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TED2009

Hans Rosling: Insights on HIV, in stunning data visuals

Hans Rosling: HIV -- nove činjenice i zapanjujući vizualni prikazi podataka

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Hans Rosling otkriva nove prikaze podataka koji otpetljavaju složene faktore rizika jednog od najsmrtonosnijih bolesti na svijetu (i najčešće krivo shvaćene): HIV-a. On tvrdi kako je prevencija prenošenja -- ne tretmani lijekovima -- ključ za zaustavljanje epidemije.

- Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio

(Applause)
(Pljesak)
00:12
AIDS was discovered 1981; the virus, 1983.
SIDA je otkrivena 1981.,
a virus, 1983.
00:18
These Gapminder bubbles show you
Ovi Gapminder krugovi vam prikazuju
00:23
how the spread of the virus was in 1983 in the world,
koliko je virus bio
raširen 1983. u svijetu,
00:25
or how we estimate that it was.
ili koliko procjenjujemo da je bio.
00:29
What we are showing here is --
Ono što je ovdje prikazano su --
00:31
on this axis here, I'm showing percent of infected adults.
na ovoj osi ovdje,
postotak zaraženih odraslih osoba.
00:33
And on this axis, I'm showing dollars per person in income.
A na ovoj osi, pokazujem prihode
po osobi u dolarima.
00:40
And the size of these bubbles, the size of the bubbles here,
Veličina ovih krugova,
veličina ovih krugova ovdje,
00:45
that shows how many are infected in each country,
pokazuje koliko je zaraženih
u svakoj od država,
00:49
and the color is the continent.
a boja predstavlja kontinent.
00:52
Now, you can see United States, in 1983,
Ovdje možete vidjeti da su
Sjedinjene Države, 1983.
00:54
had a very low percentage infected,
imale vrlo nizak postotak zaraženih,
00:56
but due to the big population, still a sizable bubble.
no zbog veličine populacije,
to je još uvijek velik krug.
00:59
There were quite many people infected in the United States.
Bilo je prilično mnogo zaraženih
u Sjedinjenim Državama.
01:03
And, up there, you see Uganda.
A, ovdje gore, vidite Ugandu.
01:06
They had almost five percent infected,
Oni su imali skoro pet posto zaraženih,
01:08
and quite a big bubble in spite of being a small country, then.
i prilično velik krug bez obzira
na to što se radi o maloj državi.
01:11
And they were probably the most infected country in the world.
Oni su vjerojatno bili
najzaraženija država na svijetu.
01:14
Now, what has happened?
No, što se dogodilo?
01:19
Now you have understood the graph
Sad ste shvatili prikaz,
01:21
and now, in the next 60 seconds,
i sad, u sljedećih 60 sekundi,
01:23
we will play the HIV epidemic in the world.
pogledat ćemo epidemiju HIV-a u svijetu.
01:26
But first, I have a new invention here.
Ali prije toga, imam ovdje novi izum.
01:29
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
01:34
I have solidified the beam of the laser pointer.
Učvrsnuo sam snop laser pokazivača.
01:39
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
01:43
(Applause)
(Pljesak)
01:46
So, ready, steady, go!
Priprema, pozor, sad!
01:52
First, we have the fast rise in Uganda and Zimbabwe.
Prvo, imamo brzi porast
u Ugandi i Zimbabwe-u.
01:56
They went upwards like this.
Oni su išli gore ovako.
02:00
In Asia, the first country to be heavily infected was Thailand --
U Aziji, prva zemlja koja je bila
teško zahvačena je Tajland --
02:02
they reached one to two percent.
oni su dosegli jedan do dva posto.
02:06
Then, Uganda started to turn back,
Onda, Uganda se počela vraćati natrag,
02:08
whereas Zimbabwe skyrocketed,
dok je Zimbabve naglo porastao,
02:10
and some years later South Africa had a terrible rise of HIV frequency.
i nekoliko godina kasnije Južna Afrika
je imala grozan porast učestalosti HIV-a.
02:12
Look, India got many infected,
Pogledajte, Indija ima mnogo zaraženih,
02:16
but had a low level.
ali ima nisku razinu.
