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TED2009

Hans Rosling: Insights on HIV, in stunning data visuals

Hans Rosling: HIV – nova dejstva in osupljiv prikaz podatkov

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Hans Rosling razkrije prikaz novih podatkov, ki razpletejo zapletene dejavnike tveganja ene izmed najbolj smrtonosnih (in najbolj narobe razumljene) bolezni na svetu: HIV. Trdi, da je preprečevanje prenosa – in ne zdravljenje – ključ za ustavitev epidemije.

- Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio

(Applause)
(Aplavz)
00:12
AIDS was discovered 1981; the virus, 1983.
AIDS je bil odkrit leta 1981;
virus leta 1983.
00:18
These Gapminder bubbles show you
Ti Gapminderjevi mehurčki prikazujejo,
00:23
how the spread of the virus was in 1983 in the world,
kako je bil virus leta 1983
razširjen po svetu,
00:25
or how we estimate that it was.
oziroma našo oceno razširjenosti.
00:29
What we are showing here is --
Kar vam kažemo tu, je –
00:31
on this axis here, I'm showing percent of infected adults.
na tej osi tu vam kažem odstotek
okuženih odraslih.
00:33
And on this axis, I'm showing dollars per person in income.
In na tej osi tu vam kažem zaslužek
v dolarjih po osebi.
00:40
And the size of these bubbles, the size of the bubbles here,
In velikost teh mehurčkov,
velikost mehurčkov tu,
00:45
that shows how many are infected in each country,
nam kaže, koliko je okuženih
v vsaki državi,
00:49
and the color is the continent.
in barva pove kontinent.
00:52
Now, you can see United States, in 1983,
Lahko vidite, da je ZDA leta 1983
00:54
had a very low percentage infected,
imela zelo nizek odstotek okuženih,
00:56
but due to the big population, still a sizable bubble.
ampak zaradi velikega števila prebivalcev,
je to kar velik mehurček.
00:59
There were quite many people infected in the United States.
Kar veliko ljudi je bilo okuženih v ZDA.
01:03
And, up there, you see Uganda.
In – tu zgoraj – vidite Ugando.
01:06
They had almost five percent infected,
Imeli so skoraj pet odstotkov okuženih
01:08
and quite a big bubble in spite of being a small country, then.
in kar velik mehurček,
čeprav so bili takrat majhna država.
01:11
And they were probably the most infected country in the world.
In najbrž so bili
najbolj okužena država na svetu.
01:14
Now, what has happened?
Torej, kaj se je zgodilo?
01:19
Now you have understood the graph
Sedaj, ko razumete graf,
01:21
and now, in the next 60 seconds,
in zdaj, v naslednjih 60-ih sekundah,
01:23
we will play the HIV epidemic in the world.
bomo zaigrali HIV epidemijo v svetu.
01:26
But first, I have a new invention here.
Ampak najprej imam tu nov izum.
01:29
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
01:34
I have solidified the beam of the laser pointer.
Strdil sem žarek laserskega kazalca.
01:39
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
01:43
(Applause)
(Aplavz)
01:46
So, ready, steady, go!
Torej: pripravljeni, pozor, gremo!
01:52
First, we have the fast rise in Uganda and Zimbabwe.
Najprej imamo hitro rast
v Ugandi in Zimbabveju.
01:56
They went upwards like this.
Dvigovala sta se takole.
02:00
In Asia, the first country to be heavily infected was Thailand --
V Aziji je bila prva
zelo okužena država Tajska –
02:02
they reached one to two percent.
dosegli so en do dva procenta.
02:06
Then, Uganda started to turn back,
Potem se je Uganda začela vračati,
02:08
whereas Zimbabwe skyrocketed,
medtem ko je Zimbabve pognalo v nebo
02:10
and some years later South Africa had a terrible rise of HIV frequency.
in nekaj let kasneje je imela Južna Afrika
grozen porast pogostosti HIV-a.
02:12
Look, India got many infected,
Poglejte – Indija je imela mnogo okuženih,
02:16
but had a low level.
toda nizko stopnjo okuženosti.
02:18
And almost the same happens here.
In skoraj enako se zgodi tu.
02:20
See, Uganda coming down, Zimbabwe coming down,
