TEDGlobal 2005
Barry Schwartz: The paradox of choice
Beri Švarc o paradoksu izbora
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Readability: 3.5
14,210,098 views
Psiholog Beri Švarc preispituje osnovno načelo misli zapadnjačkih društava: slobodu izbora. Prema Švarcovoj proceni, izbori nas ne čine slobodnijim već još više paralizovanim, nezadovoljnijim pre nego srećnijim.
Barry Schwartz - Psychologist
Barry Schwartz studies the link between economics and psychology, offering startling insights into modern life. Lately, working with Ken Sharpe, he's studying wisdom. Full bio
Barry Schwartz studies the link between economics and psychology, offering startling insights into modern life. Lately, working with Ken Sharpe, he's studying wisdom. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:25
I'm going to talk to you about some stuff that's in this book of mine
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Pričaću vam o nekim stvarima koje se nalaze u mojoj knjizi
00:28
that I hope will resonate with other things you've already heard,
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i za koje se nadam da će biti u skladu sa drugim stvarima koje ste već čuli
00:31
and I'll try to make some connections myself, in case you miss them.
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i potrudiću se da povezujem neke detalje, u slučaju da ih ne uhvatite.
00:35
I want to start with what I call the "official dogma."
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Želim da počnem sa nečim što ja zovem "zvanična dogma".
00:39
The official dogma of what?
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Zvanična dogma čega?
00:41
The official dogma of all western industrial societies.
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Zvanična dogma svih zapadnih industrijskih društava.
00:45
And the official dogma runs like this:
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A zvanična dogma glasi ovako:
00:47
if we are interested in maximizing the welfare of our citizens,
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ukoliko smo zainteresovani da radimo na poboljšanju dobrobiti naših građana,
00:51
the way to do that is to maximize individual freedom.
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način da to postignemo jeste da im povećamo individualnu slobodu.
00:57
The reason for this is both that freedom is in and of itself good,
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Razlog ovome jeste da je sloboda sama po sebi dobra,
01:02
valuable, worthwhile, essential to being human.
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vredna i esencijalna za ljudsku prirodu.
01:05
And because if people have freedom,
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I upravo zato što su ljudi slobodni,
01:08
then each of us can act on our own
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svako od nas može delovati kako hoće
01:10
to do the things that will maximize our welfare,
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i raditi stvari koje će biti za njegovo dobro
01:12
and no one has to decide on our behalf.
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i niko drugi ne mora odlučivati umesto nas.
01:16
The way to maximize freedom is to maximize choice.
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Način za poboljšvanje slobode jeste povećanje izbora.
01:21
The more choice people have, the more freedom they have,
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Što više izbora ljudi imaju, imaće više slobode,
01:24
and the more freedom they have,
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a što više slobode imaju,
01:26
the more welfare they have.
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živeće u većem blagostanju.
01:29
This, I think, is so deeply embedded in the water supply
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Ovo je do te mere usađeno u svest ljudi
01:34
that it wouldn't occur to anyone to question it.
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da to više niko i ne preispituje.
01:37
And it's also deeply embedded in our lives.
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I to je takođe duboko ukorenjeno u naše živote.
01:42
I'll give you some examples of what modern progress has made possible for us.
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Izneću vam neke primere šta je sve moderni progres učinio dostupnim i mogućim.
01:48
This is my supermarket. Not such a big one.
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Ovo je moj supermarket. Nije toliko velik.
01:52
I want to say just a word about salad dressing.
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Reći ću vam nešto o prelivima za salatu.
01:54
175 salad dressings in my supermarket,
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Postoji 175 preliva za salatu u tom supermarketu,
01:57
if you don't count the 10 extra-virgin olive oils
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ukoliko ne računate 10 različitih vrsta maslinovih ulja
02:00
and 12 balsamic vinegars you could buy
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i 12 vrsta sirćeta koje je moguće kupiti
02:03
to make a very large number of your own salad dressings,
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i kojima možete napraviti ogroman broj sopstvenih preliva za salatu,
02:06
in the off-chance that none of the 175 the store has on offer suit you.
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u slučaju da vam nijedan od ovih 175 postojećih ne odgovara.
02:11
So this is what the supermarket is like.
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Eto tako izgleda taj supermarket.
02:13
And then you go to the consumer electronics store to set up a stereo system --
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I onda ako hoćete da kupite muzički uređaj i odete u radnju za elektroniku --
02:17
speakers, CD player, tape player, tuner, amplifier --
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naći ćete sve od mikrofona, CD plejera, kasetofona, radija, do pojačala.
02:21
and in this one single consumer electronics store,
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I u samo jednoj prodavnici elektronike,
02:25
there are that many stereo systems.
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naći ćete toliko mnogo stereo sistema.
02:29
We can construct six-and-a-half-million different stereo systems
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Možemo sklopiti šest ipo miliona različitih muzičkih uređaja
02:34
out of the components that are on offer in one store.
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od komponenata koje su u ponudi u jednoj prodavnici.
02:37
You've got to admit that's a lot of choice.
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Morate priznati da je to stvarno mnogo izbora.
02:39
In other domains -- the world of communications.
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U drugim domenima -- u svetu komunikacija.