02:18
And almost the same happens here.
Skoro isto se dogodilo ovdje.
02:20
See, Uganda coming down, Zimbabwe coming down,
Vidite, Uganda se vraća dolje,
Zimbabve se spušta,
02:22
Russia went to one percent.
Rusija je otišla na jedan posto.
02:25
In the last two to three years,
U zadnje dvije do tri godine,
02:27
we have reached a steady state of HIV epidemic in the world.
mi smo dosegli stabilno stanje
HIV epidemije u svijetu.
02:30
25 years it took.
Za to je trebalo 25 godina.
02:34
But, steady state doesn't mean that things are getting better,
Ali stabilno stanje ne znači
da su se stvari poboljšale,
02:37
it's just that they have stopped getting worse.
samo su se prestale pogoršavati.
02:40
And it has -- the steady state is, more or less,
I jesu -- stabilno stanje je,
više ili manje,
02:43
one percent of the adult world population is HIV-infected.
da je jedan posto odrasle
svjetske populacije zaraženo HIV-om.
02:47
It means 30 to 40 million people,
To znači 30 do 40 milijuna ljudi,
02:51
the whole of California -- every person,
to je cijela Kalifornija -- svaka osoba,
02:54
that's more or less what we have today in the world.
to je više manje ono
što danas imamo u svijetu.
02:56
Now, let me make a fast replay of Botswana.
Sada ću napraviti brzo
ponavljanje Bocvane.
02:58
Botswana -- upper middle-income country in southern Africa,
Bocvana -- zemlja sa
gornje srednjim prihodima u južnoj Africi,
03:03
democratic government, good economy,
ima demokratsku vladu, dobru ekonomiju,
03:07
and this is what happened there.
i evo što se tamo dogodilo.
03:10
They started low, they skyrocketed,
Oni su počeli nisko,
onda su jako brzo porasil,
03:12
they peaked up there in 2003,
dosegnuli su vrh tamo u 2003.,
03:14
and now they are down.
a sada su tu dolje.
03:17
But they are falling only slowly,
Ali oni samo padaju polako,
03:19
because in Botswana, with good economy and governance,
zato što u Bocvani,
s dobrom ekonomijom i vladom,
03:21
they can manage to treat people.
oni mogu davati ljudima terapiju.
03:23
And if people who are infected are treated, they don't die of AIDS.
I ako osobe koje su zaražene
dobivaju terapiju, oni ne umiru od AIDS-a.
03:26
These percentages won't come down
Ovi postotci neće se spustiti
03:29
because people can survive 10 to 20 years.
zato što ljudi mogu
preživjeti 10 do 20 godina.
03:32
So there's some problem with these metrics now.
Tako da sada postoji problem
s ovim mjerenjima.
03:34
But the poorer countries in Africa, the low-income countries down here,
Ali siromašnije zemlje u Africi,
one s niskim prihodima ovdje,
03:37
there the rates fall faster, of the percentage infected,
tamo stope brže padaju,
postotci zaraženih padaju,
03:41
because people still die.
zato što ljudi još uvijek umiru.
03:47
In spite of PEPFAR, the generous PEPFAR,
Bez obzira na PEPFAR,
velikodušni PEPFAR,
03:49
all people are not reached by treatment,
nisu svi ljudi pod terapijom,
03:52
and of those who are reached by treatment in the poor countries,
a od onih koji dobivaju terapiju
u siromašnijim zemljama,
03:55
only 60 percent are left on treatment after two years.
samo 60 posto su i dalje
na terapiji nakon dvije godine.
03:57
It's not realistic with lifelong treatment
Nije realistično imati doživotnu terapiju
04:00
for everyone in the poorest countries.
za sve u najsiromašnijim zemljama.
04:04
But it's very good that what is done is being done.
Ali je jako dobro
da se radi to što se radi.
04:06
But focus now is back on prevention.
Ali je sada fokus opet na prevenciji.
04:09
It is only by stopping the transmission
Samo ako zaustavimo prenošenje
04:13
that the world will be able to deal with it.
će se svijet moći nositi s HIV-om.
04:16
Drugs is too costly -- had we had the vaccine,
Lijekovi su pre skupi -- da imamo cjepivo,
04:19
