TED2009
Hans Rosling: Insights on HIV, in stunning data visuals
Hanss Roslings par HIV: Jauni fakti un pārsteidzošas datu vizualizācijas
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Hanss Roslings atklāj jaunas datu vizualizācijas, kas atšķetina sarežģītos riska faktorus vienai no pasaules nāvējošākajām (un nesaprastākajām) slimībām: HIV. Viņš argumentē, ka galvenais ierocis epidēmijas apturēšanai ir slimības tālākas nodošanas novēršana, nevis ārstēšana ar zālēm.
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
(Applause)
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(Aplausi)
00:18
AIDS was discovered 1981; the virus, 1983.
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AIDS tika atklāts 1981. gadā, HIV vīruss — 1983. gadā.
00:23
These Gapminder bubbles show you
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Šie Gapminder burbuļi parāda
00:25
how the spread of the virus was in 1983 in the world,
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HIV vīrusa izplatību pasaulē 1983. gadā
00:29
or how we estimate that it was.
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jeb mūsu aplēses par to, kā tas notika.
00:31
What we are showing here is --
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Šeit redzams,
00:33
on this axis here, I'm showing percent of infected adults.
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uz šīs ass redzams inficēto pieaugušo procents.
00:40
And on this axis, I'm showing dollars per person in income.
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Uz šīs ass ir noradīti ienākumi ASV dolāros uz vienu cilvēku.
00:45
And the size of these bubbles, the size of the bubbles here,
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Šo burbuļu izmērs
00:49
that shows how many are infected in each country,
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parāda, cik daudz inficēto cilvēku ir katrā valstī,
00:52
and the color is the continent.
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un burbuļu krāsa norāda kontinentu.
00:54
Now, you can see United States, in 1983,
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Jūs redzat, ka ASV 1983. gadā
00:56
had a very low percentage infected,
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bija ļoti zems inficēto cilvēku procentuālais daudzums,
00:59
but due to the big population, still a sizable bubble.
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bet lielā iedzīvotāju skaita dēļ burbulis tomēr ir diezgan liels.
01:03
There were quite many people infected in the United States.
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ASV bija diezgan daudz inficēto cilvēku.
01:06
And, up there, you see Uganda.
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Tur augšā jūs redzat Ugandu.
01:08
They had almost five percent infected,
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Ugandā gandrīz 5% iedzīvotāju bija inficēti,
01:11
and quite a big bubble in spite of being a small country, then.
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burbulis ir diezgan liels par spīti, ka tā ir maza valsts.
01:14
And they were probably the most infected country in the world.
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Iespējams, Uganda bija viena no pasaules visinficētajām valstīm.
01:19
Now, what has happened?
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Kas ir noticis?
01:21
Now you have understood the graph
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Nu jūs esat sapratuši grafiku,
01:23
and now, in the next 60 seconds,
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un nākamajās 60 sekundēs
01:26
we will play the HIV epidemic in the world.
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mēs izspēlēsim pasaules HIV epidēmiju.
01:29
But first, I have a new invention here.
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Bet vispirms man jums ir jauns izgudrojums.
01:34
(Laughter)
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(Smiekli)
01:39
I have solidified the beam of the laser pointer.
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Es esmu padarījis taustāmu lāzera rādītāja staru.
01:43
(Laughter)
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(Smiekli)
01:46
(Applause)
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(Aplausi)
01:52
So, ready, steady, go!
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Tātad, uzmanību, gatavību, aiziet!
01:56
First, we have the fast rise in Uganda and Zimbabwe.
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Vispirms mums ir straujš kāpums Ugandā un Zimbabvē.
02:00
They went upwards like this.
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Tās virzījās šādi augšup.
02:02
In Asia, the first country to be heavily infected was Thailand --
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Āzijā pirmā nopietni inficētā valsts bija Taizeme,
02:06
they reached one to two percent.
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tā sasniedza 1 līdz 2% atzīmi.
02:08
Then, Uganda started to turn back,
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Tad Uganda sāka griezties atpakaļ,
02:10
whereas Zimbabwe skyrocketed,
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bet Zimbabve tikmēr strauji cēlās aizvien augstāk,
02:12
and some years later South Africa had a terrible rise of HIV frequency.
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un dažus gadus vēlāk Dienvidāfrikā bija šausminošs HIV biežuma pieaugums.
02:16
Look, India got many infected,
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Skat, Indijā ir daudz inficēto,
02:18
but had a low level.
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bet zems inficēto līmenis.
02:20
And almost the same happens here.