02:43
There was a time, when I was a boy,
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Postojalo je vreme, kad sam bio dečak,
02:45
when you could get any kind of telephone service you wanted,
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kada si mogao dobiti bilo koju telefonsku uslugu koju si želeo
02:48
as long as it came from Ma Bell.
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jedino od strane Ma Bell-a.
02:50
You rented your phone. You didn't buy it.
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Telefon se iznajmljivao. Nije se kupovao.
02:52
One consequence of that, by the way, is that the phone never broke.
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Jedna od posledica toga, uzgred, bila je ta da se telefon nikada nije kvario.
02:55
And those days are gone.
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I ti dani su prošli.
02:58
We now have an almost unlimited variety of phones,
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Danas imamo gotovo neograničenu raznolikost telefona,
03:01
especially in the world of cell phones.
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pogotovo u sferi mobilnih telefona.
03:03
These are cell phones of the future.
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Ovo su mobilni telefoni budućnosti.
03:06
My favorite is the middle one --
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Moj omiljeni je ovaj u sredini --
03:08
the MP3 player, nose hair trimmer, and creme brulee torch.
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sa MP3 plejerom, trimerom za dlake u nosu i plamenikom za krem burlee.
03:12
And if by some chance you haven't seen that in your store yet,
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I ukoliko ga nekim slučajem još niste videli u svojoj radnji
03:18
you can rest assured that one day soon you will.
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možete se opustiti jer ćete ga uskoro videti.
03:20
And what this does is
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I ono što se dešava
03:22
it leads people to walk into their stores asking this question.
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jeste da to navodi ljude da idu po tim prodavnicama i postavljaju takva pitanja.
03:26
And do you know what the answer to this question now is?
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I znate li kakav odgovor dobijaju?
03:28
The answer is "No."
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Odgovor je "Ne".
03:30
It is not possible to buy a cell phone that doesn't do too much.
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Nije moguće kupiti mobilni telefon koji ne radi previše stvari.
03:34
So, in other aspects of life that are much more significant than buying things,
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U drugim sferama života, bitnijim od kupovine raznih stvari,
03:39
the same explosion of choice is true.
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takođe postoji ista eksplozija mogućih izbora.
03:43
Health care -- it is no longer the case in the United States
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Medicinska nega -- u Americi više nije slučaj
03:47
that you go to the doctor, and the doctor tells you what to do.
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da odete kod lekara i on vam kaže šta da radite.
03:50
Instead, you go to the doctor,
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Umesto toga, odete kod lekara,
03:52
and the doctor tells you, "Well, we could do A, or we could do B.
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i lekar vam kaže: "Pa možete uraditi nešto ovako ili nešto onako.
03:55
A has these benefits, and these risks.
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Ovo prvo ima ove prednosti i ove rizike.
03:58
B has these benefits, and these risks. What do you want to do?"
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Druga opcija ima ove prednosti i ove rizike. Šta želite da uradite?"
04:02
And you say, "Doc, what should I do?"
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A vi kažete: "Doktore, šta bi trebalo da uradim?"
04:05
And the doc says, "A has these benefits and risks, and B has these benefits and risks.
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Doktor kaže, prva opcija ima te i te prednosti i rizike, druga opcija te i te.
04:09
What do you want to do?"
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Šta Vi želite da uradite?
04:12
And you say, "If you were me, Doc, what would you do?"
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A vi kažete: "Da ste na mom mestu doktore, šta bi ste Vi uradili?"
04:15
And the doc says, "But I'm not you."
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Doktor kaže, "Ali ja nisam Vi."
04:19
And the result is -- we call it "patient autonomy,"
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I rezultat je... zovemo ga "pacijentova autonomija",
04:22
which makes it sound like a good thing,
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što bi trebalo da zvuči kao dobra stvar.
04:24
but what it really is is a shifting of the burden and the responsibility
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A ono što to zapravo jeste je prebacivanje tereta odgovornosti
04:26
for decision-making from somebody who knows something --
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u vezi sa donošenjem odluka sa onoga ko zna nešto --
04:29
namely, the doctor --
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u ovom slučaju doktora --
04:30
to somebody who knows nothing and is almost certainly sick
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na nekoga ko ne zna ništa i ko je zapravo bolestan
04:33
and thus not in the best shape to be making decisions --
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i kao takav i nije u najboljem stanju da donosi takve odluke --
04:36
namely, the patient.
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pacijenta.
04:38
There's enormous marketing of prescription drugs
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Neverovatno je koliko se reklamiraju tablete na recept
04:41
to people like you and me,
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koje su namenjene ljudima kao što smo vi i ja,
04:42
which, if you think about it, makes no sense at all,
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što, ukoliko malo razmislite, nema nikakvog smisla,
04:44
since we can't buy them.
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s obzirom da ih mi ne možemo kupiti.
04:46
Why do they market to us if we can't buy them?
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I zbog čega se onda one nama plasiraju putem marketinga kad ih već ne možemo kupiti?
04:48
The answer is that they expect us to call our doctors the next morning
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Jer se očekuje od nas da ćemo sledećeg jutra pozvati naše lekare
04:52
and ask for our prescriptions to be changed.
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i tražiti da nam se recepti promene.