Vidite, Uganda se spušča, Zimbabve
se spušča,
02:22
Russia went to one percent.
Rusija je šla do enega procenta.
02:25
In the last two to three years,
V zadnjih dveh do treh letih
02:27
we have reached a steady state of HIV epidemic in the world.
smo dosegli stabilno stanje
epidemije HIV v svetu.
02:30
25 years it took.
25 let je bilo potrebnih.
02:34
But, steady state doesn't mean that things are getting better,
Ampak stabilno stanje ne pomeni,
da se stvari izboljšujejo,
02:37
it's just that they have stopped getting worse.
pomeni samo to, da se ne slabšajo več.
02:40
And it has -- the steady state is, more or less,
In je – stabilno stanje je bolj ali manj
02:43
one percent of the adult world population is HIV-infected.
en odstotek odrasle svetovne populacije
je zdaj okužene z virusom HIV.
02:47
It means 30 to 40 million people,
To pomeni 30 do 40 milijonov ljudi,
02:51
the whole of California -- every person,
celotna Kalifornija – vsak posameznik,
02:54
that's more or less what we have today in the world.
to je bolj ali manj to,
kar imamo danes v svetu.
02:56
Now, let me make a fast replay of Botswana.
Naj vam sedaj še enkrat
na hitro odvrtim Bocvano.
02:58
Botswana -- upper middle-income country in southern Africa,
Bocvana – država v južni Afriki
s prihodki v zgornji sredini,
03:03
democratic government, good economy,
z demokratično vlado,
dobrim gospodarstvom –
03:07
and this is what happened there.
in tam se je zgodilo tole.
03:10
They started low, they skyrocketed,
Začeli so nizko, poleteli v nebo
03:12
they peaked up there in 2003,
in dosegli vrh tam zgoraj v letu 2003
03:14
and now they are down.
in sedaj se spuščajo.
03:17
But they are falling only slowly,
Ampak padajo le počasi,
03:19
because in Botswana, with good economy and governance,
ker si v Bocvani,
z dobrim gospodarstvom in vodenjem,
03:21
they can manage to treat people.
lahko privoščijo zdraviti ljudi.
03:23
And if people who are infected are treated, they don't die of AIDS.
In če zdravimo ljudi, ki so okuženi,
ne umrejo zaradi AIDS-a.
03:26
These percentages won't come down
Ti procenti se ne bodo znižali,
03:29
because people can survive 10 to 20 years.
ker lahko ljudje preživijo 10 do 20 let.
03:32
So there's some problem with these metrics now.
Tako da je še nekaj težav s temi številkami.
03:34
But the poorer countries in Africa, the low-income countries down here,
Ampak v revnejših državah v Afriki,
državah z nizkimi dohodki tu spodaj,
03:37
there the rates fall faster, of the percentage infected,
tam odstotki okuženih padajo hitreje,
03:41
because people still die.
zato ker ljudje še vedno umirajo.
03:47
In spite of PEPFAR, the generous PEPFAR,
Kljub PEPFAR-ju, radodarnemu PEPFAR-ju,
03:49
all people are not reached by treatment,
vseh ljudi zdravljenje ne doseže,
03:52
and of those who are reached by treatment in the poor countries,
in od tistih, ki jih zdravljenje
doseže v revnih državah,
03:55
only 60 percent are left on treatment after two years.
jih samo 60 odstotkov
ostane na zdravljenju po dveh letih.
03:57
It's not realistic with lifelong treatment
Doživljenjsko zdravljenje ni realistično
04:00
for everyone in the poorest countries.
za vse v najrevnejših državah.
04:04
But it's very good that what is done is being done.
Ampak je zelo dobro,
da se počne, kar se počne.
04:06
But focus now is back on prevention.
Ampak ponovno se moramo
osredotočiti na preventivo.
04:09
It is only by stopping the transmission
Samo s preprečevanjem prenašanja virusa
04:13
that the world will be able to deal with it.
se bo svet lahko spopadel s tem.
04:16
Drugs is too costly -- had we had the vaccine,
Zdravila so predraga – če bi imeli cepivo,
04:19
or when we will get the vaccine, that's something more effective --
ali ko bomo dobili cepivo,
bo to nekaj bolj učinkovitega –
04:21
but the drugs are very costly for the poor.
ampak zdravila so zelo draga za revne.
04:24