or when we will get the vaccine, that's something more effective --
ili kada ćemo imati cjepivo,
to je nešto što bi bilo puno učinkovitije --
04:21
but the drugs are very costly for the poor.
ali lijekovi su jako skupi za siromašne.
04:24
Not the drug in itself, but the treatment
Ne lijek kao takav, ali terapija
04:26
and the care which is needed around it.
i njega koje je potrebna uz to.
04:28
So, when we look at the pattern,
Kada pogledamo uzorak,
04:32
one thing comes out very clearly:
jedna stvar je potpuno jasna,
04:35
you see the blue bubbles
vidite plave krugove
04:37
and people say HIV is very high in Africa.
i ljudi kažu da je HIV čest u Africi.
04:39
I would say, HIV is very different in Africa.
Rekao bih, HIV je drugačiji u Africi.
04:41
You'll find the highest HIV rate in the world
Naći ćete najvišu stopu HIV-a
04:44
in African countries,
u Africi,
04:48
and yet you'll find Senegal, down here --
a ipak ćete naći Senegal ovdje dolje --
04:50
the same rate as United States.
ista stopa kao SAD.
04:52
And you'll find Madagascar,
I naći ćete Madagaskar,
04:54
and you'll find a lot of African countries
i naći ćete puno afričkih zemalja
04:56
about as low as the rest of the world.
koje su nisko kao i ostatak svijeta.
04:58
It's this terrible simplification that there's one Africa
Ovo strašno pojednostavljivanje
da postoji jedna Afrika
05:01
and things go on in one way in Africa.
i da se stvari u Africi
događaju na jedan način.
05:05
We have to stop that.
To moramo zaustaviti.
05:07
It's not respectful, and it's not very clever
Nije puno poštovanja, i nije najpametnije
05:09
to think that way.
razmišljati tako.
05:12
(Applause)
(Pljesak)
05:14
I had the fortune to live and work for a time in the United States.
Imao sam sreće živjeti
i raditi neko vrijeme u SAD-u.
05:18
I found out that Salt Lake City and San Francisco were different.
Utvrdio sam da su Salt Lake City
i San Francisco različiti.
05:21
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
05:25
And so it is in Africa -- it's a lot of difference.
Tako je i u Africi
-- ima puno raznolikosti.
05:27
So, why is it so high? Is it war?
Pa, zašto je tako visoko?
Je li to zbog rata?
05:30
No, it's not. Look here.
Nije. Pogledajte ovdje.
05:32
War-torn Congo is down there -- two, three, four percent.
Ratni Kongo je ovdje --
dva, tri, četiri posto.
05:34
And this is peaceful Zambia, neighboring country -- 15 percent.
I ovo je mirna Zambija, susjedna zemlja --
15 posto.
05:37
And there's good studies of the refugees coming out of Congo --
I postoje dobra istraživanja izbjeglica
koje izlaze iz Konga --
05:41
they have two, three percent infected,
imaju dva, tri posto zaraženih,
05:44
and peaceful Zambia -- much higher.
i mirna Zambija -- puno više.
05:46
There are now studies clearly showing
Tu su istraživanja koja jasno pokazuju
05:48
that the wars are terrible, that rapes are terrible,
da je rat užasan,
i da se silovanja događaju,
05:50
but this is not the driving force for the high levels in Africa.
ali to nije pokretačka sila visokih razina
u Africi.
05:53
So, is it poverty?
Dakle, je li to siromaštvo?
05:56
Well if you look at the macro level,
Ako gledate na makro razini,
05:58
it seems more money, more HIV.
čini se, više novca, više HIV-a.
06:00
But that's very simplistic,
Ali to je vrlo pojednostavljeno,
06:02
so let's go down and look at Tanzania.
idemo pogledati Tanzaniju.
06:05
I will split Tanzania in five income groups,
Podijelit ću Tanzaniju
u pet skupina prihoda,
06:07
from the highest income to the lowest income,
od najnižih i najviših prihoda,
06:11
and here we go.
i evo nas.
06:13
The ones with the highest income, the better off -- I wouldn't say rich --
Oni s najvišim prihodom, kojima je bolje
-- ne bih rekao bogati --
06:15
they have higher HIV.
više razine HIV-a.
06:18
The difference goes from 11 percent down to four percent,