04:56
Something as dramatic as our identity
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Čak je nešto toliko značajno kao naš identitet
05:00
has now become a matter of choice,
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postalo stvar izbora,
05:02
as this slide is meant to indicate.
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na šta ovaj slajd i ukazuje.
05:06
We don't inherit an identity; we get to invent it.
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Mi ne nasleđujemo identitet, izmišljamo ga.
05:08
And we get to re-invent ourselves as often as we like.
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I možemo ga iznova izmišljati onoliko često koliko nam to odgovara.
05:12
And that means that everyday, when you wake up in the morning,
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A to znači da svakog dana kada se probudite,
05:14
you have to decide what kind of person you want to be.
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treba da odlučite kakva osoba želite da budete.
05:19
With respect to marriage and family,
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Što se tiče braka i porodice,
05:22
there was a time when the default assumption that almost everyone had
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nekada je postojala pretpostavka po kojoj je trebalo da svi
05:28
is that you got married as soon as you could,
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stupe u brak što su pre mogli
05:29
and then you started having kids as soon as you could.
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i onda da počnu da dobijaju decu takođe što su pre mogli.
05:31
The only real choice was who,
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Jedini pravi izbor koji su pravili je bio sa kim,
05:35
not when, and not what you did after.
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ne kada i ne šta će raditi posle.
05:38
Nowadays, everything is very much up for grabs.
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Danas je sve stvar izbora.
05:41
I teach wonderfully intelligent students,
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Predajem izuzetno inteligentnim studentima,
05:44
and I assign 20 percent less work than I used to.
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i dajem im 20 procenata manje zadataka nego što sam to činio ranije.
05:47
And it's not because they're less smart,
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Razlog tome nije to što su manje pametni
05:50
and it's not because they're less diligent.
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ili što su manje savesni.
05:52
It's because they are preoccupied, asking themselves,
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To je iz razloga što su preopterećeni, pitajući se:
05:56
"Should I get married or not? Should I get married now?
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"Treba li da se ženim ili ne? Treba li to da uradim sada
05:58
Should I get married later? Should I have kids first, or a career first?"
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Ili kasnije? Treba li prvo da imam decu ili prvo karijeru?"
06:02
All of these are consuming questions.
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Sva ova pitanja su izuzetno zahtevna.
06:05
And they're going to answer these questions,
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I oni će tražiti odgovore na njih,
06:07
whether or not it means not doing all the work I assign
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bez obzira znači li to da li će ili neće uraditi zadatke koje sam im dao
06:09
and not getting a good grade in my courses.
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i da li će dobro proći na mom ispitu.
06:12
And indeed they should. These are important questions to answer.
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A tako i treba. Jer to su zaista važna pitanja koja zahtevaju odgovore.
06:17
Work -- we are blessed, as Carl was pointing out,
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Posao -- mi smo u situaciji, kao što je Karl naglasio,
06:20
with the technology that enables us
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sa tehnologijom koja nam to omogućava,
06:22
to work every minute of every day from any place on the planet --
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da radimo svakog trenutka svakog dana sa bilo kog mesta na planeti --
06:29
except the Randolph Hotel.
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izuzev iz Randolf hotela.
06:31
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
06:36
There is one corner, by the way,
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Postoji jedan ugao, uzgred budi rečeno,
06:38
that I'm not going to tell anybody about, where the WiFi works.
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koji nikome neću otkriti, gde internet radi.
06:43
I'm not telling you about it because I want to use it.
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Neću nikom reći jer ja želim da ga nesmetano koristim.
06:45
So what this means, this incredible freedom of choice
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Ono što ovo znači, ova neverovatna mogućnost izbora
06:48
we have with respect to work, is that we have to make a decision,
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koju imamo u odnosu na posao, jeste da moramo da donosimo odluke,
06:51
again and again and again,
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opet i opet i opet,
06:53
about whether we should or shouldn't be working.
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o tome da li bi trebalo da radimo ili ne.
06:56
We can go to watch our kid play soccer,
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Možemo otići da gledamo naše dete kako igra fudbal,
06:59
and we have our cell phone on one hip,
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i pri tom držati telefon u jednom džepu,
07:01
and our Blackberry on our other hip,
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Blekberi u drugom
07:03
and our laptop, presumably, on our laps.
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i lap top verovatno u krilu.
07:05
And even if they're all shut off,
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I čak iako su svi oni pogašeni,
07:08
every minute that we're watching our kid mutilate a soccer game,
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svakog trenutka tokom kog gledamo naše dete kako igra utakmicu,
07:10
we are also asking ourselves,
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mi se takođe pitamo:
07:12
"Should I answer this cell phone call?
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"Da li da odgovorim na ovaj poziv?
07:15
Should I respond to this email? Should I draft this letter?"
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Da li da odgovorim na ovaj e-maill? Da li da sačuvam ovo pismo?"
07:17
And even if the answer to the question is "no,"
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Čak i kada je odgovor na sva ova pitanja "ne",
07:20
it's certainly going to make the experience of your kid's soccer game
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to će sigurno uticati da imate potpuno drugačiji doživljaj detetove utakmice
07:23
very different than it would've been.
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nego što bi imali inače.