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Šeit notiek gandrīz tas pats.
02:22
See, Uganda coming down, Zimbabwe coming down,
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Redziet, Uganda nāk lejā, Zimbabve nāk lejā,
02:25
Russia went to one percent.
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Krievija sasniedz 1% atzīmi.
02:27
In the last two to three years,
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Pēdējo 2 līdz 3 gadu laikā
02:30
we have reached a steady state of HIV epidemic in the world.
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mēs esam sasnieguši stabilu HIV epidēmijas stāvokli visā pasaulē.
02:34
25 years it took.
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Tam bija nepieciešami 25 gadi.
02:37
But, steady state doesn't mean that things are getting better,
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Bet stabils stāvoklis nenozīmē, ka tas uzlabojas,
02:40
it's just that they have stopped getting worse.
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tas nozīme tikai to, ka stāvoklis vairs nepasliktinās.
02:43
And it has -- the steady state is, more or less,
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Vairāk vai mazāk, stabilais stāvoklis ir
02:47
one percent of the adult world population is HIV-infected.
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1% HIV inficēto pieaugušo populācija visā pasaulē.
02:51
It means 30 to 40 million people,
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Tas ir apmēram 30 līdz 40 miljoni cilvēku,
02:54
the whole of California -- every person,
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visa Kalifornija — katrs cilvēks,
02:56
that's more or less what we have today in the world.
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tāda ir aptuvenā aina, kas paveras šodien pasaulē.
02:58
Now, let me make a fast replay of Botswana.
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Nu ļaujiet man ātri patīt uz atpakaļ Botsvanu.
03:03
Botswana -- upper middle-income country in southern Africa,
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Botsvana — viena no augšējām vidējo ienākumu valstīm Dienvidāfrikā,
03:07
democratic government, good economy,
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demokrātiska valdība, laba ekonomika,
03:10
and this is what happened there.
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un, lūk, kas tur notika.
03:12
They started low, they skyrocketed,
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Tā sāka zemu, tad ļoti strauji cēlās
03:14
they peaked up there in 2003,
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un sasniedza augstāko punktu 2003. gadā,
03:17
and now they are down.
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un šobrīd tā virzās uz leju.
03:19
But they are falling only slowly,
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Tomēr tā krīt lejā lēnām,
03:21
because in Botswana, with good economy and governance,
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jo Botsvanā ar tās labo ekonomiku un pārvaldību
03:23
they can manage to treat people.
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ir iespējams cilvēkus ārstēt.
03:26
And if people who are infected are treated, they don't die of AIDS.
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Un, ja HIV inficētie cilvēki tiek ārstēti, viņi no AIDS nemirst.
03:29
These percentages won't come down
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Šie procenti nekritīsies,
03:32
because people can survive 10 to 20 years.
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jo cilvēki var izdzīvot 10 līdz 20 gadus.
03:34
So there's some problem with these metrics now.
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Nu ir neliela problēma ar šiem kritērijiem.
03:37
But the poorer countries in Africa, the low-income countries down here,
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Savukārt, nabadzīgākajās Āfrikas valstīs, zemo ienākumu valstīs šeit lejā
03:41
there the rates fall faster, of the percentage infected,
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inficēto procentuālais līmenis krītas ātrāk,
03:47
because people still die.
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jo cilvēki joprojām mirst.
03:49
In spite of PEPFAR, the generous PEPFAR,
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Par spīti PEPFAR, dāsnajam PEPFAR
03:52
all people are not reached by treatment,
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ne visus cilvēkus sasniedz ārstniecības līdzekļi,
03:55
and of those who are reached by treatment in the poor countries,
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un no tiem, kuriem nabadzīgajās valstīs ir pieejama ārstēšana,
03:57
only 60 percent are left on treatment after two years.
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tikai 60 procentiem tiek turpināta ārstēšana arī pēc 2 gadiem.
04:00
It's not realistic with lifelong treatment
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Visiem inficētajiem nabadzīgajās valstīs
04:04
for everyone in the poorest countries.
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reāli nav iespējama ārstēšana visas dzīves garumā.
04:06
But it's very good that what is done is being done.
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Bet ir ļoti apsveicami, ka tiek darīts tas, kas tiek darīts.
04:09
But focus now is back on prevention.
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Šobrīd uzmanība jāpievērš atpakaļ prevencijai.
04:13
It is only by stopping the transmission
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Tikai apturot HIV nodošanu tālāk,
04:16
that the world will be able to deal with it.
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pasaule spēs ar to tikt galā.