Razlika pada od 11 posto do 4,
06:20
and it is even bigger among women.
i čak je i veća među ženama.
06:23
There's a lot of things that we thought, that now, good research,
Postoji puno stvari u koje smo vjerovali,
koje sad dobro istraživanje,
06:25
done by African institutions and researchers
koje rade afričke institucije
i istraživači
06:29
together with the international researchers, show that that's not the case.
zajedno s međunarodnim istraživačima,
pokazuju da to nije slučaj.
06:32
So, this is the difference within Tanzania.
Ovo je razlika unutar Tanzanije.
06:35
And, I can't avoid showing Kenya.
I ne mogu izbjeći Keniju.
06:37
Look here at Kenya.
Pogledajte Keniju.
06:39
I've split Kenya in its provinces.
Podijelio sam Keniju prema provincijama.
06:41
Here it goes.
Evo ga.
06:43
See the difference within one African country --
Pogledajte razliku unutar
jedne Afričke zemlje --
06:45
it goes from very low level to very high level,
ide od vrlo niske razine do vrlo visoke,
06:48
and most of the provinces in Kenya is quite modest.
i većina provincija
u Keniji je poprilično skromna.
06:51
So, what is it then?
Pa, o čemu se radi?
06:54
Why do we see this extremely high levels in some countries?
Zašto su ovako visoke razine
u nekim zemljama?
06:56
Well, it is more common with multiple partners,
Pa, učestalije je s više partnera,
07:00
there is less condom use,
manje se koriste kondomi,
07:03
and there is age-disparate sex --
i tu je disparitet u snošaju --
07:06
that is, older men tend to have sex with younger women.
to jest, stariji ljudi
imaju snošaj s mlađim ženama.
07:09
We see higher rates in younger women than younger men
Vidimo više razine kod mlađih žena
nego mlađih muškaraca
07:12
in many of these highly affected countries.
u mnogim ovim zemljama s visokim stopama.
07:15
But where are they situated?
Ali gdje su oni smješteni?
07:17
I will swap the bubbles to a map.
Zamijenit ću krugove kartom.
07:19
Look, the highly infected are four percent of all population
Pogledajte, visoka stopa
od 4 posto čitave populacije,
07:21
and they hold 50 percent of the HIV-infected.
i oni drže 50 posto zaraženih HIV-om.
07:25
HIV exists all over the world.
HIV postoji posvuda u svijetu.
07:28
Look, you have bubbles all over the world here.
Imate krugove po čitavom svijetu.
07:31
Brazil has many HIV-infected.
Brazil ima mnoge zaražene HIV-om.
07:33
Arab countries not so much, but Iran is quite high.
Arapske zemlje ne toliko, ali Iran
je poprilično visok.
07:36
They have heroin addiction and also prostitution in Iran.
Imaju ovisnost o heroinu
i prostituke u Iranu.
07:39
India has many because they are many.
Indija ima mnogo jer ih je puno.
07:43
Southeast Asia, and so on.
Jugoistočna Azija i tako dalje.
07:45
But, there is one part of Africa --
Ali postoji jedan dio Afrike --
07:47
and the difficult thing is, at the same time,
i teška stvar je, u isto vrijeme,
07:49
not to make a uniform statement about Africa,
ne raditi jedinstvenu izjavu o Africi,
07:51
not to come to simple ideas of why it is like this, on one hand.
ne doći do jednostavnih ideja
zašto je to tako, s jedne strane.
07:55
On the other hand, try to say that this is not the case,
S druge strane,
pokušajte reći da to nije slučaj,
07:59
because there is a scientific consensus about this pattern now.
jer postoji znanstveni konsenzus
o ovom uzorku.
08:02
UNAIDS have done good data available, finally,
UNAIDS je prikazao dobre podatke, napokon,
08:06
about the spread of HIV.
o širenju HIV-a.
08:09
It could be concurrency.
Moglo bi biti potpomaganje.
08:12
It could be some virus types.
Mogle bi biti vrste virusa.
08:15
It could be that there is other things
Moglo bi biti da postoje druge stvari
08:18
which makes transmission occur in a higher frequency.
koje uzrokuju učestalije prenošenje.
08:22