07:26
So everywhere we look,
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Gde god da se okrenemo,
07:28
big things and small things, material things and lifestyle things,
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bitne i nebitne stvari, materijalne i nematerijalne stvari,
07:31
life is a matter of choice.
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život je stvar izbora.
07:34
And the world we used to live in looked like this.
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A svet u kome smo nekada živeli izgledao je ovako.
07:40
That is to say, there were some choices,
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Postojali su neki izbori,
07:42
but not everything was a matter of choice.
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ali nije sve bilo u njima.
07:44
And the world we now live in looks like this.
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Svet u kome sada živimo izgleda ovako.
07:47
And the question is, is this good news, or bad news?
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Pitanje je da li je to dobro ili loše?
07:53
And the answer is yes.
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Odgovor je da.
07:56
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
07:58
We all know what's good about it,
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Svi znamo šta je dobro u vezi sa tim,
08:00
so I'm going to talk about what's bad about it.
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tako da ću se skoncentrisati na ono što je loše.
08:03
All of this choice has two effects,
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Svaki od izbora koje napravimo ima dva efekta,
08:06
two negative effects on people.
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dva negativna efekta na ljude.
08:09
One effect, paradoxically,
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Jedan, paradoksalno,
08:11
is that it produces paralysis, rather than liberation.
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je taj da izbor uzrokuje zakočenost, pre nego slobodu.
08:16
With so many options to choose from,
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Sa toliko mnogo opcija koje možemo odabrati,
08:18
people find it very difficult to choose at all.
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ljudima postaje teško da se uopšte odluče.
08:22
I'll give you one very dramatic example of this:
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Izneću vam jedan izuzetno dramatičan primer ovoga,
08:25
a study that was done of investments in voluntary retirement plans.
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studiju izvedenu na dobrovoljnim penzionim fondovima.
08:31
A colleague of mine got access to investment records from Vanguard,
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Moja koleginica je dobila pristup izveštaju ulaganja Vangarda,
08:36
the gigantic mutual fund company
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jedne gigantske kompanije za penzione fondove
08:38
of about a million employees and about 2,000 different workplaces.
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koja ima oko milion zaposenih i oko 2000 različitih radnih mesta.
08:42
And what she found is that
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I ono što je saznala jeste da
08:44
for every 10 mutual funds the employer offered,
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na svakih deset fondova koje poslodavac ponudi,
08:47
rate of participation went down two percent.
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stopa učešća pada za dva procenta.
08:52
You offer 50 funds -- 10 percent fewer employees participate
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Ponudite 50 fondova -- 10 procenata je niže učešće zaposlenih
08:56
than if you only offer five. Why?
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nego da ste ponudili pet. Zašto?
09:00
Because with 50 funds to choose from,
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Jer od 50 ponuđenih fondova,
09:02
it's so damn hard to decide which fund to choose
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toliko je prokleto teško da se izabere jedan
09:06
that you'll just put it off until tomorrow.
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da će te odluku ostaviti za sutra.
09:08
And then tomorrow, and then tomorrow,
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I opet onda za sutra i opet sutra,
09:10
and tomorrow, and tomorrow,
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i sutra i sutra,
09:12
and of course tomorrow never comes.
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i naravno, to sutra nikada ne dođe.
09:14
Understand that not only does this mean
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Razumećete da ovo ne samo da znači
09:16
that people are going to have to eat dog food when they retire
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da će ovi ljudi jesti pseću hranu kada se penzionišu
09:18
because they don't have enough money put away,
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jer neće imati dovoljno ušteđenog novca,
09:20
it also means that making the decision is so hard
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to takođe znači da je donošenje odluke toliko teško
09:23
that they pass up significant matching money from the employer.
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da oni propuštaju prilke za ulaganja koje su im ponuđene od strane poslodavca.
09:27
By not participating, they are passing up as much as 5,000 dollars a year
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Time što ne učestvuju u ulaganjima, oni gube oko 5000 dolara po godini
09:31
from the employer, who would happily match their contribution.
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od strane poslodavca, koji bi im rado uplatio doprinose.
09:35
So paralysis is a consequence of having too many choices.
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Tako da je blokada posledica postojanja premnogo izbora.
09:39
And I think it makes the world look like this.
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Mislim da to čini da svet izgleda evo ovako.
09:41
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
09:48
You really want to get the decision right if it's for all eternity, right?
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Sigurno je da želite da donesete ispravnu odluku ako je ona za čitavu večnost, zar ne?
09:52
You don't want to pick the wrong mutual fund, or even the wrong salad dressing.
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Ne želite da izaberete pogrešan penzioni fond, čak ni pogrešan preliv za salatu.
09:55
So that's one effect. The second effect is that
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Tako da je to jedan efekat. Drugi je taj
09:58
even if we manage to overcome the paralysis and make a choice,
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da čak i kada uspemo da prevaziđemo blokadu i napravimo izbor,
10:03
we end up less satisfied with the result of the choice
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završimo manje zadovoljni rezultatima našeg izbora
10:07
than we would be if we had fewer options to choose from.
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nego što bismo bili da smo imali manje izbornih opcija.
10:10
And there are several reasons for this.
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A za to postoji nekoliko razloga.