Not the drug in itself, but the treatment
Ne zdravilo samo, ampak zdravljenje
04:26
and the care which is needed around it.
in oskrba, ki je potrebna zraven.
04:28
So, when we look at the pattern,
Torej, ko si pogledamo vzorec,
04:32
one thing comes out very clearly:
ena stvar jasno izstopa:
04:35
you see the blue bubbles
vidite modre mehurčke
04:37
and people say HIV is very high in Africa.
in rečete, da je v Afriki zelo veliko HIV-a.
04:39
I would say, HIV is very different in Africa.
Jaz bi rekel, da je HIV v Afriki
zelo raznolik.
04:41
You'll find the highest HIV rate in the world
Najvišjo stopnjo HIV-a na svetu boste našli
04:44
in African countries,
v Afriških državah,
04:48
and yet you'll find Senegal, down here --
a vseeno boste našli Senegal tu spodaj –
04:50
the same rate as United States.
z enako stopnjo okuženosti kot v ZDA.
04:52
And you'll find Madagascar,
In našli boste Madagaskar
04:54
and you'll find a lot of African countries
in našli boste veliko Afriških držav,
04:56
about as low as the rest of the world.
ki so približno enako nizko
kot preostanek sveta.
04:58
It's this terrible simplification that there's one Africa
To je grozno poenostavljanje,
da je samo ena Afrika
05:01
and things go on in one way in Africa.
in da se stvari v Afriki
odvijajo na en način.
05:05
We have to stop that.
S tem moramo prenehati.
05:07
It's not respectful, and it's not very clever
Ni spoštljivo in ni preveč pametno
05:09
to think that way.
misliti na tak način.
05:12
(Applause)
(Aplavz)
05:14
I had the fortune to live and work for a time in the United States.
Imel sem srečo, da sem nekaj časa
živel in delal v ZDA.
05:18
I found out that Salt Lake City and San Francisco were different.
Ugotovil sem, da sta si Salt Lake City
in San Francisco različna.
05:21
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
05:25
And so it is in Africa -- it's a lot of difference.
In tako je tudi v Afriki –
obstaja veliko razlik.
05:27
So, why is it so high? Is it war?
Torej, zakaj je tako visoko? Zaradi vojne?
05:30
No, it's not. Look here.
Ne, ni. Poglejte sem.
05:32
War-torn Congo is down there -- two, three, four percent.
Od vojne opustošeni Kongo je tu spodaj –
dva, tri, štiri odstotke.
05:34
And this is peaceful Zambia, neighboring country -- 15 percent.
In to je miroljubna Zambija,
sosednja država – 15 odstotkov.
05:37
And there's good studies of the refugees coming out of Congo --
In obstajajo dobre študije o beguncih,
ki so prišli iz Konga –
05:41
they have two, three percent infected,
imajo dva, tri odstotke okuženih;
05:44
and peaceful Zambia -- much higher.
in miroljubna Zambija – veliko več.
05:46
There are now studies clearly showing
Sedaj imamo študije, ki jasno kažejo,
05:48
that the wars are terrible, that rapes are terrible,
da so vojne strašne,
da so posilstva strašna,
05:50
but this is not the driving force for the high levels in Africa.
ampak to ni glavni vzrok
za visoke stopnje okuženosti v Afriki.
05:53
So, is it poverty?
Torej, je to revščina?
05:56
Well if you look at the macro level,
No, če pogledamo na makro ravni,
05:58
it seems more money, more HIV.
se zdi, da več kot je denarja,
več je HIV-a.
06:00
But that's very simplistic,
Ampak to je zelo poenostavljeno,
06:02
so let's go down and look at Tanzania.
zato pojdimo dol in si poglejmo Tanzanijo.
06:05
I will split Tanzania in five income groups,
Razdelil bom Tanzanijo v pet skupin
glede na prihodek,
06:07
from the highest income to the lowest income,
od najvišjega prihodka do najnižjega prihodka,
06:11
and here we go.
in gremo.
06:13
The ones with the highest income, the better off -- I wouldn't say rich --
Tisti z najvišjim prihodkom, bolj premožni –
ne bi rekel bogati –
06:15
they have higher HIV.
imajo več HIV-a.
06:18
The difference goes from 11 percent down to four percent,
Razlika gre od 11-ih odstotkov dol
do štirih odstotkov,
06:20
and it is even bigger among women.