04:19
Drugs is too costly -- had we had the vaccine,
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Zāles ir pārāk dārgas. Ja mums būtu vakcīna
04:21
or when we will get the vaccine, that's something more effective --
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vai kad mums būs vakcīna, tas būs kaut kas efektīvāks,
04:24
but the drugs are very costly for the poor.
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bet šobrīd zāles nabadzīgajiem cilvēkiem ir ļoti dārgas.
04:26
Not the drug in itself, but the treatment
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Ne pašas zāles, bet ārstēšana
04:28
and the care which is needed around it.
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un aprūpe, kas nepieciešama zāļu lietošanas ietvaros.
04:32
So, when we look at the pattern,
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Tātad, aplūkojot iezīmes,
04:35
one thing comes out very clearly:
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skaidra kļūst viena lieta:
04:37
you see the blue bubbles
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Jūs redzat zilos burbuļus,
04:39
and people say HIV is very high in Africa.
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un cilvēki vēl saka, ka HIV ir ļoti izplatīts Āfrikā.
04:41
I would say, HIV is very different in Africa.
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Es teiktu, HIV Āfrikā ir ļoti dažāds.
04:44
You'll find the highest HIV rate in the world
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Jūs atradīsiet pasaulē augstākos HIV inficēto līmeņus
04:48
in African countries,
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Āfrikas valstīs,
04:50
and yet you'll find Senegal, down here --
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un tomēr Senegāla atrodama šeit lejā,
04:52
the same rate as United States.
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tādā pašā līmenī kā ASV.
04:54
And you'll find Madagascar,
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Jūs redzat Madagaskaru,
04:56
and you'll find a lot of African countries
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kā arī daudz citas Āfrikas valstis
04:58
about as low as the rest of the world.
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aptuveni tikpat zemā līmenī kā visa pārējā pasaule.
05:01
It's this terrible simplification that there's one Africa
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Pastāv šī briesmīgā vienkāršošana, ka Āfrika ir viena
05:05
and things go on in one way in Africa.
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un Āfrikā viss notiek vienādi.
05:07
We have to stop that.
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Mums tas ir jāizbeidz.
05:09
It's not respectful, and it's not very clever
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Tādā veidā tiek izrādīta necieņa, un nav ļoti gudri
05:12
to think that way.
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šādi domāt.
05:14
(Applause)
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(Aplausi)
05:18
I had the fortune to live and work for a time in the United States.
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Man bija tā veiksme kādu laiku dzīvot un strādāt ASV.
05:21
I found out that Salt Lake City and San Francisco were different.
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Es uzzināju kā Soltleiksitija un Sanfrancisko nav viens un tas pats.
05:25
(Laughter)
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(Smiekli)
05:27
And so it is in Africa -- it's a lot of difference.
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Tāpat tas ir Āfrikā, pastāv daudz atšķirību.
05:30
So, why is it so high? Is it war?
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Tad kāpēc tas ir tik augsts? Kara dēļ?
05:32
No, it's not. Look here.
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Nē, tā nav. Skat!
05:34
War-torn Congo is down there -- two, three, four percent.
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Šeit lejā atrodas kara plosītā Kongo — viens, divi, trīs četri procenti.
05:37
And this is peaceful Zambia, neighboring country -- 15 percent.
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Un šeit ir mierīgā Zambija, kaimiņvalsts — 15 %.
05:41
And there's good studies of the refugees coming out of Congo --
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Ir veikti labi pētījumi par bēgļiem no Kongo,
05:44
they have two, three percent infected,
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starp tiem ir 2 līdz 3% inficēto,
05:46
and peaceful Zambia -- much higher.
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un mierīgajā Zambijā — daudz augstāks.
05:48
There are now studies clearly showing
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Šobrīd ir pētījumi, kas skaidri parāda,
05:50
that the wars are terrible, that rapes are terrible,
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ka kari ir šausmīgi, izvarošana ir šausmīga,
05:53
but this is not the driving force for the high levels in Africa.
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bet tie nav galvenie dzinējspēki aiz augstā HIV inficēto līmeņa Āfrikā.
05:56
So, is it poverty?
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Vai tā ir nabadzība?
05:58
Well if you look at the macro level,
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Ja mēs skatāmies lielākā līmenī,
06:00
it seems more money, more HIV.
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šķiet jo vairāk naudas, jo vairāk HIV.
06:02
But that's very simplistic,
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Bet tas ir ļoti vienkāršoti,
06:05
so let's go down and look at Tanzania.