10:13
One of them is that with a lot of different salad dressings to choose from,
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Jedan od njih jeste taj da sa mnogo različitih preliva za salatu koje možete birati,
10:17
if you buy one, and it's not perfect -- and, you know, what salad dressing is? --
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ukoliko kupite jedan i taj nije savršen -- onda se pitate pa koji je?
10:20
it's easy to imagine that you could have made a different choice
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Lako je zamisliti da ste mogli napraviti drugačiji izbor
10:23
that would have been better. And what happens is
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koji bi možda bio bolji. I ono što se dešava je
10:27
this imagined alternative induces you to regret the decision you made,
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to da vas ova zamišljena alternativa navodi da zažalite zbog donešene odluke,
10:32
and this regret subtracts from the satisfaction you get out of the decision you made,
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i ovo kajanje vam onemogućava da budete zadovoljni napravljenim izborom,
10:36
even if it was a good decision.
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čak i ukoliko je taj izbor bio dobar.
10:39
The more options there are, the easier it is to regret anything at all
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Što više opcija imate, lakše je zažaliti zbog bilo čega
10:42
that is disappointing about the option that you chose.
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i svakako je razočaravajuće po opciju koju ste odabrali.
10:45
Second, what economists call "opportunity costs."
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I drugo, kao što bi ekonomisti rekli - propuštena dobit.
10:48
Dan Gilbert made a big point this morning
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Den Gilbert je izneo dobru poentu jutros
10:50
of talking about how much the way in which we value things
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govoreći o tome koliko vrednovanje stvari
10:55
depends on what we compare them to.
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zavisi od toga sa čim se ta stvar upoređuje.
10:57
Well, when there are lots of alternatives to consider,
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Tako, postoji mnogo alternativa koje valja razmotriti,
11:01
it is easy to imagine the attractive features
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lako je zamisliti atraktivna svojstva
11:04
of alternatives that you reject,
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alternativa koje odbacujete,
11:07
that make you less satisfied with the alternative that you've chosen.
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i to vas čini manje zadovoljnim alternativom koju ste odabrali.
11:12
Here's an example. For those of you who aren't New Yorkers, I apologize.
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Evo primera. Izvinjavam se onima koji nisu iz Njujorka.
11:16
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
11:17
But here's what you're supposed to be thinking.
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Ali evo šta bi trebalo da mislite.
11:19
Here's this couple on the Hamptons.
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Ovo je jedan par u Hemptonu.
11:21
Very expensive real estate.
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Tu su jako skupe nekretnine.
11:23
Gorgeous beach. Beautiful day. They have it all to themselves.
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Fenomenalna plaža. Prelep dan. Imaju sve to za sebe.
11:26
What could be better? "Well, damn it,"
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Ne može biti bolje. "Prokletstvo",
11:28
this guy is thinking, "It's August.
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pomisli ovaj čovek, "avgust je.
11:30
Everybody in my Manhattan neighborhood is away.
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Svi iz mog komšiluka na Menhetnu su nekud otputovali.
11:34
I could be parking right in front of my building."
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Mogao bih parkirati auto tačno ispred zgrade."
11:38
And he spends two weeks nagged by the idea
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I tako provodi dve nedelje mučen idejom
11:41
that he is missing the opportunity, day after day, to have a great parking space.
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da propušta priliku, dan za danom, da ima fenomenalno parking mesto.
11:48
Opportunity costs subtract from the satisfaction we get out of what we choose,
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Propuštene prilike umanjuju zadovoljstvo izborom koji napravimo,
11:52
even when what we choose is terrific.
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čak i kada je ono što smo odabrali sjajno.
11:55
And the more options there are to consider,
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I što je više opcija za razmatranje,
11:57
the more attractive features of these options
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to je više atraktivnih svojstava ovih mogućnosti
11:59
are going to be reflected by us as opportunity costs.
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zbog kojih će nam biti žalije za propuštenom dobiti.
12:03
Here's another example.
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Evo drugog primera.
12:09
Now this cartoon makes a lot of points.
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Ovaj crtež ima višestruku poentu.
12:11
It makes points about living in the moment as well,
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On ističe poentu toga da treba živeti u sadašnjosti i datom trenutku,
12:15
and probably about doing things slowly.
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i verovatno i to da stvari treba raditi lagano.
12:17
But one point it makes is that whenever you're choosing one thing,
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Ali poenta koju takođe iznosi jeste da kad god birate jednu stvar,
12:20
you're choosing not to do other things.
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vi takođe i birate da ne radite ostale.
12:22
And those other things may have lots of attractive features,
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I s obzirom da te druge stvari imaju svojih primamljivih prednosti,
12:24
and it's going to make what you're doing less attractive.
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one čine da ono što ste izabrali deluje manje primamljivo nego što to u suštini jeste.
12:27
Third: escalation of expectations.
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Treće: povećanje očekivanja.
12:29
This hit me when I went to replace my jeans.
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Ovo me je pogodilo kada sam otišao da kupim nove farmerice.
12:32
I wear jeans almost all the time.
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Ja nosim farmerice gotovo stalno.