in je še večja med ženskami.
06:23
There's a lot of things that we thought, that now, good research,
Veliko je stvari, ki smo jih mislili,
za katere zdaj dobre raziskave,
06:25
done by African institutions and researchers
ki so jih naredile Afriške institucije
in raziskovalci
06:29
together with the international researchers, show that that's not the case.
skupaj z mednarodnimi raziskovalci,
kažejo, da ni tako.
06:32
So, this is the difference within Tanzania.
To so torej razlike v Tanzaniji.
06:35
And, I can't avoid showing Kenya.
In ne morem se izogniti Keniji.
06:37
Look here at Kenya.
Poglejte sem Kenijo.
06:39
I've split Kenya in its provinces.
Kenijo sem razdelil na njene province.
06:41
Here it goes.
Pa gremo.
06:43
See the difference within one African country --
Vidite razlike znotraj ene Afriške države –
06:45
it goes from very low level to very high level,
gre od zelo nizke stopnje
do zelo visoke stopnje
06:48
and most of the provinces in Kenya is quite modest.
in večina provinc v Keniji je kar skromna.
06:51
So, what is it then?
Torej, kaj je potem?
06:54
Why do we see this extremely high levels in some countries?
Zakaj vidimo te ekstremno visoke vrednosti
v nekaterih državah?
06:56
Well, it is more common with multiple partners,
No, bolj je pogosto pri večih partnerjih,
07:00
there is less condom use,
manj je uporabe kondoma,
07:03
and there is age-disparate sex --
in tu je še starostno različen seks –
07:06
that is, older men tend to have sex with younger women.
to je, ko imajo starejši moški
spolne odnose z mlajšimi ženskami.
07:09
We see higher rates in younger women than younger men
Vidimo višje stopnje okuženosti
pri mlajših ženskah kot pri mlajših moških
07:12
in many of these highly affected countries.
v veliko od teh držav z visoko stopnjo
okuženosti.
07:15
But where are they situated?
Ampak, kje se nahajajo?
07:17
I will swap the bubbles to a map.
Zamenjal bom mehurčke za zemljevid.
07:19
Look, the highly infected are four percent of all population
Poglejte, tiste z visoko okuženostjo
predstavljajo 4 odstotke celotne populacije
07:21
and they hold 50 percent of the HIV-infected.
in imajo 50 odstotkov okuženih s HIV-om.
07:25
HIV exists all over the world.
HIV obstaja po celem svetu.
07:28
Look, you have bubbles all over the world here.
Poglejte, imate mehurčke po celem svetu.
07:31
Brazil has many HIV-infected.
Brazilija ima mnogo okuženih s HIV-om.
07:33
Arab countries not so much, but Iran is quite high.
Arabske dežele ne tako zelo,
ampak Iran je precej visoko.
07:36
They have heroin addiction and also prostitution in Iran.
V Iranu imajo odvisnike od heroina
in tudi prostitucijo.
07:39
India has many because they are many.
Indija jih ima mnogo, ker jih je mnogo.
07:43
Southeast Asia, and so on.
Jugovzhodna Azija in tako naprej.
07:45
But, there is one part of Africa --
Ampak, tu je en del Afrike –
07:47
and the difficult thing is, at the same time,
in zelo težko je istočasno
07:49
not to make a uniform statement about Africa,
ne posploševati o Afriki,
07:51
not to come to simple ideas of why it is like this, on one hand.
ne priti po eni strani do preprostih idej,
zakaj je tako.
07:55
On the other hand, try to say that this is not the case,
Po drugi strani poskušajmo reči,
da temu ni tako,
07:59
because there is a scientific consensus about this pattern now.
ker sedaj obstaja
znanstveni konsenz o tem vzorcu.
08:02
UNAIDS have done good data available, finally,
UNAIDS ima sedaj končno
dostopne dobre podatke
08:06
about the spread of HIV.
o razširjenosti HIV-a.
08:09
It could be concurrency.
Lahko bi bila kriva sočasnost.
08:12
It could be some virus types.
Lahko bi bili nekateri tipi virusov.
08:15
It could be that there is other things
Lahko, da so tu druge stvari,
08:18
which makes transmission occur in a higher frequency.
zaradi katerih se prenos zgodi
z večjo frekvenco.
08:22