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tādēļ paskatīsimies lejā uz Tanzāniju.
06:07
I will split Tanzania in five income groups,
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Es sadalīšu Tanzāniju piecās ienākumu grupās
06:11
from the highest income to the lowest income,
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no augstākajiem uz zemākajiem ienākumiem,
06:13
and here we go.
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tad nu aiziet.
06:15
The ones with the highest income, the better off -- I wouldn't say rich --
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Cilvēki ar augstākajiem ienākumiem, labāk nodrošinātie, es neteiktu bagātie,
06:18
they have higher HIV.
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viņiem ir augstāks HIV līmenis.
06:20
The difference goes from 11 percent down to four percent,
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Atsķirība sniedzas no 11% līdz 4%,
06:23
and it is even bigger among women.
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un tā ir vēl lielāka sieviešu vidū.
06:25
There's a lot of things that we thought, that now, good research,
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Pastāvēja daudzi uzskati, bet nu ir labi pētījumi,
06:29
done by African institutions and researchers
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kurus veikušas Āfrikas institūcijas un pētnieki
06:32
together with the international researchers, show that that's not the case.
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kopā ar starptautiskajiem pētniekiem, mums rāda, ka tā tas nav.
06:35
So, this is the difference within Tanzania.
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Tātad šadas ir atšķirības Tanzānijā.
06:37
And, I can't avoid showing Kenya.
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Es jums nevaru neparādīt Keniju.
06:39
Look here at Kenya.
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Palūk uz Keniju!
06:41
I've split Kenya in its provinces.
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Es esmu sadalījis Keniju tās provincēs.
06:43
Here it goes.
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Aiziet!
06:45
See the difference within one African country --
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Redziet atšķirības vienas Āfrikas valsts ietvaros —
06:48
it goes from very low level to very high level,
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inficēto līmenis svārstās no ļoti zema līdz ļoti augstam,
06:51
and most of the provinces in Kenya is quite modest.
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un lielākajā daļā Kenijas provinču tas ir diezgan mērens.
06:54
So, what is it then?
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Kas tad tas ir?
06:56
Why do we see this extremely high levels in some countries?
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Kādēļ dažas valstīs mēs redzam šo ļoti augsto inficēto līmeni?
07:00
Well, it is more common with multiple partners,
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HIV ir biežāk sastopams cilvēkiem ar vairākiem partneriem,
07:03
there is less condom use,
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cilvēkiem, kas retāk lieto prezervatīvus,
07:06
and there is age-disparate sex --
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un vēl pastāv dzimumattiecības starp vecuma ziņā atšķirīgiem cilvēkiem,
07:09
that is, older men tend to have sex with younger women.
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tas ir, vecāki vīrieši mēdz nodarboties ar seksu ar jaunākām sievietēm.
07:12
We see higher rates in younger women than younger men
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Mēs varam novērot augstāku inficēto līmeni jaunu sieviešu vidū nekā jaunu vīriešu vidū
07:15
in many of these highly affected countries.
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daudzās no šīm smagi skartajām valstīm.
07:17
But where are they situated?
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Bet kur tās atrodas?
07:19
I will swap the bubbles to a map.
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Es samainīšu burbuļus pret karti.
07:21
Look, the highly infected are four percent of all population
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Lūk, valstis ar augstu inficētības līmeni virs 4% no populācijas,
07:25
and they hold 50 percent of the HIV-infected.
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tās veido 50% no HIV inficētajiem visā pasaulē.
07:28
HIV exists all over the world.
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HIV pastāv visā pasaulē.
07:31
Look, you have bubbles all over the world here.
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Lūk, šeit ir burbuļi visā pasaulē.
07:33
Brazil has many HIV-infected.
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Brazīlijā ir daudz HIV inficēto.
07:36
Arab countries not so much, but Iran is quite high.
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Arābu valstīs ne tik daudz, bet Irānā inficēto līmenis ir diezgan augsts.
07:39
They have heroin addiction and also prostitution in Iran.
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Irānā liela problēma ir heroīna atkarība un arī prostitūcija.
07:43
India has many because they are many.
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Indijā ir daudz inficēto, jo tur ir daudz cilvēku.
07:45
Southeast Asia, and so on.
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Dienvidaustrumāzija un tā tālāk.
07:47
But, there is one part of Africa --
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Bet ir viena Āfrikas daļa,
07:49
and the difficult thing is, at the same time,
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un tajā pašā laikā, no vienas puses, ir grūti
07:51
not to make a uniform statement about Africa,
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neizteikt vispārīgus apgalvojumus par Āfriku,
07:55
not to come to simple ideas of why it is like this, on one hand.