12:34
And there was a time when jeans came in one flavor,
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I bilo je vreme kada su proizvodili samo jednu vrstu farmerica,
12:37
and you bought them, and they fit like crap,
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i kupiš ih, i one budu užasne,
12:39
and they were incredibly uncomfortable,
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jako neudobne,
12:41
and if you wore them long enough and washed them enough times,
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ali ako ih nosiš dovoljno dugo i dovoljno puta opereš,
12:43
they started to feel OK.
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počneš da se dobro osećaš u njima.
12:45
So I went to replace my jeans after years and years of wearing these old ones,
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I tako sam ja otišao da uzmem nove nakon godina i godina nošenja tih starih,
12:48
and I said, you know, "I want a pair of jeans. Here's my size."
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i rekao sam: "Želim par novih farmerica, ovo je moja veličina."
12:51
And the shopkeeper said,
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A prodavac je rekao,
12:52
"Do you want slim fit, easy fit, relaxed fit?
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"Želite li opušten, zategnut ili komotan kroj?
12:55
You want button fly or zipper fly? You want stonewashed or acid-washed?
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Želite li varijantu sa dugmetom ili rajsfešlusom? Želite li one isprane kamenom ili kiselinom?
12:58
Do you want them distressed?
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Hoćete li da izgledaju isprano?
13:00
You want boot cut, you want tapered, blah blah blah ..." On and on he went.
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Hoćete li da idu preko čizama ili uz nogu, bla bla bla..." Nije prestajao.
13:03
My jaw dropped, and after I recovered, I said,
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Nakon što sam došao sebi od zaprepašćenja, rekao sam:
13:06
"I want the kind that used to be the only kind."
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"Želim onu varijantu koja je nekada bila jedina varijanta."
13:09
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
13:14
He had no idea what that was,
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Nije imao predstavu koji je to model,
13:16
so I spent an hour trying on all these damn jeans,
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pa sam proveo sate isprobavajući sve te proklete farmerice,
13:20
and I walked out of the store -- truth! -- with the best-fitting jeans I had ever had.
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i na kraju sam izašao iz te radnje -- iskreno -- u najudobnijim farmericama koje sam ikada nosio.
13:25
I did better. All this choice made it possible for me to do better.
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Sve te mogućnosti učinile su da napravim jako dobar izbor.
13:29
But I felt worse.
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Ali osećao sam se gore.
13:33
Why? I wrote a whole book to try to explain this to myself. (Laughter)
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Zašto? Napisao sam celu knjigu pokušavajući da to sebi objasnim.
13:37
The reason I felt worse is that,
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Razlog zbog kog sam se osećao loše,
13:45
with all of these options available,
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jeste taj da, sa svim ovim mogućnostima,
13:48
my expectations about how good a pair of jeans should be went up.
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moja očekivanja o tome kako treba da izgleda par farmerica su porasla.
13:54
I had very low --
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Imao sam veoma niska očekivanja.
13:55
I had no particular expectations when they only came in one flavor.
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Nisam imao nikakva posebna očekivanja kada su se proizvodile u samo jednom obliku.
13:58
When they came in 100 flavors, damn it,
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Ali kada su se pojavile u sto vrsta, do đavola,
14:00
one of them should've been perfect.
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jedne od njih mora da su bile savršene.
14:02
And what I got was good, but it wasn't perfect.
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I ono što sam uzeo je bilo dobro, ali nije bilo savršeno.
14:04
And so I compared what I got to what I expected,
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I tako sam uporedio ono što sam dobio sa onim što sam očekivao,
14:07
and what I got was disappointing in comparison to what I expected.
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i to što sam dobio je bilo razočaravajuće u poređenju sa onim što sam očekivao.
14:10
Adding options to people's lives
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Dodavanjem opcija
14:13
can't help but increase the expectations people have
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dobija se samo to da dolazi do povećavanja očekivanja koja ljudi imaju
14:17
about how good those options will be.
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o tome koliko dobre te opcije treba da budu.
14:19
And what that's going to produce is less satisfaction with results,
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I ono što se događa na taj način jeste da će ljudi biti manje zadovoljni rezultatima,
14:22
even when they're good results.
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čak i ako su oni dobri.
14:25
Nobody in the world of marketing knows this,
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Niko u svetu marketinga ne zna za ovo.
14:28
because if they did, you wouldn't all know what this was about.
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Jer da oni znaju, onda vi ne biste.
14:34
The truth is more like this.
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Istina je više nalik ovome.
14:37
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
14:40
The reason that everything was better back when everything was worse
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Razlog zbog kog je sve bilo bolje kada je sve bilo gore
14:44
is that when everything was worse,
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jeste taj da kada je sve bilo gore,
14:46
it was actually possible for people to have experiences that were a pleasant surprise.
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bilo je moguće da ljudi dožive neka prijatna iznenađujuća iskustva.
14:51
Nowadays, the world we live in -- we affluent, industrialized citizens,
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Sada, u svetu u kome živimo -- mi imućni, industrijalizovani građani,
14:55
with perfection the expectation --
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sa očekivanjima dovedenim do savršenstva --
14:57
the best you can ever hope for is that stuff is as good as you expect it to be.
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najbolje čemu se možemo nadati jeste da stvari ispunjavaju naša očekivanja.
15:01
You will never be pleasantly surprised
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Nikada nećete biti prijatno iznenađeni
15:03
because your expectations, my expectations, have gone through the roof.