After all, if you are completely healthy and you have heterosexual sex,
Navsezadnje, če si popolnoma zdrav
in si heteroseksualec,
08:25
the risk of infection in one intercourse is one in 1,000.
je tveganje za okužbo pri enem
spolnem odnosu ena proti 1000.
08:28
Don't jump to conclusions now on how to
Ne sklepajte zdaj prehitro o tem,
08:33
behave tonight and so on.
kaj početi danes zvečer itd.
08:35
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
08:37
But -- and if you are in an unfavorable situation,
Ampak – če ste v neugodni situaciji,
08:39
more sexually transmitted diseases, it can be one in 100.
več spolno prenosljivih bolezni,
je verjetnost lahko 1 proti 100.
08:42
But what we think is that it could be concurrency.
Ampak mi mislimo,
da bi lahko bila sočasnost.
08:45
And what is concurrency?
In kaj je sočasnost?
08:48
In Sweden, we have no concurrency.
Na Švedskem nimamo sočasnosti.
08:50
We have serial monogamy.
Imamo serijsko monogamijo.
08:52
Vodka, New Year's Eve -- new partner for the spring.
Vodka, novo leto … nov partner za pomlad.
08:54
Vodka, Midsummer's Eve -- new partner for the fall.
Vodka, kresna noč … nov partner za jesen.
08:56
Vodka -- and it goes on like this, you know?
Vodka … in tako dalje, saj veste?
08:58
And you collect a big number of exes.
In nabereš veliko število
bivših partnerjev.
09:00
And we have a terrible chlamydia epidemic --
In imamo strašno epidemijo klamidije –
09:03
terrible chlamydia epidemic which sticks around for many years.
strašno epidemijo klamidije,
ki se drži mnogo let.
09:05
HIV has a peak three to six weeks after infection
HIV ima vrh tri do šest tednov
po infekciji
09:09
and therefore, having more than one partner in the same month
in zato je imeti več kot enega partnerja
v istem mesecu
09:12
is much more dangerous for HIV than others.
veliko bolj nevarno pri HIV-u
kot pri drugih.
09:15
Probably, it's a combination of this.
Najbrž gre za kombinacijo tega.
09:18
And what makes me so happy is that we are moving now
In kar me zelo veseli, je,
da se zdaj približujemo
09:20
towards fact when we look at this.
dejstvom, ko pogledamo tole.
09:23
You can get this chart, free.
Ta graf lahko dobite, zastonj.
09:25
We have uploaded UNAIDS data on the Gapminder site.
Naložili smo UNAIDS podatke
na Gapminderjevo stran.
09:27
And we hope that when we act on global problems in the future
In upamo, da ko bomo v prihodnosti
ukrepali glede globalnih problemov,
09:30
we will not only have the heart,
ne bomo imeli samo srca,
09:34
we will not only have the money,
ne bomo imeli samo denarja,
09:37
but we will also use the brain.
ampak bomo tudi uporabili možgane.
09:39
Thank you very much.
Najlepša hvala.
09:42
(Applause)
(Aplavz)
09:44
Translated by Nika Kotnik
Reviewed by Mojca Miklavec

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About the speaker:

Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.

Why you should listen

Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us will have their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his current work focuses on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (he points out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.

What sets Rosling apart isn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presents them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. By any logic, a presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.

Rosling's presentations are grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling takes this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.

Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)

Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.

As if all this weren't enough, the irrepressible Rosling is also an accomplished sword-swallower — a skill he demonstrated at TED2007.


More profile about the speaker
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com