After all, if you are completely healthy and you have heterosexual sex,
Napokon, ako ste potpuno zdravi
i imate heteroseksualne odnose,
08:25
the risk of infection in one intercourse is one in 1,000.
rizik infekcije u jednom snošaju
je jedan nasprama 1.000.
08:28
Don't jump to conclusions now on how to
Ne zaključujte na prečac kako
08:33
behave tonight and so on.
se ponašati večeras i tako dalje.
08:35
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
08:37
But -- and if you are in an unfavorable situation,
Ali -- i ako ste u nepovoljnoj situaciji,
08:39
more sexually transmitted diseases, it can be one in 100.
više seksualno prenosivih bolesti,
može biti 1 naprema 100.
08:42
But what we think is that it could be concurrency.
Ali mislimo da bi to moglo
biti potpomaganje.
08:45
And what is concurrency?
A što je to potpomaganje?
08:48
In Sweden, we have no concurrency.
U Švedskoj, nemamo potpomaganje.
08:50
We have serial monogamy.
Imamo serijsku monogamiju.
08:52
Vodka, New Year's Eve -- new partner for the spring.
Vodka, Nova Godina --
novi partner za proljeće.
08:54
Vodka, Midsummer's Eve -- new partner for the fall.
Vodka, Ljetna noć --
novi partner za jesen.
08:56
Vodka -- and it goes on like this, you know?
Vodka -- i tako dalje, znate?
08:58
And you collect a big number of exes.
I skupite velik broj bivših.
09:00
And we have a terrible chlamydia epidemic --
I imamo užasne epidemije klamidije --
09:03
terrible chlamydia epidemic which sticks around for many years.
užasne epidemije klamidije
koje su tu godinama.
09:05
HIV has a peak three to six weeks after infection
HIV ima vrhunac tri do šest tjedana
nakon infekcije
09:09
and therefore, having more than one partner in the same month
i zato, imati više partnera
u jednom mjesecu
09:12
is much more dangerous for HIV than others.
je puno opasnije za HIV od drugih.
09:15
Probably, it's a combination of this.
Vjerojatno, to je kombinacija ovoga.
09:18
And what makes me so happy is that we are moving now
I ono što me čini sretnim
jest da se krećemo
09:20
towards fact when we look at this.
prema činjenicama kada gledamo ovo.
09:23
You can get this chart, free.
Možete dobiti ovaj graf, besplatno.
09:25
We have uploaded UNAIDS data on the Gapminder site.
Stavili smo podatke UNAIDSA
na Gapminder stranicu.
09:27
And we hope that when we act on global problems in the future
I nadamo se da kada budemo djelovali
na globalne probleme u budućnosti
09:30
we will not only have the heart,
nećemo samo imati srca,
09:34
we will not only have the money,
nećemo samo imati novca,
09:37
but we will also use the brain.
već ćemo koristiti i mozak.
09:39
Thank you very much.
Hvala vam puno.
09:42
(Applause)
(Pljesak)
09:44

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About the speaker:

Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.

Why you should listen

Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us will have their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his current work focuses on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (he points out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.

What sets Rosling apart isn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presents them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. By any logic, a presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.

Rosling's presentations are grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling takes this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.

Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)

Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.

As if all this weren't enough, the irrepressible Rosling is also an accomplished sword-swallower — a skill he demonstrated at TED2007.


More profile about the speaker
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com