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jer su vaša očekivanja, moja očekivanja, porasla do vrha.
15:07
The secret to happiness -- this is what you all came for --
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Tajna sreće -- to je ono za šta ste došli --
15:10
the secret to happiness is low expectations.
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tajna sreće je u niskim očekivanjima.
15:16
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
15:18
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
15:24
I want to say -- just a little autobiographical moment --
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Želim da kažem -- samo mali autobiografski momenat --
15:28
that I actually am married to a wife,
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da sam oženjen ženom,
15:31
and she's really quite wonderful.
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koja je zaista predivna.
15:33
I couldn't have done better. I didn't settle.
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Nisam mogao bolje. Nisam se samo opustio.
15:36
But settling isn't always such a bad thing.
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Ali opuštanje nije uvek tako loša stvar.
15:39
Finally, one consequence of buying a bad-fitting pair of jeans
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Konačno, jedna od posledica kupovine neudobnog para farmerica
15:44
when there is only one kind to buy
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kada imate samo tu jednu vrstu koju možete kupiti
15:47
is that when you are dissatisfied, and you ask why,
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jeste da kada ste nezadovoljni i pitate se zašto,
15:49
who's responsible, the answer is clear:
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ko je kriv, odgovor je jasan.
15:51
the world is responsible. What could you do?
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Svet je odgovoran. Šta se tu može?
15:54
When there are hundreds of different styles of jeans available,
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A kada postoji na stotine dostupnih različitih vrsta farmerica,
15:57
and you buy one that is disappointing,
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i vi kupite nezadovoljavajuću,
16:00
and you ask why, who's responsible?
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i pitate se zašto, ko je odgovoran?
16:02
It is equally clear that the answer to the question is you.
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Kristalno je jasno da ste to vi.
16:07
You could have done better.
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Mogli ste bolje.
16:09
With a hundred different kinds of jeans on display,
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Sa stotinu različitih vrsta farmerica u izlogu,
16:12
there is no excuse for failure.
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nema izgovora za neuspeh.
16:14
And so when people make decisions,
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I tako kada ljudi donose odluke,
16:16
and even though the results of the decisions are good,
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čak i kada su rezultati izbora dobri,
16:19
they feel disappointed about them;
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osećaju razočarenje zbog njih,
16:22
they blame themselves.
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krive sebe.
16:24
Clinical depression has exploded in the industrial world in the last generation.
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Klinička depresija je eksplodirala industrijskim svetom tokom prethodne generacije.
16:28
I believe a significant -- not the only, but a significant -- contributor
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Verujem da je značajan -- ne jedini, ali značajan faktor
16:32
to this explosion of depression, and also suicide,
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ovom porastu depresije, takođe i samoubistava,
16:35
is that people have experiences that are disappointing
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taj da ljudi imaju iskustva koja su razočaravajuća
16:38
because their standards are so high,
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jer su im standardi očekivanja previsoki.
16:40
and then when they have to explain these experiences to themselves,
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I kada onda treba da objasne sebi ova iskustva,
16:43
they think they're at fault.
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misle da su oni krivi za neuspeh.
16:45
And so the net result is that we do better in general, objectively,
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I tako rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da mi objektivno napredujemo,
16:49
and we feel worse.
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ali se osećamo gore.
16:52
So let me remind you.
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Dozvolite da vas podsetim.
16:55
This is the official dogma, the one that we all take to be true,
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Ovo je zvanična dogma, ona koju svi mi uzimamo kao istinitu,
16:59
and it's all false. It is not true.
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a ona je pogrešna. Ona nije tačna.
17:03
There's no question that some choice is better than none,
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Ne dovodi se u pitanje to da je neki izbor bolji nego nikakav,
17:07
but it doesn't follow from that that more choice is better than some choice.
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ali iz toga ne sledi da je previše izbora bolje nego malo izbora.
17:12
There's some magical amount. I don't know what it is.
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Postoji neka tajanstvena količina. Ne znam koja je to.
17:15
I'm pretty confident that we have long since passed the point
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Ali sam prilično siguran da smo odavno prešli tu granicu
17:18
where options improve our welfare.
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do koje su nam izbori poboljšavali život.
17:20
Now, as a policy matter -- I'm almost done --
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E sada, što se tiče politike stvari na dalje -- skoro sam završio --
17:23
as a policy matter, the thing to think about is this:
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stvar o kojoj treba razmisliti je sledeća.
17:27
what enables all of this choice in industrial societies is material affluence.
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Ono što omogućava sve te izbore u industrijskom društvu jeste materijalno bogatstvo.
17:34
There are lots of places in the world,
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Postoji mnogo mesta na svetu,
17:36
and we have heard about several of them,
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čuli smo za neka,
17:38
where their problem is not that they have too much choice.
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gde problem nije u prevelikoj količini izbora.
17:40
Their problem is that they have too little.
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Njihov problem je da ih imaju premalo.
17:43
So the stuff I'm talking about is the peculiar problem
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Tako da ono o čemu ja govorim je problem
17:46
of modern, affluent, Western societies.
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modernih, imućnih, zapadnih društava.
17:49
And what is so frustrating and infuriating is this:
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I ono što najviše frustrira je:
17:53
Steve Levitt talked to you yesterday about how
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Stiv Levit vam je juče govorio o tome kako
17:55
these expensive and difficult-to-install child seats don't help. It's a waste of money.
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ova skupa i za montiranje komplikovana dečja sedišta ne pomažu. To je bacanje para.
18:06
What I'm telling you is that these expensive, complicated choices --
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Ono što vam govorim jeste da ovi skupi, komplikovani izbori --
18:10
it's not simply that they don't help.
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ne samo da ne pomažu.
18:12
They actually hurt.
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Oni bukvalno nanose štetu.
18:14
They actually make us worse off.
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Čine da se osećamo grozno.
18:17
If some of what enables people in our societies to make all of the choices we make
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Kada bi to što ljudima u našem društvu omogućava postojanje svih tih izbora
18:22
were shifted to societies in which people have too few options,
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nekako bilo raspoređeno na ona društva koja imaju svega nekoliko opcija,
18:27
not only would those people's lives be improved,
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ne samo da bi životi tih ljudi bili poboljšani,
18:29
but ours would be improved also.
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već bi i naši bili takođe poboljšani.
18:32
This is what economists call a "Pareto-improving move."
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To je ono što ekonomisti nazivaju Pareto princip.
18:35
Income redistribution will make everyone better off -- not just poor people --
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Raspodela bogatstva bi učinila da svima bude bolje -- ne samo siromašnim ljudima -
18:40
because of how all this excess choice plagues us.
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zato što prevelik izbor ima štetan uticaj na nas.
18:44
So to conclude. You're supposed to read this cartoon,
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Za kraj. Treba da pročitate ovaj crtež,
18:48
and, being a sophisticated person, say,
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i budući da ste inteligentna osoba, reći ćete:
18:50
"Ah! What does this fish know?
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"Oh! Šta ova riba zna?
18:52
You know, nothing is possible in this fishbowl."
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Ništa nije moguće u ovom akvarijumu."
18:56
Impoverished imagination, a myopic view of the world --
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Siromašna mašta, kakav kratkovid pogled na svet --
18:58
and that's the way I read it at first.
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to je način na koji sam i ja mislio kada sam prvi put pogledao.
19:00
The more I thought about it, however,
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Ali što sam više razmišljao o tome,
19:02
the more I came to the view that this fish knows something.
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to sam više naginjao ka gledištu da ta riba možda i zna nešto.
19:06
Because the truth of the matter is that
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Jer je istina u tome
19:08
if you shatter the fishbowl so that everything is possible,
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da ako razbijete ovaj akvarijum i učinite da sve postane moguće,
19:13
you don't have freedom. You have paralysis.
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nećete dobiti slobodu. Dobićete blokadu.
19:16
If you shatter this fishbowl so that everything is possible,
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Ako razbijete akvarijum tako da sve postane moguće,
19:19
you decrease satisfaction.
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umanjićete zadovoljstvo.
19:23
You increase paralysis, and you decrease satisfaction.
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Povećaćete zakočenost, a smanjiti zadovoljstvo.
19:27
Everybody needs a fishbowl.
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Svima treba jedna kugla za ribe.
19:29
This one is almost certainly too limited --
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Ova je doduše previše limitirana --
19:31
perhaps even for the fish, certainly for us.
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čak i za ribe, a posebno za nas.
19:34
But the absence of some metaphorical fishbowl is a recipe for misery,
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Ali nepostojanje nekog metaforičkog akvarijuma je recept za bedu,
19:38
and, I suspect, disaster.
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i pretpostavljam, za katastrofu.
19:41
Thank you very much.
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Hvala vam puno.
19:43
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Barry Schwartz - PsychologistBarry Schwartz studies the link between economics and psychology, offering startling insights into modern life. Lately, working with Ken Sharpe, he's studying wisdom.
Why you should listen
In his 2004 book The Paradox of Choice, Barry Schwartz tackles one of the great mysteries of modern life: Why is it that societies of great abundance — where individuals are offered more freedom and choice (personal, professional, material) than ever before — are now witnessing a near-epidemic of depression? Conventional wisdom tells us that greater choice is for the greater good, but Schwartz argues the opposite: He makes a compelling case that the abundance of choice in today's western world is actually making us miserable.
Infinite choice is paralyzing, Schwartz argues, and exhausting to the human psyche. It leads us to set unreasonably high expectations, question our choices before we even make them and blame our failures entirely on ourselves. His relatable examples, from consumer products (jeans, TVs, salad dressings) to lifestyle choices (where to live, what job to take, who and when to marry), underscore this central point: Too much choice undermines happiness.
Schwartz's previous research has addressed morality, decision-making and the varied inter-relationships between science and society. Before Paradox he published The Costs of Living, which traces the impact of free-market thinking on the explosion of consumerism -- and the effect of the new capitalism on social and cultural institutions that once operated above the market, such as medicine, sports, and the law.
Both books level serious criticism of modern western society, illuminating the under-reported psychological plagues of our time. But they also offer concrete ideas on addressing the problems, from a personal and societal level.
Schwartz is the author of the TED Book, Why We Work.
Barry Schwartz | Speaker | TED.com