش بونی له‌یه‌ک حاڵه‌ت دا یه‌ک له (١٠٠)ه
08:33
Don't jump to conclusions now on how to
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ئێستا خۆت هه‌ڵمه‌ده بۆ کۆتایی چۆن
08:35
behave tonight and so on.
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ئه‌م شه‌و هه‌ڵسوکه‌وت ده‌که‌ین و ئه‌و شتانه
08:37
(Laughter)
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پێکه‌نین
08:39
But -- and if you are in an unfavorable situation,
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به‌ڵام - -ئه‌گه‌ر تۆ له‌دۆخێکی باشدا نیت
08:42
more sexually transmitted diseases, it can be one in 100.
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زیاتر گواستنه‌وه‌ی نه‌خۆشییه ڕه‌گه‌زییه‌کان له‌وانه‌یه یه‌ک له (١٠٠) بێت
08:45
But what we think is that it could be concurrency.
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به‌ڵام، ئه‌وه‌ی که ئێمه بیری لێده‌که‌ینه‌وه که له‌وانه‌یه ڕێکه‌وتن بێت
08:48
And what is concurrency?
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ڕێکه‌وتنی چی؟
08:50
In Sweden, we have no concurrency.
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له سوید، ڕێکه‌وتنمان نییه
08:52
We have serial monogamy.
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زنجیره‌یه‌ک ژن هێنانی یه‌ک جاریمان هه‌یه
08:54
Vodka, New Year's Eve -- new partner for the spring.
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ڤۆدگا، له‌ئێواره‌ی سه‌ری ساڵدا- - هاوڕێیه‌کی نوێ بۆ به‌هار
08:56
Vodka, Midsummer's Eve -- new partner for the fall.
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ڤۆدگا، ئێوارەی ناوه‌ڕاستی هاوین -- هاوڕێیه‌کی تازه بۆ پایز
08:58
Vodka -- and it goes on like this, you know?
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ڤۆدگا، به‌م شێوه‌یه ده‌ڕوات ده‌زانی؟
09:00
And you collect a big number of exes.
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تۆ ژماره‌یه‌کی زۆر وشه‌ی (له‌مه‌وپێش) کۆده‌که‌یته‌وه
09:03
And we have a terrible chlamydia epidemic --
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ئێمه نه‌خۆشییه‌کی داپۆشراوی سامناکمان هه‌یه
09:05
terrible chlamydia epidemic which sticks around for many years.
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نه‌خۆشییه‌کی داپۆشراوی سامناک که بۆ چه‌ندین ساڵ له ده‌وروبه‌رماندا
09:09
HIV has a peak three to six weeks after infection
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ئایدز ده‌گاته لوتکه دوای سێ بۆ شه‌ش هه‌فته له‌توش بوون
09:12
and therefore, having more than one partner in the same month
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له‌گه‌ل ئه‌وه‌ی، ده‌ست که‌وتنی زیاتر له هاوڕێیه‌ک له‌یه‌ک مانگ دا
09:15
is much more dangerous for HIV than others.
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زۆر مه‌ترسیداره بۆ ئایدز زیاتر له شته‌کانی تر
09:18
Probably, it's a combination of this.
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له‌وانه‌یه، پێکه‌وه به‌ستنی ئه‌وه بێت
09:20
And what makes me so happy is that we are moving now
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ئێستا ئه‌وه‌ی که‌من دڵخۆش ده‌کات ئه‌وه‌یه که ئێمه به‌ره‌و
09:23
towards fact when we look at this.
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ڕاستی ده‌ڕۆین کاتێک ته‌ماشای ئه‌مه ده‌که‌ین
09:25
You can get this chart, free.
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ده‌توانی به‌بێ به‌رامبه‌ر ئه‌م هێڵکارییه‌ت ده‌ست بکه‌وێ
09:27
We have uploaded UNAIDS data on the Gapminder site.
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ئێمه داتاکانی(بەرنامەی نەتەوە یەکگرتوەکان بۆ ئایدز)مان له‌سایتی (گاپ ماینده‌ر)ه‌وه وه‌رگرتووه
09:30
And we hope that when we act on global problems in the future
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هیوامان وایه کاتێک هه‌ڵوێست له‌سه‌ر کێشه جیهانیه‌کان ده‌که‌ین له‌داهاتوودا
09:34
we will not only have the heart,
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ته‌نها دڵمان نه‌بێت
09:37
we will not only have the money,
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ته‌نها په‌ره‌مان نه‌بێت
09:39
but we will also use the brain.
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به‌ڵکو مێشکمان به‌کار بهێنیین
09:42
Thank you very much.
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زۆر سوپاس
09:44
(Applause)
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چه‌پڵه لێدان
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionaryIn Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
Why you should listen
Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.
What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.
Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)
Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.
Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com