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nenonākt pie vienkāršotiem uzskatiem, kāpēc tas tā ir.
07:59
On the other hand, try to say that this is not the case,
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No otras puses, ir grūti mēģināt apgalvot, ka tas tā nav,
08:02
because there is a scientific consensus about this pattern now.
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jo šobrīd pastāv zinātniski atzinumi par šo tendenci.
08:06
UNAIDS have done good data available, finally,
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UNAIDS beidzot ir ieguvusi labus datus
08:09
about the spread of HIV.
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par HIV izplatību.
08:12
It could be concurrency.
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Tā varētu būt sakritība.
08:15
It could be some virus types.
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Tie varētu būt daži vīrusa tipi.
08:18
It could be that there is other things
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Varētu būt arī citas lietas,
08:22
which makes transmission occur in a higher frequency.
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kas nosaka augstāku HIV transmisijas biežumu.
08:25
After all, if you are completely healthy and you have heterosexual sex,
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Galu galā, pilnīgi veselam cilvēkam, kam ir heteroseksuālas dzimumattiecības,
08:28
the risk of infection in one intercourse is one in 1,000.
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inficēšanās risks viena dzimumakta laikā ir 1 pret 1000.
08:33
Don't jump to conclusions now on how to
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Nesteidzieties pie secinājumiem par to,
08:35
behave tonight and so on.
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kā šovakar uzvesties vai tamlīdzīgi.
08:37
(Laughter)
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(Smiekli)
08:39
But -- and if you are in an unfavorable situation,
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Savukārt, ja esat neizdevīgākā situācijā,
08:42
more sexually transmitted diseases, it can be one in 100.
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ar vairāk seksuāli transmisīvajām slimībām, inficēšanās risks var būt 1 pret 100.
08:45
But what we think is that it could be concurrency.
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Mēs domājam, ka tā varētu būt sakritība.
08:48
And what is concurrency?
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Kas ir sakritība?
08:50
In Sweden, we have no concurrency.
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Mums Zviedrijā nav sakritības.
08:52
We have serial monogamy.
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Mums ir sērijveida monogāmija.
08:54
Vodka, New Year's Eve -- new partner for the spring.
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Šņabis, Vecgada vakars, jauns partneris pavasarim.
08:56
Vodka, Midsummer's Eve -- new partner for the fall.
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Šņabis, vasaras saulgrieži, jauns partneris rudenim.
08:58
Vodka -- and it goes on like this, you know?
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Šņabis, un, ziniet, tā tas viss turpinās.
09:00
And you collect a big number of exes.
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Jūs sakrājat lielu skaitu bijušo partneru.
09:03
And we have a terrible chlamydia epidemic --
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Un mums ir briesmīga hlamīdiju epidēmija,
09:05
terrible chlamydia epidemic which sticks around for many years.
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kas neatkāpjas daudzus gadus.
09:09
HIV has a peak three to six weeks after infection
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HIV savu maksimumu sasniedz 3 līdz 6 nedēļas pēc inficēšanās,
09:12
and therefore, having more than one partner in the same month
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tādēļ vairāki partneri viena mēneša laikā
09:15
is much more dangerous for HIV than others.
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ir daudz bīstamāk attiecībā uz HIV inficēšanās risku nekā citu saslimšanu gadījumā.
09:18
Probably, it's a combination of this.
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Visticamākais, tā ir šo dažādo faktoru kombinācija.
09:20
And what makes me so happy is that we are moving now
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Mani priecē tas, ka mēs, aplūkojot šo,
09:23
towards fact when we look at this.
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šobrīd nonākam pie šī fakta.
09:25
You can get this chart, free.
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Jūs varat dabūt šo grafiku par brīvu.
09:27
We have uploaded UNAIDS data on the Gapminder site.
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Mēs esam augšupielādējuši UNAIDS datus Gapminder mājaslapā.
09:30
And we hope that when we act on global problems in the future
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Mēs ceram, ka turpmāk, risinot pasaules problēmas,
09:34
we will not only have the heart,
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mēs varēsim izmantot ne tikai savu sirdi,
09:37
we will not only have the money,
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mēs varēsim izmantot ne tikai naudu,
09:39
but we will also use the brain.
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bet varēsim izmantot arī savas smadzenes.
09:42
Thank you very much.
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Liels paldies!
09:44
(Applause)
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(Aplausi)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionaryIn Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
Why you should listen
Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.
What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.
Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)
Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.
